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Irish Guineas Tips & Preview with Andy Holding



The Irish Guineas is here! The oddschecker Betting Show covers all bases from the action at the Curragh with host George Elek joined by our very own Andy Holding on the hunt for some winners this weekend.

The duo give their expert tips and opinions ahead of the racing at the Curragh and offer their picks and rationale as the flat season continues to provide top tier racing.

Within the show we go in search of winners with Irish Guineas tips throughout as we look for the best value in the betting markets.

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this is your Irish guiney preview coming at you from the Cara albeit sadly we aren’t at the car I’m your host George ellic delighted to be joined as ever by a is very own Andy holding as we look ahead to Saturday and Sunday’s card over in Ireland and we’re also going to have a quick glance as well at the group racing at ha do and at York on Saturday Andy how you getting on good yeah yeah so far so good yeah decent uh couple of days last week um once you a full house bit patchy this week but uh coming to the week stuff now so um could done with all that rain couldn’t we yeah I know it’s just um throwing everything into a little bit of disarray really yeah it’s it’s come as a welcome to some set connections which we’ll talk about in a second or two but the C sort like in Twix in between I looked at the forecast for Saturday I think they’re going to be out right for the 2000 Guin the Colts but yeah the Phillies might just get something completely different on a Sunday if that forecast is to believe yeah indeed well we’ll get to that when we get there um but we’ll kick off uh with Saturday’s card at the car we’re recording this just after midday on Friday so final decks on Sunday uh are only just in but we do have a couple of markets up as is often the case with the Irish racing fewer races priced up early so um but we will kind of have a look at I guess a couple of the the the races we haven’t got prices yet where Andy can flag up some to look at I’m guessing nothing in the first Andy because none of them have run yet apart from one um so we’ll get straight into the 155 on SAS at theara which is the Marble Hill State over six furlongs um the two-year-old race here uh just you know we’ll be going through the the best prices as per the OD Checker grids and Y checker app where you can find the best prices bookie offers free bets and Andy’s tips amongst other tips is straight to your phone every morning of racing uh Camille pizaro is the 100 sorry is the 10 to 11 favorite here ahead of midnight strike at 5-2 unexpected issues 7 to1 uh the the uh path the pnon is 7 to1 Arizona Blaze 9 to1 monotone 20 to1 local lad 40 to1 um the pathon unraced camil pizaro midnight striking unexpected issues all uh winning first time out camil Pasar is certainly the one that has been given the most Respect by the book makers Andy do you agree with that no no I think this is definitely want to take on um he’s a nice horse granted but what he did on the numbers first time out when winning fairly decisively doesn’t really amount to a great deal um he’s going to have to improve I think significantly to justy 10 to 11 favoritism and the form of the race as well has worked out terribly second and third are both been absolutely striped in their next respective starts so albeat is a promising cult no doubt and I now Bron’s B to get a bit of improvement out of him he’s done nothing to Warrant me even half entertaining him at that price um I’m much more of a fan of midnight strike I think his form has got quite a bit more substance more to the point his time figure was much better when he won first time out and of course it was at the C as well which uh he’s not to be disregarded he beat all called treasured is um coincidentally trying byy now Brian very easily and treasured is booked his ticket for Roy Ascot last week I believe is either nce or naven um I can say so I think there’s more depth to his form so yeah all in all I really do fancy midnight strike um W say he should be favored I think he should be favored in my head there’s no way he was going to be favorite in everybody everybody else’s head but because of that I think I’m getting a value price here round about the 5-2 mark yeah 5-2 best price as it stands Coral L score bet lad Brooks and vbet the four firms going five to2 there about midnight strike an early favor to take on there uh from Andy uh in the 230 uh we have the Greenland Stakes again over six furlongs should have been a ring is the 9-2 joint favorite with art power MOS Tucker fif is 11-2 regional 6 to1 Matilda picot is 8 to1 oceans Quest is 12 to one mbah 14 to1 easy 16 to1 unequal love 20 to1 OS and psyche is 25 to1 hor was flagged up to you and I on a WhatsApp Group Ron Yesterday by Johnny Ward uh are you in agreement with him he’s W to the out for at a big price off for two years yeah I mean if you go back and look at his form when he finished second in a group one behind harfield princess he’s a major major player the only reason he’s 25 to1 because he hasn’t run for 622 days and