2024 John Deere Classic Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | 2024 Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 John Deere Classic Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
2:23 Course Flyover/Notes
7:29 John Deere Classic Winners History
14:02 Course Stats
19:23 John Deere Classic History
23:59 Stat Model/Field
32:29Guess The Odds

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a experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now to get yourself a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks smash a like sub to the channel where you’re here and the audio podcast we’re still rooting on Tambo in Detroit for the fantasy golf world championships but it doesn’t look like right now as the time of this recording that he’s going to pull through and be able to get give away the 50k but hopefully he still you know finishes not last and then we can boost up that prize po Tambo will be back in studio with me on Wednesday to talk it through you know cheer him on he was a really generous offer that he was putting out to give away 5% of his winnings at this event I know how much he wanted to come in first place and have a super high cash for both himself and everyone else who supported him along the way so he’s going to be super disappointed without like a top five finish so you know we love you Tambo I know there’s a lot of support out there so you know wish him you know better luck next time cuz he’ll probably get himself into it just like he does for the football ones and the king of the beach and everything like that so I just want to give a shout out to our guy Tambo down in Detroit right now and shout out to everyone who’s trying to have a good week to hit an outright winner we got Runners kind of in Detroit I need Jake nap to go super low here uh after the delay on Saturday I’m filming this a little bit early because it’s Canada day on Monday and I’m in Canada which means it’s a long weekend take it the boys out to the lake trying to get them some swimming in spend some high quality family time with my f so I hope you and your family are safe and I know this is going to happen for everyone next weekend South of the Border but don’t worry Jeff and I will be in studio on Monday to do the pick show it’s just on Tuesday I think we’re going football then Tambo Wednesday in studio then football again I got meanie in studio on Tuesday I believe for football and then Jake on America day so you know let’s have a great week all right let’s hopefully one of our guys can come from behind maybe it’s going to be Andrea pav in Italy for us to really come through but that’s what we’re seeing right now we got the John Deere Classic this week uh the field is a little bit stronger than you think when we get to the field you’ll see but it’s no longer the week before the Open Championship it used to be a win and you’re in type sit sit situation to get on the charter over to the United Kingdom to play in the Open Championship but I do think there are three spots or two spots available at the top of the leaderboard for those not also qualified but now the week after the John Deere classic is going to be the Scottish open where you’re probably going to see a pretty significant type of talent field so that usually lends to the John Deere classic not being the strongest although that’s not necessarily the case this year let’s take a look at the course when we’re talking birdie Fest we’re talking TPC Deer Run we got 7289 yards a par 71 bent grass green 79 bunkers scattered around the course in three holes with water in play we’ve seen Michael Kim go as low as minus 27 at this course and one of the most dominating performances I I still can’t believe it happened and I’m checking my notes Here I have some guy named Bryce day Shambo as a winner in 2017 I think it’s GNA be Bryson although it might be his brother who knows no it wasn’t it was Bryson when he was still wearing pre beefy Bryson won the John Deere classic straco won last year at minus 21 JT postm won at minus 21 the year before that but I kind of feel for the John Deere classic for the longest time when they would refer to the PLAYERS Championship as the fifth major I would just kind of joke that the John classic is the 19th major but this is a tournament that’s been been around forever and I really do like it you have people watching on their boats in the river coming down 17 and 18 this was a fantastic spot when spe had his breakout in 2015 he shot that 61 on Saturday and then chipped in from the bunker to run down Zack Johnson and I just really like watching this one it’s like I almost say it’s like King of the Ring in the mid90s but you know Brett Hart was the first winner then Owen Hart was the second winner of the pay-per-view versions but it’s kind of like the mid card everyone from the mid card normally speaking you would find here and that’s what you’ve seen as winners over the years like these guys that are just you think that they’re good you think that they could break through are they ever going to do anything else we don’t know you had the upand comer with spe sorry it’s was 2013 he won in 2015 as well but he won in 2013 as a 19-year-old I believe then Brian Haron wins the next year Ryan Moore wins Bryson de Shambo gets his breakthrough win at this course same as Michael Kim Glover wins for the first time in like a decade in 2021 Poston gets a win sta getss a win so these