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hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 rocket mortgage DFS tactic show we have everything you need this evening to finalize and optimize your lineups the projected ownerships per fantasy National and per Gabe Source um the weather forecast and of course rankings to help you navigate this very difficult DFS uh board this week so let’s get right into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description of the video there are links to all of the social media first off my ex and Instagram where earlier this week I posted some research around the previous five winners of the rocket mortgage classic going back to 2019 and the players in the field this week who also follow the same patterns that those winners uh have done so so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contest I play that comes out uh late on Wednesday evenings after the DFS tactics show so it’ll be out later this evening if you want to see those pieces of content give me a follow over at X lastly for social media gab’s handles is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and he provides you with more data throughout the week with his own version of recent form and course history and if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday evening after the DFS tactic show as we continue the DFS talk over there he’s gracious enough to host me it’s always a great discussion week in and week out uh we talk about Game Theory our favorite areas of the price board anything that you can imagine DFS wise uh we cover over there so you are really missing out if you are not subscribed to his article so go show him some support follow him over on social media as well lastly we are live chat’s open in addition to the poll question that I want to hear from you all I want your answering that I want to hear who your winner is uh meent uh mentioned this uh in the beginning of the intro but uh probably a little bit of a surprise for me as a 6K player yes that’s right a 6K player is my number one player this week in my rankings so you definitely want to stay tuned in to see that but I want to hear your winner who are you gravitating towards who are you fading away from all that as we uh continue our DFS look for the rocket morgage so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 rocket mortgage and we start over at the ex or the uh super forecast at windfinder and I will post that question here momentarily the poll question for the week a little bit of a different approach since I myself have had a little bit of difficulty building lineups this week I think I’ve settled on a General um build structure if you will but the poll question this week how many players are in your core and you can disagree with my definition or whatever but uh for for all intens and purposes or at least for this exercise we’re going to consider core players being in 50% or more of your lineups so how many players are in your core are there none are you taking a pure scatter shot approach are you very heavy on a few players 1 to five 6 to 10 or do you have 11 or more players that are in 50% or more in your lineups are you just um going haywire this week so would love to hear your all’s uh input and what you all are doing this week in terms of lineup constructions we look at the the super forecast in windfinder as of right now it doesn’t appear there’s any rain in the forecast for tomorrow or for Friday that is a contrast to what has been happening in Detroit on Monday and Tuesday they have had a lot of rain up there so the course is going to be very soft it’s going to be very very receptive and it just emphasizes even more that I think it’s going to play easy but looking at the forecast for in terms of wind for the cut portion of the tournament looks like we have a decent amount of wind or at least um you know mid teens in terms of Gusty winds tomorrow and it’s projected to die down as the day goes on generally speaking wind picks up during the day so all we can go by is the forecast but as you see here I would give you know a decent Advantage I can’t say it’s significant but I can’t call it very little either I would give it a decent advantage to the Thursday PM portion tomorrow and then Friday looks pretty even uh the the lightest winds again are in the morning uh but gusts are in the mid teens all day the sustained winds pick up you know to towards the early afternoon so it’s it’s feasible you could give a slight Edge to the Friday a.m. as well therefore I think and based on just this forecast I think there is an advantage to the Thursday pm. Friday a.m wave now I would not um I I would not ignore any player in the morning half of the draw tomorrow if you really like them for example Tom Kim is teeing off in the morning portion tomorrow and he is our most projected own player so I would not avoid anybody um or you know everybody in the in the morning wave if there’s somebody you like and they happen to have a morning tea time I think it’s going to be fine but if you are on the fence with a player or if you’re looking for tiebreaker scenarios I do think the th pm. Friday a.m. portion of the draw has a favor U anywhere between slight to maybe moderate favor based on just this forecast one thing else I want to uh draw to your all’s attention the players in the morning tomorrow um and again I’m not extremely familiar with with the Detroit Golf Club so I don’t know which holes are going to be into the wind and with the wind cross wind based on this but if we’re looking at cardinality uh North to South Thursday look at the Friday uh PM portion it doesn’t flip 180 per se but it is certainly a very very different wind uh going you know Southeast to Northwest where as the Thursday uh Thursday p.m. and Friday a.m. generally speaking is is blowing from east to west now in the afternoon tomorrow it looks more you know Northwest to Southeast versus Friday morning looks more uh Southeast to Northwest but generally speaking they are facing in uh the same wind this east to west wind cardinality wise uh here on wind finder don’t overlook that um cuz those players are going to be playing the same course the same course with the same wind whereas Thursday morning they’re going to be hitting into the wind whereas on Friday afternoon those players could be downwind then on that hole or um you know