Will Tommy Fleetwood GET THE WIN at Canadian Open? Golf Picks & PGA Tour Predictions | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretswich and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Canadian Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Intro
01:11 – Best Bets
08:22 – Course Preview
23:38 – Outright Bets
45:16 – The Rest of the Best Bets
49:08 – One and Done
52:30 – Bet365 Promo
53:11 – Rapid Fire

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #BlueWireVideo #AuthorNickBretwisch

hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Roberto aruo I’m excited to break down the 2024 RBC Canadian open with Spencer rimar whom you can C whom you can find on Twitter SLX tof Sports and also Nick brwi who you can find on Twitter xstick piix that sticks with an next gentlemen Hamilton golf and country club host this week which it hasn’t done since since 2019 of course the Canadian open was not played between 2020 and 2021 so Ry M was your quote unquote back-to-back champion in 2019 and 2022 Nick Taylor was the first Canadian to win this event in a long time believe it was 69 years last year in Epic fashion as he knocked in a 72- foot Eagle putt to knock off Tommy food in a playoff it was so epic that that they changed the logo to incorporate his putter toss in that playoff it was a great moment Taylor is in rough form this week he’s 70 to1 but we’ve got other Best Bets to break down for the tournament this week Spencer I’ll sling it to you first what is your best bet for the Canadian open I was telling you this off air before we started the show I I don’t know how I ended up with so much exposure for this tournament I normally go to the matchup Market I do have two middling matchups that I’ll talk about later in the show that are kind of Fringe of where the value was on it but but the best bet for me this week is actually going to be a bet 365 play Ben Griffin 60th or better minus 120 all right so Spencer’s got the lone shark swimming North for the Canadian open Nick who are you backing for your best bet this week I’m going to change up what we talked about off air I’m going to go with Cameron young 28 to1 on our partner bet 365 in the outr market let’s do it all right cam young looking for his first win on tour Nick is backing him this week I don’t love the placement betting board this week but so I’m going to do a smaller unit size on this best bet than I’ve done in recent weeks but I’m going to go with Chandler Phillips plus 200 for a top 40 used him as my best bet one time early this season think he was three and a half to one for a top 40 at the valp he finished TI for third I like him again this week but I don’t think he’ll necessarily tie for third again so I’ll back him in the top 40 Market but before we get into that Spencer why are you backing Ben Griffin north of the Border this week I’ll also have Chandler philli thoughts as we move across the show but uh when you look at Ben Griffin here I think it’s one of those Market over Corrections we’ve seen him miss two straight cuts at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab challenge that’s likely where this overcorrection has come into play for a golfer who had posted six top 39 finishes before that little bit of a mishap that he’s had I don’t necessarily want to analyze that PGA Championship miscut too much that’s a venue where his game was probably not long enough for the venue you backtrack it to the Charles Schwab miscut I think that probably tells more of a story since that’s an event where he should have found success but I wasn’t necessarily taken AB back by his second straight week of not playing the weekend as I always talk about on this show I always run my model during an event to feature a projected leaderboard where a player receives their Baseline short game stats over their actual production that didn’t necessarily show this massive underachievement but he landed 72nd in that field when 71 golfers made the weekend I think that flat production when you look at the overall grade that he has in my model does give you that overcorrection that I keep talking about here my model graded Griffin seventh in recent critical metrics that would be geared toward Hamilton golfing Country Club and then the long-term data like the past success when he does get to take on a shorter venue so uh this was one of the bigger bets that I have made in this bet 365 Market I I normally bet them to win a half of unit on it I bet this one to win a full unit all right I like the lone shark there think he’s a guy who’s got a high floor as well and last time we went into this Market believe I had Alex noren top 5 or 59 or better for the PJ Championship which he never it never was a sweat it was in the money the whole time hopefully we get the same result this week Nick I’ll sling it to you why are you backing wake Force demon Deacon Cameron young this week Club down cam as uh Spencer and I have been talking about for a while and Cam Davis so I think anybody named cam that’s a bomber we’ve seemed to prefer them on shorter tracks which is pretty interesting but for me it’s uh overall just the ball striking in that like the wedge play to I guess it’s still even like short iron buckets if Cam Young’s hitting from 150 to 175 that’s probably still like a pitching wedge to or 99 for that guy but um same reason we kind of levitated towards him at the Open Championship at St Andrews it’s similar yardage buckets we’ll see the approach from um but the importance to hit the Fairway here especially with all the rain coming this week I think the rough’s going to be nasty thick uh it graded very similar to me than uh PJ National and that’s where we saw cam young sneak inside the top five with gaining Strokes obviously on the putting green which is going to be very important this week a lot of 10 to 20 foot putts that’s probably my only concern with him but he is having the best season of his PGA career Tour on the greens so overall just a number grab at the end of the day I had him proper at 22 23 to one so to get 28 to one with someone that short to have that much of an implied probability Edge I’m going to take that every single day and it was between him and theala at the top of the board I’m going with Cameron young here so Nick is wearing North Carolina colors he’s backing a Wake Forest guy Spencer’s wearing Wake Forest colors he’s backing the North Carolina guy now settled I’m going to get into my best bet I’m here in Austin Texas but I’m backing a Texas in a Maggie uh Chandler Phillips plus four plus 200 for a top 40 I like how he’s done on the club down courses he’s a rookie on the PJ tour so I’ll give him a pass for the t-57 at the Sony in his first event as a pro I think that if you look at some of his statistics he’s had really poor driving weeks in tournaments where he knows that he’s going to have to get to 25 under par to compete and the driving is wide open that’s not the strength of his game given that he’s relatively short even though he is one of the younger guys he’s just not a big dude but the strength of his game is that he’s really solid on approach and His short game is pretty strong as well he’s coming off the best the best week of his career on the PGA tour again he’s rookie around the green last week tied for 12 at Colonial which I think it was a good test of where your game is outside of the driver and he delivered gaining Strokes on approach putting and around the green and off the tea he wasn’t as negative as he normally is but he still lost Strokes I think that this week as long as he can find the fairways and in his last fours or last five