The Golfbet team is diving into the historical PGA TOUR stats and database to find out which key stats previous winners of the John Deere Classic excelled in. We’re looking at course history vs. recent form, Strokes Gained at TPC Deere Run, important nuggets about the course and relevant data from past events at TPC Deere Run.
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key stats how to pick a winner at the John Deere classic where sep straka JT Poston Lucas Glover all former winners what do they all have in common and did their course form need to reflect how they won and maybe some recent history we got to get into the course at Deer Run what are some of the holes that you got to look out for when picking your winners but we got to start with this your winner has to be fantastic with the putter this week the last eight winners gained an average of 6 and 1/2 almost 6 and 1/2 Strokes on the field in putting over the four rounds and Benny B here on key stats last week it was hot putter but these summer months really seem like if you’re not rolling the putter extremely well you ain’t winning go low or go home go low or you’re gone as I like to say you got to get low you got to go with the putter uh you you know you saw there if you don’t get multiple rounds under P if you don’t get it hot with the flat stick you’re going to get behind SE strier was an outlier he had a slow start last year every other year you’ve had to go lights out from the start you need five six under a round otherwise you put yourself under pressure to go for a 59 or a 60 or a 61 which can be done at TPC Deer Run but is difficult to do when you need to do it uh so yeah look you’ve got to putt well look for the good Putters this week those guys are going to get it done just go back what yesterday we saw when the crunch time came y you’ve been putting well you still have to make that last putt to win and old actually his first three putt of the whole week jez time for him to lose that tournament which is a real shame for him uh but it showed he was putting great but you needed to put that through 72 holes if you’re new to us here on YouTube hit that subscribe button what we do with this key stats video is we take you through the most important stats at that course for past winners and what they all did similarly well so you can kind of get an idea of who you want to pick this week benett just mentioned SE sta as an outlier there is one reason Ben why he was an outlier you’ve got to be playing your best golf all four days you got to go low in the 60s 100% look it’s past 71 there but you still need to be in the 60s if you want to have any chance Striker started with an overpow round the only player since the tournament went there in 2000 that’s been able to do that and go on to win uh as we said before what 21 under the last 10 years is your average so that’s 5 under and a bit more 6 on another day that you’ve got to get every single time you go out there and they’re the last stat there that you’ve got among the top 10 finishers over the last 5 years I think it is 88% of all their rounds are in the 60s so it’s only the odd 70 here or there which is under par but you need to be under par if you want to contend you got to go low you got to come out out of the blocks uh it took it took a Monumental 3 days from strucker to rebound from an overpar round that sort of pressure is not what you want uh yes it can be done but it’s it’s an outlier the rest of the guys went from the word go panel to the medal from day one you do that you’re a chance Steve Stricker obviously won a three in a row here at one stage you see guys like Zack Johnson when they were back in their day uh playing well they knew that they just had to go for birdies it’s a birdie Fest that’s what we do in the summer on the PJ tour we just go for birdies go For Broke look for guys with a lot of rounds in the 60s on this season and look you don’t need to pick the best statistical putter on the PGA tour you don’t need to go down that list and say well my guy’s 45th he’s 50th I don’t think he can get it done it’s who you believe can get hot with the putter on a random week because that’s what really matters and then we had a second big key stat this week because there was an eye popping number when it cames to came to Greens in regulation this is all since 2019 the winners averaged seventh in Greens in regulation the week that they won here staka was first last year JT potion was was fourth and among everybody who finished inside the top two including ties since 2019 there were seven of them four of those runner-ups who finished T2 or better ranked inside the top five so yes you got to hit the greens you want to hit it close but it’s getting yourself in position Ben that’s what you always say in position to make your putts you have to get there first right you can’t allow yourself to miss those greens if you want to make a bunch of birdies yeah we saw the odd guy last week like Min Wu chipping a a couple of times but that is pressure you don’t want to put on your game you need to hit the greens and then get that hot putter rolling it’s not rocket science when it comes to good golf in the summer on the PGA tour you you’ve got to just keep giving yourself multiple chances multiple times looking at birdies and then you have to not get frustrated when you miss a few uh we know another guy on Sunday who started to miss a few and let that get in his head and not win the tournament and cam young uh you can’t allow that to happen you have to stay positive you have to keep rolling The Rock to keep hitting those greens keep a positive attitude and you’ll be amongst the guys going low at tpcd run a lot like last week where you don’t want to say the driver was not important you got to keep the ball in play but driving the ball off the tee here not nearly as important as the vast majority of some other courses on tour your player needs to have great irons and he’s got to step up with the putter when he needs to now how about this course in some specific details about it of course Michael Kim we referenced that 13 and a half Strokes gained on the Green in 2018 when he won at 27 under par we know that but how about finishing strong what does that mean Benny B well on both sides of the course the two hardest holes basically over the last 12 years have been the ninth and the 18th holes and so obviously if you start on the 10th green you finish on the ninth and if you if you start at the at the first hole you finish on the 18th like for the whole weekend so all of your rounds whether they be first second third fourth round are going going to finish with a really