Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
00:29 – bet365 Promo
01:22 – Maverick McNealy
02:36 – Seamus Power
03:53 – Keith Mitchell
04:42 – Mark Hubbard
06:11 – Nick Dunlap
07:25 – Sungjae Im
09:33 – Michael Kim
10:24 – Lucas Glover
12:36 – Jacob Bridgeman
13:44 – Justin Lower
15:23 – Patton Kizzire
16:45 – Nate Lashley
18:14 – Jordan Speith
19:12 – Davis Thompson
21:42 – J.T. Poston
22:49 – Jason Day
23:43 – Kelly Kraft
24:44 – bet365 Promo
25:28 – More Golf Picks
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welcome to links and locks action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy wack and I will be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartori for these Best Bets episodes Tony and I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the John Deere classic before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and luck podcast is present Ed by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at that 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply okay Tony we’re on the first T here for our John Deere classic Best Bets get us started all right I’m gonna go after a guy targeted right away last week too and that’s Maverick mcneel at 30 to1 um I had him at the same price last week at the The Rock and mortgage and although we didn’t get to the window with him I believe the value is still this week uh especially when you’re keeping the same number against an even weaker field uh he’s been playing a great brand of golf lately finished 23rd at the PJ Championship 17th at the Charles Schwab seventh at the Canadian open and 44th last week so a little dip last week which is why I think we’re still getting 30 but that doesn’t take away how well he’s been playing recently he has not lost true total Strokes in 13 consecutive tournaments of which Shing data was available he boasts five top or sorry five top 17 finishes over that stretch he continues to knock on the door of his first tour Victory and TBC Deer Run just up nicely for him to do just that you know it’s a course that rewards aggressive players due to the tournament basically being a birdie competition every year and that’s why I think McNeely should succeed this week because he ranks 14th on tour and fourth him on the field in birdie average this season finished eth here in 2022 that was the last time he was here he is a much more well-rounded golfer now than he was then so at 30 to1 Maverick mcne is my first Target I’m going to stay in the outright market and go with Sheamus power 80 to one that number got hit a little bit yesterday um I imagine he’s a a popular bet for for many of the same reasons that I’m about to outline right now I still like him all the way down to 50 or 60 to1 which are still widely available on bet 365 using that enhanced win uh Sheamus power just just raises his Baseline on these types of golf courses he’s one of the better wedge players in this field he’s one of the better backg grass Putters in this field so anytime you’re on a golf course like TBC Deer Run where it the SK scoring conditions are a lot easier the name of the game is Spike with your wedges and Spike with your putter Sheamus power is always in strong consideration for me he’s coming off a 20th Place finish at The Travelers Championship where he gained Strokes in all four major categories he’s played incredibly well at TPC de run in the past with two top 20 finishes in his last two starts uh I just think this is far too high of a number on one of the best birdie makers in this field one of the best players in this field on these types of setups absolutely I’m gonna uh go after for my next outright guy I’m gonna go after Keith Mitchell at 30 to one so putting remains a concern for him and we just talked about how putting can be important at this course but he’s shown that he can get away with it here even despite poor putting so in 2018 he finished seventh here and he lost Strokes putting that week so there’s still an Avenue to score here because I mean the course is just so easy but there is an Avenue to score here even if your putter is legging behind and that’s why I think Mitchell is still a viable option at 30 to one the rest of his game has been awesome he’s uh we’ve seen him post eight top 20 finishes over his past 16 tournaments he also ranks third him on the field uh in birdie average this season so you know you can hand handle the low-scoring type of golf tournament that this venue produces each and every year so at 30 to1 Keith Mitchell is my second target I’m gonna give us one more outright and go with Mark Hubbert 70 to one uh similar for the reasons that I outlined with power I’m just looking to Target these players that are great wedge players great B grass Putters can Spike um Can Spike on approach which hubard can do at time like he’s had performance is this season where he’s gained over seven strokes on approach the putting can get hot as well and that’s basically the formula that I’m looking for at John Deere this week can you hit your wedges close do you have the ability to get hot inside 15 feet Hubbert checks both of those boxes for me and it should not come as a surprise that he’s played very well at this golf course in the past hubber finished sixth at this tournament last year uh he’s played very well this season he’s been a very very consistent cup maker and he always seems to raise his Baseline as well as I mentioned on a lot of these easier golf courses he’s a great backg grass putter uh great on softer setups he’s had a lot of success on these uh Midwestern summer time B grass birdie Fest I just think 70 to1 is a is an awfully big number for what my numbers have as one of the most consistent birdie makers in this field one of the strongest options when when it comes to wedge play and putting so Mark hubard 70 to1 as an outright play for me I love that play I’m my next outright winner is going to be Nick Dunlap at 40 to1 um he shocked the golf world by winning as an Amer at the American Express earlier this season so the question that kind of followed was was that a flukey result or is this guy like going to be um a real prospect on tour so immediately following that