Join VSiN’s golf-betting experts, Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelley Bydlon in this very special edition of Long Shots: US Open Edition! In this video, we discuss the tournament details, including the weather forecast for the weekend, recent winners, tournament odds, eligible golfers, and the bets that our experts will be playing!
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this is long shot Von’s Premier golf betting podcast here’s Matt Brown Wes Reynolds and Kelly bidin hey it’s a very special edition of long CH we’re going to talk about the US Open Pinehurst number two over there in North Carolina looking like we’re going to get a dry major for a change looking forward to not having to go if it rains or if it doesn’t rain or how hard it rains or the wind blowing and stuff like that it looks like we’re actually going to get just a true test of who is the best golfer in the world Matt Brown Kelly bidin West Reynolds here and guys unfortunately we already know the answer to that question and uh the answer to that question is Scotty Sheffer and it’s Scotty sheffler by a very very long shot goes out wins again this past week at the memorial with his what would we call it B+ game Bish game and still able to beat everybody and was not able to get tracked down I mean what do we do with a guy that Wes that can he can play his be Plus game his b game and still win his approach game was A++ plus plus gaining 13.2 shots on approach that was almost I think like six it was almost six and a half Strokes more than the second place guy in approach hadwin of course I uh another runner up for me this season with Colin morawa had his chance to uh get the door was left open had his chance but just never could take advantage on the back yeah I don’t know about you West but I said uh Ben Wilson let me know when uh Colin Mora is lifting that trophy and then I’ll get excited about his chances uh that in that tournament once he hit that poror chip on 16 it was pretty much DOA for his chances yeah it is it is it’s just I’m going to say it’s it’s still fun for the sport for us I mean we have a guy doing tiger esque things don’t hate tweet me yes he’s doing tiger esque things right now out there against the deepest field that we’ve ever seen in golf and we head into the US open at Pinehurst number two a Scotty Sheffer a plus 280 number next to his name to win no that is not a top five that is not a top 10 to win plus 280 on Scotty sheffler is minus 140 on the top five minus 275 on the top 10 Xander chafl goes all the way to 10 to one over at DraftKings Roy maoy 11 morawa 14 Victor hin 18 we got a few at 20 at Bryson Des Shambo Brooks Kea lud Goldberg is sitting there at 22 ROM at 25 and everybody else is 35 to1 or longer we’ll talk about some of these as we along the way but Kelly we start with Scotty sheffler and I’m my advice to people this week I’ve gotten texts from friends I’ve gotten people tweet at me and they’re like you know what do you do with Scotty what do you do with this number what’s going on I think my my answer has been so far is figure out a way to get some sort of exposure to him if you live in a state where there’s DFS maybe you just go all in on Scotty Sheffer on every team that you make if you live in a if you if you don’t want to get the 280 number go in and figure out something you really love in one of these exotic markets or whatever it is but I would not be naked to Scotty Sheffer in this tournament yeah me either this is uh I I I’m interest I can’t wait to get to to your bets later and the interesting approach you took on it because I think it is one worth talking about uh I’m with you uh it is a bet for me this week uh I I bet a top five on him this week and I mean the other way I think the way we often talk about it Matt is okay if you’re looking for outright bets maybe look the outright Market without Scotty sheffler I think that’s also fair to still say but though your wording I I’m I’m going to go back to cuz I feel like this is a week I need to have some of him not just you know not just excluding him from markets but I want to be in on sheffler BS Wes we look at sheffler and this is the shortest favorite we’ve had since 2005 at a US Open I can’t poke holes in the number attached to his name if you look as you mentioned not only you just look at his numbers from last week but honestly this run that he’s on right now and then this course and this course fit everything is coming up Scotty yeah and favorite by the way since 09 in a major that was Tiger Woods at hazeline at the 09 PGA Championship why Yang ended up knocking him off tiger finished second as in a side note but yeah I’m same thing as Kelly here I do have a a top five on Scotty Sheffer uh not an outright spoiler alert uh going to be a glutton for punishment again and and not go ahead and bet the under three to one favorite here but yeah you got to have something with it uh now in terms of the matchups too if you want to use matchups now you got to play Big prices on on all these matchups and and he’s matched up against the elite look he’s minus 190 against the PGA Champion for God’s sake Xander chafl he’s uh 240 against Colin morawa he’s uh 220 225 against Rory mroy so I did did I was wondering about that I made my top five bet yesterday and I bet it at like minus 137 I found a 180 on Xander I like Xander this week all I’m saying is I think that’s probably even a more intelligent bet if for some reason you don’t like Xander as much this week you’re only going up against one guy as compared to the rest of the field trying to crack top five yeah it is it really is you look at this you lay this course plays out in in westw we’ll talk to you here about how it is but I mean it’s a it is a long course it’s a par 70 so fewer scoring opportunities out there and that just also favors a guy who is the best in the world at par fours and the guy who is hitting Fairways left and right who is the best approach player we’ve seen in quite a long time and so you start to put everything together and and I’m I’m Tau I was trying to talk myself into some of these other dudes and look I do have some other outright plays I’m not going to say you should not be