guys that are just teetering that you like to bet in tournaments but you’d much rather bet them at 65 to1 and you probably never bet them in a signature event that’s the kind of tournament that this is but you just think that it where it was previously held before the Open Championship the winner would get in there was like real Stakes to that it felt and now it doesn’t because where it’s been push back and the Scottish open just draws a lot of interest some of the bigger names that you would normally see aren’t playing this week although this time around guys trying to get out of a funk before the Open Championship are going to give that but we’re seeing a lot of young players in the field this week so that’s pretty exciting we take a look at the par 3es there are four of them 195 yards is the average three of them rank amongst the seven toughest holes on the course all with a birdie rate under 16% and a double or Worse rate of at least 1% that’s always nice to hear straa was one over on the par 3es through Friday a year ago but closed things down over the weekend going three under on the par three on Saturday and Sunday 11 par fours the average distance 435 yard the two toughest holes on the course are par fours to end each nine 503 yard number nine owns the highest bogey rate on the property well number 18 476 yards is home to the highest double or worst percentage at 4.3% straa made five Bogies in his win last season four of them came on Power Force two on number nine and famously double bogy the last toy I think he would have been he had a chance to it was either par or birdie for 59 and he ended up making double bogey but still ended up closing the door anyway just sitting there W out posted a score had a fantastic Sunday and that was that the par fives 576 yards three of the four easiest holes on the course with number two seeing over the half the field birdi it and 4% of the field make an eagle and rounds two and three a year ago straa birdied both back nine power fives he birdied all three of the per power five on Friday we’ll get more to the DraftKings streak when we take a look at the scorecard over on fantasy National both nines close in difficult fashion so there isn’t likely to be a ton of streaks that bridge either turn that said going back to front gives you access to 16 and 17 and one and two four holes that are among the six easiest on the course so if you can make a birdie on 18 that has a 133% birdie rate you can sandwich it either way you can go 181 2 or 17 16 17 and 18 if you can do that where hole number n only has a 9% birdie rate so it’s marginally better to start on the back if you’re really trying to mine a birdie streak at the turn of any of these it’s just probably not very likely taking a look at all the winners straa was minus 21 beat Todd and Alex SMY by two he was 11 back after Thursday but CED nothing worse than 65 after the opening 73 and picked up five Strokes on both SMY and Todd on Sunday eight golfers picked up over five Strokes putting for the week their finishing positions were 1 2 4 6 6 6 6 and 21 got to make your putts here you don’t have to go absolutely nuclear on the greens but it is pretty helpful to do that it saves a lot of problems for you either way JT Poston finished at minus 21 that was a very popular bet that week I did not hit it I think Jeff did I was on CZ that week who came in second place tied with amanoo it was the first round Leader by Two Strokes he was five better than Grio through two days and seven better than Bez they kind of made it up over the weekend but Poston was just way out in front it really did matter he had a big lead going into Sunday the top seven finishers all gained on the field in proximity from over 200 yards five of them lost Strokes inside 100 yards however looking at it and knowing the types of players that we’ve seen finish at the top of leaderboards the type of players that they are you will just see a lot of really really good wedge players everyone kind of hits the fairways here even if you hit the rough it’s not that big of a deal there’s many undulations in the Fairway you don’t have a lot of even lies it’s kind of akin to caloa that way and it’s not a significant crossover between those two courses but we did see Stricker win this tournament three times in a row obviously he has won at kappal leis spe has won this tournament twice I believe he’s won twice at kaaloa and Zach Johnson is another dual winner of both those very good wedge players hitting it off either slightly above or below your feet obviously spe has been very good at the Masters as well and so is Zach Johnson it’s not to say hey if they’re good at the ma obviously if you’re good at the Masters you should be beaten up on a pretty terrible field at the John Deere but just funny that those names all kind of circle around and we do know those places both very hilly and very few flat lies around the grounds Lucas Glover broke that streak in 2021 two clear of Ryan Moore and Kevin NS so we’re sensing a theme here these are I mean Glover is a very good T degree player but he’s very accurate off the te he’s a terrible putter but he putted well that week but very good with his wedges Ryan Moore terrible putter but very good with his wedges Kevin great putter also still very good with his wedges not very long off the tea Glover was tied for the best round on Friday in 2021 with a 63 and Sunday with a 64 four better than more