he had a bit of a rough stretch but the past couple of months suggest that it was an N fluke and he’s he he’s going to be a solid player he’s only 20 years old but he’s made the weekend seven of his past 10 events four top 25 finishes over that stretch that just culminated with a 10th Place finish of last week’s rocket mortgage which was his best performance since the American Express so his game’s trending back upward and what I really liked about last week because he showed a really um strong allaround presence with this golf game right there’s maybe there’s nothing that like went crazy in his golf game in terms of like he didn’t like surpass the whole field in a metric but he wasn’t lagging behind in anything either was just a solid all around performance and the only reason that he’s 40 to1 this week in my opinion is because he’s never played at TPC Deer Run but that doesn’t really concern me he never played professionally at Pete die at the Pete die Stadium Course either before winning the American Express so that doesn’t much scare me as much I think as it is baked into that 40 to1 number so dlap at 40 to1 is my next Target I’m GNA take us into the top 10 market and go with sun JM plus 190 top 10 these odds were little bit better before the Klay withdrawal um you know even when Klay was in the field I was still planning on targeting and finding some exposure to Sun JM I don’t know if I have the ability to get to that 16 15 14 to one number to win this golf tournament and in a tournament that historically has been pretty variance based there’s a lot of putt luuck involved that you have to have at uh at TPC Deer Run but in terms of who I believe is the safest option to play well based on what his floor is based on the way that he’s striking the ball right now particularly with his irons um I I really think that sunjay is going to have a strong week and I I don’t always love betting the the favorite to finish top 10 and you know obviously that works out a lot of the time when it’s Scotty Sheffer but because of the weakness of the field like getting almost two to one on sunj top 10 even after the Klay withdrawal that’s a number I’m just not willing to pass up he is coming off a third place finish at The Travelers Championship where he gained Strokes in all four major categories he’s got four top 10 finishes in his last six starts and the thing that leaves me most encouraged about sunjay is that his approach play has struggled all year that has been one of the weaker aspects of his game and he’s coming off the best his best approach performance of the season last week at The Travelers Championship where he gained over five Strokes on approach so uh I trust his driver I trust his putter I trust his short game if sunj is starting to find form with his irons um I think that he should Cakewalk here into the top 10 and maybe even do a little bit better than that so plus 190 sunj M to finish in the top 10 at the John Deere classic I like that and my final I’m going to go back to the out right for one last time and M there’s a bit of a long shot here but it’s Michael Kim at 110 to one so obviously he won here in 2018 so the squarest handicap you can ever make is well he won here so he can do it again especially at 110 to one but I want to Hound on something that you just talked about and that the field this week is absolutely terrible so I think the osor is pretty wide open to take more long shots this week at least or even just the guys in the middle of the pack or to the 100 to 120 to one range it’s just this is outside of alter’s fence this has got to be the weakest field we’ve seen on tour this season but Kim’s also not only is he won year but he’s also in great form he has four top 20 finishes over his past seven tournaments he also ranks third on tour this season in birdie average trailing only Benny an and Scotty sheffler in that category considering these variables I don’t quite understand why he’s as long as hard nintend to one so that’s definitely my favorite long shot this week in the outright Market I’m gonna take us back to the top 10 market and go with as you mentioned another former Champion here at the John Deere I’m going to go with Lucas Glover plus 470 to finish top 10 Glover has some of the strongest course history in this entire field obviously he won this event in the last three years he’s also got a number of other strong finishes including another top 15 finish last year uh and you look at like the formula that I’ve talked about already in terms of what I want to see to win this type of tournament you need to spike on approach and you need to get hot with the putter uh Glover is far more in the the first category than the second category in terms of what I trust like he is a far better iron player than he is a putter but we’ve seen him have a ton of success on these greens in the past something about these greens just seem to click with Lucas Glover and he remains this year uh particularly in this weaker field a top five approach player in this field he is one of the best wedge players uh one of the strongest in this entire field one of the highest ranking in this entire field in proximity from 100 to 150 yards even if we don’t see some Elite Performance from Glover with the putter uh you know even something on the plus two plus three range he won this tournament gaining three stroke putting he really doesn’t need to do much more than that because of how strong the iron play is and how many chances that he is going to consistently give himself and I just think almost 5 to one on a top 10 for Lucas Glover who is basically in the mix at this tournament nearly every other year over a large sample size um that’s an easy one for me he can get by here on the strength of his iron player alone make a few putts and he may end up winning the thing again so I’m going with Lucas Glover plus 470 to finish in the top 10 and give another strong performance in the Quad Cities love it I’m going to stay in the top 10 Market as well and take a another little bit of a dart throw here but Jacob Bridgeman at nine to one finish in the top 10 so this guy’s very very unproven on tour so far but I think