DFS Golf Preview: US Open 2024 Fantasy Golf Picks, Data & Strategy for DraftKings

DFS Golf Preview: 2024 US Open Fantasy Golf Picks, Data & Strategy for DraftKings. Ben uses the Stokastic PGA DFS data to break down the course, tournament field, and best PGA DFS picks for the US Open 2024.

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00:00 PGA Strategy
1:00 Course Preview
3:00 Top Tier
10:45 Midrange
21:30 Salary Savers

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#USOpen #PGADFS #GolfDFS #FantasyGolf #USOpen2024

what’s up everyone Ben Razzi here for stochastic I am here to talk little Us open Action the PGA World take Center Stage we’ve got the third major of the year we’ve got everything we got drama we got Pinehurst we got Wire Grass we’re going to talk about all of that and more most importantly we’re going to break down the tools and try to make some money a lot up for grabs in the DFS world I’m glad you’re here I’m excited we have some cool stuff I will get to it in the video I want to welcome you in though if you haven’t seen this channel before all things DFS from golf to NBA MLB obviously when NFL and college football get here place you want to be take a look around if you like what we see subscribe to the channel but let’s dive right into it we got a lot to get to again it is the US Open we know what we’re getting we’ve got a strong field a ridiculous course and every opportunity to break it down so where do we start let’s start with the course Pinehurst number two heard a lot about it we’ve seen the you could check off on your bingo card we’ve seen the Twitter video now where the guy drops the ball and it rolls 500 yards off the green and everyone says this is ridiculous a tail is old as time I’m sure it is going to play very very difficult there’s no doubt about that what do we need to take away though in terms of what we’re going to see here so step one from what I’ve gathered uh driving is going to be very important it seems like you can be very aggressive off the te it does you don’t have to be a bomber but with these Fairways you know if you have the ability to Club down I guess you could and obviously you want to be in in the Fairway but getting a short iron in your hand seems important it’s the age-old I would prefer my guy to be long and accurate off the tea not that simple total driving though not a bad stat to look to want to be precise with your irons it’s it’s an all-around test uh traditionally and I’ll be doing this again it’s to me impossible just to lean on GRE Greens in regulation you need to be able to scramble around the green is going to be important because you’re going to get into some uncomfortable lies you’re going to miss some of these greens and you can’t just be making triples making quads when that happens so I will look for around the green and you’re talking about Bermuda greens uh in terms of the putting they’re going to be very very quick all of that stuff I don’t think you need to be one type of player in terms of distance it does allow some of these you know second shot type players strategic thinkers in for me though I’m G to look to the driver good good short game would help but really an all-around battle uh obviously Bermuda splits would help not minding uh a winner of you know five under something like that I think could be very very important but I’m not going to change up a lot of what I’m doing it looks like the course could be baked out uh could could help the the shorter hitters in terms of the runoff and things like that let’s dive into the field it’s not about that we can get a cursory look at the course there’s a ton of information out there on that I don’t think it’s as important as what we’re doing with the field and it starts with with the guy who won last week and the week before and the week before and just he wins every week that’d be Scotty Sheffer 13,000 almost feels like an an underprice it’s insane uh that’s just the world we’re living in right now you know we I’m taking this early on a Wednesday the these information kenon will update but I think we’re in a pretty good spot here he’s going to be extremely popular we know that how popular I think is Up For Debate um you know 30 40 50% maybe in small Fields things like that there is nothing to say about Scotty sheffler except for Game Theory you know if you’re saying I don’t want to have a guy that popular in a high variance tournament that’s probably the only thing that I see that you could go to is optimal percentage is gigantic he’s the best player in the world and it’s not even particularly close he’s automatic off the te he’s automatic with the irons his putter has been much better lately he’s gained Strokes put in six of seven that’s going to be a problem for the field chefer makes for a great play we all know this you’ve got Rory I don’t think I think it’ll be a little more popular than we have on the screen right now uh you’re saving $900 Rory hasn’t been bad by any stretch um but it’s not to that level he won it well as Fargo 12th at the PGA top five in Canada