in N to help offset the 68 on Thursday and 70 on Saturday worth noting too with staka it was he was he was 11 shots off the lead after Thursday and just really Blitz the field Jonas Blicks jumped out to a lead of minus 9 to kick things off in 2023 so one bad round will probably syn you but it’s not impossible at this course in 2021 each of the top 10 finishers gain Strokes putting from 10 to 15t with Glover easily being the best plus 4.1 Strokes gained on the field from that range no one else was above three Strokes gain so when you hit it to 14 feet and make all your birdie putts you’re probably going to win hot dialon fatelli won in 2019 I totally forgot that which was a really bizarre one one top 25 finisher lost Strokes on approach and it was ferelli who lost almost a stroke you never see people win tournaments that way but Dion ferelli did it he picked up a total of 12.3 Strokes between chipping and putting and then there was the 2018 year with Michael Kim minus 28 eight clear of Damon Molinari ryer and Bronson bergon he led going into the weekend 6364 and then 64 again on Saturday I think he shot even par in the final rabbit he was just so far up on the field he gained 13.5 Strokes when I interviewed Michael Kim earlier this year we talked about this a little bit it was and he was just like you know sometimes it clicks and yeah he was 16th D to Green that week and a lot of that had to do with what he did on Sunday where he just didn’t really seem like he gave a he was just yeah I’ll hit it to 40 feet every time don’t worry about me just don’t make double Boge and I’m GNA run away with this and he did so shout out to Michael Kim and he’s playing some good golf in Detroit so maybe uh we give another look to Michael Kim coming in this weekend the lowest driving accuracy that we’ve seen at this course was in 2022 it was 6 3% that’s the lowest it had been since 2000 but generally speaking the average driving accuracy at TPC Deer Run even with that 63% factored in is 71% and because there’s the four par 3es this week so if we just think about that 70% time 14 just to think about Underdog a little bit that’s 9.8 Fairway so if anything is over 9 and a half or nine even on some of the less accurate players in the field the more accurate players you would think would actually hit more than that but anything like the higher than 9 and a half and they they’ve been really dialing back on greens and regulation and driving accuracy numbers since the US Open we really beat them up for like three weeks in a row so shout out to anyone who used code Mayo to positive then won a bunch of money on Fairway props but we’ll see if they release them on Wednesday like Wednesday evening they dropped last week so they’re really waiting till the last second even after I released my newsletter sub for free down in the description to this show but just keep an eye on that like sometimes being first of the scene is uh what you need to do with these to take advantage of the good lines hell my entire career is based on being first of the scene if I hadn’t started a podcast in 2010 Lord knows I’d be working at Staples right now I probably wouldn’t even have a job who knows who knows what would be happening to me 8.6 or sorry 8′ 6 in is the proximity around the green chipping in 2022 the fifth longest average of any on the PGA tour so chipping was hard in that year and it’s been pretty difficult although players don’t really miss a ton of greens and regulation at this course with the green and regulation percentage being around 70% but you know if you do miss the green it is kind of difficult to get it up and down 77 feet and 3 in is the average feet of putts made for the field this a very easy putting course almost 20% of putts between 15 fet and 25 ft go in the hole that’s astronomical it’s top five of any course on tour from that distance so when we get to the model in a second you’re you’re going to see that I actually weighted 5 to 10 ft a lot more because random chance I mean good Putters are going to excel obviously but 10 if it’s easier putting from 15 to 25t like bad Putters are going to have good weeks from that range that you would normally see the the Crux of the putting really does come down in the predictability from that 5 to 10 feet range who is draining those right now that could really make a difference because there’s been 40,000 birdies or more uh uh since 2000 which is the most of any course on tour and was no Co year there was no tournament here in 2020 so keep that in mind 359 birdies are better by Zack Johnson is the most of any player in this event since 2000 jumping over to the scorecard at fantasy national.com fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself that 20% off get all these stats all these tools and get access to the best leaderboard app in the biz it truly is great like honest to God I am not overselling how great this app is like if you think that the PGA tour app sucks which it does you’re going to want the fantasy National app for real time it’s a close to real time as you’re going to get we have the same feed as all of the gambling sites which are way ahead of the PGA tour for reasons unknown I suppose and we have it laid out in a way that it gives you shot by shot realtime Strokes gained all on an app it’s you don’t have to reload a page it reloads for you in real time so fantasy national.com Mayo to get that 20% off the app itself is worth it but