The Memorial Tournament Breakdown | Bettor Golf Pod

We’re here for the Memorial Tournament to discuss all things PGA Fantasy and beyond. The Bettor Golf crew will help you cash-in your DFS lineups and betting cards! Joined by special guest @TheModelManiac
@WinDailySports

what is up everybody Welcome to better golf podcast I’m your host Spencer agar as you can see Nick brwi had to be on a business trip today he will not be joining us but I am very excited to have my man Byron lindu on the show as the two of us will be taking you through the board for this week’s Memorial Tournament but before we get started I do very quickly want to talk to everyone about Underdog fantasy the proud sponsor of this podcast Underdog is now offering their new pick eight special where you can add eight selections to your pick them entry and win up to 325 times your money code bgp also gets you an additional firsttime deposit offer of up to $250 in bonus cash Byron what is up dude I know we weren’t able to do the Roto Ballers show together this week it’s nice to finally get together here and talk about the golf and it’s going to be like if if anybody out there likes our Roto baller show that we put together it’s going to be that just at the very end of the week where we have owners ship we know where odds have moved we’re going to be able to have the same discussion just with all the pieces now finally in place yes I feel like the show Spence is like when you have an outright that makes the cut and then lands up winning you know like we missed our R baller show to start the week but w’re really planning on doing this together and then I get a message from you like hey all right yeah we go so happy to be on the other side of the mix and just looking to to really just enjoy being a passenger today I mean as you can tell anybody out there watching like Nick is usually the one that takes care of all the background stuff and we started the show and I don’t know what everybody sees out there but on my end I have a huge black screen in the back here and uh maybe I’ll try to fiddle around with this and see if I can find some of the better golf stuff but that’s usually Nick’s doing on that but I don’t think we need to spend too much time today talking about the course like if you’ve made it to Wednesday and you’re still taking in golf content I’m under the assumption you know exactly how this venue is going to play is there anything that has maybe you’ve not talked about a lot this week anything at all that you would like to mention about this course I think Spence I think it’s gonna play very difficult this year yeah I think with the wind I think that’s just going to be how it’s going to be and I feel like maybe Jack of all places won’t let it get out of control you know like he he won’t let the PJ walk over him and let him like set the course up easy and cut the rough down you know I think we’ll be fine like I’m loving the scoring environment being low this week you know I think we’re can lean into that a lot yeah I it’s one of the things that I’ve talked about in articles and on a podcast so far it’s you’re gonna have Jack front and center pulling all the strings it’s we’ve gotten a lot of tournaments this season where the PGA Tour has really made this simple for the golfers you’re getting winning scores that are moving into the the high 20 under par range and from a viewership perspective and we can have a discussion how I would rather there’d be 156 players here I’d rather there be a cut that’s what this tournament is missing but I do think there’s going to be challenge you’re gonna have somebody who’s probably going to over the first two days shoot a total that takes that 10 shot rule out of play that’s kind of my prediction with that and so we’re going to have top 50 in ties whatever that number ends up being you’re still going to have the vast majority of the players that are going to make it into the weekend but let’s move into the board Byron um and let’s start in this $10,000 section so we have four players here starting up obviously Scotty Sheffer 12,500 Rory maroy 11,100 Xander Schley 109 Victor hin 102 I see pretty flat ownership outside of Scotty Scotty’s going to be over 30% the other three for me are in this 18 to 22% range do you see anything different than that is there a specific route that you want to go in this section I’m seeing Vic like in the 15ish range so that’s exciting to me a little bit you know that at least means that if he does push to 18 it’s not going to be 18 pushing to 21 kind of thing so I think the 18’s a nice number anything south of 20 is cool on Victor and that’s the most exciting to me I have that outright on Vic this week so I’m thinking I’m thinking status quo like I’m imagining he walks onto this property this week feeling as good as he did after the PGA Championship when he left last year you know I I anticipate that an 18 to1 was a nice number $10,200 nice number 15 to 18% ownership nice number you know like there’s a lot to like about Victor hland in my opinion although my model isn’t a fan where does your model have them ranked 11th you know so but it doesn’t know what I know it’s like it’s not taking in just the changing the coach you know and that immediately something so substantial changing so quickly with one variable altering let’s say that you want to start a build at the very top with Scotty sheffler because I I do think this is still a doable route at 12,500 it does make a build very specific and we had Pat Mayo on the PGA Draft Cast yesterday and I kind of like the route that Pat went with his build he went stars and scrubs to the max he he played hin and Scotty and he just went down into a essentially the $6,000 range I think he had Kitty at 7,000 also but is there a specific route if you start a build with Scotty sheffler assuming that that is still in play for you this week is there a specific route that you wanting to take is there a a secondary player because we can have the discussion there’s a lot of $6,000 golfers that are going to very naturally get paired with him I think if you can deviate away from that you’re already ahead of the game a little bit yeah I I think Spence like a guy like it will be people that I’ve had outrights on like Benny an like Keegan Bradley someone that I think can win this tournament that’s sitting at $8,400 $7,700 I think that’s going to be where my next guy goes because I’m still looking for really good golfers and although it’s a signature event and the pricing is pretty soft it’s there’s still tears to this all you know and finding finding the value guys down in the in the Sixers is going to be the guys that are obvious you know for the most part so that’s a difficult part with us all yeah I I have a couple golfers in the sixes that I think are interesting that are going to carry less ownership than a lot of these other names I guess the problem that comes into play is when you do go this Boomer Bust or stars and scrubs mentality you’re going to have to be very precise I know that this and I’m going to just keep calling it a no cut even though yes it’s top 50 in ties but these like virtual no cut tournaments you need every single golfer in these large field contests to land at the very top of the board you’re not going to be able to have one of these golfers come in 47th Place and be okay with it and I tend to think that when people are making builds in these sorts of tournaments like this that that is the one mistake that consistently gets made by Gamers and yeah I I I don’t know if that necessarily means that you can’t go Scotty sheffler and H land or I I assume sheffler and Mora cell will carry some ownership to them but I would want a very small player pull and I would want to feel comfortable with a couple golfers down there that are going to be able to create leverage for a build that’s already going to be very chalky with how the way I’ve started it yeah and Spence