Travelers Championship + KLM Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 313 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf and Paul Williams @GolfBetting discuss their selections for this week’s Travelers Championship + KLM Open.
#travelerschampionship #tpcriverhighlands #riverhighlands #klmopen #scottiescheffler #rorymcllroy #brysondechambeau #pgatour #DFS #Golf #fantasygolf #PGA #OneAndDone #draftkings #underdogfantasy #fantasygolfpicks

Travelers Championship + KLM Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
01:30 Jack from Connecticut + DFS Grind Listener Reviews
03:05 McIlroy Woes, DeChambeau Wins
20:03 Travelers Championship Tips Start
42:18 KLM Open Tips Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s Travelers Championship Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/travelers-championship-tips/

Paul’s KLM Open Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/klm-open-tips-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/id1234973013
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Oo0Ivfnq4QQPch9SlRP5V Podbean: https://golfbettingsystem.podbean.com/
Podcast Addict: https://podcastaddict.com/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/2197395
Audioboom: https://audioboom.com/channels/4990651 Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/en/show/3353472

This podcast is for listeners of
18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit GambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

if you li betting on golf but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf bank system podcast it’s episode 313 this is our 2024 Travelers championship and KLM open tips podcast Barry oan rahan and Paul Williams join me St B to discuss our selection for this week’s PGA and DP World Tour action good morning Jens morning guys morning guys visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have in-depth betting previews for both events we’ve got Strokes gained rankings for The Travelers Championship form stats plus of course new and old predictor models for both The Travelers and the km all of that content is available completely free of charge There Is No paywall One X Barry is at a good talk golf Paul is at golf betting I am at banford golf subscribe to the Steve banford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is available along with my weekly golf betting show now you guys as listeners power of this podcast we have actually had some fresh reviews so thank you for those keep them coming though we do need your five star reviews on Apple when you write them leave your name and where you are in the review I did say last week if you wrote some review someone was going to get read out on this episode and here it is it’s entitled review five stars this is very short and sweet you guys are simply the best enough said and that is from Jack in Connecticut thanks for that Jack cheers Jack it’s perfect that’s the kind of review that someone might think that I’ve actually made up but it isn’t it is from Jack in Connecticut now they’re suspicious about you making up reviews Steve they weren’t until you said that now they are so okay in fact do you know what I’m going to read too there’s another one here great pod five stars tremendous insight and info keep it up that’s from DFS grind and he’s in the United States of America thanks for that DFS brilliant than thank you there you go two very short reviews keep them coming we do need them and also yeah apparently when you write these reviews and you give us five stars it really helps with the circulation the podcast so not only are you thanking us for the podcast and giving us feedback but you’re actually helping the podcast to be shared with more people which ultimately we would all want I expect um also five star re uh button on Spotify that’s even easy you just press it forget about it right I suppose we have to chat about Rory maroy y um there’s so much content out there at the moment about Rory maroy there’s there’s lots of experts out there saying exactly what Rory should have done what he shouldn’t have done you know the usual clickbait um clearly he’s withdrawn overnight from The Travelers Championship which was kind of expected when you’ve gone through the kind of scarring that he faced over the last three holes of the US Open last week um I’m going to come to you guys firstly Barry your thoughts on Rory what you witnessed and what you think the future might hold for him you know we we’re not a million miles away from the Open Championship and actually if you look at the way he’s playing Paul and I were just discussing this off Mike he playing some phenomenal golf I mean he was 335 yards off the te and he was third for driving accuracy at pinus which is a I mean that is that is roaring his pump yeah so your your minute comments on what you witnessed at the US Open I first of all I don’t think it should be all about Rory um my overriding thought about this tournament is you can’t look at it from just through one lens I think the these two things can be true at the same time and they are is that Bryson won the tournament but Rory also lost it I I think they both exist in our reflection on it um and it’s it’s really hard to process that because there’s very few tournaments of this magnitude that you have a situation like that where you’ve the both of these things happening and also with um such a so many years of supporting Rory as part of that like um thing to to to process and you know emotionally or to get over it or to get through it so it’s uh it’s it was an incredible event um like totally like overwhelmingly dramatic finish it was just everything it had everything you wanted it really was one of the best Majors I’ve ever watched uh for a variety of reasons that drama being one them but um it just it just sucks for Rory but Bryson finished it off in an amazing way like I there’s not much more you can ask for it’s really it’s really hard to to talk and process so I won’t waffle like I already have yeah what’s what what’s what’s your perspective on it I’m I’m far too close to the the bone um well the the main the two main gists of what you’re going to get here you’re going to basically one get Rory being called a choker and number two people saying that Harry diamond on the bag is costing him Mage championships so what are your views on those two things I’m boiling it all