FSi – PGA DFS Picks Show – U.S. Open

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welcome back everybody to the PGA DFS pic show I am your host John mcnut you can find me on socials at john9 here for fantasy sports Insight talking Draft Kings PGA DFS this week is the US Open the third major of the year uh so let’s go ahead and Jump Right In as far as a course preview goes I’ll throw at you a bit of information if you are looking for it there are a ton of very indepth course previews out there on YouTube check those out but as far as a brief overview and a focus on the stats that I’m looking at this week uh the course is Pinehurst number two this is in North Carolina the course is just a par 70 but it’s 7,400 plus yards very very long course Bermuda grass greens and this is a Donald Ross design um so a couple things to note this is going to be an extremely difficult course I would expect that only a hand full of golfers if that finish four rounds underpar total um so look at the winner maybe in the single digits 2 three four underpar uh it is possible somebody could get really hot and do a little better than that but I do not expect very low scoring this week at all the cut will be the uh top uh top 60 and ties um and you can expect the cut to probably be something like plus two maybe plus three could even be more hectic than that not a lot to note weatherwise except that it has been extremely dry in the area the greens are going to be very vast very firm um and it’s not about long thick rust like rough like a lot of us opens uh but instead this course is much more difficult in its length as well as the greens themselves I mentioned they are fast they are firm they are also kind of uh plateaued if you will like turtle shell like uh the ball is going to hit and roll off constantly so we’re going to put a focus this week on B striking as we usually do but also around the greens very very important ton of mist greens this week as far as the uh rough goes again they’re pretty ride wide Fairways the rough is very very thin there’s not much rough to speak of and it turns right into kind of a a sand trap Fescue type area uh so certainly you want to have accurate drives and with the length you need long drives too so I’m going with total driving as an important stat this week I also looked at par 4 scoring and specifically on long hard par four par fours like 450 yards plus um this since there has not been very many events played at this course we certainly don’t want to be focusing on things like course history and the stats are limited for future for past events here um but instead really focusing on difficult bar four scoring that is going to be consistent throughout all the years they’ve played here um just to mention that this course this course did host the US Open in uh 1999 2005 and 2014 so very limited course history but uh certainly something worth looking at it’s hosted some us amateurs as well as a few other professional events uh but other stats I’m focusing on here would be bogey avoidance again very very difficult course scrambling since we are going to see a ton of golfers missing um some Fairways but then mostly missing greens uh and then as far as proximity goes again we’re needing some long iron players so 175 plus yards on proximity is kind of where I would be focusing on and then I mentioned the grass uh the greens are Bermuda grass greens so certainly Bermuda putting and really on Fast Bermuda courses this there’s some videos coming out right now the ball is not going to stick on these screens at all we do not expect any rain in the forecast either so it could be absolute chaos as far as trying to get your ball to stop on the green this week I really enjoy coures like this similar to last week very very difficult tons and tons of bogeys it’s about who can hold on and make a bunch of pars not who can make a bunch of birdies uh so interesting uh for me and let’s go ahe and jump in my favorite golfers for DraftKings DFS starting at the top here really no surprise Scotty Sheffer is my favorite golfer this week I played him in almost every single lineup last week and it paid off absolutely going to do the same thing again he is only only1 13, 000 on DraftKings that’s 200 cheaper than he was at for the PGA Championship he’s also at lower odds to win he was 4 to1 going into that week and he is just three to one odds to win here this week I’m probably going to play him in just about every single lineup again uh the form is just insane right now he’s finished outside the top 10 just once since August of last year he won five out of the last eight events he has played in uh and he also has a couple runner up and an eighth place during that span his last 10 Majors eighth place win 23rd 3rd 2nd 10th 21st 2 win and eighth crushes in the majors he’s been crushing lately I will not stop playing him and then if you want to talk stats I I mean he’s going to be at the top of almost any stat category you’re looking at right now outside of putting uh but he’s number one in my model on Long courses number one on hard courses number one scoring in Majors uh ball striking and also avoiding Bogies on difficult courses so lot to like with Scotty let’s go ahead and jump into another favorite golfer of mine and that is Victor hofland he is 9,800 on DraftKings 20 to1 outright to win the form uh it’s coming around he struggled a bit to start 2024 I know he won the Tour Championship last year and then took a long layoff really kind of struggled early this season um but uh his last few events 24th 3rd and 15th so I think the form is really kind of there he was within a shot of the lead here last week threw about 60 holes then he fell fell apart he went went and had a bit of a a bogey streak on Sunday but uh he was absolutely In Contention Midway through the day on Sunday I expect him to be able to do the same this week um here at Pinehurst uh as far as Majors go he’s got two missed Cuts but four top 10 over his last 10 Majors uh the irons are really what has been picking up lately for him they are very hot and as far as other stats go he is in my model ranks fourth on hard courses um ranks seventh ball striking he’s second on Donald Ross courses something interesting to look at and 10th total driving and then second on uh those difficult par fours that I mentioned so I will absolutely be pairing Scotty and hland in a few lineups this week I think if you were to fade Scotty sheffler there’s other interesting options there like a Rory or uh maybe even dropping down to start with somebody like Victor hin uh could be really interesting and Xander also I’m interested in him um I