Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
00:29 – Bet365 Promo
01:33 – Collin Morikawa
03:06 – Scottie Scheffler
08:06 – Viktor Hovland
09:25 – Brooks Koepka
11:02 – Matt Fitzpatrick
13:36 – Tony Finau
16:00 – Sung-Jae Im
16:57 – Russell Henley
18:32 – Ben An
19:30 – Harris English
20:19 – Bryson Dechambeau
21:12 – Wyndham Clark
22:51 – Max Homa
23:58 – Min Woo Lee
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welcome to links and locks action networks’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy lack and I’ll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartori for these Best Bets episodes Tony and I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the US Open before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented buy bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem called 1 1800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply okay Tony we’re on the tea here for our US Open Best Bets get us started all right I’m going to start in the outright winner Market I’m goingon to go after Colin morawa who is 17 to1 at bet 365 in my opinion obviously it’s not gonna be a hot take what we just because what we just saw last week but he is the most likely candidate in this field to take down Scotty Sheffer he’s been battling Scotty All Season while consistently coming just short of him which happened again at this past week at the memorial but I mean it was even Morado had multiple chances on the back nine take advantage but the second M place finish was more of a prct of him failing to convert out some pretty good chances he had rather than shefford just pulling away I think Mor Kawa can still go blow for blow from him even with how well shuer is playing right now he’s I mean Mora’s in tremendous form he’s got three straight top four finishes and I think this week is just a great opportunity for him to finally knock that door down he tied for third at the Masters tied for fourth at the PGA Championship so in his two major championship appearances thus far this season so obviously he can handle the the high level of competition that we’ll see this week Pinehurst number two I think is going to set up pretty nicely for him because it’s a course that’s going to reward accuracy um both off the te on the approach and Mora is very accurate in his ball striking he also in 2023 finished uh tied for second at the rocket mortgage classic and tied for six at the Tour Championship those are two tournaments also contested on Donald Ross designs and uh so I think just with the recent form he almost took down or he competed well with Scotty last week and then his previous experience on Ross designs I like Mory kaat 17 to one I’m surprised you’re not joining me on cheffer man because I I think this is the week to do it um a little different yeah I I’ve I’ve abstained for quite some time and kind of a fool me one situation listen I think it’s um I think it’s largely Golf Course dependent like I think that I think that Scotty is very beatable on certain golf courses okay and there are certain golf courses however that I believe are going to accentuate skill set more than others right these types of golf courses are really cerebral golf courses that are long emphasize approach play have firm small greens emphasize around the green play emphasize long and straight um I think that’s one of the many reasons why both of us like Scotty Walt last week and you even took the plunge on the short outright number which I should have done um and Pinehurst in my opinion is is just the quintessential Scotty Sheffer golf course in terms of all of the things that Scotty is the best in the world at Pinehurst happens to accentuate those three things like I think if you’re quite simply asking me um what are the three main things that matter at Pinehurst touch and creativity and brain power and decision making around the green now whether that’s like touch with your hands or lag putting skill just being sure of yourself around the green and knowing what to do long iron play like I think this golf course is going to disproportionately like reward great long iron shots versus poor long iron shots I think that um if you are a poor long iron player you are going to be in serious serious trouble here and then long and accurate driving right and Scotty may not be the the longest he may not be the most accurate but if you combine length and accuracy he’s the number one total driver of the ball on this field those are like the three things that you need to do at Pinehurst and we are in a situation where the same players the best in the world at those three things so I’m not going to overthink this one I got a four to one I I’m happy with that Scott a Sheffer to win the 124th Us open at Pinehurst that’s a great number that’s down is pretty much like 330 across the board now um so I’m just trying to get mine out of the way super short and sweet I’m also Sheffer I did first round leader this week said I right at 12 to1 just because and I was actually going to take him again on the all right but I couldn’t believe that this number was over 10 to one and so I just think the value is there because I think I wouldn’t even be shocked like you said