Pat Mayo and Matt Vincenzi 2024 US Open Picks and Bets, discussing trends, recent form, Injuries, LIV Players, Play or Fade and their favorite plays from each odds range.
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Show Index
00:00 Intro
00:44 Giveaways
3:42 Winning Score
5:07 Course/Skill Set
10:21 Scottie Scheffler
12:54 Rory McIlroy
19:07 Xander Schauffele
21:55 Jon Rahm
25:27 Viktor Hovland
29:42 2014 Leaderboard
32:13 Bryson DeChambeau
36:16 Collin Morikawa
38:24 Ludvig Aberg
40:16 Brooks Koepka
43:47 Max Homa
46:18 Patrick Cantlay
48:11 Cam Smith
51:04 Justin Thomas
55:37 Will Zalatoris
57:58 Wyndham Clark
1:01:30 Jordan Spieth
1:02:14 Matt Fitzpatrick
1:03:20 Tommy Fleetwood
1:05:30 Hideki Matsuyama
1:07:47 Cameron Young
1:09:25 Jason Day
1:11:18 Tom Kim
1:13:37 Min Woo Lee
1:15:22 Sahith Theegala
1:18:45 Tony Finau
1:1928 Tyrrell Hatton
1:21:15 Dustin Johnson
1:24:13 Sam Burns
1:25:50 Shane Lowry
1:26:56 Si Woo Kim
1:28:48 Sungjae Im
1:29:47 Russell Henley
1:30:34 Keegan Bradley
1:32:27 Ben An
1:34:11 Billy Horschel/Brian Harman/Cam Davis
1:35:03 Corey Conners
1:36:32 Rickie Fowler
1:36:40 Dean Burmester
1:37:23 Harris English
1:38:26 Lucas Glover
1:39:26 Aaron Rai
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if Windam Clark wins backto back us opens I’ll cut off my testicles on live here just it’s just not going to happen bat experience experience bat [Music] experience B experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy US Open player by player breakdown are we going to get to all 15 6 players absolutely not you don’t need to know about everyone in the field we’ll try to do like the top 30 top 40 or so in the odds boards right now to see if we’re in if we’re out and I had to bring someone in who is going to provide a little bit of push back on this one Matt vincenzi my man I am looking forward to this i’ I’ve been stewing all day waiting to talk to you yeah I feel the same way I’ve been doing all US Open stuff kind of trying to avoid Memorial talk I’m just looking so forward to the US Open looking forward to this show all week so I make sure I’m ready with all the uh stat far ready to go well I just want to let everyone know we are obviously you’re watching this before the conclusion of Memorial so we don’t know what has happened at Memorial although Matt probably does he just won like 25k or something last week so he might be from the future I don’t know congratulations once again on your big score by the way thank you I uh I needed it um had a bunch of close calls over the last month or so like second third fourth so finally got one over the line although Bob Mack definitely made it interesting towards the end and uh and kind of on my show before I I said I don’t really have any reason why I like Bob Mack just I have a weird gut feeling he could win a Canadian open and turned out to be true yeah when I went back and looked at all of the different links courses that correlated with Hamilton and Wentworth he was like the one Euro guy I didn’t take because I’m an absolute [ __ ] I ended up with Victor Perez instead obviously he didn’t win but enough about the Canadian open what I need to tell you right now I mean I’m not going to give away 25k but there is the ability to get into draw for some cold Hard Cash some fantasy National annual memberships and to get in on potentially a split of $50,000 because our good friend at shipit nation.com Tower tambellini at toag and Tambo has said he has two live entries still in the fantasy Golf World Championship on DraftKings and if he gets one or both to the final whatever the best scoring team is he’s going to give away 5% of that and if he wins that’s a million dollar so he’d be giving away $50,000 now you’re probably saying Pat how do I get my hand on some of this money well I got tons of answers for you the thing you can do that will get you the most ballots in both my draws and get you into tambo’s draw is go make a firsttime deposit at Underdog fantasy.com using Code Mayo you can get a deposit bonus of up to $250 but hell just throw on 10 bucks if you want to test the waters a little bit we’re doing a lot more Underdog content these days in terms of the fantasy pickham game and hopefully for the US Open I’ll have a very special announcement either on Sunday or Monday regarding the pick them game for the US Open so you’re going to want to have an underdog account to take advantage of that all right code Mayo get your ballots in the draw the other way to do that besides like telling a friend although I can’t really verify that although sharing around the show helping us out in big weeks like this is Paramount to this show growing and us being able to come to you for free all the time but what you can do to seriously help and get ballots into the draw for the cash giveaways and everything like that subscribe rate and review the pat Mayo experience audio podcast you do it on Apple boom you got ballots you do it on Spotify you get more ballots into the draw for everything so go do those things that’s how you can help us out during US Open week and Matt if people are watching this before its release dat it’s because they found the secret Link in the free newsletter you got to subscribe to that that’s right yeah all that sounds great yeah so you need to go do that too so you need to do the Apple you need to do the Spotify you go deposit and then you go sign up for the free newsletter the free newsletter is available down in the description so I’ll wait here we do that okay yeah I have my own promo code but I’m going to use yours because that’s how much I love you thank you so much okay let’s get into this Pinehurst we haven’t seen it since 2014 party Marty kimer won by a touchdown and a two-point conversion or maybe it was just an extra point you either won by eight or won by seven I think he finished at minus 99 then there was only two other players who actually broke par that week do you expect even par to be a top five score this week a great question I mean history would say yes there’s only been four players under par in the last three editions of the tournament uh I think I want to say no only because I think the winning score might be four or five but you might get a couple guys at one two three under so I think even does not break the top five although I do think it’s going to play tough firm and fast but these players are just so good and they’re getting better and the equipment’s getting better I do think it’ll be tough but we haven’t really seen a US Open you know worse than six under in the last five or six years and I know this course is a different animal but I’m going to guess you know there’ll be five or six players under bar I’ll have a complete course breakdown with Keith Stewart coming out tomorrow if you want to know more about the course he’s been on the grounds he’s seen it and we talk a little bit about comp courses and I revealed this on the memorial show that just scanning the leaderboard from 2014 it was crazy how many former Saw Grass winners finished inside the top 10 is that a course that you’d be looking at as well this week yeah I I heard you talk about that and I thought it was really interesting and I kind of looked into it myself and you right it was it was all over the leaderboard uh and I think the the thing that resonates most is the fact that you don’t have to be crazy long but really long players can do well there too H you know there’s a bunch of different ways to do it and I kind of watched a couple videos on Pinehurst and and the more I dug into it the more I kind of realize that there’s so many different ways to to go around Pinehurst and it depends how you attack the course and I think Saw Grass is similar in a way so in terms of skill sets is there a particular skill set that you obviously we’re going to have players of different skill sets on the betting card and guys that we like and guys we don’t like for you know bias reasons skill reasons whatever it might be can’t like everyone that’s the point of the show but is there a particular skill set that you would be looking at to say hey if this type of player can do all their things at their Peak they’re gonna have a very live chance of winning yeah I would say creativity because this golf course is going to ask you to make a bunch of different types of shots around the green you can see guys go High guys go low some Texas wedges um off the Te You Could See players hit driver on some holes but with a firm and fast run out you’re not going to have to you could Club down get a lot of run out in the fairways and still have a you know short iron into these grains so um I don’t think you know the last eight us opens we always say long and straight long and straight long and straight and that works anywhere and it might work here and I’m sure it will for some players but I don’t think the shorter players are ruled out relative to past us opens it’s funny the last time that I kind of used that logic for a tournament I ended up with a guy in second the guy in third the guy in sixth the guy in sixth and the guy who tied for where’s Aaron Ry here he finished somewhere up there as well it was at Royal St George’s uh in terms of the Open Championship when who a guy who I consider to be one of the least creative players Colin morawa ended up winning but I think if I had to have the prototypical skill set for Pinehurst it’s what morawa does at his best hit it above average distance be completely accurate dialed in with the long irons and don’t be abysmal around the greens which he was that week and we see it every now and then from him and that would be sort of the you know working backwards the skill set that I want unfortunately I don’t know if there’s anyone on tour right now that kind of matches up perfectly with that yeah I mean I I would push back and say you were right the first time on Royal St George’s and that was what the skill set required should be but the fact is the weather didn’t come and that thing played like a dome and there’s probably not a better Dome golfer in the world than Colin morawa because he’s so precise uh if that played like a real Open Championship I don’t think he would have won um so I I thought that was almost a little fluky in terms of uh you know there was no crowd either so it was almost like a dome the way they were playing that year and in this time um I do worry about Mora’s lack of you know not that a lack of creativity but when you think of creative shot makers moving the ball hard one way or the other around the green crafty he’s not the guy that comes to mind see he isn’t for me either which makes it even weirder that he’s had so much success at Augusta over the years which is a very similar thing that we talk about there maybe maybe when pressed to do these things he can actually do them yeah that that definitely could be true uh I kind of like to get gust a crossover just because it seems like around the greens you have those options of going low where you might not in a in a a course that has has rough all over the place with no rough here I mean that’s that’s going to be a similarity to Augusta no rough off the fairways no rough off the greens um and you’re gonna get some weird funky lies if you miss the fairways yeah one of the biggest things that I think you can look into this week and there’s nothing you can really do for for it or against it is even when Martin kimer won he had an incredible amount of luck throughout the course of the week like he never really drew a bad lie when he got into a waste area or had to hit off the mud from behind the greens once it ran out through the short grass and just you you saw like tiger ended up with like Rory ended up with some really terrible lies Brooks was somewhat in contention that year too and then he ends up drying just a terrible lie where it’s like behind a stick when he hits it into the into the waste area and there’s nothing you can really do you kind of have to take your medicine and go on but every time that kimer finally got into trouble it actually didn’t turn out to be trouble at all and when you have these waste areas which are basically sand areas something like we saw it Whistling Straits but much more devastating and it’s just off the Fairway would you look at sand saves or sand play or is it just too funky to even try to look at that yeah I mean I would look at it a little bit and I did look at it in in preparation for this uh it it they probably play very similar to Fairway bunkers uh and it was kind of interesting I was you know you think the um better players are better from the rough when in reality it it turns out that the best players in the world are better when they’re getting you know these R these lives that aren’t in the rough you know everyone the the rough is a great equalizer so you know if you can hack it out you can hack it out there there’s no real difference between player a and player B whereas these lies I think the cream may rise to the top because it’s going to ask you to make shots to get out of trouble instead of just hacking it out okay well enough of the Preamble let’s get into the good stuff Scotty Sheffer is the betting favorite at the US Open he is 4 to one currently and obviously these odds are going to change over the next few days or so but I there’s no reason for him not to be the favorite uh I don’t know about the local police department in Pinehurst but they might let Scotty be on his way he can probably stay at the resort there’s you a huge complex there where he can stay so he never even has to go off the ground so no no worries about getting there too early this time around if I had to draw up a golf course is the perfect golf course for Scotty sheffler which leaves me at real odds of what I want to do this week I mean what can you do I mean You’ make a pretty sizable bet to bet a guy at four to one and then that’s all you got and you know if he gets arrested again then you know you’re screwed but uh yeah it’s hard to argue with the fact that he’s the um guy to beat this week but I have I have a player kind of towards the top that I think is has a better chance than him this week um and I’m gonna go on a limb and say Scotty Doesn’t win this event I mean the the betting odds would suggest that you know even though he is a 4 to one favorite that he would not end up winning this week but I I just the way that I see I mean he’s won back-to-back Players Championships obviously he’s on the best run since probably Heyday tiger at this point and then when you start thinking about the creativity that goes into some of these shots where he doesn’t actually have to flop the ball up he can Bank it into the bank and let it roll up he can putt from off the green and when I think about long and straight I mean that’s Scotty it’s going to be so tough for for someone to try to run him down yeah I mean I would ask you this so prior to that arrest we saw probably 50 straight rounds where he did not seem to be human since then we’ve seen two rounds where he really didn’t look like the player that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing that round uh when uh ecro was who eot won um no at oh Davis Riley in the final round of char Davy yeah yeah he looked he looked completely off and then obviously that first round after the arrest which is more understandable and it’s just so hard to go on these sustained runs for year 18 months every single time we think a player is Invincible they find a way to take one step backwards and and they show us that they’re human again and he’s showing some signs of that now so I guess part of it is me hoping because I’m not gonna be betting on him is that maybe he you know he does come back down to earth um but I agree Golf Course makes a lot of sense for him great shot maker um the the gusta we talked about the players thing we talked about he’s going to be tough to beat but um you know winning two majors in a year is pretty rare especially two out of three so if he does it you know he’s kind of in that rarified air again Rory is actually second on the betting board right now at 11 to one coming off a nice result in Canada but he didn’t quite have his best stuff obviously he won the team event and then he won at Quail Hollow where he went Rory nuclear for nine holes I just don’t see this being a great course for him I I’m out on Rory for Pinehurst so I’m the opposite I uh I I love Rory um I think he’s he’s the guy to beat at the top and I think you know for a couple reasons one he talked earlier this year about how he feels like his skill set now he’s more suited for a firm and fast test and you know you might not think that makes sense for him because he’s W of a bunch of soft golf courses all his Majors have kind of been lower scores but I think 2024 Rory is not the same as 2014 Rory and I think a big thing for him this week or next week is going to be the fact that the pressure is not as much on him right at the Masters there’s always that career Grand slaying pressure and then Valhalla you know 10 years since his last major and the last 21 was at that core so everyone thinks he’s gonna perform not to mention he’s coming off a dominant win at Quail Hollow and this is the first time this year where he’s going into a major not under the radar because he’ll never be under the radar but he doesn’t feel like he has a huge Target on his back the people are talking about sheffler you know understandably so um I think Piner is a sneaky good course for where talk about the players right he’s one of the players um he he is good around the greens he is good from the bunker uh so I think Rory actually in the US Open history is completely insane the last five five starts in the US Open he’s gone T9 T8 T5 second so he’s he’s progressively gotten better each the last five STS and has not finished outside of the top 10 so I think he’s going to be the guy who’s around see we yes he did win the PLAYERS Championship but it was a lot like when Phil won the PLAYERS Championship like everything coalesced that week he hit his upside and it was a softer higher or lower scoring type players than we see in some years he only has the one top 10 in the past 10 years and it was that win at that course I just worry about his accuracy at the moment and maybe he can dial it back and doesn’t need to go full rip with the driver the entire time but when I took a look at the stats from 2014 it shocked me that obviously kimer is a very accurate player and that’s really how he got around the course but he also was way up in driving distance and I was trying to think to myself like how is that even possible that he raided out amongst like DJ and Brooks Kea in terms of driving distance because those guys were all inside the top 10 as well and then it kind of struck me like oh yeah cuz he hit every Fairway the ball rolled out for him he didn’t just end up in the sand and the ball stopped it just it took me a second for those two things to click in my mind that if Rory doesn’t try to dial it back a little bit and even it’s funny with Rory because when he does try to dial it back I find actually gets a bit Wayward like when he pulls out a wood instead of a driver off the te to make the very sensible play all of a sudden he’s like in the middle of nowhere cuz that’s just it’s not what he does he kind of needs to grip it and rip it and even though he’s been playing so well recently he hasn’t been hitting a ton of Fairways he’s just been playing at courses and you don’t think about qua Hollow in that way but you can play From the Rough at Quail Hollow in fact a lot of people play From the Rough at Quail Hollow that’s one of the protections of it that I think the premium on accuracy this week would be my push back against Rory yeah that that makes a ton of sense um I another thing I like about him is the Apex height uh he’s top five in the field hits hits a high ball I think we want players who hit High balls with their irons because I think the green going to be incredibly difficult to hold and then you’re gonna neverly miss some greens I think you can get up and down from from a lot of places uh I I do I do agree you know the accuracy does is a little bit scary but you know I I I’m hoping he has another good week this week not great if he if he wins this week he’s not winning next week we’ve seen that happen the last 10 times he’s uh won and then gone into a major uh so but I do think if he plays well figures it out and he said he found something in his swing on Friday at the Canadian open and then over the weekend he played much better so I I just have a feeling about about Rory at at Pinehurst I like it and listen the gut play worked out for Bobby Mack maybe the gut play will work out for Rory so you’re going to bet Rory at 11 to1 or maybe find a better number out there I got a 12 a couple weeks ago um and uh I was kind of looking at that and then you know I think I don’t love going to the top of the board and I know you don’t all the time either but I think if there is one event you should do it it’s probably a US Open or you know a a difficult major because someone from that top three or four five is going to be there you’re gonna have to beat him um and I actually had a an a future on a a guy who we’ll talk about I’m sure soon is it because he’s not is it because he’s not in the tournament is that one of the guys no no not him um it’s because I got a great number on this other player that allow ows me to fit a 12 with this player and I I’m happy to take that kind of Duo I think that Pinehurst and I mean it’s not like Martin kimr was some nobody when he won it was his second major he had won the Players earlier that year it made a lot of sense actually I think he went off at 45 to one when he won so he was in that next range of players but I do think that Pinehurst because of both the luck factor that can come into it accuracy over distance although distance does mean a ton I’m not trying to say that distance doesn’t mean anything it does mean a ton but it’s just going to be hard to have too much distance when you’re playing from the waist bunkers the entire time that I think this course is weirdly set up for a long shot to be very competitive whether or not they win I do think you can take some shots down the board here I completely agree I completely agree um and some names popped out and just the things I was looking at for some long shots Luc win is one he he he makes sense he wasn’t one of them um um one of them I was thinking of was Cam Davis because of uh kind of what he did in the qualifier Apex height I was talking about Ferman fast rankings Donald Ross he’s great on so he was kind of the name that came to mind for a long shot but yeah winning I’m not sure but I do think yeah you it’s not going to be that leaderboard that we’ve seen with studs from one through eight there’s definitely going to be some shorter hitter maybe some older players on the list there Xander shafley is next up he is 12 to one at the US Open coming off a major victory I am watching with much curiosity to see what he does at Memorial in his first start since winning a major obviously the stats check out there’s a big three it really feels like right now when you get to the betting board because there does seem to be a gap between Rory Xander and Scotty and then the next set of guys you can put like seven of them all in a bunch be it you know the live guys and then the next tier of the PGA guys but Xander has sort of separated himself we have seen a lot of this type of player someone who waited Sergio is really the one that pops to my mind that he had played so well he had played so well in major championships he was a gagger for so long it finally happens for him and what happens dude sucks at Majors for like four years I could see that happening to Xander I could definitely see it too and I would argue that um you know I am a spurned Bryson better from the PGA but he didn’t really have any opportunities to blow that thing and I think if you gave him one he might have um you know he he his last two t- shots he hit left the last one um was you know right on the edge of the bunker made a great shot to get out of there but you know the fairways were wide the conditions were soft it was playing easy if that’s a firm and fast and you pull one left like he did that thing’s you know behind a a tree or or in a waste area or somewhere like that so I think it did work in his favor that he was playing with a lead on a soft golf course that played easier than any ma major we can you know remember um I yeah it would not surprise me either like I think the you know the margins in golf are thin like from a loser to a winner all it takes is one bounce here one bounce there but it definitely would not surprise me like you said if he kind of reverts back so I built out a Pinehurst model I’m still tweaking it and I’ll have that on the show over the weekend and try to look really in depth at some guys that pop up uh just based on the waiting that I ended up doing it but I think for the first time ever the top three players on the odds board are the top three players in the model I don’t think that’s ever happened before yeah it makes it makes tons of sense um and I’ve been kind of looking at a couple categories too I’m waiting for the approach and off the te and those kind of more relevant um around the Green stats from after Memorial because I think it is probably going to be pretty uh important especially the fact that I think it’s going to play firm and fast this week at Memorial so um but yeah there are a lot of things that I’m looking at um aside from that that you know are kind of longterm and can’t be Quantified just from one week but yeah that those three are definitely separated from the pack they’re the three who are playing the best and you could argue that none of the other players are you know are even playing well at all yeah the only one that’s really playing well is morawa it seems he’s playing well not he’s playing like yeah I mean Bry is as well but we’ll see how he ends up cuz I mean I like that Liv has started to schedule their events the week before Majors I think it it helps them out although weirdly it hasn’t helped them out outside of Bryson so far in Majors that John ROM is next up on our list because he is the next betting favorite in the field it just hasn’t been ROM’s year it really feels like this move to live has affected him severely in terms of what his upside is he almost seems like a lost man still caught in between both tours and not really even a full-fledged Live member that’s just how it feels from the way he talks yeah I mean I would agree with that he still seems to be holding out hope that he uh can still play on the PJ tour once something gets settled and you know my opinion is that when he signed his contract with Liv he was one told that something will be done soon which we all believed was the case and two I believed in his own mind he thought he was the guy who was going to bring both tours together because you know how can the PJ tour continue to lose all these players and still remain afloat and he thought he would be the needle that moved that kind of brought them both together and said all right let’s get to the table and Hammer something out that didn’t happen I think that kind of took him off guard a little bit um and I think he doesn’t like being not liked like he he mentioned being at Augusta and feeling like everyone was kind of treating him like [ __ ] um and he didn’t he didn’t like that at all and then going into the PGA people were like hey 20 to one I might get on that and I never for a second thought about it because he just seemed so off mentally at um at at the Masters but then you’ll have live fans uh you know the die hards who are saying he’s playing great he’s second on the season standings he has eighth blah I don’t care about that this is supposedly in in in my opinion was before he left the best player in the world right up there with Sheffer um and I had him above sheffler for a long time don’t tell me he can go to live and being second on the season standings is telling me he’s having a good year he’s not I’m out on ROM here and there’s going to be a DraftKings case when that comes around like oh no one’s using ROM cuz I don’t imagine that he’s going to be a very popular player this week just just remind me not to get sucked in even if he wins in Houston this week yeah I’m not going to either um one thing I will say is I they did a little last 36 um and obviously it’s from Mostly Majors firman fast ranking he did rank out first on the Ferman fast uh we talked about Masters he’s won that he’s been good at the Players uh I do think golf course fitwise he’s fine but I don’t think mentally he’s ready to go and win a major well it’s funny cuz after he won the Masters and although it was his second major championship he had the second at the open to Brian Herman last year but that was a backdoor second tied with five guys like he was never in contention in that tournament at all he end up losing by five that’s really his only like great I mean he came 10 it was L like his 10th at La Country Club last year like he was never in that he had a good final round and ended up coming in 10th he hasn’t really competed since he won the Green Jacket no not at all even on live I mean the people look at the finishes but um I liked him in Singapore and I I watched that event and it’s it seemed like a perfect perfect John Ram course and every time he start to make a move he would you know spray one left go in the water he just does not seem like himself yeah I it seems like a mental thing because even watching mayakoba at the beginning of the year when it was Neiman and Sergio in that playoff like that was rah’s tournament to win he just started missing three foot butts yeah something’s off something is off and I refuse to believe otherwise until I see a true sign of that and the true sign of that is not the fact that you know he comes in eighth place in a live event is there a number if it got to it where you’d be like oh okay would it be 30 I guess but I mean every time that conversation comes up those are players that are not interesting in betting just like at the PJ everyone was saying the same thing about the 20 I can’t believe rah’s 20 he the second best player he should be eight 10 12 now he’s 20 if you don’t think he’s going to win and if he’s not in the mental space to win he’s not gonna this isn’t like an event on the PJ tour where we see all right the guy’s kind of out of form you know JT is down to 30 to1 this week this is a US Open who goes to the US Open out of form and wins it just doesn’t happen so no I’m I’m just not betting him Victor hland is also 16 to1 uh Victor gets his groove back just a little bit and all of a sudden everyone is lined up to bet Victor havland I don’t like Victor at this course H I don’t care what you have to do from off the greens if it’s not thick rough from off the greens that you have to chip in dude’s not hitting every Green in regulation he’s going to make a mess of some of this around the green play and just I I can’t be there for that if he hits his absolute Apex and his Peak he is perfect for this place if he can get away with missing a green and actually getting it up and down or he runs such a hot putter that when he chips it to 14 feet he makes those putts it’s in the range of outcomes just a very tiny range over at the right hand side that I I just got to be out I love him at Memorial I bet him at Memorial don’t like him at Pinehurst yeah I I mostly agree I mean I think he’s the type of player especially esally the last run of Majors that he’s had he’s involved in just what every major besides the one recently when he was completely out of form but gets back in form now he’s contending at the PGA again I think he’s gonna win a major very very soon this doesn’t feel like the right one to me either it just requires too much from around the greens and I think he can get away with some shots around the green like when it’s not the most important thing or one of the most important things Bunker play he’s been typically been pretty bad throughout his career um so I think you know he can get away with it he can piece it together and maybe even gain a couple strokes but I think when you have to make creative around the green shots in order to get up and down to win a golf tournament and I think that’s going to be happening here I don’t you know I I like him at trun I think it’s a kind of more Target um Iron player course this is just not the right one for me I agree so even to look at it a little bit more in depth because I’m going to start piecing together some different courses to try to build out what I have as my finalized mixed condition model if you want to get jump on to Fantasy National I know I’m giving away to you annual memberships if you go to Fantasy national.com Mayo right now get 20% off any of the membership levels and you’re still eligible to win the free year you you get your eight bucks back or whatever it is for the week and boom you you end up with a free year out of it so go do that right now if you want to do the walk through with me build your own models research everything that Matt is talking about in term of firm and fast and go look at some of these historic stats but I mentioned Saw Grass and the thing that reminds me of Saw Grass the most around the greens is actually heritage where Stuart Zink was able to putt from off those greens and absolutely dominate my poor Mora cabet a few years ago just like well there are different ways that you can slice this from around the greens and those do take a lot of creative play Victor has played at Heritage twice he’s lost a stroke and 1.2 Strokes at Heritage and then we get him to Saw Grass he’s played there four times never gained Strokes around the green lost 7 6.9 2.7 and 2.6 these tight surfaces just are not his thing yeah I wonder how Stuart snc did at the at the 2014 US Open that would kind of bring everything full circle if he did good in that then I think that you know puts everything together and makes it a great argument he was uh 13 overp par t-54 that’s it’s still going just forget I said that edit that out yeah he hey he made the it was the hardest cut to make in all of golf he made it he was there yeah it’s and you could probably say a 50-year-old Stuart sink isn’t the same as he was in 2014 I mean I’m sure his game has adapted and changed and he he gained a bunch of distance going to that Heritage uh event too but yeah I I I agree too when you have all those choices you mention it the times that he’s contended is when it’s been thick rough he kind of learned that shot um and I I heard a pro recently talking about I forget who it was about how those around the green shots when it’s rough and they don’t like playing off tight lies the rough is so much easier for them because it’s it’s much more predictable and they practice it all the time it’s a very simple shot for them so I do think it it requires an extra little bit of around the green skill when the lies get tight yeah and even to Circle back to that 2014 leaderboard like you there’s different pockets of players who were in there that you’re like all right you know this makes a lot of sense for this guy or that guy I mean kimer I don’t think pulled out a wedge around the green the entire week he just putted from off the green the entire week which was the savviest move of all time now he hit an exceptional amount of greens regulation as well which can go hand inand if you put the the putter in his hand 50 times you know it’s probably not going to go well every single time but he was able to manage that really well then you see Stenson like Stenson sucks from off the green but I believe he also putted from off the green a lot of the time as well like he just took that out of play for him really overlooking a lot of his downside but then you get to this little pocket of guys that like tied for 12th or ninth or beyond that Todd accuracy short game putting furick accuracy good with his irons but short game and putting coocher the same Marcel seam the same Kevin naw the same brand sniger the same it’s like saying like when we get to Patrick I mean Patrick Reed’s not in the field but if he was in the field be like yeah this is a great Patrick Reed course oh definitely definitely uh creativity and I have a couple guys who I think fit that really well uh a little bit you know not too far away but a little bit farther away down the board and like you mentioned earlier it just keeps everything does point back to the fact there will be some shorter accuracy players so what we want to think about and what I’ve been trying to think about is who are the current day versions of the cooch and snaker and and those guys Denny Taylor Moore I think is actually one of them yeah yeah Denny makes a lot of sense um and I guess Todd 2.0 he might still be there he’s still playing all right yeah Aaron Ry is weirdly kind of this guy too it’s just he can’t putt yeah we want the ones who you know the mid iron short iron and who also can putt um Danny is definitely one of them I’m sure there’s going to be more to we’ll think about well I mean spoiler alert I’ve already recorded with Keith and one thing that he had made mention about these greens like everyone just is under the assumption that someone took a bowl turned it over and those are the greens and that’s kind of what they’re like but they more reject approach shots and he was like they’re actually not that difficult to putt on like once you get to the right surface they’re kind of flat like the good Putters putt well here yeah that makes sense that makes sense and that makes sense as to why the putters off um the green will work because you don’t you know usually when guys have to go up top it’s because they’re trying to eliminate the break so if they’re relatively straight and easy once you’re on there you could probably that’s why the Texas wedge is effective I mean are you gonna tell me like spe is a really good play this week no no no no no no so everything that we have said so far I mean one of the biggest predictors of US Open success is US Open history and going back and just see the same guys at the top of the leaderboard every year like once you get good at USGA setups you tend to remain really good at USGA setups and this guy has one a US Open but everything that we’ve talked through so far does not seem all that great for Bryson yeah and uh he’s the guy I mentioned earlier who I do have a future on at 50 to one that’s a good that’s a great number yeah exactly so I’m happy with but you know I still have a case to make for him um at the you know at the 20 or whatever some people might have to bet uh couple one the Apex site I think is gonna be important he has that two again this is narrative based not really based in statistics or anything but the pain Stewart connection you know pay Stewart won here um in 99 and at one under Bryson that’s his Idol went to SMU to follow him with the flat cap because of him it just seems like there might be some kind of um you know Written in the Stars uh and then also just the way he’s been playing Majors recently it’s just the Masters you know Augusta is not a good fit for him either and he still figures figured out a way to finish T6 he’s just playing so well he’s his game is suited for majors and the point I wanted to make was the Texas wedge he’s one of the best players in the world with the Texas wedge he can putt it from anywhere I think this course enables him to do that um and he’s a you know he’s an underrated putter as well he’s actually a really good bunker player uh underrated bunker player too so if he can dial it back and he’s been getting better at course management that’s the whole thing is bright well it’s I think he’s always been really good at course management because he picks a lane and then he goes with it but sometimes he just picks wrong like when he picked right at Wingfoot it was like oh yeah he solved the course like this is what your him and Matthew wolf solved the course like hey let’s just do this and this is going to work and no one else is going to do this and it’s going to happen fantastically but it’s really funny to think back in time the week after he tried to drive that par five at Bay Hill he went to the players and came third and I can’t I can probably count on one hand the amount of drivers he hit that week he just used irons off the tea and even in his first go around he had played Heritage really well it’s another course that’s very course management e I’ve already brought up those courses twice because I do think they all kind of fit in the same bucket that maybe he can really Excel here but I just worry that if he chooses wrong which is not something he’s been doing lately it’s been a good run for Bryson but if he doesn’t have the right strategy he might be done by nine holes on Thursday he could be but I know um you’re a Bryson fan back in like 2018 isn’t this a great fit for 2018 Bryson oh it’s the best the best the best fit for 2018 Bryson and he I think he’s trying to become that I really do he’s lost already 10 uh you know 10 yards in distance average off the te uh I think he’s kind of Shifting and a lot of people haven’t noticed it they noticed the size but just from watching him closely over the last year and he kind of struggled for a little while and I think it’s because he was making that transition I do think he wants to be more like that player and he’s shown up at these courses you wouldn’t think he would you know based on the new beefy you know 400 yard Bryson and I think he’s training back towards that so if you think of him in that regard I think this might be the right spot it could be because as you mentioned like people do not give Bryson enough credit for legitimately being one of the best Putters in the world so maybe the problem can’t rule them out yeah I can’t rule them out either just I don’t like this price tag like you’re 50 to one I would line up to bet that right now like you you see it there give me I’ll give you the money you can bet that for me 18 to one when Brooks is at a higher number I know Brooks isn’t in any sort of form but this is a fantastic Brooks course yeah it should be it should be uh I don’t like that Mallet putter for some reason I can’t I can’t picture him with a major with it well he’s not next cuz his odds are still down the board which is shocking to me at a US open but morawa is next he’s 18 to1 I was really considering playing the morawa morawa double for Memorial and the US Open but I didn’t end up betting him because I got to it too late unlike you who I know you did bet morawa for mirfield Village it’s just everything as I talked about off the top just lines up perfectly for him the only like down part of his game as you can even see on the graphic right now like his approach stats over the past 24 rounds are horrendous but his approach stats over the past eight rounds the past two tournaments all of a sudden vintage morawa is back but he’s still chipping and he’s still putting that I if he plays his best I think he wins yeah and going back to your point about how important driving accuracy could be in his last 24 rounds he’s first in good drives gained he’s first in in um Fairway accuracy so he’s the most accurate off the te in the world right now and if the distance doesn’t hurt him which I do think on Sunday at Valhalla it did you know like if you don’t have your your A+ stuff and you’re 180 into every Green instead of 140 or 130 like X and Bryson were then it’s hard to keep up and you’re not making all the putts so I I do think this is a course where that isn’t going to hurt him as much the irons could be dialed in um it’s still not those Peak six seven approach per week that we were seeing when he was dominating with the iron play when he won it the two majors it’s not there yet it’s like four and a half per event which you know it’s still great but it’s not like best iron player since Tiger Woods that conversation we had before but I agree he does he does fit perfectly and I don’t think that he needs to be the six seven8 on approach if he’s not actively losing Strokes around the green yeah very true very true um how was he at the Masters around the green was he good yeah he was he gained across the board at the Masters yeah he’s he’s gonna be tough to beat um the 18 isn’t as tempting for me yeah that that’s that’s the thing the 18 sucks right I I I don’t want to like hope you lose your bet this week but I kind of hope he comes like dead last and then all of a sudden he’s 30 to one yeah that would definitely be a lot more intriguing um I can live with losing to him at 18 to one but I agree if you get to 25 28 you know it’s it’s definitely um a little bit better ludvig oberg is up next he has this knee injury that we don’t really know anything about he pulled out a Quail Hollow to play at the PGA Championship it was a preventative withdraw then he sucked at the PGA Championship and we haven’t seen him since since he shows up to Memorial now obviously we don’t know how he’s going to do is he the biggest wild card in this field because at full strength yeah is around the green sucks and sometimes his putter can be a bit Wayward but if we’re thinking about the new generation of who is the longest straightest player on tour it’s him yeah I think typical US Open he’s going to be a threat you know for the next 10 years um this is the one even at full strength like you mentioned around the green putting is going to be really important um you know I think biggest weapon is is the driver and um I talked to Eduardo Molinari today who told me he thinks that um when he first saw abber play orberg playing person that he’s a better driver than when he first saw Ro Rory mroy which is uh some pretty lofty praise and and I I I you know close to agree with it so that a guy like that you wanted a typical long and straight thick rough guy drills Fairways but it’s 330 every time I feel like he could he’s good enough where he could win and compete contend anywhere including here but not full strength probably um although I did see some reports that that sleeve that he had on before is gone today so that could be a good sign I think a lot of it we’ll find out this week and even to look back like we mentioned like he’s not a great around in the green player and you see that by the Sea of red on his fantasy National player profile page except when you go to the players and Heritage yeah there you go uh and he’s actually been really good at these shorter courses right one RSM so he he could fit with the the those players who are shorter off the uh shorter off the te and win kind of on the on the smaller courses all right let’s get to him Brooks kept go 20 to1 I spoke about this with Jeff on our Memorial preview show that if you just had a friend with a hundred bucks who wanted to bet on someone I feel like this is the BET yeah those those guys who bet the hundred bucks on the one guy they usually B on shuffler and it you know I think that probably has a higher chance of success than this one I just have no idea where his game is at and even after he won that live event um in Singapore I still had no idea where his game was at uh the putter has been bad this year really bad um and then he starts tinkering which I never like to see going into a major and I didn’t like it you know before the Masters um and he you know he’s been unar characteristically bad at these majors and is he the type of player who can just one day figure it out and and all a sudden In Contention and everyone’s kicking themselves why the hell didn’t we bet Brooks yes that’s that’s on the table but he’s not for me what was the what was the round of the PGA Championship where he really just he had basically he hit that mud ball I think it was on number 10 the the back nine yeah the Friday part five and just hooked it like I do now when I play just know he was just like I mean I don’t hit it like 260 into the woods left I hit it like 180 into the woods left but either way that happened and it seemed to derail him for 27 holes because his Saturday was awful one of the worst rounds I’ve ever seen Brooks play but it’s funny like when you go back and look at him for the week he wasn’t actually all that bad like he came in 26th he gained everywhere across Strokes gain metrics it’s just he had a couple really bad shots and outside of that I think it was that one round let me see the rounds itself where’s the putting at yeah his putting on Saturday was atrociously bad as well that it was really that one round that got him it’s funny like when you look back at Ben an’s stats as well it was round three at the PGA Championship that just kind of derailed him and that was the end of it now you don’t hear anything about benan yeah yeah yeah and the thing with Brooks I worried about is he’s been putting bad all year it you know he had that bad putting round but that’s you know nothing new this season he’s having probably the worst putting season of his career but prior to the Masters I think it was where he had every round of his season had been sub 70 um and you know what that means I don’t know but he had to be playing decent before that and then I think what he said was he was embarrassed with his master’s performance he got got to work with Claude um Claude talked about this on his podcast about how after the Masters Brooks called him and said I’m embarrassed like [ __ ] this let’s go to let’s go to work and then all of a sudden on Thursday he comes out of the gates hot and we say oh [ __ ] here’s another one from from Brooks and then you said that mud ball and so it would not surprise me if he figured it out um I’d like to see again another player at Liv Houston he actually you know helped design that that course so we’ll see what he does does at Live Houston but I’m going to be out for now with the acknowledgement that we could be kicking ourselves for this one yeah I this is what I’m thinking I’m thinking Brooks and morawa are my early leans I don’t have a wager in so far but I might have to make the Brooks bet sooner rather than later in case he has a good week in Liv Houston and wins then all of a sudden his number is Rory’s number the move on that is they’re never that fast to react to live see what he does on Friday Saturday they don’t change it until Sunday usually so if Saturday he’s in contention used to like it and he’s 20 pull the trigger then well fortunately he can’t win this week because eugenio’s going to win so yeah that’s right let’s go uh maybe I’ll make my Eugenio Brooks double and then I’ll be off to the races I can boost up more aawa that way since that’s a guaranteed winner at triple digits on live tour this week Max hom is up next four out of five times he’s played in the US Open he has been cut now he’s doing a little bit better in Majors recently top 10 at the open last year he was obviously in the final or the second to last group playing with ludvig at the Masters and he wasn’t bad at the PGA Championship he was t-35 not really a great performance by any stretch of the imagination but I I don’t really know what to make of him here I I just don’t feel like the US Open is going to be the one where he ends up breaking through although when you look at the courses where he’s won in his career and played the best they’re all sort of like US Open Light courses yeah Ewan Quail which is kind of in this region um I I’m kind of in the camp that he might never win a major uh I think I think yeah I think the Social Media stuff has kind of made him a little bit overrated so you know sometimes you’re forced to take a stance on a guy that you know I I have no issue with Max H but a lot of people think I like dislike him because I I thought he was overrated just because of his social media presence and all other stuff and he’s won some he’s won some good events he’s a good player um but I don’t think that means he’s definitely gonna contend winning the major but that being said I do think this is kind of a pretty good fit for him I don’t know what type of form he’s in um you know he he was uh among the favorites a couple weeks ago and cut yeah Colonial yeah he was like eight over in the first round so I don’t know if he’s informed I you know I wouldn’t be tempted to bet him anyway but that’s a good enough reason for me to lay off and it’s funny the the his best performances so far this year have come at sort of these elevated events strong field tournaments at long hard courses like top 10 at Wells Fargo where he does have a win in his career obviously third at the Masters eighth at Bay Hill 16th at the Genesis where he yeah he has win he beat fow in the playoff and then lost a when ROM banked it off the stands when I had money on him and I was not too happy about that Matt that was a was not a fun one but his off the te game has been horrendous for basically six weeks now and I just don’t think that you can get away with that here because it’s not like he was a sterling accuracy player to begin with now if he’s not hitting it far and he’s not accurate he’s pretty screwed yeah I I think so too I mean I I’m always a little bit skeptical of these players I’m I’m I’m long to adapt on them the guys who get 30 31 32 like him and Clark who have have this really great stretch they they play they you know they seem like one of the better players and they kind of start to aggress a little bit I’m kind of in the in the camp where you know he’s going to be a good but not great player for the entirety of his career well if that’s the case then so is this next guy and and until they like double his odds I don’t think that you can even consider betting him unless he does something magical Memorial which is on the table considering he’s won there twice it’s Patrick Klay like dude is like bad I I don’t get this yeah uh yeah I mean he’s been he’s been good in this region too I actually am high on Klay long term um I think he is you know in a class above even the homas and clocks of the world um but I just think mentally in these Majors he just doesn’t have it I I think he it’s a mental thing but it’s now it’s gotten between the years and I think he just can’t really play that well in major so um the number is tough I mean 40 to one is that what he should be I think he should be like s based on his play this year like they overrate spe massively as well every single week like spe should be 65 70 to1 every single week and so should can’t L at this point like he has what can you point to to say that he’s been good so far this year there’s nothing like he he should have won Genesis he played three great rounds and gagg that away that’s really been it he came third at the Heritage another place where he does usually play well but it’s not like he was sniffing contention there like once Scotty got into the mix he was just toast like he wasn’t one of the guys trying to run down Scotty in the end he just kind of came in third place and he was the one who like hit the second shot into the darkness hold and decided to come back in the morning to chip like I don’t know what’s going he said ever since he joined the PGA policy board he has been bad yeah I was on him at the herds I that was incredibly weird um at his Peak it it this could be a a decent golf course for him although you know what eight of his nine professional wins are on Bentgrass um I typically don’t like to to back him on Bermuda and because when he does win and he does look like a great player it’s because he gains eight stroke spting which he can do but I don’t think this is the place for it well I’m guessing that these next two guys might be your guys this week I mean you are the number one supporter of the Liv tour everyone knows that bought and paid for anyone who follows the internet this is just common knowledge to people out there on on the X machine cam Smith is up next you worry that he just doesn’t hit a fairway the entire week but if he can it’s great course this is a perfect course for him oh I love him I love him um this week or next week I don’t think I don’t think think there’s a US Open course you know in the rotation besides this one that I would ever consider him at I don’t think he’s going to be a great US Open player but although he has had decent even before he was cam Smith he had some good Open results yeah he popped up at Chambers Bay which now that I think about it I’m just trying to Envision because I’m like the only person on Earth who really enjoyed that US Open everyone else got really triggered about it I don’t see why people get so upset about golf coures like it happens sometimes like it’s not what you thought it was going to be so therefore it’s the worst thing ever like I I would watch an event at Chambers Bay I thought it was pretty cool like horel played really well that week and like cam Smith was really good so was Lou so was spe because that was a place where if you didn’t have your A+ stuff you had to start getting creative from around the greens and I find it so strange that he wanted St Andrews out of all places because I think there’s two ways you can really play St Andrews one is bomb and gouget which we saw Bryson do and Rory do and cam young do and then there’s the flip side to it where you get your Zack Johnson’s and Lehman’s involved and then cam Smith ends up winning where you hit some great wedges and you’re the most creative guy in the world and I do think the around the green complexes here really do suit what he’s up to and if it truly does benefit the great Putters I talked about Patrick Reed earlier that he’s not here but this would be a great course for him cam Smith like the really good Patrick Reed yeah exactly I I agree completely um creativity around the green is going to be important and he he’s weed with his driver and he’s talked about that he just does no has no idea where his driver is going I think he said that after one of the recent live rounds but when he clubs down he’s not that bad um especially if you can take iron let it run for a while and then you know you miss a green with a long iron so be it he can figure a way to get up and down doesn’t have to make a million birdies you know who makes more eight 10 foot par saves than he does and he’s starting to come around he’s starting to to get in form I feel incredibly strong that Cameron Smith is going to be involved when I don’t know but he you look at that leaderboard last last two three groups on Sunday he’s going to be there I can I can almost guarantee it all right well he’s going on the list for me because I feel like we we the guys that were both super high on I think I have to automatically put the star next to and give some serious consideration He’s 33 to one right now he’s another guy hopefully he just bombs this week in Houston and then we can get an even better number on cam Smith Justin Thomas is up next and if you told me he could break even putting I tell you he might win yeah this does feel like you know we we’ve talking about unconventional US Open players typically at a US Open I don’t love him but this is one where you know he does he’s great around the Green Incredible around the green uh Super Creative good iron player his driver you know almost cam Smith like where if he’s less than driver I trust him a little bit more um he switched back to that blade putter this week I don’t love the tinkering but I do like him better with that initial Scotty that he that he you know used to win with um and if you look at his Strokes gain page which I was doing today because I had to make the argument about him winning Memorial uh because I think he has a chance there he is trending back up in all these stats in terms of Strokes gain total uh the data golf rankings he dipped really low and he’s now all the way back to almost where he was you know someone said to me how can you bet Justin Thomas after you know how bad he’s been his last three finishes were eth 241 and fifth all in huge events if that was anyone else you’d say he’s trending towards a win but because it’s Justin Thomas and people are pissed that he’s let him down and he’s been bad for two years you know people look for reasons not to bet him rather than reasons to bet him and yeah he’s been disappointed for two years but he also has 15 PJ tour wins like this guy is good and he’s gonna be good again these things happen in golf players aren’t dominant for 10 straight years so he is trending up and I do think he can win one soon um maybe it’s this one uh we’ll see what he does this week yeah and even when I I think that the memorial SC stats are going to get skewed a little bit just because of how easy it is to hit Fairways at mirfield Village especially because it was going to rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday I would expect it to be softer early in the week before it really gets baked out but you could land jumbo [ __ ] jets in there and the 70% of the field hits the Fairway so I don’t think it’s going to be a One V one because guys are going to let it rip there knowing that they it’s like Windam Clark on the 72nd hole of the US Open last year like does he hit that big of a slice if he knows that he can’t do it I don’t know but he knew that he could do it so why not do it it’s one of those things where if you can just let it fly let it rip then that’s going to be very good for you where that’s just not going to be on the table here and the one thing that really stuck out to me with Justin Thomas and I’ve bet him a few times this year and I’ve been pissed at him exactly the same as everyone else has because he legitimately can’t Putt and that’s a real problem but I think through the American Express he ended up making a bogey On a par five when Nick Sabin was on the line I remember Swit and burns coming down the stretch and he was playing in that group with Dunlap and he ended up putting it in the water he ended up making Bogey and I think it was his first bogey in like three tournaments or something like that that his bogey avoidance has been off theart charts good which is shocking for a guy who misses so many short PS yeah yeah definitely I mean you’ve seen flashes of like vintage JT more so than ever before and he didn’t get it back overnight but it’s gradually coming back I I I would not surprise me if he was involved in this US Open um again going forward I don’t love him us opens I do think uh you know maybe even trin’s a good spot for him but I he he’s G to get back to where he was takes a little bit of time and I think he’s close I know that these courses don’t really have much in common with one another but it will be a USGA setup that what do you feel about Aaron Hills in this place I know they’re completely different courses but when I see the different types of players who ended up at the top of the Aaron Hills leaderboard obviously Brooks won Hideki and Harmon were number two then it was Fleetwood Fowler who ended up coming in second at Pinehurst Xander sniger was inside the top 10 that week as well so it was Trey Mullenix who’s kind of a bomb and gouge player but Justin Thomas was in there as well Patrick Reed was up there just like he was at Pinehurst last time Stricker coocher reevy like some of these shorter players that you just wouldn’t expect to be up there on a really long course and as I start going through my mind yeah there were areas they weren’t waste areas like you see at Pinehurst but there were areas where I remember Paul Casey making a triple bogey there because obviously I bet Paul Casey at a US Open because I’m a loser like that I was like oh he’s like the one guy this week who’s GNA make a triple bogy because if somehow you missed those gigantic Fairways you absolutely pooched but it was very similar around the greens where you weren’t dealing like with a lot of thick rough like you see at a lot of us opens that maybe some of those guys can end up propelling themselves up the list because you just see a spattering of a bunch of different types of players up there not the typical US Open style guys yeah I completely agree and that’s why I was kind of thinking Chambers Bay before too just also because of how baked out it was um I think those are two two good ones next up willly Z will Memorial tell us the story on willly Z because he seems a bit lost at the moment yes and even if it does even if he does play well this week which I I think he could um I don’t know if I like Pinehurst as a course for him that much um it just feels like he’s the the prototypical US Open with a thick rough he hits the Fairway great long iron player all the things that I think are are going to be helpful this week just like they always are but they’re not going to be the separator that they that they usually are um and he just has not performed in the first two majors like if he was going to do great at the Maj at the majors he would thought the Masters or you know Valhalla too so I’m I’m not really convinced of it yet I think he’s going to take a little while to get back into form yeah he did come top 10 at the Masters he just was never really In Contention at the Masters I thought I mean I bet on him when he got down to like 80 to one or something crazy at the PGA Championship he was one of the following guys that no one wanted to bet be like hey I’ll bet Will’s alot torus and you know dude couldn’t chip to save his life and that’s been his problem right now although at major championships and this was a thing with havin for a long time too that at a standard event he can’t chip or pup but you get him into these tournaments and all of a sudden he’s okay yeah that’s true I mean he definitely is a big game player uh and then the Masters yeah I guess he yeah he was ninth but typically you know he seemed like he’s gonna win every time he’s in form and then um so I yeah I I can definitely see him playing okay but H just feels like too much too soon I think that he’s lingering around there I’m not out on Will’s alator like you might be but I do want to see him do something at Memorial it doesn’t even it doesn’t even need to be a top five or a top 10 just play like adequately well three out of the four rounds like bury the fact that maybe you were playing a lot better maybe get a bad break or two you know I didn’t bet on him this week so you know he can not win for all I care in fact I hope Wills alatus doesn’t end up winning but just to see some sort of form like there’s a few guys that I’m sort of a wait and see process with and the next guy I mean I’ve bet on this guy already I have a future on him at 50 to1 and I thought that future was going to be very good for a while he might be longer than 50 the one by the time that we get to opening te at unless he does something at mirfield Village and that’s the defending US Open Champion Windam Clark who I mean I’m not really keen on his accuracy and although he’s been bad around the greens lately he’s a fantastic short game player he’s an excellent putter he hits the ball super high like you were talking about he does seem like a very logical fit here yeah I wouldn’t bet him at 500 the one um if ifam Clark wins backto back us opens I’ll cut off my testicles on live just it’s just not going to happen um I just can’t see it happening uh he’s his form has regressed um he was good at Heritage you know you mentioned that being potential comp but t47 at Quail people thought he was going to be Contender there PJ Championship was horrible the Masters was horrible um after talking about uh Live players only play 54 holes he only played 36 uh I just think he’s you know players like that not a super super Elite player pretty good player had a really hot stretch got his major that’s great um I think it’s probably his only one and I think he’s kind of in that little Peaks and Valley of his career he’s in one of those valleys right now it would seem to be that way I would tend to agree with you I’m not going to jump on the cutting off my own nuts train with you that can be something that you do and I do have money on Windam Clark to win already and I can’t get out of that so kind of hoping he wins now to see what you actually have to do with that you might want to retract that just in case nuclear putter Windam Clark ends up showing up cuz that is still one of his outs that we talk about you know the distance is going to be there whether the accuracy is there who knows the approach game can spike in any given week the around the green is usually pretty good the two courses that I continue to bring up he does have top three finishes at both them both the players and Heritage so far this season but what he did at Pebble Beach and I know that it was actually a live win because it was only 54 holes but the fact that he can just start draining 35 Footers and we’ve seen it over the even when he was a bad player and he was Windam Clark not a guy who we’d even consider bringing up on one of these shows that was still something that he could do and if this course truly does benefit great Putters I would classify him as a great putter yeah I mean off the team putting right is is kind of what he does really well um you know I just I just can’t see it I can’t see it um but he does have a good short game good good putter there are reasons to think he’s a good course fit to me it’s almost like narrative based he just won a US Open he’s been bad on the major this year maybe gets involved but winning would be just so crazy to me yeah I mean I would tend to agree with that’s why I mean I have him at 50 to1 I thought that number would be 20 to1 based on his performance throughout the course of the early year I bet that in February and it was looking good until we got to the Masters and his season got absolutely derailed and then he might be 66 to1 70 to1 80 to1 again for this US Open just like we saw last year when kust ended up getting the big win on Windam Clark it is funny because throughout the course of his career he’s been excellent around the greens like gaining basically Two Strokes per tournament around the greens and even throughout the course of last year like he had a few blips just like everyone does like not everyone has a great chipping week every single week but he gained in I don’t know 80% of his tournaments pretty substantially too and that weirdly has been the thing that has left him so far this year he has only gained around the greens in two of his past 10 tournaments Heritage in the players interesting I I think that happens a lot and I think the reason why is because these players you know when they start practicing something like he didn’t used to be a great iron player and then when he start became a great iron player that’s when he started winning a lot you know was just off the tea putting and around the green and then when you start focusing and working extra hard on uh you know improving that part of your game then you start to neglect what made you great in the first place and that it could be a terms of you know the rest of his game regressing because he’s worked on some of his deficiencies I think that absolutely makes sense and we’ll see if we can he can get it back this week I think the fans are now looking forward to this Jordan spe it’s a spot for him if there was one but dude can’t hit irons man like that’s going to be it’s going to be a tough US Open to win when you can’t hit any iron into a green no I think he’s hurt too I mean I he’s said he’s not doing anything with the wrist until after the season and until he does something with that wrist I’m all set with him because it’s seems like it’s a glaring problem I mean he got up to this point last year two years ago where he was a great player again for a short stretch where he was competing in every event and he’s just so unpredictable um he could he could be five shots clear after Thursday and I still wouldn’t think he has a chance to win because that big number is coming that that mistake is coming it’s there’s no way around it h Matty Fitz is up next he is a US Open Champion obviously beating will zot Taurus down the stretch and Scotty sheffler he’s 40 to one coming in he’s kind of been good across the board but because everything on his board is green like the putting you know he’s gaining putting he’s gaining off the te he’s gaining on approach he’s gaining around the greens but just merly like he’s a very average player at the moment who does not seem to be deserving of being 40 to1 he should be I don’t know 90 to1 100 to1 yeah he’s G that respect because he recently won a US Open uh this could be in theory a good place for him uh is he G to win you know two out of three us opens no and but he like you said he’s playing average right now he’s okay he’s getting a little bit better you he had that problem with the weight in his driver the bizarre story at the beginning of the year he was and he’s figured that out the driver driving accuracy is back again um I do like in tougher events difficult events grind it out he’s pretty good uh he has that crand chipping which is funky as well um yeah probably not gonna win two or to three us opens though as much as I hate to say it this really feels like a good Tommy Fleetwood course oh it’s perfect Tommy Fleetwood course perfect so top five bet on Tommy not not to win top five maybe top 10 that’s the route we want to go here yeah and if we do do that make sure everyone knows not to start bitching at us when he’s t33 on Saturday afternoon because he’s still he’ll still come in the top five uh yeah it does feel like I mean absolutely perfect you want want to talk about guy who hits Fairways um some bogey avoidance iron play’s just not gonna make a million birdies which is okay you might not need it here uh good around the green yeah I I can’t even think of a you know a better course for Tommy at a US Open than this one he’s a great major player I mean look at what he’s done in in Majors um firman fast he’s pretty good if you look at um Strokes gain total on very difficult courses he’s in the top 15 uh fir Fir and fast he’s 16th so yeah I I think there’s a lot to like about him can he win no I’m I’m I’m kind of done believing that now I mean I’ve gone down that path a lot of times not in Majors um granted but you know there’s some some an obvious problem there but yeah of course fitwise he’s great I I weirdly feel like he will get one in his career like we we mentioned Max homo or even Klay I think Tommy is more likely to get a major than those guys he’s more talented than them so the question is like does he figure it out between the years whatever is bothering him and but because he wins in other places he’s beaten Rory in big events it’s just not in America not a US event so I think the longer it goes the more that seed of Doubt continues to grow in his mind and I think it’s a real crotch and Bugaboo I mean he should go see the guy that Windam Clark saw or the woman that Windam Clark saw about the um you know the the mental coach Tommy Fleetwood has three top fives at us opens in his past seven starts like he has been very good at US Open opens over the course of his career I like the 40 to1 is just too tough with him if it got bigger you know I can always be squeeze my arm a little but I can get in on Tommy Fleetwood but it does feel like a very good top 10 top five bet to me yeah and even like one of those um you know the gold silver bronze picks when you have like a top 20 plus 150 or whatever like those seem really really likely for him this week I I really think he’s going to play well um but wi’s probably probably not in the cards well we talked about the Aaron Hills crossover a little bit and this guy’s name came up coming in second place at that tournament and he has won the players in theory during the co year we just have only seen him play twice in the past three months he played at the Masters and was bad then he took all that time off only to withdraw from qua Hollow and then you know Chip and Putt his way around Valhalla but couldn’t hit a driver or an iron which is very atypical of him and this is another player that I really want to see some life out of at mirfield Village because Hideki in a weird way if he gets his accuracy back which he has not been doing as of late and was earlier in the season he’s basically everything that we talked about with Justin Thomas except he actually does putt sometimes yeah and I think he has the stones to do it uh he he’s a great US Open player I mean he’s had a lot of um success at us opens and it makes plenty of sense he’s a um hits Fairways when he’s in form uh get scorching hot with the irons can putt uh I I like keki in theory I don’t trust that he’s healthy uh I think if he was healthy he’d probably be 30 33 to1 um and I just think the US Open is that kind of that the most of the majors where it’s really tough to come out of form with a million question marks and win the event what if we see like three good rounds from him this week and you see what you want to see from the stats yeah he’s one of those numbers that could definitely take a nose dive if he starts you know if he’s in contention on Saturday yeah I think even if I start seeing it Midway through round one like he’s actually just striping it and hitting it on the screws again I’d be like yeah good enough for me I’m in what’s he 50 to one yeah he’s 50 to one yeah it’s a good number I like I like decky yeah he was 35th here in 2014 you you forget that like how old is Hideki now because even I forget it all the time I think he’s only like 31 years old yeah 31 so he what he he would have been 21 at that time yeah he’s 32 now yeah so yeah he would have been he would have been 22 when he last played and his game I would say is much better now yeah he’s he seems a great Golf Course uh fit and he’s so good around the green that’s one of the most underrated things about Hideki people think because he misses short putt sometimes that he’s not a good around the green player but he’s one of the best uh throughout the early course of the year we had been talking about cam young and how well he had played at Majors and that just has not come to fruition he did have a top 10 at the Masters that was nice but he’s 50 to one in this market right now scam young can’t win any tournaments he’s he’s very much shaping up to be the new Tommy Fleetwood or whoever the hell you want to throw on that mixx but he has played longer harder courses really well he’s played shorter courses quite well too weirdly enough in his career I I just I don’t know where his game is at he’s kind of like I mean Windam Clark has two has a signature event win he has two signature event wins and a major over the course of the past 15 months or so we talk about cam young like he’s done the same but they’re both kind of on the downward spiral right now it feels like yeah I mean you say you don’t know where his game is I know where he is it’s [ __ ] he’s his last five last five events 62nd 34th 63rd cut um and he and I’m sure he’s one of the most popular bets in all five of those events too like everyone keeps expecting he’s going to turn it around and I’ve bet him a couple times too but he hasn’t he hasn’t um and the’re players 54th um Pro Pebble Beach proam 70th you know these are courses you know the courses that he could maybe have that Spike week is if it was like a winged foot when you had a Matt wolf and Bryson in the mix because he’s he’s so good off the tea but even you know he’s been okay off the te but he’s gaining his last four starts um 0.9.3 point4 like if he’s doing that off the T he has no chance whatsoever and he’s lost Strokes on approaching three of his last four he’s losing around the green he can never really putt I just think he’s completely going the wrong direction Jason day is up next and of the top 45 players on the odds board only two are in the minus TI to Green for the past 24 rounds it’s Ricky and it’s day he’s currently 50 to1 he was inside the top five the last time they played at Pinehurst I’m not going to bet him to win cuz this number is ridiculous it should be like four times this number however I will say for a placement a top 20 whatever it might be and I think this number resets hard come Monday because unless he like wins Memorial or something which I don’t think that he’s going to do he’s more likely to be cut than win Memorial but the around the green is great the putting remains great that almost like what we saw from Justin Rose at the PGA Championship where this guy with no form just has a great week I could see Jason day having a great week at this course yeah I could definitely see it um and he’s done that recently I mean at Wells Fargo he finished T4 he gained over eight Strokes short game around the green and putting combined uh so can he do that yeah and he’s he’s his putting has been excellent this year he’s gained Strokes putting in 10 straight events so could he go and Putt anywhere and win absolutely and um you know but I I I do think course fitwise it does make some his his approach has been horrible though he’s lost Strokes on approach in six of his last nine starts so it would have to be that situation you you described which I guess is possible but even Rose gained Strokes on on approach of the PGA he did but I’m just thinking where you would have to gain Strokes at the PGA when the winning score is going to be minus 20 if you were going to be in contention like I could see guys with just absurdly bad approach stats this week and still grind out a bunch of pars and that be good enough to keep them just lingering around if we think that the winning score is going to be like even or minus one or something like that yeah everything we we’ve been talking about keeps pointing me to Denny for some reason not that he can win but like he’s going to be that random guy who finishes third or fourth well if this guy’s putter remains as hot as it was over the weekend in Canada why can’t Tom Kim be that guy yeah yeah that does make some sense uh and he was striping the ball at um over the weekend um Friday Saturday Sunday like Thursday um he was missing putts and then Saturday and Sunday he started making him and he climbed up the leaderboard but he hit the ball great uh he gained over four strokes on approach which is the most since the Masters um and he’s starting to play better right he’s 26 24th and fourth his last three starts uh Memorial I was kind of looking at him it doesn’t seem like the right fit this could be the right fit but we haven’t really seen him and this you know this feels like a unique kind of course that I don’t really know what to expect I like him on those little short courses where he can win anywhere like I think he I think he’s going to win Travelers um but could this be an okay course for him yeah yeah he was eighth at the US Open last year at La Country Club I think a lot of people kind of forget that and I think that he was top 10 was he top 10 at the open the year before that I feel like he had a really good open yeah like was fourth he’s he’s popped up in some of the he was second he tied with Rah and straa and all those guys who ended up losing to Herman uh and then he was e of the US Open a year ago that I think this is actually one of the better US Open courses for him now that his like he was we talked about morawa being the best in the field off the tea in terms of driving accuracy you would expect Tom Kim to be top five and for whatever reason oh year he just hasn’t been that guy but he has started to turn back into that guy in his past two starts if the irons are truly back and he’s not just bleeding Strokes on the green anymore I mean it’s not like he’s a bad short game player he’s a good short game player that I if there’s one where he can seriously contend it really feels like it might be this one he’s a spike putter too people think he’s a bad putter because they see him Miss butt he’s not a bad putter he’s some weeks he’s the best putter in the world some weeks he’s the worst putter in the world which is kind of what you what you want when you’re betting on guys to win a golf tournament um it would be wild if Tom Kim goes and wins the US Open it would be awesome I would love it I mean I love Tom Kim H even if I don’t end up betting him I would be unless he’s going up head-to-head with Windam Clark um as you try to get sodomized um you know Tom Kim would be a very very happy winner for me yeah that’d be a double double for you uh if if both you and and I have to cut my testicles off be on live on the show too I assume oh of course I mean we’ll put up the explicit ranking here and you we’ll warn the viewers but that’s what’s going to happen M wo have we missed a guy uh the guy I really want to talk about that I’m sorry Walken didn’t make the field that is my boy that’s right no he didn’t but no I guess he has I guess he’s he’s maybe longer in the odds than this so I guess I’ll wait yeah minw Le is the next guy up he just he hasn’t brought it this year he just not been good um I got asked a question about betting him a couple weeks ago and I said since the first day of this season I’ve gone into each event telling myself he’s overrated and i’ and that’s kind fruition so far I’m like I’m not going to bet him because whatever his price he should be he’s usually like half that um because he’s such a fan favorite and for good reason he’s the man he’s he’s a great personality uh really he’s a long hits the long ball exciting player but I just think results wise he hasn’t really shown it so so uh I don’t know why he’d be 50 to1 that’s another one of those ones which I imagine will be 80 to 90 when the time comes but even so I would not be interested in it whatsoever like when he was getting away with it and having like he came fifth US Open a year ago how did he do it chipping and putting like he gained marginally if he can just marginally gain with his irons then he actually is a threat if he can Chip and Putt but the chipping and putting has just evaporated so far this year which he had for all of last year we know he’s going to drive the ball well he does that every single week he has gained more than two strokes on approach three times in like 50 PGA starts you just can’t win Majors having that type of iron play you just can’t I don’t care if it’s an iron course not an iron course you got to be able to hit Big Iron shots when you know when you’re trying to get in contention and he hasn’t shown us that he can do it so we spoke about this guy I think last time and whether or not he was a course fit for here siah to Gala has somehow morphed into Cam young over night that people are just I guess done with betting him I I like him I like a lot uh he’s been good in Majors if I if I had some room in my card he’d be somebody I would definitely consider uh he this feels like a great course for him he’s a he’s a shot maker he’s a creative player um he’s a good putter he can hit fairies especially when he dials it back he is I think awful awful around the green player like truly horrendous is he is he yeah he really is like he has worse numbers than Vic does from greens side like he makes bad sh like you remember the ones that he chips in and I think that’s kind of the reason that it gives you this weird illusion cuz he does seem to chip in a lot for a guy who’s really horrible I think he tries to make every shot and then therefore he makes some the other ones R like 30 feet off the green yeah so I guess look so looking at it now he has been the last seven or eight events he’s been horrific around the green but when he first came on tour that was one of his strengths when he won fortnet he gained over four uh around the green and he was G he was probably one of the best around the green players from last Year’s Open Championship all the way through the swing season um and then he was good then it’s been slowly declining and now it’s at an all-time low so I I don’t know what’s going on with that it’s really strange and maybe this is kind of the perfect course because the one place where he actually did gain Strokes albeit margle was at Heritage when he ended up coming in second and he is you know almost like we talked about with Jason day he’s sort of like the upside Jason day player it’s crazy that they’re the same betting odds at this point in time because you know seah’s probably going to drive it well have his few Wayward drives but somehow he’ll scramble to make power for there like whatever and the iron play could absolutely Spike like that goes in like in a sinus curve up and down every two weeks and I mean when he he putts great most of the time which is not something you can say about most players on the PGA tour yeah he’s definitely one of the best Putters on tour although last week um again he was a popular bad he was missing literally every three-foot putt but he seems like a big game player and that’s kind of why I wouldn’t want to rule him out is because he second in Heritage which was a bigger event this year t 12 of the PJ Championship API was T6 players was T9 he’s coming in the top 10 waste was fifth so in Sentry which is elevated he was second these big events he seems to show up and he was in what the second to last group at the PGA Championship he just had a bad Sunday yeah yeah he did um yeah I forgot T12 I mean and he was definitely involved I think he’s gonna be a big game player for the next decade and that was good for him I think to get that out of his system because we see this happen with guys that we want to be ahead schedule and sometimes those guys end up winning but that’s few and far between the vast majority of the time the first time someone gets into contention at a major with a legitimate chance to win he did have a legitimate chance to win he was two back going into Sunday they just absolutely [ __ ] all over the themselves so what are you GNA do building the scar tissue yeah you got you got to build that up it’s like you know losing in the Conference Finals or the second round when you’re the like like the Oklahoma City Thunder this year I bet you they’ll do better next year oh exactly absolutely like my Celtics last year there are they’re ready to win it now no they’re not they’re going to get Luca it’s gonna be hilarious I love Luca too but I mean obviously Rootin for the Sals Tony feno is up next I just don’t think he can make enough thts no next guy no I mean he uh he just has been infuriating this year um you know he’s he had a stretch where he was striking the ball like Scotty sheffler and he didn’t come in the top 30 somehow uh he’s just been completely horrible on the greens but even when he does figure out and putch well that’s the one day he’ll have a bad approach day or a bad off the tea day he just can’t put it all together um and he should have he should be having based on the way he’s hitting the ball so much of a better season than he’s having um he he did finish t18 at the PGA and he gained almost nine Strokes on approach like if you G Nine Str in approach you can’t come better than than 18th uh it just feels like you can’t put it together Hatton is up next he’s also in this betting range he’s 50 to1 and I’m again unless he does something over the weekend I’m guessing it’s going to be larger than that the approach play at the PGA Championship was legit bad it was okay round one then devastating to his overall results the next three rounds although he did make the cut there are very few us opens where I would like him at but this actually seems like one where he could do quite well this is the one I was waiting for that I thought was G to be in the 40 range um I I like him a lot I think this is a perfect I mean like a Marty K kimer he has kind of a similar skill set to him um really good putter he’s been good on these Bermuda Greens in this region he’s been great kind of the Heritage region um he yeah he wasn’t great at the PGA um bad on approach but gained off the te he’s been hitting Fairways more often he he used to have a kind of knack for spraying the ball he hasn’t been doing it as much on live he’s been getting better much better um T9 at the Masters we talked about that being kind of a comp how ground the green is gonna be so important and putting uh Adelaide was was 14 Singapore was T5 uh PJ Championship yeah is what is he’s never going to win on a you know it doesn’t feel like the right course for him especially at 18 under if it plays tough and it’s about grinding and making a par and getting up and down from creative places I feel like hatton’s a perfect guy for that yeah the the only thing I would watch out for unfortunately it seems to be baked into the price and I do think that he would dropped like 75 or 80 unless he ends up becoming one of the more popular bets in the early part of the week is that if he draws one of those unlucky lies he might just eject yeah yeah he definitely might but he’s been gaining Strokes I mean he’s been incredible off the te basically in every start even the PGA gained over four strokes off the T so that’s been pretty reliable for him DJ is up next can we just say no and move on yeah he’s done being a serious golfer in Majors is he just done I mean he won in Vegas in February that that seems like it was 18 years ago at this point it was four months ago he he was drilling putts that week um and that’s one that’s one thing I don’t love about I mean I don’t like 54 holes I’ve been saying that since day one I I actually hate it and I think one thing about it that I don’t love is like we saw it with Windam Clark you have that guy on Saturday he gains eight Strokes putting and ties a lead that guy’s never winning on Sunday it’s like Shane Lowry at the PJ Championship who who thought he had any chance to win he had none even though he was in the lead or tied for the lead or one back whatever it was that’s what kind of happened with with DJ it felt like um when he won in Vegas he was just drilling putts on Saturday and I felt like if it went one more round he wouldn’t be able to hang on because his just TD green game wasn’t isn’t what it usually is and he’s been embarrassingly bad in Majors right uh you know again for in terms of being fair you want to criticize guys like wam Clark who’s been bad in Majors Dustin Johnson’s been horrible in Majors uh up to his standard he’s one of the best major players of his generation definitely one of the best US Open players of his generation he should be a good fit for him but I just don’t know where his game’s at I don’t know what he’s doing um he’s been t-43 at the PJ and he came what he’s like plus 20 at the Masters like show me something first I’m really disappointed in in in the way he’s gone into his early 40s and because I thought he’s got a guy who could compete for a long time he seems to me like someone who would benefit from a PGA live merger yeah he like some guys are just on easy street over there and he’s he’s the main one who’s just like I’m good I did it I won I won life that’s the problem with people want to say you know the live schedule’s better than than the PJ tour schedule it’s better for the players they’re more rested still people who say they’re Rusty how can they get better if they’re not sharpening you know their skills every single week the truth is always somewhere in the middle there’s always a gray area and every person is unique and different and individual so what might be good for one person it might be terrible for somebody else and that’s exactly what we’re seeing I you I mean you can just point to even like Louie or burmaster I mean Louie especially that I just think he’s excelled since he went to live like that is the perfect schedule for him just every three weeks that’s good enough yeah like DJ thinks it’s a good schedule for him because that’s what he wants to do but it clearly isn’t in terms of his results um and even when he was in the mix last year like the PGA he was a first round leader uh or is the US Open one of the two but he was he was making a bunch of putts he still is a good putter when he’s hot still a streaky putter could he have a good round yeah I mean like I I wouldn’t be opposed to betting him a first round leader but I just think he can’t put four rounds together with a ball striking right now yeah I think there’s is around the green game while it still is somewhat at a high level that just you know a bad break or two and it could just go sideways on him really Qui which is you can make the case for anyone who could potentially do that it just I’m with you he just doesn’t seem to be a very serious guy in major championships right now how about Sam Burns I’m just waiting for him to do something in a major as far as Majors go I kind of like this one for a little bit um I like the region I like the fact that he’s putting on Fast Bermuda he’s really good on that uh I don’t think he can win but I do think he could he could be involved um yeah I’m I’m going back and forth in him but I do I do I can see an argument I don’t hate a Sam Burns bet at all he has missed the cut in what is this three consecutive majors t32 at the US Open a year ago miscut at the miscut at the PGA Championship so he’s missed in five of his past six Majors failed to make the weekend and yeah the approach play is back on the uptick I just I mean as someone who had money on him coming down the stretch at the American Express and just against a bunch of jobbers and he just completely folded coming down the stretch and even in Canada two weeks ago he ended up coming in 10th he had a really great week if he had just made half of the putts that weren’t even close on Sunday he would have been challenging Bobby Mack like that’s the guy that you should have been sweating but you didn’t have to because he couldn’t make a putt yeah I know I really when I was going into Sunday I was like I love to spot Bobby’s in four shots up do I feel perfect no but I the reason I was so confident is because I think the guy who’s going to chase him down is the other guy have Sam Burns and he just didn’t do it didn’t make a single putt um started missing Fairways he just yeah when he when he’s been getting in contention he’s been completely [ __ ] the bed so uh I do like the course for him but he’s shown in past Majors that he can’t be trusted so we’ll rapid fire through sort of the Wheelhouse range of these like 60 70 80s guys Shane Lowry is the first one up uh again every course on paper looks like it’s great for Shane Lowry until he doesn’t gain eight Strokes putting in one round and he ends up missing the cut because he can’t make a two-footer but other than that I know his around the green numbers have not been good lately but typically he is very creative around the green player like he these this is a perfect course for him to get it up and down and a low or sorry a high winning score I do think favors him a lot oh it definitely does because he doesn’t have to make a million putts um you know Miss the 10 foot of her bir and tap it in for par and he can do that and he’s hitting the ball pretty well uh but he’s not hitting as well as he was even with the fake PJ Championship uh finish he before that he was striping it and when he almost won um you know a couple events earlier this year Honda he was hitting it great hitting it great and now it seems to be going the other way so could he figure out the Putter and maybe get involved yeah I I guess um but it’s just how can you trust him I mean he he made it at the Canadian open last week he had a three-foot putt that didn’t come anywhere close to the hole I couldn’t even believe it when I saw it okay well another guy who sucks on the greens but has been excellent everywhere besides the PGA Championship weirdly enough to see who can’t again he’s going to hit every single Fairway we know that he can get like Rory esque with his irons he didn’t have it at the PGA Championship and even last week uh sorry he didn’t have the PGA Championship uh in terms of results but he still gained with his irons it was the only place where he did gain other than that you know 3.5 at Colonial and just had a terrible putting week he was 16th at the Wells Fargo he lost five Strokes putting he was 13th at Byron Nelson lost a stroke putting at the Heritage he’s losing putting at the Players he actually made some putts and came in six like he’s won a Players Championship he’s won in this region a bunch he’s actually playing Great Golf T green can we just get lucky with the putter with him uh probably not but it might be it might be worth a look anyway even if even if he doesn’t uh yeah see was the type of guy is he gonna go win a US Open I mean that I feel like you know looking at everything in a microscope he looks good but take a step back as see W himim gonna win the 2024 US Open that’d be pretty surprising see I yes it would be surprising but I think of guys in this range like how many PGA wins does he have now five that yeah when he gets hot it’s unlike there’s no other player of his skill set who gets as hot and has as high of an upside for like an 18-hole stretch as he seems to like he just becomes a top five player in the world for 13 holes in a row and you’re like what is going on here and even when he won the Players it was a very difficult Players Championship that year that really had to rely on his world class short game that like I said if you could just figure out how to just a little bit CU I don’t think that he’s going to put himself into too much trouble here yeah in his last 36 rounds he ranks 11th and Donald Ross designs so I think that’s a pretty good sign for him sunjay is up next I have no interest in sunjay people just keep trying to make sunjay happen dude dude doesn’t have to go to the military he doesn’t give a [ __ ] anymore no I do think it’s coming um he’s starting to play better it’s not going to be winning a US Open but like when we get to that stretch Travelers win I think he could be you know um back in the mix uh he actually in his last 36 he’s been doing some some pretty encouraging things um in terms of Strokes gained and and difficult firm and fast he is one of those players who could benefit from a lot of roll out on the fairways because he is a short hitter good putter um you know not he’s not there yet and I think his game overall is not there yet but I think he is trending in the right direction but yeah no for this week yeah and he has a pretty poor major track record outside of that one T2 at the Masters which was played in November the fake Masters yeah yeah fake fake news win what’s that no fans either a lot of reasons uh Russell Henley is actually the next guy up on the betting board and I mean I hope he wins this week because I bet him he’s currently 70 to1 for the US Open this is the type of player that I love here like he just kind of does everything well and hits every Fairway yeah we talked about that 2014 leaderboard I mean he’s feels like the exact guy that would be seventh on that leaderboard because um he fits he fits that and I guess he is more I guess the modern day version of that um he’s great on Donald Ross designs too uh fifth in Strokes gain total he and he’s he’s played well in Majors recently right even the long Majors that you wouldn’t think sued him he’s been good at so yeah I could definitely see him being one of those players in the mix does he have the balls to win a major no but could he be that you know spoiler the guy who’s in the last group with one of the studs absolutely Keegan Bradley is the next one up I bet Keegan Bradley in his past two starts uh he came second and he had a great week at the PGA Championship just couldn’t do anything with his putter couldn’t do anything with his irons at Colonial weirdly enough he was tied for fourth here 10 years ago I think his game is kind of right for us opens even at Brookline I know that was in the Northeast but he’s 100 to one right now seems like a good number and I bet you it gets bigger than that yeah especially if you’re doing the eway and all that uh there was one player in the field that um Bryson Des Shambo didn’t gain more Strokes than off the tea at the PJ championship and That Was Keegan Bradley gained was nine Strokes off the te uh which I don’t really know how how he could be that much better than some of these um big hitters but yeah he’s he’s playing incredibly well he uh is third in his last 36 rounds in Apex height on his shots so that’s something that we’re looking for that I think is is going to be important this week um he’s 29th on Strokes gain in very difficult courses uh he’s in everything I’m looking at he’s kind of in the top end I did a little mini model of everything like longterm uh Apex height the Donald Ross um The firmman Fast and the very difficult courses he’s 14th in that in that um little mini model so I do like him a lot who are the top players in Apex height just in this field for reference I know Gip didn’t get in he’s usually near the top yep he is he was near the near the top um first is uh Bryson second is Cam Davis that’s why I mentioned him earlier because the Apex height combined with the Donald Ross he’s second and fourth and those two things uh and then he obviously put on a show at the qualifier to get in uh he’s second Keegan is third um uh pendrith brory benan uh zalatoris young Mitchell Fowler minmo Burns Jagger Hatton Jagger is somewhat interesting but you mentioned benam we should probably talk about him I like benam a lot uh I don’t know I mean guy can’t close at the Sony Open or any tournament so I I don’t really know if he can close close this one out I did find it funny that his putting has actually been a lot better recently and somehow his short game has gone to [ __ ] which is odd considering he’s like a top five around the green player in the world over the past half decade just you know a bad stretch for him maybe he gets that back yeah and he is uh if you look at like a prototypical US Open skill set he feels like the perfect guy he absolutely pumps the ball I mean there when uh at Quail Hollow I was on him he finished third um you looked at it point they had always have those Graphics where the spots where everybody hits them there was like a bunch of little circles where 320 330 range and there was two spots at like 345 and that was Roy mroy and and benan uh he he hits the ball really far like he said good around the greens I when I interviewed him I talked to him about um this course for him and uh he said he thinks the more difficult the better uh he he’s looking forward to this event he think he’s the top 10 player in the world and I think skill-wise he definitely could be uh would it surprise me if he was in the mix with the way he’s he’s playing like one of the best players in the world this year on the PJ tour he’s playing great so take away the name and kind of the uh the connection we have to thinking that he is you know isn’t a closer which he hasn’t been um but you know skill-wise he he’s capable of contending in this event yeah and you know he is the 2009 US amateur Champion so he has woned a USGA setup before hopefully he wins Memorial this week and I have tons of money to waste at the US Open that would be very nice few more Billy horel yes or no no okay so no Billy horel how about Brian Herman this does feel like a good Harmon course doesn’t it yeah but I I don’t want to do that I’m not gonna do it and I don’t want to do it and I’ll be rooting against it happening but again we talked about that little spattered leaderboard I could see you know Harmon’s as being T6 and um you know kind of being in the mix somewhat he can putt his way uh he’s been good in this area’s from this area uh the short short off the is not going to hurt him it is a it is a good setup for him Cam Davis weirdly enough has some nice Saw Grass and Heritage results in his career it’s not the most consistent of these guys because he’s not consistent at all and one out of Donald roscor in Detroit too so very interesting with Cam Davis I wasn’t even considering him and the Apex height we talked about um I think maybe like a top 20 or something that might be the ceiling Cory Connors is the next one and there’s going to be a lot of Canadians in this field this is listen I I know that he’s one Valero twice at like crazy low scores but I you’d always think that if he was ever going to be in contention he would be at a place like this where if he could just fire like know one under over 72 holes that might be good enough and that could be good enough this week doesn’t he feel like one of those players like a almost like a duffner where like you wouldn’t be surprised with his at the end of his career if he won one I I completely agree like he just needs to get hot with a putter the the pro the drawback to Cory Connor is always that it’s not just the putter that needs to flip for him he also sucks around the green and you’re just not going to hit that many greens in regulation this week where that’s not going to come into play it’s sort of like the the minor case for Vic except Vic can Putt and he’s better than Cory Connors although approach wise he must be up there with sheffler over the past month yeah oh yeah he’s absolutely striping the ball over the last month and that’s why I bet him this week I think the memorial is probably a better setup I know he’s cussed now so probably not going to win but um I think Fairway green Fairway green if you can get away with doing that he can win and just be neutral or plus one on the greens’ be that’s enough um he where was he in the was he in the final few groups at a recent major or am I making that up uh at the PGA Championship last year at oakill and then he plugged his ball in the bunker yep that’s right that’s right um I mean his game is suited for Majors right he’s reliable reliable off the te reliable on approach and then see what happens with the putter I don’t love this one for him I think I’d like a a different kind of layout for him uh I’m out on Ricky any chance you’re in no no not at all okay how about the bista Mista Dean burer another guy who’s benefited greatly from being on live he’s an 80 to one Valhalla was really the perfect course for him I think in major championships and maybe a normal Us open this doesn’t feel like the spot for him totally agree um a lot of people liked him at the last one and I kind of poo pooed it so uh you know I was wrong on that one I didn’t think he was going to play great because you know the kind of the live energized fan bases excited with what he’s doing and they should be he’s playing some great stuff you know one twice on the DP World Tour uh this year and that PJ Championship performance was excellent I agree doesn’t feel like the right course typical US Open definitely if this is at Wing foot and you could see burm up there with wolf and Bryson I totally would get that doesn’t feel like the right spot at all Harris English is also lingering in that same territory just under 100 to one he’s actually at 80 right now he has not really been playing well at all but he just kind of showed up at us opens and this one plays more to his skill sets than most do so why not and it’s in the region he loves um you know it does feel like a Harris English type of course and he’s he feels like one of those randoms on the top 10 that we that we talked about earlier uh he fits that group of people I could see him playing well opened with a 69 here in 2014 end up coming t48 had a very poor round two and round three but just he strikes me just as a grinder type and this is going to be a grinding week that’s why I like Brooks in a weird way so much that if it like you really turn the screws to some of these guys Brooks is one of the few who just consistently holds up to that pressure maybe Harris English can too yeah I mean he wouldn’t shock me if he was like you know the winning DraftKings lineup he finishes T4 something like that yeah that that’s exactly what I’m thinking about him and the last guy I have on my list is Lucas Glover who is a former US Open winner and I think that people don’t realize how good TD green he is that he’s amongst the top players in the world r t green over the past 12 months it’s just dude can never putt I bet him at Colonial and he actually gained seven strokes putting and lost T green for the first time all year because of course that’s going to happen but his skill set is Fairways it’s great irons and he’s great around the green maybe luck into some pots again I’m probably not going to bet him to win but could he be the guy who’s T9 yeah I think that he can I agree this is his area of the country too I always look like to look at that um he’s had some great results kind of in this area the Carolina area uh and you know last year if he was still in that form he was in before people would be saying this is a perfect spot for him and it is I mean I I think looking at St Jude almost like not the longest course in the world you know where he won um playoff events he’s beaten these best players before so if you want to take a chance on somebody who you know has the balls to kind of go up there and do it he’s he’s one of them um the only other players that raid out really well in my early modeling and I mean this guy is he’s really the new Luke list because he just pops up every single week and then he misses all the putts and you’re like oh yeah of course Aaron Ry should be good here he should he definitely should uh he’s obviously a horrible horrible putter uh and he should have been good at the RBC Canadian everyone bet him that week and I I I understood why but he just doesn’t feel like a player who’s capable of kind of doing it at this on this stage um I I maybe a top 20 ceiling I see for him yeah other than that the other names that pop up inside the top 30 right now Alex noren Andrew putam I I even know if putting him’s in or not he’s just in here right now kittama uh rates out really well and that’s kind of it and Robert McIntyre and Davis Riley weirdly enough two of the past three winners on the PGA tour not shocking because it’s short-term model that the winners would be up there but I could see it with Davis Riley weirdly enough that he can get scorching hot with his putter the rest of the game is all over the place but if he comes in and good enough form and he starts making putts I can see it yeah yeah maybe um Alex noren is he kind of just done now I don’t think so I mean he cuss took him and took the wind out of his sails if he had a good Memorial that wouldn’t shock me what about dietre he’s been good on firman Fast yeah I like dri I bet you he pops up in that Apex height too dude hits the ball a mile under the sky yeah yep have him at like 13th yeah me he’s 11 firm and fast um is he in yeah he makes that he’s he’s in the model I have right now I don’t know if he’s in the PJ Championship field it says he’s in but it also has Neiman listed so I’m not 100% sure yeah I I think that he’s I think he’s high enough in the world rankings to get that done I could see D Tre doing well but again like you know if we’re going to scoff at certain guys not being able to close the door and not win like a Fleetwood or something like that I know the odds are going to be different but he’s like the most extreme version of that example yeah yeah definitely um just let’s see who else got got in I’m trying to think of people who qualified jakar is in uh not not to win or anything but I mean skill set wise he a typical US Open he’d probably be better for but he’s playing great says he’s healthy that’s why I bet him this week at 150 or whatever um malari got in yeah some interesting players down the bottom of the board yeah I think that we when I talk it through with Cambo on the draftking show that maybe we can scr up a couple of those because it’s all really going to depend on pricing like I I wouldn’t imagine Aaron Ry is going to be very expensive if they have guys in the $5,000 area on draftings he’ll be like 60 100 bucks yeah definitely and then I would take him because I think that’s a great value yeah um even Eduardo again I talked to him today he said he uh he’s his last three US Open starts he’s gotten progressively better and then at Tory Pines he was t35 and he said he’s feeling great uh and likes his golf course likes it playing difficult so maybe flat men maybe he can get you a top 25 where did he win I think he won the hisan 2 trophy like the one time I’ve ever bet on him I think that was the one in Morocco that he ended up winning it was like him and Connor sign like five years ago I remember that yeah yeah all right thank you for being on the show man this is a lot of fun oh I loved it it was it was great love talking it through um put some takes out there I hope I the testicle thing doesn’t get put on that clip that you do promote the show but oh sir you know the the the next time you come on the show and you’re known as the unic Matt vincenzi then you’re going to know why please Windom Clark don’t win I’m I’m GNA get he he makes one birdie on Thursday I’m going to get a million tweets about my testicles there you go the engagement that you want yeah there you go you know what I already have uh couple of young kids so I’m I don’t really need them much anymore anyway there you go yeah you can always take those testosterone boosters anyway just talk to guys who fight in the UFC who are like over 40 get Paul what’s it called the the trt get some of that trt for Life there you go you can get like super jacked at the same time you’re pretty jacked already you get some trt lose your balls get even bigger yeah you don’t again you don’t need them um and I can you can always get more Jack so I’m I’m down for that tell everyone where they can check out your content for the US Open because you’re going to have some of the best stuff out there and I want to make sure that people find it I appreciate that uh mateni PGA uh on X um I just recently made an Instagram that nobody follows and I don’t post on it if you want to check that out same name uh and then golf WX is where I write all my stuff and the golf WX YouTube is where um my kind of recent interview series is has been published too had three or four or five of those in the last month or two that have gone really well so keep a lookout for those as well all right you can follow me at thepme reminder to get yourself into those giveaway draws I mean 50 Grand could be up for grab so you probably want to get in that one but for the US Open specifically from me fantasy National memberships 500 bucks cash maybe some Underdog bucks coming the thing that you can do to help out this show the most use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now get a deposit match of up to 250 bucks or deposit bonus sorry not a match a bonus of up to 250 bucks but hell just [ __ ] throw 10 bucks in there and you’ll be good to go uh and maybe we have a special announcement coming still waiting on that like I mentioned but hopefully that is something I can announce on Monday with fineberg and cus and then rate review And subscribe to the pat Mayo experience audio podcast on Apple that’ll get you ballots on Spotify that’ll get you ballots all right big week big week of shows coming for you I’ll be back tomorrow with Keith Stewart until then I’m Pat mail I’ll see you next time pat experience you do look like Devon from The Challenge dead you might be I mean he’s a he’s a Boston guy as well like that might be you I don’t even know what the challenge is but I’m gonna go look that up yeah it’s I heard you talk about it before he he’s I I think that Devon’s even into like I think he’s sponsored by B MGM and does a betting show now does he I think so yeah he also he also he also has an only fans where he’s like [ __ ] out I’m I I might have to charge if I do the testical thing it’d be a big thing to do for free so maybe I’ll do an only fans for that experience
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Show Index
00:00 Intro
00:44 Giveaways
3:42 Winning Score
5:07 Course/Skill Set
10:21 Scottie Scheffler
12:54 Rory McIlroy
19:07 Xander Schauffele
21:55 Jon Rahm
25:27 Viktor Hovland
29:42 2014 Leaderboard
32:13 Bryson DeChambeau
36:16 Collin Morikawa
38:24 Ludvig Aberg
40:16 Brooks Koepka
43:47 Max Homa
46:18 Patrick Cantlay
48:11 Cam Smith
51:04 Justin Thomas
55:37 Will Zalatoris
57:58 Wyndham Clark
1:01:30 Jordan Spieth
1:02:14 Matt Fitzpatrick
1:03:20 Tommy Fleetwood
1:05:30 Hideki Matsuyama
1:07:47 Cameron Young
1:09:25 Jason Day
1:11:18 Tom Kim
1:13:37 Min Woo Lee
1:15:22 Sahith Theegala
1:18:45 Tony Finau
1:1928 Tyrrell Hatton
1:21:15 Dustin Johnson
1:24:13 Sam Burns
1:25:50 Shane Lowry
1:26:56 Si Woo Kim
1:28:48 Sungjae Im
1:29:47 Russell Henley
1:30:34 Keegan Bradley
1:32:27 Ben An
1:34:11 Billy Horschel/Brian Harman/Cam Davis
1:35:03 Corey Conners
1:36:32 Rickie Fowler
1:36:40 Dean Burmester
1:37:23 Harris English
1:38:26 Lucas Glover
1:39:26 Aaron Rai
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