Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) and Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) are joined by Luke to break down BETS and DFS options for the 2024 Travelers Championship!
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it is the root balla PGA show for The Travelers Championship after a wonderful US Open we’ve got an amazing guest on the show with us that I am a huge huge fan of we got my main man Luke all the way from his wonderful YouTube channel and patreon which is in the description below please check that out Luke what is going on on this fine Monday evening just trying to recover after that crazy Sunday that we had but uh stoked for Signature event this week we’re right back at it with literally the world’s best just a couple days later so stoked to be at it with you guys stok to be at it we’ve got the world’s best minus Rory maroy and that’s because Bryson Des Shambo kicked these ass Spence you were on Rory last week how are you doing it was a profitable week that’s the positives there you know here’s the Rory discussion and this is the only thing I’m going to say about it like whether he wins another major or not that is what’s going to be discussed and and I think more so for me it comes down to what’s the actual fair prices that we’re getting on him but look at what he’s done 37 Majors since his last win 21 top 10 finishes I feel like at some point this ends up turning around it’s the same conversation that we had with Xander Byron over and over again my model has taken on this belief specifically over I would say the last six months or so where there’s a certain separation that’s occurred from yes Scotty’s in his own world and then you get this slight drop off into the Xander and Rory range and then it’s the oberg and morawa and all of them and you get these live guys that are sprinkled in and out of the mix I think Rory is still going to get one at some point he is just too competitive in two in there every single week but look Byron I play the game every single major it feels like with Rory and it hasn’t come through unfortunately and that’s one of the worst losses I’ve seen somebody take like I can forgive the Miss on eight I think that one was a slimy it was a slimy little putt there the one on 16 there was no excuse for that one and you miss on 16 and then all of a sudden you get that knee knocker that’s going to get a little bit of a twist and turn to it on 18 and all of a sudden you don’t make that putt either and I will say and I was very fortunate when you look at last year at the US Open I have Windom Clark and a lot of what Rory did down the stretch to not win the golf tournament it’s like you get the es in the flo there there have been so many moments with Rory it feels like to where maybe he hasn’t given his best stuff but players have gotten up and down against him in every single situation to make him not get across the finish line and you still have to make putts at the end of the day to win I it’s just it’s a tough spot for him at this moment it was it was unfortunate from a bankroll standpoint but still a profitable week yeah that’s that’s what we like to preach of here Luke is myself in particular I’ve been ice cold on the outright front but you know what I’m hanging in there with with the placements and all the things that we do to try and subsidize that black hole of betting winners because I just bet second placers and that’s my jam so it is what it is I’ve made peace with that nonsense we just bet the the placement market and the E Ray like I do not bet outright without e Ray anymore because it’s the only way for me to ever get a sweat because I’ve had benan Miss four-footers and and the rest of that nonsense all perspiring from there so how was what was your takea away from the US Open yeah it sounds like a lot of the same here by the way the outray market has been a huge black hole for my S as well uh only ones I’ve hit have been live outrights with Scotty twice and uh that’s been about it to this point so yeah for me it’s been a lot of props for me that have got me out of that black hole but yeah US Open I kind of had a feeling that he was going to collapse in some sort of fashion I mean me and my buddies were watching on the couch together and I turned to them I was like this is when Rory pulls a and I was like it’s unfortunate but I’m very confident that we’re going to see something go down and I didn’t think it was going to be as dramatic as what we saw but when he missed on 16 it was like oh boy here we go again uh 17 was um you know just kind of red the ship a little bit there then on 18 it was like okay he got himself out of trouble was going to get up and down I was like all right this is this is great to see maybe he’ll finally get into a play off show us what he’s got and then that that putt I actually thought it was a little bit closer to Ho than it was I wasn’t listening to the commentary as much I had it actually over there on the side as I was playing some uh some games with the mates and then I see him missed that Putt and then just I I I I couldn’t believe it at first and then after a few seconds I was like it’s Rory I guess it it’s unfortunate he’s 100% going to win another major and it’s not a matter of if it it’s when for him I’ll honestly be an investor in I’m going forward but it’s it’s got to be at a track where he can get like a four five shot lead I I can’t have him within two shots some those last few holes because it’s just it’s a mental thing for him for sure it’s a th% mental I mean when you’ve made 496 of the same things consecutively and then when it matters most you can’t do it that is the definition of getting inside your head you know like what are we doing but hey you know that’s Bryson did the same thing he also missed a shorty you know and we’re not speaking about that because of uh a pitching wedge that he pretty much chunked out of the bunker you know like we don’t even know if he hit that perfectly I think he said he’s trying to miss short and still kind of it’s this is the thing like you’re trying to bet on on the smallest of margins and anything can happen man but at the end of the day there are some people that just thrive in that moment you know like when cam Smith is playing good enough when Brooks is playing good enough they tend to just Savor that John Ram as well um and then Scotty anytime before like may you know loves that kind of situation so rest of the time he just does not show up Spence do you want to chat about what Scotty got up to this weekend well I just want to say one more thing to that and then we can have the Scotty discussion um I agree with you there are certain players that rise to the occasion when they get the moment and Bryson did rise to the occasion I I also think though he ran very pure during that event there were so many Miss drives where he missed everything and you need that sometimes to get across the finish line of a golf tournament and um you know that was one of those spots where he was a negative trajectory mover in my model for upside wasn’t going to get there personally in the outright Market I thought all the value was baked out with all the bets that had come in from a lot of the the public money that had hit with him and you know it’s one of those things where it is what it is at the end of the day it’s a swing that ends up you know affecting the week a little bit but as we all talked about here it’s not just outright bets we’re trying to find other markets to find Value um with the Scotty discussion it’s kind of like you and I talked about um on the show last week he we’re talking about like positive negative trajectories and models and movements and all this stuff I was not a believer that the putter was 100% back you took that specific green complex that he was going to get he was a negative trajectory mover for me on that surface he had everything hit him in the wrong direction with it top 10 projected scor is still at the end of the day with it and that’s what you expect to have from him with the ball striking and he way underperform those outputs that we got but you know look it’s professional golf it’s we talked about the volatility of the course there was going to always be certain players that were going to hit the highs and the lows of that and Scotty just couldn’t make a putt I don’t think that that’s any indication moving forward of what we’re at the ball striking still look great he just didn’t make putts on a surface that historically inside of my model he has struggled that at times so I think it’s just a simple write off of that with him yeah and and you you’re right Spence maybe his mental capacity also like you mentioned you just absolutely took care of buses at the memorial you’ve got all those obligations afterwards All That Jazz you didn’t have the perfect runup to a US Open right like Mo both of his Majors now he’s had some stuff not a lot of people are good enough to win the tournament before a major and still have to try and contend you know Scotty Sheffer is now playing too good of a golf essentially to kind of provide himself with the best opportunities in these majes so some stricky stuff there from him but I think he’s still going to bounce back we got an interesting week coming up this week with him um we’ll chat about that as we go through our rankings of our top 10 golfers but Luke what are you looking for for the guys playing at TPC River Highlands this week in a nutshell yeah so two major things for me that I’m trying to hunker down on because I think sometimes we try and look at too many stats me we kind of bog ourselves down with too much analysis for me it’s Fairways hitter number one whether that’s good drive percentage R old driving accuracy I think that matters around this track especially with the 4-inch rough that they have they uh kind of spruced it up a little bit when they made it a signature event so I think you saw that last last year that you’re going to see it this year as well and then the other half is medium or I guess just midiron approaches so from 125 to 175 that’s the real like honey pocket that I’m looking at so 125 to 150 if you’re a proximity bucket guy 150 to 175 and even if you’re not you know into looking at specific proximity buckets I think you can look at just regular old approach heading in this is going to be an ironfest it typically is a second Shot Golf