Charles Schwab Challenge | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data – DFS Golf & DraftKings

The TOUR heads to Colonial Golf Course in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!

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SHOW INDEX
0:00 Intro
0:54 Course Preview
5:40 10K Range
11:17 9K Range
16:00 8K Range
21:40 7K Range
25:45 6K Range
27:05 5K Range
28:25 Custom Model
30:44 Outro
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what’s up guys Rick here with your preview for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge and if you’re watching or I guess if you’re listening you can probably tell I’m not at home I’m still on the road I’m still in Louisville I did a live show on Monday on CBS Sports Network and I’m not leaving till Tuesday morning so apologies if this is coming out a little bit later than usual or uh apologies if the logistics are a little bit different cuz I’m on my laptop setup or my mobile setup as opposed to my home setup so hopefully it looks good enough and sounds good enough before I can get back home into the main studio uh last week was an absolute blast I can’t believe I get to do this for a living but we must roll on we must look ahead to Colonial we must look ahead to the field this week and break down to the best of our ability with data logic and reason who has the best chance and who might H not be so good let’s get into it okay this is my website rickr good.com it’s a giant uh database for Fantasy Golf and golf betting we’re going to start here on the course key stats page this is Colonial Country Club this is a golf course that has been around oh my gosh I think it was built in 1924 um don’t quote me on that but essentially 100 years old maybe 90 years old but there’s been some big changes for this year um Gil Hans got his hands on this place and it is not going to look uh anything like we’ve seen before so while we have uh the data and the history here right we’ve got the regression model we we like or the model historically likes driving accuracy and putting keeping it within the tree line it likes approach play it will probably be a little bit different this year not in not wholly different so the layout is the same right it’s not like they’ve made dog leg lefts into dog leg rights or made fives into fours or threes into five like it’s not like that uh but there’s new grass everywhere okay the whole Golf Course has been resided it’s been regassed uh just every inch of it a few of the greens have moved a little bit and also um it’s a lot more ruged okay so they’re trying to throw this back to gosh don’t again don’t quote me on this uh 1941 US Open something like that it was it was the inspiration for the redesign so you’re going to see a lot more ruggedness you’re not going to see a bunch of clean lines you know those Creeks that go through the golf course those have been grassed over um you see things like Fescue or or higher grass in spots that that’s very Gil hansy and and it’s going to be just a little bit more rugged it’s going to look like an older golf course I think it was 1961 now that I’m thinking about it not 1941 but um that’s what it’s going to look like so so take this with a grain of salt but what we have here is a golf course that is uh kind of hems you in a little bit so you’re going to want to play uh out of the Fairway you have to be able to get access to these greens in two driving accuracy ends up being fairly highly correlated to success and then of course Strokes gain putting as well if you look at some of the deeper dives into um you know the one the the less the stats with a smaller sample size you get things you get a lot of approach stats here so you get proximity to Hole approaches from 75 to 100 yards approaches from 100 to two 125 in the rough Fairway proximity uh approaches from 150 to 175 it individually none of those are great stats I mean proximity I guess is is fine um but together it speaks a lot to the second shot nature of this golf course and I think that uh Colonial is a course where the second shot is very much tied to the first shot you know we talk about that at at harbort toown we talk about it at um maybe not Pebble Beach just like places where even if you hit a decent drive you might not have a great angle to get in on the second shot or you might not have a great look so um this golf course more than others the first and the second shot are connected to one another if you take every single golfer in this field look at those stats from above and take the last 36 rounds here are the players that are best adjusted fit onto Colonial Scotty sheffler number one player in the field number one player in the world as of this moment he is still playing uh Victor havin withdrew Sunday night there was rumors and kind of speculation flying around uh an expectation that Scotty was going to withdraw from this event that has not happened so I will proceed as if he is still playing uh but I will make that that note and again I’m I’m doing this on on Wednesday afternoon Doug gim is number two Keith Mitchell is three Adam Scott is four and Davis Thompson is five in terms of golfers that get a boost in adjusted course fit you can see some of the penalties for missing the Fairway and some of the rewards for hitting long drives if you miss the Fairway around here you are looking at anywhere from a quarter of a shot to a half shot penalty on basically every single Par Four and par five uh that’s a lot it’s pretty sizable on the PGA tour especially number uh number nine where if you miss the Fairway you’re it’s nearly two3 of a stroke that you are giving up to the field so playing out of the short grass is going to be very very important this week let’s name