Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 US Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event. Plus, Keith Stewart joins Mayo to breakdown Pinehurst No. 2.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
00:57 Player Rankings
2:48 Course Flyover/Notes
7:14 Keith Stewart/Pinehurst Breakdown/Player Skill Fits
50:11 Course Stats
55:57 US Open History
59:52 2014 Numbers
1:07:48 Stat Model/Resulyts
1:15:01 Mixed Condition Model/Results
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today on the pat Mayo experience full US Open course and stats preview Keith Stewart joins me from read the line to really talk through the different angles of this course how we can apply that to betting and the players that we should be looking at and of course the stat model rankings both for Pinehurst and the course conditions in general use the time codes to jump around all of that plus cash giveaways fantasy National giveaways and how to get in on a split of a $50,000 giveaway well at least up to a $50,000 giveaway let’s get to it experience experience [Music] experience P experience experience I’m Pat mail this is the US Open pick preview research on Mayo media Network here’s what I’m going to do for you right now I’m going to tell you a little bit about the course smash the like while you’re here and we’ll get to the giveaways in a second but when we take a look at my rank on fantasy national.com right now you will see the player that rates out the best well the two players one is in the model rank one is in the mixed condition model Rank and when you want a more in-depth breakdown of both of those just use the time codes they’re coming on later in the show but if you want the quick cheat sheet the four best players in this field right now that rid out Xander Scotty Rory the three best on the betting board shouldn’t be of a surprise to anyone Hideki is next and the next two best Fleetwood morawa and Russell Henley that is the shorthand for what you’re looking for at the US Open this week other players who rid out fantastically in both versions of the model Brooks Kea Keegan Bradley ludvig oberg and let’s see trell Hatton sewo Kim Harris English cam Smith Justin Thomas these are all different names that you could potentially utilize this week as we go through I want to give you the quick cheat sheet before I told you about how to get into the draws for up to $50,000 a $500 cash giveaway fantasy National memberships two ways to do that during this show you hit the description sometimes I even put secret giveaways in the description you can always find info down there but code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now get you a deposit match of up to 250 bucks helps out this show and gets you in that giveaway if you have not done Underdog fantasy as of yet go do it right now using Code mayo and get yourself into all these draws thank you very much for that additionally if you’re listening to the audio version of the show well that means you’re probably already subscribed so go leave a rating in review five stars you get ballots for doing it on Apple and on Spotify you do both you get double the amount of ballots if you’re watching the video version of the show you can go do that right now all right let’s talk about Pinehurst number two before we get to Keith Stewart the quick info that you need this week we’re going down to North Carolina for Pinehurst number two the first time that this course has been played at the US Open since 2014 that year Martin kimer ends up winning by eight Strokes over Ricky fer and Eric Compton Dustin Johnson Keegan Bradley Brooks Kea and Jason day all finish inside the top five for that week more on that leaderboard a little bit later on if you do want to hit the time codes it’s playing as a par 70 this year 7543 yards we think about that distance and it is playing as a par 70 but that puts it on par with Augusta National Quail Hollow and mirfield Village in terms of overall length all those courses are separated by 25 yards from top to bottom but this one will end up playing longer because it is only a par 70 so relative to par a lot like valpar in that way and even Riv that compared to power they just play very very much longer than you would think Ultra Dwarf Bermuda grass more on that a second is the green type there are 117 bunkers across this course there’s one hole with water in play and the average green size is 6500 squ F feet the average Fairway widths in the landing areas are actually between 35 and 45 yards making the driving accuracy percentage at least in 2014 at Pinehurst number two during this Us open around 70% so that might be the angle to play this week again on Underdog all of the breakdown of what we did from Memorial trying to do that and it did work out we just picked the wrong guys I think the same thing might be in play Thursday before Underdog can react to that at the US Open code Mayo with underdog if you want to get in on on that in 2014 Pinehurst number two became the first facility to host the US Open and the US Women’s Open in the same year and in consecutive weeks that will not be happening this time around and this will Mark the first US Open played on Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermuda grass greens Pinehurst number two switched from Bentgrass immediately after the 2014 event so we’re going to look at pting stats in a little bit but they might not be quite as reflective of what we’ve seen as Keith will tell us in a little bit that the role on these greens are very pure with this Ultra Dwarf from Mass very much like at Saw Grass very much like in Phoenix so maybe we could even take a look at that I did some Saw Grass intuition work a little bit later on and around the green stuff at different comp courses but if you want to use fantasy national.com slmo to get yourself 20% off to go research that on your own be my guess I think that might actually be an angle we can use and don’t don’t forget that this is the most difficult cut in golf to make 156 players top 60 and ties end up making the cut there are going to be flameouts across the board I would predict the winning score this week to be minus three and that’s being optimistic because you know you might have one guy like Martin kimer who ends up running away with it but just looking at how this course is both designed and the potential win that could be coming in this week that that is something that you might want to pay attention to that there’s going to be a lot of Bogies but you still going to need to make your birdies and pick it up on the part five this week if you’re going to have any chance of contending Keith Stewart is coming up in a second but as I mentioned a little bit earlier Tambo is giving away 5% of his winnings in the finals at the fantasy Golf World Championships if he makes it there he needs to get through Memorial before he does any of that and you can get a share of 5% of his overall winnings now top prize is a million that $50,000 could be given away here and you can get a piece of that by using Code Mayo Underdog fantasy rating reviewing and subscribing to the pat Mayo experience audio podcast on Apple and on Spotify now if you join the free newsletter you get ballot into my giveaway draws for the OS open I got 500 bucks in cash pittens compared to potentially 50,000 that’s being given away but I will guarantee that one of you will win $500 cash I also have two fantasy National memberships to give away this week so smashing rating reviewing all that fun stuff gets you into both draws I’ll be announcing the winner I think either on next Monday show not this Monday show next Monday show with fine or on Cut sweats Live this week but you guys waited long enough I give you the quick preview of the course to dig in deeper in the players that meet the skill sets Keith Stewart from read the line is coming up right [Music] now as mentioned because this is the US Open we need to go big for a guest someone who knows about these things about the course setup and how the different elements are going to play such a huge and vital role this week at Pinehurst number two Keith Stewart joining me on the line sir it’s an honor to have you on thanks for joining I mean it’s an honor to be with you Pat you know you inspire me every week with everything you do I I I you know golf betting’s tough and you make it entertaining and accurate and I I love it so um it’s man I’m I’m humbled and excited to be here let’s get into it because it’s a US Open and God only knows what will happen well we were just briefly chatting before we started recording that and of all the USGA setups for courses it’s seems like this is the one they can like mess around with the least like we’re not going to get a repeat of Saturday at shinok Hills at Pinehurst no I I definitely don’t think we will I think that what Donald Ross has done with this property and then what Bill core and Ben khaw have done to restore it back in 2011 um is a very simple template and if they just let it play out then I I think the winning score will be right around maybe like three or four under par and we’ll have a great Championship so hopefully they won’t mess with it unless Martin kimer ends up uh rechanneling what he did a decade ago and just annihilate the field every time that somehow I remember vividly watching it and like tiger would be sorry like even Ricky when Ricky was trying to like somewhat move up the leaderboard he’d end up pulling it a little bit into whatever the hell they’re calling the not Fairway area and he’s behind like a plant in the sand every time that kimer missed a fairway he just had the best lie out of there it was just the luck factor for him all week I mean he played excellent golf I’m not going to take that away from party Marty kimer but he got all the breaks all four rounds yeah and you know it’s one of those things too where and I know we’ll get into this but you have to game plan the heck out of this place you know Ross is notorious for what’s called switchbacks which means that off the te you’re going to hit it one way and then when you approach the green you’ve got to bend the ball the other way and when you do that and the landing areas are tilted or there swells or anything you’re going to get bounces that are going to take you out into that wire grass so it’s going to be very interesting to see some of these guys I mean you know it’s it’s what maybe Scotty is the new Martin kimer you know 10 years later that he wins by eight or something but um he’s one of the best game plan guys out there I mean he’s so cerebral which is why he’s so good at Augusta National and I’ll be very interested when I’m down there to watch Scotty how he prepares and how he attacks this golf course because um you have to be pretty smart about it and he’s definitely the smartest golfer out there and he has the one major thing that most of the high-end players do not have I guess Xander does have it as well but for a guy that hits the ball so far his accuracy is just off the charts you just don’t see that with guys who hit the ball so far he’s ridiculous and they’re going to be hitting the ball far I mean definitely one of the things we’re going to be keying on are approach shots over 200 yards I mean we have what four par fors over 500 yards so even if the place is running mildly fast they’re still hitting 200 yard approaches in um which is might be a seven or a six iron for Scotty but still at the same time into those turtleback greens they are going to have to be very precise maybe that falls more into his hands but Scotty’s also pretty good with a wedge too and you know Payne Stewart proved that that was something that you needed to be able to do to get around that place as well so looking back at the 2014 leaderboard kimer wins by eight over Fowler H Fowler