Cross or whatever so everything I see points to a favor for the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. if we zoom out and take a look at the weekend there does appear to be some rain and and a system coming in on Saturday you see the Gusty winds pick up into the mid 20s so I would imagine that the super forecast here has a lot of rain in it but we just don’t we we can’t get a super forecast that far out the furthest is Friday I imagine there is quite a bit of rain in the forecast on Saturday and then Sunday the the wind does look like it’ll be a factor but the most important part for us this evening is trying to get six to six through in our DFS lineups and with that I would think that the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. has as you know anywhere from a slight to moderate Advantage so with that we’ll move to Fantasy national uh the overarching filter that we have used this week and it will be prevalent in the mixed condition model Detroit’s easy it’s just a very easy Golf Course for professionals so when rounds are easy relative to par in the past two years our top per formers have been Taylor pendrith Alex noren Bo Hustler Doug gim Chan Kim Luke list Rio hitss Ben Kohl’s OA batia and Michael Kim little Tak a little bit look further look down Ben Griffin minu Lee Eric Cole Patrick Rogers Adams Vincent and onward down you can see to about the top 25 or so those are your top performers when rounds have been easy the past couple of years the other end of the spect players have not played well when rounds have been easy Kevin kizner uh Ryan brim Ben Taylor Jason duffner Tyson Alexander Ricky has not been great when rounds have been easy um he played okay at The Travelers wasn’t great but it was okay uh the Heritage wasn’t great the players uh the cognizant classic you see all these these negative rounds when rounds have been easy relative to party you just generally has not been good when rounds have been easy web Simpson Davis Riley Sammy valaki Kevin strowman and on down you can see there these are the players who have not been good when rounds have been easy relative to par all right um we could look at Don Ross but we’ve done that at this week um no real other filter to look at so let’s just let’s just go ahead and get into the mix condition model that I’ve made for the rocket mortgage this week um we start with 25% in approach uh the um course is going to be soft professionals are going to be firing at Flags I just want to see who is uh the best with their irons uh especially since these Fairways are pretty forgiving not too worried about accuracy off the tea uh cuz I imagine they might have ball in hand tomorrow with the amount of rain they’ve had uh Monday and yesterday so 25% in approach 10% on bent and POA Ana putting that is what this filter is the multiple courses bent and po Ana putting uh 10% in distance again with it being soft I do not think players are going to get the roll out that they generally get here I have put a little bit of extra emphasis into distance as opposed to accuracy even though I think it could be ball in hand generally distance is the bigger Factor here at Detroit and you see that I’m using the easy relative to power filter so I am uh more so looking at the distance as opposed to the accuracy this week at least with the driver 10% opportunities gained when scoring is easy again this is going it’s soft especially tomorrow I expect it to be easy I just want to see who gives themselves the most opportunities especially when it’s easy that’s the whole reason behind this we know that Detroit’s easy we’ve talked about it all week there’s going to be a a lot of birdies you got to get into the mid 20s to realistically have a chance to win So 20% birdies are better gained when rounds are easy 5% proximity you know kind of in line with the approach and the opportunities gain it’s going to be soft I want to see the players who just fire at Flags so 5% in total procs 5% in all par fours I did not feel comfortable splitting out any particular range range whether that be the 350 to 4 the 450 to 5 I just didn’t feel comfortable and they’re a little bit mitigated here um Cons considering this is a par 72 we have three par fours and three excuse me four par 3s and four par fives so you know we have two less par fours than we normally do uh or at least we have in the past several weeks it seems like we’ve had par 70s for several weeks in a row now so not a whole lot in par fours you see I don’t have any par 3s instead 15% in 550 to 600 par fivs I did feel comfortable enough to separ out separate out this range look at it by itself there is one par five that measures over 600 yards we’re not you know bringing that into consideration in this mixed condition model it’s a decent birdie hole but really players are are separating themselves when they’re able to make Eagle on these short par fives here at Detroit and I want to call out or highlight the fact that I’m using the last 36 rounds for the entire season as opposed to what I have done recently which is the last three months and 24 rounds for this specific metric because if we were to look at the last 24 rounds you know a course might have one at you or at most two par fives that measured to this range so it wouldn’t be a big sample size I realized that as I was digging into some data this week so I really wanted to expand uh expand that to make sure we have enough data to make it significant when we’re looking at a specific range so we’re going to see how that does this week as opposed to the last 24 and 3 months but a very very I can’t call it simple mixed condition model but a very shallow one only eight metrics used I am I am pretty keyed in on two to three metrics this week that I think are going to be very very important and then um you know uh auxiliar or uh what’s the word I’m looking for using some auxiliary uh metrics to uh to boost those or or to supplement them again 25% approach I want to see who goes low birdies are better particularly when it’s easy par FS I think are going to have a significant weight those are the three main metrics in the mixed condition model and then you know we didn’t definitely don’t want to overlook putting this is going to be a putting contest I want to see who is the best on bent and POA uh my angle this week is driving distance so I want to see who uh simply