Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton on the Travelers Championship | TOTT Podcast

Rob Bolton discusses his approach to analyzing golf tournaments and why he’s not a big fan of using models. He previews the Travelers Championship and highlights players like Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sungjae Im. He also talks about the tradition of the Travelers Championship in showcasing promising young players, including Michael Thorbjornsen.

Golfbet is the official betting hub of the PGA TOUR. From exclusive on-site information, to expert analysis, we’re helping you make your golf picks each week.

Follow Golfbet:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/golfbet/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/golfbet
X: https://twitter.com/Golfbet

Rob Bolton is not a big model guy what does that mean we’ll get into it here momentarily as the golf bet Insider from PJ tour.com joins us to preview this week’s Travelers Championship big fella analysis by paralysis or maybe I have that the other way around I’m paralyzed just thinking about it uh help me out by offering an explanation of why you’re not a big model guy as it relates to an examination of the field here this week at CPC River Highlands what’s happening by the way hey man good to see you back here yeah I’m not a model guide models exist and they’re they have a point and a purpose value in our space to help us identify who should play well part of the projection I know there are some who don’t follow the game as the sport overall as closely uh perhaps they dabbling in other sports time is a a constraint that sort of thing and models can take you to a certain place with the with the data only um and I know they’re there I’m not I’m not uh you know get off my long guy yelling at the clouds and I think about when would be the best time if I wanted to dabble and I was thinking okay we have a couple of the last two weeks which have been grueling we have no cut this week TBC River Highlands easy track par 70 not necessarily going to be the easiest relative to par but it’s going to be easy last year scoring average was a tournament record low I mentioned no cut and the fact that when we think about archetypes for specific types of formulas like this week I always go to the onew punch of hitting Greens in regulation and sinking the putts of those greens hit in regulation so marry the two together it’s only a field of 71 doesn’t really take all that long and then share the model it’s a tool it’s something I use um not as actively as I did this week or at least to point it out in that space this week uh and then I wanted to show what uh what that data revealed and lo and behold nothing surprising at the top but then once you get into number two and a little bit lower uh perhaps there’s some some really good value and look I’m not espousing this is the way to do it I’m just sharing a method that can help you Whittle into somebody and potentially reveal who might present as strong for other reasons that maybe shouldn’t for this week specifically it just made sense to share it uh and honestly although there’s quite a few words at the top of that I try to limit that it actually could have been four or five times longer to really share the level of that detail even though it’s one component of the work so we talked about this before the Memorial tournament presented by workday you and I did I was really looking forward to seeing if this would be one of those weeks where the guys exhale after the major and suddenly I feel like man it’s been a couple of weeks where they’ve they’ve been out there and how many wouldn’t mind taking the week off so other factors as usual played into it uh and I’m sure we’ll get into that here momentarily there’s a good chunk of the US Open field that is in Cromwell Connecticut this week including uh Scotty Sheffer the betting favorite at plus 400 that’s where he has lived all year Xander Schley second choice at plus 750 they’re one and three in the world they’re one and three in the power rankings Patrick kley number two in the power rankings this week Rob coming off in my opinion his best ever showing in a major he was really fighting until late on Sunday and I thought because of that kle might be seeing heavy action this week but there’s still excellent value in the neighborhood of about 20 uh to one for kley here this week something to pay close attention to I so badly wanted us slot him number one in the power rankings just you know we think about him shooting at 60 as an amateur on this course what is it 13 years ago now and then he didn’t play for a while he was out for a while um and then he’s been back and he’s played really well and then that close call I mean is it a close call he finished only he finished T3 only two back but he really wasn’t in it he had a strong finish but a kick but you know he wasn’t going to win that US Open uh the fact that uh you know Xander chafl good friend of his I think won the PGA Championship just a month prior you knew that had to play into the into that relationship kentley hasn’t necessarily been in a slump um he’s had a decent season but not can’t Lees necessarily the consistency