we just don’t know the level of Fitness um in the interim but the EAS try and byy Patty Tumi if anyone can get a horse to deliver the good first time out it’s him um so yeah he’s very much an interesting Runner George um he wouldn’t be my natural selection but um I can see where Johnny Ward’s coming from who would be your natural selection ocean quest uh she ran over five Fong’s first time out got beat by MOS Tucker now MOS Tucker is probably one of the preeminent five fing sprinters over in Ireland in the last couple of Seasons wherever sort of M tuer finishes in these races you kind of rate the race around but I think m is probably slightly better over five fongs nowadays whereas ocean Quest definitely is a six furong Philly that trip even at Navan over stiff track was too sharp for her um sorry nce I beg you pardon um and I think Jessica’s probably geared her up specifically for for this race she’s a course winner uh we know she stays really well she ran well at rawas last season I think she was fourth in the Commonwealth cup or certainly in in and around the sort of main players in the Commonwealth cup so she has got a very good profile I love the fact that she comes from a yard in incredibly good form she’s bound to come on for the Run uh good ground six furong stiff track at the Kura she’ll be absolutely ideal um little bit surprised that she’s double the price that Moss took her given that she’s got probably better credentials for this course and distance so she will do for me at 12 to one George in this yeah 12 to one uh is with bet Victor and coral they’re both three places if you want to take the four places you’re best off getting to William Hill who are 11 to one yeah you’re right about fourth in the common Commonwealth Cup last year at ASA in behind Shaquille little big Baron swing Along beaten just two and a half lengths there as well so good caliber there for ocean Quest as you say 12 to1 compared to mosaka who’s 11 to2 best price um that is the the 230 we haven’t got any prices as of yet for the listed race uh that comes after that the 305 over a mile four any of you before prices come out yeah it’ be interesting to see what price bookmakers chalk up U the Der well Phil down the bottom Samira um she’s a really imposing um Philly byc the stars who made a uh successful um start to her campaign last season when she beat Thunder Roll now Thunder rall turned the form around with her at CG in a listed race uh the other day but I was left with the impression after watching that race several times over that Samir was probably the affility to take out of it she just got caught in a little bit of a pocket as the pacing increased eventually turning for home I don’t think it was a brighten that Gallup by any stretch of imagination and it didn’t really play into her strength as far as I could read it um but I think now she’s had that run under a belt and dermat would probably just leave a little bit to work with for the rest of the season yes of course he wanted to win first time out but he’s got the black type um next to her name already so now he can really attack and go forward with her and you look at this race it’s full of horses that by and large are um I’ve got like quite a lot of Battle Scars over the years uh they’re not exactly sort of on the upward trajectory some are still going okay but um I don’t think candleford is a five to2 shot um I think rayu as a player he ended up challenging on the wrong part of the track the other day at the K behind White Birch I think he’s a player but at the price of Samir if he was put this way she was like 7 to1 the forecast price in the racing post I’ll be all over that Samir there the one to keep an eye on uh there for Andy the listed race prices should be out I’d have thought kind of four five o’clock this afternoon well there’s no there’s no there’s no way she could be a bigger price and run for Oscar for instance who’s an out and out two mile like it just doesn’t make sense you know you got a a Philly that’s on the up improv that’s Philly placed in a in a similar race over a mile and a half up against horse at w Cesar and it’s yeah the Racing Post got whoever’s put that in there on the racing post believes that Samir have got you know got a worst chance could be an issue using the the prices to um guess what prices are going to be but we’ll we’ll see fairly soon hopefully is that kind of 71 Mark around about onto the the the 340 The Big Race on the card on Saturday is the Irish 2000 guiney uh where we have eight Runners and an odds on favorites I am excited rosalion is the 10 to 11 favorite ahead of river Tyber at 4 to1 Haram 13-2 unquestionable 13-2 mountain bear 20 to1 Atlantic Coast 33 to1 bright Stripes 50 to1 take me to church 6 6 to1 and normally Andy I see the shape of this race and I’m like one will probably come out but it’s it’s the 2,000 guies you got to think or will go to post um you know how do you see um the value currently in this in this renewal yeah I fancy w a big price in this um yeah it’s just I love the shape of it I think on I say anything can happen but I don’t think some of the outsiders are probably as dis should be as dismissive as as what the Mar