Today on The Par 3, Matt Brown and Stephen Andress share their best golf betting predictions for the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic. We look at which sportsbook betting apps you can find the best golf odds for our PGA picks this week and 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic best bets. We break down the field, preview the course, and give our PGA Outright Bets with real analysis. Plus our expert golf betting tips, free PGA betting picks and predictions. We also look at golf props and which online sportsbook has the best PGA Tour Odds.
00:00 – The Par 3: Rocket Mortgage Classic Best Bets
00:11 – Looking Back at the Travelers Championship
01:20 – Rocket Mortgage Classic Course Preview
03:53 – Stephen Bet One
07:07 – Matt Bet One
09:10 – Stephen Bet Two
11:01 – Matt Bet Two
14:00 – Stephen Bet Three
15:21 – Matt Bet Three
Read John’s full Tournament preview here and betting card here:
https://www.thelines.com/rocket-mortgage-classic-odds-pga-tour-golf-betting-preview-picks-predictions-2024/
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[Music] hello and welcome to the par three presented by the lines lines.com Matt Brown Steven Anders coming to you this is the rocket morgage classic at the Detroit Golf Club Stephen I have licked the wounds everything is fine everyone that watches the par three everyone knows hopefully you were betting along with us and we had Tom Kim last week that being said this was I think a pretty good lesson in if you’re paying attention you were able to make money no matter what last week when you have a 55 to1 ticket in your account even 50 to1 by the time this thing went off people were listening to us Stephen he fell a 51 before this uh before this tournament went off if you get into a head-to-head playoff you can make money no matter what and so thanks to Tom Kim for at least making that uh 10 and a half footer to get to a head-to-head playoff it was a muddy hedge all week long so it was never going to work out unless he got head-to-head with someone and so he did get head-to-head with someone unfortunately that someone is the best player of that we’ve ever seen uh By the time this is all said and done and so what was Scotty at the start of the playoff against Tom Kim minus 170 oh my God yeah well they were minus 170 so uh yeah but that being said able to make some money and uh winning tournament is a winning tournament so we move on heading over to Detroit 7370 yards to par 72 one of the easiest courses we’re going to see all year long it is only two water hazard holes pretty small greens but they are very very receptive uh pretty short approach shots here Stephen because you can kind of bomb away because it’s not penal to be in the rough historically very very low scor shot here in the rocket morage so the type of golfer we’re going after is maybe a little bit different then also Stephen just uh quick as we talk strategy a little bit this is something I will point out I mean you know in tournaments like this there are going there could be some guys kind of creep up out of nowhere and win a tourn like this really all you have to do is just avoid Bogies and if you can avoid Bogies you are likely going to be in the mix come the weekend here in this tournament because pretty much everyone in this half of this field is going to go low I mean it’s just it’s a it is a birdie course Fairways in regulation is seven points higher than tour regulation Greens in regulation is seven points higher than tour average it’s eight points higher from a Mist Fairway for greens and regulation that it is on tour average birdies per round is up uh over half a birdie per round I mean it’s just it’s it’s just a good scoring environment so uh that’s going to have to play into our picks this week and I’ll give you one example of a guy who modeled out for me decent Kevin Yu that I’m not playing this week because I still need guys to make putts and the winning scores over the past few years at this event 24 under 26 under 18 under 23 under 25 under those are winning scores last five years Kevin you may hit the ball really well but he when he gets to the greens he’s losing like four plus putting last couple events five plus two events before that so I still need to at least have confidence that you’re going to make the putts once you get there um so so that’s kind of like the tiebreaker for me as we’re going through this yeah guys um you know short odds on some names that you’re not really used to seeing short odds on because this field is a little bit weaker after we come off of two uh elevated events and a major so a lot of people taking some time off here before they head overseas to the Open Championship so you know we’re seeing short odds on names like Tom Kim and minwu Lee and AA batia and Alex noren and stuff like that guys where you’re normally getting those 40 50 60 70 to ones we’re seeing 12 to one on Tom Kim we’re seeing 18 to 20 to1 on minwu Lee and all this stuff so just a little bit different of a tournament this week Stephen we’ll goad and kick things off here you are on the te all right it’s a guy that I’ve already hit an outright with this year at 100 to1 he’s the Canadian he is Taylor pendrith and over the last 50 rounds using the modeling subscription that I have he is fifth in this field for me and it’s really a combination of driving distance and also converting birdies for me he’s also top 10 over the last 50 rounds and strokes gained on par five so I like Taylor pendrith to be able to use his distance as a weapon in this event to contend with some of the biggest hitters in in this field if you look at his results after winning the Byron Nelson back on May