Rocket Mortgage Classic | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Detroit Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
0:32 Course Preview
4:30 10K Range
14:15 9K Range
17:50 8K Range
21:52 7K Range
24:43 6K Range
26:50 5K Range
28:15 Custom Model
30:20 Outro

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what’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s rocket mortgage classic for those of you who are watching on YouTube clearly not at home still on the road in Denver it’s treating us very well we’ll be home before you know it for that 300 P p.m. eastern time Wednesday live chat normal time normal place all that fun stuff we will see you there hopefully the audio is good enough for us to get through this we’ve got the uh you know all the travel stuff in place but let’s not waste any more time let’s focus on Detroit and jump right into this Detroit Golf Club this is from the course key stats on my website ricken good.com everything you see from here on out will be from my website and there’s going to be a lot of things that you hear about Detroit golf club and they’re probably all very true it’s it’s the flattest course on the PGA tour schedule that’s by shotlink that is not my opinion it is also a golf course that allows you to bomb and gouge if you look at past winners there or guys that have had success that’s the way to do it you can hit it um basically anywhere you want without much penalty the fairways uh especially this time around seem to be a little bit softer which are going to hold some of those shots um there’s not very penal rough and then you’re going to end up hitting a lot of wedges in and see how many birdies that you can make scoring conditions are usually Prime for birdies Eagles or that devious little 313 challenge that no one has I I don’t think anybody has ever accomplished and I’m not sure they ever will I think it’s uh it’s like Eagle Ace birdie on three consecutive holes on specific holes it’s it’s fairly insane but anyway um you look at the scoring averages from from last year there are just a lot of ways that these golfers are going to pick it apart if you look at the uh correlation model here there’s not really a lot that jumps off at you from the driving accuracy driving distance the The Strokes gain metrics it does ask for the best player Strokes gain total highly correlated to success at this event but if you look at some of the secondary statistics it will begin to tell a little bit of a of a story and there’s a reason that these are not great primary stats but you add up a couple of them and you see um that the Story begins to tell itself so some of the more highly correlated stats of success approaches from 150 to 175 in the rough approaches from 250 to 275 in the rough on their own those are pretty bad stats pretty noisy stats um then you get putting from 9 ft again pretty noisy pretty bad uh total putting and total birdies so those are the top five secondary stats so while they’re individually not very good you do get stats that say Okay um hit it anywhere you want off the te because there’s a strong correlation to approaches that are coming from the rough in general and then total putting uh putting from 9 ft which is a great range where where golfers on the PGA tour have a lot of their birdie putts from and then total birdies that says this is going to be a scoring Fest and then uh as you continue to go down that list scrambling from 10 to 20 yards that’s likely on the on the par fives Greens in regulation par three scoring average putting from five feet consecutive greens and regulation we are talking about scoring metrics here that is what we’re talking about so if you take all of that information and you begin to Overlay it over the last 36 rounds for every golfer in this field you can look at the adjusted fit for these players and Taylor pendrith to probably no one’s surprise has one of the best adjusted course fits for Detroit Golf Club I think I said this for Cam Davis a couple of years ago he ended up winning the golf tournament so I’ve generally retired this phrase but if I could create a golf course for Taylor pendrith it would look a lot like Detroit golf club right that and the the stats bear it out the regression model Bears it out again I have no opinion in this regression this is all these are just number I have zero opinion in this um and then I take the stats that everybody has and multiply this is just math andlor pendrith comes out on top sh Kim is number two he does it in a little bit a different way he gets a lot of bumps on his putting um from those ranges he he gets actually knocked on uh all the tto green metrics except or excuse me all the tto green metrics but they’re they’re small knocks for him Robert McIntyre Alex norren and Maverick mcney round out the top five they’re probably golfers that that we’re going to talk about um quite a bit here so we’ll we’ll we won’t need to spend too much time on on those guys um there is