Outdue the books & top the leaderboards in Dublin, Ohio, with our PGA DFS preview & best bets for the 2024 Memorial Tournament!
Can Ludvig Aberg (22-1) make the most of the Muirfield Village Golf Club, or will Scottie Scheffler (3.5-1) continue his historic run?
PGA Tour analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer cover course notes, core plays, outrights, props & more for PGA Tour’s next elevated event on “The 19th Hole (S4 E22).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:50 2024 RBC Canadian Open Reaction
05:03 What Are We Drinking?
10:19 Caddie Notes: Muirfield Village Golf Club Breakdown
17:41 Club Twirls: 2024 Memorial Tournament Best Bets
39:58 No Trunk Slams: 2024 Memorial Tournament PGA DFS Core Plays & Fades
56:20 Final Picks + The Hat Pick
57:48 Plugs & Outro
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🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime)
good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the 19th hole we are live on in between media make sure you like this video subscribe to the whole damn Channel and jingle that Bell for notifications we have reached a really nice tough two week stretch on the PGA tour calendar this week we have the Memorial tournament at Jack’s Place mirfield Village in Dublin Ohio Io Io this is a brutally Tough Golf Course if you’re not on your game but it does give you chances if you’re on your game we’re going to see some Carnage we’re going to see some good scoring we’re going to see the best in the world duke it out on a great Golf Course designed and curated by the Golden Bear himself let’s not look too close at next week Pinehurst number two for the US Open on I know it’s a exciting but we must refrain with a little pitter patter let’s get at her [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] welcome to the damn show everybody we got [ __ ] to do Connor coplin’s right there I of course and Bic prer we got the memorial Connor how you feeling buddy good man I’m ready to get get in the wind column it’s been a tough couple weeks it’s been a uh what how do you spell drought in Old English draft it’s been a dra yeah yeah last well last week was early it was over early which kind of put you out of your misery I ended up with a six for six lineup and with your three for six lineup it was it was all sewed up by Friday evening I didn’t send any trash talk to my credit I’m usually a really big trash talker even if it’s really close and I can I know it’s going to go either way and for some reason I refrained from doing that because I remember last time I did that it started a really long winning streak for you last year uh so let’s keep the karma positive here I don’t need any help losing to you in the future yeah I you know and the funny thing is is that for two weeks in a row I’ve had these lineups going in where I’m like man I’m stacked so good so all the guys I want like and then you get these performance from like theala I was like oh this is so good you had me convinced on theala so much so that he cost me like 500 bucks dick and then why you have to talk me into that because I was steadfast had him as a huge fade in DFS because he was chalky I didn’t think he’d be good off the tea he was awful off the tea which I mean and but he was part of a top 10tp 20 parlay Underdog then guess who the only person who didn’t fall in the top 10 or top 20 was yeah guess guess who else had one of those on Underdog who also had the same fate although the Canadian open was fruitful for me I had four guys in the top 10 and I ended up cashing a top 20 parlay with Bobby Mack himself shout out to Robert McIntyre and his dad douge he’s a grass cutter from obon Scotland the secred ground I mean how about douge and Robert going around that course like Masters like Bobby Mack’s hot right now and he cash the top 20 parlay with him and our guy Chandler Phillips it was just I Mack was 80 to1 overall so I think he was plus 400 plus 450 to hit top 20 by himself Chandler Phillips plus 600 for top 20 I just matched them both up I thought Bobby Mack obviously was the safer Choice that’s my get in but if I was right about Phillips that was a cash and it was plus 1,200 that was a big win for me and then all those top 10 placements even if some of them Chopped with the tie uh it was nice it was it was a really nice profitable week even though I didn’t have an outright bet on the guy who won the thing well I’m glad that you had a nice week that’s it was stupendous I swept all the DFS tournaments I had all the best lineups had all the winning bets Connor you gotta join me it’s fun when you win I have no words for you today sir I saved all the trash talk for after it was official it’s uh yeah I mean it’s it’s not a fun place to be and unrelated unrelated how what are you [Music] drinking just a side note sidebar I’m into the Irish tonight tealing all right so you’re so anti Scott that you went Irish I mean I don’t know that I’d say I’m anti Scott as much as I’m fully Irish this week yeah okay that’s fine oh we got a Facebook from Austin David Victor is going back to back I I don’t don’t hate that pick we’re going to talk about that for sure because Victor hin he I think he woke up getting coach Mayo back it’s a it’s a good start we we’ll say that shout out to our guy Calgary Alberta Royal Slade in the house and of course we have ostradamus joining us we are far from gentlemen yeah so I guess jent is okay it’s fine it’s not accurate but it’s it’s nice thanks for the honor ostradamus you uh dents dents dents yeah degenerate well done sir I couldn’t have spit that out I don’t think um we have my drink of choice little backstory I probably won’t ever leave Northern California and what it’s hard to believe news flash buddy news flash buddy I love Northern California despite outof control cost of living it is just untenable cost of living here it’s disgusting today it’s 103 degrees with a 30 m hour hot North dry wind and it’s literally a blow dryer in the face when you’re outside terrible it’s like basically Las Vegas however I was at the grocery store a couple weeks ago buying stuff for cooking you know that’s what I do and I heard this voice from my peripherals very nice friendly voice and it was a woman saying sir would you like to try some Bourbon and I said who’s that God