the 5th only one miscut since that win and he’s got a couple uh he’s got a top 10 at the Wells Fargo he’s got several top 30s at the memorial the RBC Canadian most recently a 16th at the US Open and a 23rd at The Travelers I just think he’s a solid combination of distance good enough iron play and just a really strong putter dating all the way back to the beginning of May he’s only lost Strokes putting once and he’s gained two plus putting in four consecutive events that included two events where he was four plus Strokes gained putting so I’ve always liked his talent he finally has at least one win on his resume and I think this course sets up pretty nicely for him yeah for me uh just overall betting approach here guys for everyone this week I’m taking more of a scattershot approach so basically I’m not playing any placement markets I’m not going to play any head-to-heads I’m not going to do any of that stuff I’m with willing to take a zero in this tournament Steven because again with everybody with nothing really separating people other than the occasional made 24f footer and and 18-footer and things like that like that’s not really where I want to get in in head-to-head markets and placement markets and things like that right so for me I’m going to either hit an outright this week or it’s just going to be a loser for me that’s obviously not my typical betting strategy when it comes to golf but a tournament’s going to play 24 25 26 under and it’s really just going to be who putts the best that week I don’t want to be sitting there sweating a top 20 you know with a guy that’s got to make a you know a guy that’s got to make an 18-footer to get in the top 20 I’m just not going to do that so I mean we saw it last week too it was a birdie fest last week and guys who were in the top 20 in the top 10 going into that final round shoot only like one or two under and they just plummet down the board so yeah it’s just volatile yeah and and honestly the thing is is this there’s no at least last week there was Danger on that like there’s just no danger on this course at all and so like the big number just doesn’t lurk right and so like if I like a guy better than another guy I’m always hoping there’s a blow up hole for that other guy and all there’s just no blowup holes on this course right there just no there’s no big numbers to be had and so with that again it’s just going to be outrights for me this week and like I said I’ll take a zero it’s one of the very few tournaments every year that I’m okay with taking a zero if I take a zero so that’s how I’m going to be playing it this week full transparency uh when it comes to modeling a lot of the guys obviously with the shortest odds are the guys towards the top your Tom Kims and your men woodle and your AA Bas and things like that I’m just not going to go that route this week I’m going to go at least a little bit further down the board the first one is something interesting to me um MAV McNeely a guy that modeled out very very well for me this week and you kind of think and it’s like Matt I thought you said that you were um valuing you know distance off the tea and things like that this week and I am however I also am just valuing guys that are birdie makers that are giving themselves opportunities so put in a bunch of opportunities gained opportunities plus which is inside of 10et opportunities to make birdies and things like that and that’s where Mt McNeely really starts to shine and you look and this guy despite the fact that if we go into and I can show you right now the driving distance thing he’s 55th in this field that’s really the only place that he’s terrible consider of all the stuff that I put in birdie are better gained he’s 12th overall in this field if you look at opportunities gain 19 opportunities plus which I like I said is inside 10et birdie opportunities he’s 10th in this field and if we think guys are going to need to score a ton well it’s way easier to make an eight-footer than it is to make an 18-footer and so he’s very very good at putting it close from proximity uh and if we’re going to be talking about a course Stephen that doesn’t really um penalize you for being Wayward with the drives like that’s really the big problem with MAV McNeely if he can kind of just let her rip yeah he averages 298 off the te that’s not all that far but it’s not short by any stretch of the imagination and so if he can just kind of let her rip out there I think he can uh he can have an interesting week this week so MAV mcney for me a guy that I haven’t played all year long but uh modeled out very well for me for the stuff that I’m looking at yeah same for me last 24 rounds he’s number three overall I get it uh personal note I covered him in his one year on the corn Ferry tour and great guy I I actually would love to root for him to see his first PGA Tour win so uh not sure he’s going to be on my betting call card he’s among the final group I’m trying to whittle it down to if he is I’ll post it in the lines.com Discord top rightand corner you can find that in the golf staff bets Channel second guy for me that is definitely on the card is Ryan fox now I’m going a bit out of my comfort zone here because week to week I definitely want guys who are just Elite iron players no matter what course they’re on and Ryan fox has been inconsistent with his irons but he bombs it and he’s a great putter very similar to Taylor pendrith here so while he doesn’t have any PGA Tour win Equity Matt you and I both know that he is a multiple time winner on the DP World Tour this is his first full-time season on the PGA tour and we’ve already heard you know Bobby better percentage as well like which is