down on the comments I’m reading and seeing okay okay uh when it comes to Harry I like nobody knows that answer but Rory um my thoughts on it are did har is Harry the reason that Rory missed those two puts those are the ones were’re going to look at with a microscope those two puts there’s a whole bunch of other things that happened that Harry may have had an impact on that led to those puts being uh a thing or or those puts actually being situations that they might not have happened but my thoughts are Harry is the one that’s on the B that gets Rory into those positions to win these tournaments and has done for many years the the last ingredient has to be the player like there’s just some shots that Rory hasn’t hit or has missed over the last number of years and that’s the clubs aren’t in Harry’s Hands they’re in Rory’s but and Harry’s put Rory in a lot of positions if you’re going to give Harry that much credit um for him putting Rory in those positions but he puts Rory what he gives Rory that mental happy Zone to be able to perform to where he has done so I think Harry I I have no issue and with Harry and I know a lot of people attack it because Rory hasn’t W and you’re looking for a reason and that’s an easy reason for me the at the end of the day there was two two pudding Strokes that were made one was a pull and one the one on 18 looked like he hit a bit high on the ball because you’re just nervous and he’s human and it sucks that he missed him it’s just tension at the end isn’t it and you’re going to get this choke is you know it’s an emotive word and we talked about Sebastian Soderberg last week and that that was a choke from from eight shots clear to to to doing what he did on the 18th um you know if you’re going to talk about choking that that was choking Rory missed a couple of Parts you can’t I’m with you bar you can’t you know you can’t put that down to to Harry and ultimately Rory didn’t make those Strokes now if Bryson doesn’t get up and down on the 18th goes to a playoff and Rory wins the playoff everything’s forgotten you know you’re not having any of these conversations and the point you made about Bryson winning that tournament in the end he won it with that you know that final whole performance getting up and down from from the position he was in um ultimately wins him the golf tournament yeah Rory missed the putt um but that’s pressure and it happens time and time again how many times have we witnessed golf at any of the levels that we observe and see a player struggle on the final hole the final couple of holes typically the ones that I’m backing are the ones that do that of course but um Bryson missed a short put as well yeah it’s easy to forget that and where he was on the 18th he could have easily made a double bogey not just like a bogey could have easy made a double and Rory could have won the tournament it’s just he pulled off an exceptional shot at the moment of highest pressure yep it’s just it’s just it was a brilliant brilliant watch I mean ultimate drama no really good and second uh second major second US Open for Bryson plenty of Clues there as well wasn’t there um Sith of the Masters second of the PGA Championship little bit skinny price-wise but um you could certainly make a significant case for him seems to be kind of adopting that Brooks m ity a little bit with uh with his Focus now on uh on Majors why do you think the three of us didn’t consider him properly last week well I I’ll tell you I’ll give you the answer to that right away he was first for driving distance he was 66th for driving accuracy that’s why because when you looked at previous winner here it was that mixture of long driving and accuracy and instantly you thought well Bryson just hasn’t got the accuracy But ultimately he didn’t need it even when he was missing Fairways and clearly he was missing a lot cuz he was 66th in the field for driving accuracy he had the skill to be able to navigate those Sandy native areas and you did say off mic and this is true and we should give props give props to John Jeff I I thought the course setup there was absolutely amazing yep that that whole point of Bulls going into those Sandy native areas and either being okay or not being okay really added drama to every ball that you saw trickling off the Fairway some people go you know that’s very random you shouldn’t really have that in golf but wasn’t it refreshing to see that rather than the ball going in the rough and you’re thinking well they’re just going to hack it close to the hole and scramble yeah what’s what’s random what’s random about it is that it’s random in the to the benefit of the player if they don’t get Goose by you know with one of those wire brushes they’re already in the area where there would be rough so in in or in another world where that course had rough you you you missed a fairway you’ve got a bad lie or you’ve got a pretty tough you know tough Lie from heavy US Open rough in this scenario there was a chance of being lucky and I think that made that made it exciting every time a ball was going towards it it was it was good good drama I loved it do it again added added another dimension for sure if you actually look at those numbers as well it actually shows how crazy that setup was at Piner to a certain extent if you look at those numbers with Dish Amo so he was clearly long and not overly straight I mean he still hit 57% of his Fairways but then you look at Rory only two yards shorter off the tea and hit 82 a half% of Fairways number three for driving accuracy so it just showed you I mean next time we visit here and by the way pineur is going to be on this US Open wrote a it’s going to be what they calling it a a kind of key course moving forward you can sit there now in you know in the future if I haven’t got mad and crazy and I’m still writing about golf which is more than likely I think it’s eight years time but you can sit there going well actually driving distance in accuracy doesn’t really matter and I think then Bryson I mean on the basis I was on him last time at the PJ Championship I always want to put Bryson up at MES because he has got that in mind that kepka mentality he gets in the fire and he he stays there doesn’t disappear so I like Bryson I think he’s a great player he’s a he’s a real Miss to the PJ tour and I just hope that they get this live PJ tour situation sorted out we get a lot more