Recapping the First 1/3 of the Season

Zach, Nick, and Bob break down the 2024 season so far as we approach the 33% complete mark.

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[Music] welcome to Orioles on the verds this is Zach sped joined as always by Bob faen and Nick Stevens and we have a lot to get into on this episode of Orioles on the verge is we’re going to break down the first one-third of the season the Orioles now 54 games into their season sitting at 35 and 19 playing very good baseball and we’re going to break down what has gone right where they could improve and where we see things going the rest of the way as we approach the month of June but first or on the verge is brought to you by bet online bet online is your number one source for all summer Sports this season from MLB golf NBA and NHL Playoff stats every stat every match up in even live odds while the games are being played when the game’s over head on over to our online casino and get in on a game of blackjack or poker online with one of our over 150 slot games head to the website today to get in on the action don’t forget to use a promo code believe B A V for your 50% welcome bonus on your first deposit bet online the game starts here so as I mentioned the Orioles 35 and9 after their first 54 games playing very good baseball right now they have two MVP can it’s the top of their order and gunar Henderson and adley Rutman performing as expected Gunner hitting a grand slam in Wednesday night’s game against the Red Sox to Clint a series victory that game also featured Corbin burns on the mountain so far he’s delivering as the top of the rotation ace at the or expected when they acquired him you also have Jordan Westberg Colton cowser among other hitters in this very productive lineup having good Seasons there have been some blemishes along the way though the bullpen has been up and down they’ve the Oriol have also experienced their fair share of starting pitching injuries to this point in the season but are getting by and we’re going to look at all of that in this episode but Bob I’ll start with you just kind of give us your general thoughts on the Orioles as they’re now hit the one-third mark yeah it’s it’s kind of interesting 35 and 19 on Pace for like oh exactly 105 wins um not in first place kind of reminiscent of last year when Tampa Bay was like four games up on us about this time I think the Yankees are around two maybe one I think it depends on their game today and I just feel like we’re not we haven’t played our best baseball especially on offense I think once the offense really gets clicking and by then I’m sure the pitching will probably slip a little bit it it’s always a balance but I just feel like the lineup has been led by gunar Henderson adley Rutman Jordan Westberg for the most part they’ve been the big guys Rhino hearn’s been really good colon cser’s been good a lot of other guys have been pretty solid as well but those three have really just just spearheaded the the offense it’s been up and down but the starting pitching you just can’t can’t complain I mean haven’t all been healthy at the same time but corpin Burns KY brus Grayson Rodriguez Dean Kramer John means fingers crossed there and uh Cole Irvin just been fantastic even Albert Suarez come in made four starts has a 1.53 ER on the season and yeah the bullpen has been shaky but I still feel really confident that by the time September gets here it’s going to be in pretty good shape whether it’s from a trade whether it’s from a promotion from Triple A there are some guys that could help out there we just guys getting fine-tuned as the season goes on and and reaching their Peak uh around the end of the season I’m very confident that this team’s going to flirt with 100 wins once more you guys aren’t on Twitter enough um clearly clearly Zach is not on Twitter um no I I agree despite the the ups and downs and there are there are and we’ll talk a lot about pitching tonight I feel like but I I just want to talk about hitting my general take on this team as far as the hitting’s concerned they have the fourth highest some of the these numbers that I I joted down are before tonight’s game actually uh so they might be skewed by the time people who are uh listening to this later um here but the oros are the fourth highest winning percentage in all the baseball uh 16 and eight on the road and they were 17- seven against teams above 500 which is one of my favorite numbers to look at because some of these other teams that are top of their division even are not that good against really good teams um I just think the football brain mentality is just exhausting like they get swept by St Louis that that wasn’t good that wasn’t fun but they turned around and completely dominated and swept a four game Road sweep against the White Sox and you can downplay that all you want by saying it’s just the White Sox but that’s still four games on the road which is incredibly difficult to do against anybody and I just think offensively again we’ll talk about pitching a lot tonight we’ll get into all that but for me like it’s the hitting like offensively this lineup is again before Wednesday night’s game that’s today right um the ORS are six in WRC plus that’s pretty good Gunner’s playing at an MVP Pace Jordan Westbrook has a 145 WRC plus I don’t think any of us had that expectations the the Jordan Westbrook that we’re watching this year none of us were down on Westburg but I don’t think any of the three of us saw him putting up this kind of season I think he leads Major League Baseball in win probability added as well adley is very quietly having a very good year offensively I don’t think he’s ever going to get the respect he deserves as a hitter to be honest though Colton Cower has been hot he’s been cold but he’s still hitting 23% above League average right now Mullins hasn’t been good this year for the most part but these last couple of games his approach has looked better I think he’s been a little unlucky especially that Tuesday night’s game he’s looked better the approach has looked better the resultes haven’t been there for him the last few games hopefully that Sparks something if it does that’s great um but I think at the end of the year hopefully we look back at Cedric Mullins and say it wasn’t great but overall he had a pretty decent 2024 I think there’s a conversation to be had about Cedric Mullins at the end of this season but not right now and like the Santa and dare Tak are mind numbing according to Twitter he’s one of the worst hitters in all the baseball yet his walk rate is on par for his career average he’s striking out like 4% less than last year he’s still got a 104 WRC plus he’s 77th percentile in withi percentage so he’s making contact it’s just not hard the hard hit rate is down like 10% from his League average where his career average he’s not barely in the baseball he’s a notoriously slow starter as well I think was making him too much good food at the beginning of the season and he just got to work that off at this point you don’t dump a guy who’s been a proven star for you for the last couple of years so when San D starts making better contact this team is gonna take off um and just this whole lineup it’s like Bob said we’re all pacing for 100 wins and I could easily see this team winning 100 win games winning 100 games and we haven’t seen the offense really click together yet oh yeah and hon Kad and Jackson holiday and Kobe May are still in the minor like I feel good yeah if I could even just go off of what you’re saying there Westberg yeah I think for me the surprising thing is the strikeout rate it’s 19.8% under 20% I didn’t see that coming W crate is about where I thought it would be knew he had the power in him I just thought the average would be a little bit lower and he’d be more like 750 Ops rather than over 850 and yeah sand that’s the last person I’m worried about like he’s been about League average yeah he’s B in 204 with the 706 Ops but guess what offense is down all around the league he is a slow starter when the weather heats up this summer he’s gonna lead this team to many victories he’s already he still has nine home runs on the season and we’ve been winning without our proven I guess quote unquote proven but you know guys can slip but you would expect guys like Ryan mountcastle who only has six home runs on the year in 283 with an Ops of 788 that’s perfectly fine but for him to only have six home runs after two months into the season you know that’s not going to continue santand we talked about Mullins yeah he’s struggling there’s no doubt about it but his approach has been better lately and his defense is so good that you’re going to give him many opportunities to to show that he can at least be a 700 725 Ops bat at the bottom of the lineup Ryan o’n he’s bat in 271 with an 802 Ops but I feel like he’s he’s only struck out 10.4% of the time and his walk rate is above League average he hits the ball hard consistently he’s not striking out I feel like his numbers should be better than what they are Jorge Mato he’s been better than you could expect Austin Hayes we know he had a terrible start and he’s done a little bit better since coming off the iil but we know he’s got more anim the plate and Ramon Aras I mean he had a great game tonight I could say that he’s leading in Seager whatever that means um he uh he’s we know he’s a veteran he’s only had let’s see how many plate appearances 64 of bats on the season so it’s really hard to take much away but Kyle Stow is getting a shot like there’s so much upside still left especially on the offense yeah pitching other than a bullpen pitching’s been like as good as you could expect but the hitting I I think we’re GNA be first in the AL in run scored by the end of the year yeah I could see that happening and I just dive into Westberg for a moment because he has been really impressive to me this year the strikeout rate is down quite a bit and the walk rate is up slightly from where it was last year but the key has been that he is hitting the ball really hard on Tuesday night’s broadcast Jeff Arnold actually had a nice breakdown of how Westberg has shortened his swing a little bit and how that has helped him get to pitches with higher velocity and that has made all the difference in the world and to me this is kind of the Jordan Westberg that I think we could expect a little bit offensively I I don’t know what the Home Run numbers are going to be at the end of the year but you look at the fact right now he’s got an on base percentage at 351 Nick ran off some of the numbers of WRC plus I think right now Westberg has to be in the conversation be an All-Star I just really don’t see any way around it Santander is going to get going Mullins I agree with Nick that his approach has looked better I’m cons the biggest thing that I’m concerned about with him is that when he gets in the slumps it gets really ugly and he especially has bad platoon splits when he gets in the slumps but we know with his speed and his defense he’s gonna have a roster spot all year and gunar adley producing is expected I don’t know that you could ask for a whole lot more than what you you’ve gotten from the lineup to this point but you also know it can get better yeah you talk about Ryan o’n I mean the guy’s got a 134 WRC plus I feel like for his role that he is UN playing out of his mind right now for for his role in the purpose that he’s supposed to serve for this team yeah I just I just keep going back to the hitting I I’m really not concerned at all I know there’s there was a lot of conversation we were talking before we came on how it’s it’s hard to kind of grasp it’s been a week and a half since we recorded like the big things that have happened the big conversations that have happened since we last recorded but I feel like since then there’s a lot of conversation I know Connor lik when Orioles did a whole episode about this there have been articles about this all over the place about you know Orioles and the walks and their approach at the plate and first pitch swinging and all this stuff and how aggressive they’re being you know that can change it’s not going to change overnight but I’m sure they went into this season with that kind of plan that kind of mentality to attack this year and as long as it keeps working they keep winning I don’t see them changing much but if it’s not working they think they can get more out of certain guys they’re dial it back they’re going to adjust as the season goes along it won’t be overnight it’s not like a light switch but like over the next couple of month over the month of June like let’s see where this team ranks offensively in a number of categories but right now they’re near the top of the bigs um and everything I I think it was Jacob Calvin Meyer you know he’s sassy on Twitter um somebody responded to one of his tweets about I can’t I can’t find it now quickly live on air but someone made a smart comment about the team’s performance oh about how this team not carrying or something tonight and Jacob quote tweeted it and I was just like yeah this is how the fans of a team on Pace for 100 wins respond there’s a lot of that on social media right now and I get that’s not maybe uh paints a fair picture of Oriol fan base but it’s still there is so much of that it’s like this team is one of the top three four teams in all baseball specifically offensively and there’s they haven’t even come close to reaching their full potential this year so it’s like I can’t help but be extremely excited even if there are as we dive into the pitching maybe some holes and some worries there offensively I just I feel too good about this team yeah and last thing on the offense before we we switch gears here you you mentioned it in the minor leagues we have Jackson holiday who has made adjustments clearly and they are working despite you know he went on a little bit of a slump for batting average but walking a ton hitting for power still he’s got a 900 Ops he’ll be ready to come back up soon if they need him hon kurad he came up didn’t get much playing time went back down just continued to mash like he has been he’s batting 350 with an 1150 Ops Kobe Mayo his ribs are going to heal he’ll be fine in a couple weeks and he’s got an Ops approaching a thousand down there he’s about ready Conor Norby he’s having the best season of his career so far Ops around 900 I mean if you really needed it you bring one two three of those guys up and and you don’t miss a beat so yeah the hitting will be fine and we’re just gonna keep going U it’s clearly it’s been too long since we recorded um and somebody mentioned Kyle Stowers earlier like I just want to give him a quick shout out I I’ve seen some conversation as well like oh is is St breaking out should he get more run over you know a haze or son D I don’t think so I think star you’re seeing Kyle star perform exactly what we talked about coming into this year and at the beginning of the Season we talked about this in detail numerous times I feel like star is really really good valuable depth to keep in your organization when so many people are like we need to just trade them it’s kind of the same conversation like so many people want to have about hon Kad right now although kad’s I think a much better overall player against stars but still it’s like oh star is just wa we wasting him away in the minor leagues he deserves a shot elsewhere just trade him just trade him this is why you keep that depth this why you keep those guys because look what star has done over this past week or so in the big leagues he’s been immensely valuable to this lineup and helping produce some wins and I I don’t think that it’s I I don’t think that star is going to magically become a guy who pushes for the full-time right field job next year if and when sanir leaves walks in free agency but he’s on a run right now uh and it’s it’s awesome to see him honestly fulfill this role but this is why you keep this depth this is why Connor Norby is still in the organization because what if you need Norby and he can do the same thing for three weeks for you it’s it’s clicking right now so I like it Billy cooking let’s shift over to the pitching staff now um the Orioles going into spring training before we knew that Kyle bratus and John means had injury setbacks looked like they had a fiveman r quotation the Corbin Burns Grayson Rodriguez Kyle bratus John means and Dean Kramer well what has happened since then is that all of them except for burns have spent some time on the iil Tyler Wells who entered the rotation out of Camp is on the iil now so they’ve had the starting rotation sustain some injuries and then the bull patent has been spotty and that could perhaps be charitable given some of the ups and downs we’ve seen from them this year and right now we’re in a little bit of a situation where they can’t seem to get everybody in the hot in the bullpen at once Craig Kimbrell had his struggles he seems to be settling down now Dylan Tate looked a little rocky in the beginning but has looked much better since being recall from norfol meanwhile Keegan Aken who got off to a very good start this season has struggled a little bit of late yenier Canó has had some ups and downs so the bullpen has not been the lock down force that it was at times last year when you had Canó as an All-Star Bautista on the back end Danny colom who has been pretty good this year putting together a surprising season and despite that I’m gonna throw out this little trivia question here what do you think the Orioles record was 54 games in the last season I’m gonna guess wor than it was this year I was gonna say uh 34 and 20 that’s correct Bob 34 and 20 so with a much better Bullpen but not as good of a lineup and a worse pitching staff the or were one game worse than they are this at this time this year yeah but we did have Adam Fraser so I mean that’s right so yeah no you’re right um the bullpen I think it’s going to be fine we’re it’s all year unless we trade for Ryan Hesley or people who we’ve talked about in the past around the trade deadline we’re not going to have a Felix Bautista to close out game so that’s always going to be a little more nerve-wracking this year than it was the last year or two but I think by the end of the year they’ll figure out the bullpen Danny kulum and Canó I like them seventh eighth inning I think Dylan Tate looks back his velocity is up since they sent him down to Triple A he gave up two seeing eye singles tonight but I mean he looks sharp to me I expect him to hopefully continue that uh Jacob Webb he’s up and down but he’s decent and I think there’s guys in triaa that can really help the team and I hope they get a chance to uh to get to prove themselves in that regard stick around for the second episode of this week if you want to hear more about that yeah I mean with the bullpen I guess this is where I do I don’t think it’s as dire as many want to make it out to be it’s still like statistically speaking depending on what stat you’re looking at it’s middle of the pack as far as the MLB it’s a lot of 14 to 16th to 17th range in baseball in a lot of different categories so and I think some of the issues are a bit exaggerated because of the lineup some nights when that lineup is not clicking and it is a close game um you know you make one mistake it’s yeah like Keegan Aken gives up a home run he leaves a pitch hanging it goes over the fence like that mistake is exaggerated not trying to make excuses for Keegan aen because he has hasn’t been that great this last couple times out but still I think some of that if this lineup was hitting a little bit more consistently you wouldn’t be as concerned but you know I think for the next couple of weeks at least you can piece this together like Tate like you guys mentioned hopefully he continues to pitch well he pitched well again tonight another shut out inning to close out the game against Boston maybe Vieira gives you a little something or you just continue to I if we want to open that can of worms um say you want to touch that hot let’s do it uh or we continue to like or what we saw from him is his debut outing which was was awful um if that’s going to be who he is you just keep churning and burning that last Bullpen spot like that’s what literally every team in baseball does keep trying to find that guy who is going to give you some value and you know maybe it is one of these guys that we’re going to talk about later on down in Triple A who gives you a spot a start or not a start but a stretch of productivity there’s like three guys maybe four that can identify guys that you bring them up you put them on the 40 man you bring them up you give them a week you give them two three outings if it’s not working you DFA them and let them go on their way they someone else will claim them or whatever um if they pass through waivers and come back to norick fine and dandy like you know if Corbin Martin gets claimed by another team because he sucked after but he sucks at two times you let him pitch when you bring him up and try him out oh well um maybe one of those guys clicks for you I still think I want to see Chase McDermot go the DL hall route at the trade deadline by the end of the year I think you just bring him up in the bullpen roll and let him eat for an inning or two but I mean I I don’t know about you guys but I do if I look ahead to the playoffs though it’s only it’s still only May so we are still looking ahead a little up here but if I look ahead to the playoffs like the bullpen does scare me like I think this is where you really have to push your chips in though like I wouldn’t mind a trade for a starter like a jack flarity Type move obviously someone who performs much better than Jack flarity but someone who you maybe trade some of these rule five eligible guys uh to land you a backend starter who can help you the last two months of the year but then you’ve got Connor Norby sitting there you use him package him for you know a bullpen arm you find some sort of package there’s a crowded Outfield uh especially with prospects you package some of these guys to get a bullpen arm I’m never like Pro big contract or Pro give money to a relever even Felix Batista but I am Pro like make the big move at the deadline overpay a little bit if you have to at the deadline to solidify that Bullpen for the playoffs because that’s a unique animal you need a dominant Bullpen and for right now the end of May early June I’m fine with like Tate Canó Kimbrell as like a 789 but I already have high blood pressure and if I have to watch that in like the seventh eighth ninth inning of a game seven of a you know playoff series I might die so like the bullpen does concern me if I think ahead for right now I think it’s fine but I have a lot of confidence that we’re going to see some big moves over the next couple of weeks yeah if I could clarify my position I only feel confident about how it’s going to look in the end because I think they’re going to trade for at least one or two like high leverage arms at the deadline and yeah for now like you said you turn and burn that last spot how do you think we’ve gotten sio Perez and all these guys who have worked out well for us like Thiago Vera right now you give him a week or two doesn’t work DFA you bring up uh Matt crook or whoever you just you keep doing it and if one of them clicks someone else is now the new bottom of the bullpen and you you do that until you figure out what you got on your hands and uh yeah I just think by the end of the season it’ll it’ll turn out okay if if we were going into the playoffs tomorrow yeah it would be very scary just generally speaking think every contending team needs Bullpen help is trade deadline because even if you go into the allstar break with a strong Bullpen you know there’s a certain volatility to that and that’s why bad teams will put their relievers out at the deadline because it becomes a sellers Market they think they can get something for them and a lot of times they do and for the state of the bullpen this year no it is a big concern for me a couple of points I will make though just to kind of counter some anxiety that might be out there is that number one I think the Oakland series put the bullpen under a microscope because at the beginning in the year the Orioles Orioles fans probably saw Oakland coming in early in the year and thought that’s a sweep well the a to their credit a little bit better team than we expected going into this year and the Orioles Bullpen Craig Kimbrell blows two leads in that series and what should have been a sweep ends up being a series loss at home which is a tough one so I think that that put the bullpen under a microscope and while it is true that the Orioles Bullpen maybe was more dominant at the back end last year there were some rough patches along the way and I’m going to throw out some names of guys who got Innings last year that I think now a lot of fans have forgotten were on the team or might have forgotten they had more than one outing Michael given Logan gaspi Austin V uh Jorge Lopez Joey krael Reed Garrett Chris Valmont got an appearance last year I don’t think anybody remembers that but Chris vont got an appearance last year you have to cycle through a lot of arms to get through a season and the Orioles are in that spot right now where you’re probably gonna see some guys like Matt crook get Major League Innings this year because you need the help Corbin Martin probably gonna get Major League Innings and I know that it’s not always going to be easy and I think we saw that with Diego or thg Vieira on Monday but you kind of got to throw what you have against the wall to see what sticks sometimes because you know your Bullpen from start to finish is not always going to hold up you’re GNA have some rough passes and until you can figure out exactly what you need I think that you’ve got to be willing to cycle through some arms I mean the Dodgers also you said Chris Valmont the Dodgers just signed Chris Valmont uh so I imagine they may be giving him a shot as well so even the Dodgers are potentially going to give Chris Valmont a shot at some point this year yeah we’re going to see a lot more names come through you’re going to see a lot of waiver claims I feel like you’re going probably going to see a couple of trades for cash considerations or some low-level prospects or something as well over the next couple of weeks before hopefully some bigger ones at the trade deadline it’s like I said you can piece this together now even with the injuries and if you’re taking a guy like uh if you’re keeping Irving in the rotation if you have to take Suarez at the rotation for an extended period of time I still think this Bullpen is going to be in a good spot more nights uh than not and so it’s that is that is the one part of this this roster though that does concern me that I’m like if you’re gonna make a big trade if you’re going to part with some of this Talent down in the farm system I’m okay with spending up uh when Once the trade deadlines approaches for these guys because I think that could be you solidify this Bullpen you feel good about the eight nth inning um this in if this lineup does start clicking I I don’t see how this team like well there are many reasons many ways they won’t but I feel a lot more confident in this team like seriously competing for a World Series this year agree I think that it’s a good time to step back here and look at K poas and Chase McDermot specifically Nick just mentioned you want to see McDermot in a he wants to see mcder in a bullpen role later in the year and I agree with with that povitz I think the Orioles are eyeing that somewhat long-term opening in the rotation for him to get his first look but it feels imminent that as long as these guys stay healthy they’re going to get big league Innings this year so Bob I’ll start with you how soon could we see either one of those guys and what are their ultimate roles in the majors this year I think strad is more likely to be in the middle of the Season say June to July even August I think mcder they’re going to want to keep him as a starter until September at least I mean I would love to see them like Nick said just let him run it out that could be the Felix Bautista honestly if you give him September to get used to the role I mean his stuff is that good if you want to just you know if he’s hit the Innings you want him to hit as a starter because that’s probably still what you want him to focus on long term but if he could just focus on one inning at a time and let it eat and just let that fast ball play up that’s electric but I don’t think they will do that till September meanwhile Kate strad who we knew him as like a guy that could maybe touch triple digits with the fast ball but no idea where it’s going now he’s kind of eliminated the four team fast ball from his repertoire going sweeper cutter change up heavy and it’s working he’s only walked two or three batters all year and he had one bad outing for triple North which has inflated his numbers because of short sample size but I think he looks fantastic and I think honestly they DF Caleb ort there’s an open spot if they think that Stroud’s ready I don’t think it matters what his ER in Triple A looks like I I think it could be is possible he could be activated on Friday on the major league roster but I think he’ll be up at some point over the next couple months to get a shot yeah I just see like mcder you say all right you got 20 Innings left we you’re going to throw 20 more Innings this year let’s bring it up to the major leagues and you’re going to give us those 20 Innings one inning at a time in the major leagues um I could see that I’m fine with with not using him as a starter in the major leagues this year poic on the other hand if I’m just looking at those two guys I do agree with Stroud Stroud’s out pitching his um or Stroud is pitching much better than any of his statline show right now but poic is the one guy that I I don’t know I don’t I don’t know how you guys feel about this like your your confidence meter with bringing up Kade Povich in the next you know two three weeks or something like I the numbers look so good he’s throwing the ball in the zone more he’s getting results the Home Run rate is like he’s halfed it the walk rate is down I got walk perine and case perine I hate that um the walk rate was 14 almost 15% last year in Triple A it’s down to below 9% Triple A he I don’t know where he ranks in all of minor league baseball him and McDermot were onew in strikeouts in all of minor league baseball like a week ago but he’s striking out 33% of guys in Triple A right now opponents are hitting 194 against him like I I think he’s I think he’s really really close to come up to the big leagues especially if means is going to be out for an extended period of time I think while you’ve got the opportunity to keep swz up there and you’ve got this rotation the way it is having sorz is a good fallback option I think it’s pretty solid you let Cade come up and get some run and see what he can do and if if it’s not good you send him back down to Triple A you move Suarez back into the rotation it’s no harm no foul Povich gets to learn from that we talked about this a million times these rookies that come up they’re going to get exposed they’re going to struggle Grayson did it as well Grayson went back down I’m not saying PO is gonna return and be Grayson 2.0 but he’s got more film more data to look at more experience to draw from to go back to Triple A and work on that and maybe we see him again at the end of the year but I don’t I kind of like to see him get some run sometime this month yeah I agree I mean Kramer he’s already throwing again I’m I’m pretty sure he’s already pretty much healthy they’re just going to wait until the time is up so maybe he misses two more turns through the rotation I’d love to see poic get those two turns even if it’s a guarantee that when Kramer’s back he goes back down to the minor leagues just like you said I think let him get it out of the way the major league debut you know take whatever you can from from that and honestly if he just lights it up starts on fire then you figure it out that’s a good problem to have so yeah I was hoping poic got the call when Suarez got the spot start but you know there’s still time to give him a start or two before Kramer gets back yeah there’s going to be an opportunity there I looking at it from a couple of different perspectives regardless of what the approach is you need to do what is best for his development uh whether that’s bringing him up for a start or two let him get his feet wet and then send him back down or handle it more the way you would handle a position player which is you know Z means is going to be out for a while there’s a long-term opening let poit settle into the rotation and pits well and I’m glad that Nick brought up Suarez because he’s one of the guys along with Cole Irvin that I think allows you to take a risk that at the beginning of the Season you might not have thought you could take which is what if Kade pitz does struggle through three or four turns through the rotation right now you’ve got four other starters that can help pick him up not to mention a possible long man likely Suarez to pick up some Innings the Orioles can afford to take that risk but what I’ll throw this out just as a question here is is that good for his development yeah it’s it’s tough because obvious obviously we’re not there like in the clubhouse we don’t know his mentality we don’t have the better understanding of the underlying data as well I’m just looking at the schedule real quick and I mean you look at the month of June it’s a lot of divisional games it’s the raids it’s the Blue Jays it’s the Rays again then it’s the Braves then it’s the lot of days off either yeah no days off Yankees Astros Guardians Rangers I mean it’s a lot of that’s an that’s gonna be an important stretch with yeah one day off next month that’s it the 17th um I don’t know like that’s that’s another thing to consider you want to throw him in there against I know Ronald aunia like that’s heartbreaking um but it’s still it’s still a really good Atlanta lineup do you want to throw him in an Atlanta lineup or a Phillies lineup at home I I don’t do you throw him against up against the Yankees um I I don’t know that’s a tough to Ash Ros are I don’t know exactly how well they’re playing I feel like they’re playing much better now but that’s a dangerous lineup that can just explode any night they they want to it’s I don’t know that’s a tough question it’s going to be tricky this month I want to see come up there could be some opportunities but it is some pretty important games stretch of games coming up this month I think you do it and obviously I mean it’s up to them to determine if it’s the right thing to do but for me even if he gets hit even if he gets lit up let him get a taste of that and let him chase that Dragon I got to get back I got to get better you know I think it’s it’s helped bradish and Grayson when they first came up to have that competitive drive when they go back down so I don’t see how much could hurt but obviously I’m not an expert in this field I’ll just wrap up here um with this question we’re now a third of the way into the season Nick you were actually not on the air when we did our prediction so preseason how does the rest of the regular season turn out for the Orioles good question I I don’t I just think this offense is going to uh consistently and together at some point over the next couple of weeks the weather’s getting warmer you got your playing in some favorable ballparks you’re playing against AL East competition that the Orioles have the AL East versus AL East the Orioles are Kings right now the ORS are also good on the road like I mentioned earlier they’re good against teams above 500 they’ve played the Yankees well and the Yankees are only one game ahead of Baltimore right now I I think just this month alone you’ve got in the month of June with all these divisional games you’ve got a chance to make a big statement and hopefully they do that and the rest of the way you win 100 plus games and I think you take the AL East I just I don’t have a lot of confidence in this Yankees team to hold up the way they have the pitching has been tremendous you got to give the Yankees all the credit in the world for what they’re doing right now judge has turned it around the pitching staff has been phenomenal Garrett Cole is coming back I think in a couple of weeks I still just don’t have faith that that team can hold up and if they do then it’s going to be one hell of a last last month or two of the Season Yankees Orioles it’s going to be fun um I think we’re gonna see a lot of high-scoring games you’re gonna see a lot of dramatic Gunner home runs and you know what honestly like let the Yankees stay healthy let Garett Cole come back and shove and let’s see Yankees Orioles down to the wire this year I’m I’m down for it yeah I believe we play them the second to last series of the season so that should be anxiety inducing and uh yeah I agree I think we will cross 100 wins again I’ll say 103 and I’ll say we we take the East and yeah I think we’ll clear the east by five games by the time the season ends and again if the Yankees can keep it up hats off to them but like Nick I just I can’t see them continuing this pace I don’t think their lineup is that scary outside of two of the best hitters in Major League Baseball but um yeah I think we take the East and I think Orioles fans aren’t happy till we win a World Series but they’re as happy as they could be after a regular season I said the Orioles were going to win the AL East before the season started and I will stick with that and with that that does it for this episode of Orioles on the vers we will be back later this week to talk minor league pitching there were a lot of promotions in the month of May and we’re going to look at that but we’re also going to look at some of the longer term implications such as rule five eligibility and how some of these pictures might or might not be used in trades when the trade deadline rolls around in a few months and there’s also some guys that could be solutions for the major league team that we’re going to cover as well so you’re not going to want to miss that in the meantime you can find us on our many social media channels including Facebook Instagram threads X Tik Tock and YouTube we’re also over at substack Oriol on the birds. substack programming note our monthly update to our top 50 prospects list is probably going to drop within the next week or so and that is available exclusively to members of our patreon community if you’re not a member of our patreon community yet head over and sign up as a paying member you can join for as little as $3 a month and at the five and $10 levels have access to bonus daily coverage from Bob Nick and myself for Bob fail and Nick Stevens this is Zack Spen you’ve been listening to Orioles on the vers presented by bet online and part of the believe podcast Network welcome to Orioles on the vers this is Zach sped wi is always by Bob failen and Nick Stevens and on tonight’s episode we’re going to break down what was a very busy month of May in terms of pitcher promotions in the Orioles farm system several of their top prospects as well as some guys that are pussing the major leagues received a call up to the next level we’re going to break down not just what that has meant in the short run but what it could mean for the rest of the season and possibly the off season as several of these pitchers are rule five eligible we’re also going to shout out players outside the top 30 portion of our top 50 prospects list for their performances later on in this episode but first or on the vers is brought to you by bet online bet online is their number one source for the NBA and NHL playoffs this season every stat every match up and even live odds while the games are being played when the game’s over head on over to our online casino and get in on a game of blackjack or poker or unwind with one of our over 150 slots games head to the website today to get in on the accent don’t forget to use promo code believe B A V for your 50% welcome bonus on your first deposit bet online the game starts here and now as I thought about the top of the episode we’ll break down some of the pitcher promotions we have seen over the last few weeks and really if you want to go back into the end of April is when this trend started when Cameron Weston got the bump up from abery to Buie after an excellent run there but we’ve seen several others more recently including Luis De Leon who is emerging as one of the top pitching prospects in the Orioles farm system going from Del Marva to Aberdine Trey M go after a very good start to the season in Buy’s Bullpen received a promotion of Triple A norfol Kate strad who also had a dominant run at Buie was promoted to Triple A as well and Brandon young who recently got a pretty big shoutout from Eric longenhagen over at fangraphs after an excellent stretch of buoy in their rotation beginning the season was promoted to Triple A and young is one of the more intriguing guys we’re going to talk about tonight because not only has this stuff looked as good if not better than it has at any point in his career not only is he getting honorable Menon on the top 100 prospects list from a major outlet but he has rule five eligible this off season and now that he’s on the cusp of the majors at Triple A he is one of the guys that the orol are going to have to make a decision about in the coming months and that could mean that he’s protected with a 40-man roster spot either during the season or in the offseason maybe they make him a trade piece or they just wait and see how things play out the rest of the way so Nick I’ll start with you there’s a lot to unpack here but let’s just start with Young’s performance so far this season he’s a guy that we’ve been high on for a while but unfortunately injuries have limited him over the last couple of years this has been his first fully healthy year in a while and he looks good what are you seeing from him not gonna be one of the trade pieces uh there there are some we’re g talk about that will be I think trade pieces uh one that I don’t want to see him go but I think he makes a lot of sense Brandon young and this is just if anything for more selfish reasons just because like I I’ve said this over and over again and this warms my heart that Brandon young is getting all this love I could have never imagined Brandon young becoming this type of pitcher but he this is one of my guys from the moment I watched him pitch right after the orio sign him as an undrafted free agent after that 2020 draft as like this guy you put him in the bullpen you let him ride through the organization pretty quickly you you’ve got something here but then like no one knew what happened to him he goes in the iil it was April of 2022 and he doesn’t pitch again until June of 2023 and I remember because someone tweeted at us that morning asking like where’s Brandon young and I was like you know what I have no idea I think I texted you guys and I was like do we know anything we haven’t seen a pitch in over a year you’re like nope nobody knows anything and then like 30 minutes later he popped up on won the transaction log Brandon young rehab assignment to the fcl he was back now he’s got a 41% strikeout rate in doublea a sub five% walk rate uh a 4.09 ER but it was a 1.25 FIP and a 1.66 xfip only one home run allowed in Buie and actually it wasn’t in Buie it was while he was in Buie uh but it was actually his first start of the year on the road at was that Colorado that be Harford yeah Hartford um that’s it so he dominated he tamed uh Prince George’s Stadium which is hard to do and now like you mentioned he’s in Triple A Eric longenhagen has him in top 100 consideration I don’t know about you guys but that blew my mind I would have never expected to see Brandon young top 100 consideration like I don’t I don’t know um this Lance Bross dowski and bring that up as well he gave him a really good shout out in his newsletter and in his write up he put some hardcore data behind Brandon Young’s numbers here Brandon Young’s got three pitches that have Stuff Plus above 100 and the slider was at 96 Stuff Plus but the slider he said had Dean Kramer and Grayson Rodriguez shape the V just wasn’t there and if he get the vo up from 84 to 87 and even if it loses some shape that’s a big leag weapon and that gives him four big league weapons with a Stuff Plus over 100 the fast ball 20 Ines of induced vertical break would is Elite level hop and as brzowski noted in his newsletter you don’t see fastball characteristics like that from guys his size and because of that it’s creating it’s Wrecking havoc on hitters they’re not able to hit it at least at Double a level we’ll see what happens when he gets to Triple A he’s got a lot to prove at Triple A still but I just think if he holds this vo he made his tripa debut tonight and was like pump in 95 so if he can hold that vo I think there’s still a lot of developments to go there with him but this is like a it’s like a the pitching version of Joey Ortiz like the all glove no bat guy who suddenly like now look what he’s doing for Milwaukee but he took that covid year down at the alt site and look what the the Joey Ortiz he had the injury the labam injury and now look at the Joey Ortiz we saw return from that Brandon young was had Major League tools but he gets hurt for a year or so comes back and now he’s a top 100 ECT like I don’t know I’m I’m happy for it I hope it pans out and he continues this upward Trend now that he’s in Triple A yeah completely agree and I feel like with all these guys there’s like a few different ways it could go where you either give them a chance this year you put them on the 4E man before this year ends to give them a shot in the majors and see what they have and then you can make a decision later or you you keep them in the in the minor all year and make a decision in offseason or like the Rays typically do you use these guys as your your tra trade chips come the trade deadline maybe in more minor deals than like a you know a guy for a closer a trade for a closer where you’d use someone like Conor Norby probably this would probably be more for a role player but Brandon young for me he’s a guy I’d love to see him get a shot in the majors before the year’s up out of the bullpen I mean just looking at the Orioles 40 man roster you still have Brian Baker on there they just got Caleb ort off of there Jonathan Heasley Corbin Martin like there’s plenty of guys Bruce Zimmerman no offense Rock kabako uh there’s plenty of guys that you know you could make room to give some of these younger maybe you know they don’t have the major league experience that a Brian Baker has but do you want the major league experience Brian Baker has I don’t know um but yeah young he’s been awesome he’s got that I love reading Lance um and I forgot to how to pronounce this nice theme I apologize and I do want to get one this podcast before the season is over but I loved reading like just the the awkward angle for hitters that young has being so tall but having a lower arm slot than he T you typically would see with someone that height and he’s got 95 mile per hour heat yeah I think I think he’s a guy that you could see in Baltimore this year but I even if it’s not this year I’d love to see him added to the 40 man at some point and 2025 maybe is when that happens yeah I agree I I think that we could see him before the season ends even if it is a you know pitch game two of a double header type of situation just because the orals know that if they hold on to Brandon young they’re gonna have to make the move eventually to put him on the 40-man roster and we saw last year was an example of this where if a player’s performance at Triple A warrants it the Orioles will be proactive make that move in season and not wait until the off season and it’s a much different situation because hon Kad had a much higher Prospect stock or higher Prospect status however you want to term it coming into this season than Brandon young coming into last season than Brandon young had coming into this season but I don’t know that a lot of us saw kurur had making the major leagues last year and he did and the Orioles protected him ahead of the off season they could very well do that with young this year I go back last season when young first worked his way back to Buie I thought the stuff especially the fast ball looked good for him coming off an injury but he would have some starts where he wasn’t getting the swings and misses from it and some starts where maybe he was missing the location he didn’t really see that at all during his time at the bay Soxs this year and if he’s able to build on that to Triple A which is as tough if not a tougher adjustment than it has ever been before for pitchers between between the different balls the automatic ball Strike Zone the fact that pitches can be challenged on some nights it’s a tough adjustment but I think he has set himself up to make it even if it’s not right away yeah you saw some of that too just I I watched his first three Innings tonight before he came on the air and then now going with that and then looking at the final block score he still got six strikeouts in what four innings in his triaa debut he did walk Three Guys he struggled to find the Zone a little bit but that’s I mean getting used to the Triple A ball um this is he just got there like two days ago um I think it was a really good first start and to see someone like Eric longenhagen say I don’t if this guy holds his vo all year he might have mid rotation upside like that’s that’s massive um even if he doesn’t reach that and this is at least a guy who could compete for a fifth starter spot next year I think it’s it’s good to see him get to Triple A right now and the guy who maybe we’ll talk about next a certain Lefty that was just promoted to norick as well I think both of getting both of these guys up to Triple A Now is really good to see all right you’ve got a couple of months if you need it but let’s get both of these guys up to Triple A they’re older players get them up to Triple A and let’s see what you got and if maybe it’s it’s okay maybe there’s some promise we’ll trade you uh we we’re we’re going to shop you around and use you to trade piece like Bob was talking about or if you start to show out now the conversation is how do we fit this guy in the major league roster at the end of the year or at least hey with in Brandon Young’s case because it was a shoulder injury I think is what eventually we determined you say hey we’ll see how many innings is gonna throw this year but if you pitch well enough this year like well we’re going to shut you down maybe a little early and you’re not going to get added to the 40 man roster this year but in the offseason we’re going to add you and you’re going to come to spring training in full competition for a rotation spot and we’ll see what happens s from there we’ll see I’d be interested to know how many innings they’re willing to give him though but they’ve they’ve been pretty cautious with him so far up to this year I think just a lot of like three four Innings so we’ll see let’s go over to the pitcher that I think Nick was alluding to and that’s Trey Mel who started this season back a buy and was dominant there in 19-2 thirs Innings posting a 1 183 erra and striking out 24 batters against the six walks he was promoted to Northfolk where he has been pretty effective over two out and with Mel there’s a little bit of History to note here because I’m not sure how many Orioles fans are aware of his full background this point even though he’s been in the system for a couple of Seasons now M go went into the 2022 campaign as a possible option for the Pittsburgh Pirates in their Major League rotation later that summer he was a tripa Indianapolis he had a good track record in the minor leagues up to that point gets off to a good start that season but then is shut down after just eight appearances and ultimately has to undergo Tommy John surgery he’s rule five eligible in the offseason the Orioles get him in the minor league phase and while he didn’t pits until last summer all he has done since he got back on the mound is produced and that includes in the regular season as well as the Arizona fall League last year where he was pretty good and leading up to last year’s rule five draft I think that was really one of the only prospects that we were seriously considering as an option for the Orioles to protect nonetheless the Orioles left him unprotected and fortunately he was not chosen by another team in the rule five draft he’s still in the system and because of the tripa experience because of the fact that he has starter experience he’s a little bit different than some of the prospects that might be in the mix for promotions to make their Major League debut this year so Bob I’ll start with you if you look at M go to this point in the season do you view him as a viable pen option for the major league team later on this year I actually lean no I don’t think it’s impossible because he’s he’s performing well he doesn’t walk many guys strikes him out uh I think this is a guy who I could either see traded or added in the off season just because I look at the lefties in the bullpen and it’s possible Cel Perez maybe gets DFA at one point Dyan not Tate excuse me Keegan Akin gets option down but I I also think there’s two lefties in the norol bullpen who I think will’ll get a shot before migal does um so I don’t think it’s outside of the realm of possibility I just think this is going to be a season used because especially they’ve been using him he’s a starter long term I think they probably see him as a starter he went to the Arizona fall league but he’s been working in much shorter stance one to three Innings and maybe they’ll expand that as the season goes on but I think they have an Innings count uh in mind for him for the season as a whole so I don’t think that will translate exactly to a guy you want you know to rely on on your Bullpen at some point in a competitive season yeah it’s Brandon young trago Kyle brovich I think those three guys specifically and we may or may not talk about brovich more later on but I think those three guys specifically John M’s written about them that they when they three of them were in we other teams are watching and and that I think that’s I think he he talked to somebody in another organization some opposing Scouts and they’re like yeah we got our eyes on this guy we know their rule five eligible I think it’s a it’s a much more unique situation with some of these guys this year because they’re older pitchers but they’re coming off significant injuries shoulder injuries Tommy John surgeries So you you’re going to limit them this year but at the same time you really got to push them and see what they’ve got because these are real options that you could add to the 40-man roster if you leave them unprotected they’re going to get selected in the RO five draft like 100% slam dunk they’re gone or you trade them like Bob said and with M go like I think it’s I’m so high on Brandon young like I just I just know like they’re all the great pieces the fan graphs the Lance article that it’s it’s m go that is actually the guy that the Orioles are super highest on that’s how this always works out I feel like but with M go like he’s fully back from Tommy John surgery he’s not walking guys he gets per to Triple A he’s got seven strikeouts to one walk he’s given up just one run so far and it was a solo home run to like the second batter he faced he’s still pumping 95 from the left side he throws a lot of strikes I I could see him being the guy where the Orioles say like hey look at this we took him in the Min Le F Ro five draft he was coming from Tommy John we built him back up look what he’s doing in Triple A you know he could be a starter for you Let’s Make a Deal I could see him being being moved and that’s that’s a that’s a legitimate Prospect I feel like you’re you’re shopping around yeah imagine from minor league roll five pick to a key part in a trade for a a relever at the deadline maybe like a Conor Norby and Trey mcau for Ryan Hesley let’s go or I mentioned technically last episode if you’re watching live 10 minutes ago uh that you I could see maybe pushing some of those bigger chips in for the bullpen pieces but like Trey Mel I I mentioned let’s get a jack flarity trade 2.0 but for a better version of Jack flarity well who was the Jack player that was Drew ROM and Zack Showalter and Cesar PTO true or false try M go is a better Prospect than Drew ROM I feel like you package him with the right prospects you can get a higher quality arm a guy who can really solidify your rotation or at least be that comfortable sick six seven starter at the major league level for two months like I’m comfortable with moving Trey M go for a proven starter for that you only need for two months even if you leave him off the playoff roster so be it he got you to that point great point I’m of two schools of thought with Mel on one hand I see what you guys were saying I think it could be an e Lucas situation last year where Lucas had performed well but the Orioles had already passed on not protecting him uh in the rule five draft once as they did with M last year and they might be looking ahead and realize there just isn’t any room for him but to a bad team he is an enticing player I don’t think you even necessarily have to be that bad of a team to want Trey M go on your major league roster before the season ends so you dangle him out there even if it’s as a reliever to get something back at the same time though I’m looking at a left-hander who age-wise you know let’s face it if not for the injury he probably made his would have made his major league debut two years ago so you’ve got a left-hander who’s got the stuff to pitch in the Major League sooner rather than later your Bullpen has had a lot of ups and downs this year and not to put too much emphasis on one player but Trey M go could take Keegan Akin’s spot right now it might not work over the course of the season but if aen continues to struggle there’s another Lefty right there and not to mention that Aken has op options you could flipflop to two and I just wonder even though you have Matt crook ahead of Mel because crook has the 40-man roster spot you have Bruce Zimmerman if you want to give someone a longer runway in the major leagues why not make him a go over one of those two guys I mean I mean like like I said it could be MGO the guy the Ori are higher on and Brandon Young with that tremendous upside they’re like hey you know he also has a shoulder thing U we’re going to move him as far as that that piece and you always talk about like this lineup looks to be trending towards just like nine Lefty matchers but it’s not going to be we know that but the pitching like Cole Irvin had a major turnaround you trade for him you bring that Lefty into Camden Yards uh look at the top pitching prospects in this organization right now it’s Kade Povich the Lefty dominating um we I don’t know if we’re going to talk more about Luis Leon but uh could is there an argument that Luis Deon is the second best pitching Prospect in this organization like or could be by the end of the year like that’s a lefty a lot of these pitchers that are starting to really pop are lefties I I don’t know conspiracy theory um it’s yeah I like it m go comes up he’s throwing 95 plus from the left side getting swing and Miss pounding the Zone getting ground balls it’s an enticing option as well at the big leagues right now yeah before we move on to Luis Deon can we play a quick round of uh trade 40 man or not that’s not as catchy as I was thinking um with uh this list of pictures that you gave me before we started Nick is that cool Zack yeah let’s give a little bit of background on that real quick we had a question from The Listener Bobby Jones he wanted to know if we could dig a little bit deeper into the players who are rule five eligible the season specifically the pitchers we’ve touched on Brandon young and Trey M go already but they’re by no means the only pitchers on here and one of them Kade Stout is a guy that was just promoted recently so he fits in to the theme of this episode however this is a really long list and some of the names on here might surprise you Bob take it away all right so I think Brandon young we all think 40 Man uh Miguel it’s like Trader 40 man how about Kyle brovich Who coming back from Tommy John velocity is up I think he learned a new pitch or something too that that article like his walks are a little bit high but that’s to be expected coming back from Tommy John but he looks really good in dou a could be the next guy moved up to Triple A what do you think Nick that’s a tough one just because the walks have bothered me I feel like this year he’s pitching well he’s getting strikeouts he’s got more vo you mentioned that the new they revamped the repertoire I think that’s a tough one I could see him being moved in a deal as well I mean he was the guy again like fangraphs list had him as fangraphs has always been the higher Outlet on um brunovich believing that’s that guy’s got back in rotation potential even as recently as like a couple months ago I think they were writing about brunovich having back of the rotation potential I think that’s a guy who Brandon young has higher upside I think Trey moo I feel like has high upside I like Zach’s point that could he be a major league piece for you right now probably brunovich I feel like it’s just a little bit harder to fit in but he’s got Major League stuff I feel like you probably make a Garrett stalins type trade with brunovich maybe yeah I agree with Nick I bonovitz I look at I’ve always looked at bonovitz as he’s going to be a big leer as long as he stays healthy because he has an out pitch with the knuckle curve ball the velocity increase has been good this year but like Nick said I am concerned about the walks so I think you do see him traded as or is it more of the Garrett Stallings Type move or is he the guy that rounds out a packet that gets you a higher profile starter reliever in return I’m gonna say the walks don’t concern me as much just because like we’ve seen with Seth Johnson as The Year’s gone on the walks have kind of slowed down I think I think he’ll be promoted to Triple A soon I think you know he was always known for good command good control before the injury I think that will get better as the year goes on and the improved Stuff Plus that out pitch that Zach said I think he’ll be added to the 40 man before the season is over and Pitch Out of the Orioles Bullpen that’s that’s what I’ll say how about cage stad who we oh go ahead I was gonna say with brovich it’s we’ve seen all these other guys get moved up stad young M go before him am I thinking too much into it or is like why all these other guys are jumping over brunovich when he was in Triple A before he had Tommy John surgery I just assume like he should why is he not back in Triple A already I or maybe that’s just it’s taking him a little bit longer and I’m thinking way too much into it but I don’t know fair point but uh cage strout I was gonna say I did not realize when we recorded the last episode that he had another fing tonight in Triple A so maybe he’s not as close as I said a day or two ago but uh do we think Zack I think he’s going to get Major League innings in Baltimore before the season ends it might not mean much for his long-term status with the organization but he’s someone that the pits data has always been better than the results and a large part of that has been because of health and because of walks he has been dominant for most of this season and for anyone who’s listening to this episode looking at his statline I think it’s important to think about what Bob just mentioned that he had another rough outing because he’s had two outings in the last week one against Worster and on a night where no one in the ties pitching staff other than Brian Baker pits well and then he had a tough outing Wednesday night against Gwynette so two bad outings in what has otherwise been a dominant year and the other thing to note with his sample size is that he’s a strictly one inning reliever uh he doesn’t get the runway that some guys have like M go has certainly had this season where he’s going to face more than going to pitch for more than an inning and face more than a handful of batters he’s a one-inning guy I do think that that maybe limits his upside a little bit in the Orioles eyes but the stuff has flashed Major League ready at points this year and I think he’s going to get some taste in the majors before the season’s over I will say that this team makes Bullpen moves McDermot fills the role as well and stoud I don’t know maybe you take the gamble again May we’re seeing we’re not seeing that many rule Five Guys get picked and so I feel like if I’m a team again I don’t work in baseball um I just podcast about baseball so it’s like but I feel like if I was in that position and I’m going after a guy that I would want a brovich Brandon young Trey M go type arm to select out of the rule five draft because that that guy gives you the stuff can play up in one two intance as we work through this rule five roster requirements and then there’s long-term projection there there’s potential for them to maybe become a starter down the road like Zach mentioned there’s no projection with strout as far as starter like he is a one-inning guy maybe you you roll the dice and say if he’s not on the major of the grer you roll the dice and say we’ll leave him unprotected again because they did it last year and he didn’t get selected but yeah I agree with that I think it’s up to the Orioles obviously like what they think about his development in Triple A over the next month or so but I think either he’ll get a shot in the majors this year or I don’t think he’s a trade guy I think he’s a guy like Nick said you you you roll the dice and even if he’s taken in the rule five draft this offseason we’ve seen him implode at times maybe he comes back at some point even if he gets picked but uh I think there’s a couple more worth going into depth about before we go into like speed round but couple younger guys International guys Edgar PES and Moes chass what if we tackle this one together between those two high upside young I think they’re like 20 years old maybe 21 um Nick this was shock hats off to chass glad he’s okay after that scary collision at first base yeah that was uh I’m I hate to say I’m glad it was the only concussion but considering he was like motionless for like 5 10 minutes there next to first base um scary uh so glad to see he’s will be hopefully be back soon I was shocked to see both of these guys on the rule five list already um when we look deeper into it I don’t see them at risk of being selected even though chass is getting all the pub he’s in baseball America articles like multiple times a week I feel like up to this point and PES he doesn’t have the stuff that Bal Meer and Levi Wells probably do but as far as aine pitchers go he’s statistically arguably like the second best arm in that aine rotation behind chass I don’t know this one’s tricky because I don’t see a team drafting a 20-year-old in Chas who’s got the walk issues that’s still a big thing as dominant as he has been he does still have outings it’s been much better but he does still have those blowup outings so a 20-year-old with control issues in ha who could be out another it could be another month before he’s back in aine’s rotation fulltime um hopefully not but he’s gonna miss a chunk of time now I think that helps the the rule five case you keep him in a high a all year he’s safe portes though like I don’t I don’t know if it’s a situation where bow meister and Levi Wells are college guys so you jump them up to buoy when they’re ready and you leave portes and high a maybe hide him a little bit more um but even if he gets to double a he’s a younger arm as well that I I could see teams having a hard time maybe digging that deep for a a guy I don’t I agree with Nick as much as I like both of these pitchers and as much as I think that both of them have a tremendous amount of upside portz is going to turn 22 in October and best case scenario probably will have half a season a doublea experience I just don’t see that really appealing to a team and then in sas’s case he’s going to turn 21 here in a couple of weeks so he’ll be 21 on on opening day next year and this injury is not gonna be a long-term setback but it is going to keep him out enough time it’s really going to limit his opportunity in double A this year he might still get there but this is going to mean probably at least three or four starts fewer at that level than he would have had otherwise and the rule five’s draft presents so many high floor older guys for pitchers in the Major League phase that I think it’s gonna be hard to pass up on someone who could help your Bullpen now for one of these two pitchers no matter how good they could be and I think both of them could be very good but there’s a lot of development left for both of them Tas it’s the walks Portez has come a long way in the last year but I think that with his secondaries there’s still some more consistency to be had so I think that you can probably afford to not protect them in the off season and you’ll have both them in your system going into next year yeah I think I pretty much agree with you guys here CH yeah I think you don’t need to protect him you don’t need to trade him if a team takes him in the roll five draft I think he’ll probably walk like 20% of batters in the major leagues next year and that’s not a shot at him I mean that’s just he’s super young and that’s a big jump uh portes I could see if he has a nice second half that going into the off season before the the 40 Man deadline maybe if a team falls in love with him that could be a trade potential there but other than that yeah I agree and I’ll just run down real quick noan Hoffman Zack I think he’s in norfol bullpen for the rest of the year not really a factor in the rule five conversation the off season yeah he looked a lot of fun last spring uh but I don’t I don’t think that side winding under arming uh delivery is is working out too well this year but agreed but I think the Rays at one point will get him and turn him into a weapon um Ryan Watson no that he hasn’t got more run in the norfol bullpen I defended him last year even though he struggled for good reason we defended him because the stuff still looked good I I’m I’m shocked that they the way they’ve handled him this year considering some of the guys that have been running out there in Triple A yeah like why did he spend the first what month month plus of the season on the development list was it was he working through something were they tinkering with something or was it we want to keep you around we just don’t want to get rid of you right now but like we don’t feel like you’re you’re ready to throw Innings a bunch of innings in Nori’s Bullpen right now for us for whatever reason I don’t know um it’s definitely questionable this guy just won what the year before last Orioles minor league pitcher of the Year honors so it’s it’s I guess wait and see with Watson let’s see how the rest of this year goes I don’t see like getting picked in the rule five draft and I don’t think the Ora is going to protect him either but I kind of agree and it’s it’s been interesting to see that it’s been a lot of short outings for Watson to this point in the season when in the past or least the last couple of years he’s worked as a starter or a long man out of the bullpen that hasn’t really been the case this year so what I rule out a turnaround before the season ends absolutely not but let’s just wait and see yeah I think Houston roths is an easy no being added to the 40 man but he does intrigue me as a bullpen arm he’s been pretty interesting this year striking out a lot of batters at a bil’s bullpen numbers aren’t bad I mean what is this 32.9% strikeout rate like yeah he’s walking some guys but that’s a lot of strikeouts he’s 26 years old and I feel like these guys 26 years old out of old myths like college arm I feel like a lot of these guys by now you just kind of move on from them but he’s still kicking around I don’t know I think they like him and want to keep him in this organization at least as long as they can he feels like one of those players that a few months from now we’re going be talking about oh look at his stats in the Arizona fall league um is there a conversation to be had here about him being protected in the rule five trft he’s always been solid organizational depth and I think he’s having the best season of his career to this point but as Nick said 26y old college guy typically you would think that if he’s not in Triple A by now you would have moved on yeah agreed H Zack Peak obviously we love the guy he’s got great stuff just unfortunately just cannot stay healthy I think that takes him off of the 40 man thing same with Jee Pinto I think both of those guys probably not protected no and you can protect them on the minor league side so they don’t there’s Jee Pinto doesn’t turn into somebody else’s or Zack Peak neither of them turn into somebody else’s tryo but yeah as far as Major League phase goes just get healthy both and lastly Luis Gonzalez who I’m interested in I think I’ll I’ll kick it off I think I think he will get a shot on with the Orioles this year and add it to the 40 man whether he survives it to the end of the season now that’s another story but to me and I’ll just cross him off my final segment list here and talk about him now um he’s a guy who 32 years old he’s Albert Suarez but a left-handed pitcher uh Lefty version of Albert Suarez for me because his FIP is 2.20 which his ER in triaa is 3.27 over his last let’s see since April 30th covering 13 and third Innings that is 10 outings he has a 1.32 erra 19 strikeouts one walk so to me he’s just a guy that can get strikeouts and doesn’t walk people I think that could help especially in the bullpen it feels me Keegan Aken optioned Luis Gonzalez you cleared Caleb ort put him on the 40 man give him a shot I like it I think there’s a reason Michael IAS and this organization went out and signed a 32-year-old arm who’s been pitching in Mexico and Italy and the Dominican and every country but the us over the last what four years or so three years four years um there’s a reason they went out and brought him back to the organization and it’s I think he deserves a shot as well he’s been pitching very quietly under the radar you know people look at norick it’s like yeah Povich is pitching well mcder is pitching well but like it’s a disaster down in norick you look there are there are some relief arms Luis Gonzalez included that are actually pitching pretty well that deserve a shot and I know Bob going to talk about another one lately later there some guys who I think are super intriguing and just getting no notoriety whatsoever they may not work out they may come up and be Thiago Vera when they get their shot but like they deserve a shot at least I agree I see Gonzalez out a minimum minimum being in the same category that I put cage Stroud which is you’ve got to give him a shot at some point just to see what he can give you even if you don’t see him as part of the long-term plans but yeah I I think you’re going to see him on in the bullpen before the year is over we’ll go now before we get to our final segment I do want to talk quickly about two guys that have been promoted within the last month neither of which is Rule five eligible for a while out so they’re not part of the last conversation that we just had but it’s Elis Deon and Cameron Weston D Leon Nick touched on this earlier arguably now one of the top pitching prospects in the organization he went back to Del Marva after pretty much dominating low hitters last year was seemingly only one thing to improve and that was his command and he more than answered that with a really strong run at Del Marva before getting promoted to aine and really outside of one bad inning for the ironbirds in his first start he has been really effective at high a and friend of the show John mioli just profiled Deon recently in his series about minor league pitchers over the Baltimore banner and it revealed a lot to me that I did not know about D Leon that he’s throwing a four seam fast ball and a two seam fast ball the pits mix is a little bit deeper than we realized it’s not necessarily slider and change up and that the change up in particular has really really strong pits data behind it so Nick because you brought it up I’m going to go back to you for this one just how high is daily own ceiling 20 inches on a change up yeah yeah like that’s it I I’ve said this over and over again with Deon whenever we talk about dayon it’s a lefty as what a 19-year-old he was throwing 95 96 from the left side and he had that great feel for multiple secondary pitches but it’s like John mol’s data like that’s there’s a reason he has good feel for that change up it’s a change up that no one else throws 20 inches of horizontal run which as John M said no one in Major League Baseball that pitch does doesn’t exist in major league baseball right now that is absurd um it’s it’s good he’s good overall like that’s his that’s why I pose the question like is there an argument to be had that dó is I think all three of us have poic as our top guy think all of us have McDermot as number two but then it’s like McDermot Seth Johnson balme like that range is there an argument for Luis ston to be the second best pitching Prospect in this organization depends on like how you value these guys but I think ceiling wise he’s certainly up there like top two or three in the organization we traded D and got a better de Hall from International signing basically um yeah I think that’s definitely an argument you can make especially by the end of the season I mean I think there’s a chance he get to taste it double A before the season ends I mean I think it would be towards a tail end but um tail end of his 20-inch change up uh fade uh just ridiculous numbers and I think yeah he’s so still so young so just give him a chance to get a feel pitch in abine for most of the season and man yeah sky’s the limit for Luis Deon I think it’s I was already super excited for him and then to see that John mioli article it was just like be still in my heart yeah I do Wonder though how many innings we’re going to see out of him this year because he pitched 28 innings in 2022 which was his debut in the DSL he went 53 Innings last year and he’s already up to 35 this year so he could be at his career high this month so I do and they’ve they shut him down early last year they’ve I feel like they’ve been really cautious with him this year even there were a couple of outings where it’s like why is he only going three or two he’s at like 30 pitches they’re taking him out I think they’re GNA be really cautious with him for whatever reason so we see how long he last and the best part about D on I don’t know if JN mentioned this in his article or not um but like his signing bonus wasn’t it only like 10 or 20 grand like this guy signed for pennies literal pennies an extension candidate pre exactly like this this guy signed for nothing no one else wanted him that’s that’s some good scouting by these International guys scouting and Player Development it’s what we do um yeah I think right around 100 Innings I would expect probably for the year so probably not going to see any five inning stints for him uh appearances for him this year but that’s okay yeah I think that they are gonna play it conservative with him and I’m perfectly fine with that uh we have seen him come out of the bullpen and aine which I think tells us how they plan on using him he’ll probably start some nights being a piggyback rooll other nights but it’s a good way to manage his Innings he’s young as Bob mentioned only 21 he’s got a long you know a long way to go in his development but his potential is so high that you want to take it as slow as you can right now I have him ranked fourth among pitchers on my list the only guys ahead of him are Kade povit Chase McDermot Jackson balme and Seth Johnson there is an argument to be made that dve Leon ceiling is higher than all of them he’s probably the furthest away from the big leagues in some respects I think certainly further away than povit McDermot and Johnson are and maybe balme but the stuff when you look at it across those four pitches da own is just different and it’s not a slight on any of those other three pitchers who were really good but it’s just there are not a lot of left-handers in baseball like Lis Deon who throw hard who have that kind of change up who have two different fast balls they can use to attack here aren’t a lot of pitchers like that with the ability to start and I I right now from what I’m seeing I think D Leon can sick as a starter oh 100% and you’re you’re right he’s different I predict he will be if and I’m not counting Kate Povich in this but I think he’ll be the next pitcher prospect that is a top 100 in all baseball in a about a year’s time I could easily see that happening let’s go now to Cameron Weston who after an injury debuted or had his full full season debut with AB last year started late and was one of the ironbirds better pitchers down the stretch he went back there to begin this season and dominated over four starts before being promoted to buoy where he’s arguably been a little bit better uh if you look at his numbers his strikeout rate is about the same as it was in abine but the walk rate is down by quite a bit meanwhile the ra sitting in a pretty solid 237 the xfip is lower at Double than it was at high a 321 compared to 352 and so far he’s had more Innings of Billy 19 than he had at aine to start this season where he loged 16 and two3 innings pitched Weston is a guy that typically gets more credit for his secondaries than his fast ball because he’s a right-hander who doesn’t have premium velocity but he’s got a good mix of secondary pitches his chain up looks particularly good most Knights that have a lot of movement on them but I contended on an episode about a month ago that I think the fast ball is an underrated pits yes it’s not it doesn’t have premium velocity but it’s got really good late movement in the zone and when he’s on hitters really don’t square up on it so Bob I’ll start with you Weston has had a remarkable year to this point what are you seeing and what do you think that it has done for him with his long-term Prospect status in this organization yeah no doubt uh he’s this year’s Alex fam obviously we had a higher opinion of him coming into this season than we did of fam coming into last season I would say but he’s gone from a guy who I thought could be like a legitimate like high leverage relief Prospect to now it’s like well maybe he can make it work as a starter because he’s doing some things like you said the fast ball looks a little bit better than it did in the past the change up as a weapon he’s just pitching like mixing his pitches and and all that really well I think you know he could be in that KY brovich pre Tommy John surgery like uh part where he’s like a backend Innings eater if he’s a starter but if he’s a reliever again like I could see him being a high leverage not high velocity but a high leverage arm uh in a way that uh I don’t know just gives a different look you like Canó is a sidearm and Sinker baller colom is a a lefty with ridiculous pitches and I think a guy like Weston would fit in really well as far as just giving different looks out of a bullpen but I’m certainly not giving up on his uh chances to make it as a starter especially after the start that he said he’s probably the him and Edgar portst I feel like we in a battle between being the best pitching prospect that no one talks about in this system like got promoted to Buie it’s 19 Innings 24 strikeouts four walks that’s insane um he just hasn’t pitched I was going to say like what does he have to do to get more notoriety but he just hasn’t pitched much it because of the injuries 42 Innings last year he’s up to like what 35 or so this year and since getting into buoy the strikeouts are up the walks are way down he’s at a 5% walk rate it was 11.7% in high a this year strikeout rate 31% 31% um the only the the big thing that sticks out is like he’s not getting the ground balls as much anymore this guy was like career up to this point like 55 56% ground ball rate it’s down to 47% that’s like the biggest blemish everything else has been improved since he got to buoy and he’s another guy who I I don’t think you’re gonna see a ton of innings from him this year he’s probably gonna stick in that piggyback role um as long as I honestly I could see him if depending on how things shake out the triaa level which I think you’re going to see a lot of movement over the next couple of months I could easily see Weston getting that cup of coffee at the end of the year in Triple A and then next year like battling he’s in Triple A to start the year he’s probably in norix rotation and he’s a guy that’s who’s battling and you’re like man that guy could be a potential weapon out of the bullpen at the end of you know 2025 season maybe I I’m watching closely I love watching this guy pitch it’s it’s interesting comments when people have never seen him pitch I feel like there’s been three different comments already this year it’s like that’s Tommy John surgery waiting to happen because of his weird delivery and that everyone know has to make that comment no the kid’s good and he’s got that funky delivery that just eats hitters up it’s fun to watch completely agree and with that we will go into our final segment of the night where we shout out players outside the top 30 portion of our top 50 Prospect list for something they’ve done recently whether it’s been a good game a good week or just something interesting in their stat line and since his reliever pick kind of fits into the theme of this episode and in fact he’s been mentioned a few times already I’ll turn it over to Bob Matt crook is that who we’re talking about here yes okay um yeah Matt crook he has been stealing outs from Hit all season in in Triple A I’m just trying to pull up his overall stats real quick yeah 1.50 a on the season 18 Innings pitch 21 strikeouts 10 walks which is a little high but I feel like most of the walks happened in the the first month of the season if you go back after his second appearance in early April since April 9th he’s pitched 15 Innings to a 0.60 erra 17 strikeouts to 9 walks and then if you go even shorter from now his last five appearances he’s pitched five and a third seven strikeouts two walks no runs allowed so to me I’m not sure if he’s like new Nick vespie or if he’s like a guy they think could be a weapon or like new Danny kulum or new Nick vby obviously we love Nick vby he dominates minor league hitters he hasn’t really had a chance to prove if he can do it at the major league level so I think we know where the organization stands with him but um yeah I just wanted to shout out Matt crook he’s already on the 40 man so very easy to give him a shot at some point this season especially swap him with Keegan Aken if you want to give Aken a chance to get right back down in Triple A I could easily see that happening what do you guys think I I think like we talked about I think this is a guy who definitely deserves a shot if even if it’s just one of the churn and burn guys that’s like he comes up and if he craps the bed he craps the bed it’s what you DFA him you move on it’s fine you don’t lose anything but if he does click like maybe he has something yeah that’s a guy who I I watch a lot of obviously watch a lot of nori tides of baseball and he’s always a guy who I’m just like oh Matt krooks and like maybe I like skip a little faster if I’m not watching live like skip a little faster whatever I don’t pay attention and then like I’m preparing for the show and I’m looking up segment yeah I’m like oh wow he was actually really good maybe I should stop skipping through uh his outings and actually watch him a little bit harder um it was a good find yeah he’s gonna get a shot at some point I think and his performance warrants it and it’s going to be especially sweet since he was with the Yankees last year um and for my hitter I’m gonna go with the guy I’ve talked about a lot last year especially Steph Oedo who got off to a really slow start this year then he went on the injured list and ever since he’s came back he’s been just killing the ball in de Mara I would not be surprised if hay Aberdine is in his future as soon as they think guys like Bradfield and Matthew etel deserve to be promoted to double a for the season he’s batting 281 with a 787 Ops six doubles three home runs 13 stolen bases and over his last let’s see 18 games 57 at bats obviously with the injury there we’re going all the way back to April 20th so it’s been over a month but with the injury it’s not a of it bats but he is batting 351 with a 966 Ops in that span 175 WRC plus 99.4% walk rate which is very much increased from last year and 18.8% strikeout rate which is much better than his 30% strikeout rate last year overall it’s 26.4 so he’s making strides and he’s still only 21 years old believe it or not since he’s been in this organization for four or five years now so just wanted to continue to shout him out as he continues to go under the radar I like it I’m going can we also just shout out the fact that uh I feel like whenever we do this segment at least my guys the next week they just they’re not good um and like we’re digging deep for these guys so of course like they’ve got holes or whatever but it’s like why you got to do this to us um but Daniel Johnson crushed it again this past week hit 500 for the tides and we did a full episode on Matthew etel and Enrique Bradfield and they continued to rake this past week for aine so uh thank you guys for finally uh following through after we we talk about you guys um I’m gonna go down to fcl I don’t know if we’ve done that with guys very rarely do we go down to the fcl even though they just started um but I wanted to talk real quick about Ellis quas just because he’s one of like seems like 15 of these sub6 foot switch hitting middle in fielders at the Orioles is stockpiled in these last couple of international signing classes but even like Aaron Estrada is leading the way hit up opposite field home run just the other day which is really cool to see but quas is another one of these guys in that same mold as Aaron Estrada Five for 10 last week with a home run I believe it was a walk-off home run as well uh two walks two stolen bases 855 Ops 128 or he had a 855 Ops and 128 WRC Plus in the DSL last year in the fcl this year he’s got a 926 Ops he’s already matched this home run total of two in 16 games this year he hit two in 54 games last year so poers up the walk rate is up from uh 10% to 14% the strikeout rate is down from 19% to 15% talk about that a lot with these younger guys who we don’t have eyes on and he’s got a 146 WRC plus so I I’m liking what I’m seeing at Ellis quas from the bat and then on the mound my under the radar shout out this week is Bradley Bremer I don’t know if we’ve ever mentioned his name on this podcast yet but he was a 12th round pick out of Indiana last 2022 when the Orioles just clearly loved Indiana who your baseball because they took re sharp as well in that draft the Brammer was okay last year in Del Marva fine gets the bump up to Aberdine and I really wasn’t expecting much to be honest but he’s worked exclusively out of the bullpen he pitched three and two3 scoreless innings last week with two hits allowed three strikeouts and in 20 Innings this season he’s got a 2.18 ER 192 average against 24 strikeouts and 20 Innings pitched as a reliever for aberin so just a guy who we always like what aine’s pitching and so many guys lighting it up on a nightly basis while Bremer just very quietly does his thing out of the bullpen good to see good choices go ahead Bob oh I was just going to say great choices as well and maybe we’ll get some Dominican summer league shout outs coming up because their season starts on Monday June 3 I’ll start off with my hitter who is Aon Estrada um Estrada has rebounded from a really rough month to begin the season and absolutely has torn the cover off the ball in the month of May and he showed that recently including on Tuesday when he went three for five at the plate with an opposite field home run it was a second straight game in wiy Homer and the big thing with zrada is that line drive stroke I remember back in 2022 when he had that big season in Dominican summer league and was starting to get a lot of notice from us that the from the little bit of video that we could get of him that summer he had this really nice compact Line Drive stroke that allowed him to get the most out of a pretty small frame He’s listed at 58 142 has been listed at that his whole career I’m not sure if it’s accurate anymore that gives you the sense that he’s a smaller guy last year in the fcl the ground ball rate went way up his numbers weren’t as good despite that the orial promoted him to Del Marva this season as I mentioned April was a really bad month for him but he’s managed to completely turn the paids in May and the big key is that the line drives are back up line drive rate entering Wednesday of just over 18 18% meanwhile the ground ball rate was at 60% last year has been slashed down to just under 54% and here’s another stat I love he’s hitting the ball and pulling the ball at about the same rate so that all field stroke is back for him that has been good for to see and even as a switch hitter he can take advantage of the opposite field which he did against Carolina on Tuesday night batting left-handed hit a home run off the video board in left center field so that line drive stroke is back the big blemish right now is that his walk rate sits at around 5% you want to see that number go up but given he’s made adjustments so far at this point in the season I’m hopeful he will improve in that area as well and then for my pitcher I’m sticking with delm Marv I’m going with Cel kareah kareah is a young right-hander 21 years old the ordal signed out of Cuba before the 2020 3 season last year K got off to an excellent start in Dominican summer league was promoted to the fcl and really struggled there this year he went back to the fcl and after this one outing was promoted to Del Marva and if you only watch this first start with the stb birds you probably didn’t come away impressed because he struck out four guys in four Innings of work or excuse me walks four batters in fours of work with only one strikeout his last two outings since then had been a lot better combined nine and two3 inning pits with 11 strikeouts against four walks so far this season he’s had very good numbers over a small sample size between the two levels a 0.96 ER was 15 strikeouts to eight walks over 13 over 18 and two3 innings pitch so kareah still really young at this point just 53 and a third career Innings but sewing a lot during his first stint in Del Marva yeah watch his last outing I watched it this morning I had it on the background when I was working um I don’t know how many hits he allowed yesterday but like four maybe they were all like ground ball weak ground balls through the infield uh no hard contact it was a lot of I don’t think he’s a high V guy but I think he’s like 90 92 or something but uh that guy is uh he’s pretty polished for as young as he is as far as development wise I think it he had some issues coming out of Cuba and that delayed his entrance into the US and which is why there was that really emotional video of him signing when he found out that the Oriols were signing him um it was a big relief for him obviously and uh he’s pitching fairly well I think he he might be in my new top 50 that comes out or at least very very close we’ll see yeah great choices especially aarin Estrada I feel like he’s one of my guys our guys um Frederick Ben cos may reminition just the switch hitter the the oppos field home run surprised me I didn’t know he had that kind of power so maybe he has grown a little bit so I’m very happy that he’s he’s having a good month and hopefully that continues rest of the season and Nick mention of his personal top 50 is a good reminder that our monthly update to the top 50 Prospect list is going to drop next week exclusively for patrons you’re not going to want to miss that if you’re not a member of patreon Community yet please check it out and sign up today you can sign up for as little as $3 a month and at the five and $10 levels have access to bonus daily coverage from Bob Nick and myself of the Orioles minor leagues not only can you find us on patreon but you can find us on our many social media channels including Facebook Instagram threads X Tik Tok and YouTube we’re also at substack Oral onth birds. substack docomo minor league as well as the draft throughout the spring we look forward to bringing you more there over at substack we will be back next week in the meantime hope you enjoy the rest of your week for Bob Fen and Nick Stevens this is Zach sped you’ve been listening to Orioles on the verge presented by bet online and part of the believe podcast Network