that’s just a throwin right now on what we’re doing so as I mentioned before is it’s just under 7300 yard as a par 71 you can see the eagle rate isn’t super high it is I mean 4% is super high for number two number 17 2.5% so and that has a 41% birdie rate bogy rate of 9% though because you can get yourself into some trouble on that hole and then a 32% on the power five at number 10 number 14 is the other easy hole on the course it’s 361 yards maybe someone can drive it in this field but I wouldn’t really be looking at that but it still has a 35% birdie rate all in all we take a look at birdie rates on this course there are what we have here 1 two three four five six seven eight and we’ll throw the 19.7 is good enough for 20% so we’ll call 10 holes with a birdie rate north of 20% or more and there’s a few more 18 the lowest ones I mentioned before is number nine the hardest hole on the course we take a look at ranking is number nine then it’s 18 those two power fours then number 15 pretty tough as well with almost a 20% bogey rate versus a 133% birdie rate and a double or Worse rate of 2.5% number 10 also has a pretty high Double Or Worse rate and only a 17% birdie rate but you know it kind of equals itself out but you can make a big number at number 11 so you just need to like basically push on these holes and then just go score on the holes that are super scorable and you can see approach in putting is how the top 10 has done it over time and a lot of that when we take a look at the proximity range it’s just really good wedge players even to take a look at the top five you see more of it as well over a stroke per round on approach over a stroke putting per round about half a stroke is you know four10 of a stroke or what is that two fifths of a stroke there we go I’m getting back to uh dumbing down my fractions a little bit more going to the lowest common denominator per round off the tea and you know 3535 per round so basically if you can just not lose Strokes around the green you’re going to be good beat up on the power fives beat up on the power push on the power 3 is pretty simple strategy and then you take a look at the average shot distribution here the buckets it’s all just kind of scattered around like even 133% 100 to 125 that’s a very high percentage from that range 20% 125 to 150 so basically this is the range that I’m concerned about yes the 200 plus is going to be important for generating Eagle opportunities and generating easier you know even to some of the longer par fours making that easy the longer par 3es what’s the what’s the longest part three here it’s two 215 and 226 yeah so that’s going into that bucket of the 200 plus so yeah you need to be good there uh and you don’t even need to put it close you’re probably going to make you’re going to make your putt one fif of the time from 20 feet anyway so just put it there and hope to get lucky but this is the scoring range basically 75 to 150 but and even on some of the power fivs I believe it’s number 10 is the one or maybe it’s number 17 depends on how long you are I suppose in this field I just remember Ryan Moore laying back I can’t remember if it was number 10 or number 17 just every day he would hit it to 105 yards on his layup and just stick it on that green that’s by the water you can get it to roll down the Sunday pin is in the back right and you’re Off to the Races but that’s where that is really going to come in handy if you’re making your putts and you’re hitting it close from this range uh you’re not necessarily going to win but you’re going to have a chance to win put it that way the historic cut line it’s 156 players in this field this time around so minus three a year ago so higher than what we’re going to see in Detroit it was four four under in Detroit this time around two under three under two under two under one under two under three under so three under is probably a pretty good estimation if your guys get into the clubhouse at minus four through two rounds they’re almost essentially guaranteed to play the weekend so keep that in mind as mentioned before a 71% driving accuracy rate again in 2022 it was down to 63% the lowest it had ever been that’s much higher than your average PGA Tour event by almost 10 percentage points and a green regul percentage of 70% as well scrambling uh a little bit easier here than the average Tour event although chipping can be a little bit difficult but that’s easily made up because the highest percentage of putts made from that longer distance goes a long way into helping you out in the scrambling percentage three putts per round a little bit lower average driving distance a little bit higher and then the average proximity to the hole from uh in greens and regulation is only 27 ft that is below the 29% that we normally see um the PGA Tour I already went through what happened uh tournament history-wise in terms of the past few years uh as I mentioned even before Michael Kim you had Bryson spe Hermon and spe but to take a look at Strokes gain total over the past five years not everyone plays it every single year but Glover has been the best three top 10 in a miscut in his past four starts not bad Adam shank three top sixes in a withdraw I used him in one and done and bet him in 2022 when he withdrew I remember that very vividly and he was cut in 2018 again there was no 2020 event so Glover shank more Sheamus power powers on my short list already of players