starts on the PJ tour he’s been above average driving accuracy four times and overall he’s relatively accurate so I think that he’s going to give himself enough chances and he’s strong enough throughout the bag that he can at least get the top 40 I’m not sure that he can win quite yet but I like his Moxy and we saw him at the Valar get pretty close to it so I think this is a type of of course that he can can excel at and ultimately the driver I think is what holds him back from winning but in a relatively weaker field this week it’s an awkward spot where next week is the memorial after that and then you have the US Open and then another signature event after that so a lot of guys just aren’t going to play four or five weeks in a row so they’re taking this week off and I think the Chandler Phillips can capitalize on some of that relative lack of depth in the field this week so we noted ear ear on in the show that this is a different golf course that we have seen now we haven’t seen since 2019 so let’s figure out how relevant those results were coming up to this week of course there was a renovation done to the course after the tournament ended in 2019 so Spencer I’ll sling it to you how are you modeling Hamilton Golf and Country Club this week so you talked about it Roberto but this course has undergone three major Transformations over the last 100 plus years you look at 1914 when this was put together you got renowned English architect Harry Colt to design 18 of what ended up becoming 27 holes at this property that you can find we saw Robbie Robinson at his flare in 1974 when he included the extra nine holes that you can find on the property when you Traverse the land obviously only 18 of those locations will be used this week for the PGA Tours return to Hamilton however here’s the important note here and this is where I I I think that your question is kind of the million-dollar question for all these tournaments we keep talking about that are pumping millions of dollars trying to restore them into previous iterations and uh previous viewpoints of what the course actually looked like so Martin Ebert Ebert sorry performed a restoration that cost $ 11.5 million that tried to put it closer to what Colt had envisioned in 1914 this is a venue that we haveed very infrequently on the PGA 2 or even before any of this you talked about it Roberto the last iteration of that taking place in 2019 when you look at what happened that year you got this tight strategic test off the te it diminished driving accuracy by over 7% versus a standard tour stop the one minor change we’ll get this go around will be the increase from 6,832 yards to a venue that now stretches a little over 7,000 yards we’re still talking about one of the shorter venues on tour by PGA Tour standards which is where Rory mooy’s runaway Victory 5 years ago probably doesn’t tell the complete story of the challenge that the layout possesses for the field when you do dive into that inferior yardage total Rory lapped the tournament you you don’t win by seven shots without having everything throughout your bag he gained with the putter the driver was a massive weapon for him he essentially played this venue as a through bomb and gouge where everybody else was being much more conservative and doing your Force layup so when you look at the score of what actually got included there I don’t want anybody to look at that and see that Rory got into the minus 20 and greater than that even under par to win that tournament it was a pretty challenging course and you’re going to get this rebuild of all 27 greens it’s going to include your classic Bentgrass and POA split Ebert also added new te’s and modernized bunkers that’ll help the Cheng that the facility had 5 years ago but do so in a fashion that plays better for today’s game regarding positioning I do want to note how undulation will be a critical component for a green complex that did marginally expand in size to 6,000 feet that’s closer to the PGA Tour average and does have the potential to add a little bit less around the green impact than we got the the last go around here but I don’t necessarily want that notion to be minimized of just how challenging and consequential it is for all players to be able to salvage a score when they do miss a green in regulation that doesn’t necessarily give any of the answer about what’s going to happen this go around unfortunately I decided to play Things much closer to what you would expect since we don’t have long-term data here to pull from even without any of the restoration or transformation of the course that we’ve gotten that’s going to include in my model when I ran it your basic expectations how someone plays at a short course how does somebody play at a par 7D venue I know there’s a lot of people in the space talking about when you get tournaments like this it actually helps in a modeling Outlook I don’t understand that answer I want as much data as we can get and when the last form of information I can pull from this course is from 2019 and now we’ve backtracked it and rebuilt it to look more like how it looked in 1914 I don’t think it’s going to be a massive change that’s taken place like you you have all those new key details that I that they’ve added to the mix here but I I don’t necessarily want to get caught building a model that looks 100% similar to what we got five years ago but I also don’t want to build a model that takes vice versa of that equation I would rather just keep this simple I think sometimes people try to convolute the process and that’s coming from somebody who talks about my model every week and my whole goal is how mad scientist like can I make my build that’s fine when we have years and years worth of data it’s not necessarily the route that I want to go when there’s limited data to begin with and now the changes that have come into the mix if if I can look at this course and see I know it’s short I know it’s a par 70 I know the green complexes I know the undulation I can rebuild specifically what some of those proximity ranges will look like but we don’t need to go in and try to over complicate the process yeah I am intrigued to see how the approach buckets turn out and I’ve been kind of weighing this question of how much of of how much driving ACC accuracy is necessary this week but also softer conditions I think will play a role and when we consider that what we’ve seen recently where Quail Hollow and Colonial both had redesigns recently where they have brand new greens the greens here are a couple years older given that the renovation was in 2019 and so they’re not nearly going to be as firm and fast as those two tournaments that I mentioned recently so I think that it’ll be a lot softer conditions I think it’ll be very amenable to scoring it’s not a very long golf course and also in the five years that have transpired since the last tournament was played here the improvements of the ball and the driver are both I think significant and so I think will be an element of bomb and gouch necessary for players to win the tournament obviously distance is always an asset and in my upside plays I definitely want guys who have the ability to bomb it out there and also Spike with the putter so that’s something that I’m looking at this week approach play I didn’t constrain it into specific buckets as much as I would do on other courses and also I think it’s relevant to note that this is another par 70 just like Colonial last week where there are only two par fivs and the par 3es are going to be relatively more challenging than the rest of the golf course there also some Force