U.S. Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 311 – The 2024 US Open is pretty much with us! Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, and Paul Williams @GolfBetting walk you through the 2024 United States Open Championship from Pinehurst Number 2. Fresh course changes, how will Number 2 play, key player skills to be a winner, tournament trends, and some names to consider a bet on. #usopen2024 #usopengolf #pinehurst #pinehurstnc #scottiescheffler #rorymcllroy #pgatour #DFS #Golf #fantasygolf #PGA #OneAndDone #draftkings #underdogfantasy #fantasygolfpicks

US Open 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
01:46 Will Murray in UK Listener Review
03:22 Steve’s 10th Runner-up of 2024
10:34 2024 US Open Tips Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s US Open Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/us-open-tips-2024/

Paul’s US Open Longshot Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/us-open-longshots-2024/

Major Championship Recent Form Stats: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/recent-majors-finish-stats-us-open-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/id1234973013
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Oo0Ivfnq4QQPch9SlRP5V Podbean: https://golfbettingsystem.podbean.com/
Podcast Addict: https://podcastaddict.com/podcast/golf-betting-system-podcast/2197395
Audioboom: https://audioboom.com/channels/4990651 Deezer: https://www.deezer.com/en/show/3353472

This podcast is for listeners of
18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit GambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

if you li betting on golf but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf B system podcast it’s episode 312 this is our 2024 Us open tips podcast the returning Barry oan rahan and Paul Williams join me Steve bamper to discuss our selections for this week’s thirdd major championship good morning J morning guys morning guys Vis our world famous golf betting system website where we have indepth betting previews for the US Open so we’ve got an overall preview we have Paul’s long shots piece he’s also going to put together some first round leader tips we’ve got recent major finish stats I’m going to run through some of those later on well worth a look form stats we’ve also got of course old and new predictor models for the US Open all of that content completely free of charge there is no pay War Bol golf betting system all of us are available on X Barry is at a good talk golf Paul is at golf betting I am at banford golf subscribe to the Steve banford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is available along with my weekly golf betting show that’s already out there in The Ether on YouTube now you guys as listeners power of this podcast so we need your five star reviews on Apple podcasts ever for those of you who leave a review I will read them out the start of a future show leave your name and where you are in the review we are desperate for a review so please take some time even 30 seconds just give us five words it really doesn’t matter but give us a five star review if you can spare the time right love the Pod title H really enjoy the Pod each week great chemistry between the three of you and always read the preview Steve with the PGA Paul with the DP well to any chance Barry previews Live question mark had strong view had strong views that Scotty would win The Masters so it was a good week I’ve had a nice bet on Scotty for the US Open at 11-2 which is now gone after he won at austa kimer won by half the track in 2014 with a solid long game and a good week on the greens but an insane week around the green if that doesn’t shout Scotty I’m not sure what does hoping for another good week there keep up the good work and that is from will Murray and will is in the UK thank you will thanks will I’m not sure about Barry right in the previews perhaps will should after that um low down on Scotty there very comprehensive very good very good indeed let’s quickly run through next uh last week by the way those five star reviews can we please have some because I am literally now dry so this section next week could be quite embarrassing of total silence for 30 seconds okay let’s quickly run through last week most people probably trying to forget it uh Paul Sebastian Soderberg give me 30 seconds I thought it was going to be a pretty boring Sunday um with uh Soderberg what was the eight clear going into a final round and just the eight yeah Scotty looking Unstoppable over in the states so ready just to to write the Sunday off um I already written it off from a golf betting perspective anyway cuz it was a shocker but other than that um yeah it didn’t look like much was going to happen but no absolute shades of uh shades of Martin kimer and Abu Dhabi wasn’t it with the way that he just continue to Hemorrhage shots and then finally got to that 18th hole where well he been looking shaky all day but the shakiness just completely took over and yeah poor bun poor bunker shot poor p poor second part that first part reminded me of Lee Westwood in his prime it’s just it you know when Lee used to have those knee knockers and he’d always leave it sort five six feet short there’s nothing worse for a golf Panter than a than a a guy that literally cannot get in it anywhere near the hole when the uh when the when the tension’s on well you know you serious was that part that second part then what what distance do you reckon you missed that it wasn’t it was 3 fo it wasn’t much more than that but even so you know you’re looking at it and the way that he’s played and the the way that the day is gone and you know ser ious ly feared for him at that point and quite rightly so it you know his head had gone um had he made Birdie on the 17th with that you know a decent approach shot there so you know had his chance to to put it to bed effectively but yeah he he just U just lost it on that final final hle and yeah Ling Grant a second win at that tournament for Ling Grant and uh you know grateful recipient she’s almost an embarrassed recipient at the end there because didn’t expect for that to happen did she you know was she I think she was 12 behind going into the final round and someone said on social media that she was 400 to one I didn’t even look that far down the list so I can’t tell you the exact number but um you tipped her up last year I did yeah yeah and she she won the year before and the won the year after so that’s right it’s the golf bating system podcast yeah it’s the way things go it but yes but yeah interesting over in the states as well unlucky on colen Mar for you Steve that must be your 800th second place finish for the season 10th 10th 10th of 2024 One winner 10 Runner UPS I had Victor hovland as well he was right up in the mix and Scotty started wobbling on Saturday I thought oh Holland’s in luck here he then across his last 28 holes produced One double 10 Bogies and three birdies so um that kind of because I had Victor very much in mind for the US Open this week yep but when that started to firm up at uh Jack’s Place wow soon as he was missing greens jeez one double 10 Bogies I think he had a stretch of four Bogies on the Trot doesn’t that didn’t fill me with enthusiasm for Pinehurst I had Tony Tony was literally slashing it around the golf course but was doing his SE a good sevia act around