suggests particularly the one I’m going to talk about uh look ril’s got to be favorite cracking second in the in the 2000 again he how good that race is any time will tell um you know notable speech won it well but there was not several notable disappointments including the favorite of course city of yoru unbelievably Detroit city of Troy bigon who’s now seven to four for the Derby I find that hard to get my head around I no idea why why punters are looking to take anything under two to one about him under such a cloud um so we’ll see look R had a great glowing report didn’t he going into the guins he certainly did everything that Richard Hannon connections would have wanted just got beat by a better horse in the day he’s had a run tracks should be ideal for him good ground is fine he’d be worried if it went soft but it’s not going to because the rain’s not going to come in time so if you if you want to get lumpy with him then fair enough um but you look at the others and I think some of the in BR Brian horses are quite difficult to kind of get your head around they’re all having their first run by and large um and they all looked similar types from last season Mountain Bay River T unquestionable they won in their turn they got beaten their turn yeah I don’t think Aiden’s running his strongest crop there but it’s it’s dangerous to miss a dismiss Aiden in a race that he’s farmed uh I think har will run well I thought he he’s he’s running the guine is more than commendable but getting on to the one I really fancy at the price is his bright Stripes he’s a 50 to one shot currently I’m hoping he’s going to be that tomorrow because this will probably going up on my column he’s the only course and distance winner in the field and I love the way that he quickened up last time out he just seemed a horse coming com out of AE he beat a couple of horses that had been very much well touted early on the season one of Jessica’s call call called Norwalk Havoc who’ won his two previous starts and most notably Samuel Colt who should have won the guine trial first time out um at leopardstown and then was backed as if defeat was out the question in this uh tetrarch stakes and Samuel C just could not live with bright Stripes I thought that was impossible because I thought Samuel C was a really good horse I still think he’s a decent horse but bright Stripes left him for dead lateer on and because he’s trying by Andrew Oliver and he won against the Against the Grain last time out he’s been very much dismissed here but he loves the Kur and he has got to turn a foot and he’d be ridden chilly here out out out the back door so I think he could easily pick up pieces late on um I’m not sure whether anyone be betting four places on the day never know it is a Guin and bookmakers do do strange things but um I’ll be sniffing around for anything I could get in with him um I I think I’ll be disappointed actually if he doesn’t finish in the first four so um yeah bright Stripes big big uh big stin big opportunity to get stuck into that uh yeah bright Stripes 50 to one that is with py power and bet Sportsbook currently few firms also 40 to1 the likes of Sky betet William Hill so a few big prices out there what a selection 50 to1 for the uh Irish 2000 guine fingers crossed s say you would I wasn’t expecting that no I wasn’t absolutely not I’m over the Moon I mean you’ve given me a 50 to one shot and an eight Runner aair with an odds on fa I I couldn’t be happier um let’s just hope it’s still there why time we finish recording uh three races left on the card um we’ve got uh two handicaps and then finish anything to for listeners and viewers to keep an eye out for yeah and the 415 just keep an eye on crystal black he’s a horse that’s gathered up a real solid CV at the cor over this stiff mile um in recent times and and now we know he Stars a mile and a quarter as well he’s uh he’s he’s he’s he’s very much a horse to keep on the right side of I saw him entered up in the I think he’s in the Royal hunt cup whether mile there is maybe on the sharp side for him nowadays now they’ve stepped him up in trip is out a question but I think he’s I think he’s a horse going plac he’s a big strong powerful type that um um Colin Keane got some really well with of course he rides for his dad Gerard Keane and he’s got a lovely draw as well so I’d keep very much an eye on him um and there was one in the Sprint race that I quite liked where are we where are we where are we where are we oh no it’s in sorry it’s in the last race beg you pardon Ozark days again another Andrew Oliver horse could be red letter today for him um he finished third in a hot made the other day behind um a horse of Jessica harington’s and I think it was quite a good race of the grade they went a good Pace he traveled really well he’s very much a winner waiting to happen those Arc days uh and that could be good a really good opportunity for him against quite a few of making their debuts so i’ I’d imagine those days will go very Clos in that last good stuff uh a couple more races we’re going to just quickly uh tick off uh back over this side of the see we’ll start at hok where we have got the temple Stakes um where uh