and Eric Compton did they ran the same Eric Compton vignette 84 times during that week but yeah good for him coming in second at the US Open but those were the only three players that ended up under par but just take a look at some of the guys just in your mind the skill set of players like kimer in my mind at least I mean he he gained a bunch of distance versus the field that week but primarily in my mind he’s more of an accuracy player off the tea very similar to how he won at Saw Grass in a weird way that both Saw Grass and Pinehurst are two courses where know you can do whatever you want from around the greens it seems but if you’re terrible around the greens you can get out the Texas wedge and some of this stuff as long as your Li is not so bad well it goes back to my game plan comment kimer said at the beginning of the week he was going to putt off the short grass all week in 2014 that’s what he did that was his strategy he stuck to it and he did very very well I’m with you I think he got a lot of Lucky breaks that week when it when the ball did head off of the short grass or the green grass will’ll put it that way and he went into the wire grass or the sand or those Baron areas but overall whatever your game plan is coming in you definitely have to be and if you look at at that that top 10 and around that time right you look at a guy like Jason day or you go back to you know DJ in his prime you know those guys were incredible ball Strikers with their long irons they could launch the ball really really high which is definitely a characteristic of Scotty you know he is not somebody that flights the ball low at all when I’m out there walking with I mean that that guy hits Moon balls with every Club in his bag and that’s going to be a huge Advantage here because with that sand based soil even though it has been raining a fair amount there and it will over the next two weeks um you know I I think for sure that somebody that hit the ball with a higher Apex is definitely going to have an advantage and you look at guys like back then you had Brooks you had Stenson you had DJ you had Jay day I mean all of those guys Ricky they all fit that bill yeah and even to look back at some of the other names just outside of the top 10 this is where I thought it got kind of interesting you know Marcel seam who he did gain in distance for the week and lost in accuracy but he’s sort of like the Primo short off the tea very accurate European player that you would think of Kevin naw would came T12 Justin Rose Matt coer polter Jim like you have that collection of player who sitting there who AR me they’re very good with their long irons but they actually have to hit legitimate long irons from Beyond 200 yards unlike someone like Scotty or Brooks or DJ or day like you were mentioning but it does seem like outside of Stenson everyone else I guess stanson and Keegan who ended up coming in fourth everyone else just has a tremendous short game oh there’s no out and you got to remember too you know Donald Ross this was one of the first properties that he worked on when he came over right around 1900 so all of his influences coming from Royal dorno or just you know being over there in Scotland uh they’re exhibited here you know and as as he spent more time over here in the United States you know 20 years later some of the golf courses really started to resemble more of the target golf that we see over here but early on in his career I mean these are also going to be guys like one of the things that I took a long look at was the 150th Open championship at St Andrews so you really have to pay attention to that leaderboard as well and a guy like cam Smith who everyone he’s going to be super chalky and we all know that but look at some of the other guys that were on that leaderboard that got the job done they were up near the top they all have great short games they were all great lag Putters that week you know they all have the ability to be creative in and around those greens because there’s a lot of bumps and humps that they’re going to have to try to figure out and they can’t practice every angle on every hole during the practice rounds so at some point they’re going to have to just be good with a wedge in their hand from 50 yards and in and those guys are going to have a huge Advantage at this place because even though it looks like it’s long at par 70 7500 yards and change or whatever it is it still won’t play that long it never seems to right Pat like it’s always it’s a 500 yard Par Four and then it’s like you know Bryson’s hitting driver nineiron you know so it’s like at the end of the day it’s really going to come down to how you can Chip and Putt that ball around around those green complexes for sure now normally when I’m doing US Open research especially now that the PGA of America has shifted outside of Valhalla this year I suppose the setups that they have for the PGA Championship where they’ve just been a lot tougher over the past six seven eight years or so that combining those two together and seeing the similar s types of players that do well at both those major championships tend to be pretty predictive it’s weird that the US Open can be held at different courses every single time yet the guys that play well with the US Open can continue to do well at the US Open but do you think that we can use that for this course in particular because this one it’s a lot I mean it’s funny that you mentioned s Andrews because I feel this way about St Andrews in the open Roa as well that people who don’t play well at any other Open Championship venue can weirdly just always do well at St Andrews it doesn’t seem to share the same sorts of similarities as all the other courses do and that’s how I feel at Piner but I might be wrong about that would you agree or disagree oh man that’s a great point you know you start to think about would like which one of those PGA championships would really I mean obviously Southern Hills comes to mind just pops into my head right away you know like JT and His short game um on those closely moan areas uh there’s just so much influence with Bill and Ben with Gil and the work that they all do in you know restoring all of these old golf courses um I I wouldn’t see a lot of similarities with what you would see at like an Oak Hill or what we saw this year at Valhalla at all like out there certainly because it was so soft at Valhalla when we were out there but that’s a really good that’s a that’s like a really thoughtful way of thinking about it because um it seems like even though the venue like drastically changes in these us opens right it is well go going back it’s power power and then it’s power again and then if it’s a place like shinok then a couple guys pop up like they might hear at Pinehurst but I still think the themes I I think you’re spot on when you’re doing your research I think the themes are going to be the themes that like after we go with length and long approaches then around the green is just going to have a huge amount of weight here more so than it would at a place like oakill where it’s all long grass or something like that so um yeah I think unfortunately I think you’re going to see a lot of the same US Open guys do you think that the short game might be a little bit different because you have so many different options from off the green so I kind of noticed that your General US Open style course and it kind of popped up when I was doing my Memorial Research this week because once you get off the green at Memorial you’re in thick rough like there there’s no runoff area I mean there’s a few but generally speaking it’s a lot like Bay Hill in that way like once you’re off the green you’re in the and someone like Victor hin for example has a tremendous amount of problems chipping off of tight lies he’s actually like not so bad at a really thick rough you can just kind of hack it and for whatever reason he’s pretty good at that you’re just not going to have that luxury here that it is going to be a lot of tightly moan areas or where you can putt it like even Heritage would be one like I remember when Stuart sink ended up eating morawa there I don’t think he pulled out a wedge the entire week from off the green he used his putter the entire time sink actually had a top 15 here back in 2005 when Michael Campbell ended up winning as well but just to take a look at it like kimer H what what’s kimer W I mean he obviously won at Whistling Straits he won the PG he won the PLAYERS Championship Ricky who came second is a players champion Sten who came in fourth is a players champion day who came in fourth is a player Champion Adam Scott came in ninth a players champion should we be looking at sass oh 100 perc and here’s why Pat there was a guy that served at Fort Bragg back in the 40s his name just happens to be Pete Dy and his and his his um golly what’s what would be the right word his supervising officer would go over to Pinehurst all the time and play golf and Pete would go with him Donald Ross is a huge influence on Pete Dy and the use of the ground game versus aerial architecture when it comes to designing golf courses now D is so good at like giving you these things that kind of like distract you so you see these little pop bunkers or you see these like these objects always like jettison in your way or these bulkheads and these like really like sharp edges and you don’t see that at pinst but it it it’s exactly the same I mean Scotty cam Smith those types of guys are going to be huge Factor this week Matt coocher you know like it because that is one of the most strategic places just like St Andrews and and just like what we’re going to see at Pinehurst number two I mean this is a template golf course you know it does there’s nothing fancy about it there’s one hole that has a pond and it doesn’t even come into play I mean it’s just Sand Grass and you know basically what some bushes on the ground and some and some pine trees I mean this place is is is really really going to rock some people’s worlds because they remember it from 10 years ago and when they see it it’s going to look so rustic right but when you break it down and you kind of look in between and read between the lines then you are Mo you are no there’s no doubt you’re going to see a lot of Pete Dy influences here certainly from places like Heritage or Hilton or harbort toown and especially from TPC Saw Grass so one name kind of pops up obviously Scotty pops up he just won both of those events and I I don’t think anyone’s going to pretend like Scotty isn’t the overwhelming favorite with the perfect game for this course but I’m thinking like SEIU maybe a perfect guy for here and it’s funny because at most us opens kind of crap like does not possess anything that you would really want for US Open deadly accurate amazing short game can’t really putt but these sorts of courses are exactly what he does well and even this year yeah I mean obviously he’s won the PLAYERS Championship but he had another top six finish this year that what I’m thinking about guys down the board a little bit he was the first name that really popped up for me I don’t like it yeah prolific winner see Kim yeah um so here’s the thing when they start putting that’s where I worry about a guy I mean don’t I mean the guy can thread it through a needle um off the te he he is an unbelievable ball Striker but like I like I was saying before we came on these greens they’re turtleback greens so everyone thinks that they have these huge undulations in them they’re actually quite flat they have to be because the edges like a third of the green you know so whatever whatever the number is for the square footage of the green you have to reduce it by almost a third and then the target is in the center of it right and you have to really be able to hit it um