the greens he was chipping everything in actually making some putts which is worthy of note Tony Fe and our followers actually had a good week with the putter which I think is the first time in 20124 we have said 3M open Rocket mortgage these these smaller Fields I think he’s going to beat one of these week Fields up um I I say these things to try and remind myself to actually do put that tip in when I get to those weeks by the way yeah make that note Barry make can you get grab a post at note Barry I mean I’m surrounded by them here when Steve doesn’t put up when he doesn’t put up Tony F at the 3M or at 16 to one yeah it’s BL Blast away okay yeah at the rocket mortgage classic every want to be going back Tony F 16 um so he he was going to get me a full each weight at 45 to1 then he Bogi two of the last three but Colin of course he he went head-to-head with Scotty best player in the world byar and actually you can’t say anything against Colin I think I thought he played really well across the whole tournament y he’s reminding me Colin is reminding me of Xander at Quail when Rory won the week before the PJ yeah I got that you know you you look at him at the odds market and you think hitting the ball well first for Greens in uh first for driving actually on the whole PJ tour striking his irons again with that beautiful fade that he he gets used to I mean he can’t he can’t move the ball both ways but you know like he said I think he got to the point where he tried to become a a fader and a player that could move the ball both ways and then lost the lot yeah he’s now said I’m just concentrating on what actually got me to this point which is just playing fade all the time um and as we’ve seen with Dustin Johnson players that can that can bring you a very good living um but yes I I think I think Colin is this week’s Xander that we saw at the PJ playing some very nice gol we see very nice golf indeed I have said that I’m going to do this more regularly te to Green numbers from last week’s Memorial just for those that like to make a note of these things Sheffer at one 3.2 Strokes per round t green Adam hadwin too he played really well didn’t he Adam hadwin is is is he trying to get in the um the Olympics is it something like that that there’s another one of these deadlines coming out there are a lot of players who are trying to yeah it’s quite complicated the Olympics depending on the the country and the world ranking positions but um yeah there’s a lot of players with that on their mind certainly he was at 2.7 then Colin sahi tala four Cory Conor’s 5 Christian buzen who who all I could see on Sunday was him just chipping everything in the old magic beans from Christian Hideki Matsu armor I reckon some of you guys are going to be putting some of these players up this week Matsu armor at seven and sep not SE sep Striker at eight playing some great golf sep really really is right should we crack on with the US Open let’s do it Paul and and I did a research podcast clearly that uh that is podcast number 311 we go into the intricacies of Pinos number two winning Trends what you like to see of players coming into the event now I have seen of course we’ve now recording this on Tuesday I’ve seen some footage from the course I’m seeing feedback from the course um there was some kind of feedback and I saw some videos with the cor superintendent saying that he’s tried to create the green surrounds here the runoff areas to quite a a state where you’re not automatically pulling putter so they’ve tried to soften the green surrounds yeah with water and they’re also making them quite fluffy what this is trying to do is stop pros from literally automatically seeing their approach shot running off the green and if it isn’t running into a bunker or Sandy area getting the putter straight out of the bag and from what I saw yesterday there was a great piece that Johnson Wagner always does from these major courses where he was around one of the greens and he’s he’s basically showing how crazy these greens are what the runoff areas are like and it’s funny because he’s got the chipping yips and he’s you know he’s trying to chip with wedges and he’s duffing it he’s trying to chip with five irons and making a hash of it he’s even getting out you know five woods and trying that technique and then he gets the putter out and literally knocks it to two feet yeah and what you could see on this coverage was literally around these greens the amount of pitch marks where all of these Pros are chipping was insane and he mentioned that a lot of the high traffic areas are covered in chicken wire at the moment because they’re trying to protect the surrounds of these greens because from what I’m seeing this this golf course boils down to two things it’s pretty simple this week weather doesn’t look like it’s going to be a factor which is great if you can find players that are absolutely fantastic in serious heat yeah this isn’t a bad week because we’re looking at temperatures of 32 to 33° C up to 92° F North Carolina South Carolina at this time of year is hot okay so very hot conditions humidity not a lot of wind there’s no threat of rains whatsoever so this is great Baron the usgaa have got complete control of this golf course the only moisture that is going on it is the morning due and what they decide to put on it that’s that to me is total Clarity so what we see from that Golf Course is purely what the USG have decided to do on the setup yeah did you see those um you see the comments you see the comments from Windam Clark yesterday that L what I was going to say yeah no it’s well you know steal your thunder but yeah he was just saying that the the greens are already borderline um at this stage which um well from a spectacle and a US Open that we want to see that’s exactly where we want it isn’t it Fant exactly where Barry wants it it’s brilliant because now they can drag it back a little bit for Thursday and slowly just release it over the weekend yeah this is I think Barry’s hit on that you you you can’t soften a golf course the week before leading up to tournament week and then and speed it up so clearly they they they’re kind of going for the Augusta route we’ve said this year after at Augusta they reckon that the greetings on Saturday and Sunday at Augusta prior to the Master’s week when they’re at their firmest and fastest and a lot of the ladies have had to play on that on that ladies tournament beforehand then they just soften them off and then they start bringing them in towards the end of the week again yeah there’s only so much you can do with these golf courses before they go completely haywi I mean we’re dealing with very small tolerance percentages where either yeah it’s either in hand or it’s out of hand yeah so that was encouraging for me and they they’ll always have to look back to um what was it shinok got bananas yeah yeah yeah and they always have that in mind and it it could be the it could be the difference in a slight change of wind direction or you know for an hour or two and that can be the thing that t it over the edge and makes it supremely challenging and entertaining for us to watch or unplayable so it’s it’s not a balancing act I’m sure is easy in in any one way um but it sounds like we have great potential for a visual treat so bring it on yeah thank thank you weather Gods yeah it’s nice for a a major not to