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von.com game plus iheard radio YouTube TV however you taking us in this morning we appreciate it it is Gil Alexander it is Kelly bidin producer number uh producer number nine live from bar Canada here at the D what’s happening man oh nothing much was uh working on your mic there did you by the way let me close this up what’s happening there with my shirt sorry about a party at this table last night so I had to thoroughly wipe it down uh this morning and the crew might have as well sorry I’m sure they helped as well but I I I wiped down my area and then put the headset down in it and right as I put it on I realized the microphone was disgustingly W that is a disgusting way to start this program ladies and gentlemen on the show today Chris felica the bear he’s got thoughts on Euro Cup 2024 he’s out in La by the way for like the next five or six weeks talking about international soccer tournaments so nice nice life for the bear Chris Fela He he’ll join us here in about a half hour he’s been busy past couple weeks yeah Belmont now he’s got to go in in studio to do soccer listen we don’t want him to get out of bed to earn his money but uh for five weeks I think we’re okay uh John legasa will join us talk uh baseball with us his baseball bets of the Day little instant offense from legasa Matt Linderman will join us to talk College World Series uh I ran into Matt a few months ago uh walking outside you ran into him as well yeah I just ran into a few weeks ago assistant director of trading at the win he’s a big college World Series fan so he’s got thoughts on that our own stormy bonat ton on the UFL Championship championship game this week let’s go let’s go brahmas Birmingham against San Anton birmingham’s only lost once this year you know who they lost to the brahmas and that is their Championship drama in the UFL stormmy will be here to to uh talk about that with us also talk to her about hockey yeah because uh that appears to be over as well Panther’s up three to nothing now after the 4 to3 win over the Oilers yesterday and wi Garden everybody’s on the show um want to start obviously with the NBA because uh you might have noticed this about uh my uh sort of thoughts on on this uh series and uh I keep citing the stat about these NBA playoffs where they losing team in these best of seven Series in the entire breath of the uh NBA Playoffs eastern and western conference all of it has won an average of 1.2 games that’s how uncompetitive this NBA playoffs has been and as a matter of fact when you distill to the two conference tournaments and the NBA Finals if the Celtics win tonight Kelly we could have a 12 to one situation historical situation in Conference Finals and the NBA Finals it would be 40 41 because remember the T wolves got one game off the Mavericks and if the Celtics Clos it out tonight it would be 40 so 12 to one that would be historical that has never happened before so um that’s the kind of thing we’re talking about and quite frankly and I know we’re a betting Network and I know we’re a betting show but if there was ever a time in the sports betting calendar where I would not recommend you betting something not to say you can’t bet it and win and if you do good for you but game four of an NBA Finals like tonight’s would be that moment where I would say h you should probably stay away from this I was sitting with Carl sack yesterday which we’ll get to momentarily Carl sack some folks know as NBA Guru he and I work with Dr Bob for many years the best NBA handicapper I’ve ever observed um historically just incredible and even he yesterday was like yeah CU you just don’t the bottom line is you cannot there’s no way for you to know if the Mavericks are going to be motivated to avoid a sweep or if they’re just going to lie like the choking dogs that they’ve been I it’s I I think you said it well we we and we we so rarely go into like the mental side in games like this but I think it’s I think it’s so hard to I think it’s so hard to assume one way or the other with a team in in a situation like this especially a team that’s so that is so dominated by their Stars right like if okay if Luca or Kyrie decides that they’re giving up or they’re giving 110% tonight like that’s a big difference in the game so yeah I I mean I just like I said in game three Gil I the only side I could imagine possibly being on tonight would be the Boston Celtics that still would even the Mavericks when they’ve been giving been giving their best shot are nowhere close to as good as what this team has been so well I do have two observations one of which is a betting one and one of which is not let’s start with the one that’s not and that is I’ve been bringing up the Celtics for for lack of a you know a feel here certainly as this Series has moved on uh I’ve been bringing up the Celtics in a historical perspective and I brought it up with the Drew did a couple days ago you may recall and I asked him I said look uh these Celtics have the possibility of going here if they win tonight 80 and 20 when you put the regular season and the playoffs together if they lose tonight and they win in a gentleman sweep 80 and 21 whatever the case where where do you feel that puts them in historical perspective and his line was on paper they’re a super team he said M um he added I don’t know that they’ll be an all-time great but they are a super team and I quipped because I like to quip Kelly I don’t know if you know that on the way out I said really because I I think not that not that this was an argument because he said I don’t know if there’ll be a super team because I said in my mind’s eye like there’s a bunch of Warriors teams that would have crushed this team that was my thought on the way out yeah and so I said to Carl yesterday cuz Carl wanted know part of game four I was like could you uh do a little bit of analysis on this stuff so now he said like if you really wanted to do the analysis and this is Carl sack talking and and he knows his stuff uh if you really want to do the analysis what he was saying was and I’ll read it for btim you would you would basically have to say you you’d have to dive into you know as as a first pass this is just a first pass is just going to wins win percentage and points per game differential but if you if you really