and then he was 15th last week he’s been great with the short game his irons and his off the te game are strong they’ve always been strong they haven’t been domination too often they were at Wells Fargo and we saw what happened uh so you know your dealer Choice up top you’re going to get a discount to Rory in price and ownership he’s not playing as good as Sheffer uh and and we all know that now let’s sort first of all I have the let me sort by salary here so we can do this in order okay we’ve got Xander and Bryson two other players obviously that can be your first guy in they’re going to be very aggressive second man and how do I rate them honestly not a strong take on either I’ll let the Sims and the tools do the work with those guys I’m sure I’ll get them in the pool because I would like to have various outs there you’re talking about a $1,500 difference between Sheffer and Xander you’re talking about a $2,900 difference between sheffler and Bryson Bryson is not in a in a dead zone it’s just that ROM with Drew so you do have a big bump down uh between those guys Xander 115 and then Bryson’s 101 so I want to talk more about Bryson than Xander Xander is he broke through he’s got a major he’s playing really consistent Golf and he does a lot of what you want he’s reliable off the te he’s got a well-rounded game good putter no no issues with Xander not making any hot takes up here I think Bryson is by far the most volatile you told me one of these four get cut I would say it’s Bryson uh because he’s just the way he plays very scientific we know all that he was awesome at the PGA he was good at the Masters as well he’s got a US Open I’m sure he’s going to have a plan of attack and that’s kind of what I’m getting to if it works he’s gonna be right there if it doesn’t though we’ve seen you know Bryson if you look at his Us open history miscut 25th 31st first 26th 56 20th it’s like a big mixed bag and a lot of you know average at best finishes uh and of course those are all random courses since this is a rotational so for me Bryson ownership feels about right I’m sure he will be in the pool makes for a more balanced guy uh in terms of what we’re doing but I do think he’s less likely uh to really pan out than than the big three that I’m calling him now we one more in the 10K range is Brooks for me he’s on the outside looking in it’s nothing that he’s done wrong I mean he’s been a major killer for many years and US opens was a focal point of that just don’t know where the game is at we saw him at the PGA and you know he kind of blew up and melted a little bit came in 26 made the cut at the Masters but did nothing uh you know he won the PGA in in 2023 and he’s playing on live as we know just like Bryson so with him I’d say he’d be the lowest of the five we’ve talked about but he also has the lowest optimal percentage and I agree with that he’s gonna get squeezed for May now let’s go to the balance builds or your second man in you’ve got guys like Victor Holland ebear morawa uh you know can’t lay who’s playing terrible golf Windam Clark so let let’s start to break it down we’ll start with hland interesting because one he he’s looking like he’s gonna have some ownership behind him and I get it he of everyone we’ve talked about and we’re going to talk about in the short term has a glaring weakness unlike most of these other guys they’re all very well-rounded Victor havin is not a good around the green player he’s not even close to an elite around the green player he’s just straight bad it’s a struggle for him it’s a paino for him he has gained once around the green uh in 2024 that’s not going to get it done it was at the PGA and he came in third I worry about him on this type of layout certainly his ability to drive the ball and and just just overpower any course is electric but man it’s a tough ask when you know that you’re going to have some tight lies around these greens he’s going to have to really step up and improve if we want want to see him compete for this type of price tag a bear this is what I’m talking about I like him a lot this week I think he’s a really not Darkhorse winner we know he can win uh he’s got no experience at any of these tracks and it just doesn’t seem to matter he was second at the Masters he was fifth last week at Memorial the injury woes I mean I’m not a doctor it seems like it’s not that big of a deal right now though he played last week and from everything I heard no issues he’s 9600 electric driver of the ball a better around the green player than havin we’ll see you know these are these are conditions that he may not have faced many a times you know he’s got no US Open experience but he’s that good uh I think you can start with him I think you could be your second man in ownership’s going to be reasonable on him I don’t expect it crazy because morawa is right below him and morawa is a guy that a lot of people are going to look to I I expect him to be a pretty popular Win Pick and I get it fourth at the PGA fourth at Charles Schwab second at the memorial he’s burning the edges