difficult hole the difficult par fours for this course you know in fact I think the Ninth rank’s near one of the toughest on tour most years which is strange for a course that yields as I said the odd 61 60 59 uh watches Etc but the 9th and the 18th give guys plenty to think about and you can imagine uh if you’re finishing up your round and you you know end with a bogey or a double bogey you you lose your streak of birdies off that it makes you stew on it for the next 24 hours or next 8 hours whatever it is before you go out and play again uh it can really mess with guys Minds if they have a poor finish so the players that go well right through the round finish off those 29 uh with the strong finish whether it be just a par that might be enough uh are going to you know do much much better mentally and then physically going into the next round I mean think about it if 24 or 25 under is going to win this thing and you finish a round with a bogey you’re losing half a stroke to the field there you might be losing another half a stroke when it comes to your mentality like you had mentioned for the next round so you want to find guys who can finish their rounds strong and who’s known to finish their rounds strong okay let’s look at course history versus recent form what this is is looking at the last three winners at the John Deere SE straa JT Poston and Lucas Glover the white bar is their course history at Deer Run no matter if it was last year for step Rocka winning two years ago for Poston three years ago for Glover the blue was their recent form before they won that year so recent form that year their five events before they won is the blue bar the white bar is you how they have done at that course in general and as opposed to last week Benny where course history really didn’t mean anything we’re seeing a little bit of a mix where these guys like this course they like we call it the course form for all three of these guys showed that I think what it shows is if once you play well there or once you win there you get it you just love the joint don’t you you start to turn your mindset around I mean you can see there that uh Glover was the one guy that was probably showing a bit more form uh leading into T his win at TPC de run he played their million times obviously and really got an affinity for it and has managed to maintain that since which is which is pretty decent for the old fella uh and you see Poston of course you know winning and then backing it up with a 2 six so you know I think once you get some confidence there on these courses you can really take that forward I suppose in the end we could say that in hindsight about Cam Davis last week right right he was playing terribly uh terribly uh leading in this year really trying to turn his um form around but because he went to a place where he had an affinity where he’d won before it was sort of the the kick started to play well uh so it’s good to see that guys who have played the past champions are someone you should absolutely look at especially in place markets if I’m looking this look at those two guys that one have had a have had a top 10 so maybe you’re looking at striker for a top 10 this week for instance and before the win another interesting one because look it’s it’s we do use this form but you go back from last year and the year before that uh this the the schedules for the pj2 are much different we’re we’re slightly different we didn’t have as many Signature Events or majors in the exact spots they are guys played a little bit more uh right through the summer uh there were a lot of iron men there are less of those now um so we’ll see how that trans translates to this week but uh I do like that I that you see there that the poting had had a runner up before uh that’s something that you can keep in mind going forward look at the guys who were there last week because there’s going to be a lot of names we didn’t mention thisis there going to be a lot of names that you may not recognize this right there are guys with a lot of opportunity to play here we’ve had some high-profile WDS including Davis for the winner last week Patrick Klay out as well uh so we’re just getting more and more guys with opportunities knowing that they really don’t have any other that many other chances where the the FedEx Cup playoffs are creeping up on us right it’s not that far if you want to be if you want to get in the top 70 and you’re sitting in 150th 140th well you better finish top three this week to start thinking about that my biggest takeaway from this graph is the recent form the five events before these guys won that year they didn’t have to be playing great you’ve got plenty of miscuts for all three of these guys on here but they showed glimpses of being In Contention you don’t got to pick guys who have been rattling off top 10 and top 20s for the last two months all you got to do is be finding guys if you really like a guy just make sure he’s not missing every cut make sure he’s getting in top 10 top 15 in somewhat of contention and then you can feel good about picking these guys that that’s my big takeaway here Ben is that you don’t need the guy you don’t need the Tom Kim or the oay batia the guys who were right on the precipice for the last couple of weeks you need a guy who maybe showed form any time in the last two do you agree I do um I could probably tip a name or twoo early but I’ll save that for the round table but now look I’ll throw one out at you we just spoke about rounds in the 60s and and uh stats uh random guy who finished runner up like four starts ago but hasn’t done much since is Ben Griffin Ben Griffin uh is fifth on tour for rounds in the 60s he’s not on our radar he’s not on any of these stats I got up here nope there you go right 55 to1 think 55 to one this week but Pops in two of these key stats so then you think to yourself okay he’s had a reasonable finish not that long ago doesn’t have any course history here though so what’s he going to be when you get 55 to1 maybe that’s sort of an outlaw you’re looking at in the place Mar it’s a top 20 top 10 Etc um because he hits in rounds in the 60s and he hits in somewhat of recent form that’d be a juicy number last thing we want to do for you before we go again hit that subscribe button if you like what you see we’re going through all the biggest stats for you to pick winners this week on the the PGA Tour we’re looking at Strokes gained on this course and how each player in the field has done historically compared to everybody else in the field this week we’re going to go through a list of 10 here’s our top five Benny Lucas Glover Maverick mcne Grayson Sig