this isn’t like a uh signature event at peble beach which everyone in the field Peter Mady can succeed at you know this is myfield Village which is one of the most difficult venues on the on the Roto in windy conditions it’s going to be a major type situation and there’s a bunch of guys in this field that aren’t going to cut it you can tell now that they’re not going to play well do you have before we move on into the 9000s of these four golfers how would you power rank them out of a DFS Game Theory ranking system I’d go Victor is going to be my number one player then I’m going to go to Xander Scotty Rory I’ll still say Scotty number one I have a really hard time not wanting to use him this week I this is a very standard answer and there’s a reason why he’s going to be 35% plus owned I ran seven categories this week he was number one in six of those categories the one category that he wasn’t number one in he was number two this is a really strong tournament for him I I’ve talked quite a bit this week that mirfield inside of my model deemphasizes putting much more than most courses do and I don’t want to say this is a team no putt sort of an event but if you’re telling me that putting is deemphasized even to the slightest margin this is the Scotty sheffler Runway like he loses eight Strokes putting last year at this event and nearly still takes down the title the ball striking is so Elite I don’t want to tell anybody out there for specifically this event that he’s not in play I just think you need to be cognizant at the end of the day of exactly how you’re making builds so I’d probably still say Scotty is my favorite regardless of where the ownership is I’ll say Xander for me is two and then it’s probably a coin flip between Rory and havland my model has hin fifth overall it has a ninth for upside that’s probably more of where you are like the upside numbers are more where that overall rank is for you at 11th there but um you do see the market trending unfortunately against hland in a lot of these spots and when my model is agreeing with the market there it does start pushing me in a different direction yeah I think Spence though I’m I’m still shooting for his upside value which at this price and betting odds Etc are still fair you know I agree we we are I’m not betting him for a top 10 I’m not betting him for a top 20 I’m betting him top five and to win I’m playing him in DFS as a $10,200 golfer who’s a defending Champion you know that’s how I’m looking at it at a golf course at very sticky and um so I’m excited I I’m excited to see what he can do because he’s fun to have in the mix man like he he’s a fun rival for Scotty Sheffer in my opinion yeah each one of those golfers inside of the top five of my overall rank so you’re not talking about any natural fade candidates they all make sense you’re just going to have to pick your poison but as we move into the 9000s there’s a lot in my opinion to discuss here because Colin has gained so much steam since Monday where he is going to arguably be potentially the second highest St player on the board how do you view I guess my first question would be Byron how do you view him compared to the big four in this tournament and then how do you view that ownership compared to everybody else that’s in this range Spencer I’m I’m a fan of Colin because I’m starting a few lineups with Victor Colin because that leaves you with the same amount as Scotty sherlip click for your four guys and then you got to put Five Guys in the same B to Scotti there so I’m pairing him with Vic who’s low owned which is the fun part there you know that’s watering down that 20% a little bit he’s been so good here Spencer and His short game is amazing now and we can expect that do you want to be ahead of Kara’s irons returning because when they do shit’s going to get real you know like with the odds because when these irons start becoming world number one iron caliber again and the short game remains that we’ve seen the World of Golf is kind of bubbling right now Spence and there’s some guys that can burst onto the scene and start rivaling Scotty because their games are coming together I think Colin’s one of these dudes dude yeah it’s the es and the flows of golf to begin with we’ve seen every Elite player over the past I don’t know 10 years like we can date this back to Jason day and Jordan spe in like 2014 2015 Dustin Johnson had his run John ROM went through his little run you have a player for these very short periods of time who become the best player on the planet and there’s really nobody that close and Scotty I think the big difference is here is statistically he is the most ahead of any of these other golfers that I’ve ever had in my model I think for me from running my math over the past you know I’ve been in this space now since 2018 and I’ve been releasing my model over at Roto baller for about that amount of time now like the only person that kind of carried that similar mentality was Dustin for a while where my model thought Dustin was the clear-cut number one player in the world and that was at times like even if we date this back closer to like the 2015 time frame and we can talk about the choke that he had at Chambers Bay and some of those things but my model thought he was the best player in the world at that moment and it took a little bit longer for him to put the pieces together but I do agree I think we’re going to have players this Summer that are going to jump out and start rivaling him morawa is game now specifically that he’s learned how to putt and Chip and that’s not this deficiency anymore that it used to be I really like them I bet I’m at 16 to1 when this open I think that the ownership is perfectly fine with where we’re at right now you talked about potentially pairing him with havin that’s what I was going to do on the draft cast yesterday before Pat ended up taking hin from me I think my biggest problem or where I run into some issues with this $9,000 range is when you get beneath Colin you have Ober Klay Thomas Fleetwood hedi there’s a little bit of ownership that’s coming into play for a couple of these names and you can find some leverage if you go in the route of a Fleetwood for an example here but I guess I’ll give you a two-part question here Byron the the first part of this would be is there a player that you were just completely out on and then the second question that I would ask you is is there anybody that you think that you can create leverage to the field with I’m out on ludvig the the performance at the PJ championship and the knee still being an issue no bo no I’m I’m I don’t know what’s going on and I’m seeing him like 16 177% so if that’s the case with him and he’s still injured he could have a wd in a in a essentially a no cut event you know it’s 50 guys still make it but the majority of the guys we speak about will be making the cut you but ludvig likely of all of these guys has the highest miscut potential you know at 16% so I’m happy to take that off my plate and let him beat me in a field that I think other guys can hang out with him still you know if he’s still playing well so um for instance Patrick kley who maybe it’s the complete opposite not playing well right now but going back to a venue where Patrick KY plays well and we’ve seen him his course history is very sticky for himself you know his DNA he plays well at courses he plays well at on repeat you know like you can make a really sick looking chart of of results if you just filter on the right courses so this is one of them and we could in certain contest maybe the lower owned smaller contest get a Patrick County that’s single digit owned you know so to me that’s where I’m kind of leaning yeah the two most volatile players for me would be oberg and Thomas I guess I’d be more inclined to go down the Thomas route um some of the long-term is going to hurt him and I I can understand that when I build my model and we can have