something if we think that we’re going to need a ton of birdies he’s like right up inside the top 10 in this field with that indeed yeah so and we’ve already heard you know Robert McIntyre talking earlier this year about how difficult of an adjust it is being on your first full-time year on the PGA tour when you’re coming from the DP World Tour so I was very encouraged you know I was wondering why Fox we haven’t seen the results from him even in some weaker Fields earlier this year maybe that plays a part in it that’s narrative that’s opinion I don’t have any facts to back that up all I know is that two events ago at the RBC Canadian he was fully In Contention going into the final round and it didn’t work out he didn’t get the win but that was a very encouraging sign for me made the cut at the US Open even though he didn’t uh contend but still gained four plus Strokes putting in back-to-back events so I think bomb and Putt is exactly what fits Ryan Fox’s game and I think this course fit sets up nicely for him too and I thought the number would be shorter on him I think it’s just because of recent results but I think just based on talent and the quality of this field he should probably be shorter than 50 to1 and I was able to get a 50 55 to one and know a couple spots earlier this week Stephen I know this a guy that you’re considering for me already on the card and there are very few guys uh this week where if I look across the across the model which guys you run a model when you run the model if it’s green it means the person’s like if it’s bright green it means the person’s like really towards the top of the field if it’s a deeper shaded green it’s kind of middle of the field if it’s a darker Shad of green it’s still in the upper half of the field in all the categories and then you start getting into black which means like more neutral than red and deeper shades of red if they’re in the bad part there’s only one guy inside the top actually only one guy period and that’s Davis Thompson where it’s green across the board um so that doesn’t mean he is Elite in all of the things but he is at least in the upper half of the field in every single one of the categories that I put in this weekend we’re talking off the tea approach we’re talking bird or better percentage Strokes gained on par fivs we’re talking driving distance good drive percentage Strokes gained in Easy courses opportunities gained all these things that I put in Davis Thompson is the only guy that is green across the board he is inside the upper half in every single one of those things here and Stephen you start to look and you know is he Elite in any of them no but if you’re inside the top 25 in again Strokes gained off the tea approach bir or better percentage b or better gain total driving opportunities gain all these things like that this is a type of course where you don’t necessarily have to excel in any of those stuff but if you’re all of those skills are in your bag this could be one of those weeks where everything just culminates for you um bogey avoidance as well even for Davis Thompson so for me uh a guy that one of the first guys I put into the uh IND the account this week the only guy like I said across the board who is green in every single category he was across the board in green for me in every category except for one it was one of the proximity uh criteria between 75 and 150 but that was it every I I’m with you I saw the same thing he is definitely on my short list among the final considerations for my card uh in this weak field you’re getting a guy that’s coming off a top 10 in the US Open pretty good indication of where his form is at going into this event and just browsing the rest of the top 10 from the US Open don’t see anybody else in this field so if you want to go Uber Uber uh recent form here you know in the toughest conditions Davis Thompson did very well and maybe in a in a in an easier course with better scoring conditions where his driver is still a huge weapon it all adds up for him and it seems like Matt the opinion of Davis Thompson around the golf world is that he is an upand Comer with great talent that people expect to be a multiple time PGA Tour winner uh so i’ never mind being early on a guy like that if if the numbers back it up and we’re looking at you know just checking the odds board here still can get 35 to one on Davis Thompson so I don’t mind that at all either I want to give you one more bomb here from my last guy Matt and it’s not a guy that’s modeling out well overall in the last 50 36 or 24 rounds but if you just look at course Architects Donald Ross he’s a kind of you know you tell you tell me if you agree or disagree Donald Ross courses typically have very distinct characteristics and some guys really hate them and don’t like playing them and some guys enjoy the challenge of it um cam d maybe fits that right if he was not modeling out for well for me at all and then I turn on you know just Donald Ross courses over the past 50 rounds and he’s number two in this field last 36 rounds he’s still right at the top of the list here among guys who like these courses number one overall actually in the last 36 rounds on Donald Ross courses so he’s got the course history too this is really just a straight horse for the course play and the odds match being able to take just a chance on a guy like this uh he was 80 to1 earlier this week you can still get 70 to1 on Cam Davis and never hurts to have a little win Equity either he not only is a winner on the tour he’s won this event in particular the rocket Mortgage in 2021 so uh kind of a leap of faith here but horse for the course for me is Cam Davis this week at those odds my