listening F further in this in this show we definitely have some other outright plays but there are they going to have to be guys that play a plus that like you said A++ pluses and have to have Scotty play B in order for them to win the way that he’s going right now yeah exactly look and maybe the course is going to be the great equalizer here because the course is always the big story in any USGA event and how it’s set up and with the greens being changed and we’ll get in that momentarily with uh you know the speed of the greens the fact that you don’t really have thick rough here you have Sandy expanses and waste areas so this is a different type of Us open now I think it’s going to play a little bit more traditional not but just without the rough it’s not the you know 5 in thick rough but we’ve seen a couple non-traditional us opens at different venues over the years I think we’re getting kind of back to what we normally think of a US Open this week Kelly I know you you like to play weatherman whenever we do our podcast you like to come in but I can tell you this you don’t have anything to talk about Budd no weatherman Kelly this week you don’t have anything to talk it did rain Sunday Monday Tuesday of last week over there but it is going to be eight straight days of 85 Plus if not getting into the 90 territory this course is going to be dried out it’s going to be fast it’s going to be firm it’s going to be exactly as they wanted it to be as we head into play yeah absolutely uh I mean man the greens and we always talk about the green complexes and what these look like here but you’re already getting those crowned greens where everything is going to naturally run off anyways and but if they’re firm and fast like we know they’re going to be it makes it even more likely it’s going to be tougher to stick these approach shots and not let them uh roll off the green and uh around the green is going to be extremely important this week for uh for the guys out there I mean sand safe scrambling you’re basic around the green stuff all going to be stuff you got to factor in heavily yeah Wes as I mentioned it’s 7500 plus yards here if you and I wouldn’t played it to be a 72 they have a they’re going to play it at a par 70 this week but let’s talk a little bit about Pinehurst number two for people that aren’t familiar with the course again like I said if you wanted to it’s G to you know it’s going to cost you and you’re going to have to like make some plans but yeah you can go play it if you want to yeah Donald Ross design originally in the early 1900s most recent renovation Bill C and Ben khaw did the renovations uh uh before the 2014 US Open and uh you know basically took out all the rough and wanted to get it more like the Donald Ross course originally was which is a lot of Sandy waste areas uh of course at 7543 may play a little bit shorter in the yardage because the fairways are actually pretty darn generous uh for a US Open you know 40 yards on average in terms of the landing areas with the width uh but you know you’ve got some really weird stuff here you can get some really tricky lies if you don’t hit these Fairways because most of the fairways by the way they pinch in at about like 300 plus yards uh so you can rip it a little bit off the but you got to be more positional I think necessarily than either long nor accurate uh you have these wire glass plantings like I talk about uh a lot of bunkers on this course too besides the Sandy waste areas uh 117 true sand bunkers in all and it’s going to play quick firm and fast uh uh the big difference though of course the greens which average about 6,500 Square fet they go from bent grass to Bermuda grass this time around speed’s going to be just the same going to be between 13 and 14 on the stim it’s Ultra Dwarf Bermuda which they feel like they could keep better maintenance in the summer and that’s why Pinehurst number two went ahead and made the change because of the Heat and the humidity down there so sir you’re right par 70 just the two par fivs uh about a 590 on the front nine and then number 10 where you start the back nine a little over 600 yards so you can drive it off the te like the the fairways aren’t all that intimidating but you got to position it because these greens they have rolloffs everywhere you know they’re kind of like called turtleback greens where if you’re in a certain spot they’re going to roll off the green and you might have seen the video clip just a couple minutes ago as they were showing a little bit of the flyover these things are rolling and these things will roll off the green if you don’t hit it right so you got to play you know I think Victor hlin talked about it at the press conference uh earlier today where he said aggressive off the tea and conservative into the greens so these guys are going to try to make middle of the greens uh you know most times and pars are going to be very good scores here as you can see right here if you do have a vent Pro subscription you’re watching the video feed of this ball being thrown up on the green watching it roll not just off but way off right into one of the CU another thing about these greens no fringe because that is one of the other defenses of this course Kelly so yes only one water feature like we’re it’s one of those things where it’s not one of these dramatic courses we’re going to go in and see like oh my gosh this is so crazy like look at all this no it’s just the way that they built it they wanted to go in and they wanted to say hey hey you’re going to have to stick these greens and guess what you’re not going to stick all of them and if you can’t do it you are going to have to be very good with your short game you’re going to have to have figure out what you want to do because the other thing it brings into play depending on where you are you could putt it you could chip it you might use a wood to go up there like we’re going to see all kinds of craziness bump and runs Texas wedges all kind of things yeah we saw call more cow earlier this week uh you using I think it was a seven wood practice so I it does I I love these kind of us opens where you do get to see look it’s around the green play is going to be important