but they can’t make the greens that wild after that you know they’re not like Augusta National so like if you’re a good putter here you’ll be able to play well you’ll be able to make putts unlike you can at Augusta National where everyone is on on the defensive the whole time so like I love seawood a place like that where like great putting is mitigated think this place much like a St Andrews or something like that if you’re a really good putter um I mean this might be the one way that Scotty can be approachable or that Scotty gets a couple bad breaks in The Wire Grass and it causes him to have a couple of bogeys or something or maybe a loose double bogey but like overall I I I think that really good Putters will do much better here so I further down the board I I wouldn’t go I wouldn’t go as much with SEIU as much as I would take my chances like in that price range with like a Patrick Reed who’s going to hit it all over the place but like when he gets from 50 yards and in he’s just going to score much better than seaw will over the course of four days okay you’re not g to talk me off of SEO but I understand the point here because you know I cross my fingers and hope it’s that one of the two weeks a year where he can somehow do it like Lucas clev did it Colonial and then kind of forgot how to do anything TI to Green because that’s just kind of what he does sometimes but you know it was nice to see him actually putt well for once maybe I mean he’s also a type of player for pineh her that you would think would be really good like he he’s not he’s going to hit basically every Fairway great with long irons fantastic short game can’t putt to save a lick but it happens sometimes yeah and you know what I mean he won a US Open back in 2009 on a golf course that uh I mean probably some would say in modern times is the hardest venue for major championships that’s Beth Page black um so it you know like Lucas could definitely be somebody and you know with you know with his SEC background there in Golf um you know oh wait he’s Clemson so that’s what ACC so anyway Southeast background and golf um he’ll be very familiar with that playing in the north south um he he would definitely be somebody that ball striking wise I I think I think I would just be careful if you look back at 2014 and all those names that you listed there’s a lot of guys in there that hit it a little bit loose these Fairways are going to be wider than they normally would at a US Open but when it comes to scoring you’re going to have to be able to get the ball in the hole and those will be the guys that I’m going to be leaning on more so um then I am going to be just like pure ball Strikers because um even even the best of them could miss a fairway or two with the with the different canting and the way that the fairways move um so like I still need somebody that can score and and I really think that that’s that’s a key around this place for sure well tell me a little bit about these greens because they’re Bermuda grass but like how does that compare to what we see in Florida like are they similar they are they different are they going to run a whole lot faster because but I think Bermuda in this type of like for non- elite players like someone like Russell Henley would make a lot of sense to me again great iron player fantastic great wedge player great wedge player fantastic Bermuda player has had success at a lot of the courses that we just kind of pointed to and then you could also get into like Brian Herman who I mean I just despise to know when but if it’s G to come down to the players where he just came second he won an Open Championship dude makes every single putt he’s like fancy Denny mccth yeah and why don’t you like Brian Harmon just because I lose so much money on him oh he’s he’s brutal for sure uh when it comes to that I I just don’t like lefties personally um but that’s neither here nor there so obviously if you know how I feel about a couple weeks ago the Canadian open um but um The Bermuda grass greens get back to the question so these are just going to play not as spongy as what we think of down in Florida um in is very hot and humid there but because of the sandbed soil they can make them super firm and they’ll make them a little bit less grainy they can’t go crazy fast with them because if they do then balls are just going to be rolling off into the abyss like Non-Stop and they have 156 golfers that have to get around that golf course for the first two days so I I would think of it more like that poet tralis overseed that we see and when and you get those super pure greens that aren’t super grainy so if I was if I was putting it into fantasy National then I I would categorize it as as one of those like a TPC saw grass or like we’ve seen at uh what’s another Golf Course like that um TPC Scottdale you know one of those it almost plays not not as much like bent but it’s just not going to be as grainy as that florid to Bermuda so you’re gonna end up seeing a more pure rule yes 100 per. yeah and and you’ll be able to do a lot of a lot of go back to your point about the creativity with short game you’re going to see a lot of skitter shots you’re going to see a lot of like um really really cool lowlighted you know like Dart shots in where the guys like boom boom grabs um you’re going to see a lot of stuff like that because they’re going to always be chipping from below the level of the surface so the ball is going to have to come in low and they’re gonna have to be really aggressive I mean that’s where like you really have to be good with a wedge hitting it off that tight I mean it’s gon to be tight tight Bermuda all around those greens which petrifies the average golfer but that’s the beauty of Ross you know like he preserves hard he makes it really hard to make birdie but if you and I are hacking it around down there and we’re in one of those swes we putt it up on we T putut it’s a par four we make five right but those guys are trying to make birdie so it’s it it’s it’s really really cool how he does that and um it it I I can’t wait I love when we go back to Classic places like this that make these guys think I can’t I can’t at the risk of being redundant I can’t state that enough you have got to have a great game plan here and you’ve got to be willing to be patient because you’re going to get in that wire grass and get a bad break and you just got to let it go kind of like cam Smith seems to like let everything just roll off his back like a duck and then just come up with some sort of Wonder shot or like a Jordan and then just move on what about Jordan I he’s kind of the prototypical guy that you just talked about of like is he just too bad with his irons now I I because the scoring is going to be right around par that gives him much more of a chance than it will when we got to go to 18 or 16 under because he’s just not going to make that that many great approach shots but since Parr is kind of like the Eternal equalizer in a US Open he’ll have more of a choice but you know we talk about this all the time we keep talking about Jordan like he hasn’t won twice in seven years it’s you know like um you know I I just I just don’t see it anymore you know like I really think his wrist is hurt you know I’m out there all the time pat you know that um you know I I will be at mirfield Village I you know I was out there at Wells I mean I I think that his wrist is really hurt and he that’s why his approach G because think about it right he’s great off the te he’s Jordan off the te and why because that Ball’s not sitting on the ground as soon as you place it on the ground and you make that collision with your lead wrist which for him is your left wrist right now all of a sudden and he’s going to go on one of the hardest surfaces that you’re G to see that they’re going to play on all year you know like I I just don’t see it you got to pick it clean and um I I think that that left wrist hurt and and I think that therefore I I would just be turning the page on him I mentioned Victor a few moments ago about how he’s had a lot of struggles chipping off a very tight lies better from really the deep rough where maybe that’s more of an equalizer but dude can putt dude can drive the irons have come back do you like him here or do you think that this around the green if he’s not hitting every Green in regulation and it’s a US Open he’s not going to hit every Green regulation that it just might be too much for him and like bad bad shots will be played on replay so um this is the beauty of golf betting right because you can almost talk yourself into anything like we could totally discount Victor because of the short game but then he was T4 at that 150th Open championship at St Andrews so how did that happen right was because he hit every Green well it’s much shorter yes so like there’s your caveat right like that’s how we can figure out that T4 and how he did um I think it’s going to be really tough for somebody like that that has an average um short game to really contend over the course of 72 holes uh Valhalla was was perfect for Victor long iron midiron play point and shoot and then very OPP opportunistic putting you know I I mean I think Xander is super live here because Xander is a really really good Scrambler and he picks the ball I mean he’s not a super Digger right so like hitting off of these firm surfaces isn’t going to throw him for a loop at all and he’s so well-rounded he has all those shots around the green and statistically we know throughout the year he’s equal to Scotty if not better with a long iron in hand so H you know in that range you know he’s definitely somebody I’d be talking about and and there’s defin you know there’s some other guys in there whether it be a Windam or a Victor or somebody like that that i’ I’d have way more concerns about that are going to be you know maybe they’re not in that price range but who’s going to be there Brooks is going to be there which of course he in in what 2014 he was in the top 10 um but I’m not sure Brooks is short game is as good as as what it needs to be in order to win and like Rah will be up there as well but I have no idea where his game is at at the moment like I’ll dig into this more in the later part of the show but I I was trying to think of just sort of the player that you described I want to talk about Bryson for a second because I just think Bryson’s short game is kind of disastrous a lot of the time because he’s gonna come in with the right strategy well at least I don’t know if it’s gonna be right or not he’s going to pick a strategy and sometimes that really works to his Advantage sometimes it doesn’t but we saw at Augusta the short game got the best of him the moment it wasn’t super wet out anymore and when he had to play a creative shot that’s just not his style like he just he can’t play it off the mound over there and get it to roll down even at that Open Championship you were talking about he finished inside the top 10 but again it was just I’ll drive five of the greens on the course not a problem yeah um so the the whole thing with Bryson and when you go to a place like this or like Augusta National um his his his chipping clubs are the size of a six iron hat so like imagine like you you’re trying to have that much touch and control on a 40 foot pitch or something like that and that thing is that long in your hands with that super huge grip that he uses and the lie angle is so it it it’s so vertical and it’s so much higher than anyone else’s wedge would be it really limits the versatility that he has it’s almost a credit to him that he even comes close in some of those events because he’s working with tools that are like actually make it hard hard so as much as Bryson would be a huge factor in this and he’ll have tons of experience there he’ll play in the