hits the ball the furthest off the te um opportunities gained proximity uh with the fact that it’s it’s generally easy here at Detroit and I think players are going to be firing at Flags considering how soft and receptive the course is going to be uh that’s the angle I decided to take so with that we will move to Microsoft Excel and the reveal of my ranking and as I mentioned in the intro I’ve got a 6K player number one in my rankings so um I will bring that up as a reminder to those of you who are returning viewers for your information if you are a new viewer my rankings are based on three criteria the fgc rank which is a straight numerical ranking based on the mixed condition model we just talked about in fantasy National the metric and the percentages in them course value is an attempt at giving a player a numerical value based on how well they’ve played that course in the past five years gener I only go back five years but thankfully for us rocket mortgage uh in Detroit has only been seen for 5 years so the entirety of the tournament the lower the number the better and then we are playing DFS so projected ownership and this these are projected ownerships fantasy National projected ownerships are a factor into my rankings as well speaking of projected ownerships Gabe was kind enough to send over his sources um projected ownerships so we’re going to be comparing uh fantasy National with with gab Source see where any discrepancies might lie but my rankings for this week’s rocket mortgage Justin low at 6500 is my number one player this week Aaron Ry Alex norin Taylor pendrith and Tom Kim round out my top five this Vincent Matt Wallace Keith Mitchell Ben Griffin and Chan Kim round up my top 10 with an asterisk on one player but let’s talk about the obvious uh why in the world is Justin low who’s a mid 6K play number one in my rankings well he was fourth purely by the Numbers he has been pretty darn good with his irons he goes low when it’s easy but he also is the number two putter in this field on bent and po Ana uh it’s a smaller sample size sure but he’s played fairly well here this is a pretty darn good course value there’s a lot to like with Justin low and even the members of fantasy National seem to be gravitating towards him 12 and a half% per fantasy national g uh gab Source nowhere near that uh gab Source has Justin low at 4% so I mean even if you want to take the high end of this and say 8 to 10% I’m still going to be all over Justin low this week the only thing he really lacks is distance which could hurt this week but he still gives himself plenty of opportunities I mean excellent with proximity um I I I like Justin low a lot I’m not necessarily as high on Aaron Ry yes the irons are fantastic and this is probably his best uh surface in terms of putting I’m I’m just a little bit more wary on Aaron Ry as opposed to what it might seem with him being second U he’s only played this once he played played it very well um but I I’m a little bit more wary on Aaron Ry the one player in the uh top 10 for me that I just don’t want any part of and it’s only because I I have some additional information on him is Ben Griffin analytically everything is pretty darn solid for Ben Griffin minus the putter what some people might not know is that he is dealing with um floaters um he wore sunglasses last week playing at The Travelers he’s having uh some eye issues anytime you’re involved in sports and you don’t have good eyesight it’s a problem so I’m going to wait and and see how Ben Griffin reacts and and plays with these uh with these sunglasses until he gets this procedure done but um he is not uh he does not have 100% eyesight so I just uh I understand why why the numbers have put him up here at Ninth um you know 13th in the rankings uh an you know by the Numbers been okay here fairly unique but there’s no way for uh the numbers to know that Ben Griffin just doesn’t have 100% eyesight so I’m just completely out on B Griffin with that otherwise I really like this top 10 I really do again I Aaron R A little bit too high for my liking I was really high on Justin low I’m a little surprised to see him at number one but Alex norren makes a lot of sense uh here at um at Detroit the approach game has been good he’s the number one player on these par five on the length of the par fives that’s what you have to do here you have to take advantage of the par fives uh T pendrith he’s been in fantastic form same with Tom Kim Vincent slight sneaky but his irons have been very very good lately um he’s going to have to clean up the power five sure but um but I don’t really have an issue with with this top 10 other than Aaron Ry being a little bit too high and the numbers would would not know about Ben Griffin all right so with that we’re going to sort on the price board figure out where the chalk is and see how we can maneuver around that so in the five digits in the 10ks we have four players we have Tom Kim at 11,000 cam young at 107 minw Le at 105 and Alex norn at 102 very very cheap five digigit uh range this week at the rocket mortgage considering there’s no Scotty no Rory or anything like that very rare that you get an 11,000 being your top price your most expensive player in the 10ks you see my my model likes all four of these players I’m actually not playing one of them I’m going to full fade one of these players just because you can’t you just can’t play everybody so you got to take a stand somewhere Tom Kim should be fine I mean yeah he’s going to be the most projected own player on the Slate um or he is the most projected owned player on the Slate not for Fantasy National fantasy National only has him at 16 and a half or 177% gab Source has him at 30 I would I would I would venture to say he’s going to be anywhere between 30 to 35% for a good reason I mean the form that he’s in top five in irons uh top 10 in par fives number one on par fours in this field also number two in total procs Tom Kim’s a good play he’s just a chalky play but I think it’s fine mini is the player that I’m going to be extremely overweight on I’m hoping his ownership is much closer to Fantasy Nationals as opposed to gab Source there’s a 10% difference here fantasy National has him at 133% gab Source has him at 23% I much more interested in M mle if he’s at this 133% I understand the irons have not been great um not too worried about it he has putt