this week scrambling is going to be important but as you just said matat there’s a lot of different ways you can get that done interesting when it brings in creativity like that to the US Open because we know there are some guys that are a little bit more special in that area than others and some guys I like just to be very straightforward with their game so I think it’s going to be a major factor with who ends up winning this thing absolutely 16 amateurs in the field as well this week bunch of qualifiers and some of those qualifiers you will know because they are actual tour players that qualified to like had to get into this yeah they were only 80 80 plus automatic qualifiers for all of this but when we come back we’re going to get really into this odds board see what we think about the guys at the top as we move into the middle where did we kind of start to build our betting cards this week because again when you have Scotty sheffler maybe it’s just a placement Market World we’re living in this is long shots Von’s premier golf betting podcast here’s Matt Brown Wes Reynolds and Kelly bidin it is long chots here on be and the be and podcast Network as well if you’re catching Us in podcast form and if you sat on your hands and didn’t take advantage of the special that we had going last month one what were you doing but two we’re going to we’re going to let you continue to get something for free just not as much for free we gave you 14 months we’re going to give you 13 months this time to say hey don’t mess around because the way this is going Kelly if you Trend this it’s 14 now it’s I’m guessing next month’s going to be back to I’m I don’t know for sure I’m not in on these conversations but I’m just going to assume 14 13 probably back to 12 next month you might be able to get 12 months for 12 months exactly so go in use the promo code golf GF $199 going to get you 13 months so one month absolutely free and trust me you don’t want to wait around and be the person that missed out on the free month so take advantage of that promo code golf g l f I thought you were going to stop trying to spell that yeah well you know that’s said listen make sure the people know exactly what to type in over there I don’t want them to get a virus on their computer whenever they type spell golf Matt Brown West Reynolds Kelly bidin we are breaking down the US Open over at Pinehurst number two looking at this odds board we talked a little bit about Scotty Sheffer sitting at plus 280 but let’s get into some of these other guys and how we how we attack the top of the board 10 to one on Xander schafle 11 to1 on Roy mroy 14 to1 Colin morow Victor havin 18 to1 three good rounds for Victor havin this past last week in one terrible round and that one terrible round was enough to kind of push him way down that leaderboard all the way down to T8 I believe it was fin finally finishing for him 20 to1 on Bryson and Brooks kPa lud olberg sitting there at 22 Ram at 25 Fleetwood 35 and everyone else 40 or longer we sit here coming into this news that John ROM pulls out of the live event some sort of toe thing and Tow West fungus or he was wearing one he was wearing one shoe today at the uh media availability so he on the grounds by the way wasn’t there on Monday foot foot problems yeah wasn’t there yeah just to to get everybody up to speed on that situation we are you know recording uh recording this uh on Tuesday so we’ll see how things move along but uh he uh W as he said what didn’t show up till his media um availability today showed up wearing one sandal on that toe a lot of you probably saw the video of him in clear pain off the T boox last week when he withdrew from the live event um it is a legion in between his Toes that is infected um and he said today it is something he is you know concerned about heading into the US Open so yeah maybe I targeted him a little bit I I kind of I think I I I did as well help along there with all that look Xander if if there wasn’t a guy named Scotty Sheffer maybe Xander has a couple more wins this season as the guy the guy has played so incredibly well we find him as second on the odds board here right rightfully so I think he should be ahead of Rory mroy maybe even maybe even bigger than he is sitting at 10 to1 guys I was trying to figure out ways to get access to to Xander schafle I ended up getting just kind of pairing him up in an xacto with Scotty sheffler is how I tried to do it but I think another guy that I think if you’re if you’re kind of trying to just make money here this isn’t a cash a lottery ticket type situation but if you are trying to make money Xander shof has been incredibly consistent all year long and it would be hard for me to believe that he goes and lays an egg here in this tournament I mean you’re still getting plus money even at a top 10 I’m sorry anybody who listens to this pod you know at this point this is just an auto bet for me it’s about one of the few things that’s been working actually well in my golf betting this year he’s teed it up 13 times on tour this season he’s finished inside the top 10 or you would have you know won on a t uh T9 or whatever you still would have been if you betting with uh Tai’s pay in full um 13 times he he’s teed it up he’s finished inside the top 10 10 in 10 of those times I’ve bet it eight times cashed on six of them so I’m going to keep going right back to the well it’s not and it’s not just that right it’s not just the trend it’s everything we talk about this course this course still should be a good fit for him everything he’s doing well he’s accurate off the tea we know he’s a great approach approach game player and around the greens he’s still got a he’s got a very solid game and the puttings get keeps getting a little bit better a little bit better as we go so Xander a guy I’m very confident in this week Wes Xander a guy that that actually rided out very well for me in the models I mean it basically him and Scotty and the vast majority kind of the onew spots and a lot of them sure you know there might be a couple versions where he was three or four but never outside of the top five and if you look at consistency on tour this year Xander’s name is is literally right there