north south I mean he’s that good of a player like he’ll know the golf course and and he’ll it’s just you’re right I mean I I have to agree with you know like I’m not agreeing with you I’m just saying like you know you can’t chip with a six iron you know even if it does have 56 degrees of Loft it’s just like that you’re just making it harder for harder sake no one’s GNA ever accuse Bryson to be on the All Hands team when it comes to this so like the guys that you’ve described who aren’t the the greatest players in the world I mean maybe you do consider them to be the greatest players in the world like Hideki one of the first names that Springs to mind if Justin Thomas could pot or drive the ball like he would be on that list like he does you know if it’s wedges around the green he might miss every two foot putt but he’s another one that immediately Springs to mind Fleetwood is another one too oh yeah Fleetwood for sure would be very live you know just look at him at at shinok a couple years ago when he lost to Brooks um yeah I mean I I think you have to build out from the green how can you score at Pinehurst how can you be a great scorer and obviously put Scotty aside you figure out whatever you want to do with him from a betting capacity but like you know like it’s how can you score there because you know this is a faders golf course uh what 10 of the t- shots work left to right uh so you know a guy hits a nice little power fade puts it out there um is above average give him a b with his approach game but he is an a or an A+ with his short game and he’s at least an A minus with the Putter and boy that guy is super live and there will be some there will be some randos definitely coming up there I don’t know if they’ll be as random as Eric Compton H but you know I guess the vignettes they the vignette makers will have their hands full when it comes to Sunday but it’s uh it’ll be it’ll be pretty cool to see how this thing breaks down because there’ll be a couple power guys there but I think if you look at the top 10 when it’s all said and done there’ll be more artists there than there will be just attackers and you wouldn’t consider this guy to be in that camp although his stats have been firmly in that camp somehow over the past two months or so and all of a sudden formerly the best iron player in the world has started to hit his irons well again and he is a fader of the ball he hits every Fairway he’s increased his distance and now he can Chip and Putt he’s won two majors he has two top 10 in Majors it’s call morawa yeah I mean I know oh I know your history and I know you love Colin and I know you love now where did this come from um well he went back to his Old Coach right so similar to like Davis Riley going back to radar out there Jeff Smith in Vegas and uh you know so Colin goes and works with Mark Blackburn who is obviously one of the top five instructors in the world the guy’s great but they just didn’t mesh he goes back to Rick cessing house and all of a sudden he’s starting to find the things that made him Colin morawa again and he’s he would be in my mind well a year ago you and I would both agree we’d say there’s no way that guy can’t Chip and Putt his way around this place in order to do it but now all of a sudden to me it seems like this guy was a British Open champion and or sorry Open championship winner and you know it certainly fits and we remember that last day he had a couple of great up and downs a couple great putts um in order to preserve that Victory and hold on and you know and win The clar Jug um I think in that range where you’re going to find the odds for him and you’re going to see your cam Smiths and you’re going to see your Bryson’s and those guys and your Victors I I think definitely he is he is more live of somebody that is in that Echelon uh because of going back to Rick and because of his ability now with the short game um I kind of you know I kind of like that I mean he’s like the perfect guy to win a Players Championship right like if you thought about it like over the course of his career would it make sense to you if I said Colin will win a Players Championship I mean as someone who bets him at zass every year yes I I would hope so because I’m just going to be down like 10 grand by the time my life is over on him yeah I mean he he just he just suits that so well and um yeah I’m excited for Colin because I think he does very something very unique with Rick Rick is not just his swing coach but he’s also his mental coach and I think that this is this is definitely going to be a mental test and I think even just like you know Scotty no longer being a you know a POS an alleged felon is a big weight off his shoulders and and he’ll be able to attack more you know it it it’ll be interesting to see how everything plays out leading up into this because as much as Wells Fargo was a huge um indicator for what we would see at Valhalla uh and of course look at the way the leaderboard worked out right you know Xander played well and there he was you know and he goes and he wins the PGA uh mirfield Village doesn’t have a lot to do with what what we’re really G you and I would be focusing on and our world would be focusing on leading into you know Piner number two so the last few guys I want to kind of run by that obviously they’re going to have deficiencies in some sort of category but just from you being able to see them out there is Taylor more real guy who just can’t hit an approach shot but he’s great at everything else yeah I mean you know if they looked a little bit more like it’d be just like mat Hughes you know like those guys could scramble out of a garbage can but like you know you never know where the approach shots going to go uh which is interesting and it goes to show you you put them in the right place um they can contend um but yeah he’s a real guy um he’s been impressive all year and you know CU he really slumped um last summer and to see him come back I think he’s made every cut this year right 13 or 14 in a row so um Taylor Moore is a real guy and with his level of short game and the way he drives it uh reasonably viable so he has top 20s of both Majors so far this season which you’d be very surprised about for a guy again who just doesn’t hit irons at all but for his level an elite driver and compared to M Hughes a much better driver than ma Hughes defitely about equal in terms of the approach game but fantastic around the greens and generally like he doesn’t get quite the magic beans that mck Hughes can get from time to time but he just makes a lot of putts that’s kind of his entire thing I was trying to think about like what courses that we may have seen some of these c-level and DL players play at against maybe some of the top end guys like like yeah they’re all at the players and we can point to that but like where’s another spot what did you make of the course in Houston in terms of how the around the green is going to go because that felt like just watching it that a lot of runoff areas a lot of just like very high up greens where the types of shots that you said that you would have to play from around the green and the variability of what you can do would that lend any Credence there where maybe guys that were good around the green there could be very good around the green here too or am I just like it’s not a One V one type thing I mean from length and and and I’ll give you a 5050 on that I think that you know the golf course there in Houston that public the the mun course there uh yeah I think that’s a pretty good PLL I I think that you get a good cross-section there um do did a good job there he do do would definitely be somebody that has a lot of Ross influence in his design work um golly they just play so many places on where you know it’s just such aerial architecture where they just point and shoot they hit it in the air and then if it runs off somewhere then it it you know then it hits you know the the um the long grass and it just sits there you know Along The Fringe if there’s one cut or two cut or whatever it may be um there’ll be a lot of the country club here so if you go back to Fitz’s US Open there’ll be a lot of that a lot of the ground game um there are there just aren’t there’s so many I mean there’ll be a lot of like the way they had to play at Colonial um that will be very similar you know it’s interesting you bring that up about Taylor Moore having two top 20s in Majors you know he is the type of player that that that gets the most out of his rounds when I watch him play whereas there are so many guys out there that get the like the absolute least out of their rounds all the time because they can’t yeah because they can’t putt or or so on and so forth right um I I mean if Rory can’t get the long left irons out of his game like he is gonna be in pain at Pinehurst like it’s and he’s so talented that he’ll probably still make the cut but the Cut’s tough there you know like and I’m sure you go over all these details but you know top 60 in ties with no 10 shot rule um it’s one of the tougher tougher Cuts in you know professional golf um I’m just trying to I mean the what what Gil did there at Colonial would be very similar Southern Hills the country club um man you know a lot of those the um so Keegan Bradley yeah Country Club Colonial I mean he was inside he was fourth here last time they played it 10 years ago and like no one’s riding a better driving and iron streak right now I mean yes he doesn’t quite putt himself out of tournaments like he used to but he does have a much improved short game he’s a really good pitcher of the golf ball so chipping just think of that as like a bump and run shot where someone’s green side and they bump it on and it rolls out like a putt he’s a really like underrated CH pitcher of the golf ball so so that’s like now we’re 30 yards out and we’ve going to choose the flight we’re going to hit it in with spin we’re going to hit it in with some trajectory choices and we have to find a landing spot and everything and you know just look at his pre-shot routine the guy’s super detail oriented he’s you know he’s probably some form of OCD so you know like goinging to a place like this where he’s going to need a very very strict game plan I mean look how good he was at arony when he won there you know and that played soft that week but like that’s Donald Ross too I mean like as he evolved as a designer but like I mean a lot of those themes are going to be the same I mean he has the most creative green complexes everybody that’s a modern architect that we love their work it all stems from this guy doing 400 plus golf courses throughout the course of his career and he really makes you use the ground and that’s what makes bogey almost at times easier than trying to make birdie and the guys that we see play go and we don’t see enough of these golf courses um it’s a great question for com um yeah I struggle because everything’s like TPC which is like you know it’s funny because we’re not mentioning Windom or Detroit or even East Lake like the Ross courses that we normally see because it just doesn’t feel like it’ be the same does it no it definitely wouldn’t I mean those things are um I mean even like Detroit where it seems like they’re turtleback greens and everything but like there’s a lot of uniques about Pinehurst number two that Ross Ross was just he was just a genius when it came to the landscape that he was given and then he would put something there that just look like it fit so if you and I walked up to the first tea at Detroit we’d say oh wow look at this and then if we went down to the you know down there to North Carolina we went to Windam we’d be all like oh look you know like this seems like it fits too oh you telling me it’s the same designer oh um all right well there’s a couple false fronts