Trust Min Woo Lee at Rocket Mortgage Classic! | Golf Picks & PGA Predictions | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Intro
00:47 – Best Bets
11:28 – Course Preview
19:30 – Outright Bets
38:59 – One and Done
44:36 – Placement Market
50:11 – Golfers To Watch

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #AuthorNickBretwisch #BlueWireVideo

hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Robert to aruo and this is your 2024 rocket mortgage classic betting preview alongside Spencer agar and Nick brwi whom you can find on Twitter tof Sports and stickfix you can find me on Twitter Roberto a213 of course it’s now called X but we’ve got your tournament betting preview for the rocket mortgage classic from Detroit Golf Club I won’t be giving any picks this show because I’ll be covering it as a host for PGA Tour live this week so no bets for me but Nick and Spencer are going to break down their entire betting cards their course previews but first let’s start with Best Bets Spencer what’s your best bet for the rocket mortgage classic I have two matchups this week that I like a lot I’m gonna go with Carson young over Ben Silverman I got that at minus 120 that number has moved a few points before we could record but anything minus 130 or lower is still very playable in inside of my model all right you’re backing one of the best mustaches on the PGA tour in Carson young against the Canadian Ben Silverman Nick who are you betting on for your best bet this week I’m going Andrew Novak top 40 where Tai is pay in full at plus 125 all right Andrew Novak top 40 plus 125 Nick back to his bread and butter with the top 40 play obviously not really an option for the 72 man Fields uh that we’ve seen in Signature Events but we’re back Nick’s on been on a heck of a run he’s had seconds in the last four tournaments I I don’t know how that happens a heck of a yeah heck of a negative run but my God how close can you be can we just jump right into that real quick I mean Tom Kim makes that put on 18 and I was like all right I don’t think Scotty gets shaken by anything but like everything is pointing in time Kim’s Direction here Hound’s a driver in the as the leadoff man in the playoff hole I think he’s got Scotty by you know 25 to 30 yards and obviously Scotty clubs down to three-wood and I think what Scotty did there was manage the course he knew that he’d have a full pitching wedge in something that he could you know control the spin of as well and Tom Kim just rips it down the Fairway and I think the TV said he hit a lob wedge yeah so he was trying to like I’m assuming his lob wedge is probably like a 58 or a 60 somewhere in that range and trying to full swing that from I think he was like 115 to 120 that’s a really tough shot obviously he trusts it and he’s a hell of a ball striker in the PJ tour I just think that Scotty kind of showed the the veteran savviness there of I’m going to hit the middle of the green and you know and obviously it was very close to the pin too so frustrating man it’s been a tough run um but I did think made the most money in our one and done last week so I’ll I’ll look on the bright side there what I lost in real money I made up with fake money and I wanted done contest so that’s good it’s kind of been like the nature of the business I guess when you look at it too because I’ve had three second place finishes in four events I did not have Tom Kim with you last week Nick I also gave out from my best bet an Adam Scott over will zalatoris first round play zalatoris makes eight birdies in round one continues the next three days to combine to only make seven at Adam Scott beats him three of the four rounds and you know it’s one of those things where I think if you’re at a power rank like matchup markets the full tournament bets are always going to be the best I think the round two and three plays would probably be second and third I’ve always been a proponent that the worst matchup to take on is usually the round one matchups just because sometimes you can get these fluky results that come into play there and I if you can take them on in round one there’s usually a market to take them on for the full event but it’s been tough with some of these m UPS like zotus was the prime example of that last week he has been so the market has been so skewed against him in every single capacity to try to oppose him in a lot of these spots and unfortunately when that ends up happening and you can’t find a pre-tournament matchup and you land in that round one matchup like it is what it is I I think there has been a little bit of run bad from us on the show as I said that’s sports betting at the end of the day you’re going to have es and flows and all you can do is try trust your numbers but you know still been a profitable year for the most part across the board in a lot of these markets and being able to have a 156 man field once again this week really does help to get back to where I think all of our bread and butters would be for for golf betting another week where I didn’t hit the outright closest call was AE batia but thankfully best bet on the show last week was batia top 10 while everybody was freaking out about the protesters and all the paint on the Green there was a putt for par for a batia that he needed to make to finish in TI for fifth which stayed in the top 10 without a chop with if he had have missed it he would have tied for ninth and gotten chopped and so I was very nervous on that five foot putt he made it catched the top 10 and the top 20 no first- round leader no outright winner but still a profitable week uh seems like that’s been the theme Best Bets been hitting on my side but not the outrights recently uh no bets for me this week but guys back to our Best Bets for this week Spencer you like Carson young over Ben Silverman why are you trying to take on the Canadian my model has actively backed Ben Silverman in a lot of spots this season he was my best bet at the Mexico open when he landed 13th there have been a few other situations recently where he’s graded as one of the best values that I’ve had on the board inside my model although I think it’s that exact reason of him shifting into one of the worst values on this slate that explains why I like this head-to-head wager as much as I did when it opened on Monday there are particular I golfers for me weekly that I know I’m almost always going to be lower on than consensus I I talked about will zures that has been for the past three or four months every single tournament I would say Taylor Moore has transformed into that sort of a play I I have an Eric Van royan wager that I’ll talk about later in the show where um my model seems to always be lower on him but those are names where I typically want more of a significant Edge sense the market has really started to move in that direction of wanting to take on those players to begin with all three are fade candidates weekly but we rarely get these matchups that are included in the space where I can pit a fringe top 50 golfer which would be Carson young for me against the name that landed outside of my top 100 there is a chance that this goes miscut versus miscut I I always want to preface this on the show because as I say for these matchups and as we get to the bottom of the board and a lot of these things it’s always going to be the fade candidate over the player that I’m going to want to back in a spot like there’s a lot that my model likes about Carson Young when comparing him to the the section of the board of where he’s at but it really comes down to the Silverman profile he ranked outside of the top 130 of this field in my model when I combined distance short iron play and putting into one category he also failed to crack the top 100 for easy scoring production Donald Ross history weighted Strokes gain total projected scoring and weighted ball striking that’s almost across the board l landing outside of the top 100 in all the main categories that I’m looking at this week as I said it still takes some semblance of an opponent that I’m willing to Target since I’m not going to fade Silverman against just another low-end option blindly that I don’t want to actually have exposure to but we rarely get these battles where there’s going to be somebody outside of the top 100 and then you look at Carson Young Who landed 42nd for me in my sheet inside of the top 50 of all iterations of my market I thought this was a very soft price and and I believe we get that soft price here just because of this we’ll call it a boomer bus nature with Silverman that’s coming to play recently but my model in this particular spot and it’s what I keep going back to has been very locked in on spots where it’s wanted to play him where he’s performed and positions where it’s wanted to fade him where he’s miscut so I like where my model is trending looking at plays against Silverman so I’m going to oppose him here in a battle against Carson young all right so the fade of Silverman is on this week for Spencer Nick why are you backing Andrew Novak in the top 40 Market at plus money overall just ball striking in the field strength I know he’s missed the cut the last two times here I believe he missed the cut um by Two Strokes last year but everything