with Scotty it just doesn’t he just doesn’t have all of the wins to show for it though he did get one yeah look uh Xander had a couple times where where he had to fail this year before he succeeded uh of course at the Players Championship 54 hole leader uh didn’t get it done Scotty Sheffer gets the win and then was second at the Wells Fargo the week before the PGA Rory kind of paced him on the back nine and really ran away from him and then followed it up so you know that old oh man there’s going to be a hangover from you know finishing runner up hadn’t happened you know and maybe maybe Colin morawa finds himself in that situation this week too because uh you know he was in the final group I hope so but he was in the final group at the PGA didn’t really do anything on Sunday ended up finishing fourth and then you know runner up last week at the memorial had a chance didn’t get there so maybe that follows up this week but you know we’ve seen little glimpses out of these guys you you mentioned Kelly also the injury to Rah lud VI o bear it seems like he’s recovered but he had a partially torn meniscus in his knee uh which forced him to drop out of the Wells Fargo and then of course he played the PGA so finished top five last week at the memorial so maybe he is over that but looking how the mark Market gives him a ton of respect yeah it’s it’s a difference I think between Scotty and and ludvig for for me Kelly and I think this is something where I’ve come around on is if I miss out on ludvig it would I’d be okay with that because it’s like he still hasn’t been able to get there over and over again like Scotty is the reason I don’t want to be to to to not be exposed to Scotty in some way shape or form is I do feel I would feel stupid then whenever he goes out and just wins again which it looks like again I I all my models say he should everything that everything that about this course screams Scotty Sheffer and what he does well so I’m okay missing out on ludig this is me basically saying I don’t have a bet on him this week and I think the talent is there I think is going to win a ton of tournaments but I’m if I miss out at 22 to1 it’s not going to break my heart I also think the big difference you know big difference between what we’re hearing injury wise ludig and ROM right I mean Rob I didn’t get to watch it today but I mean right ROM went up there me availability and basically told everybody what’s exactly what’s wrong with him L’s been a little bit more Cy about that right Wes I mean we did finally get information but for a while it was he was a little combative with people of no I’m fine it’s not bothering me yada y yada when we kind of know there is something there um it you know I do think I misspoke earlier Wes I think we’re on the same side with morawa but um you know another guy worth bringing up that I think you are you and I are matching on as well I mean Hideki Hideki is battling through you know he has a back injury he’s always injured but he is always injured yeah that is worth bringing up as well he is always injured um I don’t know any I don’t think there’s anybody else of note to bring up injury-wise but those would those would be the three I would definitely want to uh throw out there yeah I guys Roy mooy 11 to1 like I said I I I think there should be a bigger gap between him and Xander I I’m you know the talents there and and Wes we’re not going to argue that Roy’s whether he’s one of the best players in the world not of course we know he’s one of the best players in the world but we bring up win Equity a lot on this on this show and yeah Scotty steals a lot of that from everyone because he just keeps going out and winning but whenever I look at not only this course fit and what you really need to do well and all of that and kind of where Rory’s game is I’m I’m not comfortable at 11 to one and I don’t know what the number would need to be for me to feel comfortable but I’m I’m not there with him no I and I’m not either and I’m usually somebody that you know can get there off at times with Rory but he could win here but and and he won he’s won the US Open before now that was 2011 at Congressional which was a rain soak course where he just absolutely torches those things or and you’ve seen that many times over the years but this week I’m not sure now Rory I think is a guy that can be creative around the greens and I know when we talk about the stats we’re going to hit on that pretty heavily cuz I think that that’s going to matter a lot this week’s you’re going to have to play a wide variety of shots which he has but you know I’m willing to I’m willing to let him beat me here this we yeah never I’m not I feel like I’m never the biggest Rory guy here on this show I think Wes probably is and I don’t even know that he’s the you know the super Rory fan out there but when I hear Wes is passing on him I’ve got absolutely no interest in him and I I’m with you Matt I is this the first tournament we’ve seen where Xander has been shorter than Rory I think the recent ones they’ve been about even right and maybe this will change around obviously book to book might be a little bit different but this is the first one I can recall where we finally do see Xander shorter than him clearly uh over there so Rory um interesting case he definitely rates out I mean he still rates out very highly for me but not one not one I was interested really at all the next guy on the odds board is the guy that we’re all interested in Colin morawa uh actually just flashed a 16 to one over at DraftKings as we were recording this and Colin morawa on all three of our cards this week and a guy that I was out on at the beginning of the season and I think right so because what he did well wasn’t there and then he has progressed and gotten better and better and better along the way and West now we look at morawa and he’s more of that Colin morawa that we knew a couple of years ago right where he Elite with the irons hitting the fairways doing all the things that we loved about Colin morawa heading in is it enough to pick off Scotty Sheffer at his best probably not but if like we said but if we get B+ out of Scotty Sheffer I do think it is good enough to pick off well