and it was this young lady who was sampling a new bourbon that is is kind of new on the scene they are from Bardstown Kentucky it’s ammunition Distillery and they have a bourbon out that is a straight bourbon whiskey finished in Cabernet svon Barrels in here in Sonoma up in NorCal just over here knocking my mic over that’s fine so I tried this whiskey it’s only $39.99 for a bottle I was like that’s a good deal and she’s she asked me a couple questions of course she’s she’s trying to sell the whiskey but she also wants me to try and give her notes I gave her the most detailed notes that she’s ever heard about this one sip of whiskey that I got I did the Kentucky chew I did the whole nine just purely because I’m a snobby little turd but I was going to say meanwhile you had a line of people behind you like look at this no I did not that was the best part is I’m in a grocery Store in Northern California and not only can I sample bourbon she didn’t even card me which kind of insulting I I forget her name but she didn’t even card me which she was supposed to she was supposed to card me for this and I tried the bourbon I switched it around chewed it up really good for a $40 bottle I told her that this would probably end up being a $50 or $60 bottle because of with it was just good so I bought the bottle she talked me into it really hard sell $ 39.99 I’m breaking it open right here on the show shout out NorCal oh you want me to put that one back up I can do that look at boom yeah aeramas it’s my guy you see a royal finally hit 70 degrees in Canada yeah it got down to 70 last [Laughter] night oh we got ourselves a first Glen Karen pore this is a little bit more of a pore than I got at the grocery store let’s just say that yeah and that was probably in a Dixie cup it was in one of those little thimble plastic cups but it was compostable because you know that’s why we roll here I mean it’s California we don’t do paper straws anymore thank God ours are ours are like the microfiber plastic straws but they break down they don’t they’ll kill the sea turtles and stuff just as I remember it’s so delicious for $40 get yourself some ammunition bourbon yeah remember when we did a a series for a while where it was like the best bottle we could find under like 40 bucks oh this is on the list for sure yeah that was I I never even heard of it until I got the sample we might have to might have to fire that back up there’s a lot of unsung heroes of the B whiskey and bourbon world for sure especially these days there will be no but she has some sweet ass DFS picks for the memorial yeah there won’t even be that for me just total Consciousness on my deathbed gunga llama gunga gonga big hitter the llama he was going to stiff me I got that going for me Cinderella boy all right let’s let’s move on we got [ __ ] to do uh you ready for the caddy notes after the drop Connor I can hardly wait Jack’s Place it’s time to get it right [Music] all right so all I know about this place is it’s tough if you suck it’s good if you’re good and Jack is the boss the Golden Bear Dublin Ohio mirfield Village named it after his first major win at Mir fil over there in Scotland the sacred ground I still I still like that accent better than most of yours you break it out every now and then well I mean it’s it’s in my blood you’re like 80% of every popul or every ethnicity on the planet I swear to God I I have so much mut going on here that yeah you’re probably right that is a jam I’m just saying that our our little our little Segway Costco tequila yes there’s an unsung hero there there’s actually so many more varieties now of Costco tequila Kirkland’s got like five different tequila varieties out right now ranging from your simple giganto 1.75 liter handle of the silver VOD or silver tequila all the way up to the really nice age Dono we got we got variety I believe our Cinco Deo show you were drinking the blanco making it was yeah that bottle is John you don’t say I mix I mix all my margaritas with the silver because it’s it’s like $17 for a handle our fearless leader has arrived thumbs up this one and that one log into your housekeepers account if you have one uh if you have a separate Google account that you use as a burner for social media log in with to YouTube with that like it with that subscribe to this Channel with all your accounts even the ones you don’t want your family to know about we care about subscriptions we got some good football shorts some good NASCAR shorts a whole bunch of content last week so go check out they’re called trousers in most of the world I don’t I see cargo trousers we have cargo trousers all right let’s get into it Memorial Tournament presented by workday mirfield Village um Dublin Ohio it is a power 72 7569 yards bent Fairways bent greens got kind of a rough overseed with some blue grass uh signature event with 70 players top 50 in ties will make the weekend uh Mir mirfield is super difficult uh plays as one of the top five toughest courses on tour uh year on year uh Demands a ton of accuracy both off the te and on approach uh Fairways are once again treelined um they are a smidge wider than some of the previous weeks however there’s been some Renovations here to give a few more like narrowing corridor as you get uh farther distance so this here’s what they did pinch points pinch points at 320 yards they pinch how do I pinch your head from here like a grape um so uh yeah they’re uh they’re definitely a little wider still but they have been tapered in quite a bit bunkers have been moved uh to force some layups uh speaking of bunkers I think there’s 70 plus in play still here so they’re everywhere uh the rough is actually some of the deepest and most penalizing that any that they’re going to see deep is it’s deep deep again so many things I want to say to you um it’s deeper than anything they’re going to see outside of Majors uh really and and that’s pretty much typical every single year uh greens are super small again surrounded by bunkers um I think we’re dealing with sub 5,000 square feet as the average complex STM is 14 lightning quick however some Reports say that some of this grass and some of the um renovations to the greens have kind of mellowed out a little bit and so quite as I don’t believe it um around the green and scrambling is uh super