CBS Sports and SportsLine experts break down their picks to win and who they like as long-shot bets in the 2024 U.S. Open.
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ladies and gentlemen we are back on the early Edge and it’s time to talk some golf odds to win the US Open Scotty Sheffer is just winning everything and that’s why his odds are so short they’re plus 280 next man down is Xander schafle at plus 1,000 then we see Rory Colin morawa who could have won last week Victor hin Bryson D Shambo all the way down the line to Hideki Matsuyama who’s interesting and now adjusted to plus 4,000 well let’s bring in some of our golf experts here at CBS and sports line none other than Mike McClure who you’ve seen and Patrick McDonald of course who I do a show with on the early wedge uh gentlemen listen we’ll get to the outrights in a second we’ll get to maybe a couple of long shots that we’re considering but Mike MCL I want to start with you I want to start with your favorite tournament matchup because for those of you that don’t bet a lot of golf I mean this is where a lot of the bread is buttered if you will this is where a lot of the consistent money can come in not necessarily on outrights but on matchups what’s your favorite matchup so far at the US Open Mike you know see one jumped off the page immediately to me and it’s Dean burmaster versus Dustin Johnson I’m on burm Easter here and you know you mentioned head-to-heads being where you typically bet a lot in golf that is especially true because some instances you’re betting on a player some instances you’re betting against a player more so than on the other side this is an instance where I’m betting on a player and against a player I’m also betting DJ to miss the cut here at plus 150 but I love this matchup for burmaster doesn’t carry the the name value that Dustin Johnson does especially in a major but DJ to me just the current form not great doesn’t seem highly motivated bur Easter is a great fit he’s a lot like JT in my opinion where the question mark is going to be the putter but we know that he’s going to be good off the te we know he’s going to be solid around the green and he’s just in great current form here so I like him minus 120 he is the favorite for a reason in this matchup over Dustin Johnson Patrick McDonald I did you a disservice by going to Mike McClure first because you had a bunch of picks to choose from you settled on is it the same exact pick Patrick McDonald yeah I’m just going to copy Mike since all he does is is win these matchup bets I figured it was the easiest route here and everything that Mike said tenfold right the the I guess motivation factor in DJ’s Camp I’ve heard from people down in Florida he’s not really uh practicing too much right he’s enjoying life he’s enjoying the Stanley Cup down there hanging out with friends and family and the results back up I mean the Masters was a disaster the PGA Championship he made the cut on the number and I I love the Miss cut play from Mike uh for DJ because I mean the the cut here is top 60 in ties 156 players it’s really penal and then on the dean burter side of thing seven straight top 20s a win at a very difficult Golf Course like Trump National D he played great at the PGA Championship so I I think totally the name values with DJ but the actual values with uh Dean B measer in this one yeah I like that play quite a bit I’m going to be jumping in on that one we’ll make it uh three for three I’m going with a different matchup though I’m going with Hideki Matsuyama over a guy who probably has a little bit more name recognition than him it’s Patrick Klay I’m fading Patrick kley I faded him last week at the memorial that was where he was supposed to rebound because his course history is so rich at mirfield well he wasn’t very good at all and a Dei Matsuyama was excellent so I get a similar course a similar course setup a very difficult course that Hideki by the way during round four at mirfield last week was excellent and that those were the toughest conditions conditions you’ll see at this US Open I really like him minus 135 over Patrick Klay and I know Patrick kley is traditionally classically a great golfer with the ball striking and with the short game it hasn’t been there in the entirety of 2024 so I’m very happy to fade him I like keki in a lot of markets which you’ll see in a second but let’s talk about that let’s talk about some outrights and Patrick I’m going to start with you this time let’s talk about who you like listen I I don’t know if you’re taking Scotty sheffler at plus 280 I can tell you I’m not taking Scotty sheffler at plus 280 so for taking him off the board who do you have to win the US Open well I I like hadaki maama in a lot of markets as well seea including this one he is my pick to win the 2024 US Open you look over the last 12 months there are two men who rank inside the top 10 in terms of Strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green shocker one of them Scotty Sheffer the other hadim miyama like you said he he had a great start there at mirfield Village finishing inside the top 10 there were some concerns I guess about his status right he hasn’t played too much this spring after a great start to the year only the Masters in the PGA Championship before uh his place at at Jack’s Place but I think he squashed all those concerns with his play he’s a great long iron player great in terms of bogey avoidance proximity from over 200 yards he’s among the leaders and he’s a guy who has proven in firm and fast conditions he can hit it high in enough and he can get the job done so I like aie to get it uh to get it done this week love it gentlemen I’m going to be on Bryson D Shambo 20 to1 I think this price point is pretty phenomenal and you can really thank Scotty Sheffer for