Rocket Mortgage Classic + Italian Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 314 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic + Italian Open.
#rocketmortgageclassic #italianopen #detroitgolfclub #rickiefowler #tomkim #minwoo #pgatour #DFS #Golf #fantasygolf #PGA #OneAndDone #draftkings #underdogfantasy #fantasygolfpicks
 
Rocket Mortgage Classic + Italian Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
01:22 Steven from Arizona Listener Review
02:42 Paul’s Migliozzi 33/1 Win
17:59 Rocket Mortgage Classic Tips Start
46:46 Italian Open Tips Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/rocket-mortgage-classic-tips-2024/

Paul’s Italian Open Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/italian-open-tips-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/id1234973013
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Oo0Ivfnq4QQPch9SlRP5V Podbean: https://golfbettingsystem.podbean.com/
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Audioboom: https://audioboom.com/channels/4990651 Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/en/show/3353472

This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit GambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

if you li betting on golf but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf bank system podcast it’s episode 314 this is our 2024 rocket mortgage classic and Italian open tips podcast barri hanran and Paul Williams join me Steve Bamford to discuss our selection for this week’s PG and DP World T action good morning gentlemen morning guys morning guys visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have in-depth betting previews for both events Strokes gained rankings for the rocket mortgage we got form stats plus of course new and old predictor models for the rocket mortgage and Italian Open all of that content is available both ac across both events completely free of charge there is no paywall on X follow Barry at a good talk goal Paul is at golf betting I am at Bamford golf subscribe to the Steve banford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is available now you guys as listeners power this podcast so we need your five star reviews on Apple podcast as ever for those of you who leave a review I will read them out the start of a future show leave your name where you are in the leave your name and where you are in the review right this one is entitled betting system five stars hi guys enjoy the Agronomy discussion for some unknown reason I really enjoy the British slang to keep me thinking and of course I need to know who is next on the posted note of Doom take care and that is from stepen with a V and he’s in Scottsdale Arizona thank you for that Stephen brilliant stuff thanks Steven nice one Stephen Steve I think you should do a whole episode in Cockney just to re just to mess with everything potentially yeah I can see where you’re heading I think Steven would far more enjoy what we’ve moted in the past which is a sort of who’s going to be on the Post-it note of Doom sort of who who are the new entrance of the future many and varied AR now a couple of weeks ago Paul would have put Guido migotti on his Post-It note of Doom when he absolutely collapsed I’m trying to remember the event was it the one in Germany Steve I just these open I think it was these things just I I try to eradicate them from my memory when you get that kind of painful experience but but you’re right yeah he would have um he wasn’t particularly flavor of the uh day or week or month that that event but yeah I I remember what you said to me and whether it was on the Pod or privately I said you off mik show patience Paul show some patience and um yeah those were very Sage words Steph because um it paid off in the end I it’s never in doubt was it watching that final day oh Barry those those final day DP World Tour events are just mad aren’t they it it is you put it so perfectly you said the title is like a hot potato nobody seems to want it this really you know I got I got a tweet from uh Brett who who also backed gido and uh he said that he he managed to not watch the final nine holes which probably saved him saved him a few years of his life and I think that’s probably probably a strong sentiment because these these final day Sundays are um difficult aren’t they but yes he got there in the end actually you know from from where he was at halfway um you know and I was thinking well maybe get himself into contention round of the day on Saturday to get into the final group and then real up and down day needed that eight footer or so in the end to get into the playoff but I thought he was really good in the playoff maybe that little bit of experience that little bit of Gile um that saw him through in the end I wanted to watch it on Sky goo but I couldn’t so I had to watch the early coverage of the PJ to so I missed the whole lot which I was quite gutted about cuz I wanted to I wanted to see just the last few hes so I didn’t see that I he birded the LA he birded the par five didn’t he the 18th birded the 18th birded the first playoff hole and then yeah birded the second playoff H as well which yeah you can’t ask for a great deal more than that with everyone else starting to fault around him and uh yeah I you know we talked mentioned Joe Dean to you yesterday steveen I think you know he should take a lot from that um there’s there’s been a few you know signs over the last few weeks that he’s uh he’s capable of winning a tournament and to get that close suggests to me that he you know it’ll probably take him a few weeks to get back into the uh to the groove of things but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Joe Dean pop up and win a smaller event maybe over the summer so one one to keep an eye on I think he has a nice swing loads of freedom in there oh yeah big star one for the future when you went through the winners of the km open there were some decent players players in there and Guido kind of fits that mold he’s a he’s a he’s a decent staple of the DP World Tour isn’t he he’s a quality and he’s he’s won plenty of events now and good events yeah yeah fourth event and yeah could could have won more as we know but uh yeah yeah just nice to get one over the line in the end after a few near misses with uh with Thomas Peters and g a few weeks back as you say but then yeah what about you Steve another was that your your 151st uh Second Place finish of the Season I’m just going to read my opening paragraph to just remind me of the oh he’s my 11th second place finish in 25 events since the Sony Open that’s pretty crazy is it quite a few of them second to Scotty as well I SP well no don’t forget when I back Scotty he finishes second oh yeah so when I back Scotty he finishes second