layups so there’s an element of positional golf involved this week but nonetheless I still want guys who are going to be able to take advantage of those par fives and some of the sofware conditions because I think there will be some dog legs that and bunkers that the bombers can carry that others can’t and that will be a big separator this week so even though it’s not on as many holes there aren’t as many straight power fors that the bers can just take more trouble out of play than NE than usual I think that it will still be an advantage and I need some driving upside to be on my top 10 or outright bets this week very quickly before we move on Roberto and if Nick wants to add anything to this I’ll kick it over to him after but the two points that you brought up that I at least want to mention and double down on so you talked about the soft conditions and and all the rain that’s been in the forecast leading up to this tournament look at the long venues like like any of these long venues that we’ve had when we’ve gotten soft conditions on this it is just ramped up the scoring potential and now you get a short course here so I am interested to see I I don’t necessarily think and this is maybe where I I could end up being wrong I don’t think we get into the total that Rory got to for a winner that ended up being an outlier sort of a finish like I talked about my guess would be this is probably somewhere in the 16 17 18 underpar sort of range there the other note to that would be most of this distance for a course that really doesn’t have very much distance to begin with does come on those par 3es they’re three very challenging par 3es that are over 200 yards and a fourth one that is going to still push 180 yards so all your par fours for the most part fit into that for for the most part of this answer at least 0 to 450 yards like that’s that’s your bucket you’re really not stretch any longer than that and you’re going to really be between 300 to 450 yards but that’s how I ran my model with it for the par for scoring there was a ramped up inclusion or um a mix into my model there of how I ran it trying to find Par Four scorers from that range and people that could Salvage their score on the par 3es and as you talked about Roberto I still think the par fivs are one of those separators of where you can produce a total so weight at scoring for me was very important metric this week Spencer did you weigh the uh the short to middle irons like heavier than usual yeah okay I’m doing the same thing especially like with the added size and greens I did kind of take off a little bit of around the green so I do appreciate you saying that so I think I’m on the right path if you’re on that but what one of the things I did just because we do have so many questions around around the actual proximity ranges this was one of the areas where I at least looked at the 2019 tournament tried to figure out where the proximity was coming did reproject it for where I thought it would be based off of the new driving distance totals but I also added in a mix of what I called heightened proximity so that would be all your short irons and then it also throws into the mix 200 plus yards that’s going to play for some of your par fives and your par 3es there yeah that’s all right I feel like we’re on the same path here and once I go through my outright card I think it’ll uh it may raise a couple eyebrows but for the most part I kind of did exactly what Roberto mentioned with the drivers um everybody on my card for the most part is still a bomber I’m not anticipating the the Rory situation but yeah looks looking at books right now winning total is at eight 18 and a half or 19 and a half interesting so depending where you’re looking I think I was going to say I think there will be more golfers because Rory won at 22 under nobody else was closer than 15 under I think there’ll be not very hot take a lot more golfers lower than 1500 par not necessarily a lot but at least five but I think that the winning score will be closer to that 20 underpar uh depending on how soft the conditions are should be a bunch leaderboard this year too right I don’t think anybody walks I guess it’s his to lose right but hey we never thought that we’d see Davis Riley win by seven last week so or five last week especially when I have a Keegan Bradley ticket my God also real quick Roberto I wanted to text you what about our boy we’ve been talking about him all year long you used to kick his ass in junior golf but MC Meisner top five in it I think I beat him like once or twice but he was also like a good year and a half younger than me so I never he the only problem is he stopped playing in my competitions when he was like 15 because he was way better so um I’m intrigued by Mac Meer I am gonna sprinkle a top 40 bet on him he’s out there at plus 130 and he just really looks like he’s coming into his own game here at the PJ tour level there’s really no weakness in his game surprisingly his driver I don’t think is as much of a strength as it could be given that he’s a bigger guy and I think could be a little bit longer um or at least his off the total his Strokes gained off the te numbers aren’t as strong as I think they could be if he hits a little bit more Fairways but looking at his driving accuracy in his first eight starts on the PJ tour was below average driving accuracy every single week in his last five he’s been above average four out of five and I think that’s really helped and his approach play he has the two best events of his PJ tour career in his last two starts has been really solid throughout the bag tying for 13th at martle Beach and then tying for fifth last week at the Charles schwap challenge so I think there’s a lot of upside or I think MC Meisner is a solid PJ Tour player no real weakness in his game and I think there’s more upside than we thought significantly a month ago so I’m very intrigued by him I think that this is a good time to kind of strike while the iron is hot while expectations aren’t quite very high and so I want to get wanted to get that um safety Market in the top 40 at plus 130 so I did that without tis and pyton full but I think you can do that around plus 110 out there as well so worth looking into um and I’m very intrigued because he’s definitely putting it all together and it looks like since that top 10 at the Valero tyer 10th he’s really played some solid golf four top 23s in six starts which that t23 is from theer classic of New Orleans so read into that what you will with it being a two-man event yeah quick question before oh go sorry Spencer no no no Nick you can go and then I’ll I was just gonna say the guy that graded first before I like actually filtered for him in the field for first in expected Strokes gain uh approach for me why is he not in the tournament JT Poston this is a is he not a perfect horse fit on paper for what we think I guess you know obviously the renovations everything happened but going to be a light out putter on the bankr and everything like like my I’m just really upset I think he played last week and so just a situational spot where he wasn’t gonna play five straight weeks just I wanted in there like my model spit out in arbitrary like 28 to1 and I was like for JT Posen there’s no way he opens that short so I was in the field like all right well that makes sense so I can’t do anything with that I’m still going to bet JT posting though if there’s any book out there that wants to offer me 40 to one I’m posting this week I’ll take it it’s like we’ve talked about Nick on on every show that we’ve done together it’s the scheduling has been