to look at this week he has been for a little while now Denny you know back toback top 10 each of the past two years top 20s for Alex SMY came in second hubard has been really good but again hubard changed his swing he’s gaining more Strokes off the tea but we just have not been seeing it in terms of his regularly good approach play the putting has still been pretty good he kind of fits the mold of the typee of player that you would think that you would see at this course do really well um he just he’s been lingering around we’ve all bet him to win at 125 for five years now and he just never gets there and you can see by his results they haven’t been great his best performance was at Pebble Beach but I really wish Tom hogi was playing this week I would lose so much money on Tom hogi but he’s not in the field and even like this week with hubard like he’s putting pretty well he’s chipping very poorly he made the cut to continue his massive cut streak you can see he’s made every cut cut in 2024 so very safe but he’s not providing any sort of upside recently although he had you know he played the US Open made the cut played the PGA Championship he’s just kind of middling it feels like he’ll pull it all together but you know right now that’s not really going his way how’s Denny playing recently you know make doing his thing making Cuts you know gaining a bunch of Strokes putting losing a bunch off the tea not as important this week off the tea in terms of being able to really be an elite driver of the ball that could be a cheat code this week it’s it doesn’t hurt to drive the ball really well but hitting your wedges and making all your putts is going to be really the key thing and we saw Denny do that very well against OE earlier this year until the playoff when he like I don’t know pulled his layup wedge into the drink and that was the end of it that was really bizarre uh how that ended up shaking out that Travelers for it’s funny with Sheamus power he’s just playing elevated events this is kind of the point I made about Jake knap going into last week’s show when I wrote him up I mean hopefully he can win that would be really nice let’s take a look at the leaderboard here on the app that I’m looking at get I still have Mark hubard start here how you doing Jake Napp you made a birdie yet today no of course not of course he’s one over through two holes Jabron figure it oh man all my guys are terrible day Cy overpower Fox three overpower nap overpar at least hoard’s putting for Eagle in real time as I’m doing that to to Really time stamp this one out Davis Thompson’s 4un at the moment so was roa’s Boy Luke Clanton good for him but it’s been elevated events for Sheamus power that he has just been playing pretty well he cashes that top 20 right on the number at The Travelers Championship but he will be in this field and you know the approach play has been pretty good the putting is starting to come around and ideally I think if we just go to take a look at his proximity numbers I mean in my mind Sheamus power is a very good wedge player and he does play easy courses really well and difficult courses really well uh he just doesn’t happen to play uh the mediocre courses all that good so yeah very good from 100 to 125 just gaining on the field over his past 5 10 and 20 tournaments historically been very good from 125 to 150 and very good from 150 to 175 as well so you can see he’s always picking up in those buckets you know some courses have it some don’t when to really weigh them out but uh I would like his wedge play coming into this week uh just kind of look for the Ryan Moore profile like Ryan Moore who can Putt and that’s really what you want to do so who else has played this well forell is in the field he’s been playing in Europe he’s been like 200 to1 in European tournaments I believe he played in the Italian open this week so he’s coming a long way over MAV might be a nice flop leg after you know very poor first round at the rocket mortgage although he’s rebounded pretty nicely he made the cut but he’s probably going to come outside the top 30 for the week which is you know no great shakes by any means but he’s has two top 20s and his only two starts here you can see you know straa won he had no finish better than t26 in his career Sig is top 20s each of the past two years gett played well he won a Myrtle Beach earlier this year hasn’t really done much sense but that’s what we’re looking for for the field but when we talk about the field overall there are a few key names to note because guys that need to play themselves into form and they’re not playing great at the moment but you do see names like Patrick Klay is playing in this tournament spe sunjay day those four players I mean spe sure he hasn’t been here in a while and he’s won this tournament twice so maybe it’s a spot for him to get off the schneide it’s all struggling players at the moment really looking to gain some form before the Scotti and the Open Championship and really try to turn their games around out of that Bunch Klay and sunj are playing the best at the moment but even in this field with the model that I’ve run now I’ll show you what it is here in a second klay’s in The Strokes gain model is only 10th over the past 12 rounds he did have a very good US Open a very good ah was he very good at The Travelers I think he was top 10 at The Travelers yeah it was fifth at The Travelers so it’s starting to come