be plagued with the with rain most of the rain was in may they had 139 Ms which is more than they expect they’ve had 19 Ms in June that I think the last of that was Friday maybe Saturday but this this looks as dry it’s dry so great so the usgr in control I I said this I think this balls down to two things I found it BR you know brilliant that when you actually look at the aerial view of many of these holes and I am quoting on my betting preview that these holes can be um 35 to 45 yards wide off the team now that’s wide that is very wide now compared to col compared to mirfield Village last week Jacks put in 300 yards uh carry 28 yard wide Fairways so a yeah but what you do see here you do see this on a lot of the holes again they’ve got pinch points and they’ve got pinch points at very good spots whereby they’re tempting Rory to literally whack driver but he’s got to clear a pinch point on The Fairway that’s 22 yards wide maybe and what the USGA have done with the core superintendent here is they have just packed those Sandy areas with Wire Grass either side of those pinch points there is no and I mean no it’s either Fairway or sand there’s no first cut there’s no rough there’s nothing you’re either on The Fairway or you’re in these um Native natural sand areas yeah but they are packed with all manner of weird vegetation yeah hit and missing there now web one more weather comments just before we drop off it that it’s really appealing we’re going to have it right now it looks like we’re going to have an easterly wind on Thursday a Westerly wind on Friday a northeaster on Saturday and southeaster on Sunday so going see the it’s it’s going to be it’s just it’s like a Christmas uh gift but anyway let’s see I just it’s exciting to be we’ll get to see the course play in very different ways which is really cool as well encouraging Big Challenge you gotta play yeah big big challenge this week so web Simpson said in his interview yesterday on the USGA app US Open app he said bearing in mind he used to come down he’s played this a hell of a lot his dad built a house on the property apparently uh they’d come up from Raleigh and he’d be in most weekends as a as a kid growing up so he knows this course incredibly well right he said the way I look at it he was firstly very pleased to get through the qualifier so fair play for to to Webb to get through he said that what you’ve got to do you’ve got to say that even though these Fairways are super super wide at least his number that he quoted I am thinking that I am going to miss the Fairway a minimum of 18 times I’m going to be in one these Sandy areas and at that point it is pure luck there’s no more about it you either you either get stitched up effective ly or you’ve got a nice position on some crusty sand and I can en enhance the ball you know towards that green complex so we know for a fact golfers hate this kind of stuff where you’ve got this this is where I’m getting at so anyway that’s Point number one I genuinely think that straight long drivers have a great Advantage this week now John Jeff also mentioned this that’s the core superintendent he said they focus so much of their attention around the greets now you’re going to hear listeners so many descriptions about these greens I I will describe them as unique um I’ve heard them as upturn saucers upturn cereal bowls come you can come up with whatever you want to but effectively this was the number that grabbed me and this came from John jeffy’s lips in an interview I heard these greens are cro quoted he quoted them at 6,800 Square ft chunky y he said that the on those on those greens on average the only area he can put flags on pins on are 2,000 to 3,000 square ft of each green which is basically telling you that there’s 2,000 to 3,000 ft of each green where you can can get an approach shot to stick yep that’s crazy so less than half of each green complex have areas that you can hit approach shots to which will stay on the green yeah yeah the rest of it is too severe they can’t they can’t put a pin on it so yeah if your approach is just off you just aren’t staying on that green and he said sorry Paul he said just let I’ll finish this creating player indecision is the absolute thing that they’ve worked on the most around the greens is to whether chip on dowra and tightly moan textured lies or put on grass that will be just high enough and I was saying this earlier kind of flaky grass and moist enough in terms of the soil to cause variability of result with the putter that’s the key for them they’ve worked on these green surrounds to make them so player doesn’t automatically grab putter out of the bag they actually hear the evil laughter when they came up with this well Peter cus who was hosting this said that he said I I I barely know you said but I can tell you a vindictive man they’ve kimer proofed it they’re trying to yes but I saw I mean I like I said yesterday I saw Johnson Wagner putting it on the green he made you know he made it look relatively easy on one green in one particular position yeah I grant you if if we watched everybody do putter all week long it would be boring so yeah exactly right I’m on board with this idea so the best way to defend the this course has two defense mechanisms it’s this wire grass and it is these ridiculously difficult greens and that is why they need to get them to a stimp that at least on Saturday Morning has got plenty of release in it because I genuinely think that they could make this I mean they could make it what they want the usgaa Mike Davis has sailed he’s well over the Arison now I I I would like to see personally a US Open where sort of five six open five or six under windsensor like last year at Lac shooting 62 on a Thursday morning yeah yeah no that’s that’s that’s not a Uso there should be a handful of people on the par at best it’s all going to be boys about the spin the stimp in these greens now in this interview again he did quote did John Jeff they are targeting this was from his own lips they are targeting just on 14 stimp for the Sunday that is the Target and he he looked at the sky and he said good willing H so I think they’re being quoted at 11 and a half to 12 already also you talk take Windam Clark I think players say stuff just to put pressure on the organizers I think there’s a lot of that kidology goes on yeah that’s that’s funny to think that they’ll pay too much attention they’ll listen but you’re not going to influence they have their plan could you see the North Carolina fiber grade turning on Wednesday evening about 8:00 p.m. go and get on the course Lads that will ruin it that will ruin it completely I hope not yeah they H it has to be a little bit soft and receptive on Thursday if they want to let it progress throughout the week so we could see you could see a a decent score on Thursday for first round leader yeah I think so I wouldn’t be surprised you know if you see the score get to I don’t know maybe someone shoots a 63 and then we see that score just stick no one’s going forward from there no yeah yeah yeah and I I think that’d be fine they got no issues with them it’s okay I you know this idea that I don’t know I just don’t I don’t unless Scotty Sheffer literally plays unearthly well like he can and he’s sitting there at 10 under and like the next person’s at 3 under I mean there’s a chance of that isn’t there yeah there