some names here again I’m showing you the cheat sheet on rickun good.com I am going to assume Scotty sheffler is in this field he has $13,300 and there is really not much more I need to say here you look at his stats from the PGA Championship they were nearly identical to his stats at the RBC Heritage and that was an event that he won um I was there on site obviously we reported everything on Friday when the news broke about him getting arrested a sentence I never could have imagined me saying on this on this YouTube channel then he will it was we did like eight straight hours live of live tele like it was just absolutely craziness and then of course he runs in there our set was right on the driving range we saw him come down to the driving range it was pretty interesting it was pretty cool to be like in in the moment while that was happening long story short the round that he played on Saturday um the worst round of the Year by far the worst round in quite some time by far after the adrenaline dump of Friday not having Ted Scott on the bag I just absolutely don’t care about it right and then he bounces back with one of the best rounds that we saw on Sunday I think honestly if if if he doesn’t get arrested he might have won the PGA Championship as well he was playing that well um I got to see him hit a lot of shots this week he’s just he’s unbelievable his his his process is the best his distance control is the best he drives it beautifully all of the above I’ll stop there because I assume um well I don’t assume but I don’t even know if he’s going to be in this field Colin morawa Jordan spe maxom are the next three in that 4K range morawa played great last week but uh struggled on Sunday never really got any anything going momentum wise Jordan speed has been up and down all year long but has an unbelievable record around Colonial and then maxom has been steady and steady at this golf course uh Colin I think is is fine I’m not excited I’m not going to be disappointed if you don’t want to play him I’m not going to have him in every single lineup I’ll probably just be try to match the field there Jordan spe I think is a lot more concerning um not only do we have the injury but we’ve got a golfer who this year has been unable to summon the course history magic so what I mean by that is there was a stretch of golf where um it didn’t matter the form that Jordan spe was in when he showed up at a golf course like Augusta National or Colonial or Pebble Beach or uh harbort toown whatever that like the places that he was really good at when he showed up there he would he would play well and it didn’t matter what his form coming in was we haven’t really seen that this year right he didn’t play well at Harbortown he didn’t play well at Augustin National I do like the way that his metrics turned out at the PGA Championship he gained Strokes on approach for the week and he gained um I I’ll call I’ll call Saturday a zero he gained in three of the last four rounds it was a better profile but it’s still only results in a t43 it’s it’s really it’s really just not good enough at this point now if you look at his Charles Schwab challenge uh which is really his Colonial history it is just un it’s just unworldly right the um I mean even from the first time he played it 7th in 2013 14th runner-up win runner up 32 eth 10th 2nd 7eventh missed the cut here last year lost four strokes in in the short game category so this is this is concerning to me I do like the trend of the way that his stats are going but I am not convinced that he is now um recent that he’s now like slump proof or whatever it might be that he can just show up at a golf course that’s really good for him and play well Max homo on the other hand he played I believe uh much better at the PJ Championship that his final result uh dictates and that final result was a t35 he he is his swing is is is so good I love watching it in person his 2024 has been one of the underrated he continues to gain throughout the bag he’s a great second shot player you don’t have to be particularly long here but playing out of the Fairway is going to give you a pretty decent Edge if you look at his history at this event ninth last year 23rd the year before he missed the cut in 2020 2017 or 2019 he finished at T t27 and then he missed the cut in 2015 so uh spread out over a bunch of years but the last two have certainly been uh very good which aligns with what Max has done for his entire career he’s got to keep the ball in the Fairway that’s the concern so we do really you know we don’t have a top of- the board that is is void of concern is void of issues the 10K range if espe I mean 100% if if Scotty withdraws there’s those guys have issues uh if he doesn’t then I’ll be piling up Scotty I’ll be piling up H just for full transparency here here are the best players in this field at Colonial since the start of 2019 Jordan spe number one no surprise he’s gaining 1.9 Strokes per round over his 18 rounds Tony fow is number two 1.78 over 18 rounds then col morawa is number three so let’s talk about Tony here this is a very interesting spot played good not great at the PGA Championship I got a lot of looks at him because he played with Justin Thomas on Sunday and saw a lot of that round um I’m starting to be fairly encouraged by his T to Green game but more specifically his his approach play so he gained 9.6 on Approach at the PGA Championship that is now like 10 of 11 in which he’s gained multiple Strokes on approach for whatever reason he cannot get the driver dialed in um you know he’s got all the distance in the world I watched him drive the green on what would that be four on Sunday which is probably the only guy in the field who could have gotten there