and they’ll you’ll come up with some similarities between the two but you’re you’re really kind of grasping at straws like Ross was just so good using the landscape and and what do you have here in the Sand Hills because you don’t have a you don’t have a ton of topography changes right so he really works with the soil and you know what you’re going to get a lot of holes where you hit it left to right off the te and they’re called switchbacks and then you have to hit it right to left into the green because the green sits at a funny angle and then they’re going to put the pins in places and they’ll know exactly where to do this that that causes you to have to hit certain style of shots and if you’re not good at hitting the ball both ways then then you you’re you’re going to be chipping a lot because those greens will just reject balls if they’re hidden coming in the wrong direction and that will cause even more short game work um and if that’s not your if that’s not your uh that’s not your strength then you’re really going to be in trouble but it’s it’s super cool like the eighth hole the way the Fairway sits and you have to land the ball into the can it’s the like you see that like a place like Olympic and stuff like that where they’re on the side of a hill this place is flat and you have to do that which which is really going to lead to a lot of these balls rolling out there’s there’s no edges to the fairways right this isn’t Oak Hill there’s not like a barrier four inches or rough right these balls will just roll wherever which is like good luck I’ll leave you with this and because I think what I’m going to do is just like sort by Saw Grass and work backwards from there because that does seem to be the one at least with the most crossover success whether it’s exactly the same I think we’ve discussed there are elements uh of that potentially being the same that there is the one guy okay does theala have a chance here or is he just too are the misses too big when he misses I almost think it’s more of a pressure thing it seems like every time that he becomes chatter on Monday Tuesday Wednesday he doesn’t top 10 and um golly I mean his the weakest part of his game as he’s improved over the last year his ball striking I mean his ball striking has been impeccable this year which is why he’s come up with now what five top 10 but his short game has really lacked and he I mean when he was at Pepperdine and he won college player of the year I mean that was his strength his short game and his Putter and he’s made his ball it’s it’s almost a shame it’s like he’s made his ball striking so good if that short game was still there but if you start running models on fantasy National it his numbers are they’re going to be red with a wedge in his hand and I don’t know that he’s a good enough ball Striker like a kimer was in his prime to just putt all the time and get up and down um he does putt all he does putt all the time that do yeah and I think it has a lot to do with the fact that his short game has been a huge weakness this season and the places that he plays well at are places that aren’t necessarily you have to be that creative Allah like you were saying about Victor hin you don’t have to be that creative with a wedge so when we think about who has won here in the past obviously Payne Stewart won three times ago Michael Campbell beat tiger by two and then Marton kimer wins kimer was you know a great player in the world he had just won the PLAYERS Championship earlier that year but it was this was still a time of he was not one of the top five guys on the betting board obviously Michael Campbell was what like 5 million to one the year that he won is Pinehurst a good place for a long shot do you think um only because there’s going to be some luck involved so I I think as much as I I just call it luck because it could always be good luck or it could be bad luck Pat um you’re going to get some weird lies in that wire grass and if you luck out like ker and it’s all good luck then you have a chance to outpace the field but if you get a couple of bad breaks and they’re going to happen and they’re going to happen from good golf shots how you handle that mentally and then your approach from there but then your ability to make a bogey out of a double bogey is going to be tremendous so that level of luck is is to answer your question um Point Blank yes we are going to have a chance to have somebody that’s in triple digits win this thing because um things can get sideways quick you know and and I know saying that you know Scotty’s obviously the one and he probably wins by five but if somebody gets close to him and there’s a bad break coming down the stretch um you know it’s just you have to be uh you have to be lucky in a US Open which I mean we could go on and do a whole another show on the USGA running these events but um we’ll keep it positive for the time being and we’ll just say that yes I I think that you’re going to get some live wires at the top of the leaderboard um it could be as random again as Eric Compton Jason Gore guys like that that you know great players that all of a sudden they just popped because things went their way that week and you could definitely get some positive roles at pinst so just write it down Henley Harris English Denny Harris diet Harris is a good one just these are all the guys that I’ll just end up losing money on this week anyway I’m gonna dig more into the research on fantasy National here in a second Keith Stewart read the line tell everyone what you got going on pre tournament and what you’re going to be doing in the tournament when you’re there on the grounds so leading up to that week um you could always go to readel line.com that’s where I house all of my content so whether it’s on all the stuff that I do for Golf Digest or Sports Grid or any of the other podcasts that I’m on you could always just go there so go read aline.com if you’re if I’m new to you because I’m here with Pat then please go check it out and subscribe you can subscribe for free um if you think that I do a decent job I picked 30 winners in the last 30 months I cover the LPGA and the PGA Tour on site and I’m a PGA profession profal so I bring golf to golf betting and I try to make it as fun as possible I’m like if if Pats is a 10 on the entertainment value and accuracy and everything else that he does accuracy you don’t need to butter me up when you’re on the line you can say Pats picks or dog it’s fine I don’t know I mean it’s been it’s been an interesting year I mean it tested us all much like pineer is gonna test these guys in the Wiregrass the first seven weeks I mean I think we all were we all were on the ledge you know so it’s um hey if if we’re having fun if you and I are having fun we’re smiling and people are enjoying golf betting then as a PGA Pro you know with all due respect to Greg Norman I’m growing the game so that’s what I love to do so check me out let’s get into the course breakdown powered by fantasy national.com obviously you have the chance to win one of two fantasy National annual memberships by getting in that draw by joining Underdog fantasy with code Mayo getting a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks and in and reviewing the pat Mayo experience audio podcast if not and you just want to get in and do your own research do your own research that’s what the internet tells me and those are the most right people out there according to a vast minority on the internet either way fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself in I’ve already built out the model and the mixed condition model but I want to talk about the breakdown of the course to begin with so we have Pinehurst Resort number two I’ve already went over a little bit of the different factors you know the the new grass type since the last time the championship was played a little bit of the redesign obviously Keith and I talked this through what I really want to get to here is to look how the field actually got the job done at the US Open in 2014 because that’s all the data we really have for this dominate on the power fives if you don’t dominate on the power fives you have very little chance you need to be a little bit above the field obviously on power fours and power 3es tread water there score as much as you can on power five there’s only two of them on the course but if you’re not making birdies or even potentially Eagles as now in 2014 number five had almost a 4% Eagle rate uh and a birdie or birdie percentage of 32% so this is the key hole if you are purring this whole like 48% of the field does it’s going to be a rough day for you because you see a lot of red in terms of the bogey department on the screen in terms of doubles or worse there’s not a ton of doubles or worse but like 6% 5% that is a in the grand scheme of things especially when a hole is playing to a 27% bogy rate a 31% bogy rate the power three number six hole the really long one plays to a 34% bogey rate and a 3% Double Or Worse rate 2% birdie rate so power is such a good score at this course I don’t think that really changes this time around but if you’re not getting The Strokes on the par five you’re absolutely screwed for the week we don’t have the actual proximity data from 2014 because that was USGA owned and they just never released it so thanks for nothing Pals the cut line in 2014 was plus six but this is what I found really interesting and it didn’t occur to me till I really started digging into the stats fantasy national.com Mayo 20% off any membership level get you everything you see here and the leaderboard app which won’t be the most functional for the US Open because the USGA is very secretive about their feeds but anything after that for regular PGA Tour event you’re going to want that leaderboard driving accuracy 70% in 2014 well above the PGA Tour average this is very reminiscent to what we are seeing this week at Memorial guys are heading a ton of Fairways although we didn’t cash our ticket based off of One Missed Fairway to many with Xander schafle on Thursday’s round if you go look at the numbers that Tambo and I were getting on Thursday or sorry on Wednesday morning in terms of Fairways hit and what they ended up being over the weekend we were two two and a half Fairways below so we had the right idea we just happened to pick Xander schafle who I think had it into six Fairway bunkers off the tea not something normally that he was going to do so we picked the wrong guy the process was right so there are some exploitable edges if you can get on a bit early that might be the key this week as well we’ll see when the underdog fantasy props for driving accuracy end up coming out but I thought this number was shocking it’s not to say it’s going to play exactly the same 10 years later but I just would have figured fured it was a lot smaller than that and that goes hand inand with what I said earlier about the width of the Fairway the problem is once you’re not on The Fairway you’re screwed it’s not like there’s a whole bunch of rough laying around for your ball to sit up in no it’s not going to happen so even if you do hit the Fairway the green of Regulation percentage is still way down and the scrambling percentage is way down so you can spin that one or two ways really you could say Hey you need Elite scramblers Elite short game players and that is what’s going to get you through now that’s the place where I lean a little bit more of course you’re always going to have your outliers and we reexamine the leaderboard from 2014 you see especially from like places 10 to 20 a lot of guys that are very good around the green short hitters accuracy players and great scramblers the other way that you could spin this is you you can take the Texas wedge as we’ve talked about many of times there’s Myriad ways