UFC Fight Night Perez v. Taira Preview and Predictions

The UFC returns to the APEX on June 15th and features a headline fight in the flyweight division between rising Japanese star Tatsuro Taira who will take on longtime veteran and 5th ranked contender Alex Perez.

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Mom’s Basement MMA is NOT an MMA gambling site and does not promote gambling activities. All opinions about fights, fighters, or fight outcomes is purely speculative and is not intended as gambling advice. All content is strictly for adult entertainment only.

0:01 Aliskerov v. Trocoli
3:42 Nuerdanbieke v. Costa
9:53 Ulanbekov v. Van
14:25 Saragih v. Wilson
19:00 Polastri v. Knutsson
24:20 Judice v. Fernandes
27:23 Fugitt v. Quinlan
34:25 Maness v. Flick
36:17 Almeida v. Cuamba
41:17 Johns v. Andrade
42:24 Almabaev v. Johnson
50:01 Armfield v. Heistand
56:37 Perez v. Taira

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what’s up everyone welcome back to Mom’s basement MMA and in this episode I’m going to preview and predict UFC Fight Night pre vers tiira that’ll be taking place real soon thank you guys for checking out this video thank you for being a part of the community all right guys let’s get into the very first fight it is scheduled for middleweight when rram alov goes up against Antonio troli rram alisov we don’t see this guy set foot in the cage very often but it’s not entirely his fault he’s victim to a lot of bout cancellations a lot of pull outs and a lot of people probably do not want to fight this guy you may recall back in on the Anaheim pay-per-view uh when vul fought Toria he was supposed to fight fluffy Hernandez there that fight ended up not panning out and we’ve just kind of been out a standstill with him but there’s an opportunity for him to take a short notice fight so he uh leaps at the chance to fight Antonio trol the one thing I will say about iirov is the in the limited amount of time that we have seen him he has looked very impressive 15- one record he has a win over warley Alves a win over Phil H A win over Mario susza so maybe not the most formidable competition at this point in time but the UFC is trying to build him up and um hopefully we see him get a big fight soon he’ll be going up against Anton troli I’ve already talked about troli troli as you may recall uh I question how he’s even in the promotion well I don’t question how he’s in the promotion McKenzie dur cashed in a favor in order to get him here he has done absolutely nothing to Warrant being in the UFC at this point in time he won his fight against Kenneth Berg on Contender a few years ago but that fight ends up getting nullified because he had a ped issue he’s fought exactly one time sense and it was back on the regional scene in Brazil now he’s 33 years old a Jiu-Jitsu guy that’s really kind of the best I have for him at this point in time um this is a fight that I don’t think we really need to spend a whole lot of time on uh I Antonio troli is going to have to catch rram alisov making a mistake rram alisov is gonna have to like fall right into an armar uh or or get caught in like a triangle of some sort Antonio troli he is a Jiu-Jitsu guy but pending Ram mairav making a colossal mistake I do not think Antonio troli is going to win this fight I’m gonna go with ikam aliov by first round knockout he’s he seems to be a special fighter he seems to be a guy that they are looking to build up really soon and judging by tapology we see that everyone is on alisov at this point in time guys I do not know if this fight’s actually going to happen or not I have been searching high and low for odds on this fight and I have yet to find any but you can expect if this fight actually ends up taking place if we make it to weighin I would expect ikal Skov to be close to like a minus 700 favorite he’s going to be a colossal favorite and if you’re going to wager on alisov to win this fight you’re going to need to look at your parlay options because as far as putting a straight bet on alisov it’s probably not going to be uh worth your time financially so that’s something to keep in mind if you like alisov you’re going to need to uh likely par you’re going to need to Parlay him to make this worth your while okay let’s move on to the featherweight division where shyan neren beeki goes up against Mel Costa I absolutely nailed shyan’s name uh this is an interesting one because you have two guys Mel Costa I know him from a little bit and I had high expectations from him now granted when he made his UFC debut was on short notice it was against Thiago Moes right here a year ago that was in Brazil I thought it was going to be a competitive fight even though it was against Thiago Moises I was like I like this milk Costa guy even as a dog he might look pretty good that didn’t end up happening in fact he ended up getting choked out by Thiago Moises okay whatever it is Moises he’s been around for a long time high level fighter and then he follows that up he does his job he gets a fight against Austin lingo that he comes out on the right side of he gets his first UFC Victory and then he falls short against Steve Garcia trading wins and losses at this point but if we’re gonna say anything about me Mel Costa may be a little difficult to write him off I mean considering it is Steve Garcia Steve Garcia has looked very impressive thus far and then you lose your UFC debut versus Thiago Moises maybe it’s not the biggest deal but nonetheless I did kind of maybe expect a little bit more from M Costa having watched him compete in LFA for a uh few fights but not really um living up to the billing thus far he goes up against shyen nerd and beeki and he has one of the craziest resumés that I have seen uh thus far I mean it’s padded beyond belief 19 Knockouts 10 submissions H but that aside he is three and2 in the UFC he was supposed to fight Hyder in his most recent fight that ends up not pulling out that ends up not panning out he ends up pulling there’s the loss against Steve Garcia in his most recent fight now he was the minus 185 betting favor going into that one he blast Steve Garcia early in the fight nearly knocks him out they get in a grappling exchange he does maintain top control he looked good but in the waiting moments of that first round he started to gas and we saw Garcia tag him and in the second he gets tagged by Garcia again he gets uppercut to the body fight ends melt Costa he fought Steve Garcia also so there is a shared opponent in in in in common with these two and he was the minus 270 betting favor going into that fight he immediately tries to Grapple Garcia which is smart which is smart that is something that he should do given Costa skill set but for five minutes he’s trying to Grapple Steve Garcia get him down to the ground uses Jiu-Jitsu kind of get him out of there with the submission we saw those