and he and he did it and yet somehow this is not a weapon form and hasn’t always been a weapon form this year so it’s it’s it’s weird but it feels like fow is headed in the right direction while when you compare him to Someone Like Jordan Speed it’s harder to tell what direction Jordan is is actually going in um and then of course the the the good history as outlined for for Tony F now so that would be a a much a much more interesting buy for me if you liked SEIU Kim for the last three months um this is really going to put you to the test here okay so not only do we get the Mist cut last week and I’ll pull it up just so that we can look at it but I find seu to be very um very consistent very sticky course over course start you know like um year-over-year so at the PJ Championship the approach play finally cooled off the driver finally cooled off and he combined it with an always cold Putter and he misses the cut losing 4 point six strokes and I could give him a pass for missing a cut at a major championship it happens all the time especially a very very deep field like they have at the PGA Championship but look at his history around this event t29 last year was his best result WD Mis cut Miss cut 66 Miss cut Mis cut um I think the play here is to hold off a little bit on SEIU and try to catch that hot putting week maybe a little bit farther down the road he he tends to play well at courses he he has historically give him a Pete die setup or you know let him go to Windom or something like that and and let’s let’s unleash SEIU there this is starting to be a little bit of of of a sticky of a sticky pickle who hits a lot of Fairways and has an elite second shot game especially from I don’t know 150 yards and in and they have to be priced in the $9,000 range well that that right there is is Tom hogi of course right so so hogi is uh 35th in this field in driving accuracy and he second in this field in Strokes gained approach right so that is is 6.6 or excuse me 6.06 that he gained at the PGA Championship meaning he has not lost Strokes on approach on the PGA tour since the 2023 St Jude classic that was in August of 2023 so basically the last nine months the Putter’s coming around he uses his accuracy off the te lack of distance as a weapon um he this is probably the most shocking history because on paper this would be a really good spot for him and it hasn’t been um but I’m I’m willing to give that to give that another crack the the Harris English stuff continues to be really good T12 here last year and now something like five top 25s in a row including a uh including one of them coming at the PGA Championship a t18 at the PGA Championship I am I need him to clean up the second shot but that’s exactly what he did at Valhalla right he gained 3.2 Strokes there he always has a very good short game um so he can get hot but this is this is a guy who is a Savvy vet who has figured out way to finish inside the top 22 in both major championships this year inside the top 30 at Harbortown which is a signature event and inside the top 35 at another signature event at the Wells Fargo Championship so it’s it’s it’s really impressive what he’s been up to especially in some of the deeper Fields this field not going to be nearly as deep as some of those other ones that we have seen if you go to the 8K range and you or actually if you don’t even go to the 8K range if you just if you just go to everybody in this field in general and look for best players uh over the last 36 rounds 100% you’re going to get Scotty sheffler do you have any idea who you might get second would you get hogi would you get Colin would you get um I don’t know who else would you get well actually you will get Billy horel yeah 1.2 Strokes gained per round over the last 36 now it’s a massive Gap Scotty’s like two shots better per round than that it’s it’s absolutely nuts but Billy horel has quietly put together a really good 2024 and he won earlier this year you might not have realized that but he did just cash in a victory at in punana he finished eighth at the PGA Championship and let me just zoom you out a little bit here’s his stat profile from last year basically red across the board here’s his stat profile for this year basically green across the board and he can still be volatile that that’s Billy’s nature but he’s starting to reain that in a little bit the results are great he’s got a bunch of top 10 in 2024 including that Victory uh just a few starts ago and coming off at T8 at at Valhalla like we mentioned so Billy hell starting to play some of the best golf that I remember him playing and maybe that he’s played since he won uh what was the I was going to say since he won the FedEx Cup that was a long time ago but it was probably the year that he won I think there was a year he won Memorial and then he won oh excuse me I ex I’ve gotten like five hours of sleep every night this week but that is no excuse I hate when people say oh I’m tired sorry like okay sorry um I think he won Memorial and then he won a DP World Tour event like within eight starts of one another maybe two years ago or three years ago something like that so um he’s probably playing the best golf since then is Billy horel what else do we have here um Justin Rose so Justin Rose was a a pretty big candidate for regression over the weekend he he just was was putting the lights out he and Shane Lowry really rode a lot of momentum we were standing uh we were just sitting greens side we followed that group in seeing if Lowry could could shoot a 61 and break the major championship record didn’t do it tied it but um it was cool to see he and he and Rosie get after it I think Rose is a good not great option for this week I’ll tell you what this this