something interesting that is going on with the salaries for this week so we have Tom Kim leading the the quartet of golfers above $10,000 it’s Tom Kim cam Young minwu Lee and Alex norin and Tom Kim is $1,000 so we’ve been living in a world with signature event and major championships and Scotty Sheffer where we’ve been getting someone who is 125 128 $113,000 um frequently week in and week out to there there is a little bit of um a reprieve here at $111,000 for Tom Kim being the most expensive golfer and we’ve got to figure out if what we’ve seen from Tom Kim over the course of the last couple of weeks is is fool’s gold or if it is actual gold right and we’ve got those similar questions about cam young so let’s let’s start there with Tom Kim um obviously losing in a playoff to Scotty Sheffer is both bad and both very good if you look at his stat profile from last week and actually we can do this let’s go to the Holy Grail let’s go to 2024 and do the tournament which was The Travelers and we will just sort this by most Strokes gain so we should get Tom Kim and Scotty Sheffer tied at the top and we do look at how similar these guys played last week Scotty Sheffer gained .97 Strokes per round off the T Tom Kim was .92 Scotty was 1.09 on approach Tom Kim was a little bit better 1.3 2 on approach around the green they were nearly identical 43 and 36 putting 64 and 0.52 I mean they were nearly identical players last week entirety throughout the bag in terms of all four of The Strokes gain metrics through regulation and then of course uh Scotty gets him in a playoff after Tom Kim hits hits kind of a weak approach into the 18th green there to that to that front right uh pin location but that’s a really good sign for Tom Kim and it’s it speaks about um sustain ability right if you put up a stat line any week that looks like Scotty shefflers you’re doing very very well and this goes back to uh I would say the Canadian open he has now gained a lot of Strokes on Approach at least four and a half three times in his last four starts he’s driving it well I think he’s a tad longer than I remember what we’ve seen from previous years but he’s finding the Fairway a lot he will um you know there’s there’s it’s it’s not The Travelers where it’s 7,000 yards it’s it’s not like you’re going to have like a mirfield village or something where it’s where it’s very penal um if you miss the Fairway but you know I I expect he’s going to be giving himself a lot of opportunities and then uh you look at the putting metrics which have started to turn around so I’m I’m pretty uh smitten here with Tom Kim I’m I’m okay with this his his history at the rocket mortgage is a little bit of a mixed bag he missed the cut here last year that was I believe during a time where he wasn’t playing particularly well in 2022 he finished seventh gained a ton of Strokes on approach so this is certainly a place that can catch his eye uh the the the decision you’re probably going to have to make at the top of the board a lot is do you want to play Tom Kim do you want to play cam young I should probably point out and I don’t think it matters he’s like a an infant he’s 22 years old and seems to have a ton of energy but Tom Kim has played let’s see here one two three four five 6 78 this will be nine weeks in a row it’s a lot o is on a similar a similar uh schedule and it’s again it didn’t hurt him in start eight it didn’t hurt him in start seven didn’t hurt him in start five you know what I mean so I’m not too worried about that um just something that I thought was was worth pointing out here’s cam young and you know he does this thing where he goes out he plays incredibly well including shooting a 59 at The Travelers Championship he has a new um putter in the bag so it’s just a a different model of I believe the same putter it’s it’s kind of blacked out they do not have uh I believe the alignment on top of it so there is a little bit of a change there he putts to a zero last week with it loses three Strokes in round number one gains 2.2 in round number three and then basically even the other two rounds I’m not ready to deare Camy young back just yet though this is uh probably a much better setup for cam young at Detroit Golf Club than it is for Tom Kim at Detroit Golf Club yeah this was one of the many runner-up finishes that cam young had in 2022 that was his rookie year I’m um I’m assuming and I could be wrong that cam young because he is cheaper because he does not have the pace of play issues because he shot at 59 last week because he had a runnerup finishing his only start is going to be more popular than Tom Kim and if that is uh a a tangible like a significant amount I would have no problem spending the extra $300 and going to Tom Kim minwu Lee is next and I was a little bit surprised admittedly to see that he was the third most expensive golfer if you wanted to stick norin here batia here even Taylor pendrith here I would have been okay with that uh it’s not a knock