the same conversation about sunjay in a second where I think the metrics are starting to turn around for them and I understand the support that they’re garnering in the Spates I think the problem with oberg really comes down to this Boomer bus potential that’s in my model and I don’t want to make this like he doesn’t have upside from a statistical fit perspective for the venue there’s a lot to like about him he’s fourth in my sheet and we to T to Green for mirfield he’s inside of the top five for projected scoring the problem on the flip side of that answer though is he is injured there is a lot of ownership around him and when you take those and and I actually would say too the price tag is a little bit higher than it probably should be even when you base the stats into a c here like I had him as a golfer that should have been and we’re talking very thin margins here but a golfer that should have been at the very bottom end of this 9,000 range like 9,000 flat or 8,900 somewhere in that section so he’s a couple hundred too expensive and he’s going to be a top 12 13 owned player on the board I’m just fine letting that profile beat me this week I would not be shocked if he put it together and and found some results but I I don’t necessarily want to get forced into an option of a guy who’s wearing chunky knee braces and I know that we can say now that he looks fine in his swing looks okay and I’ve seen videos of him and that’s all great but you know throw him onto a course that’s going to have luscious rough and you get there days for four days and all of a sudden you tweak something or you do something else and you have a 15% owned oberg it there’s some problems that can come in from just withdrawal potential with it so I’m not GNA play him he’s probably the one that I’m most out on the one that I want to ask you about because this is going to be the leverage play If you’re looking to Pivot and try to find the difference here I do think Tommy Fleetwood at 9100 is kind of interesting and this comes down to where he’s a darling last week he provides a perfectly fine result in the perception of everybody’s mind here he’s too overpriced and that’s why people don’t necessarily want to play him in my opinion but like at sub 10 Perc I know that the results here he has not played this tournament in a bunch of years and when he has played it he hasn’t been great but he does have the total driving that I would want to see with absolutely no ownership do you have any thoughts on Tommy I’ve got a lot of resentment towards Tommy Fleetwood Spencer I doubled my unitage on him to top 10 last week enters round four inside the top 10 round four hole one double bogey yeah didn’t sniff the top 10 Again prior to that had a top 10 on him again and then what do we have a disaster so it’s just he just he’s been letting us down down the stretch you know like that’s the thing with him he’s just like running out of steams like old Manning it down you know like he’s just limping home for some reason so I don’t know like again at the RBC Canadian the guy should have contented to win that tournament and he didn’t you know like what are we doing I just I’ve got a bit of resentment now so I do I have to answer your question though I’ve been playing him a lot leading up to this so so if that if that helps you well it’s the resentment answer it’s the not providing the results that are paying off both the ownership and the price tag and you do that enough times over and over again at a price tag here where I think the consensus with the public is it’s a little bit too high you run into these spots where leverage gets created and for me I’m always willing where my model is very there’s seven players this week that graded inside of the top 30 of my model for every single category that I ran every single one of those golfers is a positive value compared to their DraftKings price other than one player or at least within a spot or two like you’re right in the range there besides one player the one player that was technically overpriced is Tommy Fleetwood and I agree but there is a difference between being overpriced and over owned and over price and under owned where there’s leverage there so I think there’s a leverage leverage potential where he can give you a top 10 result we don’t need that Victory from him necessarily he can pair well with a lot of options he pairs well if you can find a way to put him and Scotty into a build together and build from there you’re gonna be different with that Scotty build so I like Fleetwood I would say he’s probably my second favorite option in this range um I see James asking about Billy Ho we can get to that when we get to the $7,000 section so we’ll be sure to answer that question uh Zach is talking about the audience last night like Joel went full heel I I like ca did that for a very short period of time to where he started doing it and I think Joel saw that and realized that he can have full control over the situation and I don’t know how those two can ever get paired together I saw you in the chat last night Byron but that was that was wild it was unacceptable Joel needs to be brought to the people’s caught a petition needs to be made I got to be honest with you I didn’t think that there was going to be anybody this season on that show that was going to get thrown under the bus from the audience more than CA did with some of the moves that he did but it took Joel about yeah Joel said hold my beer and it took about a month and a half for him to just completely one up that so uh if you haven’t had a chance check it out we had Pat Mayo on it was a really good show he added a bunch of insight and yeah um I’ll let you right now Byron talk as we move forward about a little the stuff that you do with Pat I know that you’ve been doing a bunch with him recently yeah I I’ve moved back nine bets now which is presented by R balla to Mayo media Network now so it’s on mayo and that’s going to be moving there for episode 104 currently did 101 this week so I’ll be doing both back n bets and Mayo until 104 and then it’s completely going to be on mayo and then I do the fantasy golf degenerates show with Kenny which I took over from Tambo which was some big shoes to full so we completely um kind of changed the script there and and kind of took a little less DFS approach and a bit more betting for me and and I think that’s the way to go I’m not going to try pretend to be Tambo you know like so um we just made it a little bit of meow and and not everybody’s favorite South African so looking forward to a fun relationship with Kenny and all of his stories and fun stuff over there I’ve always said before like if you can be organically and naturally yourself in every single spot it comes across so much better than trying to be something that you’re not on these shows and uh it’s a very good show with you and Kenny and all the work that you do with Pat so if you’re not doing so already check that out and as Byron said you can find all of his work over at rodo ball or use the code Maniac there and you can get everything that he has going there thank you Spence thank you buddy so as we get into the $8,000 section um I’ll say this at the very start and and I understand that in a virtual no cut tournament you’re looking for golfers in my opinion specifically for gpps that do have high ceilings um the floor outcome here I’m willing to take some chances but I am much lower than even the consensus seems to be like I see him at 9% right now I understand the upside I’m probably out on Windam Clark do you have thoughts on I I I have a matchup it was the very first bet that I placed this week uh which is the wild price and a wild pairing when you look at some of this stuff I bet Tony fow against Windam at minus 120 and we move that number at Roto baller to minus 140 in the span of like seconds I don’t know I don’t know where it’s gone to since that moment it usually ends up moving