is and feels like a sep straa event okay sep straa is becoming a much better golfer the jury is very out on his major championship uh future but he gained 4.2 Strokes on Approach at Valhalla and he gained 4.7 at the Ws Fargo Championship right I mean now four straight measured events where he’s gained at least three and a half two of them being majors and the other two being Signature Events are you joking me are you joking me right now so the question is just going to be can he Chip and Putt well enough to keep himself in this golf tournament and a lot of times he has the miscut it wasn’t pretty you can lose a lot of Strokes on and around the putting surfaces at valala I’m not going to beat him up for that but looking at the way that he sets up for this place he’s very accurate off the te he’s going to keep it in play there we’re starting to see a lot of second shot gains that’s one of the biggest separators it’s just going to be a lot about that putter is he going to be able to roll the rock well enough to uh separate from the field that’s the big question and I’m going to say yes the answer is yes he is $8,300 Thomas dietry is an animal okay dietry will do it a little bit of a different way so look at these results that he’s put up remember when everybody gosh was that last fall or the fall prior he he had a run where when he first came over from the DP World Tour he had been crushed on the DP World Tour then he started off really well in the fall I think it was this past fall and then he kind of cooled off to start the year and now we’re finally seeing why everybody was so excited about him and I’ll tell you what I I saw a lot of dri this week because he played with Scotty and someone else I believe no I guess it was Scotty on Sat no it was definitely Scotty on Saturday yeah because dietre pulled hybrid it was it was dietre and hubard okay so hubard drives the green on four or hits one up there close Scotty blows it over the green horrible mistake and then dri hits it to like 30 yard short with like a hybrid the way the ball comes off his Club is special just so good incredibly talented and now you’re starting to see those those results follow in toe and look a lot like that run that he had uh kind of in that swing season as well T2 in Houston T8 theer classic gets a team event and then T4 the PGA Championship like the way that he’s going right now he is um $8,000 even and then this is my weekly reminder that Keegan Bradley is just just way better than these guys and he is trending in the right direction he has three top 25s in a row seems to be in good spirits actually we stay at the same Hotel saw him a lot seemed to be in good spirits seem to be ready to rock and roll um he’s just way too good he’s way too good to be here 7K range and before we get there I want to look at the trends tool real quick because um this helps identify some of the golfers a little bit farther down the board so this says you know who is playing over their head or who is playing uh better than their 100 round Baseline right that’s that’s what I use here I take the 100 round Baseline and then I take the last 36 rounds or or whatever you want to use and we add a new Strokes gain Trend to it um and again Scotty sheffer’s up there Billy H’s up there but look at Maverick mcney up here M so the way this read is mcne is playing uh 1.16 Strokes over his I’m sorry he’s playing 08 over his 100 round Baseline which makes him a caliber player of about 1.16 it makes him a very good player that would be like Colin Mora’s I don’t know career average or something like that now Mora has done that for years and mcne is doing it for 36 rounds but you get where I’m going with this and then Doug gim and OA baa are also in this range and they’re also on that list so let’s do a deep dive on McNeely who if you know anything about Maverick he’s uh his his superpower the best part about his game is the putter however now that he’s healthy he drives it well his second shots are coming around the results are following in tow he’s healthy for the first time in a long time here in 2024 and it’s been really really good Doug gim saw a lot of Doug gim last week too he got into that field late and took advantage of it because he made the cut and then he ended up finishing t35 gaining everywhere but with the putter we have gotten that putting regression we probably should have seen that coming we probably should have known it was coming but it’s not as bad as losing two three four strokes to the field like he’s done historically in his career he’s now just like a minus one or less than that and I can live with that especially around this place and especially in a field this week and then I like just piling up Talent here a little bit right so uh Davis Thompson runner up at Myrtle Beach Classic I’ve been I’ve spent so much oxygen on him I I won’t do it anymore but I’m going to continue T2 at Myrtle Beach Austin eot spent a lot of oxygen on him the way that he has won this year and just kept his head down is admirable finish t16 at this event Mark hubard what does hubard do plays out of the Fairway hits his second shots well he’s well-rounded the only thing he loses at is off the team he loses off the team because of distance not because of accuracy finished T9 here last year he made four consecutive Cuts played well at the PGA Championship he’s got a great demeanor he understands his strengths and weaknesses so so I’m going for talent a little bit of Mark hubber not to say you’re not talented Mark but you you you get you get where I’m going here you get the most out of your skills a little bit of Lee Hodes here 31st in this field over the last 36 and dve having accuracy he doesn’t hit a ton of greens for me which which