and look he’s right there and and the fact that you know that Masters wasn’t one shot deal the fact that he’s followed it up with really good finishes at the RVC and at Colonial and then also at the PGA and then last week at the memorial so he’s got I believe uh four top four finishes in like his last five events so he’s right there and he’s finally playing the kind of golf that made him a two-time major champion at a very young age Kelly I know he’s on your card as well one of the couple of outrights you have yeah absolutely I’m right there with you guys on moral I mean we’re talking about a guy who’s finally found the irons after they were struggle beginning of the year three straight tournaments where he’s gained and gained big on approach and he’s putting well too four tournament four out of his last five gaining with the putter I like his full game right now at this tournament when we get back we’ll get every single staff that we plugged into the model what it said we’ll start letting you know what made our betting cards this [Music] week this is long shots Von’s Premier golf betting podcast here’s Matt Brown Wes Reynolds and Kelly bidin it is long shots here on Von also the Von podcast Network you’re catching us over there and if you haven’t done so you’re watching us on be yes this is a podcast that happens each and every week not just for the major golf tournaments go in find where you wherever you get your podcast go in subscribe rate review we do appreciate all of that as well Matt Kelly and West not going to take U too much time here to talk about these these stats and things because guys I think we’re probably mostly aligned with how we went about it that said there probably is g to be one difference in all this which I do want to talk about but US Open primer up at von.com too I know mine are included in there so there you go go on over there it’s absolutely free absolutely free absolutely free at.com so we talked about each and every week approach is always going to be a stat that we put into the models a disclaimer we are we’re not programmers we do not program these models we’re using other people’s models we’re putting in the stats we find and then uh waiting those accordingly to how much we want those to factor into what the algorithm spits out and so we talk about approach I think long iron play is going to be something we all looked at this week and we talked about with the way that these greens are there’s going to be around the green and scrambling stuff that we weighed pretty heavily but Wes I I think the the point of differentiation between all of us or maybe I don’t know I I don’t know what you guys put in might be how much we weigh stuff either off the tea driving distance driving accuracy good drive whatever whatever factors we decided to put in for stuff when the guys are holding Drive in their hand because I think there is differing opinion how how people are going to be able to attack this course yeah and and look more often than not when we do this it’s not every single week but more often than not approach is probably the heaviest weighted stuff that we have and it is very rare that I think like around the green and scrambling is so heavily weighted it’s usually kind of maybe in the middle it was at the top for me uh this week so uh in terms of off the tea I still use some stuff but it was not one of my top four or five C ories next necessarily I looked at good drives gain I think you could certainly look at total driving if you just kind of want like a macro how is somebody driving the ball even though I don’t think it’s not about distance necessarily nor it’s about accuracy it’s about positioning yeah and getting yourself the proper angle into these greens like you know like I mentioned that Victor hlin said uh rip it you know rip it off the tea and then you got to be really conservative into these greens and and make sure you put in right right spot Kelly I did kind of factor in all aspects of driving which I don’t really ever do but I think distance is certainly going to be an advantage you know it’s always an advantage I didn’t put it in as a soul statistic I did the whole total driving thing which combines accuracy and distance I did put in some good drive stuff I put in even some distance from the edge of the Fairway stuff I had even some Fairways gained more or less to kind of see who has in their back what is as what’s going to be necessary I think to probably fight off double Bogies and things like that because that’s what really what this is going to be about if you hear what these people are saying this is likely to be as difficult scoring conditions as we’ve seen in quite some time overpar might win this thing I mean when it’s all said and done yeah and so I kind of was trying to see who is the most well-rounded with whatever they’re going to choose to go whatever their weapon of choice is maybe it’s driver maybe it’s three-wood I don’t care whatever it is and so I actually did Factor off the t- stuff a little bit more than I thought I was going to so for those watching at home right now I think this is a great shot of what we’re dealing with and I know we talked about this a little bit in the first segment but really not anything majorly different from what you see in a US Open course except for where Fairway Blends into rough normally the rough is just completely gone see how it pinches in like on the video once you get past 300 this is just you’re playing out of these chunky waste areas with what are they calling it blue wire green wire grass whatever it’s called um Pine yeah Pine weed so what’s going to happen sometimes you’re going to hit over there and you’re going to have an okay lie on occasion other times you’re going to have an absolutely nightmare situation so that’s why it’s going to be so important such a premium on accuracy this week for me I understand Matt I did factor in distance definitely leaned more to accuracy stats though I want to make sure these guys are staying out of that uh as much as humanly possible so off the te that’s really really where I focused more but distance it’s a long course you got to be good I I feel like I say this off you got to be you either got to