15 Season Long LOWERS for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em

Josh Larky details 15 players to root against during the 2024 NFL Season. These picks are only available on Underdog Fantasy.

Timeline

1:15 – Jared Goff Passing Prop
2:45 – Josh Allen Passing Prop
4:45 – Trevor Lawrence Best Bets
8:15 – Josh Jacobs Rushing Props
9:25 – Chris Jones Best Bets?
10:45 – Ja’Marr Chase Lower Props?
14:30 – Justin Jefferson Receiving Props
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[Music] I’m Josh lury this is the Dominator I have 15 season long lowers for Underdog fantasy pick them we are going to get right into it before any of these picks or lines move let’s start with the quarterback position I’m taking Jared goof you guessed it lower than 28 and a half passing touchdowns so at first glance he’s had 29 and 30 the past two years so you’d say Josh that sounds like a a terrible pick but uh he played 17 games in those Seasons so if he even misses one game he probably would have been under the past two years he was higher in just one of his prior Five Seasons from 2017 through 2021 and while we can get this lower 28 a half on Underdog it is 26 and a half passing touchdowns juice to the under on DraftKings at minus 130 so you’re getting a significantly higher number on Underdog to take that lower that’s now turn to Bo Knicks I’m gonna also uh you guessed it high low who whoa who we’re going lower folks we’re we’re basically rooting against all these players today bonck lower than 17 and a half passing touchdowns so this is juic to the under DraftKings in the betting markets at minus 135 so we should already like this play and let let’s just dive into why I’m GNA take this lower for the the underdog fantasy pick them game so last year CJ strad was the only rookie quarterback who topped 17 and a half passing touchdowns Bryce young Anthony Richardson will Levis they were below it the the year before in 2022 No rookie quarterback had more than 13 passing touchdowns 2021 only M Jones was higher than that number Trevor Lawrence Justin field Zack Wilson Trey Lance those firstr quarterbacks were all below it bonck was the sixth quarterback taken in the draft many had a second or third round great on him The Supporting Cast is terrible in Denver and then if we even want to go back another year to 2020 Justin Herbert was the only rookie that was above that number Joe burrow to a takoa Jaylen Herz these guys were all below that number it’s very hard for rookie quarterbacks to throw passing touchdowns we are going to root against B Nicks in this area my third one is Josh Allen lower than 27 and a half passing touchdowns now Josh Allen I’m going lower than 27 and a half passing touchdowns but he does have at least 29 each of the Past Four Seasons so you might be like Josh Josh are you are you sure folks I’m sure because that was with Stefon Diggs that was with Gabe Davis they no longer play for the bills this is is an incredibly High number 27 and a half for a quarterback that could get injured from his goal line rushing and the other hits that he takes throughout the season with a worse Supporting Cast the there could be receivers not getting open maybe he takes more shots maybe he gets more sacks maybe he has to run more instead of passing more because the receivers don’t get open and then just icing on the cake 27 and a half passing touchdowns is juice to us 130 for the under on draftking so betters themselves the analog in the betting markets for this fantasy picks game the the betters also think Josh Allen’s goingon to struggle this year Lamar Jackson lower 3,450 and a half passing yards now Lamar Jackson was above this number for the first time in his career last season so five of his six NFL seasons he’s been lower he he was healthy for all six 16 games that he played in last year and he still just had 3,678 passing yards essentially he he he beat the 3450 by about one games worth of passing he was fully healthy and then you look at the betting markets and they have this number listed at 3,300 this is 3450 so you’re getting 150 passing yards a cushion to go lower there there’s just very little wiggle room for Lamar to be above this number when he was fully healthy last year and still only cracked it by about about 225 yards the running game might have more carries going to it now with Derrick Henry on the team overall we’re just going Lamar Jackson lower and then we’ve got a fifth quarterback uh lower before we turn to some of the other positions it’s gonna be Trevor Lawrence I’m taking him lower than 3,999 and a half passing yards basically I think Trevor Lawrence will have fewer than 4,000 passing yards now this is listed at 3,800 with heavy juice to the under and DraftKings so the betting markets the betters out there saw 3,800 and we like that’s that’s high let’s go below it and Underdog is still at 4,000 now Lawrence had 4,100 passing yards in 17 games in 2022 he had 4,000 and 16 passing yards in 16 games last year so he’s been higher in two of his three NFL seasons but barely and if he misses one to two games due to injury he could fall below 4,000 passing yards ultimately we’ve got the betting Market on our side here we’ve got Trevor Lawrence his profile knowing when he’s pretty much fully healthy he still barely clears this number so we’re just gonna go Trevor Lawrence lower than 39 3,999 and a half passing yards now before we keep going we hit the running back and receiver positions let’s hear a quick word from the obvious the best sponsor