is yeah could happen there was a chance of that please please don’t please don’t let that happen excuse me I’ve got I don’t know what it is my my uh my wife has been diagnosed with the 100 day cough and clearly I have it so uh the next sort of 13 to 14 podcasts are going to be interesting oh dear right anything you guys want to say about the course before we move forward I think think we covered most of the basics there it’s it sounds like it’s going to set up to be a challenge in US Open which is exactly what I want to say okay right we’ve had three previous winners here pay Stewart God God bless his soul Michael cell and Martin kimer now just out of Interest I had a quick look through Wikipedia as you do Payne Stewart had won at Pebble Beach proam he’d also won at harpertown you know I’m just looking he’d also won har toown twice by the way 89 and 90 Carolina golf course as we know Pebble Beach is interesting I do think there’s a lynxy feel to this golf course I don’t know what you think Barry just the fact it’s sand based I know it’s landlocked nowhere near the coast but just the look at the place the way it should play firm the the way the sand fires up when they’re hitting shots off the Fairway there’s some and the fact that you can also it doesn’t have to be a te a test in the air you can actually run shots up onto the green so there is a links element to it yeah uh Michael Campbell he’d finished third at the 95 Open Championship which they played at St Andrews by the way P Stewart was a runner up at St Andrews at an open he’d also finished 12th at the the O US Open the one that tiger one at Pebble Beach he’d also finished 11th at Sor grass so this this and Martin ker of course we knew that he’d won Sor grass before winning this he’d also finished 10th in the US Open at pble beach so I don’t know why I can’t tell you that but there’s a couple you know pepal Beach doesn’t seem a bad angle Sor grass good angle um I think Harper Town’s a decent angle we know I know I know that course is diff is different to this but again Carolina golf course lots of dog legs I know this is Carolina golf on on on steroids but if you’re looking for some angles maybe some of those courses right let’s look at the B market Scotty Sheffer there’s a there’s a sniff of 100 30 out there but generally 3:1 um I’m seeing the short as 5 to2 being backed by the way yeah Rory maroy next up 12 to1 in a in a place 11 to one General Xander is a 14 to1 chance although in lots of spots I’m seeing him now at Nines in in reality I think Xander’s becoming second favorite then col Mor car at 16s we got quite a few at 20s Bryson Victor ludvig oberg at 22 and then we’re out to the likes of Brooks kka and then there’s a gap to John Ram 28 to1 pretty generally available same price that you would get with Tommy Fleetwood well I’m going to ask you guys let’s mix this up I want I’m going to ask Paul first then I’ll come to you Barry name me a player in the top in the betting who you wouldn’t back with my [Laughter] money oh what a I could have said fight but I’m not going to use that terminology wouldn’t back with your money I’ll start I’ll start with an easy one ball CLE Yeah Yeah well yeah um I think we’ve um we’ve we’ve talked a lot about Klay and I thing with Klay is you may get an hway place out of him um and if you’re talking 50 to one in places which I’m seeing um you know him backdooring an each way place wouldn’t surprise me um but I won’t be back at him but um yeah I that’s not quite the same as with Steve’s money I the one that I can absolutely go nowhere near is Justin Thomas now that is likely to come back and buy me on the backside but I’ve been sniffy about Thomas all year and nothing that I’ve SE particularly with the pter um makes me want to change that view right now there are improvements and I can see that the reason he’s been backed to some to some degree this week is because there have been improvements but I’m St seeing Strokes G negative for the last three weeks or three outings with the poter and I really I just I can’t see on a course that’s going to get up to 14 stimp on Sunday a player that is struggling with that flat stick finding a way to actually perform and potentially win the tournament I it just doesn’t compute for me so that’s a bold one yeah I I know and you know he’s he’s been tipped and yeah it’s and you know he’s he’s a major Champion um one of Steve’s favorites in the past but well I put him up last week shot one under in the first round you think oh he’s not bad he’s in a decent spot and then he just Round Two Strokes going off the T minus 1392 on approach minus half a stroke around the greens minus 1.1 Strokes game p of course minus8 Strokes gain total for the round minus four you just think wow he just ejects doesn’t he yeah I still think that you put Justin Thomas when he has to hit driver a lot and he has to hit it sort of he just he’s got he he’s just got bad had bad drives in him I really think that that particular round last week he eight of 18 greens so yeah I can see where you’re coming from with Justin Thomas it’s yeah it’s just too much of a stretch for me to go go near him what about you Baron John John Ram has a task ahead of him this week like this is the worst he started a season of majors in his career has it won on live yet when you I think probably should have picked one up at this stage so he they’ll feel like a little extra pressure on his back this week and there’s apparently a bit of a um an injury he’s dealing with as well so feels a bit cheap to pick on him but you kind of have to feel like you put them onto that list um after that I think I think Bryson will go okay cuz he’s playing very well I don’t think he’ll win so that that would be my that would be one of the braver ones in terms of where they are in the odds to say the Bryon won’t win and I’m also going to say Xander I add a few in here I just don’t think will win but that doesn’t mean they won’t go well or give you an each way Place uh each way return Sanders’s just playing Great Golf so I expect him to be in that top eight yeah Xander’s a funny one isn’t he cuz how does he respond to the pg Championship win um if he comes out and wins the US Open then wow yeah exactly wow um it takes a lot of players a lot of time in general to find a way to up their game again to to reach that same level and go and win a another major championship some players NE never do um but um you know that may be the mark of the man should he come back and and seriously contend this week um but yeah like you you know if I was backing players right at the very top there then I’d struggle I think to get to Xander at nines or t let’s talk about the big one then would you back Rory with Steve’s money that’s that’s the one we need to talk about it’s a tough one isn’t it it’s a tough one you know I was on him last week and there wasn’t much there um but then is that a good thing yeah you know he’s he’s gone the other way in these Prem major events won the tournament and then not converted the major and you know I don’t know is it was was it a conscious kind of um you know preparation week rather than an allout attack week even though it was signature level and all of the bells and whistles that come with that diff difficult to tell um I’ve not backed him um plenty will and you know I’m not sure I could put anyone off if they wanted to go down