exceptionally well on Benton POA in his small sample he’s also third in distance which I think is going to be a little bit more of a factor this week I love everything about mini he’s also got the Thursday PM Friday a.m. portion of the draw uh just I like everything about minw Le and Gabe Source actually has Alex noren as the pivot in the 10ks I say pivot he’s still 16% per gabur so I mean both fantasy National and gabur have him 15 to 16% so he’s not going to be unique per se but he is the pivot of the 10ks I I think Alex norn is fine number one in the par fives the iron’s been great uh should be should be fine he is uh he does have the Thursday a.m. draw so a little bit of a knock on him which means I’m just full fading Cameron young and I am very nervous to do so extremely nervous to do so but you you just simply can’t play everybody look the irons are still not great yes he shot the 59 on Saturday last week and then came back and birdied the first four on Sunday but I think there was a little bit of of magic in there I think there was a little bit of of um smoking mirrors if you will if we go to Fantasy National just very very quickly I want to show you Cam young and why I I’m not a Believer just yet first off I mean you see he generally doesn’t play easy well it’s fine but he doesn’t play it exceptionally well let’s take a look at The Travelers he gained several Strokes off the T he gained quite a bit around the green I do not think around the green is going to matter at all his irons still were not great at The Travelers and he was dead even at putting the two most important shot types were his two worst shot types all last week I am again I I I’m fading him nervously but I just don’t I’m going to wait on Cameron young and make sure he plays well week over week as opposed to Riding High on his on his 59 and his top 10 I I’m just not a Believer yet I’m just not and if you if he plays well I’ll lose I I accept that so that’s a look at the 10ks I’m going to have my fair share of Tom Kim I’m going to be extremely overweight on minw Le I’m hoping his ownership is closer to Fantasy Nationals projection as opposed to gabes sources projection Alex noren’s fine he’s probably third of the three that I’m going to play uh for reasons that I’ll talk about um here momentarily uh I just like I like the fit for mini even though he’s never played here and then again I’m full fading cam young if he plays well I’ll lose but you can’t play everybody moving to the nines uh we only have five players in the nines batia pendrith joerger zalatoris and Ricky Fowler now according to Fantasy National two of these players are are big pivots are very unique zorus and Ricky Fowler Gabe Source actually has zorus close to the 12% Mark what is very clear is that people don’t seem to be gravitating to our defending Champion Ricky Fowler and I’m not I I I have to agree ever since his win last year at the rocket mortgage he has not been good he just simply has not been good now what is in his favor is that he has a pretty good course value of course the defending Champion he also has another top 20 maybe two other top 20s here he’s generally been fairly solid at the rocket mortgage but his current form is horrendous so I don’t want any part of Ricky and I actually don’t want any part of Wills Al tourus either which means I’m going to be extremely overweight on these two I understand that they Chalk in in the 10K or in the 9ks excuse me I don’t care I’m really really high on batia and pendrith both you see batia rated out a little bit lower M basically because he’s only played here once and it was really really bad the irons are much better um we’ve seen what form he’s in top five and birdies are better when it’s easy I mean he’ll go low and don’t be uh shy on his putting on Benton po Ana his win at the Barracuda last year even though that’s not in fantasy National because it’s not a stroke uh stroke play event the Barracuda at the Benton po Anna and he won that tournament last year so he can he he’s fine on this surface it’s not great but it’s fine so I really like Patia I love pendri this week we’re going to see pendri a lot uh uh when we talk about one and done and and betting cards and such I love everything about Taylor pendrith everybody does um it’s chalk Al Eat he’s in exceptional form he’s played very well here in two tournaments he’s played very well here both times I just like a lot with Taylor pendri and both of these players have the good half of the draw they are Thursday afternoon and Friday morning I will sprinkle in some Stephan joerger but this is more of a fade for me Jagger is projected anywhere between 15% and 20% um and I got a little bit of concern uh the putter isn’t great on this surface the irons haven’t been fantastic um and he doesn’t give himself a lot of opportunities as you can see by his total procs here so I’ve got I’ve got a little bit of of concern for Jagger I will have him I can’t call it a full fade but I am definitely going to be under the 15 to 20% on joerger I am much more on batian pendrith so in the 9ks I’m using these two quite quite extensively uh I’ll sprinkle some Jagger and I’m completely out on these two if you’re willing to go here you’re going to gain a lot especially if you’re willing to go to Ricky who I think is who I would go to between these two to be honest with you because of the course uh course history but I don’t like either player moving into the eights um you see most of these players I like with the exception of you know Ryan Fox I’ve tried to back him several times it’s always always uh just backfired on me seemingly uh just I don’t want any part of it Thor Boron I was not terribly impressed last week in his first professional event if he plays well I’ll lose Okay I accept that uh I’m just not there otherwise I pretty much like the 8ks I’m a little bit less on Aaron Ry as I mentioned in the reveal of my top 10 but I still think it’s a fine play he’s quite chalky 21% for gab Source 18% per fantasy National so a lot of people are gravitating towards him I would be a little B wary of the putter but this is his best surface so it should be fine I’m just not as high on him as this might seem Bobby Mack probably fine as well the irons in the proximity is better than what it’s showing um he is you know garnering more attention than what fantasy National is suggesting it’s okay