2024 Travelers Championship Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | 2024 Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 Travelers Championship Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
1:58 Course Flyover/Notes
8:02 Course Stats
11:16 Travelers Championship History
20:51 Stat Model/Field
30:08 Comps
33:35 Spike Putting
35:10 Guess The Odds

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ENT of may experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code Mayo with Underdog fantasy right now will get you a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks Travelers Championship picks and research and Hell we’ll even try to guess the odds on this one if you loved watching the US open with all of your favorite starss in a hard competition you’re going to love the traveler Championship with a lot of those same names but not all of the best names because the live guys obviously can’t play and none of the scrubs that you saw in the field in a much easier course in the Northeast just outside of Hartford in Cromwell Connecticut 69 players in the field this week it is a signature event which means that it has no backing of Tiger Woods Jack Nicholas or the estate of Arnold Palmer so there is no cut at this event so you’re going to get all four rounds out of everyone unless it’s like Hideki and he withdraws which I would be on the lookout for because you never know with that guy but it does seem like everyone at least right now is committed to playing in this tournament a final of the troa of signature event major in signature event a horrible part of the schedule in terms of what’s going to happen to some of these other tournaments like when we talk about the rocket mortgage next week when basically no one is showing up to play in that one and then it’s overseas for the Genesis Scottish then the Open Championship then the 3M the Olympics and this is like the last like big stretch that were happing hopefully the US Open went really well for you obviously I’m recording this before the conclusion of the US Open so I do not know what is going to happen on the Sunday hopefully it’s fireworks if my guys can’t win I want Bryson to win or Rory to win but we’ll see I mean think I don’t think that anyone is cheering for Patrick Klay so you can almost like pencil him in as the winner because that’s just what happens with these things but good luck to anyone who has live tickets live lineups whatever it is out there let’s get to the course at TPC River Highlands TPC River Highlands the shortest course so far on tour this year even shorter than Pebble Beach at least of the official listed scorecard that we’ve seen it’s another Peach die track measuring just 6,841 yards the courts Bast eight power fours measuring between 400 and 450 yards while playing as a power 70 there’s another two power fours coming in below 400 yard as well the most notable being number 15 a drivable 296 yard hole that over 90% of the field goes for from the T box so regardless of distance guys are going for it there’s a lake on the other side that you can put your ball under the water in but you can still potentially get it up and down from power from there so it’s not really a risk reward it’s just a reward type short power for you know the good ones with its minuscule length TPC River Highlands opens the door for almost any style of player that’s how you get a Dustin Johnson and Brennan Todd duel in the final group as well as Bubba Watson and Shez Rey winning in consecutive Seasons you got to be on fire with your approaches and you got to make your putts looking back at the top five finishers over the past seven years it’s clear that regardless of driving distance approach and putting as I just mentioned are the two most important factors at the top of the leaderboard as is the case for most courses that become birdie Fest off the tea has been twice as important as around the green and players hit almost 70% of Fairways at TPC River Highlands against a PGA Tour average of 62% that is the third consecutive week we have seen a course with over 70% hit Fairway rate so be on the lookout again on Underdog the moment tea times are released we cleaned up very handsomely when those lines got released on Tuesday afternoon for the US Open everyone besides Hideki hit their over so if the eight leer lost by one the five leer cashed immediately I played some three played some four played some two just cashed in bigly everyone who jumped on those ones early cuz they all got boosted by either a fairway or a fairway and a half even at some spot so if you do see that the number comes in at like nine n and a half eight and a half for some players just pound the highes on Underdog on those because they will all eventually be N9 and a half 10 10 and a halfs by the time that those lines get beat into place because that’s what they should be so be on the lookout for