Course and you’ve had players that maybe aren’t the best off the team pop here because of that second shot success so yeah it’s off the te accuracy and then those mid irons absolutely Spence anything else to add to that no I think Luke said that pretty well like they’ve definitely made a concerted effort with some of the minor Restorations that were done after Keegan Bradley won last year to transform this away from being one of those bomb and gouge facilities extra rough added narrowed Fairways um Luke said it best I’m also looking for a little bit more accuracy over distance you’re going to get nearly a 70% rate of proximities or approach shots that are going to come from within 175 yards so um I I don’t think you necessarily have to be one or the other with it like golfers that are short off the tea are still going to be able to have that Advantage if you have that mid to short iron proximity players that are long I still think that there are certain routes that you can go where you know Bubba kind of did this the best in the past I know it’s a different course that we’re going to get this time but Bubba’s mentality always was just grip it and rip it as far as you can and give me a short iron in hand and I’ll figure out how to score from there I still think that there’s some semblance that’s going to come into play of that which is one of the reasons why whenever we get these deviations from what we have gotten in the past I never like to alter my model over the top with it like I I think when you make too many changes and like Luke talked about sometimes we look at too many stats and that is correct we also sometimes make too big of changes off of like expected transformations of a course that never actually come to fruition and we’ll get a better indication as the years go on of what this track is really going to become but it’s just minor deviations compared to what we have seen over the past five years and I think that’s kind of just pushing me a little bit more in that direction of accuracy because of this thick rough at the course yeah it’s it’s a pretty simple situation you know the course history usually when there’s a course history that’s super super sticky there’s specific traits about a course that kind of stick out and allow guys to really shine so I think we’ve covered the course perfectly enough this week let’s dive into our top 10 ranked golfers like I said we’ve got joy Don’s Top 10 rankings on the rootable PGA website there those are free for you Luke stuffs in the description below me and Spence are going to be handing out our model so it’s Luke we’re going to give one each to everybody so let’s actually start with this out of just pure curiosity let’s take a peek here and first person to say who Luke’s top 10 golfer is the number 10th ranked golfer before we really get into all of this stuff let’s take a actually you know what I can see Tony fow over there so let’s go with that hit me with Luke’s ninth rank golfer and we’ll give you the first person to hit us with Luke’s ninth rank golfer in the chat over here on the YouTube channel no all over the place like I said to you guys in the studio my parents are watching and now I’ve got performance anxiety so yeah we go we’re going to get him out the way Luke talk to us about your number 10 ranked guy so my number 10 ranked golfer is Sam Burns so he’s uh actually rating better than I expected for this golf course I mean normally you like Sam Burns at a off the tea heavy course I mean we know that he can get into a real Groove when it comes to the off the te play but I guess it’s just the form that was getting him towards the top of my model if you take a look at the last 12 measured rounds I use that for a lot of my recent form he’s been popping a lot more than you’d expect off the te so he’s gaining about6 Strokes per round there but most surprisingly the guy’s been an around the green Guru recently he’s gaining about two-thirds of a stroke per round there three quarters of a stroke per round with the putter so just he’s playing better than he should be he’s playing well above his Baseline right now and a lot of times that’s a good reason to try and ride some form so yeah number 10 it’s not like he’s a good course it’s more so just the form let’s go dude I’m right in there with you I’ve got myself a Sam Burns outright this week looking very much forward to a fun week from him I think he’s he’s best fit for these little ranges where you got like 125 to 175 I don’t like the long irons for Sam so we’ll see how that works out for him big big fan of him and then at a call of course you got to putt lights out let’s see what he can do so also coming off of a top his first top 10 which hurt me big time this week but his first top 10 in a major ever you know so since the T20 has his best finish this guy’s wrapping out some really good form right now I think he’s riding it pretty hard so looking forward to seeing what he can do we’ve got the model jumping up all over the place yes Spencer you’ve got Russell Henley as your 10th guy I have a question for you Byron really quickly what’s up what was the bet that you made with Kenny Kim and what do you have to eat yep so I made a bet where it’s no longer I have to eat it I’m going double on nothing now so um but it’s called butterfish it’s like Esco or escalar and it’s like a super oily fish that causes some intestinal discomfort so to speak um Kenny’s you try to impress a date one time and ate it and then you know just go watch the fantasy golf degenerate show Kenny I don’t want to I don’t want to bring that into the road of water situation this is a classy show that’s Kenny show we’ll let that remain over there but um yeah not looking forward to that but we running it back I got Mino versus Sam at the Open Championship so I I fancy my chances of squashing that bit so that’s totally cool I also think you were for whatever it’s worth on the right side of that wager and I know I was minwoo just never like he struggled on Thursday and then the bet you were looking good at some point and then Burns kind of turned it on I I don’t know I mean Burns for me like while he’s not in the top 10 on my model this week he is inside of the top 18 great short course player for me with the returns there but one of the reasons why liked Russell Henley is he is the number one player we’ve talked a lot about accuracy and wanting players that are accurate he’s the number one player for me over a two-year running sample size and you can condense that over just the past year too but like number one player for me in driving accuracy any of the metrics that you’re trying to find there whether it’s the weight it’s scoring that really gets propelled for him in his par for scoring fourth for me in the model you’re going to get eight holes here that are going to land between 400 to 450 yards he propels up my sheet in that area I think this is one of those spots and I talked about this early in the year with Henley where the market was very low on him to begin and we seem to have gotten this correction now to where he’s a sub 4 to1 golfer in this field he’s $8,600 on DraftKings he’s priced in matchups against players that are right in that range where he’s a substantial favorite against them we had seen this at towards the end of last year in the beginning of this year of this form starting to turn around and it’s kind of been hit and miss at portions of this year but I think he’s one one of the safest players that you’re going to have on the board this week inside of the top 10 for me also in safety I think the upside numbers or where we can have a different discussion with this just because I have problems getting to the outright total with what we have at this current number I think it’s already baking in a lot of this but I I like Russell Henley a lot for cash games and for for matchups and things of that nature I’ve cold Russell Henley six pan The Spence because 60% of the time he’s inside the top 20 all the time and that to me is what that safety brings you and since he’s transformed his whole short game that’s what kind of really kept him going at the US Open so at a venue like this touch around the green lots of putts love what’s going on there my guy for number 10 is seeth the gala as Jens asks here in the chat what do we think about plotters versus bombers well he has seah versus Russell Hanley you know ranked in our top 10 each I think seah’s got a bit more distance a little bit more accuracy as well he’s a good drive the ball but I think sah hitz just the putting for me has really got him into this mix it’s definitely not the short game around the greens that’s the pting that’s really helping him out there so he’s my guy I don’t have an outout on him this week I’m very nervous about that I’m usually on him but 35 to1 was just a little too steep for my liking in this field I like like 50s on siah you know kind of like a free Square so Luke you’ve got Russell Henley touch up what Spence has mentioned already so yeah I was kind of surprised that Henley wasn’t hired my model because if you could draw up a golf course for him I mean this is it right here driving accuracy midiron the guy does that better than most on tour the issue I think we’re going to have is the price tag the ownership and DFS if you’re trying to get different he is certainly not going to be different on a week like this so I think for cash games that’s probably the best place that you could use them I think somebody down in chat mentioned that that he’s one of the better um cash players that you can get to he’s got that consistency that floor that you’re hoping for there so I’m probably not going to have that much exposure which doesn’t feel great especially because he’s such a good course fit but it just feels like you’d be buying so high in him whether it’s price tag ownership it’s all pretty inflated right now yeah he’s he’s very popular and and rightfully so right so yeah surprisingly not in my model so Spence you’ve got number nine as Victor hland entering the week look at what havin did with this short game last week that was one of the worst venues that he could have had I think this is a nice bounceback spot for him I’m very interested to see where the ownership ends up Landing I’m hoping it’s one of those situations where everybody gets disgusted by the performance that he’d given and then getss off of him this week