that I pull obviously it’s a little bit of a a hit or miss type of golf golfer you know he’s really lost his form in early May there with a Strokes scan approach and strokes scan ball striking overall but that came back to life at the RBC Canadian I feel like the the time off has probably helped these guys especially guys that are fighting for you know their PJ to or future getting into the FedEx Cup all that good stuff so it’s been the best year of his career in terms of like overall placements we have multiple top 10 this season um he kind of checks every single box for me the the wedge play from 50 to 100 the the longer iron play from 200 plus that I’ve been looking at here and overall like for me it’s like two different profiles of golfers I want guys that can kind of bomag us like you know we saw Bryson do back in I think 2020 the co year and those guys that do miss Fairways have to have Elite short games in my opinion to to get inside the top 10 top five and obviously win this tournament and then those that can just are overall really good at total driving everything that I’ve seen from Andrew Novak off the tea looks like he is long and accurate which is great and again the the iron play ceiling that we’ve seen this year and overall floor I think is plenty to get inside the top 40 on this field I had this number right at like even money plus 105 so I’m reaching a little bit with only 20 to 25 points of value but with the ties paid in full I haven’t necessarily been able to to equate that but I would equate that to roughly 15 points I don’t know if Spencer has an actual mathematical number there but we’ve tried to figure this out a little bit over the years but that’s what I would say you know it’s roughly a 15-point edge with the ties and full so I’ll go there and you noted that there’s been a little bit of time off for Andrew no back in like several other like a lot of players in this field he hasn’t played over the last few weeks where if you remember last three weeks on the PGA tour signature event in the Memorial tournament then a major championship in the US Open then another signature event with another 70 fand field in last week’s Travelers Championship so 156 man field just do the math math most of them can’t be in the field if there’s only 70 players in the field in two of those three tournaments and the other one’s the US Open where You’ got the open qualifi so some of these guys got in through open qualifying others got in through other ways but the majority of them didn’t play in at least two of those tournaments and if not even three like Novak and so it’s going to be an interesting spot on the schedule where there’s a little bit less form to go off of this week compared to other weeks where guys have played consistently over the last month leading into the tournament so that’ll be something to watch this week gentlemen the golf is at Detroit Golf Club this week on the PGA tour you guys have noted that it is a Donald Ross design uh what are we weighing in our models this week for Detroit Golf Club Spencer I’ll give you the floor first so we have seen an average winning score of 23 under during the opening five attempts of this tournament you get wideopen layouts at the property which Nick has alluded to has turned mostly into this bomb and gouge mindset since many of the blockages from trees or methodically BL placed bunkers can be taken out of play for those with extra length off the tea we do get a venue that has 4 in thick rough throughout that’s supposed to heighten the challenge but it’s hard to see it accomplish that goal since it really just adds to the distance narratives for those who can carry the ball further with the driver in hand we’ve talked about this Ross designed the venue in 1914 many of the quirks implemented then are still relevant today we know Ross always has complicated runoff areas around the green to add to the difficulty this is going to be a much more subdued version compared to most of those examples you’re going to get marginal undulation there are still these several tiers to Traverse on the greens although the medium size green complexes are not quite the same test that players got a few weeks ago at Pinehurst it’s always very difficult for these tournaments because I don’t want to call this I think when you call a tournament a birdie Fest it always signifies a relatively weak tournament where you can’t find a realistic just because it comes down to that volatile nature of putting I would say it’s a glorified version of that this week where distance and short iron play will amplifi upside totals at this very straightforward track when we talk about the putter golfers have rendered nearly a 5% increase in dispersion of scoring with the flat stick that means we see a venue that emphasizes distance like I talked about and putting at at its core but there is that approach nature for this venue just under a 10% uptick and shots have come from 0 to 150 yards that includes a 177% mark overall from 0 to 100 that total is going to be about as high as any course that you’ll see on tour yearly I do think all of those answers probably take away some of the advantage from building a model you’re going to see from a DFS perspective people are going to land in a lot of the same spots just because it’s that three prong approach here where it’s distance short iron play putting everybody’s going to continue to build build this in the same capacity for a DFS answer there’s a lot of ways to get unique and different and it doesn’t mean that all the chalk plays are bad plays a lot of them are the best plays on the board there are going to be opportunities though to find leverage in those spots and for the betting Market which is what we’re primarily talking about here I’m trying to find in individual mistakes that were made on players whether that’s the the golfers that I want to back which is a Nikolai hoard which I’ll get to in a second or any of these names that I’m much lower on than consensus you know whether that’s an Eric Van royan um I talked about Ben Silverman I mean that’s not necessarily the same example there because he’s the bottom of the board but it’s kind of just finding these Market errors for an event like this and finding the players that I’m higher or lower on than consensus Nick anything you’d like to add anything you’re weighing in your model that hasn’t come up yet yeah I mean it’s I I I think Spencer nailed it on the head I think this was the hardest week for me to actually try to like push a model I think it’s overall like it’s a ball Striker’s course with a hot putter um and yeah it look like we haven’t seen I guess Ricky isn’t really a long hitter so he was one of the more accurate players but he got it up and down around the green so damn well so I think for like the guys that I’m interested in either are Fairway finders with great around the green and ball striking overall or just bomag gouge guys that can get it up around the green so I think maybe a little bit more around the green for me if they are a little bit erratic but other than that it’s it’s going to be who gets out with the putter unfortunately I do think this is that that birdie Fest that putting is going to change a lot of so I will weigh that very heavily it looks like the field loves Maverick mcney and you know I was looking at guys like Aaron Ry and then when I was you know looking at 33 to one I was like I just probably can’t push that button when we’re going to have to rely on the flat stick a lot so it’s interesting I I think it’s on the DFS side and event I will like a lot but on the betting side I do have a full card I just I I don’t know there’s not much short bets on my card so I’m interested to see where we land and and I am interested to see a lot of these guys that haven’t played in a while I I do think that there’s a lot of these we’ll call them mid-tier players maybe on the highend answer of that with the Maverick mcnees and the Aaron rise and all those names where the market acted very swiftly Aon Ry opened at 40 to1 and immediately for the most part got pushed down 10ish points you look at the same answer that’s given with Taylor pendri that’s a name that I have on my card this week but it’s one of those I don’t want to say it’s a gross tournament but because I I do happen to kind of like this board for the most part but you do have these situations where there are numbers where my model thought there was value on certain players but I thought the market did a decent job even though we don’t have a ton of hold percentage on this board compared to some of these other weeks it’s definitely on the lower end and maybe that’s just the removal of Scotty that books felt a little bit more freedom to price this in a a better nature and that’s why we have a little bit more potential here on the outright Market but I mean you’re with a lot of these names at Maverick McNeely 30 Aaron Ry 3540 Taylor pendrith in the 40 range like I like all of these plays it’s just you can’t play everybody and you have to pick and choose your decisions here I thought it was interesting that last year among the top few players on the leaderboard you might remember that Colin morawa and Adam hadwin went into a playoff where