2024 The Memorial Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Odds | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 The Memorial Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:39 Field/Quick Notes
4:28 Course Flyover/Notes
14:07 Event History
24:08 Course Stats
28:06 Stat Model
38:04 2023 Stats
40:17 Jack Courses
42:40 Guess The Odds

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a experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code mayo and Underdog fantasy right now get you a deposit bonus of up to $250 smash the like while you’re here fantasy national.com Mayo gives you access to all the tools that I’m using for the walkthrough today that you’re going to see up on the screen or if you’re just listening to the audio version but I want to talk about the Memorial Research picks and maybe early guess the odds although when it comes to these small field events the odds are going to be a little bit different because Scotty’s going to be like plus 400 plus 350 Rory will be 7 to one and then everyone else I guess Xander’s probably moved himself up into that mix as well he probably comes in at like 10 to1 or something like that but they’re just going to squeeze Us in terms of the odds and all of these Signature Events but overall this is the final signature event with a cut line at least there’s 71 players in the field I suppose more could be added based on the Aon nex5 which you can take a look at it right now actually I was looking at it before I came in I really can’t make much sense of what’s going on with this but you can see and I’m obviously recording this the Sunday of the Canadian open so we don’t know the final there although Robert McIntyre has a fourstroke lead which would make him number one in the Aon swing five Davis Riley would be number two but Davis Riley would have a win and so would Robert McIntyre which I think automatically puts you in to all of the Signature Events so by this logic that it’s like the top five who are not previously in I guess that would take McIntyre and Riley off of that list it’s like btia is still on the next 10 but baa has a win too and so does Stephen yagger and so does matu pavon so does ludvig obar like all these guys have wins and so does Taylor pendri these guys qualify I like the idea of having this point system where you can win yourself a place in I’d love to see Davis Thompson or Mac messenger end up in the memorial because they played so well in the previous three tournaments they get themselves in but maybe making it a little bit easier to understand of how these standings are going to work and really lay it out for everyone I think would give us a better sense of what we’re actually trying to watch like said the Aon next five makes a logical sense something I could root for if I was watching the Canadian open later today be like Oh I’m really rooting for Pearson Coe to make these two birdies so his dad doesn’t have to buy him a spot into the memorial but I have no idea if two birdies will do anything for him because is he going to take Robert McIntyre’s place and then Aon next Wing if Robert McIntyre wins is Davis Riley I mean gdup has a win on there too for Christ’s sake like no idea what’s going on so it looks like those guys will be in the field as of right now with sniger coocher and horel getting sponsors exemptions I believe web Simpson is out of his exemptions at this point I think Adam Scott is too because Adam Scott’s been trying to play himself into the US Open where he has not missed a major championship since 2001 he’s going to have to go qualify it looks like probably at the Canadian sectional qualifying after the Canadian open which I believe is on Monday or Tuesday whichever day is the longest day in golf where everyone tries to qualify for the US Open I believe that is this week with the US Open coming next week ton of content for the US Open by the way I believe that’s going to start with Friday player by player me and venzi going to battle it back and forth to see who we like it Pinehurst Keith Stewart’s going to join me for the course breakdown you know Byron cam Jeff cus Tambo everyone is going to be in play this week for the US Open so it’s going to be a lot of fun but for this week it looks like Adam Scott’s not going to be in the Memorial Field the play it’s 71 players top in ties end up making the cut but unless you really flame out and you can at Memorial as we’ll see here in a second that you can probably kind of identify and kind of Peg who the guys who are going to miss the cut are going to be but still I do like the fact that 21 players will be eliminated after Friday it gives some incentive to try somewhat hard and not just show up hit a t-shot collect a paycheck move on your way uh I just think it adds a little bit more incentive and obviously for daily fantasy players for betters head-to-head players whatever it might be having a cut does install you know something to root for on Friday I don’t see have the PGA Tour misses this every single time but alas they do let’s get to the course mirfield Village is a Jack Nicholas design course par 72 7569 yards bent grass green 68 bunkers across the course with the green side bunkers being some of the most challenging that the players see every year on the PGA tour 13 holes with water in play and an average green size of five 5,000 square ft funny to think about it because mirfield Village I believe is the sixth longest course the players have competed on so far this season Bentgrass greens that are only 5,000 yards that is very similar to what we saw at Valhalla two weeks ago that one of the longest courses that the players of I believe that was the third longest course Majors included so far in 2024 bent grass greens that were 5,000 square ft and when you take a look at the very top of