is a little bit off and again I mean we know who he is household name we expect him to just you know contend every time out it’s not going to happen he’s showing that but in a week like this and on a little bit of an uptick after last week and he’s a machine that’s where the confidence comes in he’s got to be every lineup DFS multiply of the units that type of thing in terms of betting as well Sam Burns had a sneaky productive US Open didn’t he finishing tied for ninth very emblematic of his season quietly coming along with six top 10 so a lot of momentum a lot of fine play for Sam coming into the week here and some healthy value for the guy who’s sixth in the power rankings at plus 3,300 yeah that’s really good value I I spun my my wheels trying to figure out the best way to Express how can it be a recurring theme that he has quietly had six top 10s it’s Polar Opposites in terms of it it was I couldn’t I couldn’t make it happen fortunately no one called me out on it maybe maybe just fewer people are reading than I actually realized fewer people are that sort of thing however it has been quiet it’s just that it’s been regular he opened the season with four in a row I mean that that’s part of it so it’s only been only been two since um yeah another guy younger part of part of the form fora is although these guys are physically fit and many of them are in their prime or younger so they can handle 3 weeks on the road I do prefer a guy who hasn’t had that stress that some have had recently and then there are exceptions to those guys as well in this field uh but I I I’m leaning into a little bit of the youth and Sam Burns nappy Factor also is still playing playing up a little bit at the strong opening start of the season as I said tapered off a little bit focused on becoming a father that happened and then he’s been playing well again so keeping it simple with him again a guy that you should be in every lineup and uh wouldn’t be surprised if he finally breaks through and wins another stroke play event it’s been a minute you need very little reason if any to include keigan Bradley in the golf bet uh content from from week to week uh he’s ninth in the power rankings this week how we feeling about the prospects of the defending champion at plus 5,000 this week the show is not long enough so Keegan up on the wall winner of the uh 2011 PGA behind me and just a shout out to the the folks at the Hartford yard goats there’s my minor league baseball cap sitting over my left shoulder Tim restall and his talented staff of course this is Keegan Bradley’s backyard and the fact that he’ll always be the 2023 Travelers championship winner has to feel incredibly incredibly good and the conversations he’s been having in advance I’m sure sure people coming out to see him and all that sort of thing I mean he’s probably going to host this thing at some point right that’s kind of where this thing is going uh so the fact that he’s back he’s been playing decently his value is really nice uh that I mean you’re going to have to go get a piece of that as well the model that we open the show with is is a macro version my micro technique every week for all of the years is everything is golfer specific it still comes down to him right now and the feels of him at this tournament um I just hope that there’s there’s the the uh a less of a negative or a fatigue factor that may disappoint him in a physical way because it has been a lot in the last couple weeks and and does he have enough left in the tank uh he’s in his upper 30s he’s no longer in his prime he’s close enough he’s certainly physically fit enough he’s obviously went on that uh that crazy diet that uh helped them lose weight and made him feel better few years ago in terms of being able to compete with the others and certainly the younger ones uh but that’s why he’s number nine in the power rankings uh and uh uh everything else points to a strong week for the guy and the feels of being the defending champion at this event is is specific and unique I have the Harford yard goats cap by the way in my collection thanks to a a bet a winning bet I collected from you so thank you very much try to get read on Hideki help me out on this because hideki’s form has been quite good I think he was eighth at the memorial a couple weeks ago in a top 10 at the US Open as well he won a signature event this year when he shot that 62 on Sunday at Riviera that was the round of the year in my opinion uh the odds are short plus 2200 for matama 11th in the power rankings this week Rob what’s your read he’s toxic because we don’t know about the injury even in no cut events I I look forward to looking at the expert picks for PJ tour fantasy golf to see if anybody’s holstered the guy even in a week like this he would make sense he’s in the power rankings he’s had experience on this course just everything you just mentioned in terms of a form upon arrival it all points to a a solid week but he’s almost a nopl I mean if every golfer had his profile it’d be really difficult to have some fun at this because there’s so much doubt around the guy all of the time that said he’s been paying off the faithful a lot as you mentioned at the at Riviera