Fowler defeated them on the first tll by making birdie there are different Avenues to getting into that playoff Ricky Fowler was second in the field in Strokes gain approach Colin Mory Kawa or sorry Adam hadwin actually lost Strokes off the T but had one of the most hot Putters that week he finished second in Strokes gain putting and Taylor Moore tied for fourth three shots behind the trio that made the playoff at 24 under he lost Strokes for the week on approach but he had the hottest putter in the field gained nearly 10 Strokes for the week with his putter so you can cover up some mistakes with the putter on this golf course they are bent grass and COA uh putting surfaces which is the same as last week second time on tour we’ve had that exact surface and with Bentgrass being around the greens as with uh Bentgrass being on the greens and then the I believe it’s Kentucky Bluegrass rough it’s not as penal as like a Bermuda where it really gives those the professionals trouble we’ll also note that there’s been some rain in the Detroit area recently so it’s going to play relatively soft it was raining throughout the final round last year they weren’t sure that they were going to finish it uh but expect softer conditions scoring conditions really I thought one thing that wasn’t talked about a ton was at the US Open between 2014 the last time they played it and now 2024 the putting surfaces changed from Bentgrass to Bermuda which made a lot more challenging around the green where you can’t just Martin kimer it and putt it everywhere because you got more grain and that makes it more challenging but this week there is no Bermuda on the golf course so don’t have to worry about that I think that makes it a little bit easier and as we said sof scoring add conditions Spencer you noted that Taylor pendrith is one of the golfers on your outright betting card we do not have to worry about Scotty sheffler sheering us this week so without further Ado Spencer who is on your outright B card this week the first ticket that I punched was on Min woi at 22 to1 you can still shop around and find 21 to1 if you’re proactive in your search there was no player in this field that had a higher higher ceiling projection for me than Lee my model ranked him second for distance plus proximity plus putting you know Roberto you just talked about this there is not one way to get this done and and I agree and that’s why anybody that’s looking only for golfers I think this is how you get caught in the Cameron Champ trap that ends up occurring because you’re just trying to find guys to hit the ball far that’s not all of what this is It’s a portion of my model that’s going to be important but if if you have two of those three areas where you can Excel I think you can compete in this tournament and if you can find a way to be top end topnotch in in two one or two of those areas that’s how you win this event so uh minwoo popped in that territory for me he also graded second for weighted Strokes gain total I understand the market initially felt some trepidation for a golfer who doesn’t have a top 20 on his resume over the past eight tournaments but I also thought the initial opening price that we got discounted his five consecutive top 26 finishes just one of those positions where my model’s always going to land with someone being of value when they’re 20 to1 or higher when they grade as the top upside performer in my model I took Nikolai hoard at 66 to one that was my largest exposure wager of the week I bet him to win just under 10 units for the sake of comparison with everyone else we’re right in the range of roughly seven units when I built my model to start the season I envisioned a very different year than what we’ve gotten so far in 2024 so if if we exclude this early season production where he had top 10 showings at the Dubai Desert Classic he followed that up at the Farmers Insurance open where In fairness I think he I I ended up having him that week I I ended up betting him in tournament there I liked them pre-event at 50 to1 too um very well could have probably should have won that event over pavon things didn’t end up going right but since that moment he’s yet to have a top 15 finish in 12 starts that includes four Mis cuts and additional four finishes Landing 50 at or worst I know none of that necessarily Paints the best picture here for a golfer that entering the season like hoard and minwoo were the two names that I was expecting to really transform themselves into formidable top 20 25 sort of players with realistic win Equity any week that they’ve played and we haven’t necessarily gotten that from either one but the statistical perspective from hoard here was super intriguing my model ranked him first in this field when you combine that distance proximity and putting that I keep talking about it also found an upside for him to use his length off the T to overcome some of the recent questionable returns with the driver he had the most topend results from a data driven portion of my model he landed inside of the top three and five of the seven categories I weighed that is an astronomical return for a golfer that opened at 66 to1 here anything that you’re going to get in the market like even the 50s and the low end at some of these books I’m going to have value there just because of the the upside that I had in hoard inside of my model here you get this D distance enhanced golfer with the weighted proximity requirements who also by the way has positive trajectory with his putter on similar green complexes I know what the floor is I I surely understand that with what we’ve seen recently I just thought this was a really good number grab if you are trying to shoot for upside there talked about Taylor pendrith 40 to1 is what I got him at the best you can find now is 30 to1 he’s generated seven top 333 finishes over his past eight starts that includes a victory four additional top 25 finishes a lot of that has been putter heavy in its nature but there wasn’t a golfer in my model who graded better on easyc scoring courses or recent Strokes gain total than him and then I closed out my card this we’ve talked about numbers moving whether you want to view it positively or negatively I mean there’s closing line value in all those tickets but here’s one that’s gone in the opposite direction I took Taylor Montgomery at 100 to one you can find that at 175 to one now I don’t know where he’s at with his game he’s withdrawn at the Valero Texas open same thing happened at the Byron Nelson during his past two starts however I believe that’s why we’re getting this enhanced total to consider here for a golfer if if he entered this week with form and known Health he is the prototypical fit that we’re talking about that you’d want to see at this course he has just enough distance he’s one of the best Putters in the world and while all of the expected approach play that you get from him on a weekly basis will always have problems where he has his most upside comes from these shorter ranges here so you add all of that together when you’re looking at those three answers there was only one golfer in this field that graded above him from a course specific Outlook there that’s the hoyu guard discussion I kept having so the floor is going to be another potential withdrawal I’m okay taking on the unknown there when you get a price like this and it’s honestly one of those situations where it’s it’s fingers crossed that he’s able to return back to where he was I mean a season ago would be the best when we were getting the best results from him but even if we can just return this to positive Health this is a very nice course specific fit for him so uh it’s it’s a blind wager in the sense that I don’t know where he’s at I do think though if he had any form this is probably a 50 to one ticket remember was close in Montgomery sorry I was just I was like I think feel like the layoff for him what he hasn’t played since first week of May and that’s when he went through again too so it’s like there’s no way it can hurt I mean especially if the number is 175 to lose yeah Taylor Montgomery had his best week on Approach at the Sony Open in Hawaii second week of the Season obviously didn’t play at the Sentry and I used him for one and done at the American Express and I was broadcasting that tournament so I wasn’t betting it but I would have bet him had I not been broadcasting it and since then it’s been pretty rough for him he hasn’t gained Strokes off the te since the Sony Open and on approach it’s been pretty rough since the Phoenix Open it just screams that he’s an injured golfer and that he’s got to get healthy um he’s a long guy off the te got the unusual swing where he’s not even looking at the ball when he makes contact with it and he’s got to figure something out right now with Drew from the PJ Championship as I think you mentioned Spencer as well so he just hasn’t played if he plays definitely somebody to keep an eye out for this week and could be a valuable player because like the American Express it bombs away off the te and if you can roll the rock watch out he could be a Taylor Moore candidate to just go nuclear on the greens with his uh quirky little self-painted white putter um but he can roll