against minwu it’s just that his results have been good not great uh I think that this is an okay fit for him we are starting to see better play since his Mis cut the V bar he has essentially five consecutive top 25 finishes though all of them are 21st or worse so five consecutive finish is 21st to 26 he drives it awesome which if you look at his you know his Club head speed and his distance from Ed of farway considering the how far he hits it and how inaccurately he hits it this is a really good spot for him one of the concerns that we had earlier in the year and I still do have this concern is is what is he going to do on the second shot right you know there were times there’s been plenty of times this year he’s lost Strokes on approach he started to write the ship a little bit he gave some back nearly four at Pinehurst I don’t I’m not going to kill anybody for that so he gives gives back um four of them at Pinehurst but he was starting to get closer to zero this is a a game of opportunity you know how many opportunities are you going to give yourself this week from those makeable ranges unfortunately minwu doesn’t give himself a ton of opportunities um and and when he does he he is better than his peers from farther out 175 to 200 200 to 225 because it goes back to that club speed it goes back to that really great long game the the shorter we get the worse we get for minwu so those are all concerns so I’m still basically feeling uh Tom Kim as the as the best option here if you want to go to cam young that would be fine a little bit of worry about minwoo and then the guys below that I I don’t mind I don’t think this is a great spot for Alex noren but this is certainly um a summer of of great Play Misses the cut at the US Open he also missed the cut at the Canadian open so maybe he’s cooling off a bit but he can win putting contest I mean he is one of the best Putters that we have out here he does not miss a lot of Fairways that’s not going to be super beneficial here but it will keep him certainly in his own in his own Comfort level um as I kind of look over his metrics and look over what I think is going to be important this week I will admit I don’t I don’t get super excited um the the caveat or the the counter to my lack of excitement on Alex noren’s course fit is that of course history is quite good you know the T9 here last year the T4 in 2021 those were his last two trips he did miss the cut here in 2020 but we’re now what four years from that I I’m not super worried about especially because we’re in the midst of probably the best run of his of his career at least in a long time if you look at the last 36 rounds for everybody in this field Alex noren technically has the best uh trending number so the way that this tool works and I love this tool is it it applies everybody’s 100 round Baseline what type of golfer are you and then it looks at how you’re playing over the last X number of rounds I have it set to 36 you could do 24 or 12 or anything like that um so you take the Baseline and you add or subtract what the golfer is doing right now and you get this Strokes gain Trend number Alex noren’s Baseline is is already good he adds about a half a stroke per round uh to his Baseline in the last 36 and all of that coming from TAA green which is a good sign so it’s it’s norin it’s mcne it’s pendri it’s D Thompson and OE that I would say are the hottest golfers in the field and then if you want to look at that and also uh throw in the fact that hey how are they putting how are the you know is their regression coming is there the ability to to snap back you’ll see that Alex noren is not uh he’s not upper left uh as in he is in the upper left quadrant which is the optimal quadrant that you want to be in but he I mean there’s probably a dozen or two dozen golfers in that quadrant that are probably in better spots than him but he and McNeely of those guys that I talked about Davis Thompson even are all in that upper leftand quadrant which means they are not even uh putting to their 100 round Baseline they’re not even putting to uh the part of their game that if that comes back there is more juice to squeeze out of it so that is better than someone like Taylor pendrith who’s very much in the SEC he’s in the second best quadrant he’s in the positive quadrant but there is probably some putter regression coming for Taylor pendra that that’s the way to read that pendra has been a half stroke per round over his 100 round Baseline um with the flat stick alone which which is concerning it it is concerning so that 9k range as we get down there you’ll see this is where things start to get really interesting we’ve got OE on a similar schedule as um as as Tom Kim what we talked about with oay last week I still think does hold Court here this week I was I had a lot of exposure to ache he didn’t play particularly well on Sunday but hey he finishes T5 that’s I would have signed up for that result at the beginning of the week and he did what we