wanted to get into it like you’d have to really break down you know the rate of points just for schedule like you’d have to do a deeper dive but just for our purposes here let’s just talk about records and and win you know wins win percentage and and points per game differential and so where do this where does this Celtics team Rank and so what we did is we did the last 20 NBA champions We went back 20 years last 20 NBA champions and I threw in because I’m just trying to muddy the waters I threw in the 73 and9 record setting regular season Warriors team that lost the NBA Championship to the Cavaliers in seven uh back in 2015 2016 so when you do those 21 teams that that historical analysis it is that Warriors team that lost the championship that had the most wins 88 and 18 combined that’s the most wins 88 in the season regular season plus the playoffs this the second best win percentage of any team in the last 20 years 83% and they were fourth in points per game differential otherwise known as average margin of victory 9.31 points per game okay that was the 73 and9 lost the championship to the Cavs uh Warriors can I add one more thing on to that season which is this was fascinating because I pulled up just historical net rating here uh on teams in best finishes you know that Warriors team you know the Spurs that year had a better net rating than them the so I you you jumped ahead where I was going to go cuz I was going to mention that Spurs team cuz that Spurs team you’re talking about actually from a uh points per game differential average margin of Victory they actually ranked in this they actually polluted this as well on that in that one category um they ended up they ended up as uh the 67 win Spurs from that same year that lost in round two to OKC remember that OKC team that then went up three to one on the Warriors and the Warriors came back and beat them they had a 10.47 uh differential in points so would have actually finished third in the last 20 years in terms of points differential but in terms of Champions and the 73 and9 uh Warriors of that one year so that team First In Win Second in win percentage fourth in points per game differential the the next year’s Warriors that team that went 16- one in the postseason and the South Point actually put up a prop will they go 16-0 the just ridiculously dominant 2016 2017 Warriors they went 83 and 16 combined second and total wins tie for second in total wins first in win percentage nobody has ever put together in the last 20 years of season like 83 and 16 that’s just unbelievable and they were first in points per game differential 11.96% the one where Dr Bob had them at like 40 to1 people didn’t get how great they were yet they were second tied for second in amount of wins they were 83 and 20 tied for the the most uh wins in the last 20 years second tied for second third in win percentage third in points per game differential so all three of those Warriors team are at the top of those Warriors teams these Celtics who are currently 79 and 20 just for perspective now last 20 years plus the 21st team the 73 and9 Warriors they’re seventh in win 79 they’re fourth fourth in win percentage 79.8% 79 and 20 and here’s where they really do rank second in points per game differential second in average margin of Victory 11.14 only those 201617 Warriors top them so that’s some perspective on where this Celtics team ranks and yes they did catch the royal flush of injuries in the Eastern Conference playoffs that obviously helped this along but are they what so what does that mean let’s let’s be generous let’s say they’re the fourth best team in the last 20 years if we’re being super generous that’s as high as you can really rank them if we went back 30 years Kelly then you would have to add in the 95 96 Bulls and the 96 97 Bulls of Jordan who are one two everything you look at yeah because the 95 96 Bulls were 72 and 10 in the regular season they ended up 87 percent they ended up 87 and 13 so they’d have the second most wins the highest winning percentage and the most number one in points per game differential 12.24 the year after that when they were when they were a lowly 69 and 13 they still ended up 84 and 17 with an 83.2 percentage uh win percentage in the title and 10.80 points per game differential so if you went back 30 years you’d have to add those two teams in now detractors will say and you can’t really detract from Michael Jordan but detractors at least in that terms of historical contest context would say there’s a lot of expansion in the NBA just before that so they had an easier road that way so anyway that’s where the Celtics rank about fourth generously if they can close it out tonight in the last 20 years or if they can close it out in game five um and then a little further down if you went back 30 years so I think Drew is Right super team but like you know not historically great we can name three dubs teams in the last you know recent history that are better by any sort of measure we’ll come back what about NBA MVP Finals MVP we can bet that next elevate your sports betting game with Von’s exclusive betting splits stay ahead with real-time market trends and track bet percentages on any matchup then uncover the Edge by comparing them to the amount of bets placed to find out where the sharp money is headed upgrade to vson Pro to access betting splits live odds line moves power ratings and in-depth game analysis go to vn.com proo to join Vin the sports betting Network want to level up your sports betting game then you need to become a vison Pro subscriber for limited time get a vison Pro subscription at a special price of just $199 and you’ll get an extra month absolutely free that’s 13 months of e for the price of 10 V and Pros get access to daily best bet sent to your inbox every morning unlimited Pro articles betting splits and more go to von.com subsscribe and use promo code football to become a vison Pro today for just $199 and join the sports betting Network looking for the Ultimate sports betting podcast vison has got you covered with a wide range of podcasts covering every major sport we’re here to help you make smarter bets every season hardwood handicappers offers daily NBA analysis and picks from vcon Top hosts and experts and check out long shots where we Deep dive into the World of Golf betting