it sets up so per perfectly for him I would not be shocked if he goes Coast to Coast I mean he’s just so by far in a way the best player in the world right now it is just ridiculous I saw I mean all the tweets going on Twitter T about if you uh he’s won his last four straight tournaments and where he did not have a pending felony charge against him I mean he’s going for what is this going to be this would be a six win over of a nine tournament stretch so what he’s doing right now is just incredible I’m not going to waste our time on it anymore everyone knows what he’s doing right now and I just really like the number in the first round leader Market over it’s 12 to1 I like it anywhere down to 10 to one but I like you as well I also love in the outright Market I think that’s a very strong play as well I I honestly think he could go Coast to Coast this week might as well get all the cheffer love out of the way early um I have one more fun sheffler bet uh I took Scotty sheffler to beat Tommy Fleetwood 110 to one straight forecast um first of all I I think Scotty’s gonna win so you know a lot of folks are figuring out and betting the non Scotty Market but I think a a little bit of a hack like fleetwood’s 30 to one in the non Scotty market and you’re only betting the non-s Scotty Market if you think Scotty’s going to win so why wouldn’t you just bet Scotty over Tommy at uh at 110 to1 I I love Tommy faywood on this golf course um you know I think about these golf courses with firm sandy soil Short Grass everywhere like lacac and shinok and conaree Tommy’s played well at all of those spots um he’s got a really well-rounded game he’s played amazing in US opens in the past I think firm fast difficult is Tommy’s jam and again like I don’t trust him to beat Scotty but I think he probably has one of the highest chances in my opinion whether it’s contending all throughout the tournament or doing his classic backdoor top five like I think that Tommy has one of the highest chances based on my numbers and course fit to you know finish in the top two to three of this tournament so Sheffer to beat Tommy Fleetwood 110 to1 straight forecast I love it that’s a really creative bet and it would just be the most Tommy fle would finish ever if he went out had a tremendous week just to finish second to Scotty but I’m uh going to go back to the outright winner Market I’m going to go after Victor havland who’s 18 to one hell of a roller coaster year for him um so last season obviously we’ve talked about him so much on this podcast but concluded last season in ridiculous form where he won the memorial went on to win the BMW and then went on to win the Tour right so following the Tour Championship Victory the debate was where’s havin fit kind of almost basically against sheffler in like where are we at in the world rankings and who is the best in the world now obviously now that seems so absurd to think about that that was debate at the time because of what Scotty has done since then and what how havin kind of fell off to start this year but that just I still love him this week at this number because he’s starting to turn his game around I still think 18 wins were still kind of buying low on him so he missed the cut at the Masters and I think that kind of sparked something in him because he’s we’ve seen the game kind of turn around since he finished 24th at the Wells Fargo third at the PGA and 15th at Memorial so he’s training upwards um in the right direction and this is kind of what happened last year too right before he kind of exploded right over the final stretch of the Year where he got hot right at the end of the year and we know how good he is when his game is on so if we if he finally gets you know out of his head smiling around the course again more often he’s playing good golf I think he’s absolutely Live this week at 18 to one like that play on hofland he uh he kind of broke my heart last week but uh he’s starting to play a lot better golf I’m going to go with Brooks capcut top 10 plus 240 um I’ve talked about the Al nature of this golf course I don’t think that there is a player in golf maybe outside of Scotty Sheffer that understands the pace of a major better than Brooks capka right like he is the type of player that knows how to win a golf tournament that won at even par right he won the US Open at shinok at one overpar right he has won uh multiple major championships PGA championships us opens he’s won them in easier scoring conditions he’s won there them in tougher conditions I personally think rook’s is actually at his biggest Advantage when the scoring gets tough because he’s one of the types of players that truly understands like if I you know if I start out this tournament plus two through six I don’t need to freak out right like I he understands how to play to the smart side of greens and this is a golf course that is going to tremendously tremendously penalize you for missing in the wrong spots like short siding yourself on this golf course is dead in so so many ways um and not to mention I mean not that I put a ton of stock into what happens on the lift tour shot a 65 on Sunday gained six stks off the te led the field in both driving accuracy and was