were hoping for which is drive it really well uh hit your wedges close pile up opportunities is a very good wedge player he has turned into a a good enough putter especially with that uh the the Brom I believe he’s using the broomstick and the jailbird might not be the jailbird but he’s like going for all the cheat codes and now we’ve got this this trend line t60 at the Canadian open t22 at mfield Village t16 at the US Open uh T5 at The Travelers is is this does this culminate with a victory or does it culminate with a top five finish I still think this is a really good spot form we are not going anywhere and we’re not going anywhere especially because uh pendrith is likely to be your most popular golfer in this 9k range right people know that Detroit golf club is one of the best spots to get Taylor pendrith runner-up finish and T14 in his two trips everybody knows he is distance not accuracy he is wedges he is putting he is all of that I am cautiously optimistic here I I I believe we’re going to get a big ownership number and I believe that we are due for pendrith putting regression so I you know if if if pendrith is a for most people a 9 and a half out of 10 he’s probably a seven and a half out of 10 for me I I still find him to be a very positive play but I am worried about some of the ancillary stuff where he comes in with 25% ownership and gets and and and wipes everybody at some point I’m going to need to see a lot more out of our defending Champion Ricky Fowler uh he did play well for the first time in a while at Travelers but we are seeing a golfer who is just not this I mean basically since he won this event last year right he was playing so well it it finishes with a victory at the rocket mortgage last year and he has not been remotely the same since I’m going to need to see a little bit more I do not believe that this is a great spot for will zot torus i’ I’ve been buying um a little bit of of will the last handful of weeks it has not worked out we have seen we’ve seen spurts of it rounds W The Travelers Championship was awesome he lost Strokes every day coming in the approach play continues to struggle the putter is not there this is a a birdie F I mean I just you know since he missed the cut at the zerk or even since the Masters the version of of Wills alour that we’ve seen does not set up well for this golf course and then Stephen jger is probably quietly the the the great contrarian option in this range you know if we’re going to see a lot of O if we’re going to see a lot of Taylor pendri uh here’s here’s Stephen joerger whose history at this event is better than pendrith ninth last year fifth the year before that the concern that we have coming into this is the putter has gone very very cold uh since the summer of last year he was a very good only losing a handful of times through the rest of the year now he is only gaining a handful of times actually lost Strokes putting in seven of his last eight if he could snap back to anything close to his 100 round Baseline I bet you he’s probably one of these very let’s see what we have here if I can find yeah here’s step Jagger in that optimal uh quadrant no surprise there because his 100 round Baseline with the putter is so good as we enter the AK range I’ve got to point out the The Listener League The Run good listener league for this week on Splash is already a third full uh it’s probably because it’s a $20 entry and it’s tiers and it is guaranteed fully guaranteed $5,400 in the prize pool as as long as we keep filling it which we’ve been doing so and get in now it’s already a third perc a third of the way full and I haven’t even posted this video yet as long as we keep filling it they keep guaranteeing it they keep raising it they’re they’re doing a great job um we our relationship with Splash is really good I I I love all the advancements they’re making spoiler alert they are starting to release some of the NFL stuff and there are some NFL golf kind of crossovers where there’ll be almost like oneandone style NFL contests but or excuse me like yeah one of done style NFL contest where maybe you pick a quarterback each week to do I don’t know passing yards or fantasy something like that so some really good crossovers that are coming um links in the description go get signed up uh go deposit and get get in there because I’ve got some cool stuff coming with those guys as well the 8K range so I’m just gonna start with my favorite which is Davis Thompson if you’ve been if you’ve been following this Channel at all over the past three months I’m I’m now ready for this that the Davis Thompson train rolls on he’s one of the best tto green players that we have in this field he showed out at Myrtle Beach Classic he finished T2 there he finished T9 the US Open he’s been playing well on on difficult golf courses easy golf courses and I’ve I’ve I’m on the record I’m sure at some point saying that I think Davis Thompson is going to win something this summer and and it is probably