tournaments a WGC kind of structure where we get two or three where in addition to the majors all these guys are mixing and we’re seeing Bryson a lot more on our TV screens and kka and cam Smith and you know the list goes on yep you know what’ll happen though if they come back together no not not detracting anything from Bryson at all it was amazing last week um and he’s um he’s matured nicely and he’s really good fun and you can you can see just how good a heart that guy has and yeah bring it on but you just know what they’ll do is they’ll they they’ll do what they did to blocky they’ll just oversaturate over focus on how great it is is about Bryson being back and you’ll get nothing but Bryson rammed down your throat for months on end and it’ll they’ll make the people you know Turn full circle on them because they can’t themselves I am but so realistic I know how they do it yeah you you know how the American Media Works don’t you they’ll kill us they’ll ruin us for everyone because it’s amazing right yeah and you they’ll turn them in a few months but anyway that side we do like getting everybody back together is what matters so Bryon won it Ry lost it so I’m agreeing with that let’s let’s take you through a few sub text as well Patrick Klay actually genuinely contending in a major discust and start to finish step forward for Patrick now it is a step forward for Patrick Yeah and his capability and um yeah ability isn’t up for question it’s just been his um you know his approach to Majors that the fact that he led after the first round um when his previous US Open starts in particular had been so poor you know set him up but yeah hanging about rather than kind of a backdoor top eight top 10 at the end which flatters the uh the eventual finishing position was a was a was a move in the right direction for him um still you know I guess he’s a bit Marite for everyone isn’t he but he’s not the kind of player I tend to look for in general when uh when putting my betting teams together but um you can’t disregard him he’s he’s right up there in an alternative world he could have H that part on 18 and got in a playoff if Bryson had got up and down yep so yeah that’s that’s a real step forward for Patrick we had Tony you’re on Tony so well done Barry you got your each way money um Tony in third as well it’s almost as if he wants to get in that President’s Cup team he’s moved up to 9th in the President’s Cup rankings from 14th so that is interesting to see we also had and barely getting mentioned matio pavon went out in the final group with Bryson finished fifth so that is now fifth at the US Open he was also 12th at the mar fers yeah was dropped from the coverage for like almost two hours where he didn’t exist he was there on the leaderboard in the corner like and be like where’s Matthew pavon has anybody seen him no was a really good performance yeah yeah he’s seriously stepped up a grade isn’t he over the last six months or say seriously great performance and then I saw him chalked up at 150 to1 for The Travelers this week yeah I took that like thanks very much it’s insane ni maty armor six and then we had Russell hetley getting his backdoor top 10 major Xander typically also worthy of note Sam Burns got his first major top 10 as did this young Enigma Davis Thompson whose statistics this year have been absolutely amazing great driver of the golf ball Davis Thompson just great from tea to Green really so he got his first ever major top 10 so yeah all in all I I think all in all that was the you know sitting here recording this seven days ago I think that was the perfect US Open the winning score was about right the difficulty of the course was right it all seemed to come together perfectly for me and a great finish yeah part from the betting it was a yeah part from betting yeah it was a good point uh top 10 Tia green I did say I’m going to mention this most weeks maroy one Tony 2 dambo three Sergio four Xander five Daniel burger six worthy of not seven Patrick cley eight Hideki matu nine listen to this Jordan SP what 10 Scotty Sheffer the only problem with Scotty was not that it was the only he had two problems he basically could kept pulling the ball left and couldn’t hit a fairway a lot of the time which did prove to be a problem but the old putting was back he ranked 70th of 74 that made the cut for strokes gained putting he was actually losing uh what was he losing uh something crazy it was like one and a half shots per round with a putter he needs a break Scotty doesn’t he all of these players um particularly with the way that these events have set up this season to go straight from a major into another signature level event um AUD Madness it doesn’t feel right does it signature level major signature level [Music] who who sat down and thought that was this was a good idea I can see why people went to live because a lot of the ideas that the PJ tour actually dream up are completely ridiculous he was basic by the way Scott was he lost one and a half Strokes on the green each round uh the only people below him were Adam senson Cameron Smith and Jordan sp there you go ninth fa to Green SP and he was second asked for patting bizarre that is bizarre yeah right we now moved back to the PJ tour it’s the last designated event Rory isn’t playing a field of pole 73 would it be now 71 71 this golf course this week is going to be completely different to what we saw at Pinos number two I know that isn’t going to be a huge shock for anybody Pete died his arm uh look at my I’m not going to go through it it take forever but you can go through my uh betting preview the link is in the description there’s a Hu there’s a huge list of peak D designs clearly TPC s grass the most famous it’s a parland golf course it’s Upstate we’re in Connecticut so we’re in the Northeast it’s only 2hour drive from Manhattan actually um par 72 but this is a slightly different par 72 to what we saw at Piner 6,835 yards I’ve actually Tiger Woods said the other week wouldn’t it be great to turn up at a venue cuz he said this at Valhalla wouldn’t it be great to turn up at a venue and they’d actually shorten the golf course well actually they have this week they’ve taken 18 yards off of it there you go 18 yards shorter year on year TPC River Highlands it’s going to be a birdie Fest bent grass with po greens bent grass with poana Fairways Kentucky Bluegrass Fescue rough