not in love with it I love Keith Mitchell this week uh even if he only plays three of the four rounds uh I I just like everything about Keith Mitchell this week number one in um fantasy National or by the Numbers top 10 in irons second in the par fives as much as a of a bulky putter as he can have much like batia much like Aaron Ry this is seemingly his preferred surface it’s actually not been too bad on this surface at least compared to the rest of this field so I really like Keith Mitchell he is one of four players players one of four players that doesn’t have a pink or red statistic across here so I like I like Keith Mitchell a lot I will eat that chalk because he’s about 18 to 20% uh MAV mcne is another player who doesn’t have a bad statistic across here the irons’s been fine I’m not thrilled with mad MC especially if he is indeed 20 to 22% but I will have him a little bit that’s a lot of ownership that is a lot of ownership so I’d be a little bit cautious on MAV just because of the ownership um Davis Thompson probably okay takes advantage of Pari what you have to do um he’s he’s garnering a lot of attention as well you know anywhere between 15 and 18% so the pivot in the area if you’re willing to try Ryan fox or Thor Boron fine the pivot might be Chris Kirk now he rid it out pretty darn well 12th for me 18th purely by the Numbers the irons are a little suspect a little bit he’s still not in great iron form but you can’t deny the fact that he gives himself plenty of opportunities especially when it’s easy he flag hunts you’ll get some Bogies but you’ll get some birdies as well uh demonstrated there top 30 in this field and of course winning at the century which is very very easy as well so I do like Chris Kirk not not maybe maybe not as high as this would suggest being 12th but I do I will use some Chris Kirk uh despite the fact that he was pretty bad last week and a lot of people were on him fortunately I was not so in the 8ks I’m going to dabble I’m going to sprinkle a little bit of Aaron Ry I’m going to sprinkle a little bit Davis th going to sprinkle some Chris Kirk but again this is more chalk I’ll eat I’ll eat the Keith Mitchell chalk I really really like Keith Mitchell and I’ll have some MCN as well so I’ve got to find some uniqueness somewhere fortunately I think I have some for you at the bottom portion of the price board we move to the upper Sev I talked about Ben Griffin I’m just not there because I want to see him fully healthy he’s not right now despite the fact that he’s been playing well um he’s just not healthy uh he’s got to get uh an eye procedure done I’m going to just hold off on Ben Griffin I’m surprised quite honestly that Eric Van royan is less than 10% this guy loves easy easy courses um now the the putter is bad on bent po an sure it’s It’s Not Great by any stretch um sorry there van oryan but this guy loves easy courses you think about his win at uh L Cardell Damonte this past fall at tigers venue uh the irons been f i i i don’t see anything wrong with Eric V royan I’m surprised he’s sitting under 10% I’ll be extremely happy if he’s under 10% this makes a lot of sense I’m a little surprised Vincent rated out so high but I mean again as I mentioned I mean top 20 and irons top 10 opportunities when it’s easy the guy flag hunts he won a similar style event a an easy event with the RSM a couple of years ago uh I’m not worried about his lack of distance this vinent sitting at you know 133% for gab Source 10% here I’d be I’d be I wouldn’t be thrilled with 133% but you know anywhere in the 11 to 12% I’d be okay with it so I I like both of these players EVR and vinon um I do want to mention Taylor Moore he has played very very well here um but he has no current form look at the irons horrendous proximity horrendous you’re if you play Taylor Moore it’s all all based on the fact that he has two top 10 here I don’t think that’s enough to go on so no thanks instead I love Matt Wallace love Matt Wallace top 15 in irons the putter is good on Benton po Ana top 10 in par fours and I don’t think a lot of people realize that with this you know huge stretch that they’ve had on the PGA tour going signature event major signature event Matt Wallace went over to the DP World Tour in top 15 so um solid I just love everything about Wallace I love the price now fantasy National members are kind of on him at 12 12% gab Source has him at 10% so if we’re getting anything less than 12% on Matt Wallace I think it’s a steal I would if Matt Wallace does not play well this week I will lose I’m going to be enormously overweight on Matt Wallace Love Wallace this week I like Hoy guard as well um I think hoard’s going to play pretty well this week he has plenty of distance to take advantage of Detroit um I’ll mention Cam Davis he’s one here he’s generally been pretty good here but uh just like Taylor Moore he has no current form so to do that do with that what you will Kevin Yu quite interesting with the number one iron player in this field but man that putter is bad it is really bad so if you think Kevin youu can SC scratch out a field average week um he’s going to be very unique he’s going to be a stalwart for you if his putter it’s a big if if his putter is even field average but I do like Kevin youu I’m willing to take that chance considering his ball striking is is immaculate um the only other player that I might want to mention in the in the lower sevens is Daniel Burger I’ve talked about him a couple times and how I was going to wait till he was healthy he’s had two fairly solid showings um I can’t remember exactly what he did at the US Open but I feel like he made the cut I got to go check now the vision will be skewed I apologize but I do want to check this yeah I mean yeah top 25 the US Open top 15 uh TBC Craig Ranch which is a birdie Fest so I’m going to Sprint I’m going to dabble I’m not going to go Haywire with it I’m starting to believe a little bit on Daniel Burger especially in a in a very very weak field like this uh moving to the sixes so there actually before before that I mean that there there’s some uniqueness for you Hoy guard Kevin Yu especially Daniel burer might not be as unique as you might think hovering around 10% but in a in a contest like this that’s extremely loaded up top 10% should be fine for you with Daniel Burger moving to the sixes I I there’s a lot in the sixes that I