attempts ultimately uh not work out I mean the first round was just a complete wash you saw Costa just L literally just try to Grapple [ __ ] him the entire time with to no avail and then early in the second we saw Mel Costa just get absolutely melted by Garcia’s right Cuts him badly with elbows and then eventually finishes them so it was a complete mauling by Steve Garcia once Steve Garcia got going in the uh second round he got melt Costa out of there pretty quickly I do think melt Costa probably has the grappling Advantage um but on the feet I think there may be there might be a little something to be desired for shyen okay you lose against Steve Garcia but he did look good in flashes I mean he nearly won this fight in the first round prior to that he beats up on Derrik Min and then a decision victory over TJ Brown and then another win over Shan Sano going a couple years back you know I’m looking at this one and I can get shyen nerd and Bei at nearly plus 200 I think there’s terrific value in there I do think M Costa is probably the higher cealing guy granted he is going up against tough competition and this is arguably his easiest fight of his career thus far but a lot of question mark about M Costa I don’t know how you can look at this fight and be minus 210 confident so I’m going to take the dog in nerd I think there’s a ton of value there uh we we we’ve seen aside from the Garcia fight we’ve seen him do okay against a decentish competition we’ll say Derrik Min of course he’s no longer in the promotion TJ Brown’s no longer in the promotion Sorano he’s not in the promotion so maybe I’m on crack I probably shouldn’t have said that but in any event we do have a body of work um for shyen nerd and beeki I think there’s some value here I’m going to look for him to get this one done by decision I think there’s uh I think it’s a good numbers play uh minus 210 for Mel Costa there’s just no way I can do that he’s goingon to need to show me that he can do a little bit more at this level of competition Beyond just trying to Grapple thuck people I think he’s gonna have a hard time doing that against shyen and I think shyen might end up catching him that is something that I’m kind of looking at but I’m just going to go nerd and beeki by decision he might give up a tough round in fact Costa might end up uh just completely trying to Grapple [ __ ] uh in the very first round of the fight the first round might be a snoozer Costa might be able to get him down and win the first round but as this fight ends up progressing expect Costa to gas and let’s look for nerd and Bei to take advantage of that I’ll just say he outpoints him no knockout finish for me but I like shyen uh by Going The Distance by decision and for these odds near plus 200 I think there’s terrific value there I don’t see a huge difference between these two at this point in time Costa like I said is he probably the better Prospect yeah probably but I’m G to go ahead and roll the dice with nerd and beeki at almost plus 200 I think there’s I think that’s a terrific value play okay let’s move on to the card this time we’re in the flyweight division we’re here gear Ulen beckov will be going up against Joshua van Joshua van is a guy that uh really impresses the hell out of me he is from the fury FC circuit and he’s been nothing short of fantastic in his UFC career thus far he’s only 22 years old look at this a win over the former LFA Champion Felipe bunes in his last fight looked great uh another win over Kevin boras and then a win over zgas jumag gulab so thus far this kid has been uh every much meeting and exceeding all expectations put up in front of him but he has his toughest fight to date when he goes up against tar anen beckov tar is 15 and two 32 years old we last saw him fight Cody deran and he ended up choking him out that was a few months back and then prior to that he ends up beating Nate Manus Joshua van is currently a plus 170 betting Underdog at this point and then uh tar of course is the betting favorite at minus 205 now tar was supposed to fight Alex Perez who was the number fifth ranked flyweight and now uh he there’s a change and now we see him fighting Joshua van and that’s kind of a tough sell if you’re on tar side because you look at it and it’s like well what exactly does tar Ulen beckov get for beating Joshua van you go from fighting like a ranked guy a guy at the like upper end of the flyweight rankings to an unranked Prospect kind of a tough sell for tar and beckov quite honestly I wanted to talk briefly on that fight against Cody Duran Cody Duran we all know kind of what he’s about a gifted wrestler 66% takedown defense for Duran by the way and there’s a check hook that sits diran down early in the first we saw deran get close to getting ghillied late in the first toar almost rear nak rear naked chokes him too but he’s Saved by the Bell and then the second we saw toar backpack Duran Chris tyon could have taken a point from tar for putting his feet in the fence continually in any event he ends up getting the uh submission but it is kind of a [ __ ] win like quite honestly uh how many more warnings was tar gonna get like I would have been I I I would have thought to myself like you know what at least take the point away from the guy you’re going to let you’re going to let him maintain that position even though you’ve like repeatedly told him get your freaking foot out of the fence and you know Chris tyone didn’t do anything so I thought victory over Duran how how he was able to get that win the way in which he did I thought that was kind of [ __ ] I thought he should have gotten a point taken away and he should have lost the position and you know who knows what could have happened but in any event it is what it is tar ends up getting somewhat of a cheese win even though he did dominate you know kind of an unfortunate uh way to lose if you’re Cody deran but you know it is what it is Joshua Van versus tar anen beckov I don’t hate the idea of making a dog play on Van in this one and in fact you see a lot of people on tapology going in that direction because this kid does look like the real deal I mean he is inyour face A Gifted Striker he looks really good but I am going to go the other way I’m going with the betting favorite minus 205 I like to gear by submission in this one I say he actually gets this one done in the third round I think Joshua van is special though he’s a special guy I do think we’re going to see him in the rankings in short order but to me I think toar is maybe a little bit too much too soon keep in mind like Joshua van is barely drinking age in the United States he’s 22 years old and he’s fighting to gear Ulen beckov a highly gifted fighter who is in his athletic Prime right now and I think Joshua van is is uh very impressive I like him a lot um I don’t again I don’t hate the uh idea of a dog pick on Joshua