tight not overly uh thin off the tea it’s three it’s 29 to 30 yards wide at 300 yards carry so that’s pretty much similar to what we saw at mfield Village the only difference here is where mfield Village is 75 this is 68 700 yard shorter uh the other thing I I mean I would have presumed that we’ve moved from North Carolina to Connecticut that it would be a lot cooler it’s actually going to be hotter this week some of these temperatures are really I mean we’re going to be almost hting 100° F and they still make them wear shorts 33 to 37° C 99 F temperatures so what does that mean I’ll tell you what it means they’re going to have pretty firm running Fairways and they will water The Living Daylights out of these greens so I think the scoring with very little wind in the forecast is going to be below Bradley won this last year 23 underp par so I reckon chaps we need a player that can shoot straight 65s yeah find the putter like Keegan did last year from somewhere yeah that’s a very interesting point poll because it’s noteworthy if you look at The Strokes game splits here last three years Bradley uh Xander and Harris English 57% stroke gained from T to Green 43 on the green so that is high that is a very similar split to what we score saw at Colonial a few weeks ago which is the event where Davis Riley held off to be fair held off he pretty much sort of closed slammed the door in Scotty sheffer’s face very early on the Sunday and said n I’m taking this one and Davis Riley for that I think was top six or seven for strokes game pting across the week I think team NOA is not in effect this week you’ve got to be gaining at least a stroke per round with the putter to actually contend here and as we know Strokes game putting is a very very strange statistic to track but you know if I’m looking at statistics and I’m seeing SE wo Kim losing Strokes on the greens each and every Tournament of the year it doesn’t fill me with enthusiasm that all of a sudden he’s going to be gaining one stroke per round to Win It On B power greens in Connecticut this week maybe if it was on Bermuda yeah but on B power not so sure Scotty Sheffer with Rory’s withdrawal goes off now as the 4 to one at unibet only F next up is Xander his price has clearly coming 15-2 with bet Fred is the best you will get right now we’re then out to Colin morara at 12 to one ludvig Berg at 16s with Victor hovland at 20s Patrick Klay has been backed off the board in 22 to1 and then Matt Su 28 Russell Henley 33s Tommy Fleetwood 33s with Tony T2 fale what should I call him T3 now T3 fale and Sam bones all at 33 to1 now Worthy of note five of the last five five of the last five of these fields signature event level have been won by the favorite four of them were Scotty Sheffer 13-2 11-2 9-2 15 to4 the other one at Quail Rory maroy 17-2 So based on that Trend we might as well not bother Scotty shefer is going to win at for one but I do have my doubts I really do have my doubts this week I mean we’re ticking all these things off aren’t we but Scotty hasn’t won on a bent power greened golf course so far and actually you go for his record he hasn’t won on a par 70 either and now I’m clutching at straws but you have to look at the uh you have to look at what what’s given to you um I looked very closely at Xander and I went through all the re major firsttime winners and I haven’t seen a major firsttime winner win within a couple of weeks of winning that major going back four or five years I think it’s hard to win a major and then literally win a sort of PJ T event quite rapidly yeah yeah I don’t know what your thoughts are on that I mean I’ve got a list here if you want to go through them it does take it and some players it it takes you know in ordant amount of time for them to to lift their game and their you know their approach to to to life I guess to to a level where they can do it again you know I think he did well last week to finish where he did in the end again it was kind of a backo finish but um for him to still finish top 10 was positive but yeah with any of these guys at the very top you know there’s got to be a level of mental and physical fatigue that’s you know going to present themselves with uh you heading into another signature event Brian Haron hasn’t won again since he won the open Winden Clark took him eight months to win his next title cam Smith kind of exception two months but then he jumped to live and won in Chicago but then Matt Fitz F Matt Fitzpatrick I’ll get out 10 months Scotty Sheffer when he won the Masters 10 months John when he won the US Open 11 months you know list just goes on H him ATU armor 6 months Bryson dambo when he won the US Open six months K morara six months so I’m not seeing a list of firsttime major winners that then within three to four weeks win a PGA Tour event so that put me off uh Xander I ended up fear of missing out really col morawa I know he hasn’t got a great record here but does that really matter not sure he’s just playing Great Golf T green I think in retrospect and we said this at the top of the show I I put too much emphasis on the driving accuracy side of things with my selections last week um but actually that course was probably too long for morar if you actually look at the way that his approach plate Works he he’s fantastic from anything from 100 to 200 yards a lot of those approaches were long approaches last week at Piner and actually I think I looked on the G sort from 200 and above he was down in the 140s um amazing enough Rory was in sort top 15 so long irons not Collins game but this golf course is just complete opposite of last week it’s all wedges 125 140 150 into these greens clearly the par FS you got a longer approach shot but it’s a sh gol course so I’m on morar I I I landed 14 to one prwd eight places each way I believe we bet 365 on col moroc carwa right where are you guys chipping in this week um two for me both 70 to one and above Barry nice Paul I’ve got one shorty I think we have them in common so um go for hiaki just think that the game is in almost exceptional shape right now and if he just arrives here balls out makes a load of putts could be a good week the pric is I got got on it yesterday before Rory withdrew so got the I think it was 28 to one yeah decent thought was a very fair price felt felt pretty good for somebody who was just about on the fringes of proper contention at a very difficult