or completely bombs like he did at the US Open and then when I don’t back him he beats one of the guys that I put up in second place yeah that was a particularly cruel way to for it all unfold that the pin having to be moved meant that Tom kame had to Club down and and left it shorten the bunker Paul just said something there though there was there was something about that whole round and experience I mean Tom Tom and him are good mates aren’t they off the course Dallas Lads so SP Sheffer Tom Kim they’re all in that same kind of group you know that they’re shooting they they’re playing dollar games throughout practice rounds and all that you know week in week out part of the same little group are you getting kind of a Rick Ricky Fowler Vibe like early Ricky Fowler vibe from Tom Kim like had success but almost seems completely fine with not winning and his friends winning and beating him in a playoff yeah potentially I I think Tom Kim’s more of a natural winner than Ricky when you do look at Ricky’s history bearing in mind I was on Ricky for the mortgage classic last year that what the event we in this week and you can tell with Ricky he’s one of these guy he’s a Tony fenale Tony fenale will literally start from nowhere Ninth Place finish Seventh Place finish he’ll then get into a final group or shoot a low score and then go backwards and finish Fifth and it’s painful and eventually you scrag him in a bad event at 14 to1 Ricky and to exactly the same kind of players I think Tom can just give him a short call something that’s full of wedges and if the putter does comply which he did for the first two days he’s a very very good player Tom Kim on short courses I mean he could just walk I mean Paul was talking about patience he could just walk away with this week couldn’t he yeah oh yeah and we saw it last year when he defended at The Shrine as he won at 14 to one favorite I just won Wonder though how that loss and everything that went on on the 18th green with the protest and how that will affect him and the fact that I think he’s played like six consecutive events will affect him yeah so we’ll we’ll find out yeah there’s a few lads who playing again of you know and having wedged a couple of Signature Events and a a major in between it’s been a bit of a stretch for a few of them isn’t it my M my main s takeouts from it was you know you just can’t say anything bad about Tom I just thought in the playoff you know Scotty going with threewood just knowing that he’d have the first shot into the green and you know you know you know how Playoffs work get the ball close to the hole on your approach put the pressure on your opponent and like you said that movement of the flag I don’t think helped Kim at so did he I think he went with full wedge and people oh was that enough not enough and you could hear tsori I think Tori on the bags might may help him as well with time and experience but you know just it was it was clearly not the approach the approach shot he he was looking for but anyway good performance all in all I thought from Tom Kim what did we think of the protest got his air time didn’t it it’s a shame because you know we’ve seen quite a bit of this over in UK events haven’t we snooker recently and some other stuff and uh it’s yeah is a little frustrating and yeah and you know it clearly shook some of the players as well quite rightly yeah let’s hope it doesn’t affect the open in a few weeks time my my my concern and as I said to you guys off mik is that those people that were running on the Green from different angles of approach what if they were carrying a weapon yep MH very very dangerous situation uh anything else from last week should we move on to uh the rocket mortgage classic and Italian Open what do you think yeah let’s do it rating just quick rating out of 10 for the Signature Events this year oh wow well just listen to this I I I’ll C listen to this the last six Signature Events right 13-2 11-2 9-2 15-4 5 to1 they were the victories of Scotty Sheffer the other one was one the week that Scotty Sheffer didn’t play when Meredith had their first born that was one by the favorite Rory maroy at 17 to2 so the last six have been won by single digit favorites all of them yeah so how does that affect your mark Baron a couple of them during the week that I was watching them felt I don’t know a bit more special than a regular event but trying to think back to them now they don’t hold that same kind of weight the only one that would would be Riviera but that wouldn’t need to be a signature elevated event for me to have that feeling about it anyway it’s just the course so I mean for me the extra money doesn’t matter you get to see less Top Talent on a given week There’s Only whatever 70 or 80 players there y yeah I just think they’re a poor poor product well it’s also created this two-tier situation isn’t it I mean a lot of the players this week won’t have played since the Canadian open cuz they just couldn’t physically play it well unless they hopped on a private jet and came to the DP World Tour or they took a step down and played the corn fairy but why you know if you if you’re doing well in the rankings you’re not going to play corn fairy events are you no and if you do drop down into corn fairy you’re replicating the same problem there the guys can’t play who have cards it’s I it’s not good I think they need a serious rework they need to first of all remove them from being adjacent to Majors yeah there’s too many of them Barry and the timing’s timing’s not right um yeah I me I enjoyed the mat Yama win which for for obvious betting reasons but when you’re scheduling these the week before a major the week after a major um crazy yeah it it doesn’t I don’t think it helps anyone it can’t help the organizers or even the guys at the PGA Tour who kind of having to move from one significant event to another to another um and it certainly doesn’t help the players when you know they they expected to be at their very best in Elite fields for consecutive weeks but when you rewind to when they started why did they start in the first place it was all about boosting the prize pop so that so that they could keep more of the play players that are on the PJ tour to stop them getting plundered to go to live yeah so the so so the old emphasis of the Signature Events or the designated event was to give the best players more money not that we are trying to provide a better product that makes the pga2 more popular with the viewer and the general public so it’s come from the wrong direction hasn’t it yeah yeah Scott has end up ended up taking most of the money now if you said well actually what we’ll do is we’ll take these Signature Events we’ll keep that process in play but we’ll reduce the number and say