Brendan Todd and Alex SMY it is a wide array of players when it comes to age when it comes to experience when it comes to the Tendencies of knowing how to win and maybe still learning how to be on top of your game these are your top five per round Strokes gain at TPC Deer Run the first thing I’ll say is I don’t know if I’m convinced that a guy like Lucas Glover is going to be anywhere in any Market you want this week it’s it’s insane to look at these numbers with these players you look at the odds versus the fact that they have done so well at TPC deun it’s you know what it’s screaming to me Chris all of a sudden I’m s thinking that maybe this is a week where you just go on the long shots and you you know you sprinkle half units or whatever across a bunch of long shots that you might think could do something and that you just want to cheer for rather than sort of going all in on a favor we’ll get to that later in the week on Chalk talk but this might not be a chalk week this might be a long shot week where you think to yourself okay it’s it’s you know we’re throwing we’re throwing pingpong balls in the air with so many players that are coming in you’ve got veterans you’ve got Young Guns you’ve got guys who haven’t played in a few weeks guys have been playing for seven weeks in a row it’s all happening so yeah it might be an idea to have a bit of fun with lesser unit size but over big odds keep in mind just looking at these guys Maverick MCN is an interesting one like hasn’t played in all the bigger events but played half decent in the others like him as a player but I can’t take 28 to1 he’s not a proven winner he’s not a proven winner I I think mcne I think McNeely and Sig and maybe SMY I would probably look at in head-to-head markets I don’t know if I don’t know a big place market maybe if you’re going top 20 or top 40 I would look at all three of those guys in head-to heads yeah head-to-head if you get someone you know on a similar value where absolutely you can see that okay they clearly have got an affinity with the course so maybe they’ll bust out of a head Toad and you’ll get some value there you’re right even looking at uh SMY Sig even even Brendon Todd if you are looking Place markets you’re still looking at 20 at the best you know like 40 is really you might you might think of them as potential Bank bilders in the top 40 you know they might be someone that you can look to in that market just because they’ve done so well here and and it is important it is important that if you’ve played dun you do have you do have course knowledge that you can use uh you know one guy hilariously and of course it’s because of he hasn’t been there since 2015 but one of the near favorites or favorites Jordan spe he’s not on the list because this is 2019 we’re only going back to the last five years in all fairness that’s what we do we’re only going back The Last 5 Years cuz I I feel like there’s some serious value in how somebody has played the last handful of years versus what they were a decade ago but you’re right spe nowhere to be found Sun JM not on this list I mean all these stars are not on this list we’re on page two this is players six to 10 and it’s a lot like page one Ben where you’ve got veterans value in these odds you’re getting value it’s weird big ones uh we we should almost get someone to do an experiment for us up there Chris and put their dollar $1 on eight of these 10 long shots I mean yeah I mean what I think let me go back to the last page was it 28 to one was McNeely was yeah MC NE is 28 to one and if we’re going to take Glover out and we’re looking at the top 10 Strokes game do them all not leave anyone out just put your 10 that’s one10 $1 bets right there on these car if one of them wins you’re in the money oh you’re in the money all right they’ve clearly shown they’ve clearly shown they like the joint um okay the more interesting name for me here Mark hubber I think he actually has some course history to of recent time that that could meld with playing a few decent weeks this year as well uh he would be a guy that if he ended up winning I wouldn’t be as surprised as some of the others um it wasn’t that long ago that Adam shank was the type of guy we spoke about winning multiple times in the summer so maybe there’s some value there I I I think I think spencon the same way yes yeah yeah but then you look at the two the book ends here on this one more in Vegas well they that’s yeah they’ve been great players but a long time ago right they they they are they are reaching the very end of our 2019 stat line yeah I had to I had to include it because that was the parameter that that’s it’s five years you’ve got to keep it in there but yeah hubard senson shank I’d look at them McNeely maybe so I think there’s there’s some serious some serious research to do on at least some of these names here yeah I’m going to lean back towards I I haven’t done my PCT in my full pick I said I threw out Ben Griffin because I’ve started to do my research that name popped for me in a few of those stats but then I looked and so he hasn’t played here so I’ll have to juggle that and decide whether that’s important or not I do think putting uh is important uh but like you said I could easily just say oh go pick um let’s Denny McCarthy right Denny mcarthy who just missed this list but I mean has McCarthy been in the form you want him if you’re going to pick him to win is he been in the form you want him to be cuz he’s got to get hot with a putter which he can do but I think everything else is off the table for him right now in My Mind Correct that and that’s the problem I think he’s prob because of this field list he’s probably about 20 22 to1 he’s like the because because they know he can go lights out with his putter all right so he is a candidate so it’s going to be a situation where I have to decide do I stick with the stats this week our key stats do we really H in hard on them and try to figure out guys that you know fit that fit the bill like McCarthy but then eat what you I mean you should be getting double the odds you know like way more odds so you got to decide that which which way you’re going to go and the more and more we sit here and talk I said the more and more it might be a week where you throw a dollar on a bunch of 60 to 80 to 150 to one shots and just have some fun letting them play in the shootout and see hopefully one of those guys is yours we’ll let Benny marinate on that thought overnight and we’ll get back to you guys on the round table on Tuesday how about that then sounds great [Music]
1 Comment
Wow I’m new here ….. what an awesome show! Good luck this week fellas.