course last week he has I mean I should not say this in fact I’m not going to say it but he’s been a lot better with the poter recently there we go thanks have to ask for a re fun for my bat now Steve Well no I could have made I could have I could have I I thought I was being kind of prudent with that but he actually ranks 14th in this field in fact I think that’s becoming 13th because I’ve still got Rory in here he’s he’s 13th in this field for strokes game patting over the last eight weeks now that is very non hiedi Matsu armor we’ve seen him have these purple patches of putting form in the past and when he does that the the wins follow because the rest of his game is um he right there six Emperor isn’t it he’s top five to two to greet and he’s top 13 in my rankings for putting so for me it was a kind of no-brainer he played it last year first at De played the tournament and he finished 12 I believe yeah 13th 11 for two to Green he was actually positive on the greens but he was wasn’t putting at that point with any kind of confidence it was all negatives and small positives at the moment it seems to be a lot better than that so yeah I took him bit decky as well 20 I was on 25 to1 I got with eight places with boil Sports Paul I’m fascinated to hear your 70 to1 shouts yeah one at 70 one at 90 um Denny McCarthy back to 70 to1 um I’ve been keeping an eye on Denny um since he pushed axe Bal away at the Texas open when uh when I was on batia and the boy can put which is something that I you know you you’ve talked talked about you you mentioned quite heavily in your preview and I certainly want a putter on the team this week particularly if this the scoring is going to be pretty low which it looks like it is and uh yeah Denny fits the bill in that respect sick for the Wells Fargo since that effort in Texas 32nd last week that was solid nothing spectacular but I think the guys at the very top of the leaderboard last week will come into this with a level of mental and physical fatigue as I said and I think those who’ve just a little bit further down could could benefit from that even though it is a top class field seventh here last year as well so if he can repeat that 70 to1 um I think is a decent price the other one I’ve backed is the aforementioned AE B I backed him last week um at the US Open the logic last week was that he was showing this Progressive form that kind of signals a an impending win which we’ve seen a couple of times in his career and it was still Progressive 60th in Canada 22nd of Memorial 16th last week at the US Open I was disappointed actually in the end that he didn’t finish in the each way positions cuz going into the final few holes on Saturday he was sitting at 200 under par and playing some really nice stuff and yeah you know as as that course does it if you you make your mistakes and then rattle off a few Bogies then trying to catch them back up is nigh and impossible so I think he bogied four the last six on Saturday and that effectively put paid to that which was a shame but even so 16th the US Open was Pro progress so I think there’s potential for more progress given that he 90 to1 out there um and I backed him last week good player yeah I saw good player B here talented boy there was no reason for me to jump off I don’t think at that price just the two for me McCarthy and btia I’m Amazed Paul I’m amazed you’re not on Tom Kim the week he wins I just don’t get it how are you you’ve been backing Tom Kim for like time of Memorial and then we come to a so we come to a short Golf Course where 20 unders going to need to be the target yeah he’s hitting the ball on a string with his irons driving the ball okay just needs a week with a patter and you’re not on him what’s going on I’ll leave him to you Steve it’s going to be after this part there’s going to be an avalanche of money on Tom Kim from Paul no from everyone realizing Paul’s not on him saying I’m on him so he’ll finish second clearly but freed him up he’ll be the 11th second place finisher of the Year for me but I’m on I think Tom Kim’s a cracking fit for here you were on him in Canada weren you Paul when he got top four I think I’ve been on him about seven times this year well that golf course in Canada was a 6,800 yard past 70 with B po greens probably a few more undulations give you that but very similar course to this so yeah I’m I’m on to I I thought 50 to one I got that with bet 365 eight places each way was a bit of a no-brainer and fits this narrative don’t forget no one winning between 20 to1 and 50 to1 you could be on Tom right now 55 to1 with uni bet if you fancy just taking the six places so yeah ton him for me now you mentioned Paul about fatigue after a US Open so agree I mean this this is all over the place if we go back to Jordan spe he finished 35th of the US Open the week before Bubba missed the cut well Bubba always missed the cut at the US Open chz reevy was was third at Pebble Beach Harris English was third Xander was 14th last week last year ke and Bradley missed the cut so there’s a complete mix in there the one that really grabbed me was that mattio pavon you could see him he’s that chz Rey sort from a few years ago so let me get this straight someone that was in the couple of final group at US Open and like that Harris English win a few years ago and they it was being choked up at ridiculous prices to do well here so I thought I’d take that now I I I was I was a bit of a chicken I got 90 to one with eight places each way on mattio pavon but I also like with pavon I mean this isn’t just a kind of tip just throwing it out there I think there’s a huge relationship here when you look at Bradley Xander Dustin Johnson chz rivy they’ve all got Harris English as well they’ve all got great form out on the west coast capala now I know Capo’s got nothing to do with this but they’ve all done with at Plantation they’ve all done well there’s some good Sony Open form in there but even better is that they’ve all got form on the west coast on poana greens Pebble Beach Tory Pines Riviera well mattio pavon hit the P US Open uh sorry hit the PJ to at this year no one really thought about it he was being priced up at 400 to1 for sort of Sony Open and stuff like that he finished seventh at the Sony he then went and won the Farmers Insurance open at Tory Pines I think he was only only him and John RAM have won that tournament on course debut