the rock with the best of them on the PJ tour he might have been number one in throk game putting last year on the PJ tour double check that but he’s number one in number one in my projected model for putting and I think Nick said it best if this was a situation where he had pulled out of a tournament two weeks ago and then was forced to withdraw again last week I’d be much less inclined to want to jump into this position but it’s that out of sight out of mind over the past you know month plus where I don’t necessarily know where he’s at with his health and that there’s a detrimental quality about that because there’s he could pull out of the event but when it’s already baked into this price because the market doesn’t know what to do with them it’s a extremely and I I want to stress the word extremely low floor sort of a play here because at the very worst of what happens is is he hits a ball on Thursday or hits a couple balls on Thursday and he doesn’t make it through the day that’s the worst case scenario that can happen the best case scenario is he’s fully healthy and ready to go and you get a golfer that got boosted in price so I like that we haven’t seen him in quite a bit of time I’m going to bet on the potential here that he’s returning the health but there is no safety in this bet whatsoever his last two rounds on the PGA tour an 80 and an 81 an 81 yeah but he has upside if he’s healthy uh I think this is the right way to bet him if you’re gonna bet him don’t bet him in the top 40 Market don’t don’t do that yeah shoot it as far up the board as you can whether it’s an outright or a top five or a 10 like you don’t want to play him in safety markets he’s he’s a he’s a Target that’s completely off the board in matchups he’s not worth the BET as a top 40 this is the Boomer bust All or Nothing approach any thoughts on him from a DFS perspective I I like him right now I see him at 2% in my model and maybe Nick can give me a different number for what he has that numbers trended up a little bit over the past 24 hours when when I built my model on Monday he was sub 1% and there’s enough people out there that are probably willing to take a chance just on name recognition and the price tag here that he probably closes Nick you can tell me what you think I think he probably closes somewhere between three and five% I’ll take the under all day okay I don’t think I don’t think he’ll cross two well then even better based off of that answer then like I think there’s a way to get exponentially overweight on him while still you know only being at like if he’s 2% I mean I I’ll take five times oh I mean I’ll I’ll take him at like 10% there I I think there’s a withdrawal potential so I don’t necessarily want to go full send but um I mean somewhere between 10 15 percent I’m I’m fine with that Nick you mentioned you have a full card this week who you got in your outright betting Market all right here we go so our buddy at bet 365 laid a good number I love Keith Mitchell I’m surprised Spencer didn’t really mention his name at 40 to one for a ball Striker who is getting hotter with the putter I want to say the bent grass has been his friend at least on the on the putting side of things I know that’s going to be our it has been my model with with Keith Mitchell so similar to kind of what we were doing with Jer early on when he started to move to benr I feel like that’s when we were attacking him and his ball striking coming back too so I’m I was interested in him at the top of the board I I did have room for someone in the 20s and I looked at mmu hard I just don’t believe in the iron play as much as I do this guy the issue here is AE has played eight times in a row this would make tournament number nine I think Tom Kim’s going on nine or 10 too yeah I’ll probably fade Tom Kim in DFS just because I’m hurt after what happened last week and that had to be a big mental grind I think he’s young he can continue to just play golf like a probably I I don’t think I’m worried about the eight in a row um so you guys if you got any thoughts on that let me know I took a bomb at 500 to1 um just because I’ve kind of been keeping my eye on this guy he went to University of Illinois has a ton of birdies per round on B GRE bent grass greens and kind of Lights it up even on the when he was on the corn Fair tour anywhere in the midwest this guy has a ton of game his stroke scand data is not going to look that great but it’s it’s a low sample size but Adrien Dumont de chart I took him to win win at 500 to one um that is he I guess the greatest outcome for me personally if he wins that’d be fantastic uh I went back to Alex no in 35 to1 Andrew Novak 125 to1 and Taylor pendrith was the last ticket I had room for at 30 to1 I was looking at Aaron Ry but then like I said earlier it’s kind of like why would I take a guy that can’t make a putt Aaron Ry is more like a a top 10 upside play I guess and that’s probably his ceiling so yeah when I was looking at like Stephen was close but the numbers kind of moved against me Davis Thompson I think the numberers a little too short as much as I love that guy I think his swing and his game has a long way to get or will be on the PJ tour for a long time but I went with Taylor pendrith I think his game’s in a great spot and that’s a guy that if I’m backing a putter I’m I’m fine with backing him and yeah that is it on the outright market so thoughts on pendrith I don’t really need to hear much on novc I’m probably lighting money on fire betting him uh dant I’m okay it’s just 500 one I’ll damn near about anybody at 500 one and then norin and a I don’t think anybody’s talking me off ke that be a lot so I I want to touch on the Keith Mitchell discussion um you mentioned it Nick with when we look at putting here so 85th in my model over a two-year perspective in Strokes gain putting you put him on comp courses with similar green complexes he jumped to 36th overall for me I ended up weighing it a little bit differently in my model where his weighted putting ended up being 53rd but I feel like we have wagered on him so many times on this show and it’s been the same outcome almost every single situation he demolishes in a good way the ball striking where he’s top five or 10 in the tournament and there’s always these bad little go-arounds with the around the green and the putter where he ends up losing like eight to 10 strokes and misses the cut I my model really liked Keith Mitchell I didn’t get there just because I felt like it was one of those situations where my model has seen and played this song and dance before and I always am left in the corner just like by myself with it and it never goes well but um model liked him a lot I’m probably gonna be out on Alex snorin I I don’t know I mean I feel like he may have missed his window to actually win an event right now I I could be wrong on that he’s a top 15 player in my model just I don’t know like I I just I don’t know what a fair price is like to me it’s higher than the numbers that are out there same with DFS too he’s in the 10,000s like what are we doing why is he more expensive than AE pendrith and Ander well that’s part of the problem is like my model prefers all three of those guys over him and a similar answer ends up coming into play even in the betting Market there which is why I’m lower than consensus on him OE is what he is he’s a top 10 player in my model think he’s fine for the most part not going to have an outright ticket on him but understand the play around him the ball striking you have to love for a course like this and then who who’s the other name I’m missing uh pendrith I have the pendrith ticket so yeah I like yeah pendrith is I think one of the better plays on the board I like the Adrian Dante Shar bomb um he’s somebody who how do you how do you say his name before one of us probably Spencer that’s why going to say his name why I didn’t ask for your thoughts on that one I was like I’m setting you up for failure in a you a strongly worded email from corporate if you even try to say his name but yeah addc was awesome last year on the corn Ferry tour and had a bunch of top 10 finishes just looking at the start of or actually let’s take it back a second he wasn’t even on the corn fairy tour for the whole season because 13 months ago he was still in college at ill so he’s a really young player so there’s so there’s upside there he’s just 24 years old in his first event on the corn FY tour after the national championships he went out and won the BMW charity proam and then after that tied for second T8 T6 t7 T10 his first seven starts on the corn fairy tour or sorry first six starts on the corn fairy tour are all top 10 and then kind of struggled after that only one top 15 finish through the rest of the season in his next five starts and hasn’t really had it on the PJ tour one top 10 came in an oppos opposite field event at the Puerto Rico open obviously no data there so it’s a little bit frustrating his other top 25 finish also came at an opposite field event in pakana where again there’s no data so wish we could have seen some of that he is pretty long but other than that it’s been a down year for him but I like the upside play somebody’s going to win this week and the top of the board