but third for me and weighted Strokes gain total uh that put him like if I if I put a little bit extra weight in that area I could have propelled him much further up the sheet than ninth overall so like to me this is the gpp sort of Target if you’re trying to get away from the very chalky routes that are going to be around him higher and lower on the board where I’m hoping this is going to be one of those sub 15% op options that if you throw him in one of those large field mme contests you can create a little bit of Leverage with him absolutely I think he’s a great pivot this week and I think along with Adam Scott you know some great course history here the guy’s a very good wedge player can make tons and tons of putts I think he’s a fancy fancy option when just a little shout out to the guys in the chat we’re boycotting ludvig because my man Millie goats AKA over there had ludvig in one of the best lineups I’ve seen somebody that I know personally in not the Millie but a very big tournament still and he still won a clean four four figures off of a of a small entry which was quite fancy but ludvig ejecting over the over the weekend wasn’t ideal and kind of funnily enough we can chat about him actually once we get into our guys about him but I’m a big fan of Adam I think he’s going to be a nice DFS option I don’t know how chalky he’s gonna be but he tends to kind of find a little bit of steam if people are paying attention to the RO to ball PGA show let’s chat about ladig now dude so ludvig is just an absolute stud I don’t think this is a course that I I would really want to Target him at because it takes the driver out of hand more than I would like um the guys on a a few websites that go through break down golf courses off the te have said that he’s probably only gonna hit driver two or three times the entire round um now I don’t know if I buy that I think it’s be closer to like four or five you’d have to think that he’s going to take on some of those driveable par fors he probably won’t lay back but somebody at 10,200 $1 this week like L big you got to love him if you’re going to go out there and play him in lineups so if if he’s going to come in low owned kind of like you were saying with Victor hin Spence I think I would be a buyer on l v gabber but I I just worry about the the driver right that’s his main weapon normally I like golf courses where guys can lean into their main strength it’s not like the guy isn’t a killer when it comes to approach play around the green play or putting he’s very Stout in all three categories but where he really separates himself at least in my opinion would be off the te so I got aberer in my top 10 I think it’d be hard not to to put him up there in that top 10 but still maybe not the best track for him yeah sure um I will and I don’t want to disagree with our guests too much but respectfully Luke if I’m taking a look at Strokes gained off the tea on short golf courses less than 7200 dots if you look at RSM classic the John Deere Pebble y he he dials it in and some of his best rounds have actually he’s like super accurate and super long you know like these are the course think he can really separate also he’s only been on tour for a year so that’s my immediate opinion who the heck knows we need a bit more from this guy but that’s what makes him so unique is there’s so much to speak about so Spence what do you have to say about LY number one in my model strok off the T short course is number one in weighted total driving the biggest detriment that I had for him in my model is I think it hurts him ever so slightly his long iron proximity Is is more of where my concerns would be with it like he is Elite from 175 plus and you’re going to lose a great percentage of that just with the way that this course is built so the approach numbers would be maybe the one thing and just he he looked on Sunday like he had gone through hell and back and and for him to look like that is rough you know because he’s so chilled yeah that that would be my only concern I guess would be those two things but my model loved him this week there’s just so many statistical data points that pretty much any course and that’s the thing it’s we could throw him anywhere in the world and he’s going to more or less pop and um some of these young players we we’ve had this discussion a million times with just Tom Kim when he came up and I think um oberg now you get a better indication of what some of these guys are and they aren’t and while oberg has the distance that’s tantalizing at the end of the day for whatever reason these Club down spots have consistently been better for him yeah I think that’s just the weird thing and you know what for a guy that’s not necessarily the best wedge player he scores exceptionally well on these wedge venues which is you know really really weird Luke like again another Enigma you know like he does so many weird things but he’s so freaking good man I was at that RSM classic and I can tell you I did not expect to see him win that thing it made me an immediate buyer on his long-term stock because I was like a he’s not going to win here this is Kevin Kisner’s land right web Simpson yes RSM classic not guys like Alig so yeah you guys make a lot of fair points there he’s just a stud Stewie also said in the chat which is at least worth mentioning for somebody who looked like they had had everything go against them on Sunday there’s also that injury that comes into play it’s a lot of golf uh over the past three weeks for him and you know who knows how that’s going to hold up and if the ownership starts skyrocketing for him which the early indications in my model actually seemed to make me believe he might be kind of popular I if that’s the case we can have a different discussion on Wednesday and figure out what’s the best way to Pivot away from that yeah exactly we we’re currently speaking about our favorite options projecting what we think ownership might be on these guys you know at the end of the day we’ll be doing so many more shows Luke’s St you show Luke how many shows do you do a week um like nine a lot yeah Luke’s Got You cover folks you know please check into his ownership as we go along check into Spence’s check into mine as we rock and roll through the week we’re going to bring you guys all of our updated opinions and we’re really kind of just sharing what we think is going to happen going forward so Spence hit us with your guy who’s ranked number eight and it’s Patrick kley kley was one of the best leverage spots that I had on the board last week um that ended up coming to fruition thankfully and now you’re going to get the exact opposite of this where everybody went from not wanting to play him and now the entire world is GNA want to be out in him at a venue that he has found a lot of success at I mean look over the last five years fourth in 2023 additional top 15s over the next four years there um when I looked in this $9,000 range outside of morawa there were two players that had the upside prerequisites of what I was looking for to be willing to take shots in gpps and we’ll figure out where the ownership lands to kind of figure out where we want to go with that but hin and Klay were two of them morawa would be the third it’s just an ownership game at the end of the day with Klay yeah exactly and I think I’m concerned with the good US Open performance which he really hasn’t shown a lot of major zest lately and the course history we can expect him to be one of the highest owned guys we got our guys in the chat just saying Tony fena shows up with a mallet and makes every putt you know this is the thing the guy I I called his current grip like Five Finger Death Punch it’s just like five fingers on the grip and fists elsewhere it’s just a a complete monstrosity of a situation with fingers there but um Lord help him and his and his like arthritis going forward if he continues with that grip but the ball striking the T green game goly you know this guy’s got so much power he he’s he’s a fantastic Golf and he’s really starting to Trend right so I think this is going to be really interesting to see what that putter can get up to we might see a lot of guys who struggle with the the putters moving to these mallets right ever since Rory just ruining things for everybody these days you know like giving off Trade Secrets and things like that but hey I’m a big fan of Tony this week I don’t know there’s tons of people on out RS with him we’ll see I I don’t have an outr Anton Fino but he’s he’s that so Victor havland number seven for you there boss man Luke yeah one of just uh I guess honorable mention with Klay he’s not in my top 10 but I did bet him outright this week so I want to say that I I have a lot of love there for Klay yeah next up Victor hin for me who is just starting to play a lot better so a lot of what Spence said a few minutes ago I think apply is here if we can get him at low ownership I’m 100% gonna be playing a Victor hin uh his swing I know it kind of fell apart a little bit um there at the US Open but everyone’s going to fall apart at a course like Pinehurst if you’re not 100% dialed in and at a course like this where it’s going to be softer he’s going to be able to throw some of those darts when he’s in he’s flying the ball to his proper distances he sets up more birdy looks than seemingly anyone else on tour so I don’t know if anyone needs to that much of a convincing to want to play somebody like Victor hind but for me it’s going to be all about the ownership I’m assuming this is just me here early on a Monday kind of guessing what we’re going to see with the ownership and who’s popular but I’m gonna assume he’s close to about 15% if so I’ll buy that oh yeah and I mean if you take a look at where he’s ranked on the draftking Slate versus where you two have him I don’t even have him in my top 10 so I would imagine people and optimizers aren’t going to be going to him because of that also Luke you’re the star of the show tonight tell us why you like Patrick kentley even though he’s not in your top 10 yeah so Patrick kentley for me I’m liking the form and how he’s trending and then the course history is unbelievable if you take a look at his last five starts at this course he has nothing worse than a T15 he’s gone T15 t11 two t13 in a row and then had his best performance last year with the T4 so hasn’t won I guess that’s a a perfectly