that leaderboard you see Xander ends up with a win at the PGA Championship in case you forgot if you haven’t been paying attention for two weeks or something like that and his memorial track record should be a lot better than you think it is I he’s finished inside the top 24 of the past five years with no top 10 strangely enough but the other two guys on that list Victor hland who was last year’s champion at mirfield Village and Bryson de Shambo who was the 2018 champion at mirfield Village that maybe there is some sort of crossover to that list uh just in the recent past that’s what we’ve seen some of these guys end up winning I forget how Patrick kley did at the PGA Championship since Patrick cley I just assumed he missed the cut but he’s won here twice in the past six years so he won in 2019 obviously he won again in 2021 at minus 13 the playoff over moraa and moraca is another one who was won at mirfield Village was at the very top of the leaderboard at Valhalla he won during the work day during the covid comeback year in 2020 played much easier and much shorter than it did when John ROM won a week later at minus 9 which is one of the most difficult uh tracks we’ve like ever seen on the PGA tour with how burnt out and how hard Jack Nicholas and the team made mirfield village in 2020 which just played so firm and so fast yeah Patrick cley did make the cut but Morell lost to canell in that playoff in 2021 when ROM was forced to withdraw with when he was killing everyone after three rounds the little things that stick out in your mind but either way it’s very clear Billy horel won here two years ago he finished inside the top 10 at Valhalla I just saw a lot of similar names rear their ugly head up from Valhalla uh of what we saw at mirfield Village over the so just a few other people uh since we’re sticking along here more on the course here in a second of who did well at the PGA Championship in case you forgot dri Lowry and Lowry has a good connection because Firestone of Memorial used to have a lot of crossover elements obviously the only win that Shane Lowry has as a singles competitor in America is actually at Firestone Justin Rose a former winner at Memorial um and a former playoff Losa to David lingmerth in 2015 ended up coming in six Billy horel won at mirfield Village Justin Thomas has not but he ended up coming in eighth Bobby Mack who’s having a nice showing this week Sheffer lost like eight Strokes putting last year and still ended up coming in third they who else do you have the gala Rory norin Lee Hodes Taylor Moore yeah so just I would these are the guys that I would be looking at this week is all I’m saying uh in terms of a bit of crossover courses we haven’t seen Firestone in so long that we’re likely not going to see much of it anyway in terms of everything translating through through like tiger was great at both of them I mentioned Lowry won Keegan Bradley has played well at both courses Bubba has played well at both courses but it’s been so long he’s not even on the PGA tour anymore anyway at the conclusion of the 2020 Memorial that was after the second playing of the course in 2 weeks the greens the fairways the tea boxes were all regrasp with around a 100 extra yards added to the course and the greens weren’t just reconstructed with new Bank Grass irrigation and a precision air system but they were also recontoured as well and all the greenside bunkers were modified as well mirfield Village had already possessed as mentioned the most difficult greenside sand tra on tour and the adjustments that we saw the next two years following that didn’t really make them any easier still the most difficult on the PGA tour this year there’s a new tea box at number 16 it was moved 25 yards to the right and the backside greens side bunker was removed last year new te’s were added to number 16 they’ve already changed that that’s the power three over the water and number 17 uh which made it Play 503 yards so they’ve just been you know making it a little bit longer over the years generating sand saves as mentioned from the 68 bunkers spread across the grounds is absolutely essential the greenside bunkers at mirfield Village have annually resulted in the longest proximity lengths of any course on the regular PGA Tour rotation couple that with tiny Lightning Fast greens Memorial sits inside the top five courses with the lowest scrambling percentage and despite the Myriad changes over the years the classical elements of mirfield Village remain high driving accuracy with the wide Fairways low Greens in regulation with the smaller than average greens and there’s no real runoff areas except for some of the false fronts mainly around the greens you’re getting into the thick rough immediately a little bit like Bay Hill uh which is probably why Victor was able to get it up and down so well because sometimes when you have those really tight lies that can be less of an advantage that’s more of an advantage to the great around the green players they’re able to control the spin pick it off that Turf no problem once you add the element of thick rough where you really can’t get much spin on the ball and kind of just like bump it out hack it out and be very good with your weight you see some of the crappier guys from around the green end up doing a little bit better from that regard mirfield Village also have the longest proximity from inside 100 yards from the rough and the second lowest going for the green rate with Colonial being the first on par fives of any course in the regular rotation and this can have a compounding effect you lay up but you miss the Fairway and you bring a much bigger number into play this is why mirfield has the second lowest birdie percentage from the rough of any course on tour and despite the offer mentioned tiny and lightning fast