don’t know what want to make sure you saw the news today John ROM did with draw uh so at least one less golfer in the very top end of the DK pricing do not play John ROM this week the injury we kind of knew about going in we were chatting about it in our Discord and obviously he says he can’t go now so uh sorry to hear the John ROM can’t play we will hopefully see him in another month at the Open Championship let’s uh jump over to some value plays obviously if you want to play Scotty sheffler if you want to pair him with Victor hland you need some cheaper golfers to be able to fit everything in I’m going to start with sun JM he is somebody that I touted in our Discord last week super happy with the performance he was very low owned he was really cheap last week as well and the price got better on DraftKings this week than it was last week so he’s dropped all the way to 7,100 he’s 100 to one outright to win this week I don’t think sunjay is GNA win I don’t know if he has a major win in him unless it’s at uh at the Masters uh but I think he’s got a good performance in him here this week the form has been coming around again sort of like Victor hin he went through a poor spell earlier this season um but he is top 12 in four of his last five events he was eighth place last week at the memorial he had a triple bogey on the very first hole of the week and then played his way all the way back into a top 10 finish um so really he had a great weekend um as far as major history it isn’t great for sunjay um um if you look at just the logs of his Majors you’ll be a little bit underwhelmed I would say um but he’s had a lot of success at Augusta National and that’s one of the best comp courses I would say here for Pinehurst um there’s also a few others that are not played every year maybe like uh shinicock Hills but as far as an every single year course uh not much better than murfield Village that we saw last week and Augusta National and then uh so those two courses really he’s played well on both of those um he has three top 20s including a runner-up finish and an eighth place both of those at Augusta National uh he’s really excellent around the greens last week and a couple weeks before that as well gaining I think he’s averaging almost four strokes gained around the Green in those two events uh he ranks third in my model for scrambling 10th avoiding bogey on the hard courses and he is 23d ranked around the greens um so certainly at this price you’re not taking a huge risk and I think there’s a lot of upside there for sun JM as well and one more golfer that’s a great value I think that I think I think he’ll be very popular on DraftKings at 6,900 that’s Russell Henley he is 80 to one outright you can see just comparing these two golfers uh Russell Henley a few hundred cheaper and much better odds to win I think that will sort of push the ownership up on Russell here uh his last few Majors he has three all three of them top 40 finishes I’m sorry in three of his last four finishes those were top 40 finishes and that does include 14th at last year’s US Open he ranks third in this field on those Donald Ross design courses um and I think again I mentioned he might be mispriced a little bit maybe by three four $500 on DraftKings he should be a bit more expensive than the 6,900 and in my model he ranks number one around the greens 13th on approach 18th avoiding Bogies on hard courses I really like Russell Henley I think he’s a great option as your kind of your cheap guy in a cash lineup to make everything else fit really well you can play him in gpps too I expect the ownership to be up so if you were to start your lhip your your lineups with Scotty Sheffer and Russell Henley and maybe even somebody like Victor hin three popular plays you’d want to get a little bit different elsewhere you don’t want to play all the chalky guys so here are a couple guys that I am showing as lower projected ownerships that certainly have a very good chance starting off with Shane Lowry um I’m not sure why but on fantasy National He’s listed at about a 5% projected ownership I expect it to be a little bit more than that U but for a a guy with his pedigree he’s 7700 he ranks 18th overall in my model um but I think as far as that percentage goes it probably has a lot to do with the golfers around him in the pricing for just a couple hundred more you can play Hadi batsu Yama and a lot of people will and certainly I’m going to be one of them um Tai Hatton as well as theala also will be very high owned right around him in the pricing but as far as stats go he ranks six I’m sorry he ranks he’s been Sixth and 43rd in the LA at this year’s Majors uh so sixth place a few weeks ago at the PGA Championship 43rd back at the Masters and he has two top 10s at us opens in his history and he’s also made the cut um in each of the last five years so a lot to like as far as his kind of History goes at Majors he’s in good form as well he played well uh last week I think he had a really bad Sunday uh to wrap things up but uh the approach game is really really good for Shane Lowry if he can get the irons going he certainly gives him a chance one more golfer I will mention here and that is Adam senson he is very cheap 5900 on DraftKings 300 to one outright I’m certainly not thinking Adam spencon wins this week um but as far as uh kind of the pricing and ownership goes I have him ranked 51st overall in my model but he is 85th in the pricing fantasy national projects him at just 2% ownership I think he’s a great uh your prototypical sleeper as far as pricing and ownership goes um he ranks in the top third in this field on approach scrambling around the greens putting and ball striking so I think he kind of has the game certainly to make the cut and maybe give you a top 40 finish if you played him as your cheapest guy in a lineup it would absolutely help you to get your Scotty shefflers and some of your other favorite golfers uh with this very low pricing so that is going to do it for this week I certainly appreciate you watching if you want to get uh more information from me and from fantasy uh from fantasy sports Insight join us on our Discord the best way to do that is to go to our Twitter page at FSI DFS also at our web page fsid dfs.com there’s a link to get to our Discord from there in the Discord you will get core plays each Wednesday as well as kind of a a breakdown of the weather I do ownership projections in there and then also post a player pool for anyone doing a big gpp on the um kind of 20 Max or bigger than that so I hope you join me in the Discord and certainly good luck this week uh hope you find the green good luck