be long off the tea or hitting those long irons you need to be very proficient and for me to be considering Wes I guessed you know and again I’m I’m just going by what I’m hearing I we we hear guys talk about courses all the time and they still go out and score well but I’m guessing these are going to be incredibly difficult scoring conditions so I factored you talk about how much you you factored around the green and scrambling and stuff like that more the normal this is the highest I think I’ve ever put in bogey avoidance as well because it’s kind of like hey for a lot of these holes par is going to be a great score you know like go out get your four and move on you know and so I actually factored in bogey avoidance I think way more than I have in in years past because if we think that this thing does play to you know two under to two over type as a winning score if that’s the case and I got to have guys that aren’t going out there putting up you know doubles and triples I did the same thing too and then put a little three putt avoidance now keep in mind when I give this number uh the three putt rate in 2014 was a little over 5% that was on bent grass greens these of course are now Bermuda greens however the speed is going to is going to be just as I think noticeable as as we’ve seen on these videos so far during the program so I felt three putt avoidance because look you’re going to knock these by and you’re going to have these seemingly makeable putts where you’re from six or S feet miss it on maybe the edge of the cup and it’s going to roll five six s pass and that’s tough when you’re trying to save pars at a US Open and uh you know I don’t want to go all Johnny Miller the former long time color analyst on the US Open but we talked about open pressure that’s what it is right and H you’re going to see that I think on the greens this week so Kelly you plugged in the stats you waited what you thought was important and your model put out some numbers now we are not slaves to the models that we say that all the time sometimes the numbers are so there’s such a discrepancy that we feel like it’s it’s a must bet but I don’t think you got really to that point this week I didn’t get to that point this week so what ended up making your car yeah and I’ll start with uh start with my outrights I did make these uh the I made these over the past weekend actually before US Open odds were kind of pulled and then reposted so the ones I’ve got Pure outright wise now is col cow at 21 to1 and hii Mama 50 to1 you could still find uh Hideki right around that number the only difference probably is I would if you were looking at both these guys I’d be betting with the winner without sheffler Market that’s the only difference so you see the one other guy I added it was Keegan Bradley in that exact Market Keegan has been great off the tea last week and if you got to live through the roller coaster of the full Keegan experience last week I’m going right back at it because I did last week and I’m I’m going in for more I’m not missing out on Keegan Bradley wood in the US Open I like his game right now so that’s where I stand kind of with winter bets um and this is more cow we kind of hit on uh monama is I mean he’s a wizard around the greens as long as that bat can hold up and he’s not spraying it off the tea too much I really like his game here um so that those where I went there I’m going aiming highend though for monama and Bradley we know those guys can blow up and have some issues so I went outright W uh outright you know or winner without sheer with those guys for those reasons um down to the bets I love the most Scotty Sheffer top five five wins last eight events you can’t like you can’t argue what this guy’s doing out there you’re cashing this bet fairly often I don’t care that it’s a US Open minus 137 I’ll play that with Tai’s pay and full and if there wasn’t for an oversell policeman who knows it might have been might the stat might be even better you know absolutely Louisville Police top 10 right back this my these are my big biggest bets last week I’m going right back to the well here Monty uh morawa and then Xander Schley um talked a lot about Xander and Colin already both those guys playing incredibly golf incredible golf I feel like col more cow is on a heater right now I know about about you guys but this is some struggles to start the season with the irons everything is else is rounded into four form uh four top finishes and five in the five last events Wes I think you mentioned that earlier uh round the green games is firing even the putting’s gotten better from what we’ve seen in col moral in the past so really like him this week played him outright top 10 top 20 Tommy Fleetwood then in top 20 Market I think the first time you guys you guys at least or anybody else who listen to this podcast regularly has seen me burn a lot of money on Tommy Fleetwood in the past I don’t think I’ve tou I don’t think I’ve played him once this year top 20 Market I’m going to go with Fleetwood yeah his game has been uh better recently a top 10 kind of rid out guy for me this week like everything he’s bringing to the table wish he was a little bit longer off the te a little bit better with the long irons but still top T20 Memorial t21 RBC Canadian t26 PGA t13 at well as Faro he’s playing some really good golf recently um then top 40 Market SE straa and Aaron Ry that’s where I attacked these two guys I would say some outliers a little bit for me I thought popping in the model is as high as they did um sta I love what he’s doing with the irons and off the tea right now a little concerned about the around the green game Aaron Ry kind of the old same old story can he putt can he play around the green if he can do that I think he has a good week one other thing I should mention about Ry is in this Kelly is you know a lot of times we put in stuff that emphasizes accuracy one of the best accurate drivers there is out there as high as fifth in one of my models I should say he was cracking top five just to say I don’t have him but I do but just to point out like it it’s not just you it was going up for me as well yeah then so yeah yeah he’s uh he yeah he was fourth or fifth