that being such an overwhelming favorite uh I made the number on Bryson though down to 13 to one I I love Bryson in these particular spots unlike someone like Dustin Johnson from the live tour Bryson D Shambo is someone who absolutely is taking everything very seriously is completely locked in and focused he cares about four to five tournaments per year this is definitely one of them and he’s got the skill set he’s excellent off the te we know that he’s long can bail himself out in certain situations but he’s still solid around the greens solid with the Putter and again just a big game hunter he is going to be relevant here he does put a lot of pressure on himself but he’s been able to live up to it at this particular point so I like Bryson here 20 to one yeah Mike and Patrick I’m realizing now looking at all this that we have a lot of overlap which we’ll hear and see in just a few minutes I’m going to start with i i i put in two bets on Sunday immediately uh and I’ll just start with the shorter shot and then we’ll get to the longer shot in a little bit I like Colin morau I was on him last week at 14 to1 I also played him in the without Scotty Sheffer Market at plus 1,000 so we cashed that ticket I really wanted to cash the outright but listen I do think what people succeeded with last week at the memorial is going to be similar to what they’re going to need this week at the US I’m not saying the courses are carbon copies of each other but I am saying the ball striking needs to be good you probably want to be accurate off the te you’re going to need to have the short game you’re going to need to have a putter that’s working and Colin’s been checking those boxes for a few tournaments in a row now so I think Colin morow at plus 1600 or in some markets it might be plus 1400 I think he can run this thing back and be in contention on Sunday afternoon with Scotty or whoever else is out there I think colins’s due to win so I like him in that plus 1600 plus 1400 range and Gentlemen let’s talk about longer shots so Mike I’m going to start with you because you said I love it gentlemen when Patrick McDonald just sung the Praises of Hadi Matsuyama sounds to me like your long shot is that man it is C and I know it’s always questionable what do we consider a long shot right for me it’s always 50 to1 is that cut off I know that we all three jumped on this on Sunday and Monday uh when it was 50 to one so that’s why I’m giving it here if you want the true Long Shots you can head the sports line I’ve got three of them up at triple digits on each one but for me Matsuyama 50 to1 I backed him one other time this season he won the event 90 to1 I think that he should be priced around 35 to one in this particular spot and I could make the case that he could be all the way up to 20 that’s how much I love the course fit for him the question mark just comes in around some of that Health but he’s top five in total Strokes gained he’s the best player in this field around the greens solid on the approach especially with those long irons that you guys have both mentioned I think this is a great spot to back Dei I I obviously understand why the price point where it is when you’ve got a guy like Scotty playing how he is you’ve got Bryson in form you’ve got Colin in form the win Equity sure you can question it but I would be stunned if Hideki matama was not in the top 10 on Sunday competing for a win here I’ll take him 50 to one yeah there’s certainly a lot of variance with this course but when it comes to a difficult course I really like where H Dei measures up or how he measures up against the rest of the field so I guess in golf especially at a very difficult course anything happen but to your point Mike I’m glad you brought it up because I also like him at 50 to1 he’s also my long shot and Patrick I know you have a longer shot as well that you’re going to share with us but to your point Mike I like him in the top 20 Market I like him in the top 10 Market when it comes to Hideki and so I think you can you can kind of use that lading approach if you want and and hit him in the top 10 Market maybe in the top 20 Market maybe in the top 30 Market as well um there’s a lot of different ways to play uh golfers that you really like this week and I think keki should be firmly inside the top 20 I know I’m betting him in that particular Market Patrick last week in DFS I was on Russell Henley and he was okay I thought the ball striking was a little messy but I loved him last week as a course fit and I I got to think if I loved him last week I should probably love him this week well you love him a little bit more than I do correct uh of course it it doesn’t take much for me to hop on the rust bus right this guy can do everything he’s one of the most accurate drivers in the game tremendous long iron player like we said that’s going to be hugely important this week great around the green as well he’s from this part of the country should be comfortable on the Bermuda there uh at Pinehurst number two and this year finally he’s got the putter rolling in the right direction that’s been a bit of a Bugaboo over the past couple Seasons but it looks like vintage you know old rookie like Russell Henley on the greens and you look at his Us open history two top 15s in his last three one of those at Tory Pines a few years ago he was the 1836 and 54 hole leader right there in the mix and I think he can do something similar this week I know distance is going to be somewhat important out there 7500 yards only a par 70 you would think the big hitters would have an advantage but I’m hoping the firm and fast conditions of Pinehurst will allow someone like Russell Henley to kind of compete uh in this field so give me him at 90 to1 I think he has a real chance to surprise a couple people this week