that got to hit them early if you’re going to hit them so the big hitters don’t even have to dial back with their drivers basically the golfer who can hit their wedges the closest is going to win that is this entire game at TPC River Highlands and looking at the plotting on approaches thanks to Fantasy National which we will dig into here in a minute fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off you’ll see the plurality of irons this week come from 175 and in that is the opposite of most courses when you have a course that’s not even 6,900 yards that makes a lot of logical sense right one thing to consider when looking at the past events is the change in the greens for years the bent grass putting surfaces were some of the slowest on the PGA tour four years ago five now actually they were reconstructed with bent grass and a POA mix and the greens now run on the faster side of things as we’ve seen the past few seasons and well this is a Pete die track there’s been considerable crossover between the top of the leaderboards in the Valspar Championship Riviera and Phoenix over the years those are all Keegan places by the way so I really should have just thought about his name when it came up and it goes beyond him and bubble Watson who won three times at Riv he won three times at TVC River Highlands before he made the jump to become the captain of the range goats over on Liv Paul casy had a ton of success here did it with Dustin Johnson Kevin stelman and Jordan spe both won the valpar and travelers in their careers I don’t really know why maybe it’s a shot shaping issue but there are a lot of players in the week who have experienced success at all three of those courses but because this is an elevated event now have rarely played in The Travelers Championship digging a little a little bit more into the scorecard the par 3es the average distance is 189 yards three of the six toughest holes on the course all three of them carry a sub 13% birdie rate with two of them seeing over 18% of the golfers make bogey or Worse Keegan Radley won this event last season and half of his Bogies for the week came on the power 3es he only had four bogeys for the entire event but still you two of them came on par 3es actually sorry three of them came on power 3s the power fours as I mentioned there’s eight of them between 400 and 150 yard the average distance is 416 yard the three toughest holes on the course are all power fors number 4 10 and 17 all of which have an overpower rate of 22% whole 17 can undo you a 5% Double Or Worse rate keegen played that hole at one under during his win last season the top three finishers a year ago com combined to play that hole even helping them keep reasonably ke clean cards and some pretty big paychecks cuz it was a signature event last year as well the two par fives average distance of 549 yards the two easiest holes on the course which isn’t surprising although whole six sees 88.5% of players actually come in overpow which is kind of crazy to think about they make de bogy or worse than that but an eagle rate of 1% 35.1% birdie rate for uh number five and then when you get to number 13 there’s almost a 3% Eagle rate and almost a 40% birdie rate although the bogey percentage is around 12.5% 4.4 double or worse so it is possible to make some bigger numbers on these holes last year Keegan and Haron birdied at least one of the par fives in each round well Zack Blair didn’t do that he was the only one of those three to record an eagle he did it on 13 during the final round played the final six holes at five under to earn his share of second obviously he’s coming in and having a pretty good US Open but he will not be in the field this week and in terms of the draftking streak as we jump over to Fantasy National right now and take a look at the scorecard you’ll see that there are getable three hole stretches on both of the nines but if we’re talking about going front to back or back to front playing the course in order is the way to go because you can see number 10 is the second most difficult hole on the course with a almost 20% bogey rate almost a 3% Double Or Worse rate only a birdie percentage of 11 % whereas even if you swing the other way number 18 has a 16.3% and then number two one of the easiest holes on the course and then one and three are both on the easier side with birdie rates of 16% and 18% and hell you can make Birdie on number 17 that difficult Par Four but it’s only a 15% rate with a bogey rate of 177% the lowest birdie rate on the course uh is number four and five but those don’t factor into it and then after that it is number 10 so playing it front to back if you’re playing Showdown is probably the way that you wants to go you can see the top 10 finishers you know big on putting big on approach then off the tea then around the Green Let’s shrink that down a little bit more and we’ll take a look at the