which worries me but we’ve got two really good finishes in a row PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship he’s got a the 12th and a 24th respectively he’s finished top 35 here in each of the last two years that’s special how about this did we see uh Rio Heat’s uh final round on Sunday at the PJ Championship I’m pretty sure it was tied for round of the day uh might be wrong I might be wrong maybe he got off to a hot start and gave a couple back I thought he Bryson and someone else shot the best rounds on Sunday and maybe he gave some back or maybe I’m wrong but either way his final three rounds were great he gained three Strokes to the field on Friday two and a half on Saturday and 2.2 on Sunday gained all four days finished t18 this is the heat that we saw kind of earlier this year or excuse me at the end of last year into this year um the end of last year was his his his DP World Tour stuff I think he’s finally getting more comfortable on this stage he’s been really good I’m interested to see how he um how he contends or or if he contends I suppose is a better way to put it the 6K range couple of interesting options I’m not sure how many of them set up really good for this field or excuse me for this event um Nate Lashley comes to mind he’s 6 $800 he’s cooled off just a hair but he’s had a very very good 2024 and his skill set is not overpowering it’s it’s Fairways and greens Fairways and greens Fairways and greens Fairways and greens which I can certainly get behind at Colonial um what else do we have here we got a couple of decent finishes for Michael Kim as of late but I worry about his ability to spray it all over the yard that worries me CT pan would kind of be interesting but he’s he’s struggled as of late that’s GNA be a problem Jorge campio is here so Jorge played uh he did not play the PJ Championship he didn’t play The W Fargo Championship the last event he played was Myrtle Beach he finished T4 there so now he has four consecutive made Cuts with three of them being top 25s they’ve been alternate field events or the Byron Nelson so they haven’t been the most stacked Fields but this isn’t the most stacked field either he’s not long he’s more accurate off the te than he is long um after he after he tees off he becomes a positive player in basically every single category so he’s somebody that I’d be quite interested in and then we do get a $5,000 range here so if we take every golfer in the 5K range and say who’s just the best player over the last 36 MC mner shows up here uh he’s gaining point6 Strokes per round that’s 24th in this field believe it or not and he’s $5,900 Wesley Brian at 5100 got in because Victor havland withdrew Wes is um Wes is fine Wes is good I like Wes I root for West this is probably you know it hasn’t been so much lately but on paper golf courses that are short and accuracy tests are better for Wesley than a lot of other places finished second here or excuse me finished second uh just a couple of starts ago in in P Tana missed the cut at the CJ cup missed the cut at Myrtle Beach but in theory this would probably be one of the better spots that you could get that you could get Wes on and then if you’re looking for someone really far down the list if you really need to open up value you’re probably not going to be happy uh because I’m not really sure there’s someone you I mean I guess Wesley at 5100 would be the would be the guy that you would go to because the rest of them are not particularly exciting let’s see what the model has to say let’s run a model custom model rickun good.com Charles TR challenge uh let’s do a couple of driving accuracy we could do let’s do a good drive percentage for 10 that is um you know can you hit this is like I’m connecting first and second shot are you hitting the f are you hitting either the Fairway or a Greener Fringe In regulation essentially are you keeping it in play enough to hit the green and then are you able to do that so I’m combining the first and the second shot there then I’m doing another driving accuracy number uh then I will go to I’ll do two things I’ll do strokes gained approach for 10 but then I will go into the approach numbers and do some of just the shorter areas here so we like do five on 100 to5 five on 125 to 150 um course history I would Pro because it’s such good such a good event that we go to every year I would probably put more on course history but it is going to be a little bit of a different look this time around so we’re just going to put 10 on course history then we need to do um we need to do around the green so we’ll do strokes gain around the green last 12 for f uh no let’s probably go last 50 for 15 and then we do need Strokes gain putting last keep that shorter 24 for 15 and then what we can actually do is we can put a little another another little nugget on uh bent grass screens because that’s what they’re rolling with now so let’s do putting on bent for another 10 and then we have 10 left and we are going to say fantasy points gained and our number one golfer is sure Scotty sheffler no surprise right colum Mora is number two look at this Harris English Billy horel three and four they are 9,000 an 8,800 putam is fifth Mark hubard six Ry Baden hoot Harmon Glover spe Todd Griffin hogi Troy Merritt are the top 15 wow English and Billy hor show week feels that way doesn’t it I appreciate all of you um I’ve got I’ve got to go do some more live stuff and we’ve got to catch a plane and all that fun stuff so I’m going to stop right there Wednesday live chat Still rocking and rolling 3 p.m. eastern time Rick run good YouTube channel be back at the home studio we’ll be ready to roll but I appreciate you guys in a big way uh let’s keep it rolling good luck