bent grass greens putting really hasn’t been that big of an issue for the field it can get going bad for some of the bad Putters sometimes as I mentioned Scotty Sheffer lost I believe seven and a half or eight and a half Strokes a year ago but they run so pure that generally speaking terrible Putters have done pretty well we’ve seen morao win here although he is putting a little bit better now benan has lost in a playoff here in the pass who is putting a little bit better at the moment when they hit those strides and ended up winning or losing in a playoff they were not the best Putters on the PGA tour in fact they were some of the worst mirfield Village ranks as the third lowest three putt rate of any regular PGA course uh that we see every single year and inside the top five makes from 5 to 15 feet in 2021 the field made 89% of putts inside 10 ft that is insane to think think about when trying to look at the common links between the winner um it’s always imperative to remove Tiger Woods from any situation that you know he won at Memorial five times so was everywhere a crossover course with where Tiger has done well now tiger kind of did well everywhere except for Riviera but the approach widely outweighs driving at mirfield Village you don’t even need to be that long at mirfield Village we’ve seen some short hitters win over the years CH Jason duffner has won here Kyle Stanley ended up in that playoff with benan and Bryson and that was before big beefy Bryson when he wasn’t leading the field in driving distance and he was just good off the tea hitting a ton of Fairways at the time so hitting the Fairway widely outweighs driving 13 of the past 15 winners uh sorry 14 of the past 16 winners have ranked inside the top 10 of Strokes ganed approach for the week two years ago five of the top six finishers on the leaderboard finished inside the top 10 in Strokes ganed approach this isn’t breaking news if you you’re watching the show listening to the show you probably already know this stuff but in case there’s a first time viewer out there I got to make mention of a lot of this stuff despite being a longer par 72 the shorter hitters who again gain Strokes off the tea and do very well with long irons can very much compete any plays that I mentioned that lingor Stricker Jason duffner Matt coocher are all past champions can do this and being in Ohio the Firestone crossover is pretty real Firestone was replaced on the schedule more than a few years ago now probably I think six or seven years ago but different guys that had had success there Lehman lingor Bradley Klay Bubba as mentioned Bryson Justin Rose Jim fur Jason deffner so a lot of different names up there and a lot of those same names have navigated TBC sass really well in their careers I’m not really sure how that correlates despite being I mean you have to hit a ton of Fairways at that course I suppose and they’re not the widest uh I mean they are pretty wide Fairways but they’re not the really the the largest greens or around the same size greens maybe that has something to do with or it’s just random chance who knows uh the key this week to tread water on the long par 3es and just don’t waste the opportunities on the power five we see a few of these courses pop up I don’t expect it to be as difficult as it was a year ago when I mean we can jump over to Fantasy national.com right now and take a look at that but as you can see up here near the top you can see all the tools and we go to tournament history for Memorial and look through it Victor havin was the winner a year ago he won it minus 7 in a playoff over Denny McCarthy the year before that Billy horel kind of ran away with it at minus 13 over Klay Denny was inside the top five the Galla was inside the top five so orom and will zot torus 2021 was the Klay over moraa year with Sheffer in third sheffler has come in third place in both of his last two appearances we’ll take a look at The Strokes gain breakdown in a moment that was a playoff but that was also the year that Rah absolutely went nuclear and then had to leave because he tested positive for covid the year before that at ROM one and who the hell was in second place I think it was Ryan yeah Ryan Palmer ended up coming in second place that year Fitz Jason day M this was such a weird outlier year you we take a look at The Strokes game for 2020 and you can just see like the the winning score was Min – 9 but the minus 9 was let’s see- 99 – 6 5 44 33 21 there were nine guys including Kevin n Luke list at even power and oh I forgot that the my main man the the Chinese bad boy of golf zingu Zang ended up coming T10 that week Harris English and Patrick re all these guys were like even par nine guys finished below par and it played so firm it played so fast it was actually incredible to watch that’s also the year when ROM chipped in on 16 it’s like did his ball move when he grounded his club and in the rough or whatever the hell it was just the T green game was absolutely electric you can see the guys that finished well except for Xander who lost five Strokes spting just all gained it on the green Xander was the only player inside what the top 22 who lost Strokes on the green I really like sew Kim this week uh I was off him at the PGA Championship so maybe I probably should be again but it’s not like you know he just continues to bleed Strokes on the green I don’t really know what’s going on with that but he’s done very well at Memorial over the course of his career in terms of gaining Strokes on the green and very good from around these greens as well that if you can keep up his accuracy off the te the similar approach play and just not lose three and a half four five Strokes on the greens I think he’ very much compete this week and I think the people would be off of him because of the last two times