and the reason that there’s a lot of reasons why to like him but one of them has to be that his irons are returning he had lost significantly with the irons for quite a while uh he was negative in five of six then he gained over three at the PGA over four the Charles Schwab and he gained over five at the memorial on the approach that is colum morawa at the height of his powers he’s one of if not the best iron players in the world when he does that he’s going to be tough to stop so I get it at 94 you could definitely start with him and go very very balanced I’d say that’s probably doubtful for me we’ll see when I run run the Sims uh what the lineups look like but for me most likely morawa will just be a standard play second man in pair him with one of the 10K options or go a bear and morawa like that throwing out Klay if he beats me he beats me throwing out Clark if he beats me he beats me it’s not to say these guys aren’t talented they can’t turn it on but of the guys up top their form is by far the weakest you see it in the ownership you’re talking about potentially sub five% guys crash into the 8K range here with JT cam Smith maxom Tommy Fleetwood uh this is kind of to me the start of the mid-range I will say and I want to say right off the top before we get into it I’ve already alluded a couple times to what we’re looking at in the data Hub and The Sims I’m sure you guys have heard about it obviously we have these for every sport these Sims are the real deal you’ve seen the screenshots you’ve seen the success running the simulations the customizable ability it is a game changer I have integrated it into my process uh as many other people have it has not revamped my process it’s just been an enhancement is absolutely worth it and to celebrate of course it’s the US Open we had to do something and we did we did something very cool I’m going to bring it up on the screen right now if you haven’t used these Sims before or we’re offering it for a week for PGA $4.95 that is a gigantic price break the code is Pinehurst it’s only valid this week so the link is below when you get to that checkout use that code Pinehurst you can see all of this in action that from the data Hub the post contest Sim to the pre-contest Sim all of it for 14.95 it is worth checking out and see if it makes a difference in your process no better time to test it than a major and again it’s all right up here you see this stuff different sites Showdown it’s all there for you and truly I can say it has helped me uh be a better player doesn’t mean you win every time of course that would be nice if we invent that tool I’ll let you know uh but gamechanging stuff code Pinehurst justtin Thomas what to do what to do I can’t get him right I’ll be honest uh that’s more on gut feeli liked him a lot at the memorial and I got what I wanted he was electric with his irons and he could not buy one he could not buy a put he lost another three and a half Strokes putting I do feel like the game is close he’s made four straight cuts uh he top 10 at the PGA he missed the cut at the Masters uh so it’s been a rocky season for him probably not up to JT standards 8900 reasonable ownership I will be over on JT cam Smith a lot of the the discussion is going to be this can you survive off the te well cam Smith is the key player in all of like I’m gonna just leak Strokes off the te and still get it done he did it at the Players where he won going away despite losing a ton of Strokes off the te he’s done it numerous times in his career one of the best if not the best short game players in the world he top 10 at the Masters uh of course he won an open a couple years ago I’m okay with Cam Smith normally that’s a fade for me not a big cam Smith guy but when I look at the the upper eights I have JT ahead of them but if I can allocate 10% of my portfolio to a guy like cam Smith we’ll see where this ownership goes I will gladly do that not much to say about hom pretty indifferent Fleetwood he never wins let’s be honest I would know because I bet him all the time on the outright Market but he’s very reliable he’s playing good golf there’s no doubting at an 8500 he’s going to be a popular play he’s probably cash viable he really does seemingly make the cut every week he’s only missed one cut since March 20th last week 21st in Canada 2 six at the PJ 13th at Wells Fargo peppering that top 20 of the leaderboard and you might sign for that in this scenario uh him Fitzy fow decki spe Hatton Lowry and theala that’s who’s on the screen right now I like this range a lot I’m going to have lineups that that have like two or three of these guys if I had to rank them I’d go Fleetwood one F now to Fitzy three Dei four uh if ownership was equal that Dei would be elevated a little bit but he’s going to be the most popular of the bunch he really thrived in some difficult conditions at mirfield Village last week came in eighth at the memorial his short game is quietly really good one of the best around the green players in the world we know what he can do at hard courses he thrives for that