it’s most likely to be an event like this rocket mortgage the 3M I don’t know if he’s going to play barbasol or Barra or whatever else we’ve got coming up still I don’t know if he’s going to play those or if he’s going to get get himself into the uh Open Championship if he’s not already finished t24 here last year I I this this is the type of event and the type of profile that screams Davis Thompson is trending in the right in the right direction wouldn’t mind Aaron Ry I’m not going to spend too much I actually wouldn’t mind Aaron Ry or Maverick mcne those are both kind of my guys both have been playing well uh Ry finished ninth year no problem you know again if you’ve been following along this is this is the type of place that you that you roll those guys out Robert McIntyre I do find interesting we are starting to see a little bit of a maturation here from Robert McIntyre ever since let’s call it the Zurich right finishes p8 there gets a 13th at Myrtle Beach plays well at the PGA Championship snaps through and finds victory at the Canadian open he did that in a very unsustainable way he gained eight Strokes putting but he is going to gain two three four five Strokes putting every single week which is great for this week he drives it well not straight he’s playing with confidence we we need a couple of things to go right for Robert McIntyre but this is a decent spot to find that the two that I like um Ryan Fox would be be Ryan Fox is your your skill set option right if you think that Taylor pendrith is a pretty good option you should probably think that Ryan Fox is as well hits it a mile can play these wedge fests pretty well has a great Potter he is a cheaper Taylor pendrith that’s that’s what you are looking for out of Ryan Fox and then there is Michael thorbjornson who made his professional debut last week were you impressed I think you should be uh he hit it better than what he should so so he lost 5.8 Strokes ball striking last week 5.2 of that loss came on Sunday things unraveled a bit on Sunday that’s going to happen we got three pretty darn good rounds out of Michael thorbjorn and we are now going to see how quickly he adjusts to PGA Tour life the 7K range has some really talented guys that are not playing well you could go on pure talent pretty easily in this range that’s mostly Taylor Moore and Cam Davis is who I’m referring to I know how bad the stat profile is on Taylor Moore trust me you don’t you don’t have to tell me he’s lost 19 Strokes if not more from T Green in his in his last four starts it’s been miserable he’s missed three Cuts he finished nearly dead Last of The Travelers Championship he has a great record at the rocket mortgage uh Sixth and a T4 in the last two years I love his game not currently obviously but I do love his game maybe this is a place that fits the eye and snaps him out of this little bit of a funk it might be a biges you don’t have to do that the other one is Cam Davis who’s been obviously playing better because it’s difficult to be playing worse than than Taylor Moore right now and his history around uh the rocket mortgages is nearly unmatched right the win in 2021 14th in 2022 17th in 2023 he’ll probably be popular maybe some of the recent form does keep people off of him he lost seven strokes ball striking at at Traveler so again the that’s talent lacking the form I also want to point out Luke Clanton here I believe and do not quote me on this I believe he’s an amateur I only have one tournament on him in the database and it is the US Open from two weeks ago where he gained 4.2 off the te another stroke and a half on approach and another 1.7 with the putter at Pinehurst he finished t-41 he lost 4.4 around the green guess what if you lose 4.4 around the green at Detroit Golf Club first off figure your figure your life out second of all second of all you were not remotely going to contend this week anyway but if he can hit it like this ball strike it like this putt like this you know you know much weaker field I’m quite interested I’m also still trying to catch the The Good Sam Stevens weeks so he’s been kind of bouncing around between the corn fairy tour a little bit and some of these PGA Tour events so he finished T10 at Myrtle Beach he missed the cut at the Charles Schwab he finished 14th at the Canadian open and then uh last week or was that two weeks ago in witch all he finished runner up on the corn fairy tour so that’s his last four it’s three top 14 finishes in his last four across both tours and a variety of of different field strengths confident guy playing well I’m not I’m not worried about he has played plenty of PGA Tour events this would be a really good one to get in on him the six and the 5K range does does fall off quite a bit I’m not sure how much you have to get down here considering Tom Kim is only $1,000 but I think there are a couple of of interesting little nuggets here firstly Andrew Novak who I love who has missed the cut here in each of the last two