last like I really like the guy think he might could win type guy for me this week is Alex small a guy that uh I had to dig into a little bit further wondering why he was ranking as high as he was for me and listen anytime that I’m going to be looking at you know off the tea stuff good drive percentage if I’m looking at stuff about proximity and proximity to the farewell say that Alex Molly continues to check all those boxes now leaves a little bit to be desired from the approach standpoint that being said Stephen he’s still in the upper half of the field in the approach statistics and that’s good enough for me when it comes to a tournament like this because if you’re closer and it’s easier to stick these greens as it is anyway it’s it actually kind of like bring some of these dudes a little bit closer together right like if you’re horrible it probably doesn’t help you all that much but if you’re if you’re just kind of in that second tier of approach guys in the field well a green that is super super super super receptive I think it can kind of Clos the gap between those like second tier guys and the first tier guys and so with that Alex Molly really cross the board stuff that was just lighting up left and right for me and I I had to dig in I didn’t think that it was going to be something that I was into but uh Alex SMY one of the first uh plays that I put in this week as well two kind of bonus bombs since you threw a bomb out there by the way SMY 250 to one right now that’s a bomb my friend yeah that’s a bomb um couple of other bombs here that if you guys are just uh are wanting to throw in again just have some fun and maybe again maybe they play their way in contention on Sunday and you can figure out how to monetize the tickets these these were strictly nothing the model plays and I went in and looked at them and I’m kind like okay I guess I see why the model likes them as much as they do Kelly craft is one of the guys that was modeling super super well for me and M mes mesner misner it’s it’s uh me I SS n r both dudes that modeled very well for me I went in and kind of looked at their stats a little bit and I’m like oh I guess that does start to make a little bit of sense to me as to why they were they were kind of showing up where they were with the statistics that we put in this week and with the stuff that we find you know important Stephen again like some of these guys actually have I didn’t even know M misner or Messner I’m looking in but like a t13 at the at Myrtle Beach a T5 over at the Charles Schwab like I didn’t know the guy existed and here he is like you know getting top fives and and top 10 and then I go into Kelly craft and you’re kind of like I mean sure team event but t11 at the Zurich t-13 at the CJ cup at Craig Ranch at the RBC he at least top 40 so there’s a little bit there and those are all stronger Fields so you know again in a weak field it’s a bomb type play modeled out well I mean put a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a unit on it and then if they can play their way into contention on Sunday you can figure out a way to monetize the ticket and all of this but again it’s guys it I hate to call them putting contest because you still have to like you still have to put it close enough to be able to make the putt but Stephen this is going to be who makes the most putts this week is who wins this tournament and so don’t get frustrated if your guy that you love is right there and then does get it done on Sunday because you know it’s the difference in this tournament could be a couple of a couple of putts that roll in from outside of 25 ft and you know you’re just not going to make very many putts outside of 25 ft and someone this week will and that’s probably who’s going to win the tournament I want to give you two Mac measner Meisner we’ll learn your name when you win an event uh in his bio here two interesting nuggets he received the volunteer service award bestowed by the president of the United States and established to honor volunteers who give hundreds of hours per year so that’s pretty cool good on you but he’s also kind of weird he says he’s got superstitions where he never uses a ball with the number three on it he never uses plastic te’s and always uses the same half dollar to mark his ball so there you go go hey he T10 at the Valero so I mean he’s there’s something he’s got something he’s got some some kind of game I don’t know anyway modeled out well and sometimes I just don’t argue with the model you know I just like I say okay model you tell you you tell me that you like this guy I’ll go and uh and give it world but uh I kind of wish this was an off week Stephen not going to lie kind of wish we were just kind of taking a breath here after two elevated events and a and a major but hey we’ll we’ll throw some out there we’ll have some fun watching some golf and you know as we uh start to head over to the uh Open Season here again as Stephen mentioned up rightand Corner ofth theel lines.com that is absolutely free that is our Discord over there so be sure and go in and talk some golf and if you haven’t done so already everything we do absolutely free on this channel so go ahead hit that subscribe button give us a thumbs up help us grow this puppy if you were here last week you were on Tom Kim you were able to monetize that ticket you were able to make some money um unfortunately a guy named Scotty sheffler exists in this world and so that uh is going to keep us from winning a lot of golf tournaments for no Scotty this week guys so maybe we get something home for Stephen I’m Matt good luck on all your rocket mortgage bets
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