it’s not going to bother him he’s an objectively bad Bermuda putter at times I do worry about that but you could say the same about a couple of these guys certainly including a guy like Tony feno who’s another bad Bermuda putter but he’s playing good golf and then Fitzy who I thought really showed something last week I like where he’s at he was fifth at Memorial it was mostly with the short game but he does that um if he can just clean up the irons a little bit Fitzpatrick is a great tournament play this week I’m actually a little surprised to see his ownership that high I’m hoping it comes down on the next run because to me he’s a positive leverage play that I want to get to so you’ve got a good range here I think skill set Stacks start to come into play you know if you’re going cam Smith Someone Like Jordan speeded you know makes a lot more sense uh if you’re going really really aggressive off the te you might look to to a Tony feno or someone like that theala uh who can be very very aggressive at times and a good score you think it’s like crazy conditions in the win and stuff maybe a Shane Lowry factors in hatton’s over on Liv but he’s been very consistent I think he’s a pretty standard play at 7,800 in the pool not a not an aggressive take and and at the US Open I do think there’s more of that and I I try not to do it on videos because when you get done and you’re like what did this guy just say he just said he everyone is like pretty standard and he likes flee Hood like what is that um but for the US Open there is an element of that my my player pool will be slightly bigger I will have more nuanced positions of guys like Hatton where I don’t make a crazy stand might have 10% 15% and it’s just a very small position uh we’ll see what the ownership runs look like but for me a lot of these guys in this mid-range deserve to be in the pool but let’s keep scrolling uh obviously it’s going to start to thin out this a tournament Centric area from cam young to DJ Jason day uh I think he’s pretty interesting at 5% minwoo Tom Kim Corey Connors Sam Burns Bobby Mack and sunjay so I think that Cory Connors will probably be a guy a lot of people look to in small Fields he doesn’t miss Cuts he gains Strokes off the te without being crazy long really good iron player he fits a lot of what you want to do he could get absolutely eaten alive around the green and off uh with the putter we’ve seen that at times with him but he’s getting you know certainly better in those areas he’s got plenty of major experience uh he’s been absolutely terrible at us opens and that’s probably the biggest knock on Cory Conor had no success whatsoever just a string of miscuts so you look at that is there an inherent flaw in his game is it variance is it some bad luck probably a little of both to be honest when you look at the rest of the range there’s not as much ownership to go around minwoo Tom Kim guys like that I think their ownership’s going to come down a little bit I’ll give a shout out to Jason day his irons have been weak but he knows what he’s doing with the short game he’s OB obviously played in a bajillion of these top five at Wells Fargo virtually automatic with the Putter and that’s when he was at the height of his powers he was a great putter I think we’re starting to see that more and more with him once again but the last guy on my screen is the guy I want to talk about the most sunj M I really like the spot for him I bet him at over 100 to one he’s a good Bermuda player he wanted Honda which is another Bermuda technical layout and a difficult one at that he was ninth in Charles Schwab he was at the memorial he’s gained off the te in every event since March 3D of the classic he’s gained Strokes putting in three of four his irons are hit and miss but he’s not bleeding severely there well-rounded game really good price at 7100 core play for me in sunj M benan right below him another South Korean Justin Rose Ricky who Shot 14 over last week that was very bad Henley norren Scott Harmon burer SE woo different types of players here uh benon his off the te game has really really improved this year he is getting it out there so if you think driving distance and things like that matter you can look to him he’s a better around the green player than you would think his putting has improved it’s still a liability at times Alex noren uh you know it seemed like he was building to that elusive win and it certainly didn’t get there uh at Memorial he he came in 2 second but not much to say he was good with the putter bad with everything else he had missed the cut in Canada which was a little disappointing he’s got to find a way to get back to that ball striking so if I’m in a jam and he pops up I think that’s fine certainly not looking to get to any of these guys in massive numbers similar to Jason day though I’m gonna give a shout out to Adam Scott He grades out pretty well looking at these tools uh we have them projected for 5% ownership right now optimal percentage a little north of that top six percentage is solid again these are