isn’t that concerning uh you’ve got Tom Kim at 14ish to one as the betting favorite and it’s not Scotty sh so we can all breathe a sight of relief there I think Dean lar could be somebody worth playing some type of ladder at small small risk um because he’s got this upside and he showed that he’s a streaky player and he hasn’t played recently last start came at the Canadian open at the beginning of June so he have a little bit of time off and maybe he’s found something in the time off um I think it’s it’s an interesting play this week I’m I’m very intering to see I uh I pushed that one a little irresponsibly but I win like 150 units if you win so it’d be I’m getting sick of the second place wi this so maybe that guy can make it happen for me and make the next three years profitable just by being alive three made Cuts in a row two of those inside the top 30 like I know you’ve mentioned Roberto that that we haven’t seen him in a handful of weeks at this moment but before he got a little bit of time off he was trending in a positive direction which you take those three finishes and you exclude the Puerto Rico tournament those are his three best finishes that you can find on his resume so clearly he’s been finding something over the past we’ll call it two months of action yeah and I like these on the young players add DC baby um I like that o ba is younger than him by two years crazy um so is Tom cam um love baa I heard there was a quote I’ve been trying to search for it to actually like find it in print I haven’t seen it but I saw uh one of our writers Derek Farnsworth noted that Sal hit theala said at I think it was the PGA or the US Open that Oxi is gonna win multiple major championships and that caught my eye I’m I’m I’m intrigued to hear that and people know that he’s got big Time game so I’m I’m very in on OAA and obviously after he catched the top 10 and top 20 last week the first round leader bet I only bet one first round leader last week and batia made a fun sweat throughout the day uh but Tom Kim got us at the end unfortunately Gentlemen let’s talk one and done speaking of Tom Kim Nick had him last week he was the big winner in our pool because nobody picks Scotty Sheffer nobody has him left I don’t think so 2 million for Nick I was one of a few people who had some somebody tie for fifth I wish I chose Patia but I ended up choosing C Patrick kentley there was no doubt I was going to pick kentley the whole time he got 500 or he got like 700 Grand so Nick and I are in a virtual tie for second I think I’m like 50 Grand ahead of Nick so that’s basically nothing the next signature event will definitely shake things up big time or the next High purse event uh which will be the open so Nick and I are a couple million behind our leader Michael leeo he has Tom k available so I’m not going to choose Tom Kim I’m assuming that LE off’s going to choose Tom Kim and I went with Taylor pendrith love the history here love what you guys have noted about his putter being a great putter he also I think a similar course as far as what’s needed to succeed is the is um AT&T Byron Nelson or sorry the CJ cup Byron Nelson now and he won that last month in May I think there’s a very similar recipe for Success Bomb It Off the tea and give yourself chances to roll in birdie putts so I’ve locked in Taylor pendrith I’d consider moving to Davis Thompson but I think the fit here is just too good for pendri so I’m leaning him strongly over Davis Thompson Roberto outside of me making a lot of cuts here there’s been very little to talk about in this contest I I’m gonna take some credit here I I took Justin Thomas last week and uh that was also a tide for fifth with you like that’s probably the most money that I’ve earned in a contest in the entire season weeks I I don’t know where we’re at at this point but I’m playing a different game as I note every single event I I believe I’m tied right now for first for most Cuts made and don’t really think I have any chance to win this contest so I’m going to play it safe the the funny answer is I don’t know how we’ve landed in this position because I I note this almost every single tournament my player pool got really thin on me fast and there’s a lot of players that I wish I would have had for particular moments that vanished on me and probably the only person in the entire world that has used minwu Lee I played minw Lee at the US Open and so now I don’t even have Min Le available here and that would have been my choice I might just play this safe and go either the Aaron Ry or Tom Kim Ral and not really care about where I’m at to me it’s it’s one of these positions where if you’re actually trying to come from behind here and win a contest you’re going to try to get different minw Lee is going to have some popularity to him I think minwoo I I think Nikolai hoard makes a lot of sense you just have to know what you’re signing up for with him if you’re trying to play things safe the safe routes with it are the Tom Kims the Aaron rise the Maverick mcnees I’m gonna go with Taylor pendrith I I do believe he probably has a little bit more volatility than those other names but those are the four options that likely Garner the most ownership in my opinion but they make a lot of sense for why people are going to play them so at the end of the day it just comes down to are you front running a contest where you’re trying to protect the score are you trying to get a ma cash like I am or are you actually shooting for upside to win the event because if you’re doing that you might have to deviate depending on the size of your contest yeah once again we’re in a small contest only 15 people so we can be a little bit more chalky especially near the top of the board um Spencer I also wanted to note because I don’t think I noted it spoke to you about it before the show but Nikolai hoy entering the Mexico open at Via earlier this season was second on the odds board opened at 19 to1 at Beth 365 and closed at 17 to1 behind only Tony feno by the way should have won that event had he figured out how to putt um awesome to see him putt well last week by the way oard is somebody who made the Ryder Cup team last year and was being talked about in the same type of sentences as L oberg and now look at where they are there’s some potential there for Hoy guard and he’s got as much upside as anybody in this field I believe so I think he’s a really interesting play throughout all faets of the market this week Nick who are you going to play in one and done this week Le me Min Lee because I’ll likely be fading him in the outright market I’ll probably play him M DF best but it was him or AE I feel like I still need a big splash so I’m leaning mwy and I think Spencer’s take on him early on push me in that direction OA playing so many times in a row worries me I don’t know why but it does but Min Le all other guy like I’d play Keith Mitchell if I had him I don’t have him available I don’t know when I did play him is there a way to find out when I can tell you who when you played him yeah so let me know when I played him I think that would be my like my main advisement this week in if I didn’t burn him early and I’m sure you played Keith Mitchell at the cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches and he finished in ninth place for you got 210 Grand so okay I’ll take that I’ll take that especially on a Florida course I think I missed basically the cut every week in Florida this week this year yeah I I like him the most especially on bed grass so he’d be my number one Play I don’t have him so I’m gonna go with MMO for the upside and try to get first place I if we’ve learned anything about this contest it’s the player that I don’t have available that I wish I could actually play is the one that seems to be winning every single tournament so that would be minwoo so subm I I I I like your spot that you’re in Nick all right pcks have been saved and I’m exing out of that window so I can’t Tinker thank you boys all right gentlemen um any other plays on your betting card this week I’ll sing it back to you Nick yeah so I I did actually when you said the ladder thing on addc now we could actually say that without butchering the name I did ride that uh I guess the the highest exposure I have is three to one in the top 40 Market where ties PA and P mentioned Andrew Novak and then you mentioned this guy too and you got the Hat on where he’s from I I love MC meiser I’ve been talking about him for a while I truly believe in his game I don’t know if this is a great course set setup for him um but I did get a ticket at plus 930 for him to finish in the top 10 where taies paid in full I thought that was outrageous in a misprice earlier this morning um so I’m gonna ride that one with the upside because I think that’s a guy that like he’s either going to be lights out I don’t think he’s going to be like a middle of the Packer he’s a miscut or gonna be someone that’s you know in one of the final t10s on Sunday I like the M Meer play T5 at the Charles Schwab uh for his best performance of his rookie year on the PGA tour younger guy at just 25 years old on the PGA tour and just hits it a ton what’s that just hits it a ton and he’s got a good short game so I feel like that