2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | 2024 Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
2:21 Course Flyover/Notes
7:24 Course Stats
11:13 Rocket Mortgage Classic History
16:08 DET GC SG HISTORY
20:48 Stat Model/Field

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ENT of may experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code Mayo Underdog fantasy right now get you a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks rocket mortgage classic from Detroit Golf and Country Club an amalgamation of the two courses of the Donald Ross designs on the property a field of 156 players top 65 and ties will make the cut in full disclosure you should smash the like to this episode but honestly I’m away right now so I’m filming the show and recording it a week in advance so I don’t actually have the official field in front of me so when I go through the research on fantasy National we’ll have to make some educated guesses and use the season long planner that we have to find out the bigger names that have already committed to the rocket mortgage obviously Ricky the defending champion and sponsored by rocket mortgage is going to be playing but we’ll find out who some of the other ones who had previously committed are playing already but we can almost expect that it’s the C and D tier of the PGA Tour thinking about you had the Canadian open which a lot of the top European stars played in four weeks ago then an elevated signature event Memorial which everyone played in the US Open which everyone played in The Travelers which are probably watching right now that everyone has played in so I think before the guys go overseas to Scotland in the Open Championship there might be a bit of a twoe pause on a lot of people uh for Detroit and the John Deere classic next week so shout out to Tambo who was at the rocket mortgage Classic this week playing for the Fantasy Golf World Championships it’s going to be a lot of fun I’ll be back tomorrow live in studio I think with Jeff Feinberg or it’ll be two days from now with Jeff Feinberg on Tuesday in studio to go over all of the bets for the rocket mortgage and all of that fun stuff that goes along with it custies I think are coming this week too or they’re already out see this is how well I plan in advance it all depends on when I get back but I wanted to make sure that I had a quick preview show for everyone just to get them ready I know that people rely on this show to learn a little bit about the course then dig into what they want to do and try to hit those early lines depending on if we can find some sleepers in this field so let’s jump over to the course right now Detroit golf and country club in guess it Detroit Michigan as I pointed out before the course at Detroit golf club is an amalgamation of both the South and North course there’s been some rerouting for the tournament including a-hole from the south course the South’s first hole will function as the tournament’s third hole be played from the north course’s first te box a lot like Oakdale for the Canadian open at Jeff’s course a while ago because there’s 27 holes on that property and they just mashed it into 18 meanwhile the regular eighth and Ninth holes will be number one and two for the tournament at the South core so just the the more you know that really makes that much of a difference to what we’re doing in trying to play it out it’s going to be the same routing as it’s been every year this tournament has been an existence and it first started in 2019 more on that in a second because that was a cluster exploitive let’s say for all of you people who really hate when I swear it’s weird you know this is a show that’s rated R rated R for real good but also uh exploitive commentary from time to time uh it’s most generous courses on the PGA tour the T the field has hit over 50% of its drives over 300 yards at Detroit golf club we finding the Short Grass at over a 65% clip unsurprisingly this is where Bryson tested out the strategy that resulted in him hoisting the cleverly named US Open trophy later on in 2020 Bryson became the first PGA Tour winner ever to lead the field in Strokes gained off the te 6.7 that year and strokes game putting 7.8 during the shotlink era and yes Bryson also LED in driving distance that year at 351 it’s unclear whether or not that strategy would hold up or if it was just like a Bryson type of thing but it seems to be more of just a Bryson type of thing although that is one strategy that you can get by in the two years since driving has proved to play a major role in success at the top that and putting but no one has quite done it to such an exaggerated level uh than Bryson did that year and despite being 7370 yards in total Detroit golf club is actually much shorter than that I talk about Riviera every single year about having hidden distance because of the elevation changes and a lot of the yardages saved on one of the power fours in a really short power five but Detroit golf club is kind of the opposite there are four power fours measuring between 450 and 500 yard but since the average driving distance is over 300 yard those holes don’t really play long at all add on three of the power fours which can’t protect themselves from Eagles and have an average approach distribution that resembles the travelers from this week of course that came in at just over 6800 yard the majority of approaches are going to be coming from 175 yards and in that is scoring time hence why the winning score has been well into the minus 20s almost every