especially this year has been better certainly the win but overall it’s been a better he’s he’s been better he took the I think it was the Wells Fargo he sat out with the stiff neck back you know that that that Old Chestnut where as it concerns monama maybe it was too much Golf and that’s what he sat out and if it wasn’t a signature event for for which he was automatically qualified and marketed maybe he wouldn’t have committed because of the timing of it so that’s been baked into a lot of this prognostication that can be a sensitive subject I suppose but it’s also something that’s really necessary and relevant when it comes to what what I do and what betters are expecting coming off the last two weeks depending on how he’s feeling I’m holding my breath he’s not somebody I endorse but again if you’re chasing a PJ tour fantasy golf that’s the guy you want because you’re going to get five cuts made from the others might as well lean into a guy like that and you never know what can happen in a week like this much has been made of a possible fatigue factor for uh the players who have moved through a very busy stretch of highlevel golf over the last few weeks I would hope for 20 million they could muster up the the energy to compete this week certainly but you know maybe if you’re sort of taking a deep dive into this you look at someone who missed the cut last week someone like sunj IM for instance and there’s a twofold benefit to that perhaps you’ve got a little more rested player and you’re likely to get better value and here’s IM checking in at plus 5,000 big felon he’s your outright winner among your sleepers this week yeah and 700 FedEx Cup points as well cannot go overlooked in the signature event last one of the Season no cut 71 in the field so the fact that bmgm went down into top 30 was uh was tasty appreciated that uh and there’s cnre M again he’s my outright sleeper at 50 to1 to win needed a guy who who fit the profile that I’d already laid out for the work which was which we’ve already covered and he is that he missed the cut last week no pressure extra rest he won recently defending a title back home in South Korea and it’s one of numerous leaderboard perform uh appearances uh in the last couple of months so that’s enough and the fact that he’s as long as 50 to1 got to got to go in with that full unit even though the fact that Swan as I keep repeating to you the recurring theme is n of the outrights for the sleepers have broken through they’re supposed to come out of the power rankings and many of them have fortunately part of the fabric of this tournament through the years has been the introduction to golf fans of a promising young player the travel Championship has been uh very gracious about extending sponsor invites to young players you mentioned kley a little bit earlier Rob I think Justin Thomas made his PJ tour debut you are in lock step with the tournament in showcasing promising players because you like Michael thorbjornson for a top 10 at plus 750 just the latest young player after a standout career at Stanford to make his PGA Tour debut this week well we’re that at that time of the season right it’s mid June college is over and a lot of these great talents have have moved on graduated turn pro and the tournaments this summer uh uh the opens especially uh are going to save space for guys like this The Travelers is not an open uh it’s a sign event yet it made space for Massachusetts native Michael thorbjornson PJ tour University borian he’s now the newest PGA Tour member so he would be eligible for the FedEx Cup playoffs this year he’s not lubig oer but he’s the next guy in line in that lane and so shiny new toy where’s our whistle where’s our where’s our sound effect the dog is stopped barking by the way I don’t know what’s going on there I’m still hold my breath about that yeah thank you very much so this guy already has a solo fourth two years ago at TBC River Highlands this is his third appearance Thor bjornson we’re talking about not the dog it’s an opportunity 7 and a half to one for a top 10 no cut that’s top seventh of the field in in a place where he’s already finished top five so yeah it’s an opportunity lock step I try it’s still about the betting it’s still about showcasing a guy that makes sense from a value standpoint and when he was I kept scrolling like where is this guy because he’s definitely somebody we need to keep an eye on for the foreseeable future oh 7 and half to one no brainer for top 10 let’s go with that seven straight W’s for the New York metropolitans still a little business to take care of on this Wednesdays we record this one more game with the World Champ in Arlington tonight then a big series on the North side later this week big fellow that will determine a couple of the I don’t know 12 or 15 bets we have going with our teams this season so we’ll get a little clearer picture come Sunday evening you and I will reconvene next week for the rocket mortgage classic in Detroit you can follow Rob on X kids at Rob Bolton golf good to see you big fella yeah 12 or 15 bets we’ve cut back this year this is my season this weekend at Wrigley hopefully I’ll be smiling again next week B see you then