he’s just a solid flyer to take he’s made the weekend in three consecutive tournaments one of those was a 14th Place finish at the Canadian open if he can finish 14th against that field I think he can finished in the top 10 against this field I don’t think I don’t think he has a stealing to win this tournament but I think he can finish in that 8 to 10 range if he puts together a solid week like he did in Canada a and the reason why I think that could happen here is because low-scoring events should set up well for bridan he’s 24th on T in birdie average this season he’s still young Prospect does not have a lot of T experience yet but this is a guy he won multiple times on the cor fairy tour so he’s a proven winner yes not at this stage we still proven winner in the lad to get to this stage and I don’t think his ceiling is there yet but he’s still a very solid young Prospect and I think think he has the potential to post a top 10 finish at least more so than the nine to1 odds would suggest I like that play uh bridan was on my radar last week as well he’s starting to play some really good golf um I’m going to take us into the top 20 market and go with Justin low plus 450 top 20 this is a player uh that I am often on I was on him last week he shot a round of even par in the final round to finish just outside of the top 20 almost casing a nice top 20 for us last week I’m going right back to the well with Justin low again plus 450 top 20 as I mentioned listen low is one of the pound-for-pound best Putters in this field and he also has the ability to spike with his irons he’s a fairly solid approach player as well he’s not as Elite on approach as he is with his putter um but again those are the two most important things at the John Deere Classic this week iron play and hunting um keeping the ball in play off the te and salary these Fairways are fairly wide you’re going to have to lean on your short game just a little bit but not too much because the greens in regulation percentage is so high uh laow is just one of those guys that Indies B grass birdie Fest over the summer be a bunch of strong finishes at the rocket mortgage as well um you can just always count on him to gain a bunch of Strokes putting uh he gained over five Strokes putting again last week at the rocket mortgage um that is a Formula that will play incredibly well at the John Deer again give me one of the best pure Putters in this field on a golf course that heavily emphasizes putting to finish in the top 20 plus 450 on Justin low I’m gonna stay in the top 20 market and right around the same odds too I’m going to go after Patton kazy at plus 550 um again we keep how how much is going to be at birdie Fest this week cuz H’s the second most birdie heavy golfer in this field he ranks ninth on tour this season in birdie average um he’s an aggressive player and that kills him when it’s tougher tougher events but that’s why he thrives when it’s um a type of event that we’re going to see this week at DPC deun he finished 16th here in 2022 and 11th in 2021 so if you combine that solid course history with his recent form another top 20 finish in this tournament should not be surprising he’s finished inside the top 20 in two of his past three events this season he’s gained um over he’s gained 1.17 or more true total Strokes in each of those two performances but he’s demonstrating a healthy balance of accurate ball striking and a solid short game like you’ve been talking about um all day so his main issues distance off the tea TBC tbcd runs it’s not the shortest course either but it’s also not the longest I don’t think distance of the is going to really hurt anyone this week it’s so easy just to kind of find the green with your iron play anyway here so if you’re taking that part out of kazy’s game which is really has been his only weakness this season then he’s that’s such a good course for him so kazy top 20 at plus 550 at bet 365 is where I’m going to go I like that play he uh he just missed the cut for me as a potential long shot so I’m glad you were able to include him I’m going to go with uh another top 20 play plus 375 Nate Lashley this is another player that I am always seemed to find myself on on these types of setups uh I was on him last week at the rocket mortgage he finished top 25 he’s obviously a former winner at the rocket Mortgage in the past he has had a couple nice top 30 finishes already at the John Deere classic as well uh and these are kind of the golf courses that you want to play Lashley like Pebble Beach rocket mortgage John Deere classic all these golf courses that have an incredibly High plurality of wed shots um and you know a high greens and regulation percentage require some spike putting this is last Jam his skill set uh is very similar to a lot of the players that I’ve talked about before it’s very similar to Mark hubber it’s very similar to Justin laow where these guys that have the ability to spike with the flat stick and with the putter we have seen Nate Lashley win Midwestern Ben grass birdy Fest in the past where he gained over 10 Strokes putting and spiked with his irons as well uh like I mentioned played well last week at the rocket mortgage he has a couple high-end finishes this year I just like him as a nice boom robust top 20 finish this week at plus 375 yeah absolutely love that uh I’m going to take us to the first round leader Market I’m going to go after Jordan speed at 35 to one this is just a way for me to be financially tied to one of the tournament favorites that’s more generous than a payout of 20 to1 which is what he is in the outright Market that number is too short for my liking especially with his pretty poor recent form but his ceiling is still higher than 99% of this field he’s a two-time winner of this event and is clearly the biggest household name in the field yeah again he’s been pretty terrible for his standard since the Masters but that’s why we’re catching a long number here and his skill set is again just it’s higher than 99% the field when the when his game is on his game has not been on so that’s why I’m only trying to take a flyer on him in the first round leader Market but if he