single SE every single year of this course’s existence easier courses allow more of the field to challenge for a win because you can ride a hot putter there’s a reason that the US Open leader board is generally The Who’s Who of the elite names well you have the Byron Nelson where anyone can where I guess unless you’re KH Le who won it twice but you just have random dudes who end up winning there so using fantasy Nationals easy relative to par scoring over the past 24 rounds you will find more on that a little bit later on and there’s going to be plenty of Birdie streaks at this course as well but not not many of them are going to bridge either of the nine holes 9 and 11 or tough par 3s uh I mentioned both above like carrying a bird or better rate of Under 12 122% uh as I kind of point out the average distance on the par 3s this week is 192 yards the two longest par 3es coming that three hole stretch both are among the four toughest holes on the course and carry a bogey or Worse rate of over 177% like that’s like the one challenge that this course is going to present number 11 the power three 233 yards is the most difficult on the course the second most difficult is actually the closing hole number 18 and it only plays 455 yards but has a bogier worse rate of over 20% on that one yeah number 11 has a bogey or Worse rate of 23% it’s pretty high for a course where you’re going to see a winner of minus 24 minus 26 or something ludicrous like that Cam Davis won in 2021 atus 18 that was like the difficult year and he ended up chipping in holding out a bunker shot on 17 in order to clear that win when it looked like he was absolutely dead to wrs I pointed out 7370 yards par 72 bent with POA mixed in similar to what we see at TPC River Highlands this week’s 87 bunkers with one hole that has water in play the power fours the average distance is 429 yards it’s a variety of power four the course has five of them checking in under 400 yards and four that measure over 450 yards the power fives and we’ll take a look over at Fantasy National right now and you can see the power five is like you got to beat these guys up and that’s where the distance really comes into play in the driving you know the 635 you don’t see a whole bunch of eagles on that but people still birdie at a 32% clip bogey percentage of around 7% number 17 the par five is the easiest hole on the course Eagle rate of 2.5% birdie rate 50% number 14 as a part of the 313 challenge I think I think that’s the one that’s the 313 challenge I think it’s 14 15 and 16 let me see how the routing works for this yeah that’s 133 14 no yeah anyway there’s the 313 area code where if you go three and then yeah it’s three Eagle hole in one Birdie on 16 you win like a million bucks or something like that for charity either way I don’t think anyone’s ever done it so that’s that’s tough scene Eagle hole and one back toback holes is something you’re not going to find too often but number 14 has a 2% Eagle rate number seven has a 2.5% Eagle rate all the birdier better rates are 40% or higher on the three or the easier par five so got to find the guys that are going to beat them up let’s take a look back and actually no let’s kind of take a look at you see putting approach driving is a little bit down to the top 10 finishers but gets higher the more that you work yourself up on the leaderboard and when you take a look at the winners you’ll see the driving has meant a lot along with putting you you can’t have like bad approach play it just it doesn’t need to be out of this world good as it is at some other places and almost identical to what we saw at The Travelers you have some of the longer obviously the power fivs are going to have 200 plus plus proximity distance and the those longer par 3es those are going to count as 200 plus approach shots on not those holes it’s just wedges everywhere can you hit some awesome wedges can you make some putts that’s what we’re going to have to find out this week uh the cut line a year ago was -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 before that in the 5 years of this tournament’s existence over 65% driving accuracy 72% greens and regulation percentage and I pointed this out on the traveler show and I’ve mentioned it before uh the two weeks before of trying to hit those Underdog props on either Fairways hit or even greens and regulation highers this time around so 72% on 18 holes is going to be that’s not right 72 * 18 is around 13 so 13 is going to be the average over under for greens and regulation hit at Detroit Golf Club amongst the field so the best to always attack these Underdog props or the moment they they open it’s usually right around the tea times which is Tuesday afternoon and if you see the numbers come in around 13 if you find some 12 and a halfs or hell even 13 and a halfs on players that generally are good with their irons and hit a lot of greens and regulation it’s not going to be the strongest field so you’re probably not going to have a bevy of options because there’s so few big names expected to be at this tournament but anything 13 or over or or or under sorry or even 13 and a half or under play the high highers on those uh and if the driving accuracy ones come in lower too who cares just go the higher on those if it’s nine8 and a half or nine go higher greens and regulation go higher and if they’re overweighted then you can kind of go the other way as well and play the unders on those but that’s what I would be looking at to try to take advantage of the underdog props this week code