that route cuz he has a chance but I’m very tempted I just just to start if I max out on the predictor model the The Firm conditions uh like you guys were saying on the on the uh pre- pod he comes out number two and he does play and he has been better throughout his career getting better at playing difficult golf courses um where in his early years he used to just murder the easy ones but now he’s become better and better at handling the difficult test so you now have two very big factors this week that he has um shown more than enough good homework in to to make me go and the fact that he wasn’t in contention last week is a plus for me he’s not burned any massive mental energy he’s not had to deal with too much of I mean like um mirfield village is a it’s a it’s a a test you know and that can kind of wear you down you saw what it did to a few players just absolutely spat them out um and it can just uh slap you around the place and he didn’t get any of that last week so that those are all good things Steve I would back Rory with your money another second place then but but I Mass yeah exactly I am hugely biased so who who’ be yours Steve if you were backing him with mine great question I think cam Smith yeah it doesn’t I did a live chat yesterday on the um St banford golf YouTube channel had over 50 guys on there for the premiere of the video which was great we do it quite regularly if I got time there was a lot of guys on there saying to me CAM Smith’s gonna be the shock this week you know cam Smith he is playing some do go for gol so yeah St Andrews feedback get that we know we just mentioned that get all of it but sometimes of course especially with DraftKings you’re looking for players that have got they’re not playing well right now but you stack it all up you’re going to get low percentage ownership on a player that you know is just going to spring into life cam Smith is playing so badly I think he tied with Anthony Kim last week at livv down in Houston yeah yeah now that takes a hell of a turnaround to then go and contend if not win a US Open the week after so cam Smith for me I mean I’m seeing him as short as 28 to one with Paddy Power Paul I wouldn’t put a penny of your money on that no no get that get would much prefer Matt Fitzpatrick or Tommy Fleetwood who are either side of him in the B don’t get Cam Smith we’ll see them right okay let’s crack on then um Paul you’re going to go through your uh triple digits towards the end of this segment I will start at completely the other end I’ve Got No Remorse I’ve got no apology about it at all um I have taken just under just over a third of my stake this week and I’ve just banged it straight on Scot Sheffer um thankfully I managed to get 4 to one with Star Sports Monday morning fantastic I’ll have that I think Scotty Sheffer wins the US Open this week I think a gromy geography conditions atmospherics I just think everything about this golf course is perfect for Scotty Sheffer and last week he wins his first tournament outside of the Southeastern or Southern United States at in Ohio so we’ we ticked that one off the list as well so the game does travel so yeah Scotty she 4 to one six points I’ve been saying that for weeks interestingly enough I’m going to quote these Paul because I did say at the top of the show you do these fantastic uh um US Open oh sorry major championship averages which do continually move so the numbers I’m quoting go back to the Masters in 2018 Scotty sheffer’s average round score across 17 Majors is 69.81 he’s actually being beaten by Ben Kohl’s who finished 26 at the PJ Championship he’s had one major he’s at 68.75 but clearly 69.81 Sheffer we then jumped to 7.28 for maroy 7.29 for Brooks 7.33 for Xander 7.42 for Colin morawa 7.46 for John R those are your top six major performers over the last uh what that be six years yep yeah back to the start 2018 is you say interesting enough next up on the rank ludvig oberg at 70 and a half he’s only played in two that’s a that’s a second and a miss cut and Victor hovland at 7.58 some likely names then yeah so I’m on Sher next up next up for me I don’t think you’ll be anywhere you two will be around these price points so I might as well crack on said it at the top of the show morawa reminds me of Xander now ordinarily when I look at the you know the research that I do I think you do ideally at a US Open you need to be an extremely long hitter um Colin isn’t that but the one number that does grab me with Colin morara even though he’s your 288 290 man off the tea although when I was watching the early coverage from um mfield Village last week I saw one of his drives went 340 which I was like whoa Kara car’s 340 he hit it way past Scotty on that particular hole which does show you there’s something there when he actually catches one um but he does doesn’t tend to be that aggressive because all he wants to do is hit Fairways number one on the PJ t for Fairways hit for me he’s a bit of a modern day Jim furick but he’s got more pop than Jim ever had um I just think this this course again will be very very positive for Colin the number that grabs me when you look at all of them despite him not being the longest he’s 15th on the PGA t for strokes g off the two now Martin kimer arriving here was 10th The Strokes gained off the te in 2014 despite not really being the longest off the two so I think morar was quite close to K in in shot shape and in game shape so yeah I’m on morar I managed to snitch a 16 to one on morawa with bottle Sports eight places each way that’s nice yeah they just lengthen the prices I was actually putting my Paul’s putting my preview out which doesn’t ever happen so thank to Ball Sports they took it down within an hour but over it not worried yeah right so I’m stopping there at 16 to1 where are you guys at with your first bet bar I’ll come to you it’s I’m I’m kind of I haven’t put any bets on yet and I’m kind of struggling to figure out the angle do I look for markets without shaer because or do I just back him and make it a really boring week and having one horse so I’m I’m kind of lost a littleit bit at the moment I a few names I have so I have a Max home a bet anti poost from last year I don’t even want to look at his odds now because I know they’ll probably be better than the anti poost odds were similar okay that’s fine uh small relief um I’ve havland uh noted down for a few weeks um kind of in in the kimer vibe with the short game that not an elite short game and could happily just choose putter but now we’ve got a little bit of Chaos in there um with the slightly with a change in the size of the greens but he can chip as well so playing well might go on him um I have a note about tala because he led the field putting at the Players um and we have you know established a link to the players here uh and I also threw down um after he won Bob McIntyre I be I think I think I’m going to put an each way B on McIntyre don’t care about the with without shler Market I I just think that mentally that’ll be a new level unlocked I do I see him winning probably not really know he really will be pinging the odds if he does win but I think there’s a good chance he could just ride the uh the wave he’s on and grab a place yeah 12 of the last 15 US Open winners first time major winners yeah does happen and you mentioned a couple of names there Barry haven’t won a major it’s not