2024 Canadian Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Odds | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 Canadian Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
1:23 Field/Quick Notes
3:47 Course Flyover/Notes
7:46 Course Stats
11:01 Event History
14:47 Field/Stat Model
23:54 MIXED CONDITIONS
36:28 Guess The Odds

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a experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy Canadian open research picks field preview course breakdown and as always use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy.com get yourself a deposit bonus of up to 250 bucks help support the show and put some bucks in your pocket at the same time my walkthrough today is powered by fantasy national.com fantasy.com Mayo to get 20% off any of the membership levels full access to the tools that you’ll be seeing while I’m doing the research plus more tools that I’m not using during the research and access to the live leaderboard app the best app to track golf in the biz smash like while you’re here sub to the channel do all that fun stuff apologies for the delay on the show um I had a back seizure uh if that’s basically every muscle in my back tensed up when I was away on a golf Retreat on uh on Friday and it’s been a very tiresome two days to try to get that rectified still not rectified as of yet my back muscles are still basically tensed up I need to wait till Monday I suppose to get back to the doctor tried to get some treatment didn’t really work out I’m not even 40 yet and I’m already having these problems so I do not look forward to what the next like you know 20 years of my life are going to be with back problems not fun whatsoever hard to swing a golf club in that sense as well the field for the Canadian open this year is a bit lackluster Rory is there to top it off it’s essentially like an elevated event for the DP World Tour when you take a look at everyone you got Rory you got Tommy noren Lowry they’re all at the top and then you have 25 Canadian players in the field if you even if someone is Canadian adjacent they are playing in the field this week then you have a few more of your team RBC players Sith tala is playing Sam Burns is playing and cam are all playing in this event as well and then you’ll see a spattering of you know those mid tier type players all around and look it’s probably for good reason next week is memorial it’s a signature event then the US Open and then The Travelers which I still believe is a signature event as well so it’s going to be very difficult for a lot of the players especially the ones that teed off at Colonial this week be it’s Scotty spe morawa H they probably just didn’t want to play four weeks in a row five weeks in a row so this is a very logical rest week for most of the tourist but it’s very nice to see that some of the top end players and Rory’s commitment to my national open every single year Rory obviously won at this course last time around but it’s probably actually you know what before we go into that it was just released I’m sure that everyone saw it uh Grayson Murray over the weekend as it turned out that he took his own life it’s incredibly sad news uh his parents just released a statement as I’m filming this on a Sunday and I just wanted to throw it out there to anyone the the responses to this and every time that you see it are almost always the same and whether you’ve been directly affected by it IND indirectly affected by someone taking their own life or someone struggling with their mental health that everyone after the fact always says the same thing oh boy I wish there was more I could do I wish there was more to reach out so if you out there are suffering from any sort of these thoughts you know there’s suicide hotlines that you can call mental health hotlines or whether it is Hell reaching out to me via email like I I will sit there and talk to you I’m sure that almost anyone you know will help you get through this trying time uh so if you’re feeling any sort of those thoughts please do not be afraid to reach out now the desig destigmatization of this needs to be something that happens more often uh just so we can avoid tragedies like this so if anyone out there is dealing with those sort of thoughts please reach out to someone anyone uh and I guarantee you that there will be people out there to help you through this all right let’s get into the Course Hamilton golf in Country Club the last time that we saw was in 2019 Rory just went Hog Wild in the final round I remember very vividly my friend from Calgary came in stayed with me the night before took the train down to Hamilton to watch Rory shoot a 61 and end up winning at this event he was four back after Thursday but improved every round went 67 66 64 61 61 was the second best of the week after sniger carded a 60 on Friday it is funny because when you think about Rory being the winner it’s like oh bombs away just go do that but when we go take a look at the stats from 2019 that’s not exactly what happened at the very top of the leaderboard it’s a par 70 just a shade under 7100 yard V8 creeping bent grass for the greens 88 bunkers on the course nine water hazards with an average square footage of The Greens at around 6,000 per. it will be the third shortest course that the PGA Tour has seen so far this season after the 2019 event there were Renovations on the course they reconstructed the te’s the bunkers the Greens on all 27 holes on the property and put in a new irrigation system but it doesn’t seem like the routing has been changed at all the course itself will look very similar to what it did last time around they did add in some more trees renovated Golf Digest called it the 2022 best renovation of the year so that’ll be exciting to see and the area has benefited from a mild winter and a very early spring that all of the grass should be coming in exactly what it was designed to do it’s actually a split between the west and south courses at the of course as well at Hamilton golf and country club uh and when you take a look at the original designer he’s British he did Port Rush he did Royal Liverpool which is funny because you see Rory and Lowry come one two on the leaderboard last time around that Rory won a major at Royal Liverpool Herman actually won there last year we can take a look at that and Shane Lowry won at Port rush so it’s was very interesting to see those two names now those were two of the better players in the field as well so it’s probably not shocking that that ended up happening I think Larry won in 2019 at Port Rush he was coming in with some great form uh if anything else par 3es on the course are pretty long uh over 212 yards overall uh three of them three of the four over 200 yards the shortest one number 16 basically plays at par the other three rank two three and four in terms of difficulty even in Rory Sunday 61 he only had one green in regulation on those power 3es so tread some water on the power 3es the power fours there’s 12 of them uh 427 yards on average number 18 is the most difficult hole on the property playing . 