back into reason at some point but um SP I’m I’m in dude I’m in I’ve got gats flying around me that’s how greasy I feel doing this but um I think wam wam Spencer 26% of the time he’s inside the top five in the last 12 months like just play him like as a as a as a process results based play like you don’t have to like him this time would you like him at the Players no you know like why would you play Windam Clark at the Players guy just he would have won that tournament if it wasn’t for Scotty like you just have to play this guy when he fires he fires he’s been off a little bit but I think we went through like a barage of golf he’s had a long time off now I think you know a few weeks I feel like he can find his Groove again kind of reset and go so I’m willing to take this is the perfect like I think wam has way more upside than Tommy and you’re gonna get the same ownership and a slight price discount I think that’s why I’m not as bullish on that 9k range as you are because I’m a big fan of these guys in the eights that’s where most of my outride card is and I think you know that’s where you can get some serious leverage this week I went back and I looked because I was curious I had Windom 10th for The Players Championship so my model did like him there I have him 36 this week 55th for safety 29th for upside so you do get some of that upside answer it just doesn’t pop enough for me like I understand I I think this is a much better play than a lot of these other options that we will talk about later on that might carry more ownership like I don’t want to compare a golfer that’s 8900 versus one that’s 7500 necessarily but if we’re looking for Pure upside with ownership that’s going to be somewhat similar like zotus is going to be more popular I would rather personally play wendam Clark and at least know what I’m signing up for there I’m completely out on will zot torus this week I’m out on Windam specifically for matchup markets sure sure I think any cash game lineups I want nothing to do with them I I agree with your sentiment that there is upside there that warrant some consideration I just still don’t think I can get there but the ownership’s great you’re gonna get an ownership discount Spencer his his top five rate is 26% his top 20 rate is 37% Scotty sheffer’s top 20 R he’s 89 xanders he 70 everyone else is in the 50s you know so that’s the matchup side of it you can you can you can dance the line either side of a golfer and bet certain markets to suit their profile it’s totally fine to be either side of this guy and and feel the way we do yeah do you have uh any thoughts I know James was saying hom is going to contend thoughts on hom this week yeah um FanDuel woke up drunk and posted their lines late and there was a 55 to1 on maxom out there and now I’m a holder of a maxom 5521 that’s got a smell of beer all over it because that line stinks of mispricing and now they 4’s out there again so Max has shown up at these big events Spencer like he’s his consistency hasn’t really been there but the Masters you know we’ve we’ve seen him contend at Bay Hill you know like there’s been some times when he’s really showing up and I think he’s he’s really trying to get there I think his driver is just a little off right now if he can find that we’re looking good you know like the rest of his game is he’s actually firing on all cylinders so I’m excited for that I think he’s got a good shot at at at trying to contend this week that is more of a name where like not to keep going back to this Windam Clark slander on my end here and it’s a oh boy spener I’ve I have just completely trashed all my boys this week like I think you’re coming from from a jail cell there you is this a Scotty shefer tribute today in your orange jumpsuit over there I I’m just grouchy today I guess with all these players that I usually am on I so much prefer Max H I think you’re getting very similar maybe a little bit more ownership with Max I see him more at 133% so like three four% more but look at H look at Jordan spe like I know Jordan spe has been all over the map and this is a a Nick special this week and spe is completely Boomer bust I I’m not gonna have the stomach to come on here and say that speed is some great play but you look at the course history here every other player that brings any semblance the course history to this venue is 15% plus owned and spe is going to probably be sub 10% because of the recent form that we’ve seen the irons are as bad as they’ve ever been there’s concerns with the game but I would rather play him I would rather play H I think we could have a conversation about Ben on Ben on is hated in the market for whatever reason my model seemed to like him I don’t know where your model has been on this week I’ve got Benny 10th side dude I have him 12 Benny like why if you’re looking at Benny an versus Jordan Speed it’s it’s it’s night and day it’s night and day when when Adam Scott missed the missed that chip or put or whatever to extend his playoff stuff or the the major run he’s now an alternate but you might might make it in but the next person that will now have the longest streak is Jordan spe and I was thinking if he keeps playing like he is right now in two years time that streak is going to be broken he’s going to be having to qualify for these freaking tournaments dude because he’s playing so badly he’s got one really good finish in a Valero Texas open which is like his backyard so good but not GNA make a big deal about that so I’m out on him entirely Spencer even at this kind of ownership it’s like I’ve done this before now there’s a lot of negative rank versus price points I guess would be the best way to explain that in my model in this $88,000 section like the only two players that were technically a value would be Ben on and Russell Henley Ben on has moved in the wrong direction when I added some of the sharp movement to my model he still shows as a value and there’s really I I don’t have ownership around him really I you can tell me where you have the ownership on benon but I don’t think he’s going to be extremely popular no he’s going to be the same as Jordan Speed he’s 11% 12% like that’s pretty much the range where I have so I I think he’s interesting I guess the point that more so I’m trying to make is like I would rather throw darts at the gal spe than Windam like that’s just my take on this and that’s probably the one spot where we’re going to be different here Henley’s going to carry a ton of ownership there’s not much that my model does not like about him he does have negative trajectory for upside which that is usually the one thing you don’t want to see when you start buying into these really trendy popular choices these are more Staples of cash game builds and their you know your head-to-head targets that you’re looking for but I think at the price tag he still makes a lot of sense yeah you know what’s funny Spencer he’s the same for me he goes backwards for upside but he’s 18% top five rate that’s pretty good you know that’s one in every five times he teas it up he’s inside the top five last year you know like that’s a lot 22 rounds 22 events so that you’re getting that reward for 14% he’s doing it 18% you know like I think you can match your ownership maybe to the top five rate of a of a player maybe and decide maybe that’s a good way to gauge how much you should play him so until there’s a certain price points you know I think maybe you can use that as a rule of thumb and I I kind of don’t mind it you know he’s been rewarding you for that kind of stuff at a course like this I agree he’s going to be in my player pool this week there’s there’s a lot of chalk that we’re going to talk about from him and like Keegan SE wo and we’ll move down into the seven Spence this is perfect James says three chalk or not chalk cash lineup I mean might as well right because your cash lineup could be a chalky guy that’s where you want to play