a bad course of action what about you Paul yeah I’ve got one that’s relatively short shared with you but I can I can start off and then uh you can you canish you can finish as it were and then then I got one mid price and then the three longers that uh you alluded to earlier but the short shorter one um is Brook kka um first player I back this week um I know you’re on him as well 20 to1 um with 10 places with bet Fred I took him exactly the same times as you actually um you can get slightly longer out there but I think with 10 places at 2 to1 that’s a cracking each way bets and with Brooks you’ve undoubtedly got the sort of player who could not necessarily will but could St stare down Scotty Sheffer as we know twice a US Open champ ION three times a PGA Champion he Peaks for these major Champions a major monster as I think you described him um we focused a little bit after the the Masters didn’t he he was poor at the Masters 45th knew he kind of knew things weren’t right didn’t he 26 at the uspga um that was coming off the back of a win at uh live Singapore wasn’t it that’s right I was on him at 14 to one at the PGA H yeah and I think having that win we talked about it in the pre pod didn’t we where many of the players have either a win or a second place or you know a very close finish in the calendar year today so having that win in the locker is good for for Brooks’s chances I think fourth here back in 2014 bear in mind back in 2014 that was a young Brooks keco he was U he was only playing his fourth major championship yeah and uh I think he was still playing he’s kind of flitting between Europe and America back then he’d uh he’d graduated from The Challenge tour the the year before but I think he was still um he still wasn’t kind of cemented on the PGA tour back then so kind of gives you a feel as to where he was in his career so for him to come and finish fourth which was a a big personal best at the time in a major championship um that was big for Brooks last week he played in Houston last week um ninth overall some cracking numbers and I’m sure these are exactly the same numbers that you plucked out and thought well um Brooks has got to go in cuz second for driving accuracy um third for total driving second for ball striking on the basic numbers that come out of the Liv tour that was absolutely spot on looks like the perfect platform for me for uh for Brooks to build on so so yeah Brooks 20 to1 10 places I’m absolutely happy to have that five time major winner his major form this year reads 45 and he said himself he was underco didn’t [Music] prepare don’t know maybe he sat in his garden staring out at the uh the boat bobbing up and down at the bottom too much um hav you know having some tequila or whatever um 26th at the PJ now that PGA Championship when I was writing that tip if I’d have known what that played like I wouldn’t have put Brook skar up a major that’s won at 21 under on a soft Golf Course where penalty off the te is negated and where you don’t have to aim for the middle of the greens you can just aim for Pins all week that is not Brooks kka no this is Brooks kka you know with him and Ricky Elliot I we’ve said this Barry and we’ve mentioned this you know you can say this about Scotty and his relationships with the c this is a strategist Golf Course you’ve got to have a strategy that you say Thursday morning this is what we’re going to do and very little is going to change until we literally get to the back nine and I might need to do something to position myself in a in a better way to get up the leader Ballard a little bit closer but you’ve literally got to have a strategy each and every day and you stick to it and I think pineur I’m hoping is that course his Live Form by the way is 919 it’s not exactly disastrous is it 919 this was the number that grabbed me from last week now Rick G has got a deal with Liv I was talking to Rick on X last night and I said where you getting these Strokes G data from from Liv and he he he was very honest about said I broke at a data deal so I get a data field out of a data feed out of Liv so fair play the number that grabbed me that I saw on Rick and follow Rick Gan fantastic the videos he’s done on YouTube really really good the number that I grabbed for Brooks last week at Houston he gained with the driver listen to this across three rounds in total 6.87 Strokes off the te now just to give that some kind of clarity AE bartier at the memorial was the best driver of the golf ball last week he gained 4.11 Strokes gained off the te in 72 holes Brooks gained 6.87 across 54 impressive that’s he also shot a Sunday it was almost as if Sunday right let’s literally and we love this before majes don’t we come on guys let’s see what’s under the pedal pedal Ricky okay come let’s go for it 7 under 65 best score on Sunday at Liv Houston I think he’s totally under the radar I genuinely think I was on Andy laak’s podcast last week Andy and I we always do a a on the inside golf podcast we’ll do a a pre major research podcast and he was running through his Runners and Riders and the second person he mentioned was Brooks kepka and I literally sat there while we were recording going God I don’t really know why you’re going brooken near Brooks Andy and I said to him you you know me Andy I don’t need any excuses to back Brooks kepka a major I said what I need though I need some very strong pointers in Houston that the game is there and Paul you’ve gone through some great pointers he’s driving the ball phenomenally well right now and I genuinely think with the approach player I think he was top 10 for Greens in reg as well I think with a firmer faster harder Pion Earth number two you will see Brooks kepka towards the top of the leaderboard and I would love to say I keep saying this I want to see a major where Scotty and Brooks and a number of the big names are all fighting it out yep could because then we start getting to the fact this doesn’t become Strokes gain anymore this is who’s got the biggest set of kahunas that’s major golf at its very Peak that’s what I want to say yeah agre now I’ve got one more and it follows on from Barry here actually now just to get it out there and this is just through my research when you look at Michael Campbell and you look at Martin kimer on their outing previous to winning here at Pinehurst they were in the top 10 for driving accuracy and had extremely good um total driving numbers be in mind we’re going back to years where Strokes game weren’t really available okay so get that again top 10 driving accuracy the out in before they won at Pinehurst so I’ve been very very particular this time I’m just looking at my Memorial numbers um col morawa was eighth for driving accuracy so I stuck with him Brooks kepka LED driving accuracy in Houston last week 81% of Fairways hit Sergio Garcia was second by the way now this might actually give hope to nons Scotty Sheffer backers because he was quite when I say Whitewood he was first for Greens in rig he only hit he was 24 for driving accuracy so anyway I’m almost Scotty cuz he’s 10th for driving accuracy across the whole year right the name that dragged really grabbed me last week hasn’t won a major hasn’t really come close to winning a major but as we know in golf betting in 2024 this area from 25 to1 and now 22 25s right out to 50 to1 it’s dead in terms of winners dead dead dead dead no