let’s actually just keep it to three the three named tournaments Tiger Woods is Arnold Palmer Jack Nicholas’s and will boost those particular prize pods to whatever that number is to keep players happy but then your Travelers your RBC heritages would stay as full field events with cuts and allow more PJ tour uh members to play surely that’s a step in the right direction yeah you have a free branding right there as well if you do three just call it the triple crane I mean grab an appropriate it from horse racing or rugby and just go with that but there’s so many of them like dead right it’s like a saturated product already two minutes came from the wrong came just came from the wrong place if you make a good product then yeah you’re right like the approach of just getting money into their pockets meant that you were just going to get something that was stinky yep it needs some thoughts ahead of next season I think and what about if you could also throw some of the best live players into those events as well once this merger comes together that’s where I think a lot of this is heading then you’re talking wgc’s and so you kind of going back to you know four four signature WGC hybrid style events yes over the course of the Season yeah and you’ve almost gone full circle then haven’t you pretty much what would what would make them stand out immediately for me is if you made them all match play or had like a small one or two round stroke play qualifying then into match play immediately they they separate themselves from the rest of the 72 whole stroke play events yeah it’s different do you reckon they’re going to have a Liv versus PJ tour Ryder cups president cup type event can you imagine the uh the crowds at that live versus PJ T I would want to be a live player that could be on Pay-per-view us to someone’s probably that one all of these fantastic ideas that we’ve got that nobody listens to right rocket mortgage classic let’s start with that shall we uh Detroit golf club uh in Detroit natur naturally Michigan we’re proper up country this week chaps Donald Ross 1916 original so it’s a nice golf course it’s a it’s a classical looking Golf Course beautiful treelined holes um however uh Resort level scoring already this week I could see in the for in the uh history around here the you know the uh the weather reports that this place had had a lot of rain in the buildup I’m already seeing uh soft Fairways and soft greens and from experience we know that uh they don’t mind getting the Michigan State uh fire brigade out here and just making these these um these greens As Dead As they possibly can make sure you have to play ball and hand well on the green yeah and on the fa yeah yeah you get I’m getting mud balls on the greens chat yeah in June uh so this is going to be super birdy Fest Resort level scoring it’s the golf course itself I classify it as medium in length just a snitch under 7,400 100 yards it’s a par 72 uh three of the four par FS are sub 570 which in this day and age is nothing but even more interestingly there’s a there’s five par fours here that are sub 450 so the first sub 400 the fourth sub 400 the eighth 372 yards I mean it’s crazy Stu the 13th 393 so when you just look at this golf course it also features really wide Fairways I mean this is just PGA to a heaven 35 yard wide Fairways at 300 yards carry they say that there’s 4 Ines of rough here but really on such a short golf course it’s it’s just bombs away off the tea if you miss the Fairway doesn’t matter cuz the greens are so so receptive and the holes are in the M are so short it’s pretty academic so there’s no penalty absolutely no penalty it does though and I wouldn’t say this wholeheartedly because if you remember last year’s playoff we had two medium length golfers in Kara carwa and Adam hadwin going up against Ricky Fowler who you would classify as a bomber but I know Ricky was top 30 for driving distance last season heading into this so he’s he’s no slouch with the driver but Tony fenale Fowler D Shambo Cam Davis four of the four of the five winners here have all been pretty long off the team the first winner here Nate Lashley not so he’s more straight less than average length off the tea but with Nate Lashley you get absolutely when he’s on form lights out approach play so I think there’s two ways to win here that’s kind of the Adam hadwin Colin Mora carwa model from last year um hadwin’s driving numbers last year were unbelievably bad I think he was lost something like three and a half shots or four shots off the te but still managed to get in the playoff that shows you how there is no penalty here for bad driving it pretty much is if you can find a long drive for me this is where I got to I was looking for longer drivers who um Can part well or players that are very very strong right now with their approach play who are sneaky scorers your Adam hadwin types you know Adam hadwin always backing when they go to the desert yeah anything sub 20 under par 20 two underp Adam hadwin territory never wins but always in the always uh when I say never he’s won once but um very poor conversion rate but when it comes to these sort birdy fests Adam hadwin’s name pops up on lots and lots of leaderboards so that’s where we’re at I don’t it’s just one of those events isn’t it um I don’t think to be fair to me I mean I wasn’t expecting a great field I didn’t think it was a tremendously bad field I thought it was just your typical rocket mortgage classic so there’s some pretty there’s a a little bit of strength in there there not the big names but you get a lot of the upper to Middle range players that they’re pretty much all playing but I think we need Putters this week chaps um if you look at the last three outings here 73% of The Strokes gained to teeta Green 27% with the p but if you actually look at the raw numbers it averages through that the winner of this over the last three years each round has made a stroke with the putter so team no put you know when you’re getting negative numbers you’re not winning you’ve got to make positive putts this week and that puts me off someone like a Keith Mitchell whose putting numbers are absolutely shocking can’t make a putt for man or beast great from T to Green but eventually you just start seeing him missing three four Footers on in regular you know regular sort of regularity and that’s not going to get the job done here he’ll probably finish in the places but you don’t get the victory that way you’ve got to be gaining a stroke or at least 8.9 of a stroke each round with the Putter and as we saw with Tom Kim coming down the stretch last week when it it looked to me Paul as if he would he’ taken um he’d taken pting lessons off Lee Westwood those last five or six holes that The Travelers now I