that you can play some of your shots from around the green so what does that mean it means that maybe it’s a bit of an equalizer in a sense where maybe some of the crappier around the green players I mean I don’t think that’s going to happen I mean it could if guys commit to actually testing out something different than they normally do but maybe that is an equalizer like a lot of people say that po po greens especially on the west coast can be an equalizer because of the bumpy greens that means your crappier Putters just might lock into making more putts where the truer the line the better the putter is going to end up doing and you know you’re always going to have you know great Putters who put poorly on some of those Services bad Putters who putt great and one chip in skews the stats a little bit too for around the green stuff so there’s always going to be that outlier when you take a look at the median numbers I do think it’s going to benefit the highly skilled players around these greens three putts of Plenty almost one per round per player which this is the PGA Tour this isn’t playing with Pat Mayo out here I I’m having like five or six rounds so higher than your average PGA Tour event by almost double not quite double but almost double the amount of three putts per round and taking a back look back at us open history and in 2009 or 2014 sorry so we see over the past five years Rory Rah Xander Scotty and Hideki have been the five best US Open players in terms of overall Strokes gain total now Scotty is probably actually a bit better than that because he didn’t play in the 2021 US Open he has three consecutive top sevens Roy’s finished top 10 at the US Open each of the past 5 years he was t24 I believe uh when they played this in 2014 Xander coming off a major win he’s actually got progressively not progressively worse but he’s been worse the last two years meaning that he’s only finished inside the top 15 not the top 10 uh overall other guys that have been very good even DJ continues to be good at us opens he was fourth in 2014 morawa continues to play us opens really well he’s been inside the top 15 each of the past three years other guys with notable Bryson has just made the cut every single year again this is the hardest cut to make in golf top 60 in ties a field of 156 Harris English has three top 10 finishes in the past four years if you’re just looking at the normal setup now when I pondered this with Keith that maybe this won’t be exactly the same a lot of the names that we’ve seen kind of pop up are the guys that you would expect to do well at US Open so when I get to the mixed condition model in a little bit I do have us open history baked in to a minimal degree just in case you know I’m a bit off on that we see Brooks kka didn’t play in 2021 a 2 a fourth a 55th and a t17 a year ago when it was played at La Country Club we’ll see how he ends up finishing in Liv golf Houston over the weekend ROM had a very hot start there kimer first round later maybe it is time for party Marty to defend his title and get himself into a US Open for the next decade because his exemptions for the US Open are up after this season so you can just see there’s just a bunch of guys who end up doing pretty well cam Smith his bin Boomer bus was very good at La Country Club Ricky fer was obviously very good at La Country Club will la Country Club have any correlation to Pinehurst I have no idea probably not just be looking at the courses they don’t seem to have very many similarities Denny has been very good at the past two US opens t7 at Brook line T20 last year and listen he’s going to be a very good Scrambler you would expect him the one problem is and this is one of the guys who kind of screwed us on our eight leg play on Underdog over on Thursday was his Fairways just haven’t been good you think that Denny he’s he’s got to play this accuracy game and overall like it’s pretty decent but when you’re only gaining Strokes on the field for accuracy half the time yet you are losing on distance every single week that is a bad formula now his iron play has been a little bit better which is nice but if he’s going to start getting himself in the that’s not going to be good you can see last year kind of going from the playoffs all the way back he had some events where he lost I mean he lost a ton of Genesis in terms of accuracy other than that very marginal losses to the field but generally gaining a whole bunch on accuracy like when he lost in the playoff at Memorial you he’s gaining on the field there at the US Open last year gaining a ton on the field if he starts playing like this Denny who every single week is trading back and forth I think he had six Fairways when everyone was hitting Fairways Thursday at mirfield Village that’s just not going to cut it and the rest of his game is good enough but even if he’s just off by a degree a little bit then I think he’s absolutely screwed like you’re just not going we saw the three putts they’re double I don’t expect Denny to three putt and maybe he can make it all back putting but if he is not near the top of the field and shipping and putting like he has absolutely no chance of doing anything so that’s what I’d be looking at for tournament history overall I do want to take back again to 2014 at the US Open just to see if there’s anything that we can glean about this leader because I’ve talked about it uh a bunch at this point but I haven’t really shown you up on the screen what any of that means if you’re listening to the audio version to this thank you and if you are listening to the audio version please subscribe rate and review while you’re listening to it it’s the easiest time to do it if you’re watching the video you can get yourself in the draws you know for the 500 bucks the split of the 50k whatever it might be by doing that uh even if you’ve done it before please go do that again but if you just switch over to the video you can see it’s an eight stroke victory for Martin kimer and you know that that’s a pretty large margin I want a large Marge it’s the peee German Us open right now but the names are just so strange on this leaderboard you have Fowler Compton Stenson DJ day Keegan Brooks then sniger Scott Jimmy Walker then you get into that range of player that I just talked about where the shorter hitting great around the green Kevin Na Marcel seam Matt coocher Jim furick Ian polter toddfather spe Stricker horel like these are high-end accuracy players good Putters for the most part and very good the green gr McDow was up there Chris Kirk Daniel Hower bger even with a third round 78 shots 66 Jesus Christ Daniel Burger that’s a nice nice round four at your Us open in 2014 probably his first US Open at that that must have been the round of the day let’s see here round four if we sort by round four and we go down let’s see yeah 66 Daniel burer round of the day Louie furck Keegan Jason Day to all get themselves back up there fits so you can see the type of player that did really well and we can dig a little bit deeper into driving accuracy and um and driving distance over time but you have Fowler Compton Stenson not very and I mean Fowler probably was at the time kimer was about average kind of like morawa in a weird way slightly above average very good at accuracy Stenson and Compton obviously short DJ Brooks day Keegan all very long same with Adam Scott and Jimmy Walker sniger na coocher all very short off the tea but a bit more accuracy based so you have a real mix of players so how do we start to differentiate all these players as I mentioned Saw Grass Saw Grass winner Martin KR Saw Grass winner Ricky Fowler Sawgrass winner Henrik Stenson Saw Grass winner Jason day Saw Grass winner Adam Scott Saw Grass winner Matt coocher Jim furick ended up coming in second there we had a second place for Jordan spe uh at TPC Saw Grass Brooks has a second place finish Keegan has I believe a third place finish as does sniger so just for whatever reason these two places kind of cross paths and that is another course where over time that you see bombers do really well you see that shoulder hitters do really well and I think a lot of it just has to do with the strategy that you take off the tea uh and how you want to play this course if Bryson can figure out the right way and strategize properly to attack this course he could be really good here I just worry that he’s going to grip it rip it and just not hit enough Fairways if he took iron off every te and hit it straight he might have a very very good chance of competing at Pinehurst number two so let’s take a look at Fairways gained and you can see ker slightly above average and Fairways a lot on distance versus the field which you just wouldn’t expect fow and competent we’re actually below and Keith and I talked a little bit about the luck Factor that’s going to end up having to be a key and you see with some of these bigger hitters they lost slightly to the field like DJ lost a ton to the field in Fairways but everyone else was kind of right around even or they were gaining a bunch off distance like someone like Keegan I think gained the most distance of anyone in the field oh no it was lindheim JB Holmes Keegan Bradley Dustin Johnson and you can see some of these other guys end up getting propped up a little bit like kimer who was way up in driving distance mainly because he hit so many Fairways and you get so much more of that roll out Hunter Mayan was up there Paul Casey Gary Woodland so Hideki even at the time was a Sher player who was better with his Fairways ended up leading uh gaining on the field a little bit with his Fairways ends up gaining on distance so there’s many ways to go about this um I do think that Fairways do mean more than driving distance for the week and might not necessarily play itself out perfectly you can see Lucas Clover you gain a distance and Fairways can’t chip or putts that’s a real problem even gaining greens and regulation for the week versus everyone we take a look at greens and regulation how did we do there even that wasn’t the end all be all you don’t see Martin kimer up there at all in terms of greens and regulation he gained on the field but he’s outside of the top 20 for the week in greens and regulation game because it comes down realistically because the putting can be so difficult depending where you are on the green that maybe it’s three putts a bound it’s all about can you make your putts inside 10 ft can you scramble around this place that’s going to be the big differentiator and those are the types of players that you want to end up having we’ll take a look at the I mean we won’t have proximity gain that’s the problem with this birdies and Bogies gained for the week Bogies avoided best players in the field Martin kimer Jason day Ricky fower one four and two on the leaderboard so I mean obviously that shouldn’t come as a big shock to anyone that avoiding bogeys is going to do you a whole world of good at a US Open but I mean that strictly comes through now bogi’s avoided a lot of the time bogy avoidant isn’t necessarily A predictive stat it’s more of a storytelling stat a lot like war in baseball where it will tell you based on how the players played so well like bogy avoidance will be very good for this you see some guys just didn’t didn’t have it so it was kind of a combination outside of Jason day of bogi’s avoided and birdies gained on the field on some of these more difficult holes even someone like the toddfa was able to do that and you see the guys that actually lost outside of Jason day you have Chris Kirk who was very high in bogey avoidance but was in the minus for Birdie’s gain ends up coming 28th he’s not near the top of the leaderboard Kevin Stadler one of the best players top 10 and B he avoid top five actually tied five for Bogies avoided for the