this episode is made possible by Underdog fantasy and Underdog fantasy is the leader in beste ball when you go to join an underdog fantasy beste ball draft it fills very quickly especially now it’s best Ball Mania season baby best Ball Mania five I can’t believe they’re best Ball Mania five already $15 million in prizes they’re giving out 15 million with 1.5 million to First playing in beste ball leagues makes you better it helps train you on player value and strategy and Underdog offers a lot more than just beste ball contest they offer pick thems my new favorite the golf pick thems the NBA pickham baseball pick thems going on throughout the off season hit the pick thems back to best ball hit the pick thems so use promo code underworld promo code underworld gets you a 50% deposit bonus up to $250 so they’ve increased the maximum deposit bonus it was 100 now it’s up to $125 when you get the underdog app use promo code underworld and go draft your ass off oh yeah draft your ass off and folks we what we are doing is we are picking Pi you know what I’m not going to we’re not going to go there I was going to say we’re picking our ass off that does not sound good let’s return to the running back position I’m Josh Lurkey this is the Dominator we have gone through five season long lowers for the good people on Underdog fantasy and we’ve got 10 more at the running back position Christian McCaffrey lower than five and a half receiving touchdowns this is Juiced minus 150 odds to the under on DraftKings so DraftKings is basically saying there’s a 60% chance that he is lower than this number he’s been lower than five and a half receiving touchdowns in five of his Seven Seasons we’ve seen Just Four Seasons the past four years where a running back was above this number it’s basically one per season and while I would I would say yes Christian mcaffry is the most likely running back to do it we definitely shouldn’t assume with a 5050 type pick that he is definitely the guy do it another running back that I am going to root against in some capacity for season long picks Josh Jacobs lower 1,25 and a half rushing yards he’s been lower than this number in two of the past three seasons mainly due to injuries and some ineffective uh rushing injuries they’re always going to be a risk with a running back like Jacobs he gets heavy per game touches there’s a chance that third round rookie running back Marshon Lloyd also siphons some touch is and if you like lower than 1,25 then uh you’ll be happy to know that in the betting markets under 1,000 is juice to minus 125 on DraftKings so the the betters are fully aligned with us here before getting to our the receivers which is most of my picks I do have one defensive uh pick them I’ve I’ve posted this on my Twitter before and the line is it’s still here so I think we should just keep putting oury money towards it responsibly my Twitter is jury tweets make sure you’re following me you would have learned about this next one months ago and uh yeah I don’t I don’t know why you wouldn’t just do that it’s free folks it’s it’s free I also have a win loss predictions thread on my Twitter it’s my pin tweet check out how I am predicting the NFL season to go down anyway defensive we’re doing Chris Jones lower 11.25 sacks you might be like why are you betting against the the the chief’s best defender well Chris Jones had 10 and a half sacks in 16 games last year so he was lower than this number despite being pretty healthy and pretty effective overall he’s been lower than 11.25 sacks in six of his eight seasons and lower in four of his past five and he’s 30 years old I don’t know what more needs to be said let’s hit those receivers I’ve got one two three four five six seven remaining for the good people CD lamb lower than nine and a half receiving touchdowns this is juice to minus 125 odds for the under on DraftKings we already like that CD lamb has been lower in three of his four seasons in the NFL now now he did have 12 receiving touchdowns last year but his quarterback Dak Prescott also led the league with 36 touchdown passes six receivers reached double digit touchdown reception last year just three the year before so you’re only looking at a few guys each year that ever reach it and I just don’t want to assume that it that it’s going to be CD lamb I think he’s likely but again we just shouldn’t assume with these players that can miss a few games due to injury uh Dak Prescott’s probably not leading the league and passing touchdowns again uh very similar we’ve got two more guys with the same L uh the same number Jamar Chase lower than nine and a half receiving touchdowns as well this is also minus 125 on DraftKings for the under but the under on DraftKings for Chase is eight and a half not n and a half we’re getting a better number a higher number to go lower on Underdog fantasy promo code underworld now Chase has been lower than this number in two of his three NFL seasons including each of the past two just like I said with CD lamb folks only six receivers had double digit receiving touchdowns last year just three did it in 2022 another one is Tyreek Hill lower nine and a half receiving touchdowns this is minus 135 odds juice to the under in the betting markets everything that I’ve said for lamb and Chase applies here as well 10 receiving touchdowns is just difficult and Tyreek has been lower than nine and a half receiving touchdowns in five of his eight NFL seasons oh you thought I was done uh Tyreek Hill you’re back Tyreek Hill you’re back