going to update but he’s got you know a couple decades of experience at us opens he doesn’t miss many Cuts he’s only missed one cut since the beginning of March and that was at the PGA very reliable off the T it’s the putter he’s lost in four or five with the putter everything else in his game looks solid he knows how to navigate these tests and I think that this type of challenge of what we could get we’re posting you know under where posting even is a very very respectable score I think that helps Scott he can lag putt knows what he’s doing if he doesn’t get destroyed by the greens he will make this cut and he will be a fine play at 6,900 rest of this range you know see wo he’s another guy he makes more than his fair share of cuts as we scroll down Keegan that’s going to be an off the tea guy if you want to go there Denny McCarthy that’s going to be a putting specialist if you want to go there man uh thing I want to point out right now look at these ownerships minimal minimal minimal and you see whoa what is this and that is SE straa 6500 obviously when pricing gets released for Majors it is done early because it’s such a big week they want to give people a chance what it doesn’t do it doesn’t bake in what we just saw and SE draa came in fifth at the memorial and so he obviously stands out is a really underpriced play because he’s playing really good golf he’s got four top 10 in his last five events the miscut at the PGA is surrounded by a fifth and eighth a fifth and a fifth so he has just been dealing his irons are great his T to Green game is very solid another guy that around the green is probably the biggest liability so if you think that doesn’t matter maybe you pair him with hlin you go like European flavor and nons Scramblers but Seb straa is going to be the most popular play in this range certainly viable if he is 18 to 20% I will not be able to get leverage there that is a lot for a $6,500 player he comes down a little bit sure uh let’s see what we can get because the opportunity cost is not great but there’s so many pivots potentially uh you’ve got batia Fox kittama who was awful last week Aaron Ry is here hting Glover tiger don’t play tiger please EVR Cam Davis those are pure scores so when I get down here I start labeling guys not for basically their salary or anything but more skill set like okay these are my bomber options these are my short game Specialists because you’re not going to find well-rounded players in the lower sixes for me I think Aaron Ry makes sense I think Lucas Glover makes sense Lucas Glover got experience his putter many times lets us down that’s everywhere though that’s not going to be unique to Pinehurst missed the cut at the memorial lost four strokes putting at Charles schwabb he gained six Strokes putting and he came in 12th he made the cut at the PGA he made the cut at the Masters he was 11th at valpar a technical tight layout Lucas Glover can make this cut not going to be popular whatsoever don’t need to allocate a ton to play him that’s exactly the kind of play I want down here scrolling to the bottom of the sixes Christian bazid hoot my other guilty pleasure you’ve got a South African here who has a style that can really translate what is it world class around the green game and world class putting fantastic specialist with the short game he has made every cut since where are we going end of February beginning of March he missed the cut at the classic and he missed the cut C at the PGA so he’s missed one cut in like three months at the PGA he was fourth at the memorial 17th at Charles Schwab he has gained Strokes around the Green in nine straight events that’s just stupid now what’s the problem well when you when you’re that good of a short game player if you had a good driver you would be Scotty sheffler Bez does not drive the ball well can he survive off the te at this type of layout it’s a big challenge at Wells Fargo he was bad off the T and he survived Quil Hollow he came in 16th he survived that valpar off the T he came in ninth he survived off the T at Saw Grass for the players he came in 13th he can do it he just has to find a way to really be crisp if we get a good iron performance Bez is going to blow this price point out of the water there’s no doubt about it he also looks like he’s going to be the most popular in this range hadwin had a really good showing last week Chris Kirk is down here McKenzie Hughes is another short game specialist we start to fall off pretty quickly Victor Perez and pendrith uh are names Mark hubard is a cut maker but this is a big step up obviously I’m not going to have much here this is where you’re really going to be drawing thin you know that any allocation is going to give you leverage on the field Last Man In Style if I don’t have to go into the fives I won’t but if I do what do we do okay so a couple names to point out David Pak over on live talented player he’s a 22-year-old Spanish player if you want to bet purely on talent I think you can do that uh we don’t know a ton about him or at least I don’t in the sense