them for the most part if you want to yeah so yeah you want to throw out three I would probably say seu Kim Russell Henley Colin morawa yeah yeah cuk Kim is definitely definitely there man like the price versus um that I would also say Keegan Bradley as a as a cash game play like cash game and strokes gained off the tea I think are exactly what you’re looking for because the more Strokes you gain off the tea the more Cuts you typically will make because that just means less stuff will go wrong for you and Keegan is doing stuff right now that is bananas off the tea so I’m I’m all in on Keegan this week all in I’m so excited to see what he can do because I’ve last year you had to drive the ball well to be inside the top 10 it changes year to year maybe it’s again like that this year I’m hoping because then Keegan’s in good shape I think cash game gpp I see 13% ownership he’s pretty much a staple of all builds of how I’m going to be making I considered him in the outright Market I thought 70 to1 was great price I’m in I’m in yeah you probably did the right thing by betting him there that number was too high I did not add him to the card my for full disclosure my outright card is feno in the 60s and Colin morawa at 16 I technically would have a a lot of room to add other players and at a 70 to1 price he would have been very easy to add he makes a lot of sense like he’s inside the top 15 of my model throughout all iterations of how I ran that and that’s including safety and upside markets there so that to me is just like even at that 133% ownership he’s one of the best values that I have comparing his uh DraftKings price against my rank and he technically has positive leverage at 133% ownership like he has to start pushing 16 17% for me to start questioning it and I don’t think he’s gonna get there and even if he does like that’s still a fair number for me he’s he’s not the right price you know that in my opinion affects the the the amount of ownership you can take on like if you would tell me is $8,700 and 16 17% ownership 133% I’m in but even at this ownership is not even that bad so let’s go boo like he’s been playing nicely and James we want all the questions that we can possibly get if you have anything you want to ask and this goes for anybody out there that’s tuning in like don’t don’t be shy we’re here to answer anything possible this is the exact structure that we do on our Roto baller show together if you haven’t had a chance to tune into that we’re here to talk with everybody we’re here to answer questions and we’re trying to have a good time at the end of the day so um let’s talk about some of these $7,000 players though and and I don’t obviously want to list all of them there’s a plethora of names to talk about do you want to give me let’s say a few of the guys that are going to be making your builds and a name or two that you want know part of this week sure gonna make my builds Tom hogi will zalat Taurus Shane l Keegan and SEIU I I think I think his chalkiness is also very validated and he’s putted amazing at this golf course it’s it’s quite surreal to see how well he’s actually puted for how bad of a put he is so to me it’s been enough of a sample for that to really kind of continue um it could always not just because golf is golf but I think his ball striking consistencies also just this golf course rewards that kind of stuff it might not give him all the upside in the world but at this price I’m I’m okay with with what he’s goingon to give us yeah I I keep talking about the deemphasizing of putting and you know on the very high end there’s some names we can talk about but you have some golfers here in the $7,000 section that their ball striking is as pristine as a lot of these guys near the top see we would be one of them Tony yeah Tony fenale is probably my favorite play on the board this week there’s a lot of similarities with what my model saw last week with Tom Kim just with the way that I am so much higher and and he’s trending in a direction right now where he’s going to probably be 15% owned and this there wasn’t a world on Monday where I thought we were going to get there but I think this is DFS players and betters in general just becoming much sharper with some of their viewpoints and you know if you find an advantage and specifically in a tournament like this you have to pick and choose your spots we have just over 70 players there’s enough players that we can cut out of the player pool to make this work and ownership’s naturally going to be a little bit higher than you would expect on every single name just because there’s less options to choose from I thought the fenale profile and he’s a name that I have talked about quite frequently this year I will say that I haven’t had an outright recommendation or a want in him from him in the outright Market since the Houston open that was a tournament he came second look at the ball striking that he put together in that tournament like it’s wild he didn’t win it because the putter went so cold but inside the top 10 of my model from an overall rank perspective the biggest Intrigue though he jumped into the top seven for projected win Equity that weighted Strokes gain stuff the recent ta to Green metrics he’s gained just under six Strokes per start over his last five tournaments this price tag does not make sense when I am devaluing putting here so I I’m going to be very aggressive on fenale I like your Shane Lowry Shout out I I think Lowry should be a name that you keep in mind for this venue inside of the top 20 for Me overall we’re looking at a golfer here that’s priced outside of the top 20 Keegan makes a lot of sense we’ve talked about sewu Kim I like sep straa I worry about the ownership ever so slightly with where we’re moving but I have a round one play I’ll talk about it on the show you can get it over in my roto baller article most weeks I actually wrote about it at action too if you want to read it but I have bigi tonight yeah I have straa minus 115 over Jason day um a lot of that has to do with Jason day over correction in the market with everything of I know it’s his home course it’s not his home course dude he would never play yet if he had to not to like terrible well that’s the thing Byron is it’s quote unquote his home course he is on record stating that he never plays here like just because it’s 20 minutes away from his home and he decides he wants to walk out to the facility in his boxers today it doesn’t mean that he’s actually good on this course you look at some of these approach numbers that he’s put together at this venue yes it’s as bad as you can see he’s over two and a half Strokes that he’s losing every single time that he plays it he’s lost 11 of the last 12 times he’s played the tournament and then oh yeah look at the recent approach metrics that he’s putting together they’re also losing over two shots so I I don’t necessarily have any yeah I don’t this is a Jason Dave play if you gonna play and day today yeah I I don’t understand like the group think mentality that comes into play where there’s not even course history to build off of from it like we’re literally just saying the course is close to his home like that would be no different I I’ve said this many times like I don’t mind coming on a show and giving this answer I’m a very athletic person golf is not my number one strength in life I don’t play much golf I run things from a numerical perspective and I talk about golf it would be like me saying that because Red Rock Country Club which is like a minute away from my home that I could walk to on the course that would be like me saying that that is a venue that I’m gonna go shoot a 60 at like I might shoot a 600 on the course if we being honest like that has nothing to do with it of being able to roll out of bed and play the course so there there’s been a legitimate overcorrection in the market with him yeah I mean the ownership at 6% is fine you