one of the leaders in distance like rather have him been be playing well on Liv than nothing at all and that Sunday round at Houston was pretty damn encouraging he he would be the guy I would bet if I wasn’t betting Scotty so I’m going to go with Brooks kepa plus 240 top 10 yeah I like that a lot I’m going to go back to the right winner Market I’m gonna go after Matt Fitzpatrick who’s 45 to1 uh 202 uh 2022 US Open winner so that tells you all you need to know about um when his game’s on he can compete against these fields on tough tracks right he’s also in great form he’s made the weekend in seven of his past eight tournaments with four top 11 finishes over that stretch finished fifth at both the memorial and the players again these are competitive fields that he’s flirting with winning at the reason I particularly like Fitzpatrick this week is that usually the one thing that holds him back is he’s sometimes struggles gets the whole game together right if he gets the driver going then sometimes the irons and wedges start to fall behind or if he’s really DED them with his wedges sometimes his putter starts to go a little sour on him but the reason why I like him so much because at the memorial everything was working for him he didn’t really have a poor Club in the bag he gained true Strokes in every category across the board and rout to that fifth place finish last week that was actually the first time all season Fitzpatrick has gained true total Strokes in every category across the board so clearly peing at the right time you he’s got the pedigree of being being a former US Open Champion so I know he can handle the pressure of a Sunday here so at 45 to1 on a guy who I think is starting to Peak at the right time I like Matt Fitzpatrick this week yeah I uh I bet him top 10 that’s my next bet Matt Fitzpatrick plus 375 top 10 uh I bet him last week and I was I really liked what I saw I mean he he kind of backed door to top five finish didn’t get the outright ticket home for me um but he played really great and the main thing is he got better over the course of the weekend and he particularly got better when the scoring got tougher like on on Sunday what you saw at the memorial that’s probably the scoring average that you’re going to see at pineur like that Golf Course played basically three Strokes over par that’s probably what we’re looking for at Pinehurst this week and Fitzpatrick has shown us time and again that he is the type of player that when the scoring average is plus three he has the ability to go out there and shoot minus one minus two and um over the course of four rounds his his even par you know his lack of mistakes while he kind of lets everybody um make their big numbers and and he just grinds out his Bogies and pars like he has shown us time and again on these difficult golf courses whether it’s Bay Hill Memorial Brookline Southern Hills like all of these golf courses won at six underpar single digits under par that is Fitzpatrick’s Jam so I would be highly highly surprised if he does not find himself in the mix once again at Pinehurst yeah absolutely I love that and then I am going to do one more outright winner and I’m gonna do Tony fow who’s 65 to one again this kind of just going after guys are peing at the right time and that is also fow who is coming off an eighth place finish at the memorial like Fitzpatrick um fow’s Al also gained true total Strokes in every Cate category across the board last week that was also the first time he’s done that since January fow has now made the weekend seven consecutive tournaments posting five top 20 finishes over that stretch recent form is always so big when you go into major championships especially historically at the US Open but also if we’re I’m going more specific to how he’ll handle the course this week he’s been awesome on Donald Ross designs you know the classic small greens balls the ball rolls off quickly so you really got to be accurate on your approach shots but he won the 2022 rocket mortgage Championship which was at Detroit and then he also finished he’s has also finished inside the top 20 in seven consecutive Tour Championship championship which are all at East Lake obviously so he can handle the rth designs well and uh those those tour championships are against the best in the world just like he’s going to face this week and I just at 65 to one I think there’s worse Flyers to take in this field than someone of Tony fow’s pedigree love that pick bet him we are aligned again I bet him first round later 55 to one I went through over the last five years looked at Round One performance in Majors fenal ranked sixth in that field like he is behind you know only guy at the very top of the odds board like Sheffer and Rory um vow knows how to play these major championships and we saw him play great at mirfield Village last week in terms of like all aspects of his game the putter improved for him that has been his biggest Bugaboo All Season obviously he’s one of the best iron players in this field like he has been striking the ball beautifully the entire year it’s really just been the putter that’s held him back he’s actually got a pretty underrated short game as well um I don’t know