important this week they’re going to miss the greens they’re going to be in bunkers so you need guys that are um accurate but also possess skills to get up and down um and on top of all of this fun water is in play on 70% of the holes so um that’s a lot that’s a lot pretty much everywhere you look there’s a a good chance you can get yourself in some trouble here here’s how you win Jack’s tournament you have to play really good golf for 72 holes and you have to be really good at all parts of golf yeah you if you have anything that’s kind of right now you’re gonna get exposed this week the only thing the only thing I would say to that is one of the Lesser Coral Aries is actually putting here which I was kind of surprised given how difficult the greens are so if you’re going to gamble on not the complete package it’s probably putting is what I would SA rice as I’m looking at a player profile but even that you want guys that are at least flat yeah and I I put it in my model so I did it bent grass specific Lightning Fast specific just so I could narrow it down a little bit cuz some of these guys putt really well on bent and some guys have no clue what they’re doing on bent grass and it is a it’s a unique surface it really is uh for putting you’re going to get a lot of true putts that go exactly where they’re supposed to do you’re not going to see any bumps like on poana or Bermuda you’re going to see the truest Rolling Greens but if you were off by a smidge on your read or off the pace or if you just don’t strike it in the middle of the putter face you are absolutely screwed on these greens because they are fast and they will give you fits and I love that there’s Carnage this week however this course does allow for some scoring and I noticed you said you didn’t mention par five scoring which was extremely heavily weighted in my model because there’s only like four or five scoring holes and all of them are par fivs yeah it’s definitely in my model as well the interesting thing about the par five scoring though is that they’re also the least um the least birdie percentage on the of the par FES in play was 25% of the field last season so it’s not easy it’s it’s not easy but I will say this when you look at a field of 70 people 25% of that field is is birdie or bettering the par FS one of them goes all the way up to 40% birdie rate so so I think that they’re getable I par five scoring is definitely in my model um but it it’s definitely not as heavily weighted as like the overall T to green and some of the approach metrics and scrambling and bogey avoidance yep 100 per. all right well with all that being said we got a bet on this thing you would think so but I don’t think so Steve and I might be a little more aligned than you and I cuz uh I’m a little bit of Team sort of no putut this week well I have I have a response for that but it’ll come after this wonderful drop with Brad Chad and Thad let’s go [Music] all right let’s get this right out of the way betting favorite is some guy named Scott Sheffer her’s good plus 360 by most books we’re using draftking sports book because it’s right there in front of my face and um not a sponsor yet sh have your people call our people DraftKings just saying um we take a couple of promo codes for our use too because I’m uh I need some money back I’m actually completely out on Scotty this week is that is that stupid I don’t know if I’d say it’s stupid on the betting side I think it’s stupid on the DFS side oh for sure yeah I’m not full fting Scotty in DFS he averages 112 fantasy points a week I think the scary thing about Scotty is just some of the the kind of sporadic playoff to from time to time especially getting out in that 290 310 range on a lot of these holes and then you look at his overall proximity stats from 175 to 200 plus and it’s like his weakest approach distance so yep I like I said I betting him especially at that number absolutely not but and that’s the thing is I’m not saying that Scotty schiffler can’t win this tournament he absolutely can bet betting him at his current number is just dumb and even the live bet strategy that we’ve carried most of the Season it doesn’t really pan out for me here because he ranks 12th in my model and there’s a lot of other front runner guyses with short odds that are way above him in all these stats I’m looking at when you measure for longer golf courses especially with Bentgrass greens especially when the penalty for missing the Fairway is so drastic here uh Scotty sheffer’s off the T game has been a little squirly I think he’s 33rd in this field of 73 in Strokes gained off the te in in these in this parameters that I ran it for which are exact parameters what we’re dealing with this week uh Scotty Sheffer for me can absolutely win this tournament I’ll tip my cap to him just say dude’s dude’s one of the goats already it’s it’s insane but for my money I’m betting on a guy at the top here who has has everything in in the back yes how did you how did you know that I was going to talk about Rory Mao from Hollywood Northern Ireland next because I absolutely adore him this week as well oh but I thought we were going to disagree a [Laughter] bunch so Rory at nine to one in this field I have no clue how anybody’s betting a lot of long shots this week because I don’t think any of them have a prayer in this in this format this golf course with this strong of a field at the top I don’t think anybody outside of 100 to one is going to make the top 20 in this tour tournament I really don’t no and historically when you look at it it’s guys I mean it it this is more of a cream of the crop type of tournament it sure is it and it’s it’s loaded at the top and you look at even like the runner ups and the playoffs and everything it’s it’s always like bigname dudes this is probably not going to be one of those I know we’re kind of in Long Shot season but I tiger one here five times I’m with you I just don’t see it Klay is getting a soft line I like his line even though he’s playing terribly this year he’s won here twice he’s been in contention here just about every year but Rory for me is just so hot right now and his Advantage off the te here with distance and accuracy with how good he’s been on Mid to Long approach this year and his putting and chipping have been immaculate