live the dream this is the the 150 on the car the group two of five furlongs living the dream is the 4 to1 favorite ahead of Rogue lightning at 5 to1 vad dream 5 to1 Asura 5 to1 beautiful Diamond the Sea of blue oner 8 to1 seven questions 16 to1 equality 16 to1 20 to1 macova cardos 22 to1 Flora of amuda 25 to1 seven questions and eight listeners and viewers to this show um should have had a decent Payday the other day you think the host would have done as well but he was put off by the drift wasn’t he the fool yes uh you have little faith yeah you have little faith uh yeah I think seven questions will go okay here go to spoke to George this morning I can’t exactly s say word for word what he said because we’d get kicked off the air um but he was more than happy with the way he’s trained now seven questions is uh notable for his poor work at home now whether this is actually a bad thing or not because he is now beginning to work well I don’t know whether that means he’s going to run badly on the track and and do and about earning his fortunes I don’t know but since he won the the palace house he he’s really come of AG he’s flourished at home like I say some of his work has been exceptional he won’t mind the ground he ran really well in the mil Reef on the ground last year um he comes here on the crest of wave George is really happy with him he’s got a lovely draw right in the middle I’d imagine he’ll track the speed which will be no doubt be served up by living the dream who is the rightful favorite based on what he did last season of course at York and subsequent events but the conditions are going to be fairly toing first time out so if you are going to take on the likes of living the dream and Rogue lightning as well who I think is a really good purchase by the way by wellham racing I think Tom Clover’s horse is going to be a real money spinner throughout the rest of the season um then I think today could be the day or Saturday of course I think V dream is is a is a major major interest now the ground’s gone soft Charlie fellow’s is May is a different Kettler fish when conditions are in her favor and I see she’s been very well back throughout the course of the week I think she was 10 to one early doors now she’s sort around about 5 to one is that correct yeah current current price is uh 5 to one yeah sure it’s seven to2 in places yeah I think anything each way about for dream Want Be A Million Miles Away there cuz she’s running really well and she’d be the one out of the field who guaranteed to handle conditions and she’s fit so the way i’ play this race would be V dream each way at 5 to one if you can still get that come Saturday but I’d definitely have a little bit of a Savor on one of um Charlie fellow his best friends of course George Scott the two of them do that podcast together don’t they um which is a real laugh so yeah one of them I think might just get the bragging rights over the other here with either the dream or seven questions could he even do the and George reverse forecast wouldn’t that be something vad dream is 5 to one with hills Coral Live Score bet and lad Brooks um and where are we for yeah seven questions 16 to one that is with um bet 365 Paddy Power bet Fair sports book The Two Against the field for Andy there and then we’ll stop off quickly at York uh before we head back to irland for Sunday’s racing uh where we have got the um yeah the Bronte cup up the the Phillies race of raile six this is a group three River of stars is the 7-2 favorite shorts 9-4 elsewhere gy royb 7 or2 as short as 11 or four elsewhere so a couple of firms disagreeing at the top of the market um Trev trevant is 9 to1 ter endar 9 to1 safety catch 10 to1 KN Sparkle 12 to1 L 12 to1 uh Marie Rock 14 to one and then 40 to1 bar the other two 10 Runners here Andy how do you see this I Look to be against G rose buds um particularly if the ground dries out it’s currently good to sop but the forecast no rain at all in York uh throughout the course of today as we speak and tomorrow so I think the ground will probably dry it to good which on her looking at her career history he no good to whatsoever she needs it soft or heavy that’s when she’s at her best her form last time is exceptional I get that but that’s on heavy ground she’s not going to get that on Saturday so I think she’s a poor price at 3 to one I’d rather be with River the Stars at the two the front end of the market proven at the track the yard’s in really good form and she was a lovely sweet Philly last season who improved with every run U but the one I like is the bottom one trons think bet 365 gone nine to one I’d have a probably more four to one five to one um I think our over level level of form he’s exceptionally good um she ran in maidan throughout the course of the winter but that didn’t work out perhaps she just didn’t come to herself but you look at her race form last season she was um second in a group one in Cologne in Germany uh she was third Beyond lumire in a group two at the Kura that’s exceptionally good and I thought she needed to run big time first time out at C behind um Thunder Roll race which I’ve covered early on in the piece so I think given that Jessica