so complicated for some of these golfers and posting at these Club down shorter courses I I talked about it last week he was on my outright card he didn’t quite obviously get the victory out of it but a very good performance nonetheless it’s just some of these golfers the statistical data that they’re actually providing I think it’s skewed in in a lot of ways with it just because the courses are not what they would typically be playing when they’ve qualified for anything that’s elevated or major championship like yeah looks like the only time he’s been out to Canada was 2022 from the looks of it didn’t go in 2019 when it was here but I don’t know if I’m this coach would be like think this is a well he was back there in 2018 but yeah I don’t know just graded out as the best iron course fit player for me and and isn’t in the field so that’s fun I’ll move us into the outright card Roberto because it’s it’s a kind of a good segue with the Meisner conversation that we were having there were about four or five extremely deep Long Shot sort of bets that my model liked this week but one of the things when I built my math and this is where it’s complicated when my model loves the top of the board it doesn’t mean that there’s necessarily going to be value in that section but there is this connection of how my math views that portion of the slate and then the correlation with how much exposure I want to take on for the week so that either means that I get very aggressive at the top of the board where there is value or I want to take a bunch of long shots and you look at this tournament you get Rory Fleetwood the gala Burns norin those were all answers that my model really liked it didn’t necessarily like every single one of those names for the price that you had to pay but there was increased win Equity from what I would normally want to see in that position there were four or five golfers Meisner being one of them I thought when things opened on Monday you could argue that he may have been the best bet on the board that got crushed that number moved quickly the other name would be your guy Roberto Chandler Phillips where I agree that there could be an answer where potentially this isn’t going to be the market that you want to bet him in maybe it’s a top 40 I took him a top 20 at plus 550 maybe those are the better markets but I ended up throwing a dart on Chandler Phillips I also took sahit the gala at 22 to1 I wanted to get to either Fleetwood theala or burns on my card maybe this is where I’m a little bit too cautious in my outright approach that I didn’t take more than just one of these names I didn’t want to play it more aggressively than what I ended up doing I tend to think that the narrative around this tournament leads to a much better inter tournament betting card where I only have a half unit in play right now and it’s going to give me the ability to add any of those high-end options that I’ve talked about when I geared my model toward Hamilton Golf and Country Club the gala graded third for weight at scoring he also graded third for projected approaching and he also landed third for uh recent Strokes gain total when you look specifically for Hamilton I don’t think there’s a massive difference between him and Fleetwood I went with the Gallo when this opened because of the minor price boost that you could get here at 22 that number has fallen more into the 20 to1 range now and we’ve seen Fleetwood go from I I you can correct me if I’m wrong on this Roberto I last checked earlier this morning but I think you might still be able to find a 18 to one on Fleetwood but even that number almost everywhere has been on the Move also so that was just a price scrab between the two of them there and then the option that I bet that I thought was the best wager on the board when everything opened and I talked about this on the Action Network Best Bets colum you want to say that Rory Fleetwood theala are the favorites that is completely fine by me that’s what my model has also it’s more of that secondary range of names with Burns nor and everybody else there where the prices are close to being accurate but there was a golfer in Tom Kim and unfortunately that’s another situation where it’s been a runaway train that we’ve gotten that number has moved it opened at 50 I got it at 45 it’s now into the mid to low3s from what we’ve gotten but I think this was just a price error that the books had put up you’re never really in these positions to where Tom Kim should double the price of names where if you compare Kim versus norin and burns the upside portions of my model still likes Kim more than it likes the other two thought it was a really big mistake that books made to begin this week and there’s a reason why that was corrected as quickly as it was and um this is not Square money that’s entered the market this is legitimate sharp money that has pushed this price down I would argue that 28 to1 is what I had being the proper going rate which is very similar for what I would say with Alex noren and very similar with what I’d say for Sam Burns it’s just even still with that movement that we’ve seen Tom Kim would technically still be of value although the one thing I want to note on that I hate coming on this show and trying to catch a number or and tell everybody to catch a number that’s already moved so precipitously from where it started but 28 to1 would be the proper going rate for whatever that’s worth I feel like you’d still want to advise you know Loosely advised taking there’s 35s out there still in the marketplace we talk I think it’s a good price yeah there’s still value yeah 35 to one is available for Tom Kim on bet 365 our sponsor and also Fleetwood is available at 19 to1 at bet 365 as well we doing the Fleetwood thing I don’t have room for it but I just is there a better course fit for Tommy Fleetwood than this one I mean RB RBC here I was gonna say a course like man it he grades so well it’s got to happen right such a having I don’t know I think he’s goingon to be my one and done if I still have him that’s bad news for me I won’t be playing catchup I guess we we’ll get to that in the one and done I’m playing a different game at this point that’s fair I’ll hop into my outright card um I got started with Sam Burns I will note that theal is someone who theal is the first person who missed my card like Spencer I kind of wanted to leave room for or I definitely wanted to leave room for in tournament betting just with their being relative unknown given the golf course so I have Sam Burns at 30 to1 as the shortest golfer on my outright card I love the upside that he has off of the te and with the Putter and also I like that he he’s been converting his looks into birdies so far this season he’s fourth in birdie or better percentage overall fourth in bird or better conversion percentage conversion percentage is amount of birdies made divided by greens and regulation so when he’s on a green he gives himself a chance or he converts on his chances but also he’s converting in general too and also it’s not like he’s just doing this on the par fives he’s on the top 36 on tour in bird or better percentage on all three of par three par fours and Par fivs so I like that I’m always questioning whether it’s more important or less important to play the par fives well when there are two par five just because you need to capitalize on both those opportunities whereas there just only two opportunities so I still think it’s important for those par fives one on each side here at Hamilton I also like that he’s been playing better on approach last year big down year for him