know my money was on him so he was feeling the weight of that but um wow just leaving him short leaving them short wow moment that’s when I that’s when I knew that it was another second place inbound now I would run you through T to gree numbers from The Travelers but they’re pretty irrelevant because most of the field didn’t play one thing I will say is Tom Kim did finish T to gree number one last week at The Travelers cam young was seventh I’m just scanning down here Stefan Jager and AE batier both in this week’s field were in the top 15 for strokes gained T to Green I’ll be tempted to know if you’re staying with a Paul I came very very close and probably will regret not putting stepan Yer in my tips he’s got a fantastic record here it’s just whether he can find the putter but then he was in exactly the same position playing the good Tien Golf and not making putts before he turned up in Houston and took down Scotty Sheffer the week before the Masters yeah I was on Scotty that week as you know right I tell you what I found this week chaps um it doesn’t happen every week but I have found that William Hill undoubtedly are the best bookmaker this week in terms of just their balance between each way places and odds they are eight places each weigh 50 odds for their default Market this week at the rocket mortgage but I just went you know scanning through the odds charts this morning they are best odds on Tom Kim Cameron Young minwu Lee aay Bara Alex naren Maverick mcne Taylor pendrith when I say best odds best odds of those offering eight places each way and I think I got all the way down to Chris Kirk before they were actually beaten by another bookmaker on an eight place bet so I thought that was a fantastic I know I managed to get three of my five up with them this week so if you are looking for that balance between best odds and eight places each way this week William Hill definitely the bookmaker you can sign up via US uh there’s a link in the description bet10 you get £30 in free bets new customer promotion plus a link through to that offer with T’s and C’s in the podcast description so yeah William Hill good effort this week at the rocket mortgage right we are in a world chaps and that world continues where any bet between 20 to1 and 50 to1 doesn’t win so you got to ask your qu the question do you guys see Tom Kim cam young or Min woo Lee winning this week and once you answer that question you then move on to well who are you g to back now I’ve backed I’ve backed none of them yeah cam Young’s interesting isn’t he after last week’s effort he’s um yeah he I I I I haven’t gone there but I gave it some serious consideration because he’s you to shoot a 59 you are undoubtedly playing some really good golf and as you’ve articulated the quality of the field has um thinned out quite dramatically here yeah it’s just whether he can get that win whether he can actually get over the line no we couldn’t go there I I guess you must have given it some serious consideration as well yeah you like you like a bit of Cam young don’t you yeah the problem I’ve got is that as as someone that’s back cam young for many many events um I hate it when I’m not on at something like this if I if you remember I was on him and Another Second Place finish he had a few months ago at the V Spar now we managed to get 20 to one that week on him and he got shot down by Peter Malnati if you remember I mean of all craziness Peter Mal NY beat him in a head-to-head finish on the Sunday but I would not be surprised if this is the kind of event that he does eventually stumble over the line in a playoff or something ridiculous and as Barry said off Mike it’ll be one of those where he starts five or six off the lead so I don’t know group five fifth or sixth last group on a Sunday and he just shoots lights out either wins by one or gets in a playoff takes it out it’ll be that kind of victory yeah but anyway I’m not on I also looked I had a very close look yesterday about players that had shot 59s and 58 in Jim [ __ ] um example how they did the outing after and none of them I mean none of them contended the week the outing after I don’t know if there’s something psychological in there yeah maybe yeah maybe the I can understand the round after kind of the Euphoria of having shot around like that and trying to follow it up and what it does tell you is you’re playing some really strong golf um but yeah it’s almost like making a hole in one and then making a bogy the following hole um where you’re still kind of come into terms with it and that uh that’s a reasonably regular occurrence as well yeah don’t know but then if you’ve done the history the history suggests that um it isn’t the way to go clearly the rightful favorites two of them and we we have seen Tom Kim win the Shriners last year as the favorite so it’s not as if he hasn’t done this either so don’t be don’t be shocked if this trend of short winners the other thing I will say as well if you look at the non Signature Events they tend to be up until this point one by longer prices 50 to1 and above so on that that basis I’ve completely wasted my top two bets of the week because I’ve gone for a 30 to1 shot and a 33 to1 shot but these trends at some point will close won’t they and we will get back to a normality when 33 to1 and 40 to1 winners do occur on PJ too anyway the most obvious one for me of the whole lot the one that I had on my Post-It note scribbled last Friday was Taylor pendrith hits it a long way p in very very well at the moment he’s actually um he’s third for strokes G total across my eight week analysis he’s also in the top seven for strokes gained pting so a bomber who hits it a long way and has got a hot putter right now uh he was second here two years ago and he was in the final group here last year before finishing I think he finished like 13th or 14th so clearly gets on well with the course he was in the final group with Ricky FL Fowler as he flustered his way around to eventually get the win and with Adam hadwin clearly he wasn’t getting any any air time he didn’t exist on the coverage because he was going backwards so yeah I’m on pendri at 30 to1 I was a bit cheesed off with bet fredet yesterday they put up their main Market five place each way I caught the odds and then an hour and a half later put up their eight places market and pendri was 33 to one there but um I don’t think that’s a particularly good look from bet Fred um but 30 to1 I got with bet 365 on pendri I backed him up with the very talented Davis Thompson who when you just look at the PGA Tour season long stats is top 20 across most categories Ninth at the open last time out I just get the feeling of the if this was going to be a first time winner I think Davis Thompson’s very close to the top of