like this is where I’ve been getting a whole lot of uniqueness let’s start with Rio hitsun right at 7% for for both sources somebody I key in on early this week top 10 and birdies are better when it’s easy we don’t have any uh measurements on bent po a putting but I’m not terribly worried about it uh he generally just plays easy courses well and the irons are good it’s enough for me this week to go with Rio hitsun um let’s talk about Michael Kim analytical darling he can he can putt pretty well this is his worst surface but I think Michael Kim might show up this week pretty good uh top 30 irons almost top 10 and birdies are better when it’s easy we talked about Justin at least I talked about Justin low number one player in my in my rankings now he won’t be unique uh per fantasy Nationals um projected ownerships but in the 6ks per gab Source the highest is Doug gim and Adam shank anywhere between 8 and 9% everyone else is 6% or less so give me all of the Justin low I can handle if he and Matt Wallace don’t play well this week I will lose I’m going to be so extremely overweight on Justin low it’s not funny uh it’s kind of sad actually but I’m going to be extremely overweight on Justin low love everything about him this week uh sh Kim take a long look at sh Kim as well uh the irons are better than what has been showing again loves birdie fests loves them he takes advantage of power fives what you have to do here um I think I think this is going to be a good setup for sh Kim and JJ spawn a lot with the course history he’s four for four here four for four uh top five in ier uh is JJ spawn in this field so I like both of these players as well I’m higher on sh Kim I do want to mention spawn of course Justin low somebody else I know Chan Kim was 10th I’m actually higher on chess Hadley um Hadley sixth in this field in putting on Benton POA we know how much matters here at Detroit the Iron’s been good it goes low when it’s easy I I like quite a bit with with chess and Hadley um you want to talk about team no putt if we’re all in on the distance you take a look at Cameron Champ he’s actually not been horrible here here it’s not great he hadn’t been horrendous here um again I’m going to sprinkle it I’m not in love with it but I’m going to use him a little bit maybe once or twice so um don’t say I I didn’t say anything if he does play well and then when he inevitably you know shoots 7775 you can come back and say why in the world did you mentioned cam champ and I can tell you that well that was just kind of dumb um the last name in the in the sixes that I I want to casually mention is David skins David skins now he’ll have to be much much better on the par fives no doubt about that but the irons’s been okay pretty pretty darn good when it’s been easy so I do want to casually mention David skins in the 6K so that’s where I’ve been getting a lot a lot of my uniqueness coming down to the 6ks I don’t mind coming down here twice uh just to just to fit in all of this up here that I like and there’s a few 5K plays that I want to mention to you all as well two or three of them to be exact first one’s Carson young top 20 in my rankings uh you want to talk about putting Carson young can putt um is also fourth in Opportunities when it’s easy so you combine a good putter with somebody who gives himself a lot of opportunities that’s a really good recipe for Success um especially at five in the 5Ks top 10 in proximity as well so take a long look at Caron young Dylan woo somebody I want to highlight for you all Tia green is fantastic driving distance maybe not it might be lacking a little bit but definitely some somebody to to key in on in the 5Ks um yeah I mean per gab Source 3% is the highest and that’s Carson young so I I don’t think you’re going to be if you’re willing to come down to the 5Ks you’re going to be getting a whole lot of uniqueness anyway so um yeah I like Dylan woo quite a bit somebody else is Nick Hardy I talked about players that didn’t have a bad statistic across what we gathered this week he’s in the 5Ks he doesn’t have a bad statistic he’s got two you know pretty mediocre ones maybe even slightly less than field average but they’re not horrible for somebody in the 5Ks who doesn’t have a pink or red statistic that is very rare so I’m going to be using some Nick Hardy and then the fourth and final player that I would like to mention to you all in the 5Ks he’s not not going to be as unique as you think uh especially with members of fantasy National but it’s Kelly craft the guy is in very good form right now top 10 in this field in irons and top 20 in putting on this surface that’s a very good combination for Detroit top 10 in irons top 20 in putting it’s very good combination opportunities good proximi gosh dang it proximity is good the great so I do want to mention Kelly Krab but you see that fantasy National members are kind of gravitating towards him so I I do have some suspicion he might be the chalk of the 5Ks so there’s a look at the price board and where I’m going and and how I’m going to win or lose um if certain players play well or don’t let’s start making some lineups we’re going to start with tear contests then we’ll move to Classic tiers contest tier one we have Tom Kim Cameron young and minw Le um for me it’s probably Min wo Le just because I’m trying to get some uniqueness and I’m I’m trying to get uh get a little um I think the Home Run play is there with Min Le but I do not blame you one bit if it’s Tom Kim I just I don’t think it’s Cameron young so choose between Tom Kim minw Le I’ll go with minw Le hoping he’s a little bit more unique especially in a tears contest tier two norin batia pendri joerger and Fowler uh for me it’s a pretty clear pendri butti is a pretty clear second but I think pendri separates himself uh pretty clearly uh in this tier and that’s another reason why I went with minwu Lee as opposed to Tom Kim because pendri is going to be the chalky play in this tier but I think it’s the best play in this tier tier three Al tus MAV M Ney Aaron Ry Bobby Mack and Davis Thompson not in love with a lot here mcne is going to be chalky ry’s going to be chalky so you can maybe take a look at Davis Thompson in tier three if you’re needing some uniqueness especially if you started your lineup with Tom Kim and Taylor pendri you’re probably not going to be able to go mcne or Ry in a tear contest