that we have seen him so I wouldn’t really correlate 2020 that really seemed like a really bizarre year and they wanted to make it a little bit more difficult after the course hosting the work day the week before where morawa Beat Justin Thomas in the playoff and Vic missed it by a stroke as well those were the top three it just played a lot easier although I think it’s number 14 they made into a drivable power 4 for the workday which they really don’t do at the memorial and I actually really liked it just because I thought it was fun to see the guys you know morawa especially because I had bet on morawa that week just try to take dead aim at these power fours uh and really try to jump up on the field the problem was that if you hit it into the water on the right hand side like it wasn’t that difficult of an up and down so there really was no penalty for going for it like you probably make car bogey at worst there was no big numbers that came into play and even making eagle on it when the pin was at the back was still pretty difficult just gave yourself a nice two putt easy birdie but I remember Justin Thomas laying up on it every single time and still hitting it to 5 feet with his wedge so maybe it was better off as a longer power four and not a drivable one but I would like to see maybe if they could put in Institute some sort of rule that if where if you hit it into the water there there’s like a designated Drop Zone that’s not like right next to the green like you have to go 100 yards back so you bring the water back into play on a hole like that I would like to see that because I just think driveable power fours that actually do present legitimate risk reward is what we want to see so when you see these players in the 2020 leaderboard that’s kind of an outlier from what we normally see you can see you know Fitz has has two top 10 he’s been cut twice don’t expect very many players to be cut twice uh and a 50 man in a 71 person field with a 50 man cut you know day has been okay this is his home course cuz he lives in Ohio now but you know T4 is the best he’s done in his past five goes horel has the win and a top 10 like you can eject here so quickly spe actually has a really good track record here I’d actually like to see speed do something and get himself back into the mix 2019 can’t lay one Hideki has a win at this course he was six that year he was dced that oh the 2022 he got dqd because of the weird what the hell do you call it um oh why is it Liquid Paper it looked like it was on his three-wood I I I don’t know why I just remember this being a thing at the time and he ended up getting dced because of it we just take a look at the past five years there any like random jabronies who pop up Denny plays this well Lowry plays this well though Lowry probably loses like eight million Strokes putting every single time but then he’ll have the one round where he was okay and the ball striking was really good but his accuracy really does come into play here Fowler has has Fowler one here now fer gagged it away to Jason duffner in 2017 that I remember very vividly so does Jeff Cuz Jeff bet on him horel morawa Baden Hout has been pretty good in three starts although nothing better than t22 shank was top 10 last year top 30 the year before that okay Lee Hodges was T12 last year I’ll take a look at Lee Hodges I think he was one of the names that popped up for the PGA Championship as well Davis Riley coming off his win obviously withdrew this week from the RBC Canadian open was t13 in 2022 anyone else Eric Cole Eric Cole’s got it going bad right now although he was t24 last year had been playing a lot better last year so here’s something interesting I like Austin ekro this week he’s another player who just hits a ton of Fairways very accurate off the te we see he’s not playing the best golf coming in although he did play pretty well mainly due to putting at the PGA Championship not great around the greens but the interesting thing was when I went back and watched last year’s I mean 2002 Memorial Health on the corn fairy tour second place so great Memorial history not so much at the Memorial tournament but if we search ECOT he was kind of up there in this tournament he shot at 77 in the final round to really take himself out of it the other one who did that was lipsky lipsky also fired a 77 he ended up coming in 12 but you can just see that ecro was very much in the mix and just completely imploded coming down the stretch and we saw that with a few people like you know havin shot two under power so did Denny sheffler had an amazing weekend uh and Hideki I what the hell happened to Hideki shot a 65 in round too that I remember yeah there’s hii 72 65 75 76 like it played very difficult a year ago which I’m very much appreciate I like it when these courses play pretty hard everything that everyone wanted from the PGA Championship a year ago kind of we kind of got it this tournament so maybe we’ll get that again putam don’t remember how he did Lee Hodges I just brought up uh actually played well at the PGA Championship he was 12th he’s been 12th each of the past two weeks getting a ton on approach getting a ton on the greens right now and if I had to get yes he probably hits the ball pretty accurately off the te let’s take a look at his driving numbers you can always do that on fantasy National with driving and distance and accuracy you get the club head speeds overall driving accuracy is only 56 or 57% sorry but that’s not really what I’m concerned about I’m concerned about how he hits Fairways versus the field uh driving distance gained very low loses distance to the field more often than not despite the fact that what is his average driving distance here uh doesn’t say don’t have that one but we have the driving distance gained and there it is but the fairways