providing you with expert insights to help you bet every tournament find all of these podcasts and more at von.com slmp podcasts or your favorite podcast [Music] platform the summer months are here which means you’re going to have to bet on baseball this is Von MLB analyst Adam Burke 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the NFL because the Jaguars at some point are going knew that they’d have to make a decision on Trevor Lawrence and so they signed him to a five-year $275 million contract extension Adam schfer the first to report that yesterday the contract Kelly includes $2 million goned including 142 million at signing that’s just shows up in one check is that how that works they wire that in oh yeah there’s the I I always wonder about the guaranteed money too cuz yes you get the signing bonus and then the guaranteed like if it’s guaranteed can I just get it all up front no guaranteed I think is pro-rated but the but the signing bonus is right up up top I believe either way it’s a sweet day but this is you know how many times have we said on this show you can only win an NFL Championship you can only win a Super Bowl if you have a rookie a quarterback on a rookie deal that’s overperforming and you can pay everybody else cuz he’s capped or a Hall of Famer in the middle there’s the Dak Prescott Trevor Lawrence Jared gofs of the world and yes time will tell if any of these guys will get there but Kirk Cousins if you will of the world where they’re good quarterbacks maybe even very good but are they great and it’s beyond the rookie deal so but they get to a point in their career after the rookie deal where the team that has them is forced to make this massive economic decision like are we going to sign this guy for again here $275 million or are we going to go a different direction and these teams they they’re almost forced to do this because what are they going to do what’s the alternative right but here is this is courtesy of uh everybody’s favorite Twitter feed Kelly Ghetto grank uh this is Trevor Lawrence’s first 50 games compared to Daniel Jones’s first 50 games now think about before we get into it think about how you how you perceive Daniel Jones or this mainstream media perceives Daniel Jones and then think of how the mainstream Media or you perceive of Trevor Lawrence I think you will agree that no matter what you feel of Trevor Lawrence uh it’s a better thought than you have of Daniel Jones well look at that uh first 50 games now Daniel Jones has played 60 now but first 50 games which is exactly how many Trevor has played uh he’s 20 of 30 win loss record Daniel Jones 193 and one almost the exact same thing uh rating actually Daniel Jones is better 86 to 85 total yards uh Trevor Lawrence has him beat by less than 300 passing uh passing touchdowns Trevor Lawrence 58 Daniel Jones 57 picks actually Daniel Jones has fewer 33 to Trevor Lawrence is 39 yards per attempt it’s dead even at 6.7 completion percentage dead even at 63% I think you get it that these decisions are Rife with pitfalls man and that they might just have signed the equivalent of Daniel Jones I know that you I’m not saying he’s that Daniel Jones is as good I’m with you Trevor Lawrence is better but if you just look at those raw numbers we’re going off numbers num and numbers it’s going to go back to a tweet we just got from Rich too over what we talked about last segment but numbers are you can’t argue against the numbers like those they don’t lie man like that is that’s the case I and you hit on the big point of like I don’t I don’t I’m glad you said it because I didn’t want to get in a stupid argument over Trevor Lord’s stupid uh face today but the uh like what do you like these teams right like what are they supposed to do like you said you got to give them the money I was the one though with the Rams where I said they should be the first team to start like Jared G this was great nice run we we’re starting over okay I was going to bring this up because there’s two decisions there right that’s one which you want to applaud them for but I also feel like we all we all loved Matthew Stafford I don’t think any of us thought though there’s like an all-time great quarterback sitting in Detroit that if you just went and swap quarterbacks you’re going to a super you’re winning a Super Bowl right away right like is that fair no I’m just I’m just pointing out that this is the cruelty of NFL it is it’s all cruel yep because what are you going to do every every one of these days where another one of these stories comes down it is like I don’t I don’t want to turn into ESPN here but you’re like what are the Cowboys doing like what are you doing what you well first of all what are they doing showing a DAC segment every ESP has now admitted that the more they talk about the Cowboys they’re like guess what you guys watch well I think you have a little something to do with that maybe change it up and see if you can change Behavior they still got to pay Dak cidd lamb and Mah Parsons right like what is this going to be a a utter disaster that we see don’t worry Kelly Jerry’s got it all figured out what was his line to he’s going to be really aggressive this offseason or something like that yeah we haven’t seen any of that uh all right back to the NBA for a second real quick before we get off the historical thing because I want to talk final I still got final thoughts too final thoughts on that what were your what were your net ratings historical net rating yeah and that is points you know points per 100 possessions what you score subtract what you give up on the defensive side so all time where net rating rate uh ranks out you have the 95 96 Bulls the 96 997 bulls and then you have a tie for third with the 167 Warriors and this Boston Celtics team okay so for net rating the this this year’s Celtics team actually does get a little higher and as Carl sack said and thanks to Carl for those earlier stats he would said he would start with play per efficiency since pace dramatically increased that’s the big difference in the league right three-point shooting and pace and then maybe try to adjust for strength of schedule um but this anyway the ones that we did was a first pass at it okay uh Rich’s tweet here real quick so he said you overrated these Celtics would you take them over the 223 nuggets question