reasonable um gripe with taking him for an outright but I like riding the hot hand with KL that’s that’s kind of my thing with them which it’s not optimal for ownership he he’s definitely going to be a little bit more popular than I hope but maybe it’s optimistic I’m hoping he’s like 15% too I say that about a lot of guys and I end up being wrong so uh luckily we can we can adapt Wednesday hey but you’ve got the outright so you’ve got the the highest upside invested for him I’m still trying to get the puke out of my back my hair from the Patrick cley rides I’ve been on but you know I’ll let you do that Spencer your number seven ranked golfer is Brian Harman we’ve had a lot of people calling for The Hobbit in the chat there he is if you look at this board and whether I think CLE is going to be very popular like I I I have a bad feeling he’s going to approach 20 to 30% wherever that number ends up Landing in there probably on the lower end of it but you know you get these no cut limited field cont tests and one of the things as a space and and I do think that partially what ends up happening is everybody there’s so much more content that’s being put out like whether it’s your content Byron Luke’s content my content the countless other people out there that release information we are so much better as an industry than we were probably five years ago and a lot of people run things in a similar fashion I do think mine’s a little bit different from just going from a longer extended duration of time trying to get away from all the common answers that are going to be given for a week but you know you look at a lot of these names whether it’s Harmon or you can even put up Byron if you want Keegan Bradley who’s six for me and I probably prefer Brian Harmon myself if if I’m going to try to compare the two together but this is where all the ownership’s going to end there’s course history there there’s the statistical fit for why they make sense I’m not looking to play every single one of these players one of the things I put out in my model every single week is how they’re priced against the market and I think that’s the important thing when you put out a model and one of the things I at least want to mention on here a model is not trying to predict from 1 to 71 the exact order that players are going to finish a model is being put out there to try to figure out how do you rank players compared to other players where are your values on that player compared to the market where is their Leverage that can be created where’s the market higher than you these are all the questions that are the most important throughout the week and I think a lot of times people see a model and you have Scotty Sheffer number one and then Scotty sheffler comes 41st well if you’re building a model where Scotty sheffler is not number one at the US Open last week or at least in the top two I’ll give you that but you’re making a mistake somewhere in the build we’re not trying to exactly predict the leaderboard we’re trying to figure out where we have advantages so you know the first step of the equation is based off of the price if we’re talking specifically DraftKings here or inside the betting Market where do we have value compared to the market and then the second part of this equation that comes into play we get more of an indication on on Tuesday and Wednesday of where are we compared to public consensus in ownership you throw all of that together you figure out where you’re higher and lower than the market that’s how you build your player pool but I can promise you this Keegan Harmon can’t lay Henley there yeah we’re going to have to make decisions there this is not just some clearcut thing of throw them all in in a 71 man field yeah and I can see Sam Burns definitely coming along and joining that gang with some ownership too because he’s he’s been playing some good golf so we’re gonna have to dance around this ownership I’ve got Max homz sitting seventh I’ll be honest I’ll just be betting this guy at top 20 I haven’t really checked out the odds but that’s just what he’s been doing he’s just been repping out top 20 finishes his upside seems very limited since he’s been a dad for some weird reason I don’t know why that’s the case but you know you’ve got another alien in the world now that you’re in control of and and that can sometimes take the edge or the mental edge off of you that you needed in order to succeed in a golf tournament SOI matama number six there for you I had him as the only option without an eway last week and I did five places thank God for mat pavon otherwise I would be on absolute tatters right now because had the only person that finished inside the eway market for me being had and I didn’t have one and I had the top 30 only I would have been crying so luky hit me with what’s cooking over here for Dexter it sounds like a good uh commercial for going out there and playing each ways making sure to do that but yeah I like keki Mama’s form I mean how couldn’t you like it with how sustainable he’s been gaining an all four stat categories lately um really you could put them on any golf course and I think he’d model well if I mean it’s kind of like Xander right you put Xander choffle into any model that you’re running it’s going to be hard for him not to be top five so I think hiim matama is really just playing some quality Golf and I I don’t know if he’s going to win this sort of golf tournament I worry about him getting to 20 under par I normally like playing hii for outrights at courses that are more difficult so last week at the US Open I I think that was a fantastic spot to get an outright in each way on somebody like Hideki this week maybe he’s more of a DFS play for me yes I totally agree and I don’t even have him in my top 10 because I do include a few easy course scoring conditions in my model and I think he definitely takes a bang when a hit when that happens so Spence hit us with why he’s your fifth guy better cash gameplay for me than an upside Target I I would rather play Patrick Klay or havland if I’m placing an outright ticket or if I’m shooting for the you know stars in a large field contest I think for Byron let me ask you this where do you have hii in your sheet oh God I’m gonna have to divulge some oh it’s on the other screen that’s good I’ve got heri sitting all the way so his safety ranking is seventh his upside ranking is 14th for me I feel like that’s a perfect profile for decki so fifth overall for me upside ranking of 15th safety ranking of fourth we essentially have the same output just change the numbers by a little bit that’s what you’re looking at with hii and my concerns with hii are always when we get into this popular Zone with him when he’s over $99,000 and you’re at a course where you have to make birdies those three things together have never really warranted ownership that is what it should be in these events it it just ends up being a little bit too much for that reason I’m probably going to be out on him um in anything that I’m looking for upside yeah and just by the way speaking of safety the last miscut in a major for deim matama was 2018 would you believe that like this guy has just been a model of consistency those Japanese people demand four rounds of major golf and he godamn gives it to them so congrats to him on doing that for the people those Lexus sponsorships really paying dividends I have this is my upside rankings that I have in the model here because it’s DFS I’m not looking that much for safety in a in a kind of a not cut situation so Windam Clark for me when I’m taking 75th percentile numbers of Strokes gained he’s going to show up because his upside is way the hell up there so I think um he’s my kind of guy but hey I’m monitoring the ownership because I do not trust a single thing about this guy’s game right now we’ll see Spence you’re the you’re the Windam Clark whisper or what’s going on the very first outright ticket that I punched this week was Windam Clark at 70 to1 when we’re looking specifically for DraftKings here we keep talking about all these players that are going to be popular you’re going to have to find a name whether it’s a Windam Clark you mentioned Max hom also I I’m not necessarily onom myself but it’s those sort of players that are going to be sub 10% that have legitimate upside and profiles to them that are going to go under the radar that is what I’m looking for we can make an argument with a lot of these options that their price tags might be a little bit too high but they have upsides in the profiles and then they also have the leverage that can get created on the back end of it just because you’re too expensive doesn’t mean you’re unplayable the bad combination is when everybody’s playing you in spots and then you’re not creating leverage I would so much rather find a guy and and Windam Clark for me when I ran it for upside jumped to 11 11th overall for me so we’re looking at a player that high ceiling low floor that is what I’m trying to attack over and over again I’m not telling anybody out there he’s not going to come bottom five of this tournament and implode your lineups and um you know do everything the wrong way but I made this argument Byron a couple weeks ago and I’ve said it quite a few times on this show people play DFS way too cautiously there is such a large amount of rake that goes into these builds and everybody wants to talk about that they’ve Min cached the tournament and you know they’re playing 70% Scotty Sheffer and that’s great and all but when you can have those one or two big scores throughout a season that more and triple and quadruples pays for anything else that you’re trying to do so uh if you’re are minhing every single tournament you’re gonna Minash your bankroll away exactly you need to have a 100 DFS slates in your bankroll in order to play DFS you know the last 100th one is the one that’s going to get you right back into the mix you know so you got to be able to survive the depths of the Despair and speaking of depths of the despair we have got ourselves a Tony fow over here so apologies on that I wasn’t quite paying attention T next all good yeah I’m curious where you guys think the ownership’s going to come in on big Tony because he’s playing sneakily some of the best golf in the world right now gaining over 1.25 shots gained per round approach over his last 12 uh he’s even gaining