know whatever I still won’t even play him at that but the at least in the betting markets take advantage of him where you can because that makes tons of sense to do that because he’s been terrible 11 of 12 Spen say he’s lost that’s incredible and they’re not just losing like you can lose like a tenth of a stroke like you’re averaging I don’t have it up in front of me right now and and I don’t know if you give me a second I’ll get you the exact number he’s averaging like legitimately negative 2.85 shots over his last 12 appearances here like he’s lost 2.64 since the API in March everything that can go wrong horrible combination and one of the things I always talk about is how do players perform on specific green complexes he’s a negative trajectory inside of my model for putting that’s the one thing that’s saving him right now so uh I think Jason day was the one that implemented the cut at this that event because he doesn’t want to play for around you boy he wants to get the hell out of there you talked a little bit about how Jason day has no ownership and like yes I agree with that is there anybody in the section and maybe you’ve named a couple already I’d have to go through in the ownership and look to see but Hogie hogi I have yet about six% I think you could get um some leverage there hogi eight of 16 tournaments have being top 20s for hogi at this price 50% T20 rate let’s go baby I’m in I I like Kirk kyama um at 7,000 I think you can get some leverage there I figure we have to at least talk about this player and I I I made this comment yesterday on the draft cast show and I think it’s at least noteworthy to bring up again here to have the conversation when you get a nickname and you get known as scam young people don’t want to play you anymore and you can see that firsthand with he’s he’s a $7,800 golfer that my model currently has at sub 10% owned I know that he has burned a lot of people in this space including like I think I think Elise might be like the one that gets burned by him the most shout out to Elise and like poor poor lady her and her and or like spe and Cameron young just seem to be the two that she’s a defense attorney I think she needs her own defense attorney for Speed and scam young like did you read my value plays article Spencer which is over at Ro balla premium product over the code Maniac but Cameron young is in there I I like Cameron Young’s upside it’s if I’m going to take a shot and bet on potential and this is kind of the argument that I’m having in a lot of these spots where my model can be lower than consensus but if I have a positive trajectory for upside in my sheet with no ownership that’s coming to mix look I I the goal of DFS is never to show like how smart you are compared to everybody else and eliminate an entire player pull here there are golfers where if you’re telling me they are fairly priced with an upside to their game and nobody wants to play them fairly priced is all I need to see with Cam young here to take a chance that he can give me a top 10 finish we we don’t need a victory out of him at this number like I mean in reality if he can just enter Sunday in 12th Place and back door a top five finish yeah that’s the perfect outcome for him yes yes he’s got one of the highest top 10 rates in this range you know so when you when your top 10 rate is like a fraction or qu like an exponentially larger than your ownership then we’re talking down you you know we’ve spoken about how this top five raid and and ownership can kind of intermingle with each other I think this is the time where you’re seeing the the two kind of intersect with each other and the graph’s going in the other direction so you can get some serious value with I’ve said this before take guys like cam young Tony fenal um I think Xander fit that bill for a really long time I I would even throw Fleetwood into there to an extent it’s these guys that have a lack of perceived win Equity that get hurt with their ownership sometimes in spots yeah throw him into the mix like there’s a lot of players like that where the profile of how they bring it into an event warrants a lot more consideration but because you’ve gotten burned or the general public has gotten burned so many times from a player you see cam Young’s name and it’s just take the red red pen and immediately cross them out and and I don’t think that that’s the correct way to play we’re trying to play a game against all of each other here and we’re trying to figure out a way of how can my lineup create better leverage to where first of all you need to get the top of the board to correct but on the plays that I’m doing how can I differentiate from everybody else and how can I do that to actually create leverage in my build there and that is one of the mistakes that people make is more often than not in large fields and I’m speaking specifically large field contests here this is not single entries and things of that nature but uh in these large field events builds way too often turn into what should translate to a cash game yes and that’s what you don’t want like there’s a place to to use a lot of these players those are people Spencer that don’t have enough money in their bank account in their DraftKings account to to survive the week and have to not put more money in and feel crappy about it you know like we all we all do it every now and then but like you got to feel comfortable kind of throwing lineups away but without being ridiculous to to succeed in these big contests we all create content and like we all want to talk about how great DraftKings is and how great these boards are and all this stuff but you know the thing that nobody wants to discuss is The Rake is really high in order to beat a really high rake you have to be much more aggressive than you think you need to be in these spots there the builds that end up winning are the ones where like if you can find your player pool and stacked yeah and you can like randomize it in a certain way that’s usually like the randomization that you would have never come up with of the players that are in that player pool are the ones that are like the pieces that get put together where it works out correctly with it it’s never the prototypical very easy to like decipher names that like whatever the build is that wins the the gpp contest this week and some of these massive contests it’s not going to be straightforward there’s gonna be somebody’s name that fits into that build that you got more aggressive on and you were able to put him into that lineup does that build have Scotty shefley in that SP I I mean to be honest with you I I always say no I’m almost leaning towards I’m leaning towards how big is this contest I I’m talking big contest here um I would say yes like if it’s over five to 10,000 people in the contest Scotty sheff is in that lineup I I think you’re correct with that um there’s going to be names like the Kurt kittas of the world and it might not be K but it’s that you’re able to put into a line with and you get that piece correct times where you pair it with Scotty and all of a sudden Scotty wins the tournament and you have five other pieces that land in top 14 of the Tom hogies of the world and the names like that that’s why Spence I’m doing single entries and three entries this week because I’m not playing Scotty I’m doing cuz the combination like the amount of lineups in that contest for it to have a Scotty in it is so much less because the the combinations of the five people aren’t as much you know so that’s I’ve preached that everywhere I’ve kind of been on with this year and it’s been okay you know I’ve been doing better I would say than the 150 Maxes I’ve been trying to do so um I’m going to keep rolling with it let’s move into the $6,000 section we’ll keep this very short um before I let you get out of here I do want to run through some of Nick’s uh overweight underweight plays oh yes I love those yeah you can give