that he doesn’t have a ton of experience he’s playing on Liv he was third and live Houston um he missed the cut at the PGA again this is the type of stuff we’re gonna have to read between the lines I don’t think that that’s the craziest player in the world though if you want to bet on the talent Adam senson shank is also there which is fine but to me senson is the play in the upper fives the guy makes Cuts say what you want about his placement points and they’ll come if you can just tune up the putter a little bit but he’s working on made cut streaks uh really really been solid he was made the cut at the PGA came in 43rd he was 27th last week at the memorial he’s gained off the T in five straight he has lost Strokes putting in four of five and that is the big problem he doesn’t really have a preferred surface I don’t see anything crazy with his Bermuda splits and I think that’s probably pretty noisy but when you strike it this well I think he can hang in here I know it’s a guy that it’s been a paino but you’re talking about a $5,900 player in a Range that’s really devoid of any stability whatsoever there’s no ownership associated with it uh we’ll see how he grades out but to me last man in it would be senson over guys like Dunlap or Sig Justin laow Harry higs Martin kimer the defending champ at Pinehurst not going to be going there either it’s pretty bad in this range let’s get to the last page here and again I do want to say if you have any questions at all jazz rdfs on Twitter we’re doing all sorts of things uh you know bets DFS whatever I can help with happy to and and speaking of betting real quick if you do like golf betting head over to OD chopper.com I’ve got all my content over there got tools the pics the Discord it’s all part of it and if you’re watching this video on Wednesday which I assume you are we are if you go to a chopper.com there is a banner that says $1 flash sale because we’re running a sale there you can get a week of a chopper for a single dollar because of uh Little Home Run action we had last night the code is Dinger all in the info below and it is over on on chopper.com so a lot of just fun things in the stochastic Community right now and we want to help we want you guys as part of the team where do we go here I I honestly think the answer is don’t don’t go into these ranges uh if you see someone and you’ve got a line on them and you say this is why they can make the cut more power to you I can guarantee you some of these guys are going to make the cut but more of them are going to shoot 15 over and they’re just not going to be pertinent uh Mr Pete fish is down here okay I do like to scroll the names just for my deranged self to see who these people are Auto black is here John chin Colin Prader yeah I’m I’m not going to be doing any of this so my drop dead price is going to be in the upper fives you know I I think I’m not going to be going below that shank senson type ordeal and for me I actually want to stick in the sixes if I can uh there’s just so many so many different ways to build here again the tools will do the work for me I’ll smooth it out I’ll probably man manually boost uh a couple guys for me you know the sjs the fites fow Fleetwood certainly up top it’ll be a mixed match a bear guy I want a lot of senson Scott you know I rattled them off in the video but those are just some of the plays that come to my mind when I think I what I really want to do and you know my final thoughts before I bounce out of here he appreciate everyone hanging out with for a half hour with me as I talk through this work backwards that is always to me the key in Majors if you think the winning score is like over par that should really change your player pool if you think that this is overblown and the winning score is going to be like 15 under that should change your player pool that’s a huge boost to greens and regulation to iron players I think it deemphasizes scrambling uh and things like that it’s really about how do you see the tournament playing work back find some leverage points spin the wheel hopefully hopefully get lucky at the right time that’s really what it’s all about but I cannot wait to see this course I I obviously I love the Masters I’ve been really excited for Pinehurst though I think this is a great venue it’s going to produce a lot of drama and I think it’s going to be a very very exploitable DFS week I think there are some edges that we can get to and I’m gonna take my shot and see what we can get bounce on out of here though again appreciate everyone Jazz Raz DFS shout out and the final thing I do want to leave you with is this the 1495 deal don’t wait on it it’s there for this week it is worth a try and if you enjoy it I hope you stick around make some money and if you do please tweet us we want to celebrate that I want to see those avatars at the top of the leaderboard hopefully mine included but for me for Sheffer in the field and for Pinehurst number two US Open about to tea off good luck everyone thanks for coming here at stochastic we’ll talk to you soon [Music]