van but I’m going the other way guys I’m going with Ulen beckov by decision I think ulam beckov takedowns I think he’s gonna be able to figure out a way to get Joshua van taken down I think uh Joshua van is going to look good initially but I I do believe that tar ultimately is going to end up taking him down and then I think he will ultimately find a submission victory in this fight we move on up the card to the featherweight division where jeck aari goes up against West Wilson he comes from a wooo background he has trained in the past in San Diego and when I did my research on him I noticed that he got some training in with a lot of upand cominging prospects that compete with cage Warriors so I did find that to be interesting about him he has been to decision only one time in 17 Pro MMA fights which is very impressive in his most recent fight he went up against Lucas Alexander he was the plus 400 betting Underdog and this was supposed to be a layup for Alexander who was the minus 500 betting favorite and Alexander came into that fight heavy too so the deck was really stacked against Jacka saraji for all intents and purposes initially Alexander starts looking good low kicks he cracks sery a couple of different times but this fight ends in a really bizarre way we saw Alexander’s kick get caught we saw Seri dump him to the canvas he scrambles up to his feet and sah g unloads a right hook and it lands clean on Alexander and and it ends the fight so you kind of look at it and you’re just like man MMA is just so freaking unpredictable uh was that a Bonafide finish or was it kind of a fluke were the odds appropriate for that fight yeah they probably were but MMA is crazy anything can happen just kind of an unlucky way to lose a fight if you’re Lucas Alexander this time he’ll be going up against Weston Wilson Weston Wilson is an Upstate karate guy who happens to have an arsenal of submissions to his name but he’s a killer be killed fighter you either get caught in a submission by Weston Wilson or you end up knocking him out you can’t help but kind of feel for him because basically he’s been brought in to job against highlevel competition and quite honestly like this is his first realistic fight that he could potentially win because you put up Jaa sari against Joe Anderson burrito you put up saraji against John Silva he’s losing those fights just like Wilson is and you know we look at this don’t forget sari he ends up getting knocked out by anel Jubilee not that long ago and you look at that road to UFC competition and some of his other competition prior to that is this guy really a minus 350 betting favorite you’re minus 350 confident in this guy after kind of a weird knockout win against Lucas Alexander in a fight in which he was probably on his way toward losing it’s tough for me to put money on this fight do I think sari wins yes yes I do but minus 350 that to me seems crazy I can’t do Weston Wilson because I just simply don’t think aside from this suicide run that he’s been on against Brito and then Silva fights in which he’s had really no real chance of winning I hate to say it like that but let’s just call it for what it is I have concerns about the state of his chin it to me would seem like they’re trying to set up and maybe push sargi a little bit I say sargy gets this one done I say he’ll uh knock out Weston Wilson but I’ll I’ll give Weston Wilson the benefit of the doubt I’ll say Weston Wilson lasts the first round but then he’ll get caught in the second and then SAR G will end up winning the fight there’s a reason why they’re giving SAR G Weston Wilson W Weston Wilson is arguably the runt of the litter in this weight class all accounts this should be a fight that Jack oari should be able to win but we’ll end up seeing Weston Wilson at even plus 275 I think that’s way too low I think if you’re going to lean dog in this one I think if you want to gamble and maybe put a little bit on Weston Wilson you need to wait until fight day because you could probably end up getting him at uh in the plus 300 range I’m pretty confident in saying that for now I would say for most people I think this is a fight that I think this is a dogger pass fight and I will not be betting minus 350 on jasari I’m sorry guys I’m just not doing it I am not going to risk getting burned here but I can’t do Weston Wilson at this number either I I I’ll just say sarji ends up finishing him in the second round but a fight that I’m going to avoid okay we move up to the women’s starway division where Julia pois pastri goes up against Josephine canson pastri is the plus 190 betting Underdog and then the betting favorite kudon is minus 240 her last fight was on the contender Series where she fought Patricia Alois aluas not sure how to say that name um and then she’s had two fight cancell ations due to both of her opponents dropping out so we have not seen her compete in a few months but uh not necessarily her fault they just she’s had bad luck in the uh scheduling department so we’ll see what ends up happening but the UFC likes her they put her up against aluas and she was the minus 600 betting favorite and by all accounts it was like a textbook setup fight I think the UFC uh liked what they saw when they watched her compete against Jasmine jazz deicious on Contender series back in 2021 so they asked her to come back on the show easy win against a Crusher from Paraguay I hate to say it but I mean it is what it is her opponent had a pretty record but you dig you do some digging on Patricia aluas and you can kind of figure out in relative short order that she fought absolutely nobody and her record was padded beyond belief and the UFC knew that pastri was going to win that fight and she ended up uh doing exactly that she goes up against Josephine cansen who is a Swedish fighter she trains out of one of the most prestigious gyms in Sweden and that is Allstar Training Center an undefeated fighter she’s competed in fcr road to UFC UAE Warriors and she has won every single one of those contests to date she’s looked really impressive too in her uh most recent fight she went up against Marik manah and she was the minus 700 betting favorite going into that fight oneway traffic and you could almost make an argument that she 10 AED mikm in every single round of the fight at a very least you could say it was a 3025 you know I look at Canon she did look really good against mikm and then prior to that she fights Isis verbi and we saw her get a decision nod over jenta Austin who is an Australian fighter who is uh actually very good that’s probably her most impressive Victory uh to date the Austin fight for pastry like I mentioned before it was that fight against a paraguayan can crusher that she uh made it to the promotion on and then after she lost to Jasmine on Contender we see her go back to the regional MMA scene and fight some decentish