in a couple of mind so and then Aaron R over joerger in uh tournament match up Fleetwood over John ROM we hinted at that already I think that’s the best way to attack ROM this week pick a per a tournament matchup if you could find one out there give him the most amount of days for that toe to start feeling bad and hopefully he tees off and then withdraws at some point that’s what I’m hoping on and then matuyama top Japanese player minus 105 I thought that number was uh way too long I thought he’d be way shorter than that so I like that as a prop this week yeah it’s going to be like I said Ry showing up for me as well I’m going to have some substa on my card as well when we come back go through mine and Wes’s card top to bottom here I ended up with more bets than I thought we’ll see if they can cash this [Music] week this is long shots Von’s Premier golf betting podcast here’s Matt Brown Wes Reynolds and Kelly bidin it is long shots we talk golf betting here on this year show also a podcast that you can go in Von podcast Network we do appreciate you subscribe rating and reviewing this here podcast we just went through Kelly’s plays which you can find over at von.com slpi if you are a vison Pro subscriber if you’re not already use promo code golf West you can also find your picks your writeups your uh everything that you do each and every week for us over there but let’s go ahead and get to the goods here what made your betting card this week yeah morawa as we mentioned earlier uh we all love him yeah we we do and hope hopefully that works out at Le at least this time uh morawa look I mentioned top four or top four and four of his last five top 10 and his five of his last six uh you know also has had some decent success in the past on Donald Ross designs some of the Donald Ross designs you’ll see on the tour East Lake by the way at Atlanta not that that’s a direct Coral are because there’s a lot of different ways you can go of course Coral Aries correlations I should say this week uh uh Victor havland at about plus 2250 he’s in the 20 range pretty much cross the board uh Vic bad weekend last week in the memorial was right in there and then shot eight over over the last two rounds to slip to T15 and yet he was fourth in the field in ball striking behind the top three finishers Sheffer morawa and hadwin he’s actually had some success on Donald Ross designs remember he won the FedEx Cup last year down in Atlanta at East Lake and also was T2 in the PGA Championship which was won by Brooks kka at oill so you know I thought that was an interesting correlation this week so I think Victor havin look I know the short game’s always a concern but where you have to be creative where you don’t have to play it one way necessarily right I think that that opens it up and that levels the playing field maybe at least a little bit uh speaking of really good real quick West I Matt I he’s a guy you and I have bet a ton in the past I battled whether to add add him or not ended up passing I I I think I’m okay with that but how did you feel about Vic this week it what Wes said at the very end it was just the short game stuff that W it was big problem for him last year has kind of popped back up again that’s what kept me off of I love every other part of his game it seems like he’s a little bit more confident as well than he was a little bit ago but uh I don’t I don’t I don’t mind it at all I just couldn’t quite get there I do agree though Wes I think with the different options he could have around the green he might end up surprising CU he kind of did that thing at St Andrews where like puted everything he he won’t have to chip off tight lives which is what Hees like he he cannot chip off tight lives he can just putt it yeah yeah he’s going to put I I think like everything right around that green uh another guy really good around the green uh Tommy Fleetwood uh around mid 40ish to one D3 in the Masters earlier this year three-time top five finisher at the US Open I don’t think Fleetwood is ever a guy that’s going to win a US Open on like a big bomb and gouge type of course so he’s not going to win at a wing foot he’s not going to WI a Beth pagee black despite the fact he did finish runner up at shinicock uh to Brooks kka years ago but he’s an accurate driver really good around the greens I think that this is kind of the really good setup for Tommy Fleetwood uh and I also agree with Kelly on Hideki moama 45 to1 gained in all The Strokes gain categories last week at the memorial was second in scrambling uh first for strokes gain around the green when you look at the season instead of maybe just going 24 rounds or 36 rounds so moama look I I think that this is the type of thing where where he will flourish and he will be able to gain Strokes around the green as well kind of the Jedi Master of gaining Strokes around the green and this is not a guy bet and he has not had a great year even though he did make a playoff on the lift tour I think Cameron Smith kind of Pops this week a little bit I if he wins for you I can tell you it’s going to be a bad week for me I know I know I know it’s controversial but he’s been out of side out of mind uh sprays it off the tea but I think that this is a setup where he can maybe get a little bit away away with that considering the width of the fairways and the fact that you know he’s played out of bunkers his whole life you know you’ll have some of these Sandy waste areas on those Australian courses number one in scrambling in Liv recent form obviously doesn’t jump off the page but this is a better fit for him because he’s not a bomb and gouge guy really necessarily either and uh we’ve seen his Wizardry around the greens we still see it even though he has not really played all that well this year and then uh finally Tony Fe now 75 to1 fifth on approach this season ninth T to Green T8 at the memorial gaining All The Strokes gain but the reason why and look it’s been his puttered it’s been struggling even though he’s okay last week at at mirfield Village only hit 50% of his greens and 51% of his Fairways but the ball striking has been outstanding so I think with the putter it’s a very similar principle this week is a lot of these guys