Mayo at Underdog fantasy will get you that deposit bonus of 200 bucks 250 bucks if you haven’t seen that yet scrambling percentage higher than usual three putt about average average average driving distance 296 but amongst guys that makes the cut it’s over 300 yards so very easy course can your guys score enough that’s what we’re going to be looking at take a look at last year’s leaderboard the 2023 rocket mortgage classic was a three-way playoff Ricky Fowler had been building towards this all season we hit the outright on him he wins in the playoff from the mud against Adam hadwin and Colin morawa Taylor Moore and the glove were just outside of the playoff along with custy Pete Peter Quest shank was there as well uh interesting to see that guys had played well at what the hell tournament was it valpar earlier that year hadwin has won the valpar Taylor Moore has won the valpar Adam shank uh lost to Taylor Moore two years ago at the Valspar so interesting of that note uh to kind of take a look at some of these guys but that’s how they did it in terms of the scorecard if we take a look at The Strokes game to figure out how guys got it done only Chris Kirk the only guy he and Troy Merritt inside the top 20 that lost Strokes putting and look at the top of this leaderboard 4.5 9.8 for hadwin 3.4 for morawa 9.9 for Taylor Moore 5.4 for Lucas Clover that was the beginning of his Resurgence which would lead to two wins later on in the season 3.7 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 5 3.8 6.2 if noren plays in this then it might be actually a noren week to go to he’s had some success at this tournament over the years but it’s kind of funny to to look at how these guys all do like if you’re not making your putts you’re absolutely screwed so last year I had one lost a ton off the tea but gained a ton on approach and made up the rest with putting last year that like bombing gouge was a little bit less effective than it had been in other years and was more approach leaning this year so maybe it depends on the quality of player in the field honestly if that’s a way that we’re going to try to locate this so let’s go back to 2022 feno 1×5 over kley pendrith and cam young he was tied for the lead after Thursday after shooting a 64 uh he had four rounds of 67 or better so he was five under every day or better three of the top four off the te you can see so this was a bomb and gouge type year even though the approach had played well too but 5.8 3.1 3.5 5.3 off the T gets it done Windam Clark had five he came inside the top 10 as well coming T8 and losing Strokes on approach for that week but everyone gained in putting inside the top 10 only Windam Clark didn’t gain on approach only JJ spawn didn’t game off the te so you’re going to need somewhat of an overall balance game so this is the second time that we’ve seen Steven Jagger pop up I believe Tom Kim is playing in the tournament this week so another interesting guy to look at for the rocket mortgage we’ll take a look at some of the bigger names that I’ve committed here in a second on there’s probably three of them uh using the tool on fantasy National to figure that out but again we just kind of keep going back over time we see the same things of players who have done well and how that they have done it Cam Davis uh ran down poor I had I had a Neeman and kraak ticket this year kraak ended up I think doubling the last to really fall out but dude couldn’t make the putt Jason kokra he and Keegan Bradley were the only two players inside the top 20 who lost Strokes putting this just how it’s going to go uh Neeman gained a ton off the te Cam Davis didn’t but he chipped in a bunch and he made a ton of pts you see Troy Merritt made a ton of pots norin so there’s another one inside the top five for Alex noren so we’ve seen him pop up a few times here Chris Kirk is another one we’ve seen pop up a few times here and granted they should they’ve been some of the better players in this field but this year it was mainly like short game and just overall balance but you see 2.7 off the te 3.2 3.2 3.4 for some of the bigger hitters that’s how they were able to get it done and this was the middle of hammer and Hank leota’s run he had like four awesome tournaments in a row and that he was never heard from again this was the year I was talking about though 2019 Nate Lashley won this year he was the wire to wire winner he was the first round leader with the 63 and he ended up winning by six over doc Redmond uh Rory sabatini West roach wasn’t a great year for this tourament the inaugural event but the funny part was Nate Lashley was not included in the first round leader market and was not included on all of the sites in terms of outright betting odds because he was a Monday qualifier for this event he wasn’t in the draftking system that week that week couldn’t take him on DraftKings which is absolutely nuts to think about just very funny to think about it in those terms that you had this guy he wasn’t involved in any of the winning lineups so and it was funny because he won by six that it was just everyone else in the tourament JJ spawns another one you see his name pop up a few times here I wonder if he’ll be playing this week that’s a that’s going to be the difficult part of the breakdown so I won’t get too big into it this week because I I don’t know exactly who is playing so we’ll go past 24 rounds just take a look at the SG history in terms of total the pat Mayo experience is sponsored by better help sometimes you need to get something off your chest