Harington has brought her over and Jesse’s got a very good record when she comes over this country and at York as well she’s won quite a few of these kind of races with Phillies um so I think nine to one is way out of whack from the way I’m looking at this race um 9 to1 is stand out with bet 365 there 7 to1 basically across the board for Andy’s selection there at York let’s head back over to uh Ireland back to the car for Sunday’s card how’s the forecast looking here it could be a bit of a change of conditions couldn’t Andy yeah I we’re not going to get biblical rain but there’s a um weather front coming in from the uh West and it’s going to sort of crash land sort of through Saturday evening into Sunday how much they get your guess as good as mine it’s going to be good Saturday but it could be good to soft yielding that kind of stuff by Sunday i’ I’d see it be more EAS easier surface for the runners um for for their Phillies renewal um so that changes plans a little bit the way I’m thinking with a few a few well let’s get into the racing again we have got um no prices in the maiden to open up and then there’s a handicap the second race of the card again not priced up anything to keep an eye on in those uh no not necessarily I had a quick look at those and I thought there b to be something but there’s nothing jumping out um there is a couple later on in the handicap so we’ll deal with the the ones that are priced up and then perhaps pay lip service to a few later perfect uh we will start then with the 235 the Phillies and May’s race over a mile uh where Rogue Millennium is the 13 to8 favorite head of Orchard Bloom at 4 to1 ocean juel 9-2 Villanova Queen and you send me both 9 to1 goldan 10 to1 12 to1 Gregor Arena 33 to1 by those uh nine Runners here Andy how do you see it yeah interesting purchase here from the Jose of O Brian St they’ve got a hold of Rogue Millennium who was a progressive May last season I form T off towards the back end that was because she was running in group ones this is a good start for her at a slightly grade lower but I don’t think she’s a thir to8 shot on balance particularly as she hasn’t had a run it’s interesting the jockey booking here because obviously Jose bran has got a very uh notable strong hand here but he’s had a couple of Phillies that have already had a run this season and the one I was most impressed with on a debut for the yard was gregarina um she went off UNF faned on that occasion um I think Joseph had a couple in there jumbly was a very short price favorite and I think he might have had another one in there um but Dy BR at mon monol Roo on that occasion dropped her right out the back but she was noted making smooth Headway down at the furland pole she still had quite a bit to find even with about 100 yards to run but she had a devastating turn of foot got to the front runner or the one that was in front at the time you said me readily one by aead but with another two or three strikes he was length of two clear so on my Reckoning she did really well to win a first time up when she wasn’t fancied B over seven furlongs and you look at her profile from last season when she was in France before they purchased her all her best forms ever further so I think she’s going to improve for the Step Up in trip she’s bound to be ridden Chile again um so even though Mikey Shi technically is the third string if you if if you like because declan’s riding gold and Dylan BR Mon’s riding Ro roog millenum which is natural they spent all that money they’re going to want the number one stable jockey on it I I think gregarine has been massively underestimated here um and she would she’ definitely do for meate the prices double figure quot gregarina 12 to one yeah that’s with Sky bet uh Paddy Power and the BET Fair sports book uh for gregarina the selection there for Andy in the 235 uh onto the uh Gold Cup now tles Gold Cup where AUST Roda is four to five favorite head of white birch at 5 to1 elegant Man 6 to1 lumier Rock 9 to1 MW 25 to1 L L mesus uh and Hans Anderson 33 to1 crypto Force 50 to1 Andy it’s an eight run a race with an odd on favorite and an oddd on favorite where there’s no denying AUST rodan’s quality but when we know what happens when when things go wrong yeah he’s just a complete so awesome Augustin Rodan obviously on his day incredibly brilliant but but he just throws in too many poor runs for me to be entertaining him as at a bet at even money um so yeah with the dead eight Runners it’s open for for manipulation isn’t it um I really like white bir in this um I’ve got to be honest he was smid and disappointing towards the back end of the last season I thought he was the real deal um going into the um going into the Irish Derby because I backed him in the English Derby if you remember he’s the horse I put up and he just got too far back on a track which didn’t suit him and I thought go going to the Kur he’ll really shine but obviously it was a good day for augustan ran but not a great day for white birch but since then his first two runs of his season he just seems to look a totally different horse albe he’s been rning group three and group two company but he absolutely wiped the floor with