since 1953 and he then went to Pebble Beach next week and finish third so you know he’s ticking a lot of boxes for me so I took pavon there is still one uh operator out there at 150 to1 on Matti so no brainer for me bit disrespectful I thought but there you go I’m with you I’m with you on pavon you are and yeah and I I took I took that price with that operator we can’t we can say his skyp at but oh yeah I I can you guys he was 150 to1 with un bit and they’ve now knocked 50 points off him and put him up at 100 to one so yeah basically he’s 70 to 100 to one across the boardart from Sky better 150 so I doubt if that’s going to last long but yeah to I is your logic very similar to mine yeah playing well like you know greens greens kind of match up to what he did out in the west coast I like that kind of idea you know that kind of Link makes sense yeah like and like almost purely a price play it’s like it’s the the price versus the what was that old one the price versus the world ranking the kadra kind of principal you just it was completely out of whack yep y I think I I can see why it’s out of whack because since he finished 12 at the Masters he’s had a 49th or 30th a 67th a Mis cut a Miss cut no one had any interest in mat Pon last week then all on bang you know 12th for approach 16th for Te greeting and and really really good fifth for Pine what you going to have to do well it make a lot of parts yeah he was in my head for last week for like kind of fantasy teams or late you know in that kind of Realm and I just I couldn’t pull the trigger because of his previous form but that’s a big signal that he can turn it on for the majors without like kind of hot hot underlying form or apparently hot hot underlying form so it’s going to be interesting to watch this guy over the next year and a half like does he blossome into a a big time player towards the right with the rer cup in mind 20th in the world rankings at the moment and that win he had Paul will tell you more but the open disia win that he had at the end of last year in October I know it was in Madrid but that Golf Course featured bent grass greens mixed with POA Y and it was a short pass 71 and he shot 20 and he shot 23 under to win you know that’s what you’re going to need this week could be his surface yeah he he certainly stepped up to a whole new level since since that time it’s giving him a new Fresh leas of life isn’t it getting that WI and to do what he’s been doing on the PJ tour and in the majors is his eye opening it’s 13 months away but wouldn’t it be great to see someone another high quality player go into our rer Cup squad someone that can mix it right that’s us we’ve got a great event over in the DP World Tour in Europe uh the KLM Dutch open so Paul over to you it’s a decent field this week as well it is decent field yeah got a nice little run of events up to the Open Championship which is what’s uh pretty much a month today isn’t it um yes [ __ ] open this week Italy next week New course for me to get my teeth into seem to say that virtually every week with the DP worldour then the BMW International open then the Scottish which is when we expecting Rory back further to his uh statement last night but yeah this week km open uh Matt Wallace has been backed into the favorite position at 16 to1 he opened at 22 to1 yesterday which would have been really quite tempting but that didn’t last wasn’t going to last um given that he’s dropping down a level 16 to1 and I suspect he’s going to get continued to be backed from there so he’ll be clear favorite by the time it starts Tom mckibbin 16 to1 same price at the moment Sebastian soderberg’s been attracting some money as well 18 to1 you got to be pretty brave I think to uh to keep the faith with Soderberg but there’s been some good underlying form aside from the uh the Sunday performance performances which is probably nearer the truth Rasmus hoard 18 to1 burnt vburger 20 to1 same price Lorie caner 25 to1 bar those players eight each way available from boils as normal um and again you’ve got eight Place options from bet 365 in particular bet Fred I put I backed four and all four of mine were um virtually top price with eight places with bet Fred this week they’ve really um upped their game on the DP World Tour bet Fred so do check them out before you place your bets now this event it does move around a bit so if you’re checking the stats out on the site this week do bear them in mind um the last three years have been played at bernardis golf this year we’re going back to the international um which is in Amsterdam which hosted this event in 2019 only so do bear that in mind if you’re working through the event history or the combination stats on this week’s um stats pages on the website but it’s a typically Dutch course to be fair there’s not a massive amount of difference between these courses um even though they it does hop about a bit this this event um it’s a short exposed almost linky places kind of affair um 6,914 yd par 71 the only serious change since 2019 is that there used to be a a short par for 11th um and they’ve converted that to a short par three so the overall yardage is down um and we’re playing a 71 rather than a 72 still means there are four par fivs there are just five par threes now rather than four so just a little bit of a material change there you’d expect it to impact the overall winning score a lit what I’d imagine we shall see terms of the weather Sunshine the odd shower here and there and most notably on Thursday uh Thursday is also likely to see the strongest of the wind it’s a bit Gusty it’s not particularly um consistent strong wind um but we seeing some gusts coming through on Friday they may all about into Saturday as well maybe 20 25 mph this kind of course and a lot of the Dutch courses um are built for that kind of wind and you’d kind of expect it it’s what those courses need for a little bit of protection um and without it they’re there for the take in so I think it’s pretty much what you’d expect to see around those parts rather than anything unusual now going back to 2019 Sergio Garcia was the winner here uh 16 to1 Sergio was since then um on different courses Christopher broberg 275 to1 Victor Perez 50 to1 last year Pablo larabel 55 to1 so some longer prices since of course 2019 is the one that we’re most interested in uh Sergio’s winning scores 18 under I suspect my gut feel