mark there’s an average they’re an average champion and they’d lose four to two you’re blinded by incredibly poor opponents numbers are numbers man like that he’s saying I’m blinded by it he’s tweeting at both of us I don’t know well no I’m the one who’s saying that this Celtics team does not rank as an all-time great yeah I I I think that’s where that’s where this discussion about this Celtics team does become tough because I don’t think there’s a lot of people that would say they that they feel like they belong with a lot of these other teams that we’re talking about and I agree here’s the they benefited from a royal flush of injuries on the other side of the Eastern Conference the Bulls as great as they were benefited from expansion you can’t say any of that about those Warriors teams I’m just saying they’re the to me they’re they’re top of the Heap the playoffs was one thing though there was nothing e there was nothing easy about what they did in the regular season 100% And they’re not to blame for who they play right you got to give them that all right NBA Finals MVP I want to I just want to bring this up what kind of favorite is Jaylen brown right now in this Mar Kelly like he is minus 280 Jaylen Brown minus 280 Jason Tatum is plus 250 everybody else starting with Lucas 22 to1 even even Drew Drew holiday who had that great game too he’s 75 to1 by the way thank you Nevada gaming for not putting up that market um I just want to make the point that while I think Jaylen Brown could be favorite here and probably is a Justified small favorite I think minus 280 is outrageous and I think Jason Tatum at plus 250 might actually be live let me just throw up the numbers from Games 1 two and three and then the collective shooting percentages of this so game one uh Jaylen Brown I’ll read it from the uh the old computer Compu here as we get it ready of here game one brown 226 and uh 226 and two I believe he was I’ll check on that assists uh three and uh three blocks three steals great game for Jaylen Brown in in game one of this series where the Celtics blew out the maps 226 and2 with three blocks three steals Tatum was 1611 and five in that game with six turnovers Advantage Brown okay uh game two Jaylen Brown 214 and S we’re talking points re rebounds and assist but he had six turnovers along with three steals Tatum in that game 189 and 12 was a board away from a triple double I’m going to say Advantage Tatum six turnovers Tatum one six turnovers for brown one rebound shy of a triple double game three Brown 38 and8 Tatum 316 and five triple double stats all right so Brown was two boards and two assists shy messing around to get a triple double now that’s kind of a wash in that one here’s the differentiator is Brown’s efficiency shooting for the collective three games Brown is 27 of 49 35.539938 Brown is definitely minus 280 but Kelly I don’t think they’re I don’t think they’re voting on that I think they’re voting on the more simple stats and if they’re voting on the more simple stats Brown shouldn’t be anywhere close to minus 280 in my opinion you um he should definitely be the favorite shouldn’t be favored that much yeah you could argue that you think he you think he could be favored that much yeah no I think you could argue that he shouldn’t be favored this much he should definitely be favorite though I think he I agree a slight favorite I would make him a slight favor based on the shooting efficiency but minus 280 tat him at plus 250 I don’t know I think that might be live coming back with Chris fik on soccer next we’re this close to crowning an NBA champ and with the action heating up on court it’s even hotter at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA download the draftking Sportsbook app now and use code vison that’s code Von for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings the crown is yours gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or in West Virginia visit www.1 1800 gambler. net in New York call 8778 Y or text open Y at 467 369 in Connecticut help is available for problem gambling call 888 78977 77 or visit ccpg toorgle play responsibly on behalf of booill Casino and Resort in Kansas 21 plus age varies by jurisdiction voy in Ontario bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance see dk.com bball for eligibility and deposit restrictions terms and responsible gaming resources want to level up your sports betting game then you need to become a vison Pro subscriber for limited time get a vison Pro subscription at a special price of just $199 and you’ll get an extra month absolutely free that’s 13 months of vison for the price of 10 V and Pros get access to daily Best Bets sent to your inbox every morning unlimited Pro articles betting splits and more go to von.com subscribe and use promo code football to become a vison Pro today for just $199 and join the sports betting network if you didn’t catch sharp money here’s what you missed let me ask you a question if you’re the Dallas Mavericks or you’re a Dallas Mavericks fan and you’re watching that game when the ball is in this Celtic’s hands who are you least intimidated by right now okay I’ll wait now think about what I’m asking you is is it Jaylen Brown no he wasn’t great didn’t take a ton of shots no when Jason Tatum has the ball and people are trying to tell him he’s top five when Jason Tatum has the ball you’re like oh thank God because he’s going to turn it over or he’s going to get scared once he gets into the lane and not know what to do he is so in his head it’s un he needs it’s unbelievable what’s happening with that kid right now yeah but he had this many assists and this many rebounds that’s not what he’s paid for and that’s not what these top five conversations are about miss me with with the Tatum’s a superstar he’s a nice player a nice player sharp money with Patrick Maher weekdays at 300 p.m. Eastern on Bon the sports betting Network at V we’ve got you covered before during and after every game jump your game day with Tim Murray and Jonathan vonel on decent prime time at 6 Eastern they’ll get you ready before the first tip puck drop and Pitch ensuring you’re ahead of the game then stay in the loop during all the action with the Greg Peterson experience at 9: and as the night wraps up join Matt umans and West Reynolds on Von tonight at 11: giving you