in the Box get back in there Tyreek Hill lower 1,425 and a half receiving yards now at Tyreek Hill to his credit has been the first player in NFL history to record backto back seasons of 1,700 receiving yards but he’s now 30 years old he started having calf troubles at the end of last year that started to slow him down this is listed at 1375 receiving yards Juiced heavily to the under on DraftKings so the number is 50 yards higher on Underdog for their fantasy picks games than what the betting markets have it listed at we should just take that lower when a lower number is already Juiced to the under in the betting markets it’s that simple Stefan Diggs lower than seven and a half receiving touchdowns now at first glance you might say Josh this is another one uh face value it feels crazy because Diggs has been higher than seven and a half receiving touchdowns each of the Past Four Seasons he’s had at least eight receiving touchdowns each of the Past Four Seasons but that was with Josh Allen and without much Target competition Stefan Diggs is 30 years old he’s playing with a new quarterback and he might be behind both Nico Collins and tank Dell for targets significantly enhanced Target competition no quarterback continuity and it’s not seven and a half receiving touchdowns on DraftKings it’s minus 135 to the under six and a half touchdowns on DraftKings again a better number on Underdog to take that lower in their fantasy picks two more for you folks second to last one then I’ll leave you with my favorite one just to reain on a popular parade now this one won’t be popular either because people are just sick and tired of me trashing trashing Justin Jefferson saying that he’s not the the fourth or fifth best fantasy pick for 2024 I’ve said that on the Dominator multiple times I talked about how I’d rather have almond Ross St Brown than Justin Jefferson folks hop in your Underdog fantasy app right now in every format on their app alond ra St Brown now has a better higher ADP than Justin Jefferson I did it we did it you did it back to pickups Justin Jefferson lower than 1,375 a half receiving yards so he gets the massive quarterback downgrade from Kirk Cousins to either JJ McCarthy the rookie or Sam darnold for those pointing to Jefferson being fine in quotes without Kirt cousins in those four games last year Well in those four games two of them he was under 85 yards the Bengals Green Bay and then two games he had 140 or more receiving yards both those games were against the Lions he got lucky he he faced the Lions twice with Nick Mullen turns out rather than uh playing the Lions twice over four games I mathematically I looked he can play the Lions maximum twice over 17 games this year so we got a bad quarterback for Justin Jefferson compared to last year the potential for injury like last year when he was way under this this number he was way lower than 1,375 and it’s listed at 1,2 75 yards on DraftKings essentially Underdog has a a number that’s 100 yards higher than what you can find in on the sports books folks before I get you out of here with my 15th lower on Underdog fantasy I’m Josh lury this is the Dominator you can follow me on Twitter at J lury tweets that is the best way to keep up to date with my content I’ll have a couple more articles coming to player profiler this month of June last month uh at the end of the month I I dropped a really good article that I would recommend checking out I might be biased I think it’s I think it’s pretty good it’s all about why the Chargers are undervalued on Underdog fantasy and I I think if you read that article you’ll be hard pressed to disagree folks let’s get out of here though the 15th one The Golden Boy the generational Prospect Marvin Harrison Junior lower than seven and a half receiving touchdowns this might be my favorite uh one of the day this is Juiced minus 150 odds to under six and a half on DraftKings so it’s a full uh touchdown lower Juiced to the under as well 16 receivers had eight or more receiving touchdowns last year just 11 receivers had eight or more touchdowns receiving the year before Harrison needs eight to uh go higher than seven and a half do I think Marvin Harrison is going to be one of these like 10 12 15 receivers that that tops this uh maybe he could I I put the the chances of that at 30 to 40% so in a 5050 type odds pick them game like the the fantasy pick thems on Underdog fantasy we’re just gonna go lower Marvin Harrison Jr seven and a half receiving touchdowns to review Jared G lower 28 and a half passing touchdowns that’s number one number two b knck lower 17 and a half passing touchdowns number three Josh Allen lower 7 and a half passing touchdowns Lamar Jackson lower 3450 and a half passing yards Trevor Lawrence lower than 4,000 passing yards Christian mcaffrey lower five and a half receiving touchdowns Josh Jacobs lower 1,25 rushing yards Chris Jones lower 11.2 five sacks CD lamb lower nine and a half receiving touchdowns Jamar Chase Tyreek Hill also lower n and a half receiving touchdowns Tyreek Hill lower 1425 a half receiving yards Stefon Diggs lower seven and a half receiving touchdowns Justin Jefferson lower 1375 a half receiving yards and Marvin Harrison Junior the 15th lower seven and a half receiving touchdowns hey I want to thank you for being part of this broad if you have any thoughts on it leave a comment if you enjoyed it make sure you leave a like and if you want to see more shows on the player profiler Channel subscribe to it that’s how we know you want more [Music]