with the flat stick lately so it’s like bizarre world out there for Tony he went from changing up the putting grip changing up the putter week to week to to now having a legit plus putter which if he’s going to continue to do that he’s likely going to win a golf tournament here now am I expecting that to hold up maybe not so much I mean we have a a track record of him falling off rather quickly but when he’s on this Ascent it it makes him very attractive no matter which way you’re going to model especially some of the short-term stuff and at a birdie Fest like this historically I wouldn’t be a huge Tony fenal guy kind of like aim matama normally their upside is capped however with the flat stick cooperating I think it gives them a little bit more upside than most here it does and that’s the crazy thing and I think everyone’s going to gravitate to what they saw at at the US Open and and something I do want to mention heading into The Travelers we’ve gone Memorial we’ve gone the US Open what the winning score totals were 11 underpar I can’t remember what the memorial was like we are playing these golf courses that are a very difficult and unique set of golf this week we’re going to have – 20 score you know and I think that completely changes the whole dynamic and I think people are going to get lured into some golfers that have shown some good form with the long irons with bogey avoidance this week is a totally different ball game I’m cool fading guys that have shown some really good form that might not translate to this kind of an environment so sorry it just really quickly it comes down to what we keep talking about too it’s the over Corrections and the overreactions to the market that is something that I do every single night when I give my in tournament head-to-head bets out you you get these massive shifts that occur that are just so much and I don’t think for the record I like fenal this week to answer Luke’s question probably lands somewhere I’m not going to give an exact percentage he’s probably a top 11 or 12 owned guy wherever that exactly places him that seems perfectly fair for me it doesn’t take much for me to get on the fale train I have been tipping and touting fenal for what feels like the entire year waiting for this putter to finally turn around then we might be in the spot where he can put everything into one place he was the name that just missed for me he was 11th in my model I think he’s perfectly fine to consider but there are a lot of golfers and we saw with hadwin at the memorial and then all of a sudden he’s overpriced in head-to-head matchups and there was potential against like I took bazan out over him there’s always going to be these overcorrections in the market that just shift everything of what it should be and that’s you know depending on the amount of time that you’re running it that’s going to be exactly what how much of an edge you have but uh that would be one of the things I would be very cautious of just on a weekly basis is try not to be the person that overreacts to one good tournament because once the sports books know about it and once the general public starts knowing about it you’ve lost all the value the the price tag has been heightened into a range that’s further than it should be the outright number shrinks he’s placed in matchups in in territories where you shouldn’t be at that moment those are the simple ways to avoid the traps that end up uh luring everybody in every single week guys if you are watching this on replay please go back two minutes listen to what Spencer just said it’s very very important I think you’re always going to find amazing information on the show Spence is always bringing you stuff that thinking outside the box thinking about ways to get different and how to avoid getting played like a fool because that’s what the sports books out out here to do we here to educate you and try and protect you from cirker dislay you know so we’re gonna go there and hit number four with old Luker and he’s Corey Conners yeah so I’m I’m kind of curious to know if you guys have him in your top four or not I’m guessing you don’t just based on his price tag and all of that my model loves Cory Connors this week he he’s by far the biggest misprice um when looking at my model based on the pricing and I I’m gonna have to get exposure if that’s the case so I’m curious to see if you have him up there towards the top or not but for me it’s he’s the quintessential course fit he’s got the driving accuracy we’re looking for Mid irons he checks all the 125 to 150 also 150 to 175 he’s top 25 in both of those proximity buckets and though he’s doesn’t have the best butter he reminds me a lot of the Tony feno Hideki plays the ball striking floor is among the best that we have in the field but with Cory Connor you wonder if he’s going to make enough putts to get to 15 or 20 under par so he’s not the sort of player that I’m going to bet outright he did finish top 10 here last year a top 10 at $8,400 pays off in DFS so that’s more so what I’m hoping for for Corey if I’m going to bet him for any sort of outright Market I think top 10 top 20 would make sense top 20 because of how consistent he is is probably the best number or best Market to go out there and Target him I guess it just comes down to what kind of value we can get from the sports books his T20 Market is legit the best Market to Target him in Luke and it all it is a little unprofitable at the current moment for the last 12 months but he’s really starting to Trend in the right direction and I think you know that like you mentioned $8,400 is $4,100 less you got $1,900 to get to the minprice golfer between the two differences in prices there between I know we’re comparing Scotty to um to Corey yeah but you get the points you know $4,100 it’s big difference and you’re going to deal with those warts accordingly so I’m totally cool with that situation there Spence you and I both have our guy Colin Mara ranked number four which matches the DK pricing over here hit me moraca was trending in all the areas of his game that he had struggled in for so long and that even includes some of the proximity numbers surprisingly we’ve talked about this on the show this year that what moraca was with his long iron proximity had vanished all of a sudden at the beginning of this year and we’ve seen all of that turn around he’s not going to necessarily have all the long iron proximity this week with all those shots that are coming in from 175 and within morawa is going to win something soon I don’t know if that’s this tournament I don’t have an outright on him this week I don’t know if it’s this tournament I don’t know if that’s the Open Championship this is a legitimate golfer that is trending in the right direction with all the metrics you want to see and when that ends up transpiring the pieces always get put together at some moment and this feels like a nice course fit for him so I have him fourth and then just very quickly on the Corey Connor’s discussion I guess I misspoke on feno feno’s 12th for me he’s 11th for upside Cory Connors is 11th so he is the first name that missed but the one thing I want to say about Connors we can talk about the Putter and how he doesn’t make putts that’s going to be the common answer that everybody’s going to give I ran something in my model I I this is just like the basic explanation of it it’s essentially expected total driving geared specifically for this course and then taking the primary proximity zones that you’re going to get and merging those two categories into one expectation of how you’re going to be able to take on this property compared to the field Cory Connor is for me second overall in that category really if I remove putting from the mix he would Skyrocket for me and that’s something that maybe I’ll have to go back and do to see what happens when I remove the putter but this probably would have been a top five or six play 100% if the putter was not put in for my weighted Strokes gain total for 30% of that area yeah it it’s exactly that and and the thing is like you can take any amateur golfer and make him hit a putt I think there’s a good chance it goes in more so than taking any amateur golfer and making him hit 175 yard approach you know like the luck fact like the fact that you just have to putt it you know like it’s so easy to hit you know versus having to hit at 175 yards so I’ve got a Colin marawa 16 to1 I popped in the Discord this morning I’m the closing line value runup King and he’s sitting at 12 to1 right now after the RAR WD he’s going to win a tournament Spencer told me so it’s happening this week let’s party baby let’s party so I can’t wait for Corey I mean Colin to win this tournament this week at 16 to1 you’ve got him third hit us me to the list of people with a c War CWA outright now 16 to1 I wish I got that number I got 13 to one only one book available down here in Florida unfortunately yes hard rock bed unless H we won’t say it but yeah 13 to one for the the legal sports book down here um but yeah took him at that number you know it’s not the best it’s not the 14 the one that I saw a few other people getting but the guys do for a win I hate to say that but if anyone has the stat profile somebody that’s due to pop off and win it’s call Kawa guy has been in the mix time and time again around the green play used to be a huge hole for him and now it’s seemingly a strength putter has become a lot more consistent I mean he’s not always gaining a bunch of strokes but every you know one of three events he’s seemingly going out there and gaining four or five Strokes it’s a very very attractive stat profile and just like a Corey Connor a Russell Henley he’s the quintessential course fit here so I am a I’m a huge buyer on him and add me to the list of people that think he’s gonna win this week I know the Heartbreak is imminent and looms large but hey you know this is what you sign up I’ve got the five places we’ll deal with it that way I love the fact that the long irons are out of the equation essentially this week while he’s still working on getting those dialed in the short irons are golden the short game going to come in hot you two have got the same golfer I believe ranked number two he’s not the number two ranked golfer in the world he’s the number one you two have Scotty Chef Luke what’s going on over there yeah so that that should be a surprise