Lord knows I do and one of the biggest things that that can cause is Big stressors in our life whether they’re big or they’re small bottling it all up can really start to affect us very negatively and therapy is a safe space to get things off your chest and figure out how to work through whatever’s weighing you down and it’s helpful for learning positive coping skills and how to set boundaries and really start to affect your life in a positive way and it might even be some stuff that you’re not even really thinking about that 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is averaging over two strokes total per round Marty do Justin low he’s probably most definitely playing in eight rounds uh 1.74 Strokes gain total per I mentioned Chris Kirk a little bit earlier he’s up there in 16 rounds has played this very well don’t think fow will commit hor there’s horel noren and hadwin and Merritt have all played it well I said Tom Kim is playing he’s in this field in his six rounds he’s doing quite well JJ spawn MJ Duffy Vince Norman Lucas Clover Callum Taran and JT Poston who we probably should see in this field Hayden Buck he’s there he loves to [ __ ] and he loves playing well at Detroit Golf Club how does Lee Hodges play here just Lee Hodges seems like a goober who would be in this tournament so he has six rounds nothing great we’ll see how he’s done it the rocket Mortgage in his career 44th and a miscut okay so not great Bob from Lee Hodges but you know he just been playing a little bit better coming in and that’s probably the way that you want to tackle this outside of some of the I’ll run the stat model here for it in a minute but I just want to take a look at the course history and see some of the guys who have played this course well year over-year we take a look at putting you know low Moore hadwin Juan MJ Duffy Nicholas lindheim MAV McNeely putts really well here no shock putw everywhere and if we kind of juxtapose that with Tia green who has done the best morawa probably not playing Callum Taran Aaron Ry Jagger Henley Taylor Moore coocher has done really well TD green here only two rounds but he missed the cut because he lost an average of Two Strokes putting per round nice work Matt Vince Norman Tia green great here Chuck Hoffman Tia green great here same as Ryan Palmer Troy Merritt Chris Kirk senson maybe svenson’s kind of a look here because he’ll likely be in this tournament lonto over a stroke T degree per round and a little bit of a loss on putting that’s kind of been hiso lately just the ball striking has been really good the putting has been atrocious for him yeah you can see it he’s only lost in the ball striking categories he’s only lost once in his past five starts that was off the tea at the Byron Nelson but the approach play has just been absolute fire but dude cannot putt to save his life right now so let’s try to scroll up to see if we can find out who’s actually going to be in this field if you use this tab at the top of fantasy Nationals the season long planner and you can find out some of the bigger names that have actually made commitments to a lot of these tournaments that we’re going to be looking at so we’ll sort by rocket mortgage right here and kind of take a scroll down the list a lot of guys have committed to John Deere from the bottom end and I would assume most of them are going to be playing because there’s no alt event for the traveler so it’s a week off for most people and frankly it’s a week off for most of the guys who didn’t qualify for the US Open anyway who will probably be playing in this tournament so none of these names are playing right now keep scrolling got to find some green checks on this list somewhere eventually Ricky Fowler will probably end up being the first guy so we keep scrolling there we go yeah there’s Ricky Fowler he has committed to the rocket Morgan rocket mortgage classic he’ll probably be one of the betting favorites at least inside the top five anyone else gez poor Detroit really getting squeezed on that Tom Kim there we are yeah so Tom Kim I can recall him committing to playing he’s just playing a lot of golf right now is I think he’s played each of the past five events including the US home if he ended up wding from this I wouldn’t be super stunn look he’s taking the week off at John Deere then Genesis and the Open Championship he’ll be going into anyone else for Detroit man oh there we are there’s someone Taylor Moore is playing okay and we just saw he had great s great success at this course over the years and that’s going to kind of be you know these guys in The Faded were guys that play play in this tournament last year so if they’re kind of on the bottom end then they’re probably going to end up playing straa played in it last year we probably won’t see him because he is so far up in the world rankings right now that he probably doesn’t need to play it will zot Torres has committed to playing in the rocket mortgage Classics so the the big four in the tournament this year are Ricky fower will zat torus Tom Kim and Taylor Moore yikes that might be the worst field that we get so far this year so let’s take a look at the model that had built out and we’ll leave it at that just you know I want to get you out of here have some good vibes for Detroit and tell you what you need to know do I have Detroit golf club no I got to go to manage models I thought I had turned it on before the show because you know I try to plan sometimes I do have it turned on was it not there and I just didn’t see it there it is at the top of