so that in that regard you might have to go Thompson and I don’t hate that Bobby Mack probably fine but I think I would prefer [Music] Thompson um if you’re trying to play the best play regardless of ownership it’s probably McNeely probably um I’ll go Davis Thompson because I took Taylor pendrith in tier two and we’ll go from there tier four Keith Mitchell Ryan Fox Chris Kirk Thor bjornson Griffin EV R and Vinson I like Keith Mitchell he might be the chalk of the tier the partial reason why I went Min Le partial reason why I went Davis Thompson I knew I was going to take Keith Mitchell in tier four just love everything about it number one purely by the Numbers uh Chris Kirk should be fine could be interesting uh EVR quite interesting as well I think he’s going to be pretty good this week but in in tier four I much prefer Keith Mitchell and that’s why I took Davis Thompson in tier three so give me Mitchell in tier four uh tier five got hubard Rogers Taylor Moore Matt Wallace Nick Dunlap hoard and Hustler hoard could be interesting give me Matt Wallace it’s between Wallace and hoard I’ll take Matt Wallace just extremely confident in him this week and then finally tier six Ben Kohl’s Carson Young Bryce Garnett Sammy balamaki Pearson goody Parker gy and Nick Hardy for me it’s between Nick Hardy and Carson young probably take Carson young I think it’s fine Nick Hardy could be interesting as well but there’s this tier’s construction is going to go Min W Le Taylor pendri uh tier three will’ll go Davis Thompson hopefully hopefully getting some uniqueness there tier four we’re going to go go with Keith Mitchell tier five we’re going to go Matt Wallace and tier six we’re going to go Carson young all right let’s uh let’s shift our Focus to Classic lineups try to build some of these chalkier lineups that uh that our fellow contestants are making and how we can maneuver around that so quite clearly it Tom Kim is the most projected own player uh 30% per gab Source now fantasy National only has him at 177% um I’m I’m just I I I think I don’t see I don’t see anything less than 30% for Tom Kim I can see 30 to 35 on Tom Kim I just I don’t see how he isn’t the number one owned player this week considering his form and and everything with that so we’re going to start this with Tom Kim uh probably Taylor pendri but um you know if we were to go by gab Source that’s going to be really difficult because gab source does not have anybody uh in the sixes or fives more than eight or nine% so if we were to go straight by fantasy National it’ be Tom Kim and Taylor pendri uh this would bottom out of Justin low who I you know I love um and then you see low at least per fantasy National at 12 A2 um and then you know they would come up to maybe Wallace or zinon let’s go Wallace um again Wallace is only sitting at 10% per gab sour so I’m really hoping he’s less than what fantasy National is suggesting um and then you know in the upper eights or excuse me upper sevens or low eight uh maybe Davis Thompson you got Adam vinsent at 10 a half per fantasy National leaves 7900 Ben Griffin’s not getting a whole lot here uh we might have to adjust a little bit let’s see you got low no one really else so maybe maybe this is why the members of fantasy National aren’t going Tom Kim they’re doing something more like OE and and pendrith then going Wallace down here ah yeah this is this is more what they are doing uh Keith Mitchell ah it’s 100 more dang it this is 100 over but I’m just uh I’m highlighting the chalki plays in this area you know maybe instead of uh batia pendrith maybe they go pendri and Jagger um but these are the chalky plays in their areas of the price board mad mcney could absolutely be in this as well so maybe it’s like OE and MAV yeah that could work but cumulative ownership in the mid 90s is going to be duplicated quite a bit we’re looking at a Tom Kim lineup trying to build one of these for you all so you can you can know what to expect uh if we look at Gabe Source like Vincent’s definitely getting some attention um Taylor yeah Taylor Moore is is going to get some get some attention as well uh I’ve got those backwards uh um you know pick whoever you want in the in the nines other than zorus and Ricky maybe it’s batia I know he’s the most expensive but he’s the most owned batia pendri joerger McNeely even Aaron Ry actually could could be in this as well um but you know according to gab source that you know our fellow contestants really aren’t going into the sixes and that’s what I’m hoping because I there’s a lot I like in the sixes um let’s see if we try to put Aaron Ry here this is yeah that’s going to be way too tough Vincent Ry Davis Thompson Keith Mitchell [Music] 68 yeah it’s just going to be tough that would be Justin low maybe Doug gim Doug gim’s not getting as much on um fantasy National but this is this is the kind of lineups you can maybe expect with a Tom Kim maybe it’s Kim Ry or McNeely Davis Thompson or um Mitchell then coming down to Vinson Moore Matt Wallace and rounding out with the 6K of their choice so how are we going to combat this how are we going to maneuver around all this chalk well I’ve told you the type of lineups I’m building I don’t mind double dipping in the sixes so first let’s try to build a balance lineup shall we um if that’s the route you want to go going to be a little bit more difficult just because I’m like everybody else I love pendri I love batia this week I’m not necessarily as high on joerger um but I think we can find some some good values here in the sevens um in fact at the bottom half of the sevens like we can look at Nikolai hoard as the bottom of our lineup I think this is going to work I mean he’s only eight eight and a half% per fantasy National he is 9% per gab Source like I think this is a a great way on a Balan lineup to ensure you get some uniqueness and again pick the one player that you want I’m going to go with Taylor pendri here this very well could be OE it could be Jagger if you’re that high on him um maybe not McNeely I’m not as high on mcne I don’t think I’d start my team with McNeely but you know we’re going to go pendri definitely going to go with Mitchell I know this is this is chalky but this is the this is the challenge of trying to build a balanced lineup this week because the players that are obvious plays are just um there’s not a lot around them um pendrith