competition we have to kind of keep keep in mind we’re talking about females and we’re talking about the regional MMA scene so you kind of get what you get there a 19 and8 opponent not the best a seven and 11 opponent again not the best and then uh she fights an undefeated gal and Brenda goig who is six and0 so you know I’m looking at this one and pastry plus 190 and then Canen is minus 240 everyone is on Canen right now and I understand why she looked fantastic in her most recent fight against Marik man but I don’t like the odds for her minus 250 for kuden I think is way too high keep in mind Marik man is a jiu-jitsu fighter f with limited striking and a lot of people at this level of competition are going to look really good against her if this fight stays on the feet and that’s exactly what ended up happening and Julia pastri is a lot better than Marik man in my opinion and I’m looking at this the size is roughly the same she’s got a little bit of a reach I’ve liked some things of what I’ve seen from her I think this fight’s going to end up being a lot closer than what people are giving it credit for and if I can get pastri at plus 200 I don’t mind that at all um I don’t see a huge difference between these two quite honestly they both can crack on the feet they both have decent wrestling they both have decent grappling as well I think we’re looking at a 5050 fight here quite honestly you style on Marik man I don’t care and then you style on a paguan jobber I don’t care uh I think on paper this fight’s going to be a lot closer than what people are giving it credit to for I think Canen should be the betting favorite based off of her prior level of competition but I don’t mind taking a chance on pastry I’m going to take a I’m going to take the dog here at near at a near plus 200 nobody’s giving her credit whatsoever I think people are I think people are overestimating how good cansin is based off of that last fight against mikm and I think people have just forgotten about this fight against aluas U not that long ago keep like remember guys the UFC likes her they gave her another opportunity to be back on Contender after she fell short against Jasmine Jaz The Vicious so let’s see what happens I’m going to take a gamble in on the Brazilian here I’m going to look for her to get this one done by decision at near plus 200 I like that number it’s a total uh numbers play for me so I’m gonna take a chance on her to get it done okay let’s move on to the flyweight division where Karly Judas will be going up against Gabriella Fernandez Carly Judas is the plus 210 betting Underdog and then the and then Fernandez the Brazilian is the minus 260 betting favorite Fernandez trains out of MMA Masters she’s the former interim LFA flyweight champion and she made her UFC debut against Jasmine jazz deicious in her most recent fight she went up against Theresa BEDA who was a six And1 fighter and she ended up losing that contest she goes up against Karly Judas Judas fought ernesta kcata on Dana White Contender series uh a few months back and it was an epic fight and she ends up losing by split decision but it was such a good fight the UFC liked what they saw they decided to give her an opportunity to uh come back the one thing about Karly judis is she’s tall she is a striker and I’m expecting this fight to happen PR predominantly on the feet Gabby Fernandez it’s it’s she has been on a tough role but her two losses are against Grapplers Jasmine Jaz deicious and Teresa bled this lady throws with a ton of power off the feet she can crack and this is a preferential matchup for her stylistically because she does not have to worry about getting taken down it’s okay to fade Fernandez against Grapplers right I mean that much is obvious you led against bed and then you lose against Jazz deicious we we see track record right A deficiency against Grapplers Judas is not a Grappler Judas is a striker and I think you’re going to see Fernandez really take advantage of this matchup stylistically she’s got more power I don’t know if she’s the faster of the two but I know for a fact she is the more powerful Striker and she’s got way more experience as well minus 260 is a little steep but I’m going to go with the Brazilian in this one I say she gets this one done by decision but I don’t expect this fight to be really close I think she’s going to cruise and win comfortably again it’s that power differential maybe she even gets a knockout here um but I’m not going to bet on that I’ll just say she gets this one done by decision as long as she can keep this fight on the feet I think she’s GNA do okay and I do think she’s going to cruise to a comfortable decision uh Gabby Fernandez just watch her perform watch how good she’s going to look watch her power shine through in this fight I think she’s going to be a lot more aggressive I think she’s going to use a wide array of kicks I think she’s going to be able to fight Unchained a little bit right not worry so much about having to get taken down against somebody like Karly Judas so I really think uh stylistically she’s going to be given an opportunity to uh shine and look really good in this matchup so I’m going to look for big things for Gabby Fernandez I’ll be looking for her to get this one done by decision okay we move up the card where Adam fugit will be going up against Josh quinland Adam fujit is a guy that I first heard about back in 2022 he fought Solomon Renfro which is a fighter that I’m familiar with and the fight happened back here in LFA and if you watch LFA they’re pretty good with the matchups but also you know keep in mind it’s a regional promotion and they know what they’re doing and they brought in fugit to job for Solomon Renfro this fight was happening in Niagara Falls and if you aren’t familiar with Solomon he is a guy from Buffalo he’s from Western New York and he had just come off of uh a loss on Contender and the idea was bring in fugit set up Solomon get him a knockout and then everyone goes home Happy Well the plan got backfired in that fight and fugit ends up starching Solomon Renfro quiets the crowd like absolutely shocks everybody quiets the crowd and that’s kind of one thing about Adam fugit that I don’t think people talk about enough is his stopping power he’s he’s got a nine and4 record but go back look at how he ends up winning fights and you will see that he does have a track record of getting finishes knockout there’s that TK knockout against kinosita again we just talked about that knockout against Solomon and then the knockout against uh U some random jobber I’ve never heard of in his most recent fight he went up against Mike Mallet and he was the uh plus 180 betting Underdog going into that fight he got cracked early by m Mike mot and what was interesting about this one was fugit was in Center control despite being a long lengthy guy he wants to be in the