Brad Thomas and Denny Carter discuss the best bets ahead of the 2024 U.S. Open, including the easy pick in Scottie Scheffler and a potential dark horse winner in Patrick Cantlay. #GolfChannel #PGATour
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Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay lead U.S. Open best bets | Going For The Green | Golf Channel
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welcome to going for the green this week the PGA tour stops at Pinehurst Resort for the US Open Denny I have to Pat myself on the back I single bulled Scotty Sheffer and he came through for me made it a little sweaty on Sunday but we have Scotty Sheffer come through as the single and now all we’re waiting for are the Boston Celtics to complete the Beatdown of the Mavericks well you you had a parlay of of what was it Sheffer winning morawa top 10 which you got uh C almost almost pulled the upset and then uh Celtics finals Victory and and we’re looking at a sweep folks in Celtics Mavericks yeah man it was really exciting I I’m excited for the US Open because anytime they’re at Pinehurst you know not only the tradition but this is like the course dream course for a US Open and no disrespect to Los Angeles country crub by any means but this is what we need man right like really narrow Fairways tough really tough scoring conditions balls rolling off the green and once again Scotty sheffler is the overwhelming favorite and Denny if I’m being honest right it’s hard to find an area where we can beat Scotty right like the dude’s Invincible he plays probably the worst round he had on Sunday lost Strokes putting but if you watch that tournament I kept saying Scotty keeps missing these putts when he was on 18 he had that four maybe four and a half foot downhill putt I was terrified downhill put four and a half ft to win the tournament straight down the heart of the cup it’s no problem no problem um I went to Scotty but before I go to my pick I want you to give your top guy because I looked at it and I’m not gonna lie Denny I turned my nose up at a little bit oh no it’s it’s it’s a little gross I I will say but uh P Patrick Klay checks a lot of boxes here so I’m I’m going with KL at 9200 on DraftKings for for a few reasons one okay he’s GNA have no roster ship okay he’s he’s missing Cuts okay he’s been horrible off the tea um not good this season at all nobody nobody’s GNA go into DraftKings and say I got a Target canle okay they might end up with him sometimes but he he’s going to be clearly in single digit roster ship okay maybe even like like seven five to seven percent so that’s what you’re looking for if you’re playing large field tournaments I looked at uh players who have done well at similar courses to Pinehurst number two and what I mean by similar mostly is chipping off of Fairways right and that’s what we have here we don’t have any rough we have a lot of Fairways that run off these greens and so I wanted to know which guys succeed in that area and so I went back the LA the past three years at Augusta National uh and at kaaloa uh which are good comp courses to to this one to Pinehurst and the some some some some guys pop up who you would would have guessed right Hideki Matsuyama amazing amazing in these conditions off Fairways chipping off Fairways uh cam Smith really really good Scotty Sheffer the best on in these conditions so uh we we know those guys are good all those guys I think are going to have a lot of Rost ship Klay has also been very good in those situations he’s also gained Strokes on approach in three of his past four he’s a little wild off the tea like I said a minute ago but thankfully driving probably won’t matter a lot here at least not as much as it usually does when you have six in rough if you miss the Fairway by by one inch okay you don’t have that here so I I do think I think Klay is a is a sneaky play I don’t like him to win the tournament but I I do think that you get a high quality golfer at very very low roster ship Denny I will say this right like when I built out my model and I added that most important factor that criteria of relative scoring difficult Klay goes from about top 30 to seventh and you alluded to him off the te his off the te woes really didn’t start till this season like he was a guy who would go 1616 sometimes that’s a crazy number but uh let’s go back to 1414 uh Fairways hit I like the play I just think personally I’ve been burned by him winning a tournament but listen if he finishes top five this week at 9200 low roster ship you have an absolute home run hit there I’m gonna go with my first bet and it’s Mr Scotty sheffler and I can’t take Scotty sheffler to win because throughout the year I’ve been adding Futures uh Futures bet I have Windam Clark I have Bryson dis Bo who I’m gonna talk about later so I can’t bet a guy three to one but a bet I loved was Scotty sheffler top 20 after the first round this gives me an opportunity to bet Scotty sheffler to watch in awe as he’s the best difficult course golfer in the world he’s the best