top five finishers and it comes even a bit more pronounced basically a stroke per round on approach a stroke per round putting and you know half a stroke per round off the tea and you’re Off to the Races ball striking outweigh short game here amongst the top five finishers beat up on the power five score on the easier power fours be on your way you can see there’s those eight holes uh that are on the shorter side then you actually have two that are below 350 again only one of them is drivable and here’s what I was talking about before in terms of the average shot distribution so you’re going to have your approaches on the power fives come in from Beyond 200 yards that’s really where this number comes from and I believe one of the power 3es yeah number five number eight are both Beyond 200 yards so they’re getting that’s where the proximity from 200 plus is getting soaked up very 10% of shots from 175 to 200 and even for some of the bigger hitters that probably comes into play on the par fivs for them but everything else wedge Fest that’s all you’re going to see this week uh the cut line I guess it doesn’t really matter because there’s no cut now it was three under last year usually under power you’re going to see a lot of birdies this week The Greener regulation percentage is almost 70% driving accuracy 68% so right around 70 uh you’re going to see some low scores the the average not the average but the I guess the mean score here is around 60 eight so 200 under per very few three putts cuz the greens are a bit on the smaller side only 5,000 square foot greens and driving distance a little bit lower because you can dial it back if you want to and you don’t need to but if you’re going to get into wedge range anyway you might as well dial in on the accuracy unless you’re Bryson on I guess Bryson’s not playing so it doesn’t matter to him when he finally put the driver back in the bag on I think it was 15 on Saturday and he got booze from the crowd he asked him not to boo for not taking out the the smoke wagon ended up hitting a he end he ended up missing the birdie PPP he just like hit his I think it was a four iron maybe it was he doesn’t have a four iron it was a five iron he ended up hitting that right into the native area to the wire grass and ended up putting it to 8 feet anyway for birdie miss the putt but if he just went at it with the driver who knows what would have happened let’s take a look at the tournament history from what we’ve seen this has only been an elevated event I believe for one year cuz yeah in 2022 who won Xander won yeah that’s when he went on his run of backto back wins cuz he won the Genesis Scottish open the next week but last year Keegan Bradley in a bit of a runaway as well like he was just Keegan to lose the entire time you can see he wins by three and let’s see here yeah he wins by three clear of Zack Blair and Brian Herman he was tied for two after the opening round and opened up a big lead with 62 63 64 start Blair with six shots better than himit on Sunday but it really didn’t make that much of a difference and how didd he do it exactly what we said before 7.3 on approach seven putting nothing really anywhere else there’s obviously different ways you can Cobble that together but that’s really the one that you want to go with Scotty was right there in terms of T green but just didn’t make enough putts to truly contend ditto for Alex SMY that week as well um overall it was Keegan Haron Blair Scotty Shez who had been a previous winner here and Klay Rory Denny SMY minwoo Corey Connors Justin Thomas those that was everyone who finished inside the top 10 only Connors and Thomas lost Strokes putting anyone who finished and Russell Henley lost 0.1 Strokes putting that was everyone who finished inside the top 30 that week only three of them dropped Strokes on the green Justin Thomas was The Biggest Loser of them all but that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who has watched Justin Thomas putt let’s take a look at some of the proximity ranges to see if we can glean anything else from that Bradley was the top putter of the week well three of the top four Putters did cash top 10 paychecks and you can kind of see this 150 to 175 100 to look at 100 to 125 everyone gained on the field except for Grio and Shane Lowry inside the top 20 if we just kind of sort by that of who gained the most it was Tom Kim but he was kind of disastrous in other places couldn’t make a putt to save his life but his approach play was dead on Tom Kim we’re going to throw him on the list as an early favorite just to see go back in time a little bit and try to check out what Tom Kim has been up to we can see his some of his proximity stats here coming in we’ll take a look at the travelers from last year yeah there it is we’ll take a look at his what went wrong for Tom Kim a year ago because how do you hit your approaches that well but