center of the cage he was the aggressor in this fight and I was just mildly surprised at that approach sometimes you see guys with this sort of body type with that reach and they want their opponents to come to them that wasn’t the case against Mike mot I was a little curious uh at that approach and we saw Mike mot crack Adam fugit repeatedly over the course of this fight and early in the second Mike mot nails fugit with a right hook and he pounces on Adam fugit and Gillies him and gets the victory so it was an impressive showing for Mike mot but the one thing about Adam fugit that I’ll say is he’s tricky and I do think that people sleep on this guy a lot um I don’t think his power is really uh respected and he is a uh gifted Striker I I’ll give him that much he goes up against Josh quinland Josh quinland is six and2 and for him it’s another nightmare matchup like the UFC is intent on giving Josh quinland the tallest riest guys every time he goes up and he fights in his first fight he went up against Trey Waters and then in his most recent fight he went up against another tall rangy guy and Danny Barlo Trey Waters ended up cruising to a decision he could not get on the inside and Trey Waters just outpointed him for 15 minutes and then against Danny Barlo the first round was competitive but I did think Barlo did enough to take the round throughout the fight the one thing that I would say is he looked better off of his back foot letting Barlo come to him and countering but he has to move forward a lot because he doesn’t have a reach and when he moves forward this guy gets tagged a lot and you see that like time and time again go back watch that Danny Barlo footage and you’ll see he goes forward and Barlo just makes him pay a price for it every single time and then in the third round bar just chins quinland three times and puts him out on his feet and keep in mind guys like that fight was 90 days ago roughly and now he’s back in action fighting Adam fugit after just getting knocked out it was a standing knockout let’s let’s be clear it was a standing knockout but nonetheless it’s tough for me because that fight just happened and now he’s back in the cage and when people get knocked out like that I want to see you away for six months minimum so I I’m questioning the move here I think Josh Quinn is taking a big risk going into this fight he better crack Adam fugit and because if he doesn’t if this fight ends up going past the first round I think he’s going to get hit and it might take a while it may take Adam fugit a little while to chop him down with that striking but I do believe that joshh quinland I don’t think his chin is anywhere near 100% Adam fugit does have stopping power and in fact that’s exactly uh what I think’s G to happen I think quinland is fighting compromised I think he’s desperate for a win I think it’s silly for him to be jumping in the cage after just getting finished three months ago and fugit we haven’t seen him fight in almost a year give me fugit give me the guy who’s been away for a little while against a guy that’s gotten knocked out in his most recent fight only a few months back uh who took a shitload of punishment and there’s no way there’s just no way anyone’s gonna convince me he’s 100% And he’s ready to go give me fugit who is rested and and healthy I’ll take the healthy guy over the not so healthy guy with a chin that might be compromised going into this fight I think it’s going to make a difference I think we’re going to see fugit knock him out late in the third round and we can get him at minus 115 I think that’s a bargain I don’t know how you can pick Josh quinland at minus 105 going into this fight when he just got starched not that long ago he’s compromised he’s not going to be healthy give me the healthy fighter I’ll take Adam fugit in this fight uh skill-wise they’re probably close to the same but I like the reach I like the 77 inch reach for fugit I think quinland is going to get tagged as he’s marching forward I don’t think his chin is anywhere near where it ought to be I think fugit’s going to find it repeatedly over the course of this fight and ultimately get the win I cannot believe 560 people have predicted this fight and everyone’s going on quinland uh to get a knockout based off of what based off of what uh I think that’s absolutely crazy I like fujit in this fight I think he gets a late finish okay we move on to the flyweight division where n m goes up against Jimmy flick I’m a little I’m a little confused at the placement of this fight quite honestly and what I mean by that is they’re putting this fight in the Apex and Nate mayus is from Kentucky and Jerry caner in company they’re all they all are all literally fighting in Louisville how come Nate mayus didn’t get on that card kind of bizarre in any event he goes up against Jimmy flick uh this is a setup fight for Nate Manus quite honestly he’s 15 and three but we saw that he did fight Matas mendosa not that long ago who’s a jobber and but they know what they’re doing they’re trying to make it up for him because he had to fight toar who he lost against and then he fought uh Umar and he lost against him too so this is another opportunity for Nate mayus to get another win on his record and he’s going up against Jimmy flick and Jimmy flick to me is an auto fade I have not once bet on Jimmy flick and maybe the MMA gods are trying to uh give me a sign maybe they’re telling me to pick Jimmy flick because as I am going through this breakdown my black lab just came downstairs she’s licking me right now and she’s wagging her tail and uh hi Molly and um hang on I’ll show you guys my dog here we go there’s my dog say hi in any event that’s a sign for from the MMA gods that maybe I should be taking Jimmy flick maybe I should Heed These Warnings right but there’s just no way I’m going to do that an autof fade for me Jimmy flick is a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu fighter submission or bust I think Nate mayus is going to tag Jimmy flick and get a knockout okay we move on to the featherweight division where Lucas Alid will be going up against Timmy kowa Timmy Kua he made his UF C debut on short notice when he went up against bellagi Oki that fight was contested at lightweight he is not a lightweight he is a featherweight fighter he only fought at 155 pounds because it was short notice so this is not a new weight class for Timmy Kua and I want to make sure that you guys are aware of that um let’s keep it on Kua for a little bit this is a guy that I’ve been watching fight for a few years now uh he has been a guy that has looked pretty impressive on the Regional scene prior to the Oki fight he went up against Michael stack now Michael stack for people who don’t know he is based out of Colorado and he did contend for the LFA featherweight title a couple years back and he ended up knocking out