The Golfbet Roundtable is giving its picks and predictions for the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst. Kevin Clark from Omaha Productions joins to talk outright winners, best bets to make and longshots.
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I like Tommy Fleetwood this week again this is a guy who has all the chops in the majors hasn’t yet gotten it done shot of 63 Chen Co you know played in the final group with Shane Lowry Port rush I talked to Brandon Todd last week at at the memorial and he didn’t bat an eye when he said I was like well who’s who could be the next first timer he said I can see Tommy fle would winning a major before he wins a regular Tour event so I I definitely think there’s something to that uh you know trying to figure out where that’s going to be is difficult now there is a little bit of a model in terms of what Matt Fitzpatrick did two years ago go right he had he came into the you know the country club without a PJ tour win and was able to get it done so everything about Tommy fleetwood’s game suits Majors the patient style the you know adaptability around the greens I think he’s going to keep the ball in play off the te which as we said is going to be of increased importance this week than maybe some other US Open venues you know driving accuracy is absolutely going to be correlated to success at the end of the day so I listen all these numbers are a little inflated because of where shuffler is on the board but if you get into a reality where Scotty shuer Doesn’t win this tournament I think Tommy Fleet we could absolutely get it done speaking on that that’s going to be my first bit of advice for everyone out there I can’t get abely just just get just get off just get off the outright Market get into the without shefer markets take him out of the picture get in and pick your your poison without him in it and then you don’t have to worry about you don’t have to sweat whatever shefa does I hate agreeing with will but I really like Tommy flood this week as well uh I think he becomes a very good option in that without Sheffer Market coincidentally they still have him at the same price hope they didn’t hear me get on before they change it 33 to1 in the without Sheffer Market at bmgm so I think that’s a great spot to look at him he’s also plus 900 to be top European that is massive value I think he only has to beat Rory L big havland a few other guys uh you’re getting good value there and he’s proven he’s been good in US evens before you’ve got him top 10 conservatively yeah conservatively top 10 uh when I did this I hadn’t seen that top European market I think that’s an even better bet at the 900 uh you get way more juice there for the squeeze and I think there’s every chance Tommy flood’s in this uh when the whips are cracking not only is he near the top in driving accuracy but he’s also near the top in scrambling and we talked about how much that’s going to be needed will he put the two together and he’s a prototype for this course uh so Fleetwood yes I have to agree with Will is a great pick this week we’ve got Wills winner already we’ve got Ben’s Best Bet Kevin let’s go your best bet to make any kind of money this week uh I’m going to go with Russell Henley top 20 I I just I I I bet on Russell Henley him and Tom hogi who I’ll mention here in a second um pretty much every week uh and I love this 16 uh 16th in approach Strokes gained uh 12th in Fairways gained three put avoidance he’s fourth uh both top 20 in both SK short game and in putting uh I like the fact that that he is uh played a lot of golf in the South think which I think does matter uh in these types of events and so I’m going with him just because I believe in him he’s ready for a breakthrough I think we’re going to see him uh in the mix on Sunday definitely like that pick mate I I think he’s also a proven US Open performer I I I seem to remember being live near him at Tory Pines when he chipped in maybe on 11 in the final day to get either in the lead or near the lead uh and then obviously got overrun late but didn’t feel overall in the situation just got beaten by better golfers down the stretch uh when you’re talking top 20 absolutely he’s also highlighted in my column as someone to look at at in top 10 top 20 top 30 uh definitely a good choice the crazy thing about Russell Henley before we get into uh my bet I’m sure will not win but it’s very to have a player be very good at at one element and then switch and be very good at something else Russell Henley came out as as one of the you know a rookie first- timer on the tour and he was one of the best Putters on tour for two three years and now the putting fell off and he’s transitioned into being one of the best iron players and approach players so it’s very rare to be able to switch One Core skill to the next usually you have one calling card and that’s it so kudos to him and that’s a big piece of his his longevity on tour so I I get where you’re coming from on that wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him uh on the leaderboard someone else segue Chris that I think could be on the leaderboard I know you also like him and and we might be collectively just jinxing this guy uh after having him on the radar last week is sep straa you said CER from last year he is just not an absolute heater and and no one’s really talking about him you get him plus 600 here for a for a top 10 bet he’s been t16 or better in six out of his last seven starts going back to the Masters where he started that straight so he’s listen Memorial AUST the Nashville if you can play well and contend on those two courses you can play pretty much anywhere he’s super straight off the te in the top 10 uh second I believe in driving accuracy this week which again we’ talked about how how important that’s going to be and I don’t think he’s going to shy away from the moment especially after having a really strong week last week he faltered a bit down the stretch on Sunday but he was in the mix certainly through 54 holes and well into the final round so I think there’s a lot to like about sub straa this week as one of the the better T to Green players who’s really on a bit of a heater right now everything about straa says pick him somewhere to me this week but then the other part of me says isn’t this streak going to end soon and I know that’s the dilemma with every bet you’re ever going to make in golf when is he going to get off the hot streak my one question is when does SE straka