the first look at tomorrow’s lines to get an edge on the next day’s bets all this and more only on Von the sports betting Network the summer months are here which means you’re going to have to bet on baseball this is Von MLB analyst Adam Burke and my daily article is here to help you navigate betting baseball each and every day I break down pitching matchups study analytics look at weather reports and more to help find Best Bets on the MLB card every day my only available to Vin Pro subscribers to become a subscriber and get help betting baseball this summer as well as everything else Vin has to offer head to von.com slpro attention NHL betters the Oilers and Panthers are battling it out for Lord Stanley’s cup and Vin’s got you covered from the first puck drop to the final horn stay updated with in-depth analysis and daily articles written by VIN hosts and experts Best Bets delivered straight to your email and up to the- minute betting splits so you know where the money is being placed become a VIN Pro subscriber and unlock access to everything we have to offer at vn.com proo and join the sports betting Network a numbers game on Vin the sports betting Network this segment is brought to you by Zin nicotine pouches few things are as rewarding as winning the big game but rewards from America’s number one nicotine pouch come close close Zen nicotine pouches are smoke free spit free hassle-free and can be enjoyed from anywhere anytime it’s available in a deep roster of varieties and gives you the choice of two strengths whether you’re managing your fantasy lineup on the go watching the game from the stands or cheering your favorite team from the couch you can get the nicotine satisfaction you want with Zin plus with Zin rewards every can of Zin earns you points towards premium items like tailgating gear top-of-the-line Tech kitchen accessories and even gift cards in fact it’s the only nicotine power brand to offer an expansive reward program with new items added seasonally find your Zin at your local convenience store or online at zin.com that’s Zin zyn.com warning this product contains nicotine nicotine is an addictive chemical Gil Alexander Kelly bidin live from banada the barrage here at the D downtown Las Vegas uh Kelly shame on me I’ve gone a half hour without updating the US Open leaderboard uh over there at Pinehurst Patrick Klay who has not started his round his second round yet he is the leader uh five under heading into today after his uh round of 65 yesterday one-stroke lead over ludig obar who also has not started his round he shot a 66 yesterday four under 66 uh as far as today’s performances well the course is winning I think that’s the early return anyway Rory two over for the day through 10 so he has two shots back now at three under for the tournament uh some other names on the leaderboard uh Bryson Des Shambo two back at three under uh he is even halfway through his round today uh three back at two under Tony phenow four Back At One under among that group Xander shafley the all was steady Xander Schley Kelly um and then Kea who hasn’t started his round he ended up even yesterday and Scotty sheffler can’t talk about this leaderboard without mentioning him he is now two over for the day through 10 three over for the tournament so he is a full eight Strokes back and flirting perhaps with the cutline when all is said and done uh did anybody have can’t lay Kelly anybody not that I heard okay not that I heard just Ju Just for my historical golf betting though this would uh this would be right on if it was can’t lay Hatton one two what happens if it’s can’t Haden what do you do to yourself do you harm yourself no no not that guy worry I don’t got to worry about that don’t do that uh ladies and gentlemen Chris felica is here he is the bear he is uh doing his stuff at Fox Sports these days got the bear bets poot and he out in La for the next I don’t know month and a half just chilling doing soccer courtesy the progressive guest line how you doing Chris I’m doing well they just decided to empty the the dumpster out back so if you hear a little little truck and a little noise and a little little banging around that’s what’s going on out there that’s a great that’s so beautiful I just open up the slider sleep with the with the windows open oh it was great but uh yeah I I had catly to uh to miss the cut that’s I put him I put him I put him right put pick I picked Doric to finish last in the uh in in the Belmont and I put him right in the winter Circle so uh I have that effect on people but it’s it’s kind of crazy like the thought process for today was that the early wave would kind of have a little bit of an edge over the later wave because it’s supposed to get super hot and they think that course is just going to dry out and be super tough in the afternoon but so far the uh the morning scores haven’t necessarily been been great I think Thomas dri I think is 3 under on the day and I think there might be couple other two or three unders on the day but uh look look look doesn’t look like there’s going to be a much of an ed of any unless unless the afternoon is brutally tough yeah where they got you the the Beverly Wilshire the uh the Beverly hillsel I I am at the Cameo which used to be which used to be Mr C it’s right it’s around the corner of Pico and beverwill ah Pico and bever not quite as sexy but but cool nonetheless uh okay Euro Cup 2024 you are now we we’ve talked about this you’ve been on this show and literally like one day we counted you you have talked about we’ve had bets from you on 10 or 11 different sports and horse racing when I’ve asked you the question like if you could only have one for the rest of time horse racing was has always been your answer is soccer number two for you it might be I I just I just love the variety that in soccer and while getting involved with with with unders and penalties and extra time goals can uh kind of screw with you and put you in a bad place but uh I I I I love soccer betting so hopefully the next five weeks or so will be uh will’ll be fun well let’s start with outrights in Euro Cup 20124 what what do you like who who do you like what side do you like to win at all or what bets would you make I I think France is the best team but I’m a little conern like like Kil mbappe is injured like he hasn’t been training uh