him last time out here beat at a good field he confirmed the form with um uh maxus and Village Voice who who he’d beaten the time before and he beat him even more easily the second time the key to him though he’s easy in the ground the rain is going to be very very important to him not so much for austan ran I don’t think connections W soft ground for him so if it was to go let’s say yield and yielding to softing places with the rain white bir is six to one currently would look an unbelievably strong bet five to one I’m afraid five well still five to one yeah and a track Le absolutely loves so yeah really really strong bet there white birch White Birch the selection there for Andy 5 to one best price as it stands currently with Sky bet with py power and with the BET Fair sports book um on then to the 345 uh which is the Irish th 1,000 guins uh Opera Sing is the 5 to2 favorite head of Fallen Angel at 5 to1 vespertilio is 6 to1 purple lily 10 to1 buttons 10 to1 a lilac roller 10 to1 skellet 12s aard 12 25 to1 bar those 14 Runners here Andy how do you see this yeah I’m a big fan of opera singer um she was really good when she was here at the Kur towards the back end of last season and I run um at in the Prem marel busac um was devastatingly good as well she could have done with a slightly better draw I think still 13 is a little bit problematical on the outside that would give Ryan Mo a a little bit of a poser um yeah now price just doesn’t really sort of Flo my boat really to be honest I really I like two Phillies have already had a run this season um yeah I really like a LOL a LOL look roller here uh Patty T could have run several in this race um he had several Phillies last season towards the back end who were really good one touch I think was one of them there was another one as well which one a maiden but he’s decided to run this Philly and don’t forget she beat um opera singer early on um uh in last season she warmed up for a tilt at this Pride by winning the Phillies trial at leopardstown the ground was bottomless wouldn’t have necessarily been her bag but she showed incredible bravery to beat Kitty Rose who got first run and they were well clear with the rest the time was good and she goes back to the Kur a track which she’s won twice before she’s got a good draw and I think 10 to one is way too big and the other one is buttons who running that aformentioned race won by alol rer she came from a long way back she was doing all her best work at the finish and she subsequently gone on to 52 to wend again in another tactical race which didn’t suit her she was given just far far too much to do and a slowly run aair when they got first run and she did really well to get the deficit down to about half a length she’s Absol absolutely crying out for an out andout straight track mile she’s a massive son of sorry Philly by Kingman and I think the Galloping nature of the track is going to be right up our street so I’m going to back two each way here against the field they bound to be betting four places on the day a lil roller and buttons Andy they they’re five places at the moment Sky um where you can get eight eight to one buttons and nine to1 Lil roller um 10 to one best I think I think they’re both be in the first five they’re just too they’re just too good they’re just too good not to be first five those two uh 10 to one best price both of them uh with buttons that’s bet Victor and coral with the Lilac roller you’re getting it most firms um there in the 1,000 guies and before we let you go Andy there are three more races on the card any of them um anything to look out for when when uh they uh when the prices come out yeah look out for a couple in the G Stakes the 415 depending on the rain if it does rain quite considerably then aquator definitely comes into equation he won a good race at the at LEP first time out but he has been withdrawn before on good ground so conditions very much needed for him spoken truth as well in the same race um dur Wells spoken really favorably of him I think this is more of a trial for the Irish Derby for him he looks that type um he was very good when he won at cor he had a good attitude and I think the more racing he has the better uh and in the final race I did Mark off one in this race I’m pretty sure I did oh yeah an improving horse of Jessica hington called B of SEL who got the job done really nicely last time out Quicken up well stayed on well beat a good field at naven stiff track very much his bag uh and anything Try by Jesse at the moment he’s definitely worth more than the second look lovely stuff thank you very much Ry for showing his tips thoughts and insight ahead of the weekend’s racing at the Cara and a couple of races over here as well make sure you download the odds checker app where you can find the best prices bookie offers free bets and Andy tips straight to the app every morning of racing have a great weekend Andy and we’ll speak again soon plenty coming up of course with the Derby and of course Royal aska as well and we’ll have you covered here at oddschecker please do ensure that you gamble responsibly and enjoy the racing

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