Mitchell absolutely I would put Chris Kirk into this I don’t mind Chris Kirk at all uh Eric Van royan absolutely fits into this in fact we got you know 87 or yeah 8700 like Bobby Mack I don’t hate by any means so like if we if we were to put Bobby into this you know we’re at a a sub 75% lineup with pendrith who is one of the tournament favorites Bobby maku is in great form right now Mitchell I’m I’m really high on Kirk might be a little bit more speculative but I’m telling you EVR is going to be solid this week hoard’s probably going to be pretty good with his distance at this course doesn’t have to worry about any trouble off the te this is a lineup that if I were interested in a balanced build this is the one I would I would be interested in but more often than not the kind of lineups that I’m building have been double sixes anchored with again my number one player Justin low now here I can go several different ways I can make Justin low my lowest own and then go to Rio hits atsun who I like I didn’t talk about him but Chandler Phillips could be interesting um but generally I’ve been going like low and Sh Kim low and spawn low and Hadley I’ve been doing doing these double sixes here um I’m going to go with SH Kim I’m really really high on sh Kim if you’re willing to go double sixes is you’re going to be gaining a lot of uniqueness a lot of Leverage on your fellow contestants again perk gabes Source not a single player in the sixks is over 9% Doug gim and Adam shank are at eight and eight and a half so you’re going to be gaining a lot and this allows us to to do quite a bit up here in the T and the nines where I think the the best plays are again I’m going to go with Min wo Le I’m hoping he’s a little bit more along fantasy Nationals ownership you know more in the 15 to 18 as opposed to the 23 that Gabe source is projecting but I still like this fit for him I I’m going Matt Wallace love everything about him and we got 9600 per player per player we could double dip and go Alex noren we could go batia we can go pendrith again I’m not necessarily gosh dang it I’m not necessarily as on McNeely but mcne and you’re leaving another thing too you can leave quite a bit of money on the table and leave yourself and make yourself unique in that regard um if we go uh let’s see if we if we come up of Wallace like we go EVR goes vincon Chris Kirk like uh if we made yeah this is like Keith Mitchell Mitchell I guess um again 8500 Davis Thompson Chris Kirk Egan royan again I’m just really high on Matt Wallace I’m really high on Keith Mitchell like I that’s leaving a whole lot of money on the table maybe you don’t want to go double sixes like you you’re left at 7500 here maybe you like Taylor Moore in his course history throw in hyart into this this that would work [Music] you know little bit little bit higher per fantasy National because of Justin low and Matt Wallace these guys are not nearly that high per gab source so I uh these are the kind of lineups that I’ve been building I’m trying to squeeze in two players of these minus cam young because I’m just full fading him so I’m trying to fit in a Tom Kim A Min wle and Alex noren a batia a pendrith sprinkle a little bit of Jagger and I’ll I’ll include mcneilan in that sprinkle a little bit of mcneel I’m trying to fit two of those six at the top here and I have no issue going double six so again Justin low I win shim let’s TR chest Hadley um I went Min Le this time let’s go Tom Kim and Alex noren try that out we still have 8,000 per player you can squeeze in you know a Keith Mitchell a mad mcne if you want Bobby Mack or you can balance this out go like an Eric van royan and then Adams Vincent Matt Wallace hoard again I uh I’m going to take a chance on Kevin U and his ball striking which leaves 89 which is MAV who I know a lot of people like this week I’m not necessarily as high on but you’re still a sub 75% willing to go into the double sixes a lower seven you’re squeezing in three of the tournament favorites you know Daniel Burger could also fit in this as well hoard Wallace so these are the types of lineups I’ve been building uh I call it stars and scrubs you can consider it Superstars and super scrubs if you want um but i’ been I’ve just been trying to get two of these six in as many of my lineups as possible two of these five really sprinkling a little little Jagger and a little mcne that’s what I have for you all this evening I want to thank everybody for tuning in watching listening supporting the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing I always appreciate it uh looks like the 6 to 10 number is is the winner of our poll uh and that’s where I’m at I’ve got about eight players that are my core like I mentioned Tom Kim minw Le is going to be core for me Patia and pendri are going to be core Keith Mitchell Matt Wallace and Justin low that is essentially my core um this week so if those players don’t play well I’ll lose so I am in the six to 10 fairly spread out in terms of a core as well one and done my first selection was Taylor pendrith that’s who I have still selected right now I could go batia I could go norin those two are fine Mitchell is also fine but despite the fact that I think he’ll be chalky I think Taylor pinr the right call in one and done he’s got course history here he’s in good form it’s very rare that you find both of those coming into a tournament so I’ll take Taylor pendrith more than likely as my oneand done the only reason I’m hesitant is I think he’ll be the most um chosen one and done but right now I’ll take Taylor pendrith in one and done thanks again for tuning in um reminder that I’ll be over in gab substack chat here we’re going to continue continue the DFS talk over there momentarily you don’t want to miss out it’s always a great discussion every week and throughout the week and weekend reach out to me on social media in the comments of the video uh let me know how you are doing this week for the rocket morgage did you get into the uh 150 Max entry Penny contest you know a penny per entry 150 Max uh I’m going to try my hand at that um so it would be interested to hear how you all are doing this week for the rocket mortgage so thanks again for all the Wagers you’ve made this week for the rocket mortgage for all the DFS contests you play this week for the rocket mortgage for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