shua manyi one of the key midfielders he’s hurt like they are the deepest team and they’re and the best team but uh they’re for their makeup and their injuries have me a little bit concerned I think Portugal might be worth a flyer uh at a bit of a price they’ve got a ton of talent and even even Spain like that cut below like you’ve got the you’ve got the France England Germany but those next two teams Spain and Portugal If you’re looking to uh to potentially take a chance there um those teams might be uh be worth a shot how about prop bets Group by group anything there yeah I I played I played some uh tournament long props like if you’re looking for like if you’re just looking for a team to win a group and you don’t care about like laying a number Portugal to win their group I think was like right minus 245 or so like they should win their group very easy it’s a very weak group but again it’s just your appetite do you care about laying 240 or not but but some of the tournament long stuff like that like golden Boot and most outstanding player and most goals and stuff like that like that I those thing I found a couple of longer prices there that I took a I took a shot with it I play I played rodri uh the Spanish midfielder uh to be the most out outstanding player in the tournament 30 to1 like I just mentioned how Spain I think is8 to one to win the win the tournament if Spain wins the tournament there’s a really really really good chance that rodry is going to be the most outstanding player because Spain really does not have a legitimate like proven goal scorer up front now they have a couple of young guys that Nico Williams and um and and yamal Amin who I think I said his name right properly who could be that but they’re going to have to show it for the first time on International stage to do it and rodry is so good in the Midfield everything kind of goes through him uh 30 to1 I thought was a a good price on a team that can win and you’re getting almost four times the price on what you would get on Spain to win the tournament um Serbia to allow the most goals in the tournament at 16 to1 I think that’s a uh a pretty live bet for multiple reasons number one in this group there’s a chance they potentially could get through as a third place team maybe and get get that fourth game in the round of 16 but they also draw England in their first match and England coming off of that loss to Iceland in the friendly they are going to be out to put up a big number and kind of calm everybody down down at home get their confidence back so it would not surprise me to see England put up four in their first match on Sunday against Serbia this is a team that’s really really bad on defense they’ve got a couple of goal scorers up front but uh you’ve got Denmark in there you’ve got Slovenia who I met who I heard Paul Carr mentioned yesterday about benjam Cisco who can score the Serbia to allow the most goals plus 1600 was something and and I played Ukraine’s Aram doic win Golden Boot at 47 to1 he someone who played for in La Liga this year he led La Liga in goals uh you’re at a group here with Romania who’s one of the Bottom Feeders of of the tournament Belgium who has great Firepower but defensively they’re weak and Slovakia who who will allow some goals so Ukraine is a team that I think can get through to the round of 16 maybe potentially the quarterfinal and uh if he could put up uh if he could put up some goals in the group stage maybe get a couple against Romania you might be live at 47 to1 especially if indeed uh mbappe maybe doesn’t play a group stage game and it’s a little slow in getting going okay let me repeat those Chris not because I didn’t get them but because people are you know obviously the American Sports Fan is not necessarily soccer is not necessarily second nature so um Serbia to allow the most goals in this tournament 16 to one um rudiger who’s on uh who’s on we haven’t got we haven’t got to that yet that’s that’s a separate match for today okay we haven’t gotten a rudiger yet rodri most outstanding player 30 to1 he is on Spain’s side Rod yes okay um and dck have we got we haven’t have we got to do yes Golden Boot D do VK D VK he’s Ukrainian on a Ukraine side for the Golden Boot at 47 to1 now as far as today’s go ahead with with your thoughts on rud yeah first match for today um Germany against Scotland it should probably be a pretty defensive minded game I think Scotland will try and just defend and keep this low scoring but I’m not as high on Germany as a lot of people are I think it’s more of just oh they home they’ve overhauled their roster so of course they’re going to go out and they keep run but I I don’t see like the the the ruthless score like Germany has had up front in the past maybe H hits will turn into that uh I still think they have a couple of holes but but today I I played Antonio rudiger the defensive defensive back um play um back a kind of the defend Defender I have my mind on American football but Antonio rudiger you have at least one shot uh minus 125 and you could play a little one shot on goal at plus 300 he’s really good in the air Germany should have a million Corner kicks and oar he can get his head on one of them and maybe hopefully put it on target next week a Heisman long shot from you maybe we’ll see maybe we’ll see how’s that for a maybe teas maybe we’ll see I’ll get back to you on that okay thank you Chris enjoy your time in LA take care guys Chris felik everybody John leg on the other side instant offense on Major League Baseball next DraftKings giving a bonus bet back if I lose so I don’t have to sweat my bet NBA Hall of Famer Patrick Newan now you know all about sweating breing it down for us a no sweat bet it’s kind of like an offensive rebound you miss your first shot you get another chance to score you supposed to shower after the game Patrick new customers get your first bet back as a bonus bet up to $1,500 if it doesn’t hit the crown is yours the summer months are here which means you’re going to have to bet on baseball this is Von MLB analyst Adam Burke and my daily article is here to help 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to me and he said take a peek at this team at 100 to1 or higher he’s a firm believer they can make a huge Run next year loves their coach yeah I never saw it but he reached out made some