where are we at with stroke scan here there we are stroke scan how do you hit your approaches that well and come t38 in a limited field there you go you lose two strokes around the green you lose you lose two strokes around the green almost two strokes on the green that’s just not going to cut it but T green even though he lost two around the green was still fine approaches were quite good and we know that he’s been playing better golf coming in over the past 3 weeks or so we take a look at what he’s up to obviously he’s having a pretty good US Open we’ll see how that turns out on Sunday you know he was pretty good TD very similar performance but worse at the memorial two weeks ago what he did at Travelers you know good approach good off the tea miserable in the short game at the Canadian open he did very well across the board so we can get his putter rolling you maybe he doesn’t maybe he can’t contend with these greens at all but the second time he’s seeing them might be a little bit easier for him but I like the way that his game is going at the moment but this yeah 100 to 125 you had a fourth place finisher fourth place Finisher 1 n94 all and five all inside the top 15 um and then some of the other guys we see they probably pissed it away in other spots where you see Ryan Blum was great there but terrible one from 125 to 150 terrible from Beyond 200 yards you just can’t do that it was very similar with Hideki as well maybe this could be a decent Hideki course I don’t know will Hideki make enough of his putts will he even compete or will he suffer from Roxberry Syndrome from listening to what is love too often and hurt his neck once again or smash it just like will frell did in the movie if people remember that movie from the late 90s Love nther Rocks who does Richard greo jumping like 21 Jump Street in here so that’s what happened last year so the years before that I mean that’s the only elevated event we can point to the year before that you have Xander schafle ended up winning he was T3 after day one he open with consecutive 63s tied for the round of the day on Friday he was the fourth best putter in the field for the week gaining almost eight strokes and seven of the top 12 Putters for the week cash top 10 paychecks putting can save you here five of the top 12 finishers lost ground off the tea and approach but made it up with putting in 2022 2021 Harris English was the winner people should remember that with that lengthy playoff over Kramer Hickock that was just went on and uh it was the playoff that would never end he shot 68 or better in every round during the week he had a 65 on Sunday the top four Putters of the week all finished with at least a share of fifth place including a crazy week from Bryce Garnett where he lost off the te lost three Strokes on approach and gained 14 Strokes putting but he is not in the field I don’t think that Garnett is in the field no he is not in the field this week so sorry Mo to take a hike I think I bet him at something thing recently and he was just an absolute travesty I think it was the Canadian open actually he was horrible it’s probably why he’s not in right now Dustin Johnson won in 2020 this was the best outright betting stretch of my lifetime coming out of covid we had the guy Burger ended up winning it Colonial coming out of covid then we hit web Simpson at The Travelers then we hit Dustin this week and Dustin’s odds had fallen down to 20 or 25 to1 and he was dueling with the Todd father for the longest time Todd ended up coming t11 that week but it was a 61 from Dustin on Saturday it was the spike round that he needed to get inside of the top four mck Hughes opened the tournament with a 60 will Gordon posted a 62 on Friday DJ was the fourth best putter of the week and 10 of the top 14 Putters for the week finished T1 or better if you gained anything off the te and you were a top 14 putter you gained inside the top 11 in cash a very nice payday coming out of that in 2019 that’s when Shez re off a great week at Pebble Beach at the US Open CED nothing worse than a 66 through 3 days he just coasted with a Sunday 69 beating Keegan Bradley that year by three no what did he beat Keegan Bradley by four he beat him by four him and Zach Zack suture and Keegan Bradley tied for second place you can see Brian Haron here four top 10 in the past five years only 2020 coming out of covid is when he was cut so I would expect Harmon to be a pretty popular pick this week even in an elevated event field you can see uh much like last week we kind of pointed to sass a lot of good sass players here both Pete die courses so that does make a ton of sense the year before that nice cash on Bubba Watson beat Paul Casey Stewart sink JB Holmes and Bo hosler by three Strokes that year and he was just 6363 Friday Saturday and just started to run away with it um and he ended up coming back from six down on Casey who had led