Michael stack in impressive fashion at Tough Enough that that was enough to impress the UFC brass and give him a shot at that next level prior to that on Contender he beat Mato vogle it was a snoozer um I don’t remember exactly what ended up happening or why they chose not to assign him but I want to say that fight was uh a boring fight I did not go back and watch the tape uh against Matteo Vogal but vogle is a highlevel Canadian fighter that he was able to beat um the the split decision loss against BAGI Oki was absolutely bizarre I don’t know how Kua could have won the fight in any of the judge’s eyes and this is coming from me guys like I bet on Kua because I know he’s a gifted wrestler and BAGI oki’s record is padded Beyond freaking belief he’s fought nothing but jobbers and uh I don’t know I still don’t know what to make of him quite literally the only uh reason why he won that fight in my opinion was because his size and physical advantage over Kua we’ll see we’ll see how good he looks against somebody who is his size they have weight classes for a reason um but in any event tough night at the office for Kua I think if you want to give Kua a round that’s fine I think I was okay giving him the second but um bagok was the clear winner in that fight too big too strong uh and just outmuscled Timmy Kua over the course of that fight he goes up against Lucas Almeida who’s 33 years old he has one victory in the UFC but that was back against Mike trano a few years ago he last lost to Pat sabatini and Andre fely the most recent fight was against Andre fely but you know this is one that I don’t think we can really put too much stock into because Timmy Kua is not Andre phy he’s not gonna come out there and just annihilate Lucas ala like Andre fely did so the fact that Lucas Almeida got sparked by fely that doesn’t really tell me a whole lot because Timmy Kua has more in common with Pat sabatini than he does Andre Felix now I did not say he’s Pat sabbatini right I did not say that I just said he’s comparable to Pat satini I don’t want to hear any crap in the comments like oh Tyler just said Timmy Kua is Pat satini no I didn’t I’m just saying he’s a highlevel Grappler a high level wrestler just like Pat sabatini and I’m saying that because some of you guys go a little nuts in the comment section and take what I say out of context stop taking what I say out of context uh between these two I do think that Timmy Kua is going to have success with the takedowns I do think he’s going to figure out a way to get his opponent on the mat and uh get a lot of control time there I think that is ultimately where Kua wants to take this fight let’s look for him to strike level change at a right time and go for a taked down if that doesn’t work it wouldn’t surprise me if he pressures Almeida gets him to the fence and um they start grappling off the fence and then kwamba is able to get a take down that way but Kua wants this fight down to the ground I do think he’s ultimately going to get it there um I’m not sure he’s going to get a submission Victory though um the one thing about him he’s not exactly known for having any sort of uh success in the submission in the submission Department often times he’s able to get these fights down to the ground and then get ground in pound finishes I don’t know if I see it happening here uh but I do like Kua and this fight I like Kua by decision I think that’s how he uh ultimately ends up winning this fight maybe he loses the first round maybe it takes him a little while to get going uh it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts slow trying to be cautious and whatnot considering uh the last fight but let’s look for him to uh be the better fighter and look for him to get it done on Fight Night Kua by decision is how I’ll be playing this fight okay we move on the card to the bantamweight division where Miles JNS will be going up against Douglas Silva Deandra miles John’s he returned to the Wi column in his last fight when he went up against Cody Gibson he won that fight convincingly and uh I was the dummy that picked Cody Gibson when I shouldn’t have a falling knife for me right I looked at it and I was just kind of like uh well Cody Gibson you know he looked good against Brad Katona he’s a big dude and he might have a uh significant striking advantage over miles John’s but it made absolutely no difference um or that theory basically got blown out of the water immediately miles Sean’s absolutely dominated Cody Gibson 3027 across the board he racked up 6 minutes and 29 seconds of control time a total route not a whole lot more I could say it was a boring fight and most of his fights are a little bit boring in my opinion but hey um who cares I mean money’s money and uh he absolutely got the job done in that most recent fight against Cody Gibson he goes up against Douglas Silva deand draj who is the minus 125 betting favorite and um I guess I should have said miles Johns is the plus 100 Underdog but there you go Douglas Silva Deandra he does put on interesting fights I suppose I think that’s like he’s an entertaining fighter I’ll give him that um he’s fighting in his late 30s but he’s still looking solid for the most part he’s won three out of his last four he uh fought Cody stemon in his most recent fight he picked up a unanimous decision Victory which was sus in my opinion I think you could definitely make an argument that Cody staman won that fight I talked about that last week if you want to hear more about my opinion on that Cody staman fight go to last week’s episode I brought that I broke that fight down in immense detail there I’m not about to do it again uh he did lose to S Naga MAV about a couple years ago but you know not a big deal there and then uh Sergey Mor roav and then gatino Perillo are other victories that he has on his resume 38 years old still looking good um but that’s rare for somebody in this weight class uh typically you don’t see guys fight this late uh at the uh lower weight classes but in any event he got the job done against Cody staman this is an interesting one and it is tricky because we saw Cody staman you know struggle at times to get Douglas Silva Dion Dage down to the ground and Miles JNS is not Cody stamman in the hands Department in my opinion but I am looking at this one the staman fight was a year ago and we saw miles John’s do relatively well a month ago and I don’t mind taking a chance on Johns at plus money uh plus 100 I can get him currently he’s the younger fighter and I know what he’s going to do I think we all know what he’s going to do he’s going to pressure Silva Deandra and look for that taked down like that’s 100% what he’s going to do now if Johns cannot get the takedown if he can’t wrestle and grapple he will lose he is not as good as Douglas Silva deand draj on the feet I think we all know that and that is why a lot of people