one’s winning so I wanted someone 50 to one plus the numbers that grabbed me last week were from sahit to Gala shock horror I know he was eighth for driving accuracy at Memorial he was 12th for driving distance he was fifth for Greens in regulation first for total driving he was uh second for ball striking you’ll like this one Paul fourth for all round go and listen to the research podcast from a Strokes going off the te perspective second I’ve been on sah last two years at har toown where he’s finished fifth and second loves Carolina typ golf courses he’s also got a top seven at Copperhead yes I know it’s in Florida but again Co it’s a it’s basically a Carolina golf course I just think sah who went out in the second from last group at the PJ last major on Sunday I just think he’s a little bit under the radar and I grabbed I think was it 55 to one po I yeah y yep and I know with sah he could be nine over through the first three holes get that I don’t know on a golf course where his weakness around the green could be negated because he can be taking poter you know all Texas wedge all Martin kimer sah with the driver and with the approach play and with the putter as Barry said did you say stro number one for putting at the Players this year mhm yeah I don’t think sah tal is a Bad Bet at 55 to one that’s me I’m done those are my four very good I’ve got another one slightly longer than that and then I’ll I’ll take it through my um my three triple digit picks and the one I’ve backed uh kind of mid pric is Keegan Bradley 70 to1 with 10 places that’s with lab Brooks um I mentioned Bradley in the the pre pod last week and that was largely off the back of his first for total driving four for a round at the uspga championship first for total drive in second for round of colonial and kind of you know having preached about those two basic yet and I I get the flaws and those stats but those two basic stats which pop up time and again in the analysis for this particular tournament um if I’d have preached about those and then KN backed Keegan Bradley yeah and then gone back and reviewed the numbers again and see these two numbers or four numbers stareing me in the face then um yeah I I I couldn’t couldn’t it would would not sit comfortably with me so so I’m there with Keegan um he’s also won on a Don Donald Ross course uh back at the 2018 BMW Championship that was at aronomink um and you remember he won his PGA Championship major at Atlanta Athletic Club which was on Champion Bermuda greens as well so a couple of couple of bits of correlation there um yeah and to top it off he was fourth here at Pinehurst back in 2014 played really well so bit of course for him to boot as well playing some really nice stuff Keegan Bradley I know you’ve mentioned that fact over the last few weeks and um 70 to1 with the extended places I think Keegan could sneak into the uh the paying eway places potentially one to look out for in the first round leader market so I will see what he gets in terms of a u a tea time later today um my first round PR first round leader preview will be out on Wednesday morning UK time for me Keegan is the sort that comes to tournaments like a like a Brooks kepka but clearly not that level tougher the tournament ke Bradley comes to the full love him at the same price area love Tom Kim just couldn’t get to him with my staking plan I’m seeing 66 to1 out there about Tom Kim yeah yeah a winner on a Donald Ross golf course I know you can’t translate sedville to here but he’s good on the green surfaces he likes Bermuda it was just the putting let him down last week the the putting went backwards but the approach played the driving was excellent so I like Tom Kim I think there’s quite a few to like around these prices sep’s playing some great golf isn’t he yeah yeah yeah yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if Barry’s uh I don’t I don’t mind Robert yeah Robert McIntyre either I think he’s a decent be around here yeah I would be surprised if Barry ends up on with a little bit of sep in the uh more more than likely there’s a good chance he’s playing some really good golf just I I very yeah just assume I’m going to backp he’s the driving he’s hitting it long and so dead straight you know he’s he’s dominating off the tea top five across a lot of tournaments recently off the tea Dam really really impressive I am keeping like the the driving accuracy is one thing I’m I’m looking at um for sure this week absolute raw length is not something I’m going to lean on too heavily because a lot of these Fairways pinch in around the 300 yard Mark so if if if you’re trusting your shot shape and want to take it on yeah you can get the ball you know you can really get some short clubs in your hand but you are adding you’re taking on a bit more risk at that point by threading it through those uh narrower necks at 300 so I guess it’s it’s you know when when do you want to take on the the risk um this week do you want to be conservative off the tea and then you’ve got a stronger second shot uh or sorry a harder second approach shot in or do you want to take the risk off the tea of being in trouble but you could give yourself a wedge in or very you know very short wedge in so that’s just something I’m trying to keep in my mind about the the way the course is set up and and versus length look length is always an advantage so um but yeah there was my thoughts there these Fairways are extremely wide let’s get that out there they they’re Runway strip wide but you are as web Simpson said you are and he’s pretty straight driver you’re going to end up in the in these you just want to Min you don’t want to be ending up in these Sandy native areas 25 times against people that are ending up in them 17 times because you’re going to get you just literally there going to be you know one in three chance or whatever the number is that you are going to literally be in a you can’t you just have to chip out sideways mhm the most inaccurate drivers of the big names last week at Memorial were Justin Thomas Alex naren JT Poston cam young Victor Perez Taylor pendrith Denny McCarthy will Alat Tores I’m going down by the way uh Tony F now the worst of the lot Ben AR worst of those that made the cut I’m seeing him being backed this morning benon you just got to pray that he ain’t going to be behind the cabbage and the uh the wire grass and whatever whatever herbal things that you’re getting in these sand areas cuz he’s going to find them a lot more than other golfers by the looks of it yeah well your longer shots Paul where are you at yeah there as you said there’s a um there’s a preview on the website so if you want to um get a little bit more detail about my three triple digit prices then pop along and have a read of that but I I’ll r through the basics um AE batia I’ve backed 150 to one that was with bet 365 and their eight Place option some cracking combinations of price and um eight Place uh terms as standard from 365 this week so do check them out what’s the bonus code sport sport 30 sport 30 bet 365 yeah absolutely um do yeah you know you can look at some of these bookies and the way that they approached these majors and uh he got to say that 365 are particularly strong again this week so uh well worth a look but yeah batier um 150 to1 starting to learn how he operates now aren’t we so last summer had a poor run then finished 35th