in terms of approach play but he’s been much more consistent this season and he’s gained on approach in eight of his last nine tournaments so I really like that he is trending in that direction we’re getting a bit of a discount I believe because he had his worst putting week in two years at the PJ Championship it was only two rounds but lost over five Strokes there I am not too worried about that I’m willing to write it off as an outlier and I like just the upside for him he hasn’t been contention very recently this year but he had a run of three or four straight top 10 between the American Express and the Genesis imitation ation so we know that he has upside and of course he’s won several times on the PJ tour so I like that he’s a closer moving down the card I like to or I like o batia this week he has been too outstanding on approach to ignore where he’s gained over 1.75 Strokes per round on approach in four of his last seven tournaments that right there was enough upside to for me to say yes at this number in this field I love ox’s up side and if he needs to hit Fairways he showed us at the Valero Texas open on what is a significantly longer Golf Course than here but one where you can’t be too wide off the te that he can get it done off the te with his driver he’s not exceptionally long but he’s long enough that he can make it work especially if there end up being some firmer conditions where there’s some roll out but I’m not anticipating that this week and then so he’s the shortest guy I have on my card but I got two other bombers I got Davis Thompson who’s accuracy off the team has been lacking this year up until his last three starts and as a result three of his four best Strokes gain off the t- weeks this season have been in the last four weeks he’s above average at everything but not Elite at anything and I believe that this uptick off the tea is what sets him over the edge in terms of being able to put it together and as we saw at the American Express last year on a course where you need to hit Fairways and and you or on a course where you just need to make birdies it’s going to be a birdie Fest I like Davis Thompson’s ability to go low moving on to my lone Canadian on the card I got Taylor pendrith at 6 at 65 to1 his driver is a weapon again after shoulder surgery or after a shoulder injury I shouldn’t say surgery two of his three best off the tournaments this season have come in his last three starts which if you remember back at the end of the 2022 season driver was a huge asset for him he made the President’s Cup team I think that he is coming back into the form of being a top 50 or so golfer in the world but he’s not being priced as such I know that his numbers don’t look great overall but I think a lot of that is skewed because of the injury and now look at his recent results he’s done a lot better than the prior sample size of the year since the injury happened at Tory Pines one other thing to note for him the putter is a big asset he’s gained Strokes putting in 10 of his last 12 tournaments and he has some upside there as as well so if he plays well on approach which by the way when he won at the CJ cup byr Nel a couple weeks ago didn’t even gain Strokes on approach so the fact that he has such upside with both his driver and his putter if he just plays well on approach he can contend and if he has a great week on approach which we haven’t necessarily seen this season but if he does I know it’s possible he could win this by a couple shots so I like that all these guys have the upside I think to win by a couple shots this week I don’t have anybody lower than 65 to1 on my card right right now but I want to save room for in tournament betting it was a really big just very quickly Roberto it’s a very big group and one of the things I’ve been doing in my model and I’ve been putting it into my article uh that I write over at Roto baller is I like to look at the categories that I run and the players that grade inside of the top 60 of the field uh for the metrics that I ended up looking at then all four names that you talked about were four of the 15 who landed in that m uh three that I talked about were three of the other ones there so we have seven of the 15 based off of that list and when I’ve been running that so far this year not every single go around Davis Riley didn’t fit it last week but a lot of the winners have landed in that very consistent range of that mix so I think between your card and my card and we’ll see what Nick has on tap for us right now there’s a lot to like about like pretty much every wager that you made were that next here of options that I highly considered and even if it doesn’t come from an outright wager I think that there’s portions of the market to where you can consider Davis Thompson in a matchup because of the safety that’s in my model I I think Ox is a really nice upside choice if you want to bet him as a top 10 and and anything of that nature there’s a lot of intriguing options on this board though yeah I thought there were quite a few guys in that 40 to 80 to1 range who are playing some of the best golf of their lives right now who are very intriguing and maybe just were a little bit higher than I would have liked them to be for example Keith Mitchell who is absolutely flushing the ball but can’t putt I wanted to air more toward the side of good Putters than Putters who might have questions about their upside all right yeah did you heard you’ve heard Spencer’s picks you’ve heard mine Nick who you got for your sticks picks this week well he’s basically hit all of mine so uh I did go with the gala I had room for one more on the card at the top of the board Cameron young started my card at 28 to1 theala at 22 to1 so I’m going to ride and Spencer there um you talked about AE batia I felt like how Spencer talked about Tom Kim is kind of how I felt about AE I had AE at 42 to one so to see 50 pretty much everywhere um was pretty intriguing to me obviously he’s going through a lot was super close to Grayson Murray I don’t know if that’s if that’s good or bad for his game but you know he’s going to go out there maybe we get a you know a very decorated performance out of I think he’s one of the highest upside type of guys in the field Davis Thompson it’s it’s so awesome to see a guy that we’ve been talking about for I don’t know what a year and a half now guys like we’ve been believing in his game just like I’ve been believing in MC meiser’s game since Roberto wed his asked 15 years ago um 55 to one in a pretty strong field for Davis Thompson just shows you like how much bookmakers respect this game I think Spencer said it best a matchups probably um like the second type of exposure I was looking for with Davis Thompson just because he does grade so safe and you’re going to get him against guys like EVR hadwin that have some volatile volatility um so I love that the only two guys that I have that you guys did not mention is Daniel Burger on bet 365 at 90 to1 obviously if I’m taking Cameron Young and the gala I need to go down the board a bit to get some more value um for burger like he’s still grades it’s longer sample size that’s kind of weighted in there but he grades one of the best wedge players to short you know short iron Fairway finders in the field obviously his putting this year has been horrendous but historically he’s one of the best Putters on the PJ tour in my lifetime of watching the game so if I just have to bet on on the come that his Putters coming back to life the approach game start to you know be the Daniel burger that we know he’s hitting Fairways I just think 90 to one’s a