course D for Detroit would be at the top so past 24 rounds overall stat model coming in and this includes all of the players in the field I will click off of Detroit I was like why Scotty Sheffer 134th cuz he’s never played this event he would be number one in this if that was the case so now we need to really scroll down to find some guys that might be playing in this field Keith Mitchell might be playing he’s fourth hogi and craft and Ry and might be playing they’re seven eight and N in the overall model if you want to see what it is I have it up right here Eagles gain 5% par five’s 5% I split those up par fours 350 to 400 10% opportunities gain 10% ball striking five approach 15 off the te 20% putting 8 and 7% from 5 to 10 10 to 15 short proximity five and five opportunities gain 10 and putting overall at five so we’ll keep going to see who does pretty well here down the list EVR may play he’s 17th Glover may play He Is 18th lantto is 19th overall here that’s not bad Damon is 22nd who else might be playing but collie is 29th straa is 30th Taylor Moore is playing he’s 32nd Adam shank is 34th the Eagles aren’t good the approach isn’t good but the proximity from 50 to 100 very good and he is putting really well right now so that’s good to see Ben Griffin most likely playing he’s 35th probably not going to see Bez Vegas maybe Kevin Roy is 42nd if he ends up playing Tom Kim is 43rd so when the field gets reset and we can only see the players obviously John ROM is isn’t going to be in this field that he’ll rate out really highly as well former winner Nate Lashley mck Hughes may play he’s 50th hubard Ben Martin low so low had the good course history and rates out pretty well Davis Thompson is probably going to play and probably be like 30 to1 61st Hadley is 63rd Brent the T Grant 65th Kevin you can’t putt so that’s a problem but the ball striking is great the off is awesome he’s 70th Bryce Garnett Andrew Novak Adam senson who I had mentioned a little bit before there’s Lee Hodges who else Shamus power at 84th pendrith if he ends up playing is 88th and this is all players by the way including guys from Liv who ended up getting mixed into it CH Chuck Hoffman is 87th we saw him pop up on that te to Green historically same as lindheim had very good Strokes gain total here he is 93rd if he ends up in the field KH Lee Ryan Moore Harris probably won’t play Maybe Luke list ends up playing he’s 101st been a real bad go for him coming in so that’s really what I’m looking at those are some of the names that pop out stats-wise if you’re just looking at straight off the tea of who can get it done here Brent Grant Keith Mitchell MJ Duffy who we saw with a lot of success Kevin Yu there he is again Damon e root McNeely this I mean this sets up to actually be a pretty decent McNeely course so like mcney could could ever win cuz we said and his approach play has been a lot better recently too that if he mcne is kind of the jam here if he ends up playing honestly we know how much he can gain off the tea we know how hot he can run his putter if he just kind of keeps his I mean his round the green is always good if his approach can just be in this like 2.9 1.6 category and we got a stew going for old MAV mcney so I would guess he’s not playing these elevated advents he’s probably not in the open oh no he is in the open because he got the spot at the Canadian open didn’t he yeah he got one of those qualifiers this is a part of the open qualification series as well so keep that in mind when you’re going through things Taylor Moore rates out really well here um in terms of off the tea Carl Juan very much the same way we saw he had a good Strokes gain total average per round at Detroit Country Club or Golf Club as well Daniel Burger I mean that actually makes a lot of sense he’s not in anything so why wouldn’t he show up to try to get into the open Davis Thompson again 32nd off the te Sam Stevens gim shank there’s shank again he’s 41st of all and this again all players not just players in the Detroit field I mean Michael Thompson I can’t remember the last time I heard of him so he’s probably not playing collie piery hubard could be a nice breakthrough spot for Mark hubard or Andrew Novak who was having a really good year things have gone South for him a little bit recently but did rebound quite nicely at the Canadian open that’ll be the last time he would have played before this you know we saw his top 10 streak streak earlier in the season against weaker Fields maybe he can pull off the same thing again that’s what I’ll leave you for Detroit Country Club now that you know what to look at now that it’s Sunday probably and you’re watching this or Monday morning all the field has been loaded in to Fantasy national.com but I’m not from the future so I didn’t have it when I recorded this a week ago but fantasy national.com Mayo will get you 20% off and you can go apply all of these things or anything that you want to your stat models and check out all of the course history everything like that get 20% off any of the memberships with fantasy national.com smash the like while you’re here tell some friends about the show I’ll be back tomorrow or Tuesday with the pick and Bets depending on how my flight comes back in from London I hope that you’re all having a great summer I know I am go enjoy yourself from time to time if you want to take a week off from the rocket mortgage I don’t blame you I kind of M too that will do it for me use code Mayo Underdog fantasy all right I’ll see you next time Batman experience experience