that list of players you’d look at and go God Thompson’s going to win soon so I’m on him with William Hill 33 to1 eight places each way on Davis Thompson he finished second at last year’s American Express to do that he was one shot behind the winner a guy called John Ram he shot 26 underp par so I do like the fact that Thompson can shoot lights out and actually if you look at that American Express event that they play at PJ West you can see Cam Davis Tony fenale Ricky Fowler all at the top of a number of leaderboards there so I think there’s a bit of crossover so yeah Davis Thompson at 33 to1 Taylor pendri at 30 to1 those are my bets sub 50 to1 Paul where are you at are you on a show yeah I’ve I’ve got two um I’ve I’ve got one three-digit price but the other one I’ve backed short price is a sh B here yeah um I had high hopes for him on Sunday to be honest cuz he played really well for the first three three rounds 64 65 64 to put himself right in the mix m um but yeah I just couldn’t couldn’t quite pull it together on the back nine which would have uh which would have done the job uh 69 the end tied for fifth so got my got my place money last week but I yeah it could have been could have been so much better but I’ll stick with him because I’ve talked about how I think he’s the kind of player that progresses to a win and 60th 22nd 16th fifth from his last four starts shows that kind of progress um Mr cut here last year but he’s in much much much better form now than he was back then and the I think the the ising with this the real killer stat is we want someone who’s progressing with the putter as well and his Strokes game putting performances over the last four starts 41st 35th 32nd fifth last week so that putter is warming up and it’s gone going to need to be really quite warm this week so if he continues the progression in terms of his finish finishing positions and his flat stick performance I think he’s going to be right in the mix and I know his price has been hammered but then that’s representative of where he is and his position and his chance relative to this field and um yeah I’m I’m not going to get sniffy about the fact that he’s what 20 to1 with extra places this week and that’s if he wins at 20 to1 then I’ll I’ll happily take that happily take that win I think well he’s just contended in a signature level event with best players on the PJ tour yeah so when he’s when he’s when he’s Point shorter than Alex naren Maverick mcne and Stephan Jager you know that’s people that say always 22 to1 I don’t fancy that well it’s like you say it’s just that this Field’s so much weaker yeah but is he is he the fourth best player in this field at the moment I’d argue he’s probably the third best he’s probably he should be shorter than Min wo Lee yeah yeah yeah yeah I’d have a head of memory Le just just on what he’s done recently yeah and if that that’s a pter does continue to progress then he’ll be he’ll be really quite difficult to shift this week you’re being patient pull which is exactly what you did with Guido so who could say anything bad about that now let’s that takes us over to Barry where are you at this week Barry um G I go I don’t know why but I’m feeling like there’s a connection here between this and the CJ cup could be just the width of the course so was kind of looking back at the leaderboard for that earlier this year um and on that basis it kind of kept me in around the players I was looking at well one or two anyway in the first place so I think even though he’s not uh Team Mega put I think Aaron Ry I’m going to stick with him I’ve I’ve kind of oscillated between sticking with him and post at noting him but yeah I know uh I thought he very well at the US Open up until he didn’t um on the Sunday but you know it was getting pretty tough at that stage you’re getting worn down after 72 holes and or close to 72 holes and he couldn’t win so understandably you fall off a little bit so I’m going to go I think I’m going to go with him and then another couple that went well back then um going to go with Jake knap no reason other than just more space off the team he hits it plenty long it’s his driving accuracy that will get him get him down but that can that extra space off the te can kind of relax him a bit and hit a few more Fairways this week than he’s got the rest of the weapons to to take it apart and the pr the price is nice I noticed he shot I think it was it was a 65 or something on Saturday at the tra which is one of the top 10 scores of that day so he’s there or thereabouts nap he just needs a CAU the course that suits and this suits yeah it was the 64 and the SAT my other one is4 was it yeah yeah the other one I’ve backed is Jake knp so I’ll get that out now welcome to team nap nice yeah I I think it’s the kind of course where he can open open his shoulders and um a go yeah I think he seems the sort to me that only needs that little spark um to then go off and you know find a dramatic Improvement in his form and that Saturday round could well be the the one that signals that for for this week so yeah 125 to1 I thought was a nice price Barry that kind of makes sense he feels like that the swing kind of feels Maverick is that he doesn’t need to like grind it in to get that feel that just all of a sudden clicks he might just make one swing and go oh there it is and off he goes and he’s flying yeah yeah I like it I’ve gone for a bit of DP World Tour action next with seen pavon perform well this year we’ve seen Robert McIntyre win with his dad on the bag in Canada now a guy that has a feature of that Canadian open but just didn’t hold on on the Sunday was Ryan Fox and I did say a couple of weeks ago these courses in upstate United States that are tree lined a bit lower scoring I think that will suit Ryan Fox and Ryan Fox like Taylor pendrith is in the midst of a scramble to get into Mike we’s President’s Cup squad and if there’s one thing we know with Ryan from our DP world tour history loves a par 72 all four of his victories have been on 72s and not even that all four of his victories have been short to medium length past 72s Wentworth last year being the most upfront observation of that so I don’t mind Ryan on sort of Ben or B po I think that suits him probably more than beuda and pass barlum I know that he’s not the ultimate closer pole we’ve seen that but then who is on the DP world yeah but I do think Fox at a birdy Fest on a golf course where you can just grip it and rip it he’s top 17 for driving distance on tour this season and he’s in the top 17 of my Strokes game putting metric over the last eight weeks so I thought that was a great combo on Ryan Fox I’d assume that he sees people like Mato who he knows well and and Robert McIntyre winning it must just Inspire him