this guy’s scrambling game is second in this field that’s going to be huge here is Rory isn’t going to hit all those greens but he’s going to get more birdie opportunities than the rest of the field because of his T to Green game but if he’s off the green he’s been nails at saving par scrambling getting up and down making tough pars That’s The Unsung part of his game this year that’s caused him to be so successful at least the last month I think Rory blows this field away uh as as long as he gets off to a decent start on Thursday I think Rory laps the field here 100% on board with you I wrote him up as my favorite bet of the week too and you’re so smart Conor every now and then uh I let you lead in because people that watch this show know that I’m I’m I mean I’m a huge huge fan of Rory so sometimes it comes off being a little biased you know I never even realized that until you just said it but but realistically like when you look at what he’s done over the last 24 not to mention that he’s got a win um he’s number three in the field from the longer proximity distances like you hit on he’s also in the top 10 for literally every other scoring metric I looked at he’s number one in this field from overall to Green which is the highest correlated stat to successive field it seems good it’s not bad and then uh the other the only concern I have with him is that he’s not great out of the sand he Rate rates out 46 in sand save percentage over the last 24 rounds so your hope is that when he misses he’s missing into some of the runoff into the rough you you really don’t want Rory having to hit a whole lot of sand shots especially side especially not here green side rather yeah so all right who’s your next guy in uh my next one is uh Justin Thomas oh wow you dropped down I’m gonna throw out another Victor hin reference defending champ of this event I know a lot of people are going to agree with me here I don’t care it’s it’s not a contrarian pick but 18 to1 for a guy who just got into a Groove at the last major the PJ Championship we saw Victor hland back on his Prime te to Green form this guy is nails when he’s on and he’s locked in coach Mayo’s back and on the payroll and we’re talking about a guy who is just as good as Rory and all those guys when he’s cooking we saw that last year in the FedEx Cup he crushed everybody when he was on his game and that’s the version of Victor that I saw at the PGA a couple weeks ago I think 18 to1 is a misprice and another misprice and a guy that’s a horse for this course Patrick 25 to1 it’s again I don’t love can’t lay this year because he’s playing so poorly but that allaround game that you need to play well here has been Patrick hlay even when he’s scuffled in years past he’s come to mirfield Village and played well because he’s just doesn’t have any weak spots in this game he’s a Alexander they’re their best buds they’re really boring but they’re good at everything and I I think 25 to one’s just way too long for a guy of that caliber Victor yeah um yeah I mean here’s my thing with Victor I I think he’s going to show up and play well this week I like I like the way he’s the defending Champion Conor yeah but the concern I’ve got for him is is that there is a lot of up and down to be had here and this season in particular like he’s reverted back to he’s like 60th or worse in every around the green and scrambling stat and now I granted I know I know we got we got the Old Coach back with him little more short game focused but I need to give that a week or two I think before I’m throwing outright bets around atck and so I I’ll I’ll gladly be out on the outright um and Klay is kind of a similar situation to be honest like if you look at if you look at the accuracy metrics over the last 24 rounds he’s just all over the place and so hot and cold he’s been really good and then really bad and then really good and then really bad and yeah I just I can’t I can’t get there with those two I understand horse for the course mentality I get it but and softt do Conor that’s what I’m getting at here smart gambling smart gambling H I don’t know if 18 to1 is truly soft for Victor given what he’s been doing incredibly soft I don’t know man I I’m just we’re probably not gonna see eye to eye on those two I think of course JT is at 30 is that where he’s at yeah JT is at 30 and what’s interesting about JT is you know how high I was on JT coming into the season like Snoop Dog High yeah like like Whiz Khalifa High yeah like like a this rant is too damn high like a concert at Red Rocks um so so true but what’s crazy is um he’s actually bringing it together uh if you look at the last three tournaments uh fifth at RBC Heritage 21st at Wells Fargo eth at PGA Championship and then you look at his statistics on what he was able to do at those tournaments it the PGA Championship he gained 13.6 Strokes te to Green yeah and if he hadn’t lost three and a half Strokes putting he would have run away with the PGA Championship his putting was good it just didn’t make anything they everything burned the edge so you knew he was close uh number two in my model Justin Thomas 5.2 Strokes gained around the green at the PGA Championship also number one in birdies are better gain number two from T to Green number four in driving distance JT’s got some pop number six in the Pro the bag this week too number three around the green yeah he’s got the package number number one I’m not even betting but he’s a DFS guy for me another horse for the cor I don’t really want to talk about him here though so tease that um fire up Jordan spe I’m saying that with a low voice because Jordan spe is is exactly what it takes to grind it out and been better on approach than than when he started the season and off the te he’s 34th which I thought he’d be much worse me too I thought it’ be 55th or 65th but 34th so middle of the pack off the te not terrible uh outstanding birdie maker outstanding and avoiding bogey the best scrambler on the planet um Jordan spe for me is a big sleeper at his odds 50 to1 for Jordan Speed 50 to1 is that one got my eyebrow one eyebrow way up here like like like like when a puppy [ __ ] his head cuz he’s a little bit confused 50 to one for that guy God love you good luck yeah I I knew you’re out on Jordan no I like Burns at 45 I like norin at 50 