if there’s any place he’s going to figure it out it’s going to be at a venue where he’s a two-time winner finished seventh another time he’s been here he has not been here since he won in 2015 so I think he’s using this week as a get right week um a confidence booster uh for him moving forward so I expect a strong start out speed on Thursday I am going to stick in the first round leader Market um two plays I like I’ll go first with Davis Thompson 40 to1 first round later I mean you know I considered him for an outright I was on him as an outright last week at the rocket mortgage he finished T2 um seemed like he had a a decent chance if he he could just get one more coming down the stretch on Sunday I just love the way that Davis Thompson is playing right now I think he’s incredibly close to getting that first PGA Tour Victory he’s just playing great golf on all different types of golf courses I mean he finished top 10 at Pinehurst and then finished second at the rocket mortgage um I can’t think of two dramatically different golf courses both in required skill set and agronomically that just shows me that Thompson is is course agnostic like he’s just one of the best players in this field straight up and I also love his performance in round ones like one of the things that I really like to filter out when I’m diving into the first round leader Market is not just my initial course fit but I like to look at um round one performance historically who are the guys that get off to hot starts and Davis Thompson Rick second in this entire field in first round scoring average I’m getting to the player that ranks first next but Davis Thompson um always seems to get off to a hot start in these tournaments um he’s just playing incredibly well across the board gained over three Strokes in both ball striking categories last week so Davis Thompson 40 to1 first round leader well keep it nice and short that was also my next first round leader play as well we are both on him outright last week so I was really I was on him and Ry last week so I had two guys finish T2 last week which is a pretty tough pill to swallow but anyways Davis Thompson he’s carrying a solid momentum another good week last week he had one of the best rounds of the day on Sunday last week with that 68 as he made that final push and that’s why I like him this week I think carry that momentum he’s playing so well on Sunday so if he just keep that hot hand going he should have no issue leading after Thursday um I’m not going to repeat everything you just said the one thing I just want to add finally is that this guy finished Ninth at Pinehurst against the US Open field if he can do that he can win any round against this field this week so as um 40 to1 I’m also on Davis Thompson in the first round leader Market love that uh glad glad that we are both on Thompson hopefully uh hopefully he can get off to a hot start once again my final first round leader play is JT Poston 50 to one another uh former winner of the John Deere classic uh Poston is just one of the most prolific birdie makers in this entire field um he ranks fourth in this field and birdie or better percentage on easier golf courses he’s another one of those players that just seems to play his best golf um on easier setups in the summertime on B Grass Golf Courses he’s also played well at TPC River Highlands he’s played well at Detroit Golf Club obviously he’s a former winner at John dere classic and as I alluded to earlier JT Poston is the number one player in this field over the last year in round one scoring performance he is he always seems to get off to a hot start so I am rolling with JT Poston at a big number of 50 to one to be your first round leader at the John Deere classic and then yeah and then so for my final play I got Jason day in the first round leader market right around the same number I’m at 55 to one uh his putter has been on fire he’s gained true Strokes on the greens in 12 of his past 13 tournaments he’s got three top 10 finishes over that stretch as he continues to flirt with winning however I just simply right now trust him more on Thursday than I do on Sunday um he’s played here five times in his care he’s made the weekend all five times and he has two top 15 finishes over that so I’m not worried about the course fit for him um in fact low screen event should suit day well saying they ranks 33rd on tour of the Season birdie average and like you say how you always do this when you target your first round leaders you filter out who who does well in the first round uh relative to the other three day has been a fast start of this season he ranks 18th on tour and eighth them on this field specifically in first round scoring average so for my final play of the tournament I’m going Jason Dave first round leader at 55 to one I will finish this off with a Longshot top 40 bet in Kelly craft plus 250 top 40 uh I was on him last week as well at the rocket mortgage he came up short but has that top 20 finish that I’m looking for earlier this season at the Byron Nelson uh a comp course that I’m looking at a lot this week in terms of the B grass Agronomy uh in terms of the fact that you need to hit your wedges and long irons close and make a bunch of putts uh this is the type of setup that I’m looking for with craft he’s a very accurate driver of the ball he keeps the ball in play off the tea he can get hot with those irons he’s a great putter inside 15 ft uh Plus plus 250 to just finish in the top 40 Market that is a great number on Kelly craft uh and that will do it for our Best Bets episode for the John Deere classic before we get out of here a final reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your weddings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at at 365 must be 21 or older in present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as our reminder our action experts Spencer agar and Nick brwi return with host Roberto aruo tomorrow for our John Deere classic betting preview right here on the lyx and loocks podcast so for Tony Sartori I’m your host Andy lack and we’ll see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast presented by bet 365