through three rounds Casey got stuck behind a tree at one point and just couldn’t end up closing the door on bubba Buba was just making everything that week so who else has played well here over the past 5 years now some of the guys don’t have a lot of experience at this course because they just simply were not playing it before it was a signature event because they didn’t have to and it didn’t have a lot of pay today but you see Klay Hermon Keegan Xander Rory have been the best five players over the past five years and that includes only three starts from Xander and three starts from Rory every Rory finish has been inside the top 20 including a t7 in 2023 in 2022 obviously as I mentioned Xander won that year Harris English has played this very well obviously has a win on his card Jason day M Hugh Sam Burns Victor havin in only three starts th Gala in only three starts but that’s mainly off the back of his T2 in 2022 ditto for JT poen for overall consisting it has been basically the Brian Harmon open over the years and Klay has one top 10 finish in the past 5 years but no finish worse than T15 he’s just been very middling here but that’s worked out quite well for him over the years let’s take a look at the full field again only 69 players the only outlier that you’re going to see here is Michael Thor bordson is in the field he was number one in the college ranks now that the college season is over and the number one player in that ends up getting their PGA Tour card for the rest of the season the other guys go to the corn fairy tour so we’ve seen Michael Thor beon as and the reason that he’s in this isn’t because he won it it’s because he’s played with The Travelers and played on exemption multiple times he actually played in this field last year as a signature event and played very poorly however the year before that he was fourth at The Travelers more to do with his putting than anything he played the John Deere last year ended up coming inside the top 20 and he has played the Dubai Hero on the DP World Tour each of the past two seasons including this January I think that I can’t remember if that’s one that Rory won or Fleet would won but they Rory played in both of them uh he ended up t11 this year he I believe he was t18 the year before that dude’s a real player and I wouldn’t wouldn’t be crazy to see him play really well this week or even he’ll probably end up playing in Detroit the week after like you probably want to be looking at him right away we’ve seen some of these guys come in and make an immediate impact we’ll see where that ends up going for him but we’ll see how that goes Travelers good at the top in terms of a stat model and we’ll take a closer look into how this model is going to work ball striking 25% approach 15 off the T so just an overemphasis on ball striking par fours gained overall 5% par fours 400 to 450 10% par five’s 10% opportunities gained 5% proximity 100 to 125 150 to 175 125 to 150 throw them in there we’re going to boost up 125 to 150 is 6% a little bit putting 5 to 10 10 to 15 at 5% so we’ll just Chuck that in and see how that goes see over the past 12 rounds who comes in hot obviously we don’t have the US Open sets oh this guy Scotty Sheffer he ranks out to be number one okay it’s good to know he’s a good player should probably bet him Xander havin moraa Connors is the top five then you have Rory feno Keegan ludvig benan as the rest of the top 10 hogi straa Ben Griffin Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Kim at 15 after that it’s Hadi Justin Thomas Sam Burns Austin eot and Russell Henley that is the entire top 20 if we take a look at that key range the 100 to 125 that we talked about a little bit earlier Bez is there and Bez has also been the best player on short par for so we’ll throw Bez on he didn’t I mean we bet him this I bet him this week and played him a ton on DraftKings as I know a lot of you people did as well I wouldn’t say that I actually have no idea how he’s doing on on Sunday if he’s even teed off yet he’s not having a bad week at all it’s just he never really got himself in the tournament he’s right around that top 30 right now which would cash one of the Best Bets if he can get inside that top 30 by the end of the week the rest of his approaches from that level are not great though so if we’re looking at guys overall in the short term at least who have been excellent from that range oh hogi maybe I should go back to hogi here I I I didn’t hear a peep of him at the US Open I don’t even know if he was in the US Open maybe he wasn’t he was he finished a plus eight he missed the cut so so he’s well rested coming in that’s a narrative that I can spin on that but Sheamus power and Tom hogi are two of the players that do the best across all three of those key like wedge range is that we’ve seen so does Scotty Sheffer no surprise there Jake knap actually does really well with them so