like the short game part was kind of like what led me into doing this just because I am weighing that pretty heavily but again whatever we get with the putter is probably what makes a breaks some and most people on our betting card this week I think he’s a cheaper version of Davis Thompson yep that’s good good solid golfer all around if he puts the pieces together can definitely do it isn’t necessarily Elite at any one thing but he’s very solid and in this field definitely could pop yeah and I think both those guys kind of are the makeup of what Ricky fer was in 20123 obviously Ricky’s got pedigree and and closing value and what he’s done in his career but like stats wise if you kind of look at those guys and model them out like they’re all right there Davis being a little further off the te than the rest but yeah we’ll talk Ricky Fowler in a moment but uh want to get Spencer any other plays on your betting card this week Spencer yeah I have a couple um all these tickets have already been punched I I’ll explain why I like them in a second Nick you can try to talk anybody out of this if you have a differing opinion I don’t love the limited data that we have in this situation if we also want to talk about players that could maybe not be trending the right direction this is a golfer that missed the cut during the corn fairy event that he has recently played but I this is a number grab I took Jacob Bridgeman for a top 40 at plus 225 any thoughts on that one Nick I like fremond I thought it was a good number grab above anything else yeah and I I want to say where did I write him down let me he was on one of my recommendations oh the one question I had too let remind me before we go yeah I I think Bridgeman just my issue with him is lack of Fairways but he’s relatively long enough that the short game I think can can carry him you know if he’s bomman and gouin so I do like him a little bit it’s good price very good price on that I thought that was one of the better prices on the board in the placement market and then the other matchup that I have is I took Ryan Fox minus 115 over Eric Van royan if we’re talking a DFS answer here and I’ll merge this into the betting part of it but I didn’t have a player priced in the $7,000 range or higher that graded as a lower more value for me inside of my model than van royan there are certain portions of the statistical profile that show some semblance of upside if you are looking for a Target that can climb up the board but as is the case with all of these matchups I’m I’m always trying to find miscut Equity that was something that van royan gave me much at a much higher rate than any of his counterparts under 19th in his career at Donald Ross courses back-to-back miscuts at Detroit Golf Club maybe the easy your scoring potential can carry him to Greater Heights for a day or two and that’s where this has some I don’t want to even say issues but you know you get into the weekend and all of a sudden Ryan Fox doesn’t make the weekend and that’s how a bet loses where Eric Van royan ends up becoming 47th and you know never really competes on the board but I thought Fox was one of the better leverage plays for DFS I I really liked his profile he was inside of the top 15 for me from an overall rank so while it’s always going to be the fade candidate that I’m looking on Fox didn’t give me any reason to not want to go in his Direction so took Ryan Fox at minus 115 over van royan and that’s that’s the extent of my card right now Ryan Fox been playing some great golf this this year um best putting year of his career by far uh his prior best was last year and he’s getting twice as many strokes per round putting this season so uh not his best on approach but when he has hit the ball well with his irons he’s done well top seven tyer 7th at the Canadian open was in contention there for a long time T4 in Mertle Beach and also T4 in the 2man event the Zer classic of New Orleans and all those results have come in his last eight starts so trending in the right direction the Putter’s been really hot I like the upside for Ryan Fox would not Shock me at all for the big kiwi to get the win uh at 37 and a half years old this week uh I think the bridg bridg and plays a really sharp one too awesome Putter and has done pretty well on these score Bowl courses on the PJ tour so also younger golfer who has upside uh that may not be tapped into not yet in his prime so I think it’s that’s a great play I think it’s a pretty sharp one um let’s talk Ricky Fowler let’s go let’s get get through the board uh since we’ve gone through all of our bets thoughts on Ricky Fowler our defending champion this week you want to start Nick I tried and just I don’t know what is he doing well like he’s scored last week because he just ran putts which I guess you know we’ve talked about that being a an asset this week but I don’t know he was in such good form coming into this event last year and I just don’t see it I’d rather give me Davis say give me too much name value in the pricing here’s my thoughts on Ricky Fowler so there was a por of Monday and I’m going to answer this from a I think for betting the problem is is that kind of like Nick said there’s too much name recognition that comes into play negative leverage for upside in my model that’s not necessarily what you want to see when we look for DFS and Nick you can tell me where you have him projected ownership wise he was a golfer on Monday that there was virtually no ownership around him like whatsoever and he’s been a steady climber for me inside of my model to the point now where he’s a neutral value when you’re looking for leverage and a negative value for the price tag so I kind of planned on wanting to play him when I thought he was going to be 3% owned and and you can you can tell me where you have him Nick I got him at nine to 10 so yeah that’s exactly where I have themable for me yeah it’s exactly where I have him trending also and that’s not what I envisioned when this week started yesterday so at that ownership percentage you’re not even getting any of the leverage that you thought you were getting in that position it’s probably a fair ownership it’s just it’s just not going to be for me at that like I think there are better routes for DFS where I can find and maybe that’s a name that would be further down the board where you can actually save money but there’s like other potential routes that give you very similar upside at ownership that’s not going to be too dissimilar Ricky Fowler per data golf’s true true Strokes gain data is having his Worst season in terms of true Strokes gain total since 2008 and I’ll say ever because in 2008 he only had three starts on the PJ tour so super small sample size wasn’t really on the tour I’m gonna throw that out he’s losing 0.15 shots per round this year it’s been pretty poor it’s looked like 2021 and 2022 version of Ricky Fowler statistically whereas last year looked like Prime Ricky Fowler where the approach play was awesome and the putter was awesome and it just simply hasn’t been like that but hey you get a guy who can absolutely roll the rock on greens that he’s comfortable on on a very scorable golf course and who knows what can happen but I definitely wouldn’t be playing him with prices given throughout the market here’s here’s my biggest problem and and once again I’ll go back to the DFS board if you look at let’s say I mean Ricky Fowler’s $99,000 on sites out there if you look at a golfer like Doug gim who’s 6,900 my model prefers Doug gim in a head-to-head matchup over Ricky Fowler at $2,100 less and half the ownership like that alone signifies that I can’t use them in a build it’s just you know you can have players that are too cheap and and I can think Doug gim is too cheap but that to me if you take the name recognition out of it and gim should be higher priced than he is in fairness that’s more of a player that he should be right next to on the odds board like I have them one spot after the next where gim is minus 101 in my model over Ricky Fowler so you know it it’s just very difficult to get the Ricky at the ownership percentage Gentlemen let’s go through the betting board and talk about uh some golfers this week we talked about Tom Kim very briefly Cameron young we haven’t mentioned him on the show so far 171 second shortest odds outright on bet 365 coming off the 59 on Saturday who knows if there was a cut at The Travelers Championship if he would have even gotten to play on Saturday um but he did toot to 59 remarkable stubbed the chip on 18 but knocked in the 10-footer I thought it was going to miss low but he knocked it in what around it’s still awesome don’t let uh the men yelling at Clouds tell you that 59s don’t mean anything anymore because of the Corn fairy tour it’s the PJ tour hasn’t happened in four years if it didn’t matter it would happened recently if it was that easy nobody’s done this year it was awesome do we have any faith in Cameron young are there any markets that you’d be intrigued to play him more than others DFS probably for me only I mean the problem is I think there’s going to be a lot of ownership around him the outright number has we have found this just to completely syn from where we’re at like this is