going well I can compete in these in these sort of second division PJ tour events no problem at all yeah so I think Fox is a decent bet I think Nikolai hoard could be another that would like this course but he’s not in the greatest of Nick hoard but as we’ve seen with the haard trims twins it doesn’t mean a need a lot and next thing you know that were top of leader boards so Fox is one there that I’ve picked patience Paul patience we’re teaching ourselves patience well I was on Matt Wallace last week he didn’t play badly I’m on him again this week if you take the last eight weeks across my tracker that includes DP well to it he ranks you’re going to like this baring he ranks tied first for St game current form with Maverick mcne and Aaron Ry so I’m on Matt Wallace 55 to one I got with uh with Bo Sports yesterday eight places each way on Matt Wallace he’s played here three times he’s made the cut three times and he’s finished 10th and 12th here amongst those three outings I’m going to help you who we had who won last year on the PJ tour this is the kind of event I think he can be competitive at and that then takes me to my longest shot uh he was 80 to1 that got eaten very very quickly but Lee Hodges now Lee Hodes is no bomber he’s more unate Lashley straight off the T super approach play and can be a particularly devilish putter on easier scoring level tests now you might remember Lee Hodes from last year he won the 3M open in Minnesota and he won that by seven shots at 24 underp he shot 63 64 66 67 that’s not bad is it it’s kind of Scotty chees really uh 3M open Minnesota one of these events that’s played in very up state or you know Northern United States um yeah I just like the I just like the look of Hodes this week across my eight week rankings he’s first for approach and in the top 12 for putting so won’t hit it a long way but if he keeps those irons dialed in nicely and makes a few putts I could see someone like Lee Hodges being the kind of guy that compiles that kind of 22 24 underp par score you’re going to need to be right at the sharp end of the leaderboard this week so I’ve got Hodges at 70 to1 Wallace at 55s Fox at 50s and then Davis Thompson at 33 to1 and Taylor pendrith at 30 to one is that us done I think it is isn’t it did you have one more Barry because I think we um got carried away with Jake that didn’t we yeah I did um no but I was going to say Steve like Matt Wallace for me I’d be the one I would put like a Post-It note of Doubt over him in my mind so that might actually help your bet this week what don’t you like about Matt Wallace then I don’t know I just I I I think there’s just a tiny bit of mental side of the game missing from him being a truly excellent player because skills wise he looks like he’s got more than he performs so it’s it’s almost like a I’m not going to say a waste of talent but not not a maximization of talent I think there’s something there in the mental game and I or whether it’s just just that 1% but that’s the difference he doesn’t mind going through a cad or 17 either does he what does that tell you no you’re you’re not looking for a long-term bag with Matt Wallace are you no yes just trying to find the right solution there’s there’s a lot of players in this this week your Troy merits there’s a lot of players at bigger prices that you could just see popping up on a on a soft mattity Schmid might be another one Paul you know he he showed up quite nicely at the KLM last week he’s the sort Callum Taran all these kind of players what some of these names will get in the mix undoubtedly yeah it’s interesting that you say Troy Meritt because um when I was just fiddling with the predictor model yesterday that was a name that popped up quite a bit and he was three figures as well 125 or something like that yeah there’ll be someone like that or a number of these guys that are going to get right to the top of the leaderboard this week just because there’s you know the lack of depth yeah right let’s move on to the unsponsored Italian Open Paul over to you yeah it seems to have taken a little bit of a step back isn’t it this this event uh now with the the rider cup done and um it’s moved away from the Marco Simone course that hosted the rider cup so we got a new track over on the east coast this week and uh yeah pretty lowkey event which um given that there’s there’s so kind of stop start the D World so you’d expect these things to be there’s a there’s a bigger price pop as well yeah there’s more money on the line than the km open but it’s a weaker field it’s odd isn’t it it’s seems to be a bit of apathy with the DP World Tour in general at the moment it’s interesting next week um with the BMW International open we’ve got uh three Liv players coming over so you know the the the fields are starting you know some of these spots that could be used by genuine European tour or D World Tour players are starting to be snaffled by uh by Liv players but anyway let’s let’s talk about this week first Patrick Reed talking of Liv Patrick Reed’s the favorite this week um 14 to one available and being backed in as we speak Tom mckibbin 18 to one burnt vurger 18 to one Jordan Smith 22 same price Lorie caner recent winner of course Canter gido last week’s winner 22 to1 33 to1 Baro top six seven players that I just read through boils are eight places each way fif of the odds of standard this week do check them out um you’ve also got as ever eight Place options with bet 365 and bet Fred so a few different combinations that you can choose from this week so well worth checking those out because a lot of The Bookies otherwise are generally bog standard each way terms now I talked about a new course we are at the AG attic golf club seevilla which is a new course to the tour so if you’re flicking through and we’ve got loads and loads of history with the Italian Open but if you’re looking through the course or the the event history stats or the combination stats this week then do bear in mind this is a new new track to the um to the DB World Tour that isn’t anything tangible that I could find that would be of use for us to to look at this week so it’s a um a blank canvas in that that respect and of course he just in land from the Adriatic Coast over there on the on the east side of Italy got three sets of nine holes here we got the red course which is like a pinewood Forest got the blue course which is more open more Florida style I think if you looked at the course or the holes they’re kind of bigger longer lots of water in play and then you’ve got um nine holes for the yellow course which is structured like an inland links it’s um it’s been kind of framed on Scottish links was how it was described and uh you know it’s more links in style so you got these three sets of nine now