it does oe Poston Lucas Glover kitama does okay as does Lee Hodes is it does it remain Lee season how did he do when we all bet him that one week you was T45 at Memorial man that’s a bad bad off the tea there and bat off the te at the Charles Schwab he can just hit some Fairways here it feels like he can take off the tea out of play a lot what happened to him I I thought he was like doing okay that’s hogy Hodges oh yeah 7777 on the weekend we’ll do that to you so maybe we should be looking at him more for Detroit against a top end field like this maybe it’s not the best look let’s try to like expand this range a little bit so that’s past 12 R that’s very short term let’s go past 36 and kind of take a look to the beginning of the year till now and to see if anything changes with some of the names that we’ve already talked about in terms of the wedge look at Scotty 11 one one11 46th in short putting 15th and reasonable size putting 11th one six yeah Scotty’s going to win by a billion if he decides to like bring his aame which he seems to do Glover top 10 in all of those proximity ranges you see Grio has been Nails top 20 against even these guys in two of the three Connor’s been very good so his Henley so his btia overall sheffler as mentioned yeah sheffler and Glover kind of seem to be the guys here anyone else as we scroll down not really kittama gets better when you take the 100 to 125 out of his hand so it is Mor CWA longterm but morawa has been a lot better recently from that range and that range used to be like his range so past 36 rounds we take a look at it not much has changed at the top of the rankings you got sheffler Xander Rory ludvig Connors havin hogi OE Colin and Hideki into theala benan Henley cam young feno Bez is number 17 Burns eot andc woo Kim this be this should be a great seiw of course but dude just doesn’t putt poor guy I feel like sewo got screwed at the US Open not that he was going to win but he played in the either the third to last second to last grouping off the course on Friday and he was at one over like he was right kind of in the mix to potentially make a move on Saturday he was playing with sunjay and they played number nine last and he had a fantastic shot at number nine but everything was so baked out late on Friday that his ball just it could not hold I don’t know how he could have hit it to hold the green he hit it high it should have landed soft but it just skipped off the back and then you he hits the putt up the hill it rolls back to his feet he takes double Bogey and then he’s in at three over and then he’s absolutely cooked for the entire tournament which sucks and that happened a few times I mean getting good breaks is a part of winning major championships especially a US Open like this one it just it sucks when you’re watching the guy in real time get such a [ __ ] break when it comes down to it either way you know that happens uh let’s take a look at the rolling model I I don’t think that anything is really going to change that much but you know we can always try to see see if there’s a a few names towards the back end that we can find that are pretty pretty good here so this is the rolling model for travelers so with all things being equal on this front so we’ll go last four drop down last 100 to basically nothing we’ll go 50 a little bit higher than four 24 24 closer to 12 so 20 30% for last 12 24 for last last 24 13 for last 53 for last 100 1319 for 4 and 8 we update that and you know it’s going to tell us Scott he’s number one in all of these Xander Victor Colin Rory are the top five I mean they might be the top five on the betting board as well so that the shouldn’t be shocking Connors wh Connors feno straa hogi ludvig are the rest of the top 10 when we look at it this way benan Hideki the gala Bez so Bez continues to rate out really well as does Henley but Henley at all these elevated events opens at 40 to1 every single time to encourage you not to bet him like for whatever reason the books love Russell Henley and I get it they’re probably seeing what we’re seeing right here and thinking that like if he play this out 40 times he’s probably going to win that many time like he’ll win the one in 40 times even against a good field like this because it sets up so well for him Ben Griffin OE Fleetwood Victor Perez eek root and hadwin do pretty well down here there’s Tom Kim Davis Riley’s inside the top 30 so so we Glover and kittama spencon and sunj it’s going to be a tough tournament to locate these guys at the very end hogi being inside the top 10 is interesting to me I I never thought he would play well at a US Open anyway but he needs to get that putter back on the good side of things and how has he done he plays The Travelers every year has never really played it especially well has no finish better than t35 and that was in 2017 has gained on the greens only twice in those 10 starts terrible around