get off the hot streak because his driver is great second in driving accuracy is he going to be able to scramble though this week is my question I mean I I think it’s it’s a guy that has a well-rounded game and so yes you know it’s when you’re at the roulette table right if you’ve got five red numbers in a row do you bet on red to Ry the stre or do you think it’s going to going to Buck the other way you know he was someone that again was on a on my r radar and a lot of other people’s radar last week at the memorial and he really played pretty well he kind of you know overachieved even off of what I was expecting so listen if you’re going to contend at a US Open you need to have a well-rounded game even more so perhaps at Pinehurst than at of course maybe like Wingfoot you could overpower and you don’t have to worry about you know having that creativity around the greens you’re going to have to bring it in all four elements of the game this week and so I think you need to look to someone that has the ability to do that but also someone who is riding some momentum and is not going to get psyched out being on this course cuz listen walking around here even on Tuesday afternoon you look around you can say all right he’s out of it he’s out of it he’s out of it because you can just see them starting to shake their head looking around at these greens trying to figure out with no rain in the forecast how far is the USGA going to push it how fast are these Services going to get and this is one where you can you can really sight yourself out and I think you need to have someone that has the right head space to be able to deal with the ups and downs that are inevitably going to come this week daaca would be called a long shot we know that Kevin how about your long shot who do you got coming out out of this week Tom hogi if I had to pick anybody I mean the US Open it’s going to be the bombers it’s going to be the the normal guys but Tom hogi Ball strikes as well as anybody not named Scotty Sheffer okay if Scotty Sheffer disappeared from the planet that’d be very good for Tom hogi but uh you’re looking at third in stros gan’s approach um you know Cory Connor is obviously is second in in the last 36 rounds he ball strikes as well but but hogi is significantly better at a bunch of the other metric he finds the Fairway to significantly better degree which you’re going to need this week um you really you really can’t get get too adventurous um on those Fairways you do not want to end up in the wire bushes um I I just feel like at some point that’s going to turn into to Real Results and it could be this week if I had to take an absolute long shot I’ll go next I’m right in that range as well I think that you you know hogi is someone that you can lean on especially from the approach uh I’m going to go with a North Carolina guy right we’re in the we’re in the Sand Hills here so I’m going to go a little higher on the board 200 to one JT Poston uh who can go low with with the best of them I don’t think he’s going to be going 72 holes bogey free this week like he did when he won the Windom a few years back but again listen I’ve got a theme with my handicap this week and it’s going to you know M go bust on me but I I need guys that are going to keep it in play off the te Poston is another guy who’s top 10 this year on the PJ tour in driving accuracy it’s just such a key indicator for Success uh here at Pinehurst over the three previous US opens he’s coming in with some solid form two top 25s in his last two starts and he’s someone that I I think is just going to be able to hang around you can get him for plus money for a top 40 finish she’s even not not too juicy of a make cut option but here at 200 to one uh as someone who who might be you know a bit of a feast or famine option I think that uh I think there’s a lot to like and and I do think that especially with his game off the te he’s going to put himself in position to avoid the big numbers which is so key at any US Open but especially this week let’s get cooking come on put him up there total driving number one men Le is he is going to get this thing done if as long as he stays away from those weird ass squirrels we’ve got here then I think he’ll be okay uh look Miner as I said look number one in in total driving this is an Australian style Golf Course obviously not exactly like the Aussie sand belt but it has features it’s got Queensland grass it’s got uh that undertone around the greens and that’s while if you just pick up his scrambling and his putting stats you might be like how can Ben even go close to recommending this guy well I’ll say that none of the scrambling that people have had to do so far this season has been anything like this place so you can essentially potentially wipe out some of that even though we l on it earlier other side of it is they haven’t had to scramble anything like this this is a place where everything’s different you need that creativity you need to be able to play all the imaginative shots he’s grown up playing those shots and he loves the big moment will will he get a win that is another stretch right what can you get in final group like his sister at the US Open not so long ago that’s a big stretch but at 66 to1 it might be worth it uh if you’re looking for some odds too in top 10 top 20s you’re going to get plus money on the C on the chef watch him go he’s pumped and I think he can get it done I hate to say it will but mimu Lee I think Ben has hit the nail in the head on somebody who feels like you did not see that coming how would this guy win his first major and then you go look at him you say oh he’s actually a pretty good golfer I’m sorry but it’s true yeah no absolutely and listen this is this is a course that’s going to produce that head scratcher certainly midw Le is someone that we’ve seen on the leader Wars we you get back to 2014 Eric Compton finished in a time per second 2005 you had Jason Gore you had enen Brown on the leaderboard Michael Campbell ends up winning so this is a place where you’re you know any US Open you’re going to get some curve balls but especially here just with the the the intricacies of this course there’s going to be someone that pops up you’re like man what what has this guy been doing for the last two months or how did he get in the field uh and so so midw Lee we know why he’s in the field but you’re right this is definitely something that uh that he could cook up and it wouldn’t surprise a ton of people Kevin I won’t make