26 Strokes overpower on average with just a 5 a half% birdie rate so it’s going to be tough to try to gain Strokes towards the end although bogey might be in the cards for a lot of people number five is the easiest of the power fours it’s 308 yards Rory hit the Fairway just once but birdied it three times out of four the power fives 561 yards two easiest holes on the course with an eagle rate over two and a half and a sub eight% bogey rate as well Rory was under par on number 17 all four rounds in 20 2019 including an eagle on Sunday it’s tough to shoot a 61 without having too many Eagles on the scorecard even at a par 70 but overall as you can see there’s bunkers everywhere it actually played a lot more difficult than you would think you you take a look at Rory score minus 22 and just assume that it was one of the easier courses it really wasn’t the case at all he just happened to have one of the best rounds of his career and just absolutely annihilated the place his weekend was one of the best weekends anyone has ever he has ever had on the PGA Tour he won by seven over web Simpson and Shane Lowry so minus 22 is probably not going to be the winning score this time around I’d guess probably like- 13-4 a little bit more difficult than what we saw at Oakdale a year ago let’s jump over to Fantasy National to see if we can try to make sense of some of this course you can change it to golf Hamilton golf and country club during the course breakdown as you can see hole number 18 the most difficult on the course with a 24% bogey rate there are one two three holes that have over a 20% bogey rate and another two that’s the power three number 13th and the power three number eth at right around 19% as well then number three is around a 177% bogey rate but it does have a 16% birdie rate too so it’s sort of a feast or famine type hole the power five number four 3.3% Eagle rate and that drivable is power four most of those came from chippin not putts but a 1.5 % Eagle rate so you can get yourself in proximity enough towards the hole in order to make Eagle although the birdie rate is is sub 30% the bogy rate is around 8% it’s a very easy hole it’s the third easiest on the course uh but it’s not as big of a gimme as some of the other shorter par fours that we’ve seen so here’s what I was alluding to a little bit before and we’ll take a look at this when we do a more in-depth breakdown of The Strokes gain results from 2019 but it’s pretty flat in terms of TD green and you had to make putts like putting was everything at this course and it kind of even comes a bit more pronounced when you go up into the top five finishers so we’re just taking it from top 10 to top five the average finishers gained almost two strokes per round on the green well you know a half stroke here half stroke there then we kind of take a look at the Rory profile he did a little bit better than that he gained a bunch off the tea a bunch on approach and not quite as much putting but still you know 1.5 Strokes per round almost six Strokes gained on the greens he was just excellent in all Fast of the game he beat up on the power fives treaded water on the power 3es did all right on the power fours better than field average but really beat up on the power FES uh and there’s only two of them on the course so was a par 70 that’s something to really look at uh 200 plus approach shots that makes a lot of sense with three of the four power 3s coming from Beyond 200 yards but everything else after that nothing over 20% in any of the bucket ranges but a lot more wedges in your hand than anything else on the power fours I mean in the cut line was minus one in 2019 and the driving accuracy was much lower there’s uh well they’re bent grass greens but there’s blue grass and POA in terms of the rough it can get pretty sticky on you can see the green regulation percentage was a little bit down scrambling a little bit higher three putts a little bit lower because of the size of the greens slightly below average and the average driving distance was about average to what we see normally on the PGA tour uh it just basically plays at your average average difficulty average driving distance average scrambling average three puts everything like that the only thing that’s a little bit lower is the driving accuracy and it really depends on where you get yourself CU there as you saw There Were Trees outlining a lot of these courses you one bad break could be the endia on some of these holes you have to punch out or you just do not have a shot at the green fortunately getting it up and down from the green side isn’t the most difficult that we’ve seen in recent history so we’ll take a look at the tournament history we want to go back to 2019 as I said the last time that was played here I many courses in the Canadian open Roa but again 2019 Rory was the winner at Hamilton Golf and Country Club minus 22 Scott piery won in 2012 at minus 17 he also ran a really hot putter that year Jim furick in 2006 was your winner the last time it had been contended before that so we take a look at the Rory profile you know 15.2 Strokes T green no one else inside the top seven which included web Lowry coer Snedigar hadwin IM and Willet Stenson and mcdal rounded out the top 10 so basically 10 of the especially in 2019 probably 10 of the top 20 in odds were the guys that populated the top 10 that week only hadwin gained more than hadwin gained eight Strokes T green will it gained 9.2 will