week lost almost four strokes to the field and birdies ended up coming 63rd you’re still going to have to make your birdies because everyone’s going to make Bogies everyone in this field is going to make Bogies so it just comes down to can you make enough birdies to end up treading water it’s no different than a round that I played the other day I end up making four doubles in the round very few bogeys but I end up with four birdies throughout the course of the round like that you can make your doubles when you’re like a crap player like me and you’re right around a 10 handicap like making four birdies in a round just covers up so many mistakes and you end up shooting 80 or 79 or 81 or whatever it is when normally when you’re not making those birdies to go along with it all of a sudden I mean obviously that’s the case but when you’re just putting up double bogeys on the card you can kind of feel that same way about pros and how bogeys really do affect their round if you can’t balance that out I mean that’s really the cheff for thing like sheffer’s going to make a bunch of Bogies this week I mean if he doesn’t then really watch out but even when he does it makes like three in a round or something like that he’s one of the few players that you can actually feel good about gaining birdies on the field he’ll you know beat up on the power fives he’s not going to let those go to ways he’s going to birdy a few of the difficult power fours hell I mean he chips in so godamn often he might birdy the very difficult power 3es like he’ll make the up the difference somewhere else and those are the types of players that you want and you see a lot of these guys in the birdies game category outside of kimer day great short game great short game for fower na Snedigar Jimmy Walker Chris Kirk ston pretty bad short game DJ somewhere around the middle same as Brenan Todd Adam Scott Brenan Todd very good David Toms very good cooch very good Aaron badley very good Zack Johnson very good these guys are also very very good wedge players as well something else I wish we had the proximity stats from the year we don’t I bet you with this range from like 75 to 100 it 75 to like 150ish is going to be a very good range to look at for a lot of players Beyond around the green whether it be layups on power fives if you get yourself stuck in the off the Fairway then you need to lay up a little bit that’s always been sort of a key indicator at us opens let’s talk about the stat model I’ve already built it out we can make amends to it though you can see it’s loaded in right now Pine Hurst and not for number three it’s not for number four it’s for Pinehurst number two but you really don’t need to worry about that I have driving distance weighted more than Fairways game but they are both in AUM summation of 20% inside the model for the week 11 and 9% approach 20% proximity gained 200% bogey avoided 11% I’m going to boost that up a little bit putting 5 to 10 10 to 15 ft nine a piece around the green overall 15% sand saves five I am going to throw in now that I’ve talked that through a little bit I’m going to add not Bird’s gained because again I think that’s more of a storytelling stat in a lot of ways although I have included bogey avoidance within this I think I’m pretty comfortable with that I like that better than scrambling in a lot of ways but that’s just a preference for me maybe if you are a member at Fantasy National you can put in Bird’s gained or scrambling but I’m going to go proximity 75 to 100 I’m not going to wait these a ton I just kind of want to see them as it comes out in the modeling uh so 75 to 100 yards 100 to 125 we’ll just give them little mini weightings probably more than 1% we’ll go 2% 3% for those and it’ll just bump down everything else now instead of 11 and % for distance and Fairways we have 10 and 8% like it’s not that big of a difference obviously you can see it up on the screen I’ll try to include it if I can remember into the free newsletter which you can subscribe to down in the description right now or just go to substack May media I’ll probably have one coming out on Sunday evening I usually try to do three during the week of Majors just to keep you up to date on all the shows that are coming out the giveaways and all the information that you might need so looking back on the past 24 rounds overall within the Pinehurst Model A lot of the guys that Keith and I have talked about obviously this is going to shut up set up every course sets up greatly for Scotty schaffler but he still rates out number one over the past 24 rounds Scotty Xander Rory the top three on the betting board are the top three in the TW past 24 round modeling Hideki is number four hid is actually playing all right at Memorial I needed to see something out of him in order for him to come back cu the last two tournaments he had played previous to Memorial were the PGA Championship and the Masters it’s been like three months dude’s played two tournaments so maybe he’s finally healthy and coming back I’m recording this on a Saturday before he has started his round but if we just take a look at Dei matama at Memorial and we take a look at his stats we are going to see that he is 21st off the te through two rounds I mean it’s a field of 71 mind you he’s 12th around the green he’s inside the top 20 for approach 38th in putting for the week so I think that for the first time we’ve seen him get his TD green act a little bit back together now maybe he falls apart on the weekend I have no idea but another way you can do this on fantasy Nationals we’ll just go to the odds for memorial uh and once you are actually on that tournament you can go to live stats and we can check out what is going on amongst all the peoples for all the rounds so we can take a look at how everyone is doing and we’ll go to Strokes gain total you know Scotty’s in first place obviously how are they all doing it everyone’s kind of gaining on the greens except for SEI wo I mean I I know Keith disagreed with me about sewo I still like him a lot this week maybe there’s just a chance that he’s able to putt maybe just maybe you can see the ball striking for Mora is still very good for two rounds but here’s Hadi so in total Tia green 3.7 Strokes ball striking 2.2 Strokes so when we take a look at the overall TD green you know Scotty Victor the gala playing really well can’t train a putt to save his life very encouraging to see his around the green game go so well because you don’t normally see putting this bad from siah at all so maybe sneaky under the radar a little bit based off his performance this week we’ll see how that translates into popularity in the DraftKings game or the betting Market but I know vincenzi really liked him on the player by player show if you haven’t checked that out yet hadwin straa I mean I got money on straa got money on havin hopefully one of these two jabronies can end up get going and straa could just make some putts he’s like not significantly off the very top of the board in terms of ball striking and TD green his T to Green game has been excellent so far this week he’s just dropped two strokes putting Brian Harmon’s T to Green game is mainly chipping and approach play for Brian Harmon at least through the two rounds which is something that as long as he’s hitting Fairways is going to be very good because you wouldn’t expect him at Pinehurst to end up losing for strokes putting we take a look back at that leaderboard that I talked about a little bit earlier like this is the Brian Harman zone right here not that I I’m trying to go out of my way not to bet Brian Harman at a US Open he just did win a major I don’t expect him to win another one this time soon but when you see names like snar na coocher furick polter Todd like that is the Brian Harmon Zone he’s like the good he’s probably the equivalent of what Matt coocher was into 2014 to be perfectly honest and you know that’s a guy who just finished really good at a US Open in 2014 at this course so there are some different players out there who can kind of do this it’s weird to see ludvig but ludvig seems like he’s turning it around a little bit it seems like the knee injury is not bothering him quite as much Lowry playing well Cam Davis playing well outside of the short game Lowry obviously losing Strokes putting but that’s just part for the course for Old Shane Lowry horel putting pretty well Keegan’s just like dominating I believe he is leading in putting for all players yeah let’s see putting wise yeah the only one who’s pass him is putam because he’s actually started his round today as I’m looking for and these other guys have not so at the beginning of this through two rounds It Was Keegan Poston and Xander Xander’s actually really off in terms of his TD green and day is someone else that like day is just kind of all over the place you know the off the te is bad the approach is bad he’s having a really good third round and the has been off the charts good I do think that Jason day I mean this might be the end of me for this week if this actually ends up happening but you can see that his T green and putting on Saturday at least through nine holes has been very good for Jason day I just think that he has the right temperament for Pinehurst um obviously he came inside the top five last time around but overall I think that DA’s chipping and putting is something that we’re going to look at and be like yeah that’s kind of what he does although he has not been doing it so much recently but around the green three five putting three four 1.5 five he hasn’t lost Strokes putting since the Genesis in February and overall he is doing very well around the green now he didn’t at some of the key places that I’m looking at like Heritage uh I don’t have any Colonial snats because obviously he didn’t play there but we’ll see when I get to the mixed condition model that I mixed in some of those things so just some guys who are playing well right now over the weekend in the memorial uh just you know you can go back and check out on fantasy National or on the app a little bit later on so here’s what the model rankings give us over the past 24 rounds we got Sheffer Xander Rory as mentioned then Hideki Aaron Ry Brooks ludvig Tommy Henley Glover there is the top 10 Denny Baden Hout morawa DJ mcla messenger at number 15 AE batia at number 19 North Carolina guy too maybe it’s his time you won’t be able to see him coming on the leaderboard norin Bryson feno Connors and Homa Fitz Taylor Moore it’s going to be down for Taylor Moore after I think he was like 82 or something Friday at Memorial d3e number 25 SEIU McKew Haron hogi and then Justin Thomas cam Smith and Taylor pendrith so these are a lot of the guys that I’m looking at and that’s just the past 24 rounds we can shrink this down to different levels of you know past 12 rounds I think Rory boosts up to number one if I do 12 yeah because he’s played so well recently but it’s still the top three of Rory Xander Sheffer but then it’s benan Hideki Keegan Ry drops down a little bit morawa makes a jump a lot of the same names Thomas takes a huge Boost from 31 to 40 the shorter term that we go Hatton all of a sudden appears inside the top 20 so does Kitty norin remains around the same Glover gets a little bit worse and here we have Tom Kim he’s a coming he went goes from like 80 to 21st in the short term big ups for cam Smith pendrith Goes Up sunjay goes up Lowry goes up all of a sudden here Seb straa coming on up Fitzpatrick Harris English the bista Mista Lady M ends up falling about half of his spots when we go to the short-term version of all of this now we can also use the rolling model for Pinehurst we’ll let that go in we don’t want we want the Pinehurst model in order to load itself in so we can take a look from four to the past 100 rounds and see what