if I trust Tony to hang around for four rounds of a tournament it always feels like he has that one one bad round that that has him lose ground to a more consistent player like a like a sheffler or a Colin or a Xander but in terms of spiking for one round feeling phenow ceiling is right up there with the best players in the game uh and we’ve seen him get off to a hot start at these majors time and again so I’m going to go with fenale first round leader 55 to one love it I’m going to go to the top 10 Market I’m going to after sunj M who’s plus 650 at bet 365 so he began the season with a fifth place finish at the centry and which was another course where Cory and um K Shaw were involved in the design and then he he kind of fell off the radar for about three months I think a Mis cut at the Masters really sparked something in in because that had to have been the final STS he immediately started turn things around after that he went over to Korea to get his head in game right he won a championship on that tour obviously he’s way better than the competition over over there at this moment but he came back and then fired off three top 10 finishes over his next four tournaments so if anything it was just more of a mental reset and clearly it has worked because he is posting results and his game just seems to be all the way back and I don’t think the market has quite caught up yet um when you’re getting plus 650 on a guy to finish top 10 when he’s done in three of his past four tournaments so sanj M at plus 650 I’m gonna go with another top 10 play kind of in this tier of the odds board and roll with Russell Henley plus oh actually I have him for top 20 so a little safer on the Russell Henley play I was I almost thought this number was so good it was a top 10 but I have Henley plus 375 top 20 um you combine the skill set of accuracy off the te and long iron play and short game and Russell Henley has all of those things in Spades uh I think the switch to Bermuda grass greens is well is fairly significant and plays right into Henley’s hands Henley is one of the biggest risers in this field when you put him on Bermuda greens he has had so much success particularly on the strain of champion Bermuda Bermuda grass in the Southeast it feels like he’s always in contention at the Windam Championship that’s another Donald Ross golf course with um you know kind of sloping undulated Champion firm fast Bermuda greens uh I I just think the combination of his skill set on this golf course he’s quietly finished by the way top 20 in two of his last three us opens 14 at LC and he was very in the mix very relevant over the first two days at Tory pin’s kind of faded over the weekend but he’s he’s proven that he could be again pretty relevant on these golf courses on these USGA setups and I think of of all the USGA setups he’s played because of the champion Bermuda greens I’d argue that this is the best one yet for Henley so plus 375 top 20 great that’s a great transition because um I’m going to go after Benny an in the top 10 at plus 650 and the reason I say it’s a great transition because you alluded to Sedgefield which host the Windom Championship benan just finished runner up there last year in third place in 2019 so he clearly has no issues with the uh very stereotypical Donald Ross designs but he’s also just been one of my favorite players on tour this season he’s a brilliant iron player he also bomb bombs it well off the te two things I think will give him a huge Edge this week kind of what you talking about chefer earlier he’s finished inside or Ben Hest finished inside the top 10 five times through 15 tournaments this season which bodess well when you’re catching a price like plus 650 this week so just with that Ross um with that previous success on Ross courses and the recent form and how this course should profile well for a guy who’s such a great iron player I like Benny on top 10 at plus 650 uh I would agree uh I like Benny on a lot this week so I’m glad we’re on the same page there he kind of just missed my uh my nine pack of plays so I’m going to go and in a different direction and go to the top 40 market and roll with Harris English top 40 plus 145 Harris English has quietly finished top 10 in three out of his last four us opens he finished top 10 at wingedfoot he finished top 10 at Tory Pines and he finished eighth last year at LACC he really knows how to play these tougher usj setups just like Henley I also love the fact that these are Bermuda greens Henley has played a lot of great golf one of the best long-term Bermuda grass Putters in this entire field I am G to go with Russell Henley top 40 at plus money I think that one is a steal yeah that that’s a really great price I like that play a lot I’m gonna go after a first round leader play I’m gonna go after Bryson Des Shambo who’s 33 to1 to lead after the first round he’s my only live player on the card this week but I just kind of want to ride his momentum after a bril performance at the PGA Championship he finished runner up as shley was able to close it out but that doesn’t take away from how well Bryson played across the board he didn’t really have a single weakness that week he was sinking putts he