are leaning Silva Deandra in this fight a lot of people like him by decision and believe in that takedown defense but I’m going to go with John’s here I like J’s at Underdog money I think that he is going going to be successful in getting this fight down to the ground and in fact I think it’s going to look somewhat similar to that Cody Gibson fight he was minus 140 against Cody Gibson now we get him at plus 100 going up against a guy that’s flirting with his 40s we’ll see what happens but I’m fading Douglas Deandra in this fight I think Miles JNS uh is going to figure out a way to take down his opponent and win in boring fashion ASU alev will be going up against Jose Johnson I know a little bit about Jose Johnson he’s a journeyman Regional MMA fighter he’s tall he’s long and he’s got 36% takeown defense and best believe it’s going to get put to the test in this fight a six foot tall flyweight which is pretty crazy now he did not always compete at flyweight on the regional scene he did compete a lot at 135 lbs so a move down a weight class we saw him win his most recent fight it was against Chad and helinger but what does that tell you like Chad and helinger to me is a jobber I don’t think he’s any good at all and uh but hey kudos to him because he did win his uh fight against uh lampos gorio I didn’t see that one coming um but maybe that’s more of an indictment about how bad lampos is who knows we’ll see but you beat A Job him Chad and and helinger I don’t care um he did lose to deont Black Shear prior to that and then uh black share is 135 pounds so we saw him go down to flyweight in that last fight he goes up against Azu alayev who is the minus 420 betting favorite in this fight and when I think of like that new class of flyweights that the UFC is trying to push Tyra van EG this guy Azu alabay this they really like this guy I do think that you’re going to see the UFC really uh be smart about how they decide to build this guy up they are giving him like that white glove treatment right now 19-2 record it does look fantastic I am a little surprised that they are scraping the bottom of the barrel for this guy and giving him Jose Johnson at this point we see Joshua van getting a really tough fight I kind of expected Azu alabay to have a tough one as well he fought CJ varara who I think beats Jose Johnson pretty easily and then prior to that OD Osborne he gets a win there as well so this is actually a huge step down in competition I think Osborne and CJ varara are a lot better than Jose Johnson quite honestly I’m not high on Jose Johnson at all I think he’s I just don’t think he’s that good I’ve seen him fight in the regional scene before and I’m just not impressed uh with his overall body of work he beats Mo Miller who you know he went on Contender he was being kind of build up as like this next big thing but he flopped he didn’t really pan out he gets a win over a four- one guy he did win on Contender which did shock me uh I’ll give him that I bet on cart right as I think a lot of other people did and so kudos to him for that um but guys no reason to get cute here Alma bayv is going to win this fight he is going to win this fight I think he chokes Out Jose Johnson in the first round he’s going to get a taked down this these two are going to Grapple he will get a taked down and he is going to smoke Jose Johnson on the ground if you are going to do a parlay here’s one that I already put down I am parlaying Alma bayv and Manus in this fight and that’s a lot of chalk I get it but I am confident that that is going to hit that is a parlay that’s like a money parlay to me and it’s Captain Obvious I get it but uh I’m not going to get cute I don’t typically parlay I did last week I bet Alida Strickland and um [ __ ] what was the last fight of the what was the last leg of the parlay Tyler what is the last leg of the parlay Strickland Elma uh Almeida Strickland and I’m spacing I’m blanking on the last leg of the parlay but in any event I hit a three-leg parlay I’m going to do a two leer for this one alab bayv and Manus are going to be on it for me I like that one a lot and uh that’s how I’ll be playing it oh and it was Islam it was Islam Islam was the third leg of the parlay and I don’t know where my head’s at but in any event guys I like alv to get this one done he’s going to absolutely Crush Jose Johnson I am all over this you are probably going to need to Parlay alabio if you like him he’s minus 420 right now expect him to be closer to minus 600 come actual fight night um yeah I like him to absolutely smoke Jose Johnson okay we move on up the card to the bantamweight division where Garrett Armfield will be going up against Brady heand Garrett Armfield is the minus 175 betting favorite and then the comeback on Brady heand is plus 150 Brady heand fought on tough 29 back in 2021 he lost his UFC debut to Ricky turos um since then he uh did beat up on Fernie Garcia is a jobber good for him and then he fought bagrel Dana in his most fight who since been released from the promotion I I I believe yeah he is he’s in karate combat now beef with Brady heand is his record I mean it’s absolutely padded beyond belief you beat uh this guy I mean okay whatever that’s a valid win I’ll give him that Bernie Garcia is not a good fighter he loses to Ricky turso we Lo we beat up on an 0 and 13 guy and then we lose to Chad and helinger not impressive to me I don’t care about tough 29 um so we’ll see we’ll see about this kid I you know I I typically fade this kid I I just I’m not on him yet and you beat bagr Dana I mean good for you I I bet on Dana or Dana however you say it I bet on uh Dana to win that fight uh unlucky we’ll see I mean he is a young guy I don’t mean a [ __ ] all over him he’s 25 years old we’ll see but uh this is probably a guy that should be fighting on the regional MMA scene I don’t think he should be at this level of competition quite yet I know a lot of other bantamweights that are just as good if not better than Brady hean that aren’t competing at this level yet so good for him I guess he goes up against Garrett Armfield Garrett Armfield it’s taking me a while to warm up to this guy and I don’t mean it personally like I like him I’ve I’ve interacted with Garrett a few times he’s never been on the show but I’ve dm’ him back and forth and vice versa we we know we have a few people uh in common that we know um he’s a polite guy I I really uh like him personally and I got on Garrett because of his uh work in the regional MMA scene like he I he competed in fac uh previous to his run in the UFC and that’s kind of how I knew him I also know that when Glory uh MMA was around he did some time there and um I think it was Don sheenus that told me about Garett Armfield like hey this kid might actually end up being good of course Don sheenus would go on to be the uh champion at fac once upon a time and then he told