number grab I couldn’t pass up and for some reason my model loves Gary Woodland I don’t I did not expect him to be a good course fit but the long par 3es he grades as a top five um expected like proximity for that and the putter for Gary Woodland is actually coming around a little bit I believe it is three St straight rounds that he has scored with the putter four um not counting the xer so RBC Heritage a gain Strokes putting Wells Fargo Championship he was lights out putting obviously they were on the green and and ball striking overall wasn’t fantastic PJ Championship he gain Strokes putting and what was a putting contest so that’s kind of interesting to see and then Charles Schwab again last week so something’s going on with this putting and I know the ball striking upside is there for 150 to one like Gary Woodland can certainly finish dead last or missed a cut I understand that but my numbers had him at like 105 so 45 points of value again but very minimal percentile when we’re going that far down the board but I’m going to ride it Gary Woodman’s a guy I want to root for anyway so that’s a little bit of a heart play but other than that yeah I’m I’m with you guys on thues I’m with you on oxe and I’m with you on Davis Thompson I like the Woodland play I hadn’t looked into him a lot but there’s five there four straight tournaments as you noted that he’s gain Strokes with the Potter after being a huge negative so those are the kinds of swings that can be really valuable to try to capitalize on before the markets completely react so I think that maybe a first round leader or top 10 uh probably the better way to are also very I don’t think he’ll actually close four rounds but I think maybe first round leader top 10 is probably a better bet for Woodland you’re you’re definitely dead on there just the around the green game makes me a little hesitant but at 150 to one I’m intrigued um I also wanted to note that Daniel Burger in his seven prior years on the PJ tour of course he wasn’t playing in 2023 because he took off from the US Open in 2022 all the way to the beginning of 2024 with that back injury but in the Seven Seasons prior to this year on the PJ tour he’s gain Strokes putting every single year and when you got a back injury it’s hard to be hunched over putting and chipping all day long and so it makes sense that this is the last part of his game to come back whereas you’ve have for example other more high-profile injuries like tiger with legs and everything where he can only Chip and Putt so it’s a different way of coming back from it he is going to become a good putter at some point and I’d rather be on Nick’s side where you’re backing him before the turn comes and then he’s priced out of everything so I’m intrigued by Daniel Burger I haven’t bet him this week I highly considered him at 90 to1 among the guys outside of the he was the first person who missed my card so I’m looking hard at Daniel Burger I might play him for a top 10 or top 20 just because there is the other downside of the short game which hasn’t been an asset at all this year but I think that the ball striking which has been an asset both off the te and on approach is real and he’s super accurate off the te so if this is a week where you need to be hitting Fairways he could be a great fit and also we’re not going to have too many other chances to bet him because he’s not into the Signature Events I don’t think so last chance to see him but for a little while last question I had for you you mentioned uh these guys in the 40s that are playing some of the best golf and in years um obviously Keith Mitchell what about M Scott I had a big Edge on not a big Edge obviously I would have taken it but I kind of ran out of room especially when I took OE I I had a larger Edge on OE than I did Amscott but Amscott checked the box of someone I should probably be looking at I’m very intrigued by Adam Scott I I was looking hard at him minus 130 over Eric Van royan I that play it I just don’t love Theus 130 if it was- 120 I’d already have a ticket intrigued at 38 and a half better than 30 and a half sorry go ahead Spencer no I was just going to say it it was minus 120 I I think I might have moved the market on that one is that already in the article yeah all right well I didn’t know that one okay so Spencer likes ad scotc son of a [ __ ] Market yeah there’s here’s the thing though with I I like Adam Scott also he’s been a player for the last two months that has been consistently being pushed up my model and we haven’t necessarily got a lot of those high-end finishes we got the best result that we did from him last week uh where I thought the game looked good and and the statistics ended up trending in the right direction there I bet him at minus 120 over van royan as I talked about um it’s 1:30 now I do think though that Davis Thompson Keith Mitchell all those names that we’ve discussed if you’ve already missed that movement I like both of those two options also against Van royan van royan has a little bit more upside in my model than I typically would want to take on for one of these opponents he ended up climbing to fifth in my sheet in recent production when I weighed it towards Hamilton that’s normally not the golfer I’m looking to take on when the stats are trending in that direction but some of those short par 70 outputs that I got from him in my sheet were highly Troublesome so I like taking Adam Scott in a matchup there and unfortunately outside of that matchup if you look at every other opponent that he has in the space whether it’s McNeely or Cameron young and whoever else is out there these were all golfers that I liked and I I couldn’t find the matchup in any of those spots with Scott but I think there’s a pretty high floor here maybe this is more of an in tournament answer for anybody who’s missed that price on Van Roy because I I agree I think at 130 we’re star to push the envelope a little bit there but Scott’s an intriguing play yeah other matchups are Cameron young McNeely Cory Connor Sam Burns Keith Mitchell like okay all guys that we already touched on on this for the most part we didn’t mention Cory Connor but you know who’s safer than Cory Conor that guy’s the best ball Striker on the planet by a mile right now yeah the safety portions of my model Conor loses a lot of The Upside because of the putter but all the safety numbers that you’d want to see for a match up there’s really no reason to try to take him on and that’s probably the worst player maybe him or McNeely of all the golfers that you named in my model and these are all still top 20 plays and when I ran them for safety a lot of these are top 10 options so there was really one Adam Scott matchup that made sense and it that’s the one that moved of all of them I’ll say Cory Connor is he the Canadian sewu Kim just ball striking fiend who difference in short game Cory Conor is poor short game SE Kim very strong short game but the moral of the story is both of them very safe from te green relatively but the putter is just a disaster yeah um let’s fellas let’s move on into our other placement Market bets matchups anything else you have on the card Spencer empty the clip for us so I talked about the Adam Scott play over van royan that’s moved if you want to look at Davis Thompson or Mitchell over them or over van royan I think that’s certainly something that you can consider I took KH Lee minus 115 over Sam Stevens if I’m going to come on the show and talk about all the negatives or positives whichever way you want to look at it of me moving a number one way this actually moved in the other direction I got it at