not that it’s on the DP world s website but um I’ve kind of pieced the jigsaw together and um it looks to me as if we’re playing the red on the front nine and the yellow on the back nine which means through the Pinewood Forest on the front and then back home on the lynxy style um yellow C on the back nine so you’ll have these very two very contrasting sets of nine this week all adds together for a 6,965 yard par 70 with just two par fivs one of the par fives that’s played as such for the members is being converted to a long Par Four for the uh professionals this week that’s on the back nine the 15th I think it was now they converted all of the course to Bermuda back in 2011 um from the translations I’ve read the greens are overseeded with Ry grass apparently so we’re going to have some strange combinations of both grasses and also this kind of hybrid course this week to that’s a rare gu yeah yeah it is um so yeah it’s it’s going to be interesting because the um if you’re trying to find parallels or trying to find um precedence for this kind of course it’s it’s it’s difficult because you got three coures built at different times all kind of fused together and then just using two of them and then you know as I say completely contrasting Styles as well anyway we we’ll we’ll tackle it and see what we can uh see what we can Garner from it there’s rain expected on Tuesday which will if if as much rain is in the forecast actually materialized it will soften it quite considerably and then it’s going to improve quite dramatically from there it’s going to be light winds Sunshine temperatures up to the mid 80s by Sunday so they could be turning up to a fairly soft course on Thursday morning um and then it could be you know really lovely conditions scoring conditions from there on so I think this could be quite low scoring um remains to be seen the last five winners just for some flavor again you know if you you’re talking about coming to a new course so there’s there’s some uh you know you take it all with the pinch of salt I guess 2019 was burnt vburger 35 to1 2020 Ross Macwan remember that one 750 to1 Ross McGaw good luck if you managed to get that one uh Nikolai hoard 2021 um late entry absolutely no price for him big coup for The Bookies that week 2022 was Bob McIntyre 50s and then last year Adrian [ __ ] 22 to1 of course Mor’s over at live now and isn’t defending here this week unfortunately now if you look through those stat again you got no no course history to try and dig through but if you look through the winners going back all the way to 2010 everyone except mawan all the way back to 2010 the Italian Open had a top 14 finish or better in one of the last six starts so a little bit of current form um doesn’t go and Miss um and each of the last six winners had at least one top 20 or better in a previous Italian Open um to the name as well so I I you often find that the form even though the courses do hop about with the Italian Open it does tend to be transferable to a degree you get plenty of repeat winners in the Italian Open as well so um I wouldn’t dismiss previous Italian Open form or even Italian form out of hand it’s something that you can and perhaps should consider this week so yeah don’t don’t just dismiss the the course or the event history stats on the site this week well worth a look um but yeah do bear in mind it is a brand new track to us this week and I’m not sure there’s much else I can tell you really because as say we’ve got nothing else tangible to work from with a uh or from a from a course perspective so interesting to see how what it looks like interesting to see how it plays I’m interested to see if I’ve worked out the uh the routing correctly for this they’ll probably flip it on head and it’ll be completely back to front and make my preview look a bit silly but and pivot to the blue nine with the water Florida style well yeah I expect so yeah they just play they play play two rounds of nine on the on the Florida one and I’ll be completely outly rug it’s such an interesting concept to play like two completely different styles of nine it’s almost like saying to tennis players well your first set’s going to be on clay and then the second set’s going to be on grass and they’re just going to revert back m yeah I we’ve seen you know a few of them and I did consider this um as part of my analysis because um you know we’ we’ve seen the odd one that’s like this there’s one over in um muca which was similar the um the Scandinavian mixed had some contrasting um holes as well and you do get these um you know some of these holes that or some of these courses that are near the coast where it does come out of Woodland and then comes to more open um link SE or Coastal star so it’s not unprecedented in that respect but looking at the you know the actual Aesthetics of the holes they do look quite markedly different between the nines so yeah it would be uh it will be quite interesting anyway I I did have four for this and I’ve now got three because my well when my knee- J reaction my first bet yesterday was nacho Alvera I thought nacho fitted this like a glove um I thought he’d go really well he was 66 6 to one first first player that I backed yesterday and then um he started to drop off The Bookies lists yesterday evening and and fell off the entry list so um whilst there’s no actual confirmation which is which isn’t unusual for the DP World Tour and we’ve got to assume that he’s been he’s pulled out so uh so yeah down to three this week with Nao out of the mix uh the first one for me is Matthew Jordan who um generally 33 30 to1 if you want the a place each way option which is still available now with boil Sports now I think a new course could help um some of the less experienced players I think it could help the tour maidens as well and Jordan is one of the best maidens in the field in my view his only professional win came on the challenge tour and that was in Italy and should he win on Sunday it will be five years to the day that he won that event over in Italy back on the challenge tour in 2019 loads of top fives compatible courses since he hasn’t got over the line as we know but um lots of compatible course form on short courses or lynxy courses or treel line courses you know depending which which of the nines you’re looking at 10th at last year’s Open Championship was also an eye openening effort I think that will uh set him in good stead particularly against the field of this low quality and it’s no surprise really that he finished well in the the open he was born and bred on the WHL so played a lot of his formative golf on and around the coast most recently though this is the form that gets him into my team this week fifth at the sudell open 13th European open 12 at the Volvo