to everyone out there when I saw Scotty was at number one I was surprised with my own modeling out there uh it’s more so I think a a statement about how good the number one golfer ranks for this golf course A lot of it comes down to Agronomy that’s really where I think he separates himself from Scotty shuffler potentially the bum performance at the US Open is holding them back just a little bit but if we look at my projected fantasy points if you take a look at all of that projected top five rate all that Scotty is still the number one golfer of the world world so I’m uh I hate to Hate to say that he’s my number two guy there but there’s a there’s a good reason for it when we talk about our next ranking hey there’s there’s modeling for a reason and we trying to find an Eda so if you think that Xander this week has a reason to be played Spencer tell the people why that’s gonna happen all the upside numbers of my model and Luke just explained that very well like same thing for me they’re all going to push towards Scotty Sheffer being the number one golfer and he cracks number one for me in gpp upside when we look at Strokes gain total over a two-year running duration of time and I made this argument whether it was with you last week byon I I went on a show with Pat Mayo I made this argument with him I pretty much gave this narrative over and over and over again there are three players on the PGA tour that have separated themselves from everybody else Scotty sheffler 2.54 Strokes gain total over a two-year running perspective Xander 2.10 I ended up eliminating Rory from my sheet I want to say Rory is 1.9 something but it’s those three and then you have oberg 1.40 Colin moraca 1.35 Hadi Klay phenow Fleetwood Clark havin Henley like those are all the names that surpass one with a couple other included with the gala home that’s the entire range that’s going to give you one or more I have lived under this mentality all of 2024 here that Xander’s lack of perceived win equity in the market continues to push us into this range whether it’s for DFS contests or inside of the betting board where the market is lower on him than it should be I ended up betting him at 8 to one I usually don’t go this low down on the board that’s the one reason why I didn’t end up with the Colin morawa ticket is because I decided to be very aggressive and bet Xander shle it’s very important to note and Luke talked about the Agronomy and everything with that not all courses are built the same there are certain venues that will accentuate strengths and weaknesses of players Scotty and my expected Strokes gain total for this course did get hurt quite heavily by the putter Xander ended up grading number one overall for me in that category that was enough for him to propel himself just passed Scotty from an overall rank the upside yes it’s a different answer Scotty’s the favorite to win this tournament but I think we’re in a spot here where because everybody has this preconceived notion of Xander that you add an extra win to him you’re starting to see how this Strokes gain total and all these stats are much closer between Scotty and Xander than the public seems to believe Xander’s going to in my opinion win something else and potentially something very big at some point this year it’s kind of the same answer I gave about Colin Byron and you know that’s one of the reasons why that 16 to one price that you got and even the 13 to one number with Rory being out of the field I think those are very enticing routes to consider but it’s whether it’s here it’s at the open it’s at one of these tournaments I think Xander’s about to pop again and if you would just have added one win give them the players championship and see what this outright number would have opened at I can promise you it wouldn’t have been this price absolutely dude and if you think about what he the hell he got up to at this open he lost three and a half Strokes in his first seven holes on Saturday or Sunday and he also hit one out of bounds like on this golf course you know like he’s he did some of the most bizarre things and still finished inside the top 10 thank God because I’ve it’s the only 40 to1 ticket I might hit this year is the top 10 on xan in all four majors you know like I think this is the world we’re living in his flaw is like touching the ceiling right now and it’s incredible it’s it’s really really impressive stuff if we want to talk about catching every lucky break throughout the tournament I thought Xander ran the opposite of that there were about three or four shots that he hit that on any other course he would have stuck to three or four feet and just with the nature of that course the ball didn’t hold the green it rolled back 30 or 40 yards and he ended up producing a bogey in a lot of those spots he was much closer to winning that golf tournament than people believe with it and um that was one of the things that I talked about on Friday night when I ran my expected win Equity moving forward with it and there were five players that were substantially above everybody else four of those names stayed in the mix including oberg and that for quite a bit of time with Klay Rory and Bryson the one name that took himself out of it early on Saturday was Xander but because Xander did that it puts us in a very nice spot here to be able to go back to him and I think he’s going to be popular I don’t think we’re getting an ownership discount on him I also don’t really care in this spot this is just one of those situations where I’m going to be higher than the market and I’m going to aggressively play him in DFS contest I talked about the outright which just goes to that exactly dude and I that’s the thing is there’s certain guys but the fun part is I thought Scotty sheffler was that dude that was a KH missplay last week and all my lineups sitting on the left hand side of my screen beg to differ for the US Open but you know you got to take your stance and as long as you’re over the market and over over what the waiting of the field is you’re looking good so that is it for the Top 10 rankings let’s dive through some guys in the in the other tiers here because the majority of our guys we’ve ranked are not going to find themselves in the top of the board Gourmet or cray cray let’s start in the 8K range here just for some poops and Giggles so your favorite play Luke in the 8K range Gourmet or cray cray favorite play for me Cory Connor so he actually was on my Top 10 rankings which surprising that he we’d get one of these guys up there in the top 10 yeah he’s just fits the golf course perfectly that off the te play those proximity buckets he he checks for me so yeah definitely Cory Connors Spence Co May cray cray AKA range probably Harmon or Connor’s that ownership’s going to dictate which direction that goes cray cray I will say here here’s the answer that I’ll give about Jordan spe Jordan spe’s Ball striking is starting to turn around I don’t think this is the venue for him we’re getting close maybe the Open Championship ends up being one of those tournaments where we get that coming out party for him again I talked a lot about looking for players in my model that were over and underachieving their Baseline and one of the ways as anybody who listens to the show knows of how I do it is I’ll take the actual ball striking statistics and then I’ll blend that in with the Baseline around the green and putting stats that I have for that player just to recalibrate and give us a reprojected leaderboard Scotty Sheffer Jordan spe Tommy Fleetwood those three guys after every single day should have been far exceeding what we were getting from them I do believe spe is about to turn it around and I guess that’s a weird answer to give because I don’t think anybody’s GNA play speed this week so I don’t want to say like if you want to take a shot go for it type of deal but there were just some problems in my model specifically for this tournament but I I think we’re getting very close for him potentially hitting again yeah I’ve always said you ride the Speed Roller Coaster alone or you don’t ride it at all because when you throw up on yourself you only want to throw up on yourself don’t let other people’s throw up throw up on you too because that’s what the Speed Roller Coaster is all about also coming from last week where it’s a bit more tight lies less resistance unless you in the weed grass I feel like his wrist injury not as big of a deal at those kind of venues this week with the thick lushous stuff you know hacking it out of there granted his his drive has just been exceptional so he’s likely going to be from the Fairway for the most part but the the magic we’ve seen from speed in the short game department overall has been missing lately if that shows up the ball striking is ready to party man so I’m totally in agreement with you there Spence I love Tom Kim this week this dude heading into round four was lapping the field on approach and then just kind of imploded very sadly on Sunday but this dude is Young he’s hung he’s ready to do his thing and I’m ready to party with Tom Kim man he’s $8,100 this guy’s won multiple times on these short courses Sedgefield TPC suin three times over there and mind you he’s turning 22 only later this month so Tom Kim is my cray cray price at $8,100 which a good CR crate if that makes any sense there for me uh yeah no no I continue your thought Byron I I’ll get back to the Tom Kim thing at the end Spencer I actually didn’t know where I was going to go I was busy trying to find a name that I could cling on to there so go ahead and hit me with your Tom Kim stuff so normally I don’t have this many players that are a DraftKings value in the $8,000 section you you’re going to get a couple names that are going to fall further down the board it’s just the nature of the game here and you get a limited field contest and you’re going to have some players that are going to be value I had five golfers for me that were a value in this $88,000 range it’s going to be five very popular golfers and that’s where I keep going back to where you have to make a decision but Keegan Bradley Russell Henley Corey Connor uh Brian Harmon Tom Kim all of those guys should have been more expensive and really that takes over for a lot of these golfers in that low $99,000 range where I would have swapped those names to make it work with it but I thought there