gained he has gained on the field on Fairways basically every tournament except for the RBC Heritage which was a shorter course strangely enough so this actually sets up really well for Lee Hodges so I like that a lot so Lee Hodges let’s add Hodges to the list who do we have so far Hodges see woo benan and all these guys will depend on odds like I like benan a lot if he comes at 30 to1 I don’t know how much I like benan anymore in an elevated event but I do think where Scotty Rory and Xander are going to soak up so much of the odds at the top and you’ll probably get morawa and Klay as well coming in not I don’t want to say overpriced but because they’ve had success Mora is playing really well right now that they might get overvalued in this market a little bit spe will most likely be overvalued so if those guys are at 18 to 22 those three guys along with ludvig because that’s just where ludvig is every single a week I’m sure there’s someone I’m forgetting in this mix as well doesn’t matter if you go Rory Xander Sheffer and then morawa ludvig spe and like others of that vein there’s only so many guys that could be sub 30 to one even in a signature event field that you might start getting a little bit of a better number MCL messenger oh I mean Taylor Moore should I bet on tayor Moore guy can’t hit an iron and I did say that irons are like the most important thing here dude really can’t hit irons but he keeps having great finish can putt really well he drives it really well he’s great around the greens the finishes don’t really like weirdly correlate to guys who have success on the PGA tour and it’s funny because the one week I did bet him at valpar when he was trying to get his Repeat Performance I bet him the next week in Houston as well although although he came second he didn’t have a chance to win because he blew it on the power five coming down the stretch and then once he didn’t make birdie there and put it in the water that was the end of him you knew that he couldn’t win but the few weeks that he’s actually hit his irons well the driving has been really bad which is normally the thing that he does well which is kind of funny to think about and he just couldn’t roll putts any of those weeks when he was hitting his irons pretty well but to go back to the course itself and to take a look at you can use this tab course breakdown at the top we can see I mean just going through everything there’s no draftking streak to speak of as number 10 the third most difficult hole so you’re not really getting anything on the wraparound there number 18 the most difficult hole on the golf course I guess because 16 17 and 18 are three of the four most difficult holes on the course that inevitably just starting on one might make things easier if you’re one of the the lucky 10% of people that can scr out a birdie on number 10 but there’s no discernable difference here so you can see you know approach overstroke around for the top 10 the higher we get up the leaderboard the more that’s going to change like look how more pronounced that becomes almost immediately when you change it to top five finish even pting doesn’t even hold a candle to approach so that’s something to look at when we’re thinking about it ball striking outweigh short game amongst the top five finishers as well generally that flips a little bit because you always need to run such a hot putter in order to do anything n not so much the case here there are all the power fives and number 14 which was the drivable one at the workday so I was right number 14 shout out Pat for knowing things remembering things still carries a 23% birdie rate at the memorial when it is not a driveable power 4 you see a 2% Eagle rate 1.4 1.2 and 2.9% across the four power fives like if you are not making your hay on the power fives you’re absolutely screwed this week you can kind of see it you you have to gain there you can’t lose a ton on the par 3es you need to gain just a little bit and don’t give it all away Phil laid up on number 16 one year that was the John romier that’s why it played so stupidly difficult it says it’s 220 yards I don’t know what the hell it was playing that day but it was into the wind and the pin was tucked in the back left where you had to carry like the meat of the water in order to stick it close Ram ended up putting it over the pin and then chipping it in on the way back Phil laid up to the Fairway and it was [ __ ] amazing and just he was so disgusted by how it was set up that’s one thing I will always give Phil credit for he did it shinok Hills he did it here when the course is playing legitimately unfair Phil is not afraid to be petulant on the course which I just very much enjoy mentioned before the driving accuracy very high here because the wide Fairways 68% greens and regulations still very low be even playing from the Fairway you start playing from the rough no good not going to happen scrambling very low here 50% scrambling rates when we get on to Underdog fantasy this week by the way if you didn’t notice uh at the top I mean we have so many tools up here and the leaderboard app if you haven’t I mean if you’re a member at Fantasy National you can get in on the leaderboard app but we have the over under tab at Fantasy National as well um we can just choose a player here just to see Scotty Sheffer at memorial let’s see uh see what we got going on here this the I obviously the underdog numbers aren’t out yet but he would go over 68.5 82% of the time even for Scotty Sheffer and you can see his historic data at the course uh his player course history I mean this is courses in general this is everyone at the course this is him at that course at mirfield Village and just the player overall how he normally does versus that number and like you said like I just showed you it takes like less than two seconds in order to generate all of the stuff uh so you can put in manually put in what the lines are going to be on Underdog or any of the fantasy prop pick them sites uh it’s just one of the tools at the top and I just feel like people don’t even realize it’s up there it was added like a month ago so moose was just on top of it ended up doing that but that’s what we were looking at uh for what’s going on there’s the live beta for you can do apple Android I it’s the only app that I use so far I got in on a Vic Perez top 10 very early on Saturday morning um so hopefully that can end up coming to fruition he can maintain his position inside the top 10 maybe he can even play his way into this field this time around let’s build in a quick model for Memorial and see what is happening for us I haven’t looked at this one in a while but I do just like just from what I’ve been talking through so far approach Fairways long irons sand saves uh and long power fours is what I assume that my model has looked like from the past because those are the things that are most important to me this week Memorial new for 2023 well I built it last year let’s see how it did turn off Valhalla may you know what I’ll leave the Valhalla one around just to see as I mentioned those courses uh seemingly had a lot of crossover potential between them again very similar elements very similar length Valhalla little bit easier The mirfield Village but maybe we can find a few more names so The Strokes gain model overall as you can see this is what I have for my weights I kind of run this one every week just very shortterm past 24 rounds Sheffer Xander Rory Hideki ludvig Henley OE morawa the gala Connors those are your best 10 then you got Glover I actually like Glover this week as well maybe he can gain a little bit on the greens and not lose them all like he did at col but Glover hogi Clark SEIU McCarthy dietre Baden mugh and Billy horel a lot for a lot of the uh past not I want to say few years but this used to be a spot for players breakthrough performances we saw that a lot a lot like Quail Hollow was at the same time like this was the site of Coo’s big I can’t remember if he won this or the players first I think this was after this was hideki’s breakout win in 2014 obviously this is by far the biggest win of David lmer career ditto with William mcgurt duffner had the PGA Championship that was sort of his big win you know it was his first win I think in six years or something like that Bryson’s breakthrough win klay’s breakthrough win this’s a big win for John ROM he had done it at Tory Pines as well but ROM was 20 to1 that year he had fallen down the board people were the way the people talked about John ROM he had not won a major to that point he was kind of getting the Xander treatment a little bit like can this guy actually just win big events like he fluked out and won at Tory Pines he could only one in California and then all of a sudden the floodgates broke open then you know there was a discussion is any could anyone even ever be better than John ROM hasbin funny how that narrative shifts pretty quickly on Players let’s go to Memorial see how we did new for 2023 and again if you always want to check in on the live core stats you can do that uh you just have to click on the field that you’re looking at so if you want to go check out the Canadian Open live stats in real time you can do that under the live stats feed but you need to be on the Canadian open and if you come back during the memorial you need to be on Memorial so past 24 rounds how does this look Sheffer big shocker on that one what do we have weighted in here anyway should probably take a look at that off the T8 approach 25 10% for those long power fours sand saves Tanner around the green 10 power fives 5% proximity 200 proximity 175 to 200 5 and seven greens and regulation gain then putting 5 to 10 10 to 15 ft 55 so a lot of approach stats on here I do want to throw driving accuracy into this mix just to see what’s going on and the one good thing I like about the sliders as opposed to the old you have to punch in all your numbers I just want to see where the I want to wait this I want to wait approach more I’m going to bring it down a little bit to be more than Fairways gain I’m going make Fairways gained about second on that list yeah I’ll make that 13 make approach 19 just we had a lot of a lot of approach numbers I’m going to erase off the tea and read it here at the bottom just so I can see off the te and Fairways gain next to each other because those two things go hand inand as one bleeds into the other so we can see what it is so past 24 rounds Scotty Sheffer ranks number one Xander Hideki ludvig Henley okay how is Henley played here historically we can take a look at that I going to close out some tabs here at the top so the entire thing doesn’t freeze on me Russell Henley at the memoral putts better on Bermuda this we know 16th a year ago 29th 33rd and 6th every second years tends to gain Strokes versus loses Strokes on approach you think he’d be better driving the ball because he’s been a little bit better this year has some pretty good performances recently not that you’d never notice the approach has been excellent the putting has been kind of mediocre to tell you the truth but we know he has those Spike putting rounds in him and has weirdly played some of the longer courses better this year you would think of him as I always call it the Russell Henley swing Honda Sony Colonial like those type of places Windom but he’s played well at Quail Hollow long course Valhalla long Course beill Long course pretty well Genesis long course so not the craziest thing start thinking about Russell Henley here this week we’ll see how he’s done distance and accuracy versus the field dude hits Fairways all the time Riv is the only spot where he’s lost on Fairways in like the past three years it looks like so he’s going to be playing from the spot where you want to be playing from in the middle of the Fairway let’s throw put the nice star next to Henley’s name I didn’t expect to see him up there so highly the glove I had made mention of the glove earlier he is up there in the overall rankings for this course number seven Rory OE SEIU there’s SEIU Bez Lowry and Hodges Hodes number 13 like that’s ahead of hogi and feno and sunj I did mention that bad putters can have a lot of success here maybe that’s something that can go hand inand morawa ranks number six because he is number one in Fairways gain number six off the tea terrible out of the sand terrible with the short putts but everything else is starting to look like morawa over the past 24 rounds rates 49th in Strokes gained approach however if we take a look at Colin morawa Charles Schwab PGA Championship back-to-back t4s gaining on approach and that was after being bad objectively bad on a pro Trum one of the best iron players on the planet maybe he has figured out what his flaws were coming in like he sets up great for Pinehurst he sets up great for this course you can play the double you can play the US Open Memorial double this week next week for Colin moraa as long as this keeps up this around the green and putting I mean listen he’s not going to gain three and a half Strokes every tournament but he’s putting well right now the around the green I don’t know what’s happened to him but he’s figured that part out he’s one of a few players who has top 10 at both major championships so far this season and he’s gaining so much off that he’s added distance and he’s still the most accurate player in the field and then all of the sudden these irons have come out of nowhere so let’s trick down the size past 12 I bet you morawa moves up he might be number two or number one he’s number five he moves up one spot that was it because the sand saves are still bad the putting from 5 to 10 ft remains unchanged but he jumps from 49th to 21st in Strokes gained approach and if we shrink it to eight rounds I bet you it looks even better for morawa so the closer we get to now the better it is for morawa you you always wonder he goes from six to three so pass eight rounds overall Xander Rory Colin Sheffer Rose former winner Keegan is up there as well I mean Keegan’s had two pretty nice runs I’ve bet on him the past two times that he’s played um listen he came second at Colonial he had no chance to win at Colonial PGA Championship if he had just puted better the first few rounds like I think he let everyone off the tea his off the tea game has been sparkling each of the past two events averaging over six Strokes per event in the past two the irons just never showed up at Colonial but although he did Putt and ship pretty well how how has he done on these greens over the years actually fairly decent can’t hit his irons here really cannot chip at this course although we’ve seen him again at Firestone is one where he’s played pretty well let’s take a look at his driving and accuracy I assume with the way that he’s gaining right now that he’s doing it pretty well yeah he’s hitting after a a lapse in the middle of the Season where he lost his accuracy he has gotten it back and the results have followed so depending on where these guys sit on the board like are we going to get Henley at 40 to1 maybe because he has been pretty valued he’s been valued in that range at Signature Events so far the season although Keegan’s been way back Keegan’s been I don’t know 80 to1 90 to1 in a lot of these bigger end tournaments hell he was 275 at the PGA Championship wouldn’t expect to see that this week but this is a type of tournament where he can be relatively competitive I would say Seb straa as well you see Seb straa ranks 11th in this category we can take go take a look at se he was bad at the PGA Championship but has three top 10 finishes at three other events sandwiched around it he was another one who you know played pretty well I think until Sunday at Memorial he came 16th he gained seven strokes on approach last year gained 1.5 on the greens has gained on The Greens at Memorial in three of the past four years cannot chip at this course to save his life whatever but we take a look at straa yeah he was a 7 7375 cuz I saw his name near the top of the leaderboard through three rounds that he just kind of went away and fell down to 16th so he’s another one uh as long as they can battle these guys at the very top of the board I could see it happening but as you can kind of hear I mean I have a little bit of a cold you can hear that in my voice but straka Hodes stren Hodges from the bottom with Glover and sewo and Henley Keegan from the middle morawa at the top is kind of where my preference lies so far this week you know you have to kind of fade cheffer actually making a putter two should probably take a look into what we saw from Strokes Gandy year ago just see you can see it visualized in front of you it’s just so funny to see like CL this is the midst of the the sky eight and a half Strokes buting is what he lost and he missed the playoff by a stroke last year everyone else gaining a ton of Strokes everywhere see we lost on The Greens but see who’s T to Green 20.8 Strokes gain T to Green for Scotty Sheffer minus 8.5 the gap between Scotty and SEIU the third and fourth place finishers and ROM ROM was also incredibly bad on the greens last year he gained he was third gained 11.5 Strokes Tia green lost 5.2 on the greens uh spe and luk list were four and five in terms of Strokes gain T green Ron was like neutral around the greens but this was Scotty this was the ultimate Scotty ROM week where both of them just couldn’t putt we could have had an amazing clash of the two best players in the world at the time going at it many would say probably still the two best players in the world right now hey Russell Henley and St straa seven 6.4 there’s shank and Shane low and Thomas dietry so dietry couldn’t drive couldn’t putt last year but you know I’ve mentioned his name two or three times already and you can see fourth place at the PGA Championship uh and actually gained inside the top 10 on approach in his Deb at this course I don’t know if his debut in his course was it the debut yeah in his debut he came 48th like that’s not good but 4.2 Strokes on approach is pretty good in a year where that played a little bit probably more difficult than we’re going to see only because when you compare it to the other scores that we’ve seen over the years that you know minus 7 is the highest score that we’ve seen since 2013 at least from what I’m looking at youus 13- 13 – 9 – 19 – 15 you can go low on these sces with the proper conditions if it doesn’t get completely burnt out like it was last year there’s been more rain in Ohio in May than the average per year so maybe it plays a little bit softer H and you don’t get as much firman fast and you do see something more like Valhalla where you end up with a minus5 to minus 18 type winner I don’t know how much that skews how you want to look at things I just thought that was an interesting note when I was looking at the weather and what the weather has been like coming up to this year’s Memorial Tournament last thing to look at before we get you out of here is going to be the Jack Nicholas courses we’ll look past I know 12 rounds and we’ll look per round at Nicholas courses just to see if there’s anyone randomly who pops up Nicholas design architect down here on the bottom left and let’s take a look per round scoring we’ll go to average P 12 best player morawa Sheffer havland Xander Eric Cole obviously other connection between Valla and Memorial both Jack Nicholas designs uh so what courses are we looking at here Glenn Abbey mirfield Village for workday and this one Nicholas tournament course at PGA West PGA National PGA West Nicholas the concession Golf Club where morawa won and Valhalla GC obviously where Xander shafley has won Eric Cole pretty good on those courses uh in over his past 12 rounds you see Lee Hodges also very good let’s see other courses those are PGA Championship AMX Memorial and Honda uh constitute his 12 rounds at this tournament after that so Hodges and SEIU from the bottom end along with Eric Cole although Eric Cole seems like he’s a different player at this point from maybe when he played more of those courses it’s been a bad go he missed the cut again this week in Hamilton he hasn’t finished better than t21 since Bay Hill with a ton of miscuts in that mix maybe he can putt his way into it who knows it’s just not looking that way Henley dietre Keegan benan boom there’s the pocket of players that I like and they all play pretty well you can see on a Strokes game total basis on Jack Nicholas corses and that even includes Thomas dri’s like 10 putt on whatever that hole was at the Honda earlier this year putam had a top 10 at this course last year you can see he plays them pretty well Denny lost in the playoff has a top five this has been a course where he’s putt very very well throughout the course of his career Burns Bez all kind of up there I thought that was interesting that a lot of the guys that I’ve been circling around already ended up inside the top 20 when we just look at Jack courses overall but that will do it on the pat Mayo experience no need again to guess the odds this week I can try to do that very quickly for you if you like uh Scotty three and a half to one Rory I mean if Rory ends up winning in Canada somehow he’s going to end up like six to one we’ll say seven to one for Rory Xander 10 to one Klay morawa spe maybe ludvig right around 18 to 22 to1 and then you’re going to have your max homas should be Windam Clark Patrick Klay all those guys will be kind of in your 25 to 35 range but then you’ll also get benan and Henley and you know random other dudes that pop up in there as well havland will probably be 20 to one so if you want to look down the board a little bit and try to catch an opener I would be looking for again at the top end if you can get a number bigger than 20 on morawa I would say bet it then you have Lee Hodges at the very bottom along with I really wish I had made better a good thing I’ve made some of these notes next to the players names dri dri Lee Hodges is kind of like your bums down at the bottom along with Keegan Henley SEIU Ben and Keegan Bradley Lucas Glover was another one to potentially be taking a look at here uh I just like how their games fit this course they come in at larger numbers I would expect some of those guys to get back bet down uh very quickly from when you see the opening numbers all right smash a like while you’re here fantasy national.com Mayo hopefully one hopefully it’s Aaron Ryan can make a huge comeback Sunday at the Canadian open wouldn’t that be nice for a big payday but for anyone who has Bobby Ma I’m not going to cheer against you unless Aaron Ry gets himself into the mix so good luck with everything smash a like fantasy national.com Cod mayo and Underdog fantasy right now to get yourself a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks if you sub to the free newsletter and you got the th the Tuesday edition you got yourself a six to1 winner on Underdog that was in there my first first instincts of the week were right I deviated from that and lost my next two so that was no fun the first one that we had the free one in the newsletter big winner this week the Cod Mayo Underdog fantasy all right I’m Pat Mayo thanks for watching I’ll see you next time P Mayo experience