sense hou you can find them 100 or one or higher right now I the conference odds are not up I’m talking only NBA Finals Elite coach sanon’s only going to get better they have a top three draft pick if that means much and they have just a they have like a really nice core of young players I’m not going to say at the level of OKC or maybe that deep but they were awesome at home last year and maybe I think there’s a lot of teams in the west who are have no chance next year they playoff teams this year yeah they came on late and almost got in there that’s right that’s right maybe Houston could be that team that you know top three top four seed next year follow the money with Mitch moss and paully Howard weekdays at 7:00 a.m. eastern 4: a.m. Pacific on Von the sports betting Network so Paulie have you had a 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find all of these podcasts and more at von.com podcast or your favorite podcast [Music] platform a numbers game on V the sports betting Network we are this close to crowding an NBA champ with the action heating up on the court it’s even hotter at draftking Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NBA download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now use code Vin that’s code VSS in for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings the crown is yours uh when vison uh Plus+ Plus+ uh gets done and people can subscribe to that some of the rabbit holes we go down on here off air I’m rethinking every carnival game ever ever created now based off that off air conversation now we got into battle of the Network stars and then like we were talking about the dunk tank like who was the human being right who conceived of this I’ve got it like was that the guy who’s like running around every pool party pushing people into the pool they’re like I need a better way to get take advantage of this we put a celebrity on a seat preferably a girl if he’s you know what he was going for and then if they hit the thing Falls and they fall in the water it’s a hole the best part about the dug tank is nobody’s ever escaped it dry like even if you’re at a fair and like every like like there’s been 200 kids that have thrown a thousand baseballs at it like they still dunk the guy every time this man is a fan of the dunk tank as well he comes to us from I don’t know right out of the Outfield seats in Yankee Stadium in the Bronx right out of Central Casting it’s our buddy John Legas everybody uh truly the host of the cork stats podcast MLB and NFL writer for the athletic you can follow him on Twitter John lag heza that’s how you spell legasa l a g he e zza courtesy the progressive guest line how you doing Johnny love it man feature the bleacher creature all right yeah John le Gaz check it out on Twitter and on you I think you’re part of it you helped me make me a bestselling substack author tip to you nice glad we did that oh you’re no know move uh known needle mover uh let me just ask you this before we get to your three picks here uh I want to I want to say this the Yankees since I brought them up just I mean I know they lost yesterday and I know they lost in dramatic fashion in the night to the Royals but as a Yankee guy how excited are you about this team right now yeah and you know me right I’m I’m very uh reasoned one of my favorite Clips ever was me just having a on air contion blam basking in the front office when they shipped Jordan Montgomery for Bader right so I try and be very fair we talked about how unhealthy they were the pendulum seem to have swing I know Cole has been out but other than that they’ve been really healthy juano gave us a scare and he’s back he’s like World beating playing for I don’t know you fig this guy’s going to break another contract record so yes it’s really exciting but it’s also really early I I only have to look back a few years the Phillies World Series and a few before that with stto the Nationals World Series both of those teams were discarded in August not even the All-Star break could give people an idea of with the new format extra teams getting in from the middle of August if you run really hot in those six weeks you’re going to get in the dance and then whoever’s healthy in the short set gets the crown so I I’m happy I think the Yankees are pacing really well but we’re really far from the end and you know the rays are I think better than people give him credit for Boston I think having BR and Kyle body the pitching is kind of speaking for itself so it’s not going to be a cakewalk I’m I’m happy but we is a long way to go world series title or Bust or or get to the World Series or bust you know I’m that guy the day after they used to get eliminated I’d wear all my Yankee stuff and be the type to thank them for a good season okay you you want him to win yeah yeah I believe it or not but well I just I got to be different while everyone is booing and hissing you know I mean these guys go out and break their back view and sometimes it just doesn’t work out their way it’d be nice for them to bring it all the way home because I think especially with stto it’s very much a win now Lou Hill who’s been phenomenal I don’t know if he’s ever thrown more than like 60 innings in a year you got to get what you can get right now so I’m hoping that they add again I don’t think they need to air the world but never hurt to bringing a ven guy maybe it wouldn’t hurt to I don’t know just solidify the bench a little bit if they ran a little more would help so I’m more of the Yankee pessimist but it’s definitely exciting but to be honest do you think they’re better than the Orioles I don’t know yeah it’s it’s interesting uh John is the guy who even when they get eliminated stands up and applauds the team for giv him a great season our buddy Todd Wright when uh when the golden knights sent an email thanking the fans after they got eliminated for a great season he wrote an angry email back saying stop with this nonsense with thanking the fans so there’s all all different types all right John uh you got three plays starting with the Padres what do you got with them today all right this one is the one that I definitely like the most there’s a lot of meat on this phone it’s an F5 play so let’s go into the go with the Padre’s I was going to say to the beautiful weather they’re leaving the beautiful