and I’m in love with SEIU Kim at 50 I I figured that was gonna happen I’m I’m hit I’m up or down on SEIU he’s been consistent this year which is not his usual emo but he hasn’t really does he have any top 10 this year sewo yeah would you like to hear about seiw tell me I I gotta know why you’re so high on SEIU when he’s just been a placement bet getter for us so uh sewo has a whole bunch of top 20s a whole bunch of uh he’s got a top 10 of the players where he finished sixth um but what’s more interesting about SEIU for me is I’m huge on TIA green this week and if you look at seo’s overall TI to Green in his last 20 starts he’s he’s averaging four strokes per uh per tournament which doesn’t sound like a lot but that’s over 20 tournaments so 80 measured rounds like there’s a ton of consistency there and then when you look at the rest of his game the approach is trailing right there so um off the te he’s been very consistent uh surprisingly so for SEIU to a point and the around the green game actually um over the last eight starts has been pretty darn good too I I that is his strongest stat like he’s way down the list for me but his strongest stats around the green which is see around the green interesting and if you look if you look at him too like he is textbook one of those ta green guys that all we need is a flat putting week from him if you look at like his last seven starts he he hasn’t broken even on the putting surface I know that’s not a good foreshadowing but I do think that putting tends to figure in a little less to winning equation here and seiw is very good at avoiding Bogies even with his [ __ ] putting so I think that there’s a lot of upside with sewo here especially with the overall ta to Green game and I in that range at the 50 to one Mark I think he’s probably my one of my favorite plays well I see you’re 50 to1 seuk Kim and I raise you a Wills alator 65 to one uh horse for the course and I think we’re looking for good iron players here if I’m not mistaken and Wily is pure pure pure pure with irons pure like Brooks kepka pure with irons I don’t think you can make that reference anymore he’s still a good iron player just can’t make a putt anymore and that’s I mean I just I really like Willie Z here I think that he’s he’s in good form despite battling the back he’s he’s looked good every week I’ve watched him where he hasn’t won yet but you know it’s coming just like before he got hurt it took a while for him to break through through but once he did it was at a big tournament in a playoff and I mean Willie Z is he’s a beast and I think that he’s getting insulted at 65 to one I mean does the overall around the green game not concern you I mean I know he’s coming back from injury and he’s been kind of in and out but I mean 67th over the last 24 and around the green 61st in sand saves and 68th putting and that’s on yeah that’s I’m I’m I’m choosing to ignore that because his his strongest putting surface is fast bent grass so I’m going I’m going to look past the bad chipping because yeah it’s been ugly but I’m also I’m looking at other guys that are shorter than him who look even worse in those categories like Colin morawa who at first glance I’m like oh Colin morawa he’s he’s been runner up here before but man around the greens not good for Colin so I’m looking at I’m looking at this as a great value for Z who yeah around the green 64th scrambling 67th everything you said here but seventh and birdies are better gained 18th in driving distance he’s got the length here he even though he’s usually top 10 distance-wise he’s he’s had to change his swing to be more compatible with his back his iron game still pure his putting has been better I think Willie Z is just mispriced that’s all yeah I can get behind the misprice I don’t I I’m I’m still probably a wait and see with Wily z a little bit longer but but I get where you’re coming from I can’t fault you too much it’s a good price and I said it earlier I don’t think anybody 100 to one or deeper is going to win this tournament or even contend but I’m going to throw Justin Rose out there and I’ll I’ll wait for our deep shot but Justin Rose here is a horse for the course great long iron player we just played him at the PGA for the same reason and he showed up out uh this this guy’s really talented still he’s not he’s not exciting cuz he doesn’t make that many birdies anymore I mean Justin Rose is getting up there in age but his Firepower is more suited for these grinder out grinded out courses that demand good iron play Justin Rose is a player here at 100 to one I just don’t get it especially with how well he’s played here I think he won here uh a few years ago maybe 2018 something like that ye yeah I I think at 100 to one it’s worth a few uh few bucks I I’m not a big Justin Rose truther and I in my adjusted model he’s 51st so I’m not running to do it but in the adjusted course fit model he is 13th and and seventh he’s seventh for me so I yeah I think I think to the point 100 to1 is incredibly long for somebody who has good history and sets up really well here so I think it’s again you do a lot Dumber [ __ ] with five bucks every time $500 payday I I’d take it on Justin Rose why not yeah all right so you got your you got anybody in that kind of mid high range um yeah I have two that I’m looking at I’m not I haven’t sold myself into it yet um Tom Hog’s got horrible hor like horrible history here but he’s got obiously but he’s having I mean I can’t hit a sand wedge on every second shot here [ __ ] but he is having an otherworldly uh season for Tom hogi and the approach game has been really good he’s pretty accurate off the te he’s very short how’s his putting you know the put let’s I mean he’s part of team no putt yeah I could tell H but 8 just I was just wondering how was putting was doing I mean let’s be honest though 80 to1 on Tom hogi who’s actually been kind of hanging around all season I mean it’s not a horrible number on a course that is more of a second shot course um that’s a little more Tom Hog’s wheelhouse the guy that I’m super interested in there is actually Christian Baden who at 90 to1 and you start to look at what he’s been doing this year and I know we were kind of hot on him early and we’ve kind of tapered off but he keeps hanging around the top 20 in almost every tournament he tees it up in uh he has had a little bit of directional concerns off the tea lately but he rates out number eight for me in the adjusted course fit and uh if you look at all of his short game metrics he’s kind of ridiculous around the green and saving his ass um he really is so he’s number 11 in my model for stroke scan around the green he’s number one in sand save percentage and both those things are going to come in super handy at this course so I uh I don’t hate it and then you couple that with a fifth ranked putter in the field on Fast bent grass I mean he’s got the short game to really hang around so um CZ at 90 to one seems a little long for what he could do all right I I get it and do you have any really deep shots because I have one that we both love I will let you do that one I am uh I’m going back to our old friend Eric Cole this week the coal train the coal train is leaving the station definitely team nut this is uh this is going to be the bounceback week for Eric Cole so hope so friend of the show Eric Cole 250 to one on Eric Cole who placed 24th in his first time out here last year this is a course that really sets up nicely for what his game is and he demonstrated that in his first timeout last season so uh Eric Cole is definitely a pincher nose and uh pinch your nose and hope but let’s hope that his his uh around the green putting and scrambling hold up with his 69th off the te and 67th on approach it’s really really like it what’s weird is if you expand the um overall modeling on him like if you get outside of that 24 range where he’s really been struggling lately that that golfer is still in there he’s just in a bit of a bit of a Down spot so I’m going to try and be early on Eric Cole because this is a guy that we were paying like you know 80 or Worse on consistently um for about the last 12 months so 250 to one on somebody who I know is an excellent golfer and can bounce back here I think it’s I think it’s a pretty good deal I’m gonna take the Firepower at 250 to one the big Siesta Jake nap Jake nap Jake it’s so refreshing Jake naps are the most refreshing naps with his Freddy couple swing and his Cameron Smith hair I cut mine off this week this guy looking Dapper over there it’s over 68 degrees in s s fall yeah get rid of the main well [ __ ] the sun came out for more than 20 minutes today I’ll get a tan in the next week or two but yeah talk about Jake nap cuz I do love him and that I think that’s a bit of a misprice too on Jake knap his iron awesome Yep tea to Green baby and his chipping and putting not terrible streaky streaky and where with his length he’s got a little bit of Rory in him honestly uh obviously not the Polish around the greens or putting in very tough clutch situations uh those aren’t developed yet he’s still really young and and pretty much a rookie on tour still uh but he’s got a lot of Rory in him and that distance and accuracy off the tea that approach game with his mid irons I I think he’s got enough Firepower where I’m going to take a couple bucks and light it on fire with him and and I’m thinking about going back to a top 20 parlay with one guy that’s kind of safe and one guy that’s a long shot like him uh with him and Justin Rose doing a top 20 parlay because you’re going to get decent odds on each one of them individually but together in a little twoleg it’s going to be even more profitable especially if Jake comes out there and starts making birdies it’s especially with what he does on par fives that’s the big appeal is Jake knap on par FES is a destroyer of worlds that’s how good he is at scoring uh when he’s in play and that’s that’s what I’m hoping for it is that long shot to really pay me more money honey more money all right you ready to do some DFS trunk slams you’re well practiced by now H that’s hilarious it’s not true I can’t the club is well this would be a wrestl was well timed you’re such a [ __ ] guilty guilty is charged so Scotty sheffler is approaching 40% roster ship uh how much are you willing to expose yourself to them’s prison words uhy it’s the only three weeks you get in South Dakota where you can’t expose yourself without frostbite that’s not completely inaccurate uh for a guy who’s uh got two3 in a 22nd and is absolutely the best player on the planet right now at this course I uh I think at minimum I’ll match the field I could be approaching 50% I just think that even if even if Scotty Doesn’t win Scotty scores so many DK points and why why is that because he’s lethal on his irons lethal we’re talking not even close to proximity numbers are Scotty shuffler and then like four tiers and then the next group of guys like Scotty sheffler on approach is I hope not God that suck Chelsea in with a not inaccurate about South Dakota so we got South Dakota folks in here shout out I I just I think that you’re right it’s Scotty sheffler is so precise he gives himself so many scoring chances where even if he struggling he’s still tapping in for par and that’s that’s that’s the craziest part about his run is he’s going to keep making birdies even if he has a bad hole where he makes a double he’s probably going to ring off three consecutive birdies to follow it up cuz pissed off Scotty is no less boring than normal Scotty but he’s just a little bit even better with a little Edge to him uh now he’s got his teardrop tattoos and and some uh toilet wine we’re talking about a different Scott Sheffer he’s got the beard still this is an assassin and a DFS assassin that it’s chalk you eat every time it’s like Derek Henry against the against the uh the Texans for all those years it’s like he just knew knew that Derrick Henry is going to plow for 250 yards and three touchdowns against Houston that’s what he you be careful over there that’s my newly adopted AFC team bandwagoner I like the team too they’re pretty good yeah I I was I was early on him for last year but maybe a little too early anyways yeah I think I think Sheffer 40 50% I think that’s where it’s at I’s leverage yeah which is wild um 11 one for Rory and he’s only coming at 177% Hammer smash that 40% exposure on Rory whatever you’re not starting with Scotty you better bet your ass I’m starting it with Rory yeah and truthfully up there like I I don’t know that I’m gonna do a whole lot of other plays besides Scotty and Rory I mean the way the pricing is set up y i I’ve got myself fairly well convinced that it’s going to be one of those two guys it’s going to be right there if if and probably winning what’s the matter with ludvig oberg I just don’t trust the knee I I like it’s it’s bad I I love the way he sets up here um and if you’ve got the stomach for it I think it’s a really on paper on paper lve Goldberg is incredible but on the course he’s gimpy yeah I just I I don’t know I I don’t think I can do it here not not with the top of this board it’s it’s a it’s a nasty it’s a little more gamble than I want to do in DFS if I was really sold I’d go bet the outright on him well I’m just happy to see that my two guys in the nines are both leverage can’t lay and JT uh can’t lay 10% projected and 12.6 projected for JT Hammer Smash and as much as I really like keki another horse for the cor sets up number one in my model he’s coming at 133% which for DFS scoring is a little high for me I’ll have some Hideki in the pool absolutely but um for for how much chalky’s getting as as we get closer to lock I’m I’m going to be very happy playing kle and JT for a little bit more money because I know there’s value down below that we’re going to cover yeah I’m I’m probably I’m probably with you I I think it’s For Me Above nine it’s it’s Scotty Rory JT um yeah and and that’s that’s I’m going to be pretty concentrated I may try and find ways to stack two of them um which has not been working out great for me stacking topheavy but you know no he should probably not do that anymore shall we talk about the eights he’s he’s doing the dice thing too much that’s all he’s got man the eights uh wendam clar is leverage he’s playing pretty poorly lately so I I think I’ll skip him theala off the teame last week wof that was scary we’re talking Mega Shanks he still got a phenomenal short game but guy broke his driver yeah he broke his driver and before he broke it he was hitting it like he broke it and was trying to hit with a broken driver that’s how bad he was off the team uh that’s a really big Yip to avoid at this place so even Leverage sahit theala is a probably a nogo here um spe and hom have more upside as leverage picks Sam Burns as Leverage I mean just name your guy in the eights it’s a solid group um chalky Corey Connors thanks for the free fade I appreciate it I uh he’ll be in the pool but I I’ll be I I’m not going to be I don’t know if I’m even gonna be field heavy on him he’s on the cusp of the pool for me like he’s got a star next to his name right now but he’s he’s burning like he’s he’s losing ground to other guys as as I get closer to lock Cory Connor’s short game not his putting his putting’s been flat lately it’s his chipping his chipping is almost like 57th in this field in scrambling that’s not going to get it done here his ball striking is good but it’s not good compared to Scotty sheffler Rory Xander Victor all these guys are a class above Cory Connors and they all have better short games than Cory Connors so uh chalky Cory Connors for me is a free fade and I’d be surprised if he finds very many any lineups at all what do you think about uh Sam Burns great great leverage play 8300s to cheap 7.9 is his current roster ship projection that’s green flag racing Sam Burns fits this course really well uh great long iron player a lot of the same guys who play at PGA are going to be viable here that’s it’s not a similar Golf Course really but it is going to be something that you pay attention to the same like same players who experti is in the same yardage buckets and and emphasis uh similar in both in both cases with Valhalla and here so yeah a lot of these same guys Sam Burns I was high on a couple weeks ago I’m not going to quit him now he’s he’s friend of the show I how about chalky Russell Henley good God on that but I will thank you for another free fade I I will say I’m I’m probably going to fire up some Alexander noren 8100 hey in DFS I’m all for it this gu never won [ __ ] about anything he’s never won anything ever he is the opportunities gain tanker that if you don’t run that that model for opportunities gained Alex noren is going to be in the top five every time uh this course is not an opportunities gained course fortunately for Alex norin so we fire him up we get 76 to 82 points on DK he’s going to make the cut it’s almost a guarantee and he’s probably not going to crack the top 10 so your 26th Place finish for norin we get you 76 to 82 DK points if you’re looking for a 6 out of six like a single entry tournament or a cash game like a head-to-head or a small group cash game uh noren’s a fantastic DFS play and he doesn’t have to be better than that at 8100 I think that’s the important thing to call out like last week they thought he was maybe gonna win then he you know shits the bet on you um you know this week he’s reasonably priced to your point there’s no no chance he misses the cut knock on wood for because I said it only the only ones that are going going to miss the cut are going to be outside of 10 shots away from the leader that’s that that’s a pretty easy one to cross for most of these guys you’re going to you might get one or two or three guys cut you might got anybody cut if they’re all within 10 shots after two rounds then you got Ben on in there too that we glost right over and I really do kind of like Ben on for DFS purposes kind of a similar profile to like sewoo but can hit the ball a little farther so yeah um having an equally good season 10.7% he’s not chalk yet um but 8,400 it’s a nice pivot off of Cory Connors who I just don’t see it yeah that’s easy Fades all around um I’m high on Jason day leverage I’m going to eat a little bit of chalk at 11% with Denny McCarthy he plays well here Wills alatus leverage at 7500 it’s so good I’m with I’m with you obviously even seiw at the percentage like I really love sewo that’s some CH yeah that’s that’s really chalky that’s some chalk but if you look at the guys around him I feel like he’s again 99% sure he makes the cut seiw can score DK points yeah having a good season I think I have more confidence in his scoring ability than I do Keegan or or Jason day like and I certainly uh don’t think that we’re going to be in that bad a spot with see Wu chock given how bad Tony feno and Shane Lowry are 7900 they’re both tracking at 15 plus per rostered and I am a hard fade hard fade on both of them suckers so suckers suckers everywhere I think in a way sew at 17% is probably not nearly as chalky as as it feels at that percentage Shane Lowry and Tony F now could do a two-man scramble and still have 31 putts well once you get the general public involved the people that don’t watch shows like this like they know the names yeah they know the names oh my God like those are both very well-known names in the golf world that are not great plays that feels like a DraftKings trap all day to Me Like Somebody priced it that way they’re like oh fre money coming in so you I know you’re on hogy and Bez uh any chance you get a little Jager bombb or a little Ricky Fowler who’s making Cuts these days uh I don’t no no actually at 7,000 I’d much rather play Lucas Glover um follows my team no putut absolutely much better T green he’s actually got a solid around the green game too which we’ve talked about before um he’s just another dude you need a flat butter and then yeah another friend of the show right at 7K who actually kind of makes some sense here is our our good friend Kurt kyama shout out NorCal let me go find that comment and repost it yeah Kurt kyama is a great play here 8.6% projected roster ship I’ll throw in 10 15% because I he’s solid um Justin Rose is here at 6,900 nice oxe is getting a little less love than usual that’s because it’s a long iron Golf Course short iron Golf Course play oxe long iron Golf Course don’t play oxe yeah I got no interest in OE here and then and dri’s been looking solid on these types of courses but belgians no offense Sound Logic I can’t fault you uh any deep shots at all I mean I don’t like any of these guys down here I don’t think I’m going to want to be down here very often but Jake knap Nick Dunlap those two guys are just cheap and nobody’s gonna have them really I actually have some decent ones down here that I think are going a little overlooked um Enlighten us please I need more players my first one’s Taylor Moore who actually has been playing pretty good golf good par five scorer good sand save percentage that a brand of paint That’s Benjamin Moore okay yeah button uh so uh Strokes G part five though Taylor Moore’s 11th in the field sansi percentage 11th in the field 10th in the field for strokes gained around the green um the concerning part is obviously he’s not great off the te um but again seems important yeah I think but he’s been able to get stuff done in in spite of it so Taylor Mo at 6,800 I think is another dude that can score DK points will make the cut true um Victor Perez off of a pretty hot week last week that 64 on Sunday got him out of nowhere Leon surprisingly though if you look at the last 24 he’s another guy that has a really pretty solid par five game uh good long approach hits a lot of greens and regul so you don’t even have to worry about him getting up and down but it turns out he’s pretty good at it when he does um he was actually actually 16th in my model so 6,800 Victor Perez I don’t hate Le Austin e root 6700 um actually is number one in this field for uh approach from 175 to 200 and also is very accurate off the T and 20th in this field for opportunities gained which actually was surprising for a guy down in the sixes so then lejes is another guy down here that I have a lot of interest in number six in the field in sand saves 11th in Fairways gained 19th in overall Strokes gained approach of 177% owned there’s a reason for that Jesus if you look at his stats though man I mean he’s having a really good season great year we’ve been writing him in DFS as a great value pick all year uh you heard it here many times to play Lee Hodes especially when he’s cheap and he’s just a really accurate consistent player really solid allaround game not getting any attention and he’s finally getting some flowers here which gives me pause on giving a getting a bunch of them involved here in DFS but I still have him yeah I I think I mean I think that you can eat some chalk down here most of these guys down here that I just named have a better than average chance of being in the top 50 and making the cut like these are real players that are just priced here because of the how topheavy this field is is so true and then Sheamus power at 6300 is the last one that I would call out um again just uh been playing good accurate golf the last 24 he’s number eight in the field team no Drive team no drive but surprisingly he’s 18th in this field for uh Fairways gain percentage 17th for greens and regulation and 15th sand save eighth an overall approach outstanding putter too yeah so he’s his Putter’s actually been failing in the last 24 he rates out damn near the bottom but that’s not necessarily typical so that’s coming back it’s regression candidate right there so I just gave you a shitload of sub seven plays that actually are real people that could really score for you they all the kids in the pool I got 33 in mine right now that’s more than me for once I believe I’m at 24 yeah 24 all right who’s going to win and what score I’m going to go Rory mroy at 13 under I’m going to go Rory mroy at 11 under first round leader Sam Burns I’ll do something different SEO sewo can get a hot hand and come out he definitely can all right the Hat we need a hat drop theme song all right the Hat has chosen number six oh okay that’s a good number ludvig oberg oh and dodged a bullet there mine is Xander shafley well what the [Laughter] [ __ ] well so actually the Hat pretty well pretty well aligned if uh lud VI’s knee is uh good to go then you know I love the way he sets up yeah Ander yeah Xander Xander you know Xander’s gonna be there we just don’t know what he’s gonna how he’s gonna finish which we’ve seen both both sides of now I’m looking forward to beating you this week I’m not gonna lie to you cheers to you thanks for joining us join us again next week for the US Open from pineur number two oh man the Carnage I expect a winning score next week of about even par compared to this week it’s GNA be nasty USGA setup shout out to everybody who joined us NorCal Canada South Dakota the hat hat all right you gonna be here next week Connor for the US Open I wouldn’t miss it all right thank you for joining us have a great night