years finished 14 14th at the Canadian open that’s the last time we saw him is it how is he not getting more starts I I don’t know the answer to that Chandler Phillips has back-to-back top 12 finishes in his last two Charles Schwab and the Canadian open he’s not played this event he has $6,700 Chris gdup has not been good since his win at the Myrtle Beach this would be a skill set play I’m not ready to go there I would prefer a skill set play on Alejandro tosti who finished 17th at Charles Schwab for his size stature and all that stuff he bombs it and makes a lot of birdies uh along the way MC Meisner $6,400 he’s his only bad finish is missing the cut at the US Open which I’m not going to beat up anybody for fifth at Charles Schwab 13th at Myrtle Beach he made the cut at the Canadian open uh he gains across the board right can you find anybody actually I can just tell you anybody in the 6K range who in the last 36 rounds has gained in all four strokes gain categories well first off Mac is the the best Strokes gain total and he’s gaining throughout the bag but is there anybody else who has green in all four categories doesn’t look like it I’m scrolling through and I I’m just doing the eye test I don’t really see it here so I’m GNA say no I’m going to say it’s it’s it’s it’s MC Meisner and and that is it the other guys who are playing well in Strokes game total are mty Schmid though that is a that’s about to fall off the cliff right because 36 rounds includes um not only 10 of his it’s only 10 Rounds where but he’s missed five straight cuts he has really good stuff before that he has some decent stuff after that but this number is about to fall off a cliff if you’re if you’re MADD Schmid the 5K range as you can imagine in this field really falls off a cliff Patrick fishburn’s probably the most interesting he’s been playing both the the PGA Tour and the corn faery tour he’s got four top 25s in his last six starts I don’t even mind Stewart sink is still just long enough on the PGA tour I believe he’s been beating up the old guys on the uh on the champions tour T3 T9 and then he finished 27th at the Canadian open and and this is because of the way he can still hit it off the te one of the better spots for him though I I lack a lot of excitement there the uh we’ve got the I think he’s 15 years old miles Russell right here he’s $5,100 he finished T20 in a corn fairy Tour event he got another start missed the cut uh those are his only two starts that I have on him I believe he he must have just missed he was in a playoff I believe for a US Open spot and I don’t think he got in the other one that so if you want if you want a real flyer Willie Mack Willie Mack thei third is $5,000 he got in this field by winning the John shippen which is an apga event that was held a couple days ago last week I think and also got into the US Open he’s got some corn fairy tour experience he’s playing well right now he’s only $5,000 you’ll be the only person on them let’s see what the model says custom model rickun good.com let’s just do a couple of items we need to do our weighted Strokes gained Baseline so we’re going to do um 10 on weighted Strokes gained just because we’ve got Guys across different tours here then we are going to do uh we’re going to do like a lot of scoring stuff so we’re going to do driving distance 15 we’re going to do birdies are better for 15 uh that’s birdies or better uh birdies or better gained we are going to do opportunities uh gained and opportunities plus gained for eight each these are some good appro Ro metrics we are we’ll do course history pretty sticky here we’ll do 10 there we are going to do bonus putting which I absolutely love we’ll put 15 on bonus putting and then we are going to put our final 19 on easy courses just go fill it up our number one golfer yep Taylor pendrith uh sorry I I didn’t mean to question that Ben Griffin is the one that I had question Ben Griffin is two Davis Thompson three cam young young 4 OE 5 stevenh Jagger sleepy little sleeper there six Tom Kim 7 minwoo Taylor Moore Keith Mitchell are the top 10 let’s quickly look at Ben Griffin what have you been up to Ben runner up finish at the Canadian open it’s a little bit of feast of famine that’s what’s going on here so his good finishes are are quite good top 16s good metrics his bad finishes are pretty bad he withdrew from the PGA Championship he missed the cut at the Charles Schwab he missed the cut at the memorial he he finished nearly dead Last of The Travelers those are all significantly more difficult Fields than this so when he goes well he goes really well mcneel’s 13th just kind of pointing out some notables here Alex norin is 14th interesting okay all right well we’ve got work to do I will see you all on Wednesday 3 p p.m. eastern time go everything you need is in the link to description sign up for Splash sign up for rickun good.com I love it I think you’ll love it too we are rocking and rolling let’s go see you in Detroit [Music]