a golfer and and I’ve noted this on the show you all of a s get monikers attached to you where you become scam young and nobody wants to play you and now after one good finish after he’s done nothing for the entire last two or three months he gives you one result that is really propelled by a 59 which you talked about Roberto that he very well may not have been playing the weekend in a normal situation there and I understand he still produced that and he started Sunday very hot and worked himself up the leaderboard but he’s a top 10 player in my model he’s seventh for me in projected win Equity the problem is is in most of these books he’s going to be the second name on the board whether that’s DFS or betting I I’d rather play minw Le than him I’d rather play AE batia than him probably like that’s more of the section though like where I don’t know how I can get to him in really any capacity don’t dislike him just I I feel very hant about him this week um Tom Kim or cameon Tom for $300 more on DFS I would rather get to Tom Kim I see cam young at 20% ownership we’re not even getting any leverage based off of that answer the distance and the short iron proximity incredible like this is the type of venue that if he’s ever going to win at this is the type of event that you would expect him to win there are some negative marks for him in my model though I know he’s a birdie maker but when you throw him on easyc scoring courses he sometimes doesn’t become a birdie maker so um I I don’t know as I said he’s seventh for me and projected win Equity as a golfer that’s going off as the second name on the board that’s that to me is the biggest red flag in the problem that I have it’s not that he is some glaring error to where he has no projected win equity and if he goes and he beats me he beats me here I just can’t get there when you’re going to be the second name on the board and you’re not inside of the top six of my model we talked about mimu Lee and a batia but joer and mcney Jagger’s 27 to1 mcne is 30 to1 if you had to have an outright ticket on either one of those guys Nick which one would you pick I’m gonna surprise the folks I’m actually GNA go with Maverick mcney I do like him I think for the little bit longer price give me Maverick um and how much we’re talking about putting I think this actually a really good course for him he’s had great course history here too when his game’s been in form his game is back in form I got nothing wrong to say about Maverick M I mean I guess this will be a surprising answer for me also because I seem to have become the Stephen Jagger guy on this show um I’m gonna say Maverick mcney I thought Aaron Ryan Maverick mcney were the two option and maybe Davis Thompson I’ll throw him into the mix too like they were the three options to where at a different number I would have been very intrigued to to try to get exposure to them I thought each one of those three ended up being a little bit too short but look if any of those three go out and win this golf tournament I’m not gonna be shocked if it’s gonna be a putting contest this week I’d much rather have Maverick McNeely than Steph joerger Spencer you hit on Steph jger at the Houston open his putter was super hot that week since then he’s played in Eight tournaments he’s lost Strokes putting in seven of those eight however the one that he did gain in that span he gained over four strokes putting for the tournament so you never know what you’re going to get with Stephen jer’s putter but it’s probably not going to be great whereas Maverick mcm’s putter just about always is an asset and he was third here in Strokes gain putting in 2020 when Shambo won in Detroit joerger had positive trajectory for me with his putter um in in the Houston event and that’s one of the reasons why I ended up punching the outright ticket on him you look specifically here and this is my biggest concern he’s 76th in my model over a 2-year duration similar comp courses with similar greens he’s 143rd if he’s 143rd with the putter all the ball striking metrics are going to look incredible if you could give me a 76 Place projection with the putter he probably would have landed inside the top six or seven of my model but without that he’s a name that just missed the top 10 and he moved in the wrong direction for upside it’s at the end of the day it’s a birdie Fest to where you’re going to have to make putts and I’m not so sure for four days if we’re talking to actually win this event we we can have other discussions about him for why I think his ball striking makes him a safer Target to consider but if we’re talking about actually winning the event I’m gonna have to make putts for four days I don’t know if I trust him to do that who do you guys think is the best golfer whom you guarantee will not win this week boy let me look could look bad next week but who do you guys think it is gotta take a stand I will go the best golf for like you’re saying he can finish second or just overall like pedigree and just no chance he wins either way I’m gonna go with cameon oh second on the odds okay that’s spicy I I will go with Alex noren messed up man uh nor 32 to we talked about Aaron Ry a little bit mentioned Davis Thompson mentioned Keith Mitchell will zalatoris is 45 to one Adam senson is 55 to one Bobby Mack fresh off of his Canadian open Win is 45 to one if you had to punch a ticket on in the outright Market on Z tus McIntyre or senson which one would you take Nick I would I don’t know maybe zot Torres can hit lightning in a battle again like he did round one last week I’ll go with him I do like McIntyre I think what he’s changed with that he’s doing that like arm pin to his ribs and putting with that back arm actually do that it doesn’t help my putting but obviously he’s a he’s a better putter than I am I’m very close to seeing McIntyre but I I’ll still take s but the market hates this week he and I’ve been kind of saying it all week like or all year he’s been broken his distance gone right now SS changed I I damn it I’m gon go in with McIntyre I don’t want either three of these names like this is if you want to talk about players in my model that you know we’re talking about who cannot win the very easy answers for me in my model would have been zalatoris and McIntyre if we start pushing this a little bit further down the board on it I guess I’m going to say the most likely winner of that group which is the opposite answer that I’ve given on this show over the past six months is probably zalot Taurus like there is a potential that he returns back I don’t even want to say to where he was at but maybe like he has a higher ceiling than the other two names in my opinion but I mean th this is me just grabbing a pedigreed golfer who at one part of his career before the back injury was a legitimate top 10 caliber golfer on tour so I’d rather bet on that profile that he returns in a field that is for the most part very week there’s not a lot of topend talent in this so I’ll go with zotus but I don’t feel necessarily comfortable with any of the names I agree with your sentiments on zot Torres he is he definitely has the most upside I just don’t trust him to put it together I don’t know that he’s healthy the iron play is not been consistent the ball speed on the driver driving distance has fallen off it’s a big red flag for me right now we discussed this last week so I’m not going to talk about it further but senson is a really interesting person for me because this guy gains stroke moderately not anything crazy but around the green off the tea and on approach basically every week for the last few months and he just can’t putt but last week at The Travelers gain Strokes putting gained about two strokes for the tournament ties for 16th I think that’s an encouraging sign I just don’t think there’s very much upside with the putter he hasn’t gained a stroke per round with the putter in over a in since the winam championship last year and so we know that he does have upside Spencer you hit on him at the RSM classic when he gained three Strokes per round with the putter I believe that’s only over two of the two or three of the four rounds because of the course rotation there so it’s not a full tournament three Strokes per round but if he can put the putter together there’s definitely upside with Adam senson and he hits these absolute lasers where there’s as little curve on the golf ball as any other player on the PJ tour he’s a really interesting golfer um but I wouldn’t trust his putter or zor putter or zor is wild striking so I would also go Bobby Mack there that’s that’s just uh just for the record if my model was to answer the questions spencon would have been the name that my model preferred over all of those options um I just don’t he he was a top 25 overall ranker for me which the other two were not there’s some other interesting names UH 60 to1 Taylor Moore Spencer I know you really don’t like him in your model it’s been a persistent theme and I think he was really bad last week um nicolay hoard whom we’ve talked about a 60 to1 Matt Wallace somebody Nick I know you back before in some of these tournaments he’s a easy course Merchant on the PJ tour could be interesting to see how he does this week uh Cameron