around for him a little bit he has never played this event so it’ll be the first time seeing it but he’s played well at the Masters in the past so that’s you know good you know good for anything and he’s played well against very strong Fields so it’s kind of a step down for him in terms of quality of field so maybe he’ll end up running away with it or maybe he’s not going to be great sj’s just been top 10 or bust recently but you can see that the putting’s starting to come back a little bit the approach play every few weeks is starting to come back and he’s very good off the tea and he always has a very good short game so sunj would probably be my favorite of the four that I just named of Klay spe day and then sunj and then you get into your next part of the field which is like Glover Ry Denny Poston straa putam Mitchell like that mid tier that we kind of saw in Detroit this week so building out the stat model I have John Deer trust it more and we’ll look at the past 12 rounds and here’s what I have in terms of how I have everything allocated for the stats this week approach 31% I just used the slider bars on fantasy National to do this uh and to figure it out birdies are better gained 133% on the field proximity 125 6% 150 to 175 133% so that should make Sheamus power pretty good ball striking and power FES at 4% 175 to 200 par 3es at 7% putting 9% from 5 to 10 feet and then Strokes gain Tina green at 12% so that’s what I have let’s take a look at the leaders over the past 12 rounds Kelly craft smelly Kelly coming in number one I don’t have the rocket mortgage stats in here so far because obviously that tournament isn’t even it’s bar half over as I’m recording this so then you got chan Kim forchan then Kevin Yu who it’s really funny because Kevin Yu has not gain Strokes putting since like January or something like that just a sea a red you need Moses to come in here and part that out for him and then he’ll be fine but Phoenix was the last time he gained Strokes putting 1.4 but the best putting performance of his career at this tournament last year eight Strokes putting it was like the only time in the past 18 months he hasn’t gained a bunch of Strokes on approach so Kevin Yu is somewhat interesting here if he can keep that going now stats would say the dude cannot putt to save his life so that’s somewhat problematic and besides his 7.9 here the Sony Open in 2023 he gained almost four and that’s been it those are the two by far best performances of his career so I wouldn’t count on a ton from him so he’s third in the rankings even ranking 155th from 5 to 10 feet MAV Ry who might end up winning in Detroit then might pull out and just go the Scottish open collie Davis Thompson Russell Knox is in this field Seb straa Klay Keith Mitchell Keith Mitchell dude that there’s a guy who can’t make a six foot putt couldn’t get it up and down on the last hole to make the cut this weekend thanks for nothing Keith not so much of a Killa anymore might go back to him this week the odds are good Daniel Berger Bridgeman lonto Michael Kim Ben Griffin Lee Hodges I’ll probably go back to Lee Hodges although he’s not having a great did not have a great week in Detroit but he was kind of setting up to be that guy who could break through and win then have Sheamus power low Zack Johnson Chandler Phillips olison is up there as well but to take a closer look at Sheamus power we did that a little bit earlier third in this field from 150 to 175 first on par FS 10th in 5 to 10 putting that’s kind of the profile that we’re looking for coming in so that’s encouraging to see I’m going to drop back and take a look at the past 24 rounds Anders Albertson where’s this guy been he gained I I don’t even want to look at it yet just because it so sticks out in my mind he was such a model darling for the first part of one season because he had one tournament where he gained an absolutely incredible amount of Strokes T to green and it just stayed in the system and it was so much where is it t to Green there it is yeah the Sanderson Farms in 2018 gained 13.6 Strokes T to Green he has not gained more than 4.2 in any other event in his career but that just a spike almost 11 we thought we didn’t know who this guy was like he can gain almost 11 Strokes on approach in a tournament signed me up for this guy and he’s just been abysmal was the last time he played he played Rico and came 21st earlier this year good times for Anders Albertson just thought it was funny that he was in the field but I wanted to take a look at the proximity ranges so if we can take a look at wedges and putting maybe we can even concoct another model here to see if there’s anything that we can find you know good and see if there’s anyone who just rates out really well from 100 to 125 over the past 24 rounds so we need to see a sea green so you got Russell Knox didn’t even realize Russell Knox was still on the PGA tour but here we are dude’s got to be old now he’s probably playing in the oddsh tooo no finish better than 44th so far this year and hasn’t played since put Tana so we’ll probably not play him this week CT pan is Good from 150 and 100 to 125 Kelly craft is a very good wedge player so was Joel Damon keep Joel Damon in mind as well can’t remember if he made the putt or not cut or not in Detroit this week Ryan Moore as always Sheamus power Rio Hune kizner probably not this would be a really good Aaron Ry tournament if he could make some putts