the green some of the approach over six on approached twice but that was like a decade ago I’m not big the biggest on course history but that is not super encouraging when we look at it although hogi has showed up at spots earlier this season where he had been playing like ass in his career and played really well how has straa played The Travelers if he has ever really played The Travelers terrible on approach but his approach play has been off the charts awesome I mean the ho in one at the US Open on Friday we’ll skew that a little bit but I think that he was first or second in approach on Thursday as well he just could not make a putt to save his life then he got really un he was not rewarded for an excellent shot when he made that triple bogey on the front nine on Friday as well when it hit the pin he ended up making triple so maybe straa this has been a spot where people have trended towards wins a lot of the time like even looking back to Keegan last year he just been playing good golf coming in Shez had been playing good golf everything was kind of rolling for him played had a great US Open traveled across the country boom he ends up getting his win at this course Bubba was kind of I mean this is one of the Bubba circuit courses but even to look at that guys who have just been playing well coming in is a lot of the time what you want to look at let’s try to look at that some of that crossover the three that I mentioned the valpar so Copperhead in his book in his Brook Copperhead what I say TPC Scottdale you can probably click on the Pete die filter for this as well if that’s something that you wanted to do and Riv just those were the crossover ones that we had noticed you know Bubba courses Dustin courses and maybe they’re just so much better than everyone else in these fields when they played them that’s why they ended up doing so well but it doesn’t hurt to take a look at them just in case we can find like a a comp course name or two that can pop up on that list I have this over the past what 36 rounds let’s go 24 rounds for this one to just to see what’s going on here Strokes gain total on average sheffler oh boy Sheffer Klay Burns Xander will zalot Taurus would be the top five Nick Taylor okay could this be one of the niiki te courses cam young hom sahith Dei spe JT havin Fitz Kate Taylor Moore stroke per round at those types of courses obviously he won the Valspar take a look at how he’s done at The Travelers over the years D Tree I I don’t think he’s ever played in The Travelers Jake knap I doubt he has ever played in the Travelers but has played well in four rounds I believe that was at Riv earlier this year Keegan is up there as well Harris English who is a winner at this event there’s hogi Bobby Mack okay Davis Riley Eric Cole and Ben Griffin are some of the other names to throw up there shank and Tom Kim Sheamus power as well it’s funny to see Sheamus power raid out really well in terms of what he had done from those wedge ranges to see if he can kind of keep that going he’s had some like the approach play at Wells Fargo was really good the the approach play at Heritage was really good now that’s Pete dor so that makes some sense the approach play had been really good until Memorial I don’t know if he qualified for the US Open I know that he was not on my radar at the US Open he did play he missed the cut at plus seven but he will be playing in this event so maybe a look at the bottom of the field for him so he had a top 30 at an elevated event I mean he only plays elevated events well it seems like elevated event T12 elevated event t16 elevated event t27 Canadian open of Byron Nelson missed the cut not enough money for all Sheamus power at the top of those payouts so he needs to get the big ones when he gets them how was he played at The Travelers in his career missed the cut a year ago in a designated event but has two top 25s in the two years before that predicated mainly on his approach play which is nice to see the around the green has been good and he’s puted well at the course not great but well at this course okay so we’ll throw Sheamus power into the back end mix probably for a DraftKings style anyway so Travelers for Taylor Moore no too much approach is required at this course for him to likely be very good in this scenario so yeah this is not something he does well he needs he didn’t play well at the US Open but generally speaking you know a lot of distance chipping and putting maybe rocket mortgage is more of a place to look at him for the following week in Detroit anything else that we need to look at here probably not I mean it’s all the same names that we’ve been seeing playing against each other every third week it’s just at a slightly more getable course than we’re used to someone’s going to break the bank here and just go wild with putting and maybe we’ll look at Spike putting just to see uh let’s see pass 