minus10 it’s dropped to minus 115 now it’s still there as of this recording there’s so much that my model disliked about Stevens he’s lost with his irons in seven straight starts average negative – 2.62 shots with his approach during that run when we add that to the questionable pass form when you give him a short par 70 course it’s the same answer I was talking about for Van royan this did feel like a spot where the four might finally catch up to him and then the only other play I have on my card would be Chandler Phillips top 20 at plus 550 I decided to play this more aggressively than you Roberto just because it is an extreme extremely Boomer bust profile from him of what we’ve gotten I think at 2 to one you can still consider it for a top 40 and there’s a clear chance here that he lands 31st place and you win the bet and I don’t I was just looking for a way to take on a little bit less exposure but you know there’s an argument that if you wanted to elevator this bet up I think you can probably push it up pretty high and you could start at a top 40 in reality awesome hopefully he just wins the whole thing and I get a good live number and we catch everything Nick who else you have on the card another gross guy um for some reason it’s taking these bombers with wedge and long iron play uh Ryan Fox top 20 at plus 350 I don’t think I’ve ever bet Ryan Fox a day in my life or rostered him in DFS but here we are I had that number at plus 310 so 40 points of value on one of the most volatile golfers in the field this is great news for my fantasy team I play him every week because I don’t have an alternate choice to do and I never want to have them in so I I will gladly play him here I’m going to need better than t32 but T20 I’ll take it Ryan Fox going with the meth here don’t know how it’s pushing him out but go get him usually these weird ones work the ones that I hate the plays I’m uncomfortable with like the Jordan Smith at the P like stuff just seems to work out when I do not like to play so Ryan Fox go get him kid that’s sports betting in a nutshell it’s every one of those NFL bets that’s the right side is the one where you can’t actually watch the game and you just check in afterwards to see if you’ve won the wager or not yeah like the commander laying three at home against Dallas or something early next year like that makes no sense just we’ll take it yeah all right fellas I think I’ve noted pretty much all the PLS on my card uh we talked about mner already and then I actually just saw this I had Daniel Burger 52nd or better minus 120 as my other bet that we hadn’t discussed so I’m looking at that maybe a top 40 I’m very intrigued by burer maybe even top 20 could be there so I think there’s a chance for a small ladder play on him depending on because I think that everything is hinging upon his short game and putting and I think more so putting this week so I will be playing Daniel Burger in some capacity I don’t want to leave the juice at minus 120 so maybe I’ll do a top 20 and top 40 ladder for him this week since I like that Nick is bullish on him as well uh and with that note let’s move to our oneandone conversation we I went with the block the rest of the field and it worked relatively because we had five or six guys on Harris English all five of us made zero doar last week because he missed the cut so a lot of people didn’t make ground on me because of him but a lot of other people got top 10 finishes so I’m still in the lead but I don’t like that there a handful of other golfers or other people in the pool who are within Striking Distance this week I’m going with a guy who’s for sure going to be top 30 Alex noren I don’t know if he’s going to win feels like I’ve done a nice job betting some of the players who I don’t love their odds but I like their chances of playing well I’m going to go back to norin this week feels like the best chance to bet him the rest of the season he’s playing extremely consistent golf even though he hasn’t really been in contention outside of the CJ cup Byron Nelson so give me him on a relatively easier Golf Course where the putter can be an asset and I’ll ride his consistent iron play to a 15th Place finish this week Spencer who you got for one and done this week I think I’ve left about $10 million on the table of picks I’ve given on the show and then not actually put into the contest I gave sep straa out last week on the show pivoted to Adam Scott it was a very minor difference on that one compared to some of those other ones like uh Windam Clark at Pebble Beach for example but to me there’s a handful of options to consider here the first one would probably be if you’re front running a contest Alex norin makes a lot of sense I’m in a weird spot because the two players outside of Tom Kim which I that might be the one where I pivot to Tom Kim and we go that Direction with it um but I’m playing a different contest as I noted I want to be introduced in this from now on rather than last place I want to be introduced as the person in first place for most cashes so far this season which gets me 5% of the pool which doesn’t even get me my money back but first place your scor apart is filthy you’re at minus 136 11 better than anybody and Roberto and I haven’t even topped or got lower than 80 yet you got nothing to show for it no I don’t make any money in these contests it’s a bunch of 203d place finishes where there’s been decent production but just never quite puts it together um the three options and it will be one of these three names I can virtually guarantee it it’ll be Tom Kim it’ll be Tommy Fleetwood or it’ll be sahit theala I’m taking Fleetwood then it’ll I I I don’t know I might need my made caches it might be theala cuz I still think they’re very close based off of that and it still allows me to Pivot away from Nick I don’t have either of those guys available so I guarantee you I won’t be picking them also wanted to note that in true Spencer fashion I was between Colin morawa who finished in the top five last week and Harris English and I completely played myself so unfortunate but on to the next uh want to take this moment to give a reminder that this podcast is presented by bet 365 and bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an ey for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problems call 1-800 Gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right Gentlemen let’s do a brief rapid fire I wanted to go through the Canadians this week because it’s the Canadian open why not everybody wants to bet on the Canadians I also was intrigued if you guys had any other bets that you considered for Canadians this week but other than that let’s go to Rapid Fire of the Canadians um if you have any bets that you’re considering for the Canadians let me know first off we got Cory Connor McKenzie Hughes Adam hadwin let’s look at the low Canadian Market Cory Conor is plus 280 Mackenzie Hughes is plus 450 Adam hadwin’s plus 600 Nick Taylor’s plus 750 Taylor pendri plus 750 Adam senson plus 750 Ben Silverman is 14 to1 everybody else does not have a full PGA Tour card or if they do they’re playing very poorly nobody else is short is within 20 to1 to win low Canadian so among those guys Conor Hughes hadwin Taylor pendrith spencon and Silverman anybody that catch your ey Spencer it’s a nice price on pendrith I hate what the market is doing on him right now he’s a massive Underdog to every single person when I incorporate that into my model I assume pendrith is going to move in the wrong direction I guess the question there is how far does he actually move from some of these top 15 outputs that I