me like Garrett Armfield is a guy that’s uh worth keeping an eye on so that’s how I ended up uh following his career um nice kid but you know I was always kind of like skeptical of him like okay well you know is he really the real deal or not is this guy like ready for this level of competition we’ll see the uh fight it was this fight right here against Stephen Graham at fac where I saw him perform he went out there and I was like okay well we’ll see and he absolutely put on a clinic he smoked Stephen Graham right away and I was like okay cool we might have something here he uh fought David onama and he lost by submission keep up mind though that fight did happen at featherweight so it’s kind of a pass for me you make your UFC debut you’re G to fight somebody good if it’s a short notice fight more often than not that is maybe a little anecdotal but in any event he gets a tough fight at featherweight doesn’t go end up going his way and uh he moves on to toshio Kazama and I looked at this fight and I was like okay well we’re going overseas there it was that was the on that Korean zombie retirement card and they brought up Kaza the fight was in Singapore Garrett armfield’s like a country kid from Missouri like they don’t want some kid from Missouri to win a fight against Toshi Ami kma he was being fed he may have been the favorite on paper but he was being fed I didn’t like Armfield that minus 160 that’s what the odds were for this fight he was the minus 160 betting favorite and um kazimov was plus 135 and I just didn’t like the numbers for either guy um so I just passed on the fight I don’t remember who I thought was gonna win um and I wasn’t doing pick thems at that point at least I don’t think I was so I just passed on that fight but then uh Hey full credit to Garrett arfield he absolutely blast blasted Kaza got the job done gets his first victory in the UFC I really believed I started believing in him though after that Brad Katona performance because once again they tried feeding him to a local guy or a localish guy because km was Japanese but ja Japan Singapore whatever you guys know what I’m trying to say they tried feeding him to Brad Katona in Canada to get Brad Katona a win and that plan blew up in their face I was very impressed by Garrett arfield he looked fantastic and um I started taking him seriously after this fight I was like Wow Garrett I uh completely underestimated you you looked good and in fact we might have something here A Gifted Striker this guy can stand he can crack um and he out he just dominated Brad Katona what else can I say his footwork looked great Brad Katona could not get get all the cylinders firing going up against Garrett Armfield I like Garrett armfield’s footwork quite a bit I like his striking that is where he wants to keep these fights on the feet he’s a gift Striker you better start taking Garrett Armfield seriously I know I am um you 2928 Brad Katona in Canada you have my attention in fact he may have 3027 Katona it’s a possibility and Brady heand is not even close to being in the same orbit as Brad Katona I’m looking for G Armfield to smoke Brady hean in this fight I think he’s going to get a knockout in the first round and G field atus 175 I think that’s a great value pick and one that I am going to be all over I don’t think this fight goes the distance I think armfield’s gonna spark Brady heand in this fight we move on to the main event where Alex Perez will be going up against tatsuro tiira Alex Press is the Min is the plus 150 betting Underdog and then tsur tiira is the minus 175 betting favorite Perez is the fifth ranked UFC is the 13th ranked Contender they were linking Ty and Joshua van together like these two were supposed to fight that fight ends up getting dropped off I was surprised at that matchup I heard rumors of it like that fight was going to come together and then it doesn’t materialize and I was just shocked that they would put two Rising prospects like van and tyera together if it weren’t like for a title Eliminator or if it weren’t for the actual title I thought that was bizarre and I think the UFC did the right thing in making sure that fight did not end up taking place because it didn’t make sense to have two Rising prospects this early on fight each other this fight is actually I was surprised though that they would put this fight together uh in a way in a way I’m surprised because logically I look at this taturo tiaya he hasn’t been in the promotion that long he’s he’s doing great he’s choking people out he’s looked fantastic against midlevel competition but we are going all the way up to one of the highest ranked contenders in that flyweight Division and at this point like they’re trying to FastTrack this kid is what’s happening and I think it has more to do with the state of the flyweight division than tiira specifically because we have to remember ERS got a title fight he just showed up he won two fights and then he basically gets a title fight Ty has been around for a year fighting really low-level competition and now all of a sudden we’re seeing them go Full Throttle on this guy I I’m okay with like you know throwing him up against somebody like Cody Duran or something like that somebody who might be able to test him with actual wrestling somebody that might be able to actually defend a takedown I feel it’s too much too soon and I’m not going to go into like a comprehensive X’s and O’s breakdown and Analysis of this one I’m going more off a feel and the theme of this year has been you get these guys that they push before they might be ready and it doesn’t work out we saw that with Jack Hermanson and Joe Piper we saw that with Ben wasand and Dustin porier and we saw it with blanchfield and man on F and like the theme is the veterans are winning these fights the UFC knows that running out of running low on star power a lot of our stars are getting ready to move on they’re getting ready to retire we need to manufacture stars in a hurry they’re fast tracking these guys and it’s not working out and Tyra is a gifted fighter I like this kid a lot he’s showing a a an elite potential but all of a but now all of a sudden he’s gonna be fighting the fifth ranked guy in Alex Perez who just sparked Matas Nicola on short notice took no damage whatsoever we’ll see we’ll see what happens but guys I I looked at this fight and as soon as it was announced uh I was leaning Perez by decision uh I think that’s the right side for this it’s a huge scale up and competition for tatero Ty and if I can get Alex Perez at plus 150 I’m all over it I think you should be as well thank you guys so much for tuning in to Mom’s basement MMA my name is Tyler let me know in the comments section which fights you think I got wrong we’ll continue our conversation there thank you guys so much for being a part of the community I’ll be talking to youall very very soon