was sinking chips tossing darts on the approach and obviously still hitting bombs off the te there was just not a weakness in his game that I saw or that the metrics would say that we should have seen and but also he was the first- round leader at Augusta this year before finishing in six another reason why I prefer to Shambo in this market this week especially at such a big price three 33 to1 in my eyes Des Shambo is one of the top tier golfers in this field so 33 to one I think that’s a great first round leader play this week love that uh for my final two I’m GNA go a little bit off the board here with some some more fun ones I’m gonna take Windam Clark plus 175 to miss the cut um if you remember I I ripped this at Augusta and it it worked out pretty well for us uh here’s my issue with wam Clark you know he he uh first of all he’s not playing great like his iron play is really like he’s not had one good approach week in six starts um he hasn’t had a good iron week in over two months so something is really off with his approach and I think that this is one of the most demanding approach courses on tour second of all you know he’s talking about how these greens are really severe and difficult and that you know the greens are kind of on the edge like they’re already if if they let him get any firmer and more baked out uh then they’re going to lose the greens right and I go back to the the old Jack Nicholas quote of it was so easy for me to eliminate players at a US Open when you walk around the locker room and you hear about the players that are complaining about the golf course right and you know wendam Clark talking about listen this isn’t going to be Lac it’s going to be a little bit harder than that and wendam Clark talking about the severity of the greens I’ve spoken to a lot of people on on the grounds that day like greens are fine greens are in great shape um plus you’re just not playing well so plus 175 plus money to miss the cut we see great players miss the cut at the US Open all the time like a great player this week is going to shoot 78 and miss the cut I’m going to take my chances that that guy’s Windam Park I absolutely love that you convince me I’m taking I’m telling you on that as well I absolutely love that play uh my final play is gonna be a Max H first round leader play at 50 to1 we have not seen him close out a win on American soil since last year’s Farmers Insurance which which was nearly 17 months ago which I didn’t realize that until I was doing the research for this car or for our show but that’s a pretty insane stat because he’s still a very good golfer but he’s not closing anything out so that’s why I like him in the first round leader Market this week but he still has a tool to take down leaderboards in a single round hus made the weekend nine of his past 10 tournaments posting three top eight finishes over that stretch including a third place finish at austa against an obviously similarly um talented field he’s also fared well on Ross designs finishing us at the top 10 each of his past appearances at East Lake while Al also finishing inside the top 25 in each of his past three appearances at Detroit golf club and most importantly uh it’s not his approach game that’s holding H back so again we keep reiterating it’s going to be approach players this week you got you have to hit the greens in regulation because it’s going to be so tough to scramble here and so I don’t know I don’t trust him uh over four days with the current state of his game but I think he has the tools to at least contend on Thursday at 50 to1 I’m going to finish us off off with a uh little fun top Australian Market I’m going to go with Min Woodley excuse me plus 320 there’s been a lot of Cam Smith Buzz this week which I can’t say that I really agree with um I mean this is still a US Open where you have to be long and straight and I think one of the reasons why cam Smith has had so much success at golf courses like Lac and golf courses like Augusta is because they don’t feature that high missed Fairway penalty that a golf that a golf course like Pinehurst does uh so I just I worry about his driver he’s coming off a terrible driving performance in Liv he shot 80 in his final round and compare that to minwood Lee who is one of the best drivers of the ball in this field when you combine distance and accuracy he’s a great La putter as well uh I’m going to go with Min Woodley top Australian plus 320 I like it I like it excuse me little tickle in my throat there um okay that’ll do it for our Best Bets episode for the US Open before we get out of here final reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 as a reminder this podcast is presented by North Carolina’s newest Sportsbook bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana North Carolina New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 800 Gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply as a reminder our action experts Spencer agar and Nick brwi return with host Roberto Arguello tomorrow for our US Open betting preview right here on the links and locks podcast so for Tony Sartor I’m your host Andy laak and we’ll see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast
