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what is up everybody and welcome back to another edition of the DFS model breakdown we’re here to talk about the RBC Canadian open so let’s get right into it uh decent field for the Canadian open it’s more topheavy than anything but we got some big names in the field it’s going to be played at Hamilton Golf and Country Club located in Ontario Canada now this event uh changes venues each and every year so it hasn’t been held at this course since 2019 when Rory mroy won before that hadn’t been held here since 2012 um in terms of difficulty in those years 21st and 32nd so not too easy not too difficult uh the course has gone through some Renovations since then it’s been lengthened a little bit uh all of the greens were rebuilt all the bunkers were rebuilt the greens are now pure Bank Grass rather than a mix of Banton POA um so there are some small changes I think it’s going to play pretty similar to the last time we’ve seen it a lot of the golfers have described this as more of a positional course off the te um so I’m looking more at total driving than you know distance maybe just Strokes can get off the te I do think you know there will be some Less in driver holes the average driving distance here in 2019 was only 280 yards um and the Fairway is pretty narrow 30 yards wide um the greens here even though this was a pretty easy course uh the greens only hit in regulation 62% of the time in 2019 so I do think scrambling is going to come into play this week even if uh the course isn’t overly difficult it does look like there’s going to be some very good weather on tap this week um Friday Saturday Sunday 10 miles per hour is pretty much the worst wind that we’re going to see uh and that’s you know gust not just sustained winds so it’s hard to know you know the perfect type of golfer but I think everyone’s in play this week I think it’s more of a second shot and in type of course uh birdier better percentage total driving strok gain approach we should see a pretty equal distribution in terms of approach shots so I was looking at the what happened in 2019 and you know Bucket from of 25 yards had you know something in the teens so you’re going to see a lot of 100 to 125 125 to 150 150 to 175 a nice mix of approach shot distributions or approach shot lengths and that should just about do it for the course there are 156 golfers in the field so really large field and we should see fairly low 66 percentage unless the chalk um just absolutely smashes now in terms of the stats that I’m looking at this week again pretty small weights to off the te um and then approach I got it at 16% of the total model which is a lot for sure um the expected is based on data golf’s um approach shot projections and then I take that and compare those to the actual Strokes gain from those different approach buckets um so it kind of gives us an idea of who should uh gain the most Strokes on approach Cory Connor number one Rory 2 Tom Kim three Shane Lowry four and cam young five SCH G around the green I have it at 5% I don’t mind bumping this up a little bit um putting with an emphasis on bent grass and then we have birdier better and bogy avoidance course history I have it at 2% you can just go ahead and put this at 0 perc if you uh don’t you know think that there’s any Merit to it I really don’t but I put it at 2% just just to have it in there a little bit um just to reward those guys that did play here you know in 2012 and 2019 um course fit I have a 2% short par 70s so those are guys that have played the best on short par 70s over the last two years Rory Eric Cole Charlie Hoffman which is a very interesting name Shane Lowry and chz reevy then you have your form um which is broken up this is just uh to view how often golfers are playing and how well they’ve been playing and then these are the actual ways to go into the model so short terms broken up into the last 24 rounds or the last three months whichever comes first midterms the last 50 or last six months and then long terms last 18 months or 100 rounds whichever comes first so as always you can make adjust m to the model here so if a guys that you like isn’t rating out as well as you know you want it to when you’re uploading these ratings into lineup HQ on rotal Grinders then you can go ahead and manually bump guys up which is nice so somebody like Daniel burger that I like this week he doesn’t necessarily project all that well um if you go down here he is yeah 22nd overall so if I run lineup HQ I’ll probably get a little bit of them in my mme builds but I want you know more than that so I would either go into lineup HQ you bump up the minimum percentage or you know just give him a manual boost here maybe an 8% boost or maybe a 5% boost then all of a sudden he’s up to 17 you know plus four in the ranks and then his point per dollar rating is a little bit better as well so let’s start at the top we’ll talk through some of the player pool and then we will get out of here as always we’d love to have you join RG premium if you would like to uh a lot of good content including this model you can download it you can customize it the expert survey the gpp article My corls article the ownership projections lineup HQ the optimizer all that stuff comes with RG premium uh and if not thanks for watching these videos hit the Thumbs Up Button appreciate it um leave a comment if you want I’ll try to get to those uh whenever I can and uh join RG Discord a lot of fun in there um just talking Golf and sweating lineups together okay at the very top you have Rory maoy tough decision for me this week he’s kind of getting the Scotty Sheffer treatment in terms of the price the odds the ownership I don’t think he has as high of a floor as Scotty Sheffer does he’s actually finished outside of the top 20 in six of his last 10 starts um but I mean he’s he’s obviously won here before he’s a great play I just worry about the ownership maybe this number comes down by the time lineups lock but I don’t necessarily love the 6ks um and I really like the 9ks so I’m kind of leaning towards a balance build and single entry and then I’m probably going to be underweight on the field um when it comes to Rory and mme but we’ll see how that works out um noren is number two in the model who is my favorite play of the week 17 straight made Cuts eight straight top 30 finishes he’s gaining Strokes in all fastes I really think Edwin is gonna come soon if he continues to play this well I actually bet him outright this week and when I was writing him up I was looking at his you know DP World World Tour stuff he’s won 10 times on the DB World Tour it’s time for him to get his first PJ tour win especially with how well he has been playing igala again I don’t know what courses are best for igala he just seems to you know randomly for top 10 finishes don’t have anything against him here but don’t necessarily love the price point I do like Tommy flew would nearly won this event last year lost to Nick Taylor in that playoff this that was a different course obviously but he’s one of those guys that tends to play the shorter course as well you know really good Scrambler really good iron player hits a lot of Fairways so I he’s probably my second favorite play Above 10K and then Lowry coming off of the T6 I think that is gonna you know get people to click his name but if you look at the stats he gained over nine Strokes putting and the ball just wasn’t very good and if you look at his numbers he is not a good putter so I wouldn’t necessarily expect that to happen again although he did finished second here in 2019 that’s that’s just going to make his ownership even higher so that worries me a little bit uh Cy Connor 9500 great play um my favorite Canadian for the Canadian open um he’s been awesome recently he’s gained 9.7 and 9.5 strokes this will say ball striking he has not gained that much that many strokes putting um I will clicks that when I upload the the model and then we have Cam young young at 30% man he just hasn’t been great I mean he’ll pop here and there I do like his upside I think he can definitely win this week but I don’t necessarily think it’s the best course fit for him where you take driver out of his hands I love Adam Scott so he’s had top 30 finishes and eight of his last 11 starts similar to noren he’s gaining Strokes in all facets he just needs to put it all together and I think he can contend Aaron Ry projects really well for me OA projects well but he does worry me um the driver’s gone you know little little off the off the Mark I would say the last few weeks and Miss back toback Cuts so after his win his form has kind of telled off a little bit Thompson’s been playing well I think he makes a lot of sense hover anytime you get him on these shorter courses I think he makes some sense he’s made 14 straight cuts so if you’re looking for a safe guy in the sevens he’s one of my favorites um Maverick M bet him outright this week so he’s been very consistent this season a lot of top 40 finishes the upside just hasn’t been there because the irons haven’t been very good but three of the last four starts he’s gained at least one stroke putting or sorry at least 1.6 Strokes on approach so I do think he is viable this week not a ton of interest in Burns Keith Mitchell was looking at this today he’s gained Strokes off the T intense straight he’s gain Strokes on approach and 10 straight and the short game is just a disaster so if you do think short game matters this week uh that do that does worry me for Keith Mitchell Tom Cam’s been playing a little bit better but I mean the irons just still aren’t what they were um a couple years ago so don’t have a ton of interest there Kim’s kind of falling off a little bit but he does project well I do like Ben Griffin so he missed a cut on the number last week he uh was in pretty good form before that he’s one of those guys that plays these shorter courses a lot better than the longer ones um Hughes I’m gonna have some Hughes in tournaments he can just pop with the short game EVR no strong take there I do like Burger quite a bit um playing a little bit better four straight made Cuts if you look at his ball striking numbers he’s gained 4.7 and 3.4 Strokes ball striking over the last two events so that’s kind of trending up long term I mean you know excellent on par 70s um MC misner I’m not sure if I’m saying that correctly but the model loved him last week I didn’t listen to the model he finished T5 could have really used that in my builds um look at the stats I mean total driving is not great but good on approach good around the green good putting you know I mentioned this is the second shot in in type of course so I do think he makes some sense at 6500 MD hoard’s got the talent um the form hasn’t been there but if you look at the talent in the lower sevens he’s definitely you know one of the top guys there looking at Nate Lasher I mean he has missed seven of his last 10 cuts but I believe five or six of them have been on the number so he’s just very close and when he does make the cut he tends to post a lot of top 20 finishes one of my favorite value plays of the week I’ll have some Sig see if there’s anyone I’ll have some Justin lower he’s kind of you know been playing well rattled off four top 30s in his last five starts you know hadwin just feels overpriced he did play well here the last time I was played here he is Canadian he’s got that angle going for him but 8,51 12% just feels a little too high for me let’s go ahead and sort by the rating per dollar columns for each shite then we’ll get out of here so again Lashley misner Bryce Garnett uh he picked up a win earlier I think it was at the Puerto Rico um yeah gained 7.9 stroke TD green at the PJ Championship so a guy you might want to look at at 6 100 but again if you’re not playing Rory you probably don’t need to go down into the sixes if you start with you know Connor noren Adam Scott you don’t really need to dip down that low and check out FanDuel real quick see if there’s anybody that stands out over there get Orin a little bit cheaper over there relative to his fand or his DraftKings price hubard Thompson Ry gim yeah we’ve talked about all of them so if you have any questions leave them in the comments I will Circle back on Wednesday and try to get to those and uh yeah I’m out of here best luck at the RBC Canadian open we’ll see you back next week for the Memorial tournament which is always one of my favorites good luck everybody