was a lot of really interesting values to be had in that ,000 range but the problem with that answer being given is I’m not the only person that thinks that I I see that right now with the projected ownership all five of those guys probably land inside the top 20 own players so it’s just something to keep in mind as you construct the lineup to where you’re going to have to figure out a way to differentiate a build um if you use too many of them together I forgot to sneak in my cray cray but my mine was Jordan Speed too so just I guess Circle back on that and I’m I’m a huge spe guy I’m like the biggest Jordan Speed truther there is I I bet this guy almost every single time that he plays and I’m worried about him I he’s doing things well that he doesn’t typically do well like the off the te play for example um Putter’s been a little bit hit or miss this year but surprisingly enough his short game around the green play has been a little bit off which at this course I don’t worry about as much more of a birdie Fest more more so worried about the putter than anything with him I I think that when he figures it out that he might be a better player than he was before before if he truly found something off the te and he can get back to what he was used to doing he’s got I think more upside now than what he had before but not in this current state so that’s why he’s my cray cray Luke you you spot on man like that’s the thing like uh m is winning Jordan Speed was I don’t know if he was driving the ball this well you know like this is some Sensational driving and it’s his dad strength that he’s just got you know you pop out two little cherubs and the next thing you’re just nuking things off the tea and I think he’s answered to extra distance was I’m just hitting it harder which that was an answer like two years ago maybe he’s been working out a bit more but like he just showed up I don’t know we just started nuking it and yeah we are so you know this is the thing maybe us three can ride the Jordan I’ll I’ll throw up on the two of you and I’ll let you two throw up on me as well we can all do this together if we’re in the mood but we all have to have a pack that it’s okay so um we’ll see how that cooks over there in the sevens boys Spencer hit me with your cray cray and Gourmet options in the seven K ranges the volatile route for Gourmet would be the Windam Clark discussion that we had that’s the Boomer bus potential of of if you’re really shooting for the moon with it but the safer option that I’m going to give and you’re G to get a price reduction on him also do think he’ll be a little bit popular is JT Poston at 7300 there were 10 golfers for me I ran seven main categories this week they encompassed a lot of different data that fit into that build there but there were seven categories that I ran and I took the top uh 30 golfers from each one of those categories and anybody that didn’t land in the top 30 got removed from the sheet so there were 10 players that landed in that range the worst player outside of JT Poston and this is just on a price scale answer of it was Corey Connor is at 8400 JT Poston was the only player that was not 8,400 or above that landed on that sheet that’s pretty much everybody that I’ve talked about that’s inside of the top 10 of my model for the most part this week outside with fow fow would be I believe the lone exception to that answer but Poston for me is a name that I bet him at 100 to one I don’t know if he actually has the win Equity to take down this tournament my model seemed to think so because he had the positive trajectory for upside but there were a lot of Statistics inside of my sheet that I really like them for this course yeah uh the the chat is going nuts with the throw up gifts in there so shout out to you guys by the way this chat has been amazing so Luke you’ve brought I don’t know if you I don’t recognize too many other folks in here but there are some serious names that are showing up in the chat yeah and they are puking all over the place over there so you guys clean up the chat okay we don’t we you leave it how you found it please um we don’t want that place dirty it’s only dirty on the show over here um big fan of the JT Po and call there luky what’s going on with you over there in the sevens yes in the sevens my Gourmet option is sep straa so might as well call him the diet coke uh play of the week whatever we want to call him here with sep straa but if you look at my com courses this week he is unbelievable at the com course it’s where almost all his top finishes come through so I’m looking at TBC Southwind he lost in a playoff to Wills Al tourus there a few years ago also has had a few other top finishes there um short par 70 water and play a lot of similarities to what we have this week cognizant Classic Honda Classic of course one there also another top five finish another top 10 finish on top of that so another checked box there just another it’s more positional off the tea you have some layups around that golf course which is another parallel to this week also a lot of water in play which you could say that about Highlands on the back nine and then also John Deere he’s played well there he had that one Sunday um where he almost went out there and stole the damn thing and then just in general off the T play one of the most accurate players on tour this year he’s number two in driving accuracy and if you look at the proximity buckets 125 to 150 150 to 175 kind of like Cory Connor he just fits the course I don’t know what it is about Russell Henley Cory Connor SE straa who else can we say this about there are a few other guys they all have the same exact skill set they are accurate off the te they H the same sort of iron shots well they’re usually Hit or Miss Putters as well and I like all those guys this week it’s all guys we refused to get out of the 2019 2017 era of golf before distance became Paramount you know but you know what at the same for sep Big Boy you know you should be able to swing like me cuz you know but also I’m not that good of an you know but whatever you know I’m just saying like you you see guys like this Brendan Todd 6’4 164 mower ball speed you know like what are we doing you know like I don’t understand some people just refuse to really let the games analytics come to them you know but they also lean into what they do best and stick with that these are PJ T professionals repetition is what got them to the situation they’re in and you know what we are we to rarely tell them what’s up but we are also experts at this stuff you know analytics sep straa last week at the US Open was my fate of the week and that wasn’t just an answer because of the price tag that he was I made a note that I thought that that was a fair price for him and that’s kind of what we ended up getting at the end of the day look at the ball striking that he put together though 5.4 Strokes off the t+ approach he lost 5.2 with his around the green game that was my exact concern of what would happen with his around the green game I thought it was going to be worse than that because some of those long iron proximities were the worst portion of his game I was afraid he was going to miss a bunch of greens and regulation he was gonna have problems getting up and down and he was gonna miss the cut that did not end up happening at least to that level that I thought it was going to when he missed the Green in regulation he imploded on himself this is a much better spot for him the ball striking remain from last week I I’m back into him being a top 20 sort of a play for this tournament um it’s a it’s an interesting price here at 7900 for arguably maybe the hottest golfer in the world outside of this 8,000 and U range that we’re GNA actually get a potential on like I can go on and on about how much I like Windam Clark’s upside to take down this tournament but if you compare him to what sep straa is doing stra is actually producing at this moment so I I have no issues with anybody who wants to go to straa this week this is not the same fate spot that I thought of last week you know you are just preaching to the beautiful choir of yes Spence I’m big fan of sep had me my farewell Fiverr on I think was Friday or Saturday and he took a triple after hitting the flag you know like if that just lands next to the flag it’s a birdie or a paw that’s a three shot swing you know landed up being the only person that lost by one shot like just incredible stuff you know like how how unlucky is it that you get a flag and take a triple like granted he absolutely nuked his his around like that bunker shot was atrocious but I don’t even know what the lie was because the ball like rolled in from off the green into that lie you know it’s a very awkward situation big big fan of sep Bei is my guy in this range golly this dude has been hitting his iron so well we can see him really dial in on the on the putting surfaces if we get some B greens you know that’s what we rocking and rolling back home so Bei in this range $7,400 if we get the irons if we getting the accuracy off the tea let’s party with him big big fan of his situation in the Sixers boys as we wrap it up over here we’ve had lots of guys talking about Brendan Todd we’ve got some other options in this range Luke hit us with your Gourmet and cray cray options in the Sixers so Gourmet option for me is Victor Perez $6,500 and he he actually models as my number 13th ranked player this week so he’s he’s one of those guys like Cory that’s popping way more than the probably should part of part of that’s the form you take a look at the last 12 measured rounds that guy is playing like a 8K golfer let alone somebody down here in that 6K range and he played well at horses that are pretty comparable to what we’re going to get this week so if we take a look at his form um where’s he at $6,500 here uh I’m on the wrong tab okay that would help out here with doing this live so he went T12 T3 at two courses that are relatively short or rely on driving accuracy I don’t know if I’d call Memorial short but much more of a driving accuracy course than distance in my opinion and then the RBC Canadian of course I think very comparable to the conditions that we’re going to get this week and he nearly won that golf tournament so I I think that the price is way off he he should probably be like 73 7400 I don’t think he’s like he’s an 8K golfer by