around the greens best on approach Scotty Sheffer is the absolute man when we go to talk about like flaws in his game I think we have exhausted the point that Scotty sheffer’s putter has all of a sudden changed um in the past in 2024 he has won five times we talk about win Equity that’s Scotty sheffler first round scoring he’s not even great at first round scoring but he’s still Fifth Fifth in the PGA Tour and that’s probably his worst as worst round of scoring so Scotty sheffler finishes t19 I get paid I’m really excited about Scotty this week um he killed our bet last uh last major but I don’t care I think this bet is one of those where you have to bet it at of obligation and if he doesn’t finish inside the top 20 after the first round he’ll probably be 10 to one to win the tournament and you just fire away away at him to win the tournament so like you’re gonna get your money in good regardless of it’s pre-tournament or after the first round yeah and as for DFS uh I mean it’s it really is like last week at the Memorial you’re talking about a course that fits all of Scotty sheer strengths right and so it’s just it’s really hard to Envision a winning roster without him in it I I I think that you do need to eat that chalk here um maybe if you’re making multiple lineups maybe maybe leave him at a one or two just to get crazy you never know okay could get arrested again we don’t know I’m kidding hopefully not well go ahead Denny sorry yeah no my my middle price guy with SIU Kim at 6,800 mostly this is because our guy SIU he puts it in the Fairway not super long but this this course is gonna be hard and fast this week I don’t think that length off the te will mean a whole lot it’s a it’s a long course it’s a big course obviously it’s not going to hurt if you’re a long player like Bryson or whatever but but SEIU I think is is going to be fine in that category SE is has been great around the greens um top 12 and strokes gained around the green among play players in this field uh seim has gained Strokes around the Green in 10 of his past 11 events uh the Baseline for uh saving par from off the green Brad is around 58% uh SE Kim this year is at 71% so significantly higher than the average I think that that that all checks a lot of boxes I think that he’s see Kim strikes me as a safe player uh to make the cut to save a little a little money so that maybe you can afford that Scotty Sheffer maybe you can throw in another high- price guy Matsuyama a let’s see K morawa someone like that alongside sheffler and go down to to SEIU as a safe guy who can make the cut you know with with SEIU Kim um I was just doing some digging and I found this pretty interesting when you look at sewu Kim’s stat profile um you know there’s obviously that glaring uh weakness and putting right but when he actually excels on the putting surface they’re big name tournaments the Masters he he excelled well at Los Angeles Country Club last year um we even has we have the president cup where he was putting phenomenal the list goes on Waste Management I think that’s massive for him for a guy who’s so good on approach with the greens kind of being the great neutralizer to the putters and what I mean by that is we see these domed greens right you can’t just hit the edge of the green and expect your ball to stay on which means you have to have good proximity to the hole which neutralizes putting a lot um just avoid those three putts for sewu Ken Denny I’m gonna go with a bet here it’s juicy man so I hope your juice tolerance is a little high it’s oberg top SED minus 150 I I believe I I might have found like a minus 175 when I first was making the BET and I was gonna play it I was so in so basically obber only needs to beat Alex noren and Tim wedding and then uh Alexander noren I think it’s a head-to-head matchup noren’s played phenomenal right he did he’s done well at us opens but once again we faded him last week I’m fading him again this week and it’s not because of how he’s playing it’s just because how difficult and long this course is going to be for a guy like noren there’s a difference between not caring about length or having a guy who’s hitting at 280 off the off the off off the uh the T box and that’s norin where we have luik elberg who knee looks kind of healthy he finished top five at Memorial I was like whoa amazing wasn’t hitting the driver well but guess what he hit he hit greens and regulations and made putts I think as long as the knee is healthy oberg’s going to be have a legitimate chance to win sure he missed the cut at the PGA Championship right dealing with the knee issues that’s okay at the Masters he was the only guy to really contend against Scotty Sheffer I think that major experience where he’s had the high of the uh Masters and then the low of the PGA Championship is a good way to get his mind right come into this tournament with confidence he’s been at the low he’s been at the high now all we need to do is beat these two guys for a minus 150 I like oberg you could bet oberg top 10 but I would rather play this