me your thoughts on them and we can kind of break those down one by one but before we do that when we look at the $6,000 section here my model at least has like when we get to the very bottom here call it 6,300 and less I don’t really have that many playable Commodities that I’m super excited about I think you could argue Cam Davis amelo Grio those would maybe be like the most enticing very bottom of the board options that I would be considering a lot of the ownership here has landed on the names that are over and over again making builds it’s Austin eot Lee Hodges everybody seems to have the same flavor that they like in the $6,000 section I don’t even want to talk about those names you can make your own opinion if you want to play them or not you need to know where like what kind of a build you have and what kind of a game theory route you’re going with it but there’s reasons people are playing them out there it makes a lot ofense there’s reasons why they’re popping in everybody’s models is there somebody that has lower ownership that you like this week yes Taylor MO is the same person as those other two in my opinion if you’re looking at just recent form you know Taylor Moore has got better recent form over the 2024 season than those other other two guys I think he’s he’s 4% which isn’t crazy but this is a 70 person field you know you’re not going to be if you’re finding a 2% dude he’s he’s likely got a lot of warts he’s ugly and and he’s the last chick at the dance you know but um you can hang out with that person until the lights come on but Sunday the lights come on and they’re bright and it’s not pretty so um there’s there’s a lot of you know 4% is fine to kind of pretend that that’s some nice solid leverage so Taylor Mo’s good there I’m I’m fine with that Victor Perez if he comes in at 4% I think you know that’s a solid solid option because he he finish second last week you know like we’ve seen this kind of stuff Keegan Bradley the last time he did up finish second like we like guys that are playing well do you have thoughts on putam versus Hodes Andrew putnam’s like overall safety for me he’s 38th and and um hajes is 65th for me like he’s really hasn’t come to like full extension yet you know like I see what he’s doing the approach numbers are looking solid but um butam overall if you’re looking for I think I’d still go Hodges though to backpedal their touch I I I would also I would also go Hodes for that answer um the best I mean I I hesitate even talking about Eric Cole anymore on a show I think he might just be legitimately broken so I’m going to exclude what my model is saying on him but the best values for me in the $6,000 section if we throw Eric Cole out of the mix model likes Justin Rose I’ve talked about why it likes Austin eckroad a little bit this week on different shows I’ve been on GNA have to carry some ownership with him I like Adam shank I think that to me can be a four five% own name that you get a little bit different with your build I see Zach asking about Baden how any thoughts on him he’s he’s so interesting I think I think so I think so I think with guys that we know are doing distance stuff the the longer the breaks in between events the more anticipatory I am of what they can do the upside in my brain seems to go a bit more towards the the ceiling you know like I’m I’m a fan so I’m in you know like he’s been showing some serious upside and and progress and you know we’ve had some why not he’s cheap he’s he’s South African I’m I’m in I’m I’m a big fan I I’m in also thoughts on James’s question Billy Ho top 20 yeah what well what’s the what I think he’s he’s give me one the perfect play for us right now like just blindly speaking I think I would bet him top 20s you know like uh if you have access to bet online I don’t know if the number is still currently available it looks like you can get them at plus 200 would be the best price in the market there’s a lot of plus 190s out there um it’s a negative 3% Edge for me but you know the course history if you if you really like the course history I can get Billy horel to fire up a bit better you know like I like it you know it’s not terrible you know it’s not like 9% Negative Edge it’s like three it’s cool you know 31 For Me overall 53rd for upside so the statistical data doesn’t necessarily love him but where he gets saved is the course history has been magnificent he’s inside the top 20 for me in safety and and I do think that that safety rating plays very heavily for some of these placement markets so um I’d have to run the numbers on it that’s not something that I’ve done this week with it and I can do it after the show and let everybody know but it would be very close based off of that well yeah like Billy hell the last 12 months is finishing inside the top 20 30% of the time plus 200 is 33% you know and this is a field of 73 people dude you know like it’s not 160 person field he’s likely not going to be having to deal with the cut hopefully and um you know this wasn’t this the the event where he had his meltdown was he the defending champ two years ago and then last year he was just playing like absolute garbage and cried on camera like what is Billy Hall’s outright like dude wouldn’t that be a full circle moment like we’ve seen some serious like sub stories and Bobby Max daddy caddy situation and it’s like I think yeah I’m in for Billy horel though yeah yeah I like horel I from placement markets I pretty much just didn’t run numbers this week in these 70 man Fields I never find Value everything is always a negative value for me and I didn’t have any massive disparities in my sheet this week even just looking at where there could be an edge like fenal probably would have been the closest and then I looked at some of the numbers and the market was overly respecting him to begin with and I pretty much went the route of let me find matchups I have three pre-tournament matchups I have all these J and day bets I you know there’s a lot of questions about day it just comes down to the iron play like it’s we’ve kind of talked about that already we don’t need to get into it again but I I’m fading Jason day this week as we’ve talked about we just somewhere over the rainbow like halfway through the show go and find you’ll see where go look for where my hat is backwards that’s where we were speaking about Jason day yeah let’s let’s talk before we let everybody get out of here let’s talk about Nick’s plays we’ll run through them very quickly Byron I I don’t need a very long answer one way or another he provides a really good overweight to fade every single week over on Twitter you can see exactly what his player pool looks like but uh his overweight options uh just give me a simple yes or no I’ll do the same Colin morawa yes yes for me also Russell Henley I’ll say yes I I I I hate the negative upside that’s in my model but I just think the price tag is too cheap unfortunately it’s a uh it’s fine um Xander shafley yeah yes I’ll say yes to Xander Justin Thomas no I’m indifferent I I can understand why Nick is going down this route I think it’s I think it’s a respectable decision I lean towards know myself but I think it’s okay I think I think his ownership of everyone was going to look at Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cy and be like H Justin Thomas you know like I think he’ll he’ll get steamed that’s kind of my mentality and that’s why I’m playing Tommy Fleetwood for that reason uh seu Kim we’ve said yes to him Keegan Bradley we’ve said yes to him Max hom I will probably agree with Max we both seem to be on the same page with straa as a yes I mean unless ownership gives you a different answer there oh no yes sorry I thought we were just cruising through names we all age we are I just just uh just just making sure doubling double checking uh we have not talked about Lucas Glover my model love Lucas Glover this week yeah uh it’s kind of just like whatever for