have for him my math liked Adam hadwin there might be some like scar tissue that comes into play with hadwin after getting tackled that’s one of the most memorable moment moments of last year of him just getting completely taken out by uh the security guard there but from an upside number hadwin I think is a very interesting choice Nick any thoughts on the Canadians I was going to goe when just slowely off the putter but if uh if not I I like the way Adam Swenson’s playing but I’ve never gotten that guy right A Day In My Life um so I I’ll go with hadwin I can’t do this spencon thing again Ben Silverman though was Spencer’s boy uh what tournament was that when you had him in the placement Market he came through for US uhj national I think it was maybe was it Houston and I remember like not hearing his name for years I remember it hit that’s all that matters it did hit I don’t think it was it was something I think it was dude PJ National cuz like I I think you’re correct yeah yeah so and that’s a course comp I kind of have here so I don’t mind that guy but I don’t have any good data on him so I’ll go with Adam hadwin but honorable honorable mention spanson Silverman graded inside the top 45 for me this week with upside numbers that were kind of intriguing it was definitely PJ National because I remember like he was in inside the top 10 at one point and I was like dude what the hell is Spencer doing he’s a psychopath that’s just always right and there he was good ticket nonetheless so I’m intrigued by this Market because the favorite Cory Connor can’t do anything within 50 yards of the green relatively so I think that there is reason to back others who have upside senson I think profile somewhat similarly to Cory Connor’s he’s not as long as Connor’s off the T but he hits the ball super straight there’s no curve on his irons it was fun last week covering the Charles schop Challenge and we would have the par 3es on our featured holes and we’d have the track man helping us out with the tracing and it would showed the feet of curve on the shots and senson were five feet or fewer just about every time dude hits absolute laser I think that this is a good golf course for him where his driver is also super straight even though he’s not very long he’ll be in the fairways I think that his best conditions will be firm and fast maybe more on a Southern Golf Course where the Bermuda Ruff is a bigger penalty but I like senson a lot I was intrigued to potentially back him out right but I saw he was 70 to1 didn’t love that price if he was closer to 100 one I would have jumped in I’d like to back him I think that perhaps in a matchup play might be the better way to do it the putter has been a big liability for him but he’s shown some signs of Life recently so if you want to back Fenson I think you can do it a little bit more conservatively but I don’t hate the upside for him especially on a on a shorter Golf Course where it’s going to need to be more positional so maybe if we see that the golf course is playing like that on Thursday I’ll add him in some fashion later on this week but doesn’t somebody I’ve got my eyes out for because the putter has just been such a big red flag that eventually he’s going to putt better I’m just not sure how safe he is yet Roberto let ask you this let me ask you this question because you talked about a matchup with spencon and I got very close to making this wager and I ended up not going in this route because there was a little bit too much Boomer bust in the profile and this might be a terrible thing for me to ask you but I need your opinion on this because you’re probably the best person to ask senson versus Kevin you I knew have a take oh man these guys are very similar profiles I mean they are that’s that was one of the problems of why I ended up not going in that route there was sorry go ahead Spencer I was just going to say there is a boomer bus potential to both of those two options and my model very much disliked Kevin Yu more so than with senson but I don’t I don’t know my math loved it there were some red flags though that worried me yeah Kevin Yu is is longer and so I think he can win on more golf courses and I think that the length off the te gives him some more upside because of that but they neither of them can Putt and I would argue that senson is probably even a little bit better around the green than or I think it’s pretty easy to say that senson is a little better around the green than you so senson only I think senson is safer but you has more upside ultimately I wouldn’t want to back one against the together this week that’s the general assessment that I came down to with also if you makes the cut he’s the one that’s more likely to top 10 this tournament and the ball striking looks great some of the other stuff with the short game are where the concerns came into play I I decided not to go down that direction I did highly consider it though we’re gonna hear about a Kevin youu or um a SEIU Kim or an Adam venson putter change in the near future or or Daniel burger and we’re going to be betting them aggressively but until then they’re more on my two monitor list that I’m excited about but I’m not going to jump in too quickly on necessarily although we are backing Burger this week uh gentlemen where can we find your work this week starting with you Nick Action Network Best Bets article and then at better golf pot I’m sure Spencer Spencer and I will get to some sort of DFS breakdown sometime tomorrow maybe tomorrow night before the uh the field closes and the contests are full so will be uh the last market for information for you guys before everything uh tees off on Thursday all right excited to hear that uh Spencer where can we find your work this week you can find me on Twitter at Toff Sports you can get all my inter tournament content here at Action Network we’ll run through the matchup board you can also get my model over at Roto baller awesome especially in a week where there are so many unknowns I thought was really cool to check out the model this week as I do every week so be sure to check it out of course you can weigh things differently and if you have a take on how the course is going to play or you see something going on in real time you can always adjust it so once again Spencer you noted the Baseline putting and short game that you can adjust once the tournament is already in progress great way to analyze and look at potential bets for the weekend so you can find me on Twitter @ Roberto a213 you can find me on the action app and and on the Action Network website uh app YouTube follow us check us out we’ve got great content coming up this week I know Colin Wilson is going nuts with NCAA baseball starting its postseason this weekend Longhorns are in College Station with the best player in the regional being a transfer from Stanford for Texas A&M bra Montgomery so sad um you can find our NBA Best Bets guys been killing it we got our WNBA podcast that just started a couple weeks ago for the new WNBA season check it out the lines there are much more soft compared to the NBA so tons of value out there and great stuff going on throughout the Action Network so be sure to check out all our content whether it’s online on YouTube or here in podcast version as well want to give a big thanks to everybody who makes this podcast possible starting with you the listeners and of course our producers no aner Hofer Matt Mitchell and David Payne for all the help that they give us every single week and without uh any further Ado thanks to everybody for tuning in and we’ll catch you guys next week at mfield Village