because if norin misses the cut Tim misses the cut and oberg makes the cut we’re in there absolutely uh you asked about my juice tolerance is very high and and and and I’m good I’m good with this one uh by the way uh oberg really good uh chipping off the short short grass uh registers very high in that category and Alex noren overall really good around around the greens but really bad off the short grass it’s it’s very weird so so that I was going to mention norin we we we said we wouldn’t do it but I was going to mention nor but he but he does not do well in these environments where where you’re not chipping out of rough apparently our guy Alex norin needs that rough yeah and I will say one last thing about this norin is the type of guy where you want to play in head-to-heads where you absolutely must hit the Fairway everyone is going to miss the Fairway here everyone and I think that neutralizes a little bit that equalizes excuse me a little bit for norin um why don’t you give us your third um and final your low price guy it’s real low we’re going we’re going as low as you can go almost on DraftKings at 5200 we have a young man named Isaiah celinda okay he’s a former Walker cup player uh let me let me let me try to to to paint this picture for you as someone who I think has a decent shot to make the cut and honestly to save you a ton of budget for DraftKings if you’re trying to jam some some high price guys this week um so Isaiah selinda has a win and two top 10 on the corn faery tour this year he’s 11th in driving on corn Ferry fifth best scoring average this season around the greens he’s actually third in Strokes gained on the corn fairy tour um he’s top 30 in putting out of 157 corn fairy tour players and he does have a little bit of History here at Pinehurst number two uh celinda Advanced to the round of 16 at the 2019 us am at pineur so he’s done he’s done okay in at this course uh he has a good short game you know we can hope and pray that our 5200 again this is this is very very low we’re talking about like almost a third of Scotty sheffer’s uh a draft King price with celinda uh that he can make the cut and gain us a points some some points on the week and let us let us pray yeah uh Isaiah selinda for any of those who watched the 2023 shiners children open finished top seven tied for seventh there um I’m gonna go with Bryson dambo and before we get into this Bryson D shambo’s prices been plummeted I I bet this months ago at 50 to1 I’m okay with taking 20 to1 if you want to take down Scotty sheffler because Bryson dambo checks a lot of boxes yeah crazy long off the team right major experience major Champion playing coming in this with great form right top 10 at both the Masters and the PJ Championship fin Runner finish runner up at the PGA Championship and what I like about uh Bryson’s game which kind of has evolved over time and he was not that great around the greens uh two years ago but I think he’s one of those Pros who just tries to make their game fit make their game improve little by little area by area well we’ve noticed drastic improvements over the last two years gaining Strokes around the Green in consecutive tournaments and it could help you know being on live less pressure or more pressure to be the man since now you’re the face one of the faces of live I don’t care whatever motivation he uses he’s a he’s a really good option for me here I also want to talk about there’s some stats you can go look up about Bryson dampo number one driving accuracy driving Strokes gained approach in the last two majors those are metrics that are going to be important this week I think the chip on Bry and D shoulder is amazing and phenomenal and last but not least I want to say about Bryson D Shambo is he looks like he’s having fun right like I don’t know if you saw he rocked the mustache uh and dressed in the old knickers outfit man dude looks like he’s having a good time and I think that translates to his game not this big beefy mad scientist but a guy who’s just being himself I agree I agree it looks like he wants to play golf it didn’t look that way for a while before he went to live and maybe while he was on live I think he has discovered the best version of himself he went from good all-around player to like what did you say a beefy what is it beefy mad scientist be mad scientist and and and that you know and that only went so far but his short game has been good he’s he’s trimmed down and like you said our guy Bryson is enjoying Golf and I I do think that that is a factor you have to think about yeah I I’m excited for this regardless of who wins or how my bets do every major is an opportunity for us just to really appreciate golf when it’s at a historic venue like Pinehurst it makes us double excited um so whatever happens let’s have a good time this week and uh for everyone who is paying attention to this right now make sure you check out nbcsports.com for more information and help with your Wagers I’m Brad Thomas and that’s Denny Carter thanks for checking out going for the green