is that we’ll be somewhere in the same kind of bracket this week um it may be reasonably tricky on Thursday and potentially uh sorry on on Friday and potentially into Saturday but I think either side of that it’s going to be good for scoring so there could be some low scores on Thursday and I think Sunday could be a bit of a shootout as well if the uh the weather forecast sticks and it’s particularly benign on uh on Sunday the way Sergio tended to uh perform or the way he got it done back in 2019 um was mainly on the par fours he was 10 under for the par fours um and only made five Bogies all week so you don’t have to make copious amounts of birdies here but you just got to keep your card relatively clean and make sure you take advantage of those par fours of course the 11th changing from a short Par Four to a par three is going to impact that to a certain degree but there’s not an over Reliance on the par fives here so it brings an awful lot of players into the mix I think um key stats to take away Sergio 83% greens regulation he was third in the field on that uh 67% for scrambling he was fourth and those stats fairly fairly consistent with many of the top performers there in terms of Strokes gained we do have strokes gained for this from back from 2019th Sergio was fourth off the T second for approach first for strokes gain seed to Green um I think if you’re going to pick a particular stat to start with this week it would again be Strokes g t green Nikolai hoard finished but there are absolutely no numbers captured for him whatsoever which is a shame I mean we can assume that he would have done most of the damage from off the tea I guess um but if you look at the rest of the top 14 where they were recorded um in terms of strikes g c to Green there was only one player Matthew Southgate who ranked outside of the top 17 of that Strokes gained te green metric everyone else was um in that top 17 so um top 14 players finish completing the top 17 of that statistic tells you that that was the key number I think so yeah if you’re starting your analysis anywhere start with strikes g t to green and go from there um 12 were the last 13 Kum Open winners had top 15 finish in one of their previous five starts so some kind of form in the relatively recent past is good sparkling immediate form I don’t think is abs absolutely essential and you kind of get that from some of the winning prices but if you just dig below the surface a bit if you got someone who showed a little bit maybe two three four weeks ago then that could be a way to go um and then in terms of course form we’ve only got 29 cents there’s nothing much to go on there a lot of the players in this week’s field are making their debut and those who aren’t will have uh will have played it just the once back in 2019 so nothing um significant to to really your teeth into in that respect and I’ll back four this week I was tempted by Matt Wallace um had he stayed at 22s or have been a little bit more than and I think I I could have could have seen myself backing him um at the top of this uh this list but 16s 14s 12s in places I think he’s going to continue to be backed Matt could go well um as listeners will know he’s one of my uh go-to players but um it’s getting a little bit skinni I think um preference for me at the prices anyway um gido migotti who I backed with bet Fred eight places 33 to one which I thought was a nice combination there there’s a little bit of 35s out there with less places but 33s with a fet was good now I backed gido um on his last start in Germany and you know I moaned and groaned about it Afters because he was co-leading going into Sunday shot 78 um frust stra him but you know may I’m a forgiving kind of guy I remember your words afterwards Steve um either on the podle to me privately which was um perhaps you needed to show some patience with him um and uh after I worked through my Approach for this yesterday I thought no you I think you’re probably right because the fact that he shot one round doesn’t make him instantly playing poor golf because he’s been playing some cracking golf up to that point um second at the China open 24th in Belgium where he’s first first for strokes G approach as well so there’s some really nice stuff and for the first three rounds in Germany he was playing um winning golf I I I was really excited to see how he’d get on that Sunday and it just just didn’t happen um but yeah that’s goal for you isn’t it he was second for strokes game putting first through the first three rounds in Germany as well and you know you combine that with the fact that he’s ta green gab was um fifth for TAA Green in Belgium ninth for TAA Green in China and you combine it all together and I think the guy is very very close to getting that NE that next win 10th third bernardis golf on debut a couple of years ago so he got a little bit of uh of Dutch form and uh of course we got the Italian Open next week so um I wonder if he’ll be Keen to return home with a fresh trophy in his hand to a hero’s welcome in his homeland we shall see G up top for me 33 to1 Johannes verman I’ve backed at 45s um another player I’ve backed in the recent past going to keep faith in Johannes as well um he was second at the Indian open led the field for Greens in regulation and strokes going approach that week eighth in China fifth for strokes again Cesar green so the kind of metrics that I’m hoping to see now I backed him the following week in Belgium he finished 41st of course and then uh back to decent the week after in Germany eighth again a first for strokes g t to Green seventh for strokes G sorry first for strokes G approach seventh for strokes g t to Green he’s um his long game’s been in some really good form now the reason we getting 45 is he missed the cut of the Volvo mixed I’m not worried about that there’s um plenty of players who didn’t perform the weather wasn’t great it’s going to be a little bit better this week I think there’s enough in his recent performances to suggest that he’s in the kind kind of form that uh he could contend here this week 40th back in 2019 when they came here um the numbers under that for Johannes verman with third for strokes gain approach and sixth for strokes gain CA green so he did get the um measure of the course from a uh long game perspective I’m expecting him to go to well go pretty well this week I think the other two um couple