more on that later I mean not even later can he make make some putts we don’t know maybe he’ll make enough in Detroit to end up winning Carson young Klay so Klay rates out kind of the best of the bigger names Glover Mitchell nap dialon W is up there as well so let’s try to build out something new maybe I have this already in my models wedges and putting go to wedges we’ll turn on the wedges model and then we’ll refresh the page to see if there is anyone who’s just kind of an outlier in this regard and we can kind of look at it through different types of ranges I got to turn on that model not manage models I need to go to wedges there we go and just see what I have no idea what this model is let’s see 75 to 100 100 to 125 125 to 150 and then putting from 5 to 10 10 to 15 ft we’ll throw in 150 to 175 as well just to get a good you know that close proximity range and just give a benefit of the doubt to some of the shorter hitters who might be better although probably don’t need the 75 to 150 and we’ll try to wait it out like we saw in terms of the bucket so 75 to 100 was a little bit lower 100 to 125 was a little bit lower and then 125 to 150 was up there so we’ll go yeah you can see it on the screen right now double 16s for both those key putting ranges 23 and 21 for 125 to 150 to 175 16 for 100 to 125 and then 9% for 75 to 150 and see if it gives us anyone of note uh Pearson Pearson cotie oh here we go yeah I like to see that all right betting cooe for second week in a row will lose money put a star next to that one low Chandler Phillips Denny and this is over the past 12 rounds we can we can look at it over 36 or 24 if you want to do that as well sunjay is up there Taylor Montgomery is having a really nice week so a lot of the same names Andrew putam kind of fits the perfect guy to win this tournament he’s just been playing like okay all year long and he just does exactly I mean he sucks off that he’s been really bad uh with his approach game after the first part of the Year where he was actually pretty good in some of these tournaments but Colonial he should have been good Travelers Memorial against the best in the world we wouldn’t expect him to be good but look at those putting and short game stats he can just get back to what he was doing through the Florida swing in like February and March that makes him a real Contender at this tournament whether or not he’ll do it I have no idea but he has been very good from these ranges William mcgurt so there’s Glover coocher Mitchell there’s MAV he’s up there as well Novak probably go back to him Parker Parker Coy CT pan Hodges is still pretty good the putting really does let him down so those are some of the names that we’re looking at this week well that gets us to everyone’s favorite part of the show guess the odds again these aren’t real odds this is just what I’m guessing it’s going to be for the John Deere classic I could be wildly wrong forget I always forget like one name like one important name when I go through this but I have the big five which I will talk about this week There’s the four that I named earlier and I think that straa having been on the Ryder Cup team playing good Golf and a guy that people have been betting at good numbers so far in the near past and being the defending Champion will be a part of that crew as well I have all four of them under 20 to1 Klay at 12 spe and sunjay at 14 day and straa at 18 I do think that I even to look at some of the names that have played well at this tournament and one in the past that have gone on to make the finals of the FedEx Cup have played pretty well at East Lake in the past obviously Ryan Moore and Jordan spe Klay has played really well there so if you want to go take a look at East Lake to of cross reference there’s not many players in the field this week who have played at East Lake but that could just be another out to take a look at as well after that I have no one in the 20s which is probably wrong but I have this grouping of actually I have Ry Ry at 28 if he wins he probably won’t play anyway if he comes in second he’ll probably get his open if he comes in second I think he gets his Open Championship spot because of Detroit but he’ll be playing for another one here I have him at 28 to1 after that I have Denny and Glover at 33 Poston and Davis Thompson at 3 3 to one MAV McNeely at 35 Keith Mitchell at 40 Cam Davis at 50 and then throw up your hands you’re going to see some weirdo names be wildly overpriced or way back in this field once the odds drop and then you know we’ll all bet it into place Jeff and I will talk about all of this on Monday show so I hope that was helpful for you if you’re Canadian enjoy your long weekend if you’re American you know get in those hours get your lineups in then have the best 4day weekend money can buy or money can’t buy if you’re staying at home play some golf spend some time with the fam and just have a great time all right fantasy national.com Mayo get you 20% off code Mayo at Underdog fantasy get you a deposit bonus of up to 20 or $250 again scan for those Fairway props once they’re released hit them early if they’re low enough because 70% is the driving accuracy percentage for the field as a whole at the John Deere classic smash likes up to the channel where you’re here and that free newsletter will always have more information in it all right I’m Pat May thanks for watching I’ll see you next time experience experience