you talk about Min wo Lee I will make you talk about the man we’ve been talking about for 20 minutes your winner you’re I mean you’re a smart man you’re someone had to rip the Band-Aid off someone to do it I was thinking about this very similarly to how I viewed momes during the playoffs last year where I’ve got all these stats and I was comparing momes to Michael Jordan and all of this stuff and then every time I try to pick against him I’d say wait I just said he’s Michael Jordan like you can’t do it it just doesn’t my brain will not allow me to do it I have to have some shame here I cannot tell you all of these stats about Strokes gained about Arnold Palmer in 1962 and then say Oh by the way somebody else is going to win oh by the way I like cam Smith this week like that just not in I cannot look at the data and say anybody else but Jeffer now listen we know about golf we know that it’s a huge field we know how random it can be how one you know a speck of sand can can change a destiny all of that stuff it’s it’s why we love it but if you’re playing this a 100 times Scotty Sheffer is going to win a whole bunch of them so I’m going Sheffer just because I trust the data and the data only points to one thing guys one thing he’s not necessarily gone it’s really weird he’s number one in round one scoring average yet he hasn’t been a first round leader I find that strange which is crazy and Tiger Woods literally said as he walked out today whatever the score is after round one it will not get better only worse so if he doesn’t have superst start is he going to be able to come back I don’t know I’m trying to find like I said I’m trying to find we all are it’s just look I did it look I I did exactly what you were doing last week I said I watched him 12 months ago at Memorial kill everyone except for on the greens I knew that he was going to be in there I I took the crappy odds and it came out on top I think I fear that you may be right again I’m hoping for at least some sort of competitiveness amongst the field if he does go out in front or if he is there I don’t necessarily want to see another kimer I’d like to see someone take it to him and as I said earlier the only chance the others have is if they put pressure on him on the greas they’ve got to make it so that his puts all matter once they do that they have a they have a slight chance when you’re talking about the star go ahead will I know you want to add to that no no go ahead go okay because when we’re talking about these Stars uh and the stats that Ben and I went over yesterday there’s three stars who pop in terms of all of our key stats it’s chefer obviously it’s Xander who we’re not really talking about because he just won and the third one is Colin morawa and now I know this is my winner Ben I know he’s your winner as well and my thought on it is I’m going to do the opposite of what Ben did at the PGA when he didn’t pick Xander because he saw the week before after he picked him saying no I’m not picking him this week but he wanted to pick but chose not to I’m doing the opposite thinking that Colin has it in him he is so close has it in him to do this he’s got the game he just needs the luck he needs the balances Ben yeah he’s going to win like he’s going to win sometime soon yes I think that he has a chance obviously I think he’ll be a big chance at TR as well just quietly uh and maybe a bigger chance than he is this week but I’m going with him I will say it’s not right there but honestly take the 1200 in rather than the 1400 just eat 200 get Sheffer out of it take colar Cara plus 1200 with in that market hopefully he wins outright anyway uh the thing that impressed me most I was there uh at at Memorial on Sunday was that he went after shefer he did put him under a bit of pressure just a small mistake on 16 so stopped that run and and and he had a crack he really tried to nail that chip on 18 was pretty close and speaking to him after there was a bit of a chip on his shoulder and this is is what I used to like about Xander that’s why I was used to be on Xander a lot I like the fact that he’s starting to feel a little annoyed that everyone’s talking sheer in fact when he lost everyone was asking questions about sheer and he his back ared up he said he he turned their focus back to himself he’s definitely fired up to play well uh I think his ball striking is brilliant enough that he’s going to be there there BS he’s just going to have to make his fair share of puts and he’ll be in this up to his eyeballs so I am also not making the mistake I made ahead of the PGA where I jumped off Xander after telling everyone he was going to play well at the PGA for months backed off at the last second I’m not doing it this time I liked maraa last week and this week I’m sticking with it Mara to take it to shefer called sticking to your guns yeah I just like I like the notion that we’re just going to have the mor Grand Slam this year where we just each take turns picking him at a different not winning I I think yeah Chris you might you might be up for for PR I don’t know listen I you know going back to what what Kevin was saying but you can’t you can’t find a real reason not to take Sheffer but then even you know we’re having this Scotty versus the field debate which is the most realistic you know X versus the field debate that we’ve had since Tiger but it’s still a situation where you know Scotty’s plus 300 or plus 333 which means the field has a 70% chance of winning right like there there’s a vast majority of of circumstances where someone else will win it’s just it’s a Fool’s erand trying to figure out who the one is going to be that you would take as a opposed to taking Sheffer I’m on as we discussed earlier I get Fleetwood but that’s you know he’s at 10x the odds of Sheffer because he’s probably got a one in 10 shot of winning versus what shefer will so you know I think it all it puts stuff into perspective of even if you look at the the B MGM odds of how they have a market for how many majors will Sheffer end up the season with one is still the the leading favorite he’s minus 300 just to only win the master and then you go from there with with two or three but uh it’s hard to look on paper look at the D as Kevin was saying and find a reason not to back shuffler except for the fact you look out the window and you see the the course that’s crisping up as we speak and the greens that are getting a little bit glossy uh and you think hey anything can happen at this event [Music] [Music] he