it was the only one inside the top 20 who ended up losing Strokes putting for the week Dustin lost chipping and putting that’s why he ended up in a tie for 20th that week I remember morawa coming onto the scene he would eventually go and I think this was his first start as a professional because I think yeah he did this and then I think he followed this up playing in the US Open I can’t remember remember if this was the year that it was still after the Open Championship or if it was the week I think it was the week before the US Open then morawa went and played Pebble Beach he and havland were making their debuts at the US Open that year can’t exactly piece it together in my mind it’s been a long time since we’ve been through that but you see the putting the putting splits are outrageous here uh one guy inside the top 15 ended up losing Strokes putting and only one other one that was mck Hughes of all people didn’t gain more than two strokes putting but Rory six Strokes web nine Strokes Lowry almost eight coocher over eight sniger over seven hadwin 3.2 sunj six Stenson four and a half mcdal five tringali three and A2 Wes roach 4 and a half so if you’re not bringing your putter a game this week you basically have no chance at this tournament from what it is telling us um in this particular year let’s see 2014 was the other year where Scott piery ended up winning let take a look at The Strokes gained for no that was sorry 2012 is what I’m looking for yeah this was the uh the Royal Montreal year where the President’s Cup is going to be was 2014 Canadian open Tim Clark ended up winning yeah I don’t think there was much in the way of Strokes gained in 2012 oh no there was uh you see Robert grias of all people ended up coming in second that year he ended up losing three Strokes putting gained an outrageous 17.1 so it does seem like if you are a bomber and you can keep it relatively straight you can gain a lot of Strokes on the field uh I mean part of that has to do with field strength a lot of the time as well where you don’t see your very top end bombers at this course but for the most part you don’t have a lot of bombers up here you have guys that just putted really well for that week 7 9.4 6.3 5.6 7.3 and when you see someone like Shane Lowry gain almost eight Strokes putting it’s not really determinant on are they the greatest Putters in the world mw’s lost Strokes putting Shane Lowry gained eight not something You’ really imagine happening in 2024 with the way that Shane Lowry does putt but it’s just funny to see that pop up but almost across the board just gaining Strokes everywhere T to Green in all three facets then gaining a bunch on the greens that’s the way that we’ve seen it so try to Target your aggressive approach players uh who still have good T to green and everywhere and hopefully that’s something that can materialize through for us this time around jumping back to the field itself we take a look at my Strokes gain model which I have loaded in right now over the past 24 rounds um it’s just sort of a weight of your general I don’t have ball striking or short game weighted at all as a part of this model just because it’s you know there for me to see if I want to do it because it’s factored in other ways total 19 off the te 17 approach 30 around the green 13 putting 15 T green eight just to kind of see it and throw a bit more of that mix in there so over the past 24 rounds we’re taking a look at everyone Rory noren OE Connors sahith Kelly craft Aaron Ry this strikes me as a really good Aaron Ry course weirdly enough uh just we’ve seen European players do very well British players in particular and it kind of fits with what he does uh he has been gaining Strokes putting which is nice to see which is not something Aaron Ryan normally does T green this is kind of his Jam he gains a little bit everywhere if he can have one of those really good weeks uh then all of a sudden we’re looking a little bit better let’s see what we do for open championships did he make the Open Championship a year ago he didn’t make the Open Championship a year ago so let’s take a look at 2022 uh and then we’re going to flip that back over to 2023 just in case there is something to look at with Port rush and some of the players or sorry with royal Liverpool you see Rory C in 60 obviously he won it the time before cam Smith or Cam young sorry is in the field this week as well he was T8 there Fleetwood in the field this week he was T10 Stenson who had a top 10 at the Canadian open in 2019 uh was t13 so maybe there is a little bit of crossover that we’re looking at this week in terms of the different types of player uh if we kind of go through Nikolai hoard is playing he was t23 maybe it’s time for him to break through on the PGA tour at a better event noren was inside the top 25 Adam Scott is playing this week he was t33 and then just kind of going going down the list a lot of your regulars that are playing surprised not to see Matt Fitzpatrick in the field this week but I guess you can’t can’t Bank on everyone playing this time around even Willet made the cut a year ago and he was T10 or T9 sorry at the Canadian open in 2009 H and take a look back at Port rush I think that was more bomber Centric you had Brooks JB Holmes Tommy was second fow just trying to see if any of these names pop up I think Bobby Mack is playing this week let’s see Robert McIntyre yeah Robbie Bobby Mack is in the field this time around and try to pull those ones back up oh Tom Lewis John ROM there’s Alex noren again inside the top 15 I would assume that noren’s probably going to be a pretty popular bet depending on what his odds are going to be when you end up seeing a much weaker field and just to see the performance that he’s had recently he’s just been very good very consistent overall and just putting up if you just bet the guy top 20 every week you’ve been doing pretty well uh T12 t24 third 23rd 14th 11th 19th 9th of his past starts he hasn’t missed a cut since the fortnet championship to kick off the 2023 swing season he has not missed anything since then so I mean the D he is due for a breakout but we’ve been saying that for about seven years now and it just has not happened is not materialized could this be the week I think it’s a good course for him