Davis past winner here is 60 to1 the lone shark Ben Griffin played really well at the Canadian open Spencer you had a ticket on him that week and he was dealing with some eye issues he had some surgery and now he’s wearing sunglasses full time on the PJ tour uh he’s got some floaters that he said might be a problem for him persistently and then Chris Kirk is also 75 to1 winner earlier this season at the Sentry and then hasn’t done a ton recently and then also Nick Dunlap winner at the American Express 85 to1 Ricky Fellers 80 to1 if you had to make an outright bet on one of these guys Matt Wallace 60 to1 Cam Davis 60 to1 Ben Griffin 70 to1 Chris Kirk 75 to1 or Nick Dunlap at 80 5 to1 Nick which one would you like the outright ticket on much as I love Matt Wallace I do think he’s got a lot of win equity and I was very close there what was that CJ cup when or Byron Nelson fourth he can make putts I’m I’m gonna go with him but I do think this is a decent sneaky course for Nick dun too me too T4 the Nelson by the way yes give me yeah give me Matt Wallace I I believe in this guy’s game if Fairways being missed don’t necessarily matter here he’s hitting the ball long love his short game I’m gonna go with Matt Wallace but he lets me down more times than he helps me just for getting that out there in the Airways Matt Wallace for me was if we’re talking players that are let’s say over 50 to one on the opener was the closest name that I had that did not make my card that I really wanted to find a way to get exposure to and the reason why I didn’t is I don’t love players that are coming in he just played over in the Netherlands and I know that he’s expressed how tired he is he loves this course this is why he’s here that was enough of a reason for me not to put him on my outright card I do believe he’s a really intriguing first round leader bet that he might be able on day one to keep it going and then you know I don’t know what happens after that but 10th in my model in expected Strokes gain total for this course there is a ton to love about him this week and um there are a handful of names and and we’ve discussed a lot of these already on the show where if they were to win there will be regrets you can’t bet everybody and they didn’t end up making my outright card but Matt Wallace is right up there with any of those names there’s as a win Equity candidate he’s a top 50 win Equity candidate for me in my sheet and if you ran this for safety he became a top 10 player so I I like Wallace quite a bit didn’t realize he had gone all the way across the world uh last week but that’s going to be a heck of a travel trip um hopefully it works out for him uh gentlemen fun show where can we find your work this week nick uh the Best Bets article at Action Network and then potentially Spencer and I do an a podcast for better golf po I’ve just been traveling so much for work so I apologize for any of the listeners out there I greatly appreciate your support and then uh potentially doing another Underdog draft as well on Twitter this week to end out June so at stick piix on Twitter stiix pic ckss all right top 40 Market is back Nick’s back great to have you this week Nick Spencer where can we find your work this week yeah have you noticed the the the trend of that that Nick only comes on the show when there’s a top 40 market like I I hear the work answer Nick but we know it’s the top 40 Market is back and that’s your bread and butter so uh you can find me on Twitter at tof sports you can get any of my in tournament bets over at Action Network and you can get my model at Roto baller question before we end I uh you guys I told you to remind me you did not so Shame on You Luke Clanton the Florida state am is steaming the betting Market or is that the betting Market saying they just don’t no and they don’t want the risk so they’re just going to price him out this swing looks beautiful and he is lighting up the NCA tour so it’s kind of like I don’t want to say he’s L Vic Jr but good God like I saw top 40 is like even money on him so I don’t know how to take that I personally took it as like they just don’t want the rest don’t want to mess with it but I don’t know if you’re a bookmaker in my opinion you should take risk and get enticing action on hot main players that probably will not they C at a PGA Tour event he a he is a favorite in every matchup other than Matt Wallace the fact that there’s matchups right like and he’s a favorite against golfers that I think we like Meisner being the number one example there I like Meisner this week also like I didn’t really um give my two cents on him but that’s a golfer that I also like so to be a favorite against him my model was a little bit higher on Davis Riley than I think public consensus is going to be so like I even thought that one was interesting and you look at him against Wallace I want to say it’s at a book out there the you can correct me Nick if you have up in front of you like I I got it yeah minus 125 minus whatever it was on the other end yeah I got Luc at minus 103 Matt Wallace 125 there yeah so like that’s a really credible opponent where he’s holding his own I WS is respected too so very respected I don’t I don’t get it maybe this kids awesome all right always interesting it’s it’s always very interest and I’m happy you brought that up Nick it’s I don’t have enough data to give an answer on this but for a market to respect them as much as it is I think there’s a reason to at least take it as a considerable note and then you can make a decision based off of that but I I would not be eliminating him from a player pool without doing your due diligence in your research with it I’m seeing like 8% ownership too and that’s it’s it’s wild how popular he is on top of it what the hell yeah I think principal I’m out but probably the same also there’s a 15-year-old in the field this week Russell unbelievable that’ll be fun to watch um there was a awesome Monday qualifier moment yesterday where uh gentleman Nick beans who I hope I pronounced that right he qualified on the Monday qualifier was part of a five for four playoff got through was in the clubhouse before the playoff actually and down three beers because he was so nervous and just enough to take the edge off and I’m sure he had a few more beers after the round as well he after that story went viral Kevin kizner said pair him with me unfortunately we didn’t get the pairing uh I think there’s a general procedure where players who don’t have status get put at the beginning or the end of the day on Thursday Friday and so that’s just how it works uh but that would have been awesome had they amended that and put with uh Kevin kizner but I’ll be rooting for Nick beans who is a Golf Galaxy employee when he’s not playing golf and normally he travels with eight days worth of clothes to whatever pre-qualifier he’s going to and obviously got through the pre-qualifier got through the Monday qualifier didn’t bring close for this week so he’s got to figure that out uh but best of luck to him hopefully he makes the cut and one suggestion I have for every event on the PGA tour would love to see a Monday qualified open to anybody let the live guys back in let 10 guys in on a Monday qualifier obviously there have to be more pre-qualifiers etc etc but I think it would be fun if you got a Monday event every week get them into the Signature Events where this guy gets a Payday where now he still got a battle to get a Payday the next two days would love to see that if they’re going to keep the signature event model somewhat similar to what it is and let some hot guys in and televis it on Monday nobody’s watching anything on Mondays uh outside of WNBA maybe uh the rest of the season because College baseball’s over um I I saw people thenen moing that beans um you guys can fact check fact check me on this I don’t know this to be 100% real but like the amount of money that I saw going to him with people sending him like $500 here and there he he maybe has made more money this year than Jordan spe he was rolling in the dough yesterday good for him um well I think we’ll all be written for him uh it should be an awesome week of course you can tune in on PJ Tour live I will be the relief host on the Main feed this week first time this year on the Main feed so very excited for that to be on the Big Show also be in relief on the Marquee group coverage so whoever the big names we choose to follow likely some combination of Tom Kim Cameron young mini I would assume is going to be on that stream hasn’t come out yet so don’t uh hold me to it but very excited for this tournament it’s wide open fun betting board and it should be a blast to cover it lots of birdies in the in the makings this week uh just wanted to share a reminder that this podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see y it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or- 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply gentlemen fun show thanks for making the time this week it was a blast and we’ll see you guys next week for the John Deere classic where there will be a top 40 market and who knows maybe there’ll be a wild Hammer kid running around but until then thanks for tuning in and we’ll see you next week