we have out you can see that everything 10 15 20 22 so I’ve built it as a bit of a pyramid for the rolling model at Pinehurst with four being the lowest but 50 and 100 being 15 each 12 and 24 being the two highest represented and eight being the same as 50 and 100 so I want to get that Medium shortterm type of feeling for the Pinehurst model and we put all of those ranges together Xander Scotty Rory Hideki Ry those are still the big ones that we’re going with they Remain the top five however you see some of the big ones jump up Bryson jumps up Fleetwood jumps up morawa Lucas Glover Russell Henley that’s the top 10 and ludvig Brooks noren Keegan CZ who’s having a nice week here at Memorial DJ Connors Justin Thomas cam Smith when we take it out and this is still factoring in some of the especially for the live guys some of their back end of the PG tour that they had some of this information when you’re talking about 100 rounds for players does go back probably more than we want to actually look at however we do have that weighted a little bit less and it does give us some long-term viability for a lot of these players some other names that kind of pop up fow is there there’s Denny hogi and kyama kittama also shot in 80 or 82 something like that I know because he was my main DraftKings lineup thanks for nothing pal Herman 41st SEIU 38th and that’s just what we’re looking at so I think the big thing to look at now is how that rank does versus the mix condition model that I have built out this week so the best players in the mixed condition model I’ll bring it up at the top of the screen so you can see the different elements that I ended up putting into it so I went through Saw Grass passed 24 rounds at Saw Grass over the past five years Strokes gain total so just performance at TPC Saw Grass I also did multiple courses for around the green and the multiple courses that I used were ones that have shaved off areas for your surfaces so roll out I could have threw Hamilton in there from this year as well because we saw a lot of that although then then everything got nestled up in the thick rough a lot of the time which you’re not going to see so much at Piner so I use Saw Grass Heritage Colonial and the the uh Memorial Park course where we had the Houston open this year so I took the around the green for those four courses and threw them in as one of my waiting that’s at 11% Us open history in terms of Strokes gain total for the past 24 rounds I put in at 9% Strokes gain total overall past 24 rounds difficult scoring relative to par and courses over 7400 yards Pim hurse rolling model I just showed you that I put that in at 177% around the green on Fast and lightning greens past 12 rounds at 10% T to Green past 12 rounds at difficult courses with fast enlightning greens cuz we’re going to get that at the USGA this week then bogey avoidance overall pass 24 rounds scoring relative to par put up to difficult and course length over 7400 those are the specific course conditions that I’m looking at this week we get to the overall winners of all of this Scotty Sheffer Xander shafley Tommy Fleetwood Hideki matama Rory Mel DJ somehow sewo morawa Henley Fitzpatrick Windam Clark cam Smith Jason day Denny McCarthy Brian Herman that is the top 15 Brooks Hatton sunjay fow H Bryson ludvig when we’re thinking about guys at the lower end of the board coocher still does really well with this and he is actually having a decent week of Memorial right now on the sponsor’s invite and he’s in the field so we’ll see how he ends up doing doing uh web actually does pretty well even with the poor play that he’s been having Keegan Taylor Moore probably I mean that’s more mid-tier bottom Lowry and Keegan are usually right around the same price but seeing coocher still pop up this highly is very interesting to me Harris English and Bren and Todd are two you know they’re Georgia guys themselves they’re used to this area they’re not so long off the tea but they do kind of have the kahone especially in terms of boki avoidance for Brendan Todd the around the green Harris English also very good around the green and some of the stuff that we’re looking at uh and especially at you know Heritage uh Houston players like all those places Todd and Harris English do very well there cam young is there benan is a lot lower than I thought that he would be tiger comes in at 40th although we’re really digging back in the depths in order to find that realistically Woodland and Woodland and zot Taurus are both hurt the most by their performance at Saw Grass and they’re chipping they’re chipping overall on hard courses and they’re chipping at the comp courses that I found they’re just towards the back end of the field overall they’re actually pretty good Woodland especially um he doesn’t do well in like the the short-term modeling at all or The Strokes gain total at us opens despite I mean he does actually do well in The Strokes gain total at us opens because he won one that still actually qualifies in here but the bogey avoidance is great for him the TAA green is great for him so maybe we’ll throw Gary Woodland not what I would have expected coming into this uh Burger you saw had the round of the day Sunday in 2014 and he started to play a little bit better himself uh then you got like e root Tom Kim Tom hogi Mark Hub like these are the guys that are right around the middle players like norin and Klay and Victor don’t rate out so well now a lot of that has to do with how poorly Victor and Klay have played so far this season same as minwoo and Sam Burns as they just don’t pop up very highly I think the biggest difference between the short-term Pinehurst modeling that I looked at in even the rolling report and how players do in the actual core stats that I’m looking at is Aaron Ry fifth in the rolling model 63rd in the mixed condition so when we go back to the main screen and we look at that rolling model again uh you can take a look here the biggest jumpers the biggest climbers in terms of where they rate in one versus the other now Scotty Xander Fleetwood Hideki Rory are all top 10 and both as is morawa as is Russell Henley so those guys are kind of lock solid seaw jumps up huge in the mixed condition from the actual modeling now he wasn’t bad in the actual modeling he was 38th he’s seventh in the mixed condition DJ takes a big jump up Fitz takes a big jump up Wendy C defending US Open Champion takes a big jump up cam Smith big jump Jason day goes from 52nd to 13th with these specific conditions as does Harmon uh Harmon and Denny make big jumps Brooks drops a little but he’s right around where he should be same as Hatton other big jumpers sunj is a big jumper Matt coocher goes from 115th to 26th Fowler goes from 47th to 21st 34th to 25th for John ROM other big ones web takes a big jump Brenan Todd takes a big jump as does tiger Woodland zot Tores Chris Kirk and Daniel Burger all take a big jump as does Adam shank in these rankings now we think about it the other way who are guys that would rate out on paper to be very good at Piner based on what we’ve looked at as I constructed the model versus what the course conditions that I put in now remember that part of the mixed condition model is this rolling report so this this information is included in the MCM and they’re still not rating out well you can see a Aaron Ry is The Biggest Loser in this list he goes from 5ifth to 63rd Bryson goes from 6th to 21st Lucas Clover 9th to 48th 11th to 39th benan ludvig loses about half his spots from 12th to 22 still not bad however noren 14th to 51st Keegan 15th to 31st still inside the top 35 not bad Bez drops a little bit Connors 18th to 38th probably because he can’t chip if Corey Connors can commit to being the sort of player that Martin kimer did in 2014 where he just says you know what I am going to take my putter from off the green although it’s not it’s not like he’s a good putter at all but maybe that can help him now he has done a good around the Augusta greens throughout the course of his career and puted well on them that if he can just figure that out he could be really good this could be the US Open where the luck just kind of flops down in his favor other guys who have massive drops so there was Connors Kurt kidam is the biggest follower of anyone 25th to 100 and 30 seconds straa drops off hugely in the mixed conditions as do pendrith and horel and burns obviously I mentioned that Matthew Fitzpatrick moves up very big in those rankings as does SEI wo anyone else drop big this guy Saladin ends up dropping Victor Perez drops out and Eric Van royan goes from 50th to 122nd senson drops pretty largely as well spe gets better he goes from 58th to 36 so that’s what we’re looking at for the US Open at Piner I really hope you enjoyed the show the discussion I had with Keith uh really informed me and help me build out my modeling and really try to do different types of research now you just saw what was on the screen if you’re watching the video version if you’re listening to the show on the audio podcast thank you and leave that rating and review to get yourself in the draw and to help out the show at the same time I do think that I’m going to Target the higher Fairway props after looking through these stats on Underdog fantasy for round one maybe we can catch them with their pants down as soon as the props end up coming out and we pick the right guys to go along with it because you have like you can play up to eight legs on any Underdog entry right now and really try to capitalize bigly in those situations so code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now get you both in the draw for all the giveaways supports the show and you get a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks I would highly recommend that share the show around help us out here and smash the like on the way out more information will be coming out along with my right up in the free newsletter substack Mayo Media or just hit the description if you hit that description there is a ton down there which you can find sometimes I put in secret giveaways down there that people find there’s like eight people who look at the description it’s like the same people who win all the time don’t even announce them publicly you need to be hitting the description in order to find out some of this material all right I’m Pat Mayo good luck at the US Open I’ll see you next time experience experience
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
00:57 Player Rankings
2:48 Course Flyover/Notes
7:14 Keith Stewart/Pinehurst Breakdown/Player Skill Fits
50:11 Course Stats
55:57 US Open History
59:52 2014 Numbers
1:07:48 Stat Model/Resulyts
1:15:01 Mixed Condition Model/Results
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I only clicked bc the thumbnail is so good.
Like and subscribe you maniacs!
Cam Smith @ 40/1 w/ 5 places
Sahith Theegala @ 55/1 w/ 5 places
Pat how the Hell did You get Matt Kuchar to come on this Show today? 😂. Great Show! Love it and all You do for the Community
Scottie is the current no brainer
i just watched sebastien soderberg drop a 8 shot lead and lynn grant became first ever woman to win on DP world tour overcoming a 11 shot deficit for largest comeback in history!! how does soderberg ever come back from that mentally!! is he in the field..i think ill steer clear from him! geez louise……..golf is cruel…..ill just bet sheffler and sit back and watch at 4-1 odds in a 155 player field at least seems reasonable because hey……its scotty sheffler😀
This guy knows his shit!
So question I joined Underdog a few months ago but never deposited any money to date. However if i deposit (my very first deposit) is the option to use Code “Mayo” still available or applicable since i already signed up a month ago??? Thanks.
Any model with DJ at 6 needs some tweaking.