any means but still should probably be in the 7K range and then for cray K cray cray I’m not sure if anyone’s really missed price cuz they’re like in the 6K range if we want to do it cray cray in like the opposite fashion like they they should be more expensive maybe Ben griffin based on his form at $6,800 I guess a Davis Riley you could say that his form’s been solid I don’t think it’s a good course fit here but based at $6,200 Price Tag seems pretty crazy to me yeah dude the this range is entirely filled with really good options to really break the Slate with you and trying to navigate these guys is going to be imperative because with Scotty with xanda at the 11 12 uh 125 112 you’re going to have to there’s going to be people rostering both of those dos potentially you know and and potentially two 6K guys so it’s going to be important to find your dudes Ben Griffins very interesting man if he calm courses this this guy is popping pretty hard for me in that range so Spencer what’s cooking with you in the 6K range for cray cray and Gourmet for me cray cray will come down to ownership it’s hard to call anybody cray cray in a 71 man field where we don’t know where the ownership lands right now so um you know we we’ll see where that Trends over the next couple days there are three golfers or the three golfers I’ll name who they are that are the best values for me on the board and we’ll do this from the $7,000 range and just top 30 golfers in down here um JT Poston would be the best value that I have on the board the second best value I have on the board would be Justin Rose which is going to be my answer for Gourmet at 6900 and then I Byron I don’t know why we keep falling into this trap with Adam Scott Adam Scott is a value for me every single weekend I can’t seem to get away from it but I I like Adam Scott here when we look at Justin Rose so you’re gonna have the back-to-back miscuts to me the simple solution to this is at the memorial that was all undone by a poor Thursday he got it together on Friday it was just too little too late then you look at the US Open and he misses the cut but he ends up he misses it by one shot he grades inside the top 50 for me and projected scoring after two rounds when I go back to this Baseline statistics that I’m talking about of adding in the Putter and the around the green game he was inside the top 25 for me and expected total driving plus primary proximity zones I thought he was one of the better values to consider here where this recent form or the lack of recent form that he’s bringing to the mix is one of the reasons why he’s priced as low as he is it’s a very similar answer that I would give for Adam Scott these are two names that always seem to pop up on my model and you know there’s not been a lot of results this year where I have felt super comfortable with backing them but at 6900 I am more than willing to take a shot in this field yeah that’s you got to you know it’s a 71 man field ownership’s going to be pretty pretty high for everybody so trying to find a sub 5% option is going to be key you know like I think you can find a a reliable guy in that range is going to be very important my gouret is mataan I feel like this guy whenever he whenever he starts firing the Farmers Insurance and then Pebble Beach this guy just did his thing maybe his gamees back and at $6,800 we know that this I mean this guy was hanging around in the final group of a US Open he showed up on tour this year from the DP World Tour like talk about an astronom uh meteoric rise to to start him from a noname you know like he was in my kft guys article you know I didn’t even know who he was so crazy to see him doing his thing the guys in the chat Milly talking about Lucas Glover I mean talking about a ball striking Beast who cannot putt that is your guy you know like even with the broomstick it’s he’s just sweeping up nothing at the moment so tough scenes for him over there but I’m also going to mention Sheamus power boys at a golf course like this short positional venue if this thing was being played in Bermuda he’d be like 75% out I’m just kidding but you know what I’m saying like this is where this is where he thrives and I think big big Sheamus fan I think he’s going to knock around some some serious Lumber this week and and looking forward to seeing what he can do we also had someone mentioned about Davis Riley not showing up at the US Open he literally won the Charles Schwab did that not get him in or where the hell was he yeah that’s a good point where was he like maybe he didn’t get in for winning that event maybe it wasn’t one of those automatic qualifiers I I’m I don’t know exactly what the rules are for these things but I know that these second tiered events in a couple spots have been not getting certain players I don’t know if got up I think he did play too well yeah I I don’t know I mean there’s just been yeah I don’t know there’s just been like weird things of players not getting in for certain reasons of stuff like you’re qualified for elevated you’re winning events and some things and you’re just not getting in elsewhere so I I’m I’m not sure yeah like how is min Le not getting into Signature Events he he didn’t start off the year very well and by very well wasn’t playing a lot of golf either you know like at venues like I made a I get these things wrong so often like why did minwu not play in Mexico and before he played the cognizant I was like why are you playing cognisant instead of Mexico like Mexico is a perfect foit for you goes and finishes second at the cognizant like you know like that’s just the thing but he’s so talented he should have been playing in more tournaments he just hasn’t been you know and I I think he thought he might have thrived a bit better hasn’t quite happened um gonna need him to take care of business at the Open Championship though if he’s even in that thing you know so um we’re gonna have to rock and roll there but Byron I have a fantasy golf team we’ve talked about it before it’s not for the fsga one but in a league with Nick is in the league uh Tommy Stokey from stochastic like there’s a bunch of different people in it I have the worst team that’s ever been created in the history of a fantasy league um minwoo is the second best player I have on that team I never have enough players for these elevated events like this week I’m starting oberg Hodes Rose Scott and Brendan Todd with a bench of G her up and web Simpson like I don’t have options on this team this team right now is in second place I am convinced that fantasy golf has absolutely no skills based off of this it’s it’s the B Team they’re just getting it done with Mr s and and all sorts of random things man I I don’t know and that’s the thing golf is so Random you might want to take a flyer on thorbjornson just hope that after he gets his card he just like goes off because you need someone to get into these events I mean unfortunately like our waiver wire is super thin he’s already on a roster he was picked up wow six weeks ago with somebody who had the foresight I I did that last year with oberg and I think I was just so done with the league at that moment that I was like I I don’t really care and I wish he was on my team it’s for anybody out there that’s playing that is very good advice I would pick them up if you have the potential to I did that too I have two leagues I did that I was like this kid might just be a stud yeah I picked them up in the fsga league that Byron and I do together in two separate leagues I got him like after I saw somebody grabbed them six weeks ago I’m like I’m not going to make the mistake here I’ll grab him five weeks too early yes shoot your shot man these these guys coming out of college is like they’re just incredibly talented and they they’re hitting the ground running way like literally sprinting compared to what guys have come out of you know their their situations in the past so Luke thank you so much for showing up with us man we really appreciate you I love your stuff and please tell people where the heck they can find all nine of your shows this week yeah absolutely I appreciate you uh having me on guys it was a pleasure talking uh of course my YouTube channel is GS Luke DFS that’s where we’re going to be doing all of our shows main show will be Wednesday at 700 p.m. Eastern so if you want to pick my brain a little bit make sure to stop un by to that but a lot of my content is posted on my patreon page as well which is um in all my content in the description of that so feel free to check it out if you guys want yep Luke’s description uh Luke’s patreon account is in the description below I don’t often say that on the show so there we have it Spencer get us out of here buddy yeah as everybody knows you can find me on Twitter at Sports you can find Byron at the model Maniac we have a lot of content over at Roto baller we cover everything from top to bottom whether you’re looking for DFS betting oneand done contest our models are available I don’t know if we want to do a giveaway to to close this Byron you know what we’re GNA do is just post show we don’t get enough post show comments comment in the show I I pay attention to the comments we’ll do what what’s our giveaway going to be Spencer we we’ll talk about it afterwards stay tuned we’ll retweet it out we’ll do something that we’ll do a giveaway in the next little bit perfect till then how about we go and say who’s going to finish dfl this week you guys let me know in the comments below first person to let me know who finishes dead freaking last uh for a root baller PG situation there hit us in the comments after the show not in the live chat we need you guys to generate and hit that like button hit the subscribe button get this big old YouTube Cog churning for us so that we can really really go to the Moon with you all so let us know who’s going to finish dfl in the comments below thank you so much for making it to the show use code tof use code Maniac over at Roa if you’re in the mood to join our premium side of things there we really would love to have you guys so much till next week we will catch you guys next time
7 Comments
DFL Webb Simpson
If you don't count Rory
Adam Schenk DFL
Really appreciate the love for Todd… Luke is a stud… thanks for everything guys
Dfl – Justin thomas
‘sup?. you made pro edition~ 😉
Luke 🙌
Great show with 3 of my favorite content creators! 👏