me on Glover this week I haven’t spoken about him I haven’t like dissed him I haven’t like try to fade him he’s like just kind of in the middle um but nine% I think is probably why maybe what the hell is that about I my model loves him yeah my model absolutely loves him poan approach you know like sure um iara though you know the guy doesn’t like doesn’t Cleveland like doesn’t Ohio get pretty sweaty I don’t know potentially I why does Nick need even need to be on the show I’m just agreeing with every single pick that he’s given yeah that would have been that would have been the shortest show in history dude uh Jordan spe you’ve already mentioned why you’re not on him I think he’s okay I don’t know if I necessarily want to be overweight to him I I certainly understand why somebody’s trying to create leverage with him I probably prefer that route to the Justin Thomas stance you know with his rist sper as well at a place like this I’m not interested you know like if if it’s like Texas with like wispy rough I’m better with that you know yeah low I think we’re both yes on him and then and then the Fades we’ll we’ll just fire through these very quickly we don’t need to go through single name I’ll just try to point out the more the ones we haven’t talked about we’ve talked about why oberg is no um Cory Connor we haven’t talked about him on the show um I’m out like congratulations on your amazing putting performance in Canada to get you your first non-top five performance and your first top 10 in a in a long time so congratulations I will let you do that I’m out I think he’s great for cash yeah Pro probably not the route I want to go elsewhere uh he is fading baz inal I think we both like bade inal this week so there’s a little bit of a difference there he is fading Klay and havland uh you’ve talked about hland of the reasons why you like him I’m indifferent on the Klay player I think the problem is is kle gets a lot of ownership because of the the history we have here and if you want to talk about players trending in the wrong direction with spe like canl is doing a lot of those same metrics in his build and he’s getting saved where spe is not so I think from Nick’s specific structure of how he’s building it it does make a lot of sense for why one player is creating leverage for him and the other one I guess is going the opposite direction who was his 10K guy that he’s going overweight on uh Xander and that’s it that’s his only guy he’s fading Rory he’s fading hland um I assume that means he’s playing Shefler even to where it is and that probably is where I would third of the field he’s going to play thir like I have a hard I have a hard time not putting shuffler in though like if I’m being honest like I don’t know how you remove him I just don’t I I’m trying stuff I’m trying you know like I did enter a $5 into a big 50k payout contest with the Scotty Sheffer lineup though so I will put it out there because he will be the optimal so yeah why not throw him in there and just have a little bit of exposure to Scotty and by the way I’m doing the repeated Scotty top five bed which is just cashing like ridiculous right that’s minus million you’re like up a million units doing that I think right now yeah just bet what bet whatever it’s the mortgage play of the day brought to you by Scotty Sheffer he is fading Ben on I I I’m fine with Ben on I I don’t have a reason where I would I think the ownership is low enough that I don’t have an issue the market hates them I understand that but there’s low enough ownership that I’d be in there uh he’s fading zuris I am also fading zotus I know you talked about being on alores we did not talk about Hideki he is fading Hideki not playing Hideki the week before major with his injury track record now I think that’s probably a fair sentiment then the last one we he’s fading Windam Clark I’m fading Windam Clark you’re playing Windam Clark uh theala out on theala ich way on thala playing thala oh thala I lean I I think he’s too expensive I think the ownership makes him a fun Target I I I can’t get myself to say I’m fading a sub 10% version of theala so I I have no issues with him the last question we take unless we get a couple more as we’re exiting here Tom Kim for cashell no go do like a Shane Lowry instead like you if you’re looking for guys that have really solid like top 20 rate Shane Lowry 47% top 20 rate you know that’s 15% more than Tom Kim I know Tom’s getting his stuff together but Shane’s typically just way more consistent and way way more reliable he can Bradley Tom’s just like he’s still like a little bit of a teenager that’s kind of living in the basement and not quite sure what you’re gonna get you know so in my opinion like OB I still like him obviously I don’t know what james’ build exactly looks like and what players are in there currently and you know Lowry might be a name that he can consider based off of that but I see no reason to not want to play SEIU Kim and Keegan Bradley like sorry d obvious pivot yeah like like the ownership is not going to matter in those spots ownership means zero for cash builds like take the ownership and don’t even run it compared to anything like just figure out who your best players are and play your best players yeah like you you running an OP an optimizers are built for cash game yeah that’s yeah you know because it’s finding your value and just shoving as much value in there as you can and seiw is there um hell yeah I agree so we will let everybody get out of here obviously Byron I appreciate you joining us here uh tell everybody where they can find your work you talked a little bit about the Mayo stuff but uh if you can talk about the Roto baller yeah at the model Maniac on X I think I’ve been saying that pretty nicely now X is a pretty fluid thing off my tongue back nine bets is where my YouTube channel is but also I’ve jumped all my stuff to Mayo media Network on my Tuesday show which is awesome you know I saw the I’ve got a whole new audience over there and we kind of just linking up all these communities and kind of making a nice little web of love so yeah go uh grab me at at the model maniac and go check out all my stuff at Rola and use code Maniac there for yourself 10% off you really would love to have you on the team you know this wind daily root baller thing is a quite nice Dynamic going on yeah it’s I’ve I feel like I have successfully merged Both Worlds into one with this and you know wi daily like shout out to them and everything that they have going on like they’re they have great stuff that they release in Discord too so uh yes there’s a lot of amazing information that is out there in the space and um you know we would love for you to join and obviously Byron and I do it together at Roto baller but wi DA’s putting out great stuff themselves but you know the one the one difference between you and I Byron above anything else is you have transitioned to saying X old habits die hard with me and and I am always going to say Twitter so uh you can find Nick on Twitter at sticks picks uh we will hopefully be back next week together uh I am at T off Sports if you have any questions about the week from any perspective you can reach out to us there feel free to reach out to Byron on his handle um anything that he does uh check out his shows and as I said at the beginning use the code bgp to get a $250 match bonus over on Underdog that site is buzzing with the different sports that they have talked about the pick eight where you can win 325 times your money under dog has everything that you need to gain traction and action for any event and any sport that you want to do so we really appreciate all the support that you show us on this show I know Byron and I will I will speak for him here that we appreciate all the support that you show us over at rot baller so if you’re not doing so already be sure to check that out and uh we will see everyone back here again next week