are going to have to putt defensively anyway you’re not going to be super aggressive with your putts necessarily and I think the fast greens could be a great equalizer because of that defensive putting that you have to have uh couple props I played and look I’m going to add some placement markets and some matchups over the next day or so up at von.com pii uh Brian Harmon uh plus 230 23-10 fractionally as top Lefty Robert McIntyre obviously the favorite in this market who just won the RBC Harmon’s had the more consistent season runner up to Scotty at the Players Oe baas kind of been struggling with the putter lately Phil Mickelson obviously also in this market but unless us open’s going to be held at Augusta I’m not giving him much of a shot at 54 years old and then Sam barsto the rookie from England playing for the first time uh as a professional in the United States and then Christian bazen H N9 to5 low South African I basically take him over Dean burmaster bermas is a real bombing gouger real bomber off to D played very well at the PGA so that was a a good one for me there but Bez more of the putter and Scrambler here and I think that that’s going to matter more and he’s one of the best on the tour at doing both yeah I um like we can go ahead and Skip straight to kind of where I said if uh if if Cam Smith has a good has a good day it’s gonna be bad for me I actually faded him uh all over the place so I have over 33 and a half on cam Smith placement I have mat ayama over cam Smith I have Max hom over cam Smith I also have Matt Fitzpatrick over cam Smith it’s a full-on fade for me my model hated cam Smith this week and I went in and dug in and he’s just been playing like garbage over on on Liv horrible performance this past week as well I’m I he is a wizard around the greens but I think like you got to be up there in order for that to matter and so I just don’t know if that’s going to happen for him this week so big fade for me of Cam Smith this week so one of me and Wes is going to be happy that’s uh that’s for sure heading back we talked about Colin marala I’m on marala everyone’s on moral we don’t need to go into that anymore only two other outrights for me one Justin Thomas I have him outright if you kind of look at his recent form guys he’s coming around right the only problem is is he can’t putt at all I wonder if he should try to putt left-handed I don’t know like what’s happening with him he’s lost at least 2.4 Strokes putting in six of his last nine tournaments that being said he’s gained on approach in seven of the last eight that’s what we love about him if you look at last Mon’s PGA Valhalla he gained a ridiculous 13 Strokes T to Green but lost over three putting it’s just always when he gets on the green the flat stick Maybe can run hot and and pay off what he’s been doing with all the other aspects of his game so I do have uh outright on Justin Thomas the other outright is Scotty sheffler but not the outright that you’re thinking of I have Scotty Sheffer go wire to wire at 20 to1 um so that’s the way that I’m going to get exposure to Scotty Sheffer I think it’s very likely if he comes out hot that he could just run away with this thing considering that we think this is going to be difficult scoring conditions if Scotty goes two or three under on day one it could be game over for for this field and so I took I took SC wire to wire uh 20 to1 on that so the only three outrights that I have in this one bunch of player bunch of of of position Market stuff for me this week and head-to heads because I just don’t want to get in the way of a truck right I want to get in the way of Sheffer this week and so sep straa you mentioned Kelly you like some sep dracka I have top 10 top 20 and top 30 on him kind of a lad effect for for him trying to get some of what I think might could be the ceiling and then also just get what I think has been really consistent play for him t16 the at the players t16 at the Masters t five at the RBC T8 at Wells Fargo backto back t5s the last two weeks at Schwab the memorial guys been playing very very well yeah there’s a couple of Mis Cuts in there but I mean listen unless you’re unless you’re one of these super elite players you’re going to miss Cuts every now and then so I do have him in there with that Alex noren another guy that was really really high up in all the models for me inside the top 22 in every single version of the models that I ran as high as number five in my 36 round model great on approach great scrambling great at bogey avoidance going back to early May he’s he’s missed one cut and outside of that he’s no finish no finish lower than t23 yeah came back and hit a top 20 after missing the cut he’s been one of the kings of consistency yeah t23 at the open last year T12 at the PGA so he can get it done in big tournaments as well so really do like him there a bunch of head-to heads right so max hom over Patrick Klay Patrick Klay I don’t know what’s going on with him but if you look at his stat profile guys it is it’s unbelievable that he’s even the same golf ER that he was a year and a half ago I have Xander over Rory I have I mentioned all the ones about uh all the ones over cam Smith that I have some other placement Market stuff I have Matt Fitzpatrick under 35 and a half if you look at the short-term models they’re going to like him if you look at long-term models they’re not going to like Matt Fitzpatrick but you hear that weird stuff about him playing with a weight in his driver that he didn’t know and all these different things that were going on but if you look at short-term stuff models really liked him a ton and I took over 45 and a half home on Windham Clark feeding Windam Clark W gu guys he’s been he’s been he’s been so inconsistent he’s been horrible I mean he’s been so so so bad and the fact that you know you’re able to get this 45 and a half or even if he still like creeps into the cut you’re still able to cash this ticket as opposed to just taking him to miss the cut I did like that one as well all of my plays will be up over a couple more that we didn’t get to here on the show will be up over at von.com slpi and of course long shots available wherever you get your podcast [Music]