of Dutchman to finish going Double Dutch first up Yos Lon 50 to one you know may I can’t resist a bit of yst or yast yast is toast he probably will be after Thursday yeah but um now I can’t resist yast and particularly on home soil he’s already won this twice he won at kener in 2013 he won the at the Dutch in 2016 he was runner up in 2007 three more top 10 finishes lots and lots to like about his performances in his homeland um just qualified for the Olympics that got confirmed yesterday so he should be um pretty boyed by that I think and if you look at his six wins on the DP World Tour the old European tour as was and all of them between 12 and 19 under the par this is absolutely his wheelhouse this kind of mid schore range that we’re likely to see this week is where he thrives 10th there at the international back in 2019 um and uh yeah I think you know if you recent form doesn’t tell us much 33rd at the Volvo mixed but before that three top 14 finishes in four starts so he kind of fits this Narrative of uh no immediate form but uh you know some some decent top 15 or thereabouts finishes in the recentish past heading to his homeland I think he steps up a gear this week yast 50 to one and the other one another Dutchman Darius vanre at 100 to1 it’s still available 100 to1 with eight places with be Fred I thought that was an absolute steal for guy’s already a winner this season he got that breakthrough back at the um the magical Kenya open it was in February uh fifth for strokes g t green that week eight for strokes going approach absolutely ideal that for this week’s task little bit off the boil since but then 12th last time out in Sweden much more like it he was ranked 11th for strokes G approach that week in Sweden fourth at Bernard golf in 2021 in this event that’s a that’s his best effort here again he’s um he’s made it to the Olympics he’ll be partnering at yoast um when they’re out there um at lolf National at the start of August that’s got to another be a huge boost to his uh to his approach for this week um it’s got to be a huge boost to both of them I think and they’ll be arriving here in good spirits I think so that’s my four vanriel Lon verman and gido moty bar are you playing uh in Europe this week as we all know I am on fire with my European tour or DP World Tour selections recently um in terms of giving The Bookies money consistently week on week I I’m going to I’m going to I’m going to stick with you with verman and vanriel I’ve backed vanriel I think I was on him the week when he finished 12th but uh you know so not a poit note but he disappointed me so let’s give him a chance this week and I keep I I can’t I can’t seem to drag myself away from Affy barnrat in a couple of you know you love him didn’t you we all do I like him too I do just I thought you know we thought like a couple of weeks ago was kind of tip on from that little bit of form he was showing um eight nine weeks ago and just nothing really happened but he’s had a couple of good performances here in the Netherlands um so the odds are nice I’m just going to jump on it just see if that Randomness Works in my favor Joe does I’m just looking at the sheet here does have a good um set of results here in the Netherlands is Mike Lorenzo Vera he’s another one of my ones that I like to pack you had a six six times playing here at the Netherlands he’s got uh an eigh 10th and two 12ths yeah yep shter course should should suit him as well could go well could go well that magic p is working well for him I’m going to keep it really simple this week he’s play he’s playing Great Golf so I think Matt Wallace will win we’ve always said that drop from PJ to DP World Tour incredible uh 13th for Tia Green in Canada when finishing 27th a few weeks ago he also finished fourth at Byron Nelson and 20th at Myrtle Beach Classic 43rd at the PGA so he’s playing some great golf in this field I I think Wallace is the the best operator yeah the feeling with him he might I think think we’re going to need to put this into you know we’ve got the Post-it note of doing well I think we’re going to have to bring this in as a a podcast thing doing a Soderberg now I don’t see Matt Wallace doing a Soderberg if he’s in the hunt on a Sunday no which on the DP world too you can’t say m many can you can’t say many that about many no the Sunday Hot Potato the one I’m going to back he’s 18 to1 as well he’s burnt vburger this live thing that’s been going on the DP World Tour and if you look at burn he he’s a bit like a Matt coocha he does love to literally destroy his price and then win his record at the KLM open on completely different courses is 12th second and Ninth in his last three and if you just look at where he wins he’s W in France at lulf National he’s won twice in Denmark he’s also won the Scottish open at Renaissance so in a world where burnt is hitting greens and a tour where live guys are contending and winning regularly lorri caner and Thomas Peters being the last two I think I think vburger is bloody obvious but fits the narrative completely so I’m just going to back those two and let it let Let It Ride R be done with it got some great statistics coming out of um this season so far burnt vburger very difficult to ignore in that respect yeah also I just noticed he does tend to win tournaments 20 you know La last one he won was 21 under 16 under Italian Open 22 they’re the kind of scores that you’re suggesting might be maybe 18s something like that feels like it feels like his wheelhouse yeah yeah potentially he just potentially has been putting terribly and all of a sudden he’s started making a few putts in Germany last time out so yeah it was improved it’s been a busy show thanks for your time chaps I hope your bets go well you too boys I hope listeners bets go well DraftKings teams and the light what you got next week Paul next week it is the Italian Open um but yeah on a new a brand new course or seemingly a brand new course I’ll have to do a bit of digging to see if there’s any history for me to latch onto Italian open for you and I can’t actually remember what I’ve got I know that’s terribly bad of me I’m having quick flick oh Rocket mortgage classic Tony feno classic Tony feno classic we’ll see you next week yeah exactly if not the three I’m open see you next week if you [Music] but everyone that your back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system part