weather are going to Queens to face the let’s go Meco matd Waldron’s on the bump with this really interesting knuckle ball what I like about him is it’s not all knuckle ball right we’ve seen the ra dicki and the Wakefield stuff where you could be very erratic start to start because it’s only a piece of the Arsenal if you don’t have it you can go away from it and when it works he hyper features it so we’ve seen that lately I don’t think he’s given up two runs across the three last three starts total and you kind of know what you’re getting right you’re not going to get a lot of swing and Miss you’re not going to get a lot of strikeouts but the ball is going to be on the ground and you’re looking at a lot of weak contact you’re looking at a lot of double plays and I think that kind of the center of the play right here the Mets one of the things that I do with my substack page is it’s it’s really important to split offenses in particular if we’re looking at five- inning bets because it really then is truly isolated to the real expectation of five innings from a starter Mets are a totally different team Jackal and Hyde whichever is a good one I can never remember Mets verse righties are just horrific just horrific the last 200 play appearances against righties as a team a 215 batting average only three home runs that’s a 590 Ops and a sub 100 ISO that’s not going to get it done dead last in line drive bottom five in all the X stats so I think Waldren is going to push the Mets around and on the other side I think we have a really good match up Mania has been a bit over his skis and I think that probably corrects today he’s got the 4-3 eay 135 whip put all the indicators are a bit worse and The Swinging Miss stuff for him really disappeared he’s falling behind everybody 57 First Strike really not viable especially when you’re up against a strong split right the second piece of this kind of uh triple beam balance here Padre’s raking against lefties top five offense versus lefties last two weeks batting to 9800 Ops and you know not striking out winning in the zone pulling the ball elevating 345 team expected W but which probably implies like five and 3/4 runs for you nerds out there so I was surprised to see this one coming at even money or the best we can get from predatory books even money minus 110 on both sides give me the Padres through five I think we get this one pretty easy Padre’s first five at City Field today for legasa by the way my favorite part of that was so you’re like Jackal or hide whichever is the good one cuz I I too have trouble with it um in the novel uh Dr Jackal a hero who is aware of the evil in his own being and sick of the duplicity in his life succeeds by way of his experiments on himself in freeing the Pure Evil part of his being as Mr Hyde yeah why was one a doctor though and another a mister you know you lose your doctorate when you switch over to hide Mister didn’t go to school apparently how did you remember all that I didn’t I just read that part I was trying to serve I was trying to serve you up with some 4 180 listen you got to flash that 180 IQ every once in a while brph man that was incredible brph all right uh Terk scoble on the hill today in a in at minute made in a game that means a lot to a lot of us around here who have the Astros bets in the month of June uh scoble 20 earn runs in his last 18 starts dating back to September of 2023 his ER is 1.9 to the lowest from a Tigers pitcher over the first 13 starts of a season since 1945 what do you got here between the Tigers and the Astros man Terk scoo is a revelation right now the question for us fantasy Geeks coming into the season you know I like to focus on fantasy because I think that’s where the science happens and it kind of gives you idea of what to expect as far as trajectory we knew T scoble the upside on a pting basis as far as efficacy goes is quite literally like the a11 type of guy Strider type of stuff and all you needed was the health right now we’re getting it so man this one again feels like a bit of a misprice minus 110 on both sides it’s Detroit at Houston but like you mentioned it’s not just a 31% k 16 swinging strike 31 wi which is all kind of validated it’s elite elite control a I’ve been using ball rate again one of the know piece of nuance in the context when you get with my stuff I think ball rate is a bit more predictive than walk rate a 30% ball rate right the inverse is a 70% strike rate is just through the roof so he gets ahead induces chases induces whiffs then is a ground ball machine and impossible to hit home runs off of as much as I like the Astros I think this is the public kind of chasing the jerseys a little bit without Kyle Tucker they’re not quite the same they really are just a human offense versus lefties and while Brown has corrected course a bit we’re still talking about a guy with a 39% ball rate in a double digit walk with the 57 First Strike so you’re going to fall behind a team like Detroit I think they get just enough done so give me five cuz again like you mentioned scoble is such a tough customer I’d be surprised if the Astros get to two so give me the Tigers minus 110 through five okay Kyle Tucker was supposed to come back today but probably not today hopefully for the Astros sometime this weekend so P Padre’s first five Tiger’s first five which I don’t like because I’m rooting for the Astros uh give us one full game play in the last 30 seconds here yeah last one this is really easy to be I’ve been calling it an inflection point on my show where we see enough of a sample where we want to buy into it but then we have to know are we going to revert back it’s Kevin gsman full game minus 130 who’s been great coming off a complete Game shout out against Logan Allen with a nearly 6 and two whip he’s been really bad I think the Blue Jays beat the guards at homeus 130 full game John appreciate it man good luck with the bets miss you man have a great weekend bro John legasa everybody the microwave instant offense we’ll come back Matt Linderman on the College World Series stormy bonat Tony on the UFL Championship it’s a numbers game at Visa the sports betting Network we’re this close to crowning an NBA champ and with the action heating up on court it’s even hotter
1 Comment
Where do you find these stiffs who give out losers after losers ?