for the John Deere ninth for the barbarell one the Barracuda earlier this spring seven saint for the valpar 11 for Houston and then he won in Texas I was on board him that week um it kind of seems the player that just builds up um finds a bit of form and then can just go bang so perhaps he’s building again two Miss cut 60th in Canada 22nd last week at Memorial and one of the stats that you mentioned a few minutes ago Steve that caught my eye too first for strokes gain off the te last week yeah amazing really he’s a proper ball Striker Bara yeah yeah absolutely fifth for total driving as well that other metric which um he’s an elite ball Striker that’s what we’re coming to learn yeah yeah yeah yeah I like that I like that I think it fits quite nicely I think there’s a big major personal best coming from batia this week Victor Perez I’ve also backed at 200 to one again that was with bet 365 we talked about some linksy style links in the pre pod and we’ve touched on it again here actually you picked up on some correlation with results on the old coures and Andrews as well Steve didn’t you during your research and I guess in a way this is a bit like American because St Andrews um you know with its Heritage and the way the you know the history of the course or the courses sets up the whole Resort it just draws thousands to it every every year to go and play the pine Earth courses yeah for sure yeah yeah there there’s certainly some correlation you know of course the way the course is set up not not so much but if you look at um Michael Campbell Martin and kimer both of them have got form on the old course um and so does Victor Perez who’s uh won the dun Hill links um he won that back there in 2019 you know it may be extremely tenuous but I don’t think it’s a bad angle of um investigation really Perez he’s also won the km open and the Abu Dhabi championship both events won by Martin kimer as well um both on different courses but so you know there’s certainly some correlation between the respective careers and he comes into this playing some really good golf third in Canada 12th at Memorial l last week Strokes gained approach numbers um over the last three starts 10th 9th 7th I think Perez could again find himself in the paying places this week at a good price the final one David Puig and Pui if you’re looking down the betting list how did you by the way when I do listen to golf oh sorry when I watch live the guy calls him David how did I pronounce it it’s there’s no eye in it at all when the when that guy says you know the commentator that does David P something like that yeah I’ve not quite mastered his pronunciation yet no and I certainly haven’t either but um yeah David pug P yeah let’s let’s go with that um 300 to1 with Ball Sports of back to still available at that price right now um he’s one of these youngsters that that the uh the Liv tour snapped up um he was still at Arizona State College at the time um and uh jacked that in to go and play on live clearly the uh The Lure of the uh the money was um sufficient to to get him to take that career decision at the time but it seems like a seems like a decent decision to have made he’s got a few top fives now at live level including last week it was third in Houston last week second for total driving on that course so that caught the hits it an absolute Mile and putts really well as well he’s to the putting stats the basic putting stats and three of his last 10 outings at all levels and I’ve been reading about his aspirations of making the Spanish Olympic team this year he needs the world ranking points of course he’s not going to get those from playing on Liv so he’s been popping along to a lot of these Asian tour events in between the Liv outings um he won in Singapore on the Asian tour in October won in Malaysia in February on the Asian tour and he’s uh gravitating up the world rankings this in terms of the owgr points that are available would be huge to him so I guess if he’s got and he has got real aspirations and making that Spanish team I think this will be a huge huge Target for him and um I think you know I think he’s a big talent I think he’s the kind of player that we’re going to see more and more of over the over the years and like uh like lud o B we will all learn how to pronounce his name at some point when he continues to to be on our radar over the next few years but yeah I think this I think this could be the one this could be the major where he really starts to make a name for himself and becomes more of a household name so yeah my three pug Perez And a ba and I I usually brutalize bers pronounce ation as well so perhaps I should have picked three easier ones to say have you got anyone at triple digits Barry do I ever uh I have a I have one who has won twice in a row recently on the kft Harry higs and that guy is on a tear yes indeed so I’m looking for just the merge of price and places I I I want those 12 places they’re on offer so let’s figure that one out and I think I’ve seen Carl at 250 to2 places um so he’s three careful with coral they are sick the odds oh I’ll have to change that then thank you for pointing that one out okay so then I’m looking at BF okay I’ll find out but generally he’s 300 to1 eight places um I’ll figure I’ll have to work that one out oh there you go bed Fred 300 to 110 places that might be something around what I’ll do um and then just like a mega a mega mega Outsider um in terms of odds but Zack Blair MH so I’ve figured out that I can get him at 600 to1 12 places on better fa yeah beat that one Paul yeah I’m not sure I’ve got anything down that uh down that kind of level there’s some there’s some huge huge prices about players this week in the thousands yeah because it’s such an it’s because it’s literally an open a lot of the players at the bottom end of this are particularly poor quality so the spreading the spread in betting this week is amazing there’s some big old prices down there Jim i500 yeah I tell you one I’ve got a sneaky feeling might do well here I I could be completely wrong McKenzie Hughes he’s playing well isn’t he yeah if you want that kind of magic bean style at the end of the day he doesn’t hit many greens but then he doesn’t hit many greens every week but what he does do is scramble and Putt lights out there’s going to be one or two of those sorts that gets right in the mix this week at least for a top 10 you see what I’m saying yeah yeah I’m not saying to win but you know third at Valar cup ahead so that’s a Carolina golf course this year he was sixth at Quail Hollow another Carolina golf course I mean car you wouldn’t really say that that place you know is is is is uh McKenzie Hughes um favorable and he was seventh of the Canadian open he was literally going head-to-head for the win so yeah I think McKenzie Hughes anything up to 250 uh anything up to 225 with bet 365 isn’t a bad bet this week that’s eight places each way I hope your bets go well this week Champs best of luck guys you too Boys best of luck to the listeners we’ll be back next week with The Travelers championship and what have you got Paul uh km open over in Holland next week we’ll see you again soon cheers if you like betting on golf but everyone that you’re back misses the cut get some experts [Music] involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the 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