mixed finished first first and third for Greens in regulation over that stretch he is striping his irons at the moment um that’s I think going to a new course will set in really good stead he’s got a top 20 in the uh Italian Open back in 2021 Full House for me this week from Matthew Jordan I think he can get that monkey off his back and his first DP World Tour win this week now if it’s not Matthew Jordan it may well be mat Mato manisero and there still a little bit of 40 to one out opened at 55 to1 yesterday he has been really really popular I suspect 33 to1 will be the best that he goes off at on Thursday but I think that’s that’s fair he know he was a real ey catcher last week in the Netherlands second for strokes g t to green sick for strokes g off the T 12 for strokes G approach sick for around the green lots to like with his Strokes game numbers and uh he’s heading home this time oh this week for the first time since winning that Johnson workware open trophy back in March so should be boyed by that should also be boyed by gido’s win last week lots of uh positivity with Italian golf right now and uh if you look back last year he won twice on the challenge tour that was between May and July um so he has proven recently that he can win in relatively short um you a relatively short period of time the second win there was on home s that was in Italy that was his second career win in Italy so he can do it at home the previous one was in the Alp store back in SW 2020 playing nicely fifth in India seventh last week I do expect him to feature I know the price is being continually eroded um but um again in this relative lack of strength of field I think that is fair no nacho which is a shame as I say the final one I’ve backed then is Tom Lewis bit more of a speculative punt this one 170 to1 eight places each way bet 365 is still available right now as we record just before 9:00 on Tuesday Morning 175 to1 out there with standard eway places with a number of Bookers as well so lots of options this week is a bit of a speculative punt but we know that Tom Lewis is capable he’s got two Portugal Masters wins so two wins from just off the coast um it was eighth the uh European open at the start of June so some recent decent enough form 44th last week doesn’t really stick out but he did top birdies made on the course of the week as well so he made even more birdies than gido last week he won the tournament so if he can just get rid of a few of those Bogies then um then he could be uh could be featuring this week likes playing in Italy as well eight career starts at the DP World Tour level over over the years in Italy five of them finishing in top 20 finishes enjoys the country clearly feels at home here I think and should enjoy the lynxy holes here I think as well that’s there’s much more his Jam so happy to take a chance on Tom Lewis Lewis manisero Matty Jordan my three for the week now now Barry you having a play this week the yeah the the Hot Potato tour I it just feels wild making bets on the DP World Tour even on Sunday um just never know what’s going to happen but uh if you’re not in you can’t win so so I have a couple I’m I stuck with the I backed verman last week so I’m going to stick with them again 40 to1 um played well did let’s go again yeah yeah just just one slack round in there but other than that some really good stuff yeah and going to a fresh course like there’s you know going in with good form does nobody really has a or no no big percentage of the field has a course Advantage uh um after backing manisero and hosino in the US Open and both of them bombing and then seeing them the two of them get out of the traps like Greyhounds last week kind of frustrated me quite a lot um I think I’m going to stay away from manaco because it’s it’s the Italian Open and I just you know that extra leap to like be a home winner is is tough so I’ll pass if he wins amazing um it’ll be fun to watch but I’m gonna back hosino after 10th last week yeah yeah there’s there’s some good numbers came out of his performance last week as well that I bow yesterday yeah and know I was just kind of putting up a bit of Strokes gained approach and some very high you know maxing out on birdies on the predictor and one who just showed a bit last week with a was it seventh he finished yeah seventh was Thomas Aken oh Tommy aen we’re going we’re going we’re going back 10 years here po Tommy aen I give you got serious team no part isn’t it oh wow the amount of times we lost money on Thomas AK over the years I’m going to yeah we’ll bring him back um but I just kind of figured a little bit of experience riding a nice wave of a good result last week might be able to plot his way around here a bit smarter than some of the younger Lads yep quite possible if you were to grab Paul your Post-It note of Doom from 2012 2011 I’m sure Thomas Akin especially with his surname starting with an a must be at the very top of that list yeah the amount of times you’ve torn your hair out on Thomas Aken in the final round I yeah I I I forget where it was but then I remember him winning a tournament where he absolutely parted lights out and it was just like your chin was on the floor he like what where did that come from having backed him so much and um seen him part like a bad Lucas Glover yeah well no good luck Barry you know we’ll see what happens I’m joining you Barry not on Thomas Akin by the way but on ruya Hino first for Te to Green last week could not putt for toffee third for approach seventh for around the green he reminds me that was a very similar look that lorri caner gave the week before he won yeah so if he can just find the putter I could see oo having a very good week this week so I’m on hosino at 66 to one nice nice prize is that us Jabs yeah all done for me what we you got next week Paul by the way you intrigued me with the three Live players for next week so I had a little dig I’m seeing Martin kimer Patrick Reed stays in for a second week clearly he’s trying to get into the open and I forgot the third one Thomas pet Oh Thomas Peters your old mcka y indeed another one of the second place Club Tommy Peters Thomas Peters yeah so yeah three three of them towards the top of the uh top of the market next week I expect well maybe no reason Ryan Fox Ryan Fox flying in for it yeah Matty Schmid’s coming back again so yeah it’s a decent field I have got I believe the John Deer classic yes so I look forward to that I look forward to that immensely I hope your bets go well Champs boys hope everybody’s bets go well draftking teams and the like we will be back next week for another thrilling installment of the golf betting system podcast goodbye if you like betting on [Music] off but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast