Brad Thomas and Denny Carter give their favorite bets for this weekend’s U.S. Women’s Open, plus they preview the field in the RBC Canadian Open. #GolfChannel #USOpen #NellyKorda #PGATour
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Can anyone take Nelly Korda down in the 2024 U.S. Women’s Open? | Going For The Green | Golf Channel
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welcome to going for the green I’m Brad Thomas here with Denny Carter and we’re not only going to talk about the PGA Tour we’re going to talk about the LPGA Tour women’s US Open and we’re actually G to kick things off there Denny because I know me as a true degenerate I have like eight million bets but I’m gonna give my favorite too and you have a laundry list as well so why don’t you kick things off with your first uh US Women’s Open bet look uh Nelly Corda is almost goes without saying you know short odds and everything I I I I want to be a little more interesting I want to mention golfers who are not named Nelly Corda and there are some some excellent ones to choose from uh this week in the US Women’s Open uh M Lee the sister of Min woly on the PGA tour uh she’s a serious Contender here 25th on the LPGA Tour in total Strokes gain this season she’s first in Strokes gained on approach just a blistering iron player and she’s sixth best in average proximity to the pin like I said uh when she puts it in the Fairway and she’s a little iffy off the tea but when she puts it in the Fairway she is unstoppable that’s going to be really important this week uh I I like her at plus 3500 uh to to shock the world and win this uh win this event yeah Denny you said Nelly Corda the favorite twin right plus 350 it’s hard to go to any major championship and want to back the favorite at such a short price Nelly Corda six wins on the season seeking only her third major though uh she has what 14 wins um only two of them being Majors I thought that was pretty important but I’m still going to try to beat her and the first golfer that I’m I’m gonna bet on is Hannah green at plus 3500 like I said I told you I’m totally deing out I think I put a little bit on her top 10 and top 20 because those prices were just nuts I think for her to finish top 20 was like I don’t know plus 200 she is second this season in scoring average only behind the best female golfer on the planet being n Nelly Corda and uh she’s fourth in greens and regulation she’s fourth in Strokes gained approach she has two wins this season and what I love about you know these bigger prices these mid-priced golfers is when they don’t miss Cuts uh henah green hasn’t missed a cut at the US Open since she’s been playing professional golf which I thought was something that I could get behind if I’m taking someone at 35 to one absolutely uh I wanted to mention someone who I actually saw watched play a bunch back in February in in March in uh Patty tavatanakit I hope I didn’t butcher Patty’s last name there uh and I was so impressed by her this is this is a woman who has that dog in her okay like she she will grind she’ll do whatever it takes I saw her pointing at the cup as the ball goes in like tiger circuit like 2003 like Ju Just Just A a total dog on the course I I like her a lot plus 800 finish uh top five she has the same mods as M Lee at 3500 to win this event um tavatanakit is eighth in total Strokes game this season seventh best around the green and 12th best off the te uh she does struggle with her irons uh so that that is a concern here but I I really like her uh as a as a top 10 or even a top five finish at the US Women’s Open love it man I’m gonna go well actually before I tell you my golfer I want to talk about my thought process about betting a little bit this make this make more sense is anytime whatever event I’m betting on I try to eliminate the name from it that’s the last thing I factor into my equation I just want to look at the person who pops up over and over again so I build out my spreadsheet and I put ticks in different categories so the person’s reduced down to an X because sometimes it’s as cut and dry as how they are playing and not necessarily the person and why I say that this golfer’s name just kept popping up in almost every single category that’s aoka fway she popped up in the top five in almost every single statistical category right fifth in scoring average this season first in Bird’s made this season third in driving distance top 20 in Strokes game putting and oh yeah she has the second most top 10 finishes this season behind none other than Nelly Corda she’s another golfer that I took outright at plus 25500 I also took her to finish inside the top 10 just because those numbers are astounding I believe it’s something like six top 10 on the season season last week she gained upwards of six seven strokes gained on approach which was absolutely phenomenal so I thought this price was another that I had to dive in especially if I’m going to be trying to fade a plus uh 350 in Nelly Corda sure Hey listen uh you are a spreadsheets bro spreadsheet bro for xing out uh player names and just going with current with with recent form I respect the hell out of you for that Brad uh yeah player I wanted to mention here is uh Alban uh Valenzuela uh plus 1200 to finish top 10 at this US Women’s Open now I’m gonna start I’m gonna start with the uh with the tough news here she’s missed two of her past three Cuts but it has nothing to do with her long game okay she has been solid almost you know Elite from ta to Green it has been her putting and she is one of the worst Putters in women’s golf right now putting is fluky Brad you know we we could get a play decent I’m not expecting Elite on the green around the green numbers from from from her but I I do think that we could get something in the range you know in the the M median outcome middle outcome uh to to go along with uh fourth in Strokes gained on approach seventh and strokes gained off the te throughout this season uh really like I said machine from T to Green let’s just make a few putts and we can get uh vuela in the top 10 listen putting is one of those things where all it takes is one hot week and that could be the difference between a t 53 or actually winning or being in contention on Sunday so I like that um and before we move over to the PGA I just want to plead for anybody watching who are who’s the data miners out there please please build some more model services for the LPGA Tour because this is a market that is so untapped and we need the data please I digress Denny let’s get over into the PGA Tour the Canadian open uh the longest standing tournament in the PGA tour right now I think it’s something back to like off top of my head in 1914 1940s some I think it’s 1940s crazy crazy but we’re playing at Hamilton golf and country club and Rory’s the short shot I think he’s won two of the last three Canadian opens and I’m going to be honest Denny I’m gonna keep my list real short this week because I hope that Rory maybe starts with a bogy on the first or second or third hole and I get him at 8 to one because I’ll bet him uh Rory’s the kind of golfer who plays new courses I don’t want to say new new but new courses or courses that the rest of guys aren’t familiar with very well why because his game can travel he’s a beast off the T and he’s just a really good golfer who’s in hot form right now but there is a golfer who I had to bet Denny uh sahi thala I bet him at 20 to1 I missed the 25 to1 at the open but listen I’m down here in Florida so I had to take the options I had I also bet him top 20 at plus 130 he’s already got a win on the season right but what I love about the gala this is more than the X and O’s and I just considered myself a stat guy and Crossing out names yes all these stats look great but there’s something that kind of uh affects or or kind of supports my love of theala this week is how he’s grown as a competitor something that the X’s and O’s don’t don’t measure the gala in his interviews you know before I think there was a time where he just didn’t believe that he was a top 50 golfer you know that thought process has changed right he maybe not might not believe he’s a top 10 golfer but he knows he’s in that top 25 and I think he believes wholeheartedly that he’s getting better and it’s showing a runner up at RBC Heritage he’s long off the te and he’s more consistent he’s not having those blowup holes which I think can Propel him to win if there’s anybody to beat Rory he’s got to be one of the options top 12 in putting uh over the past two months coming in to this event for theala and putting and around the green as much as I don’t love it big part big factor and and who’s going to win uh this week also you get to watch if you’re watching theala you get to watch his dad walk around the course with him and his dad is an animated character he makes it very fun you got to watch the gala sometimes yeah no absolutely um good segue into our second golfer for the PGA Tour event we have the same guy or your first golfer my second guy tell me what you love about Alex noren and why you’re not worried about the 9900 price tag associated with him in DFS yeah so I actually think that he won’t be super high high rostered in DraftKings tournaments obviously Rory maroy is going to be very high rostered and and rightfully so you know it’s it’s hard hard to fade a guy like that with that much upside um so I’m not telling you to Auto fade Rory or anything but I think norin at 9900 will be seen as somewhat overpriced um look besides one disastrous uh event on The Greens at the Wells Fargo Championship he has gained Strokes putting in every event this season and ranks second in Strokes gained around the Green in this field he top 15 on approach over the past 60 days we talked about Alex norin at least a couple times on this show O over the past month or so we we like our show is a big fan of Alex nor and that continues this week around the green numbers are vitally important here more so than almost anywhere else on the PGA tour and norin is redh hot around the greens Denny so my love for norin this season has gone to no ends I don’t know what it is but I cannot stop betting him right and even at the PGA Championship a course that wasn’t supposed to be a good course fit he goes out and finishes T12 and realistically he realistically had a chance to win the tournament now it’s a little bit better a fit because when I was looking at the superintendent notes for this event they said the rough is gonna be long well we have Mr noren who’s Dynamite off the te yes he’s not Rory malroy with distance I think he’s only 83rd in the field at distance but he’s hitting Fairways and because he hits Fairways he hits Greens in regulation top 10 in Greens in regulation top 10 on Strokes gain approach top 10 TAA Green Top 10 Strokes gain total and what’s the icing on the cake for all of that when Mr Alex noren Misses Greens he knows how to scramble I think he’s uh what fifth sixth in Strokes gained around the green so for me him finishing top 20 this price is absurd I’m GNA keep betting it until I lose this is an Alex noron show it remains that way this week yes yes indeed um Denny I was close to Mr David Thompson Davis Thompson excuse me right and uh I didn’t pull the trigger he kind of fits my model a little bit more than norin so can you tell me what you like about him and I need to know would you risk betting him in the outright Market I know you’re only talking DFS but I gotta know in the outright that’s tough because his putting Brad as you know as a spreadsheet Warrior you know this his putting is bad I like like treacherously bad uh and and that’s I think so I don’t think that he’s an outright type of bet here 17th around the greens that’s the frustrating part and and you know Davis Thompson has long been an analytics Geeks favorite and you know I’m guilty as well but third on approach 17th around the greens uh 11th in proximity from 100 to 150 yards which is a big an important bucket here but can’t get it done on the greens so the hope is that he does it that he finally maybe is just an average putter this week but everything points to a guy who is solid from from T to green and who I think is a safe safe bet in DFS to get through to the weekend and you know so that’s not super inspiring but you need six of six you know in DraftKings you to win any money you’re gonna need six of six I I see Davis Thompson as a guy not GNA be super high roster 7,800 I think it’s reasonable yeah Davis Thompson you know I like Mr uh Thompson there so I know with this course not having a ton of History here at least not measured rounds for us to kind of get our feet in you have to do some some o some some coar flyovers and I want to shout out Rick rung good because he had a good flyover that showed Target lines and at this course they implemented new bunkers Fairway bunkers specifically um but there’s a lot of dog legs a lot of the issues are going to be felt for more of those guys who are hitting their ball about 290 280 but if you can you hit it in the 300s 310 you should bypass some of that trouble at least so that what the um what the overviews were showing us there’s a guy who’s playing outrageous golf right now who’s also long off the te not very accurate but he’s long enough to where I think he can out drive the trouble that’s Taylor pendri I’m taking him at a top 20 at plus 250 he did miss the uh cut at the PGA Championship and what’s funny when I was looking at his data at the PGA champion ship not only did he lose Strokes on approach which is okay he lost Strokes putting this is one of the best Putters on tour a guy who consistently is gaining two and three Strokes each week on the putting green well now he plays an event that’s not after this crazy run where he had a bunch of top 15s corales uh even Zur in the team event uh won the Byron Nelson Wells Fargo top 10 now he’s playing an event after missing a cut he can finally breathe and play well I’m taking him top 20 I think uh this is a good setup for him driving distance goes well and a great Putter and he flies the ball you know Taylor pendrick flies the ball further than almost anybody we’re talking about in the in the Rory maoy range so yes that you’re right he can he can get past the trouble unlike our guy Alex noren who’s short up te but puts it in the Fairway you know you you you pick and choose who you want here yeah absolutely um Martin lar is a guy who I don’t think was on my radar so I was interested to see what you love about him and and not on my radar doesn’t mean it’s not a pick that I don’t agree with I just think it just kind of went past where I was looking so yeah 6600 on DraftKings and lared comes in with with pretty good form I played him a lot last week in DraftKings as a as just a guy to get through you know goty to get through to the weekend uh I think that that that’s how you’re playing him this week all of his around the green numbers over the past 60 days uh you know uh chipping off off the Fairway out of the rough out of the bunker or whatever it is suggests he’s an elite around the green player um he’s LED he led all players last week actually in the Charles Schwab event in Strokes gained around the green he’s top he was top 30 in ball striking um he’s been top 17 in proximity to the pin over the past 60 days I have some good stats on Martin Lair that I’m sharing with you because I need you to save uh some of your DraftKings uh salary by taking Martin L at 6,600 it’s a very reason able price and you know nobody’s gonna play him come on let’s be real listen I have to give you a shout out before we uh close this out on Zack Johnson I know he only finished T45 but my man was $5,800 only 2% owned and still gained 61 fantasy points shout out to you Denny because that was freaking awesome thanks man yeah he just you know my model look like you like you said I’m not going by the names I don’t care about the names I just see just see a guy goes well in my model and I and I got to play by the way on on FanDuel he was uh 6% rostered last week Zack Johnson so we we got we got by on the FanDuel folks wow absolutely stunning um thank you Denny for this amazing chat I hope that we can crash these bets man just because we did LPGA PGA Tour and anybody who’s watching make sure you check out nbcsports.com for all of the help with your Wagers and I wanted to say one last thing rest in peace Grayson Murray take care guys
4 Comments
(4:12)- No question Ayaka is an outstanding player, racking up the top10 finishes, but no way is she 3rd in driving distance. Driving distance would be one of the few weaknesses of her game.
I'll take:
Hae-ran Ryu
Rose Zhang
Janet Lin
Great analysis! What's up Brad!
👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
Putting my chips on Hyo Joo Kim and Andrea Lee.