36 rounds take a decent enough sample and then we’ll go to spike percentage on fantasy National and we’ll try to see which guys can really put in like do we want to say two and a half per round we’ll say two per round so a spike percentage of two which that means that if you gain two or more Strokes in any of these categories in a single round over the past 36 round what’s the percentage that you do that at so for example ludvig his T to Green you know 42% of the time he’s gaining two or more Strokes T green is that the Scotty Sheffer 78% the next closest is Rory over that time at 50% that’s nuts how much higher that is so putting though take a look at it m Hughes Michael Thor Thor Boron so 31% for mat Hughes Thor bornon at 25% Xander Fitz Denny all at 22% then we’re into Victor Herman Bez wendam Clark dietry malady and Nick Dunlap all at 19% want take a look at Nick Dunlap for a second where has he actually played well outside of the American Express Houston Memorial starting to get it back a little bit even at the Masters he was great on Approach at the Masters but lost a ton putting we just do not have access to that data because Augusta National got to pay a lot for that stuff or you have to scrape it and we don’t scrape the stats we you know we pay for the stats that we have here at Fantasy National the approach and putting was good at Memorial H interesting didn’t realize that he was spiking putting so often but over the past 36 yeah it’s it’s mw’s fits would be very interesting for this course I think he blew up on Saturday after just making the cut and you see Brian Herman up there too maybe a decent Vic course because around the green just doesn’t really mean all that much here if he can figure it out we know that the you know the off the tea and the driving has been really good he had the very poor eight over round day one at the US Open but rebounding quite nicely hopefully that will affect his odds positively for us and we can you know catch a decent number which probably should lead us to guess the odds at the very top of the leaderboard it’s going to be Scotty shefley on the odds board Sorry probably the top of the leaderboard too 3 to one in a 69 man field coming off us open where he didn’t have his best stuff 3 to one is probably generous at this point but if Rory ends up coming back and winning the US Open he could kind of squeeze those odds a little bit closer together I have Rory in second at 9 to1 might be eight Xander at 12 to1 then ludvig at 16 after that I got Mora at 18 tied with havland at 18 and then the guys in the 20s are probably going to be spe will most definitely be there because people just love to bet speed with these numbers apparently and he has a former win he’s a former winner here people still like betting on him other than that I’m curious to see where Keegan comes in when I take a look at some of the guys that I talked about Tom Kim might be like 40 45 to open that’s a decent number Harmon should be around that range especially if he continues to play poorly over the weekend or at least on Sunday at Pinehurst so maybe Harmon comes in at 45 Henley will be around that 40 then you have like your Klay will be 22 along with speed like he’ll be in that speed range so will so we Fleetwood so we’ll JT then you got like Bez I’ll say Bez at 65 power probably comes in at 125 I’m not going to bet him to win out right but just guys from the bottom of the board that you might see everything’s going to be condensed together I would like that Vic number though if the Vic number opens with a two anywhere near it is probably where I’m going to end up going this week at the top of the board just throw out the US Open you he’ been playing really well before that outside of you know a really big blowup round uh Saturday afternoon on the back nine at Memorial but other than that just his ball striking has been so good you can get away with a lot of stuff at this course we think about some of those comp courses that I talked about obviously he’s played very well at Riviera over the course of his career doesn’t really played the Valspar all that often so I wouldn’t really worry too much about that anyway that will do it on the pat Mayo experience code Mayo at Underdog fantasy will get you a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks we got giveaway winners on Monday with fineberg in in order to see who won the 500 bucks who won the Fantasy National memberships for the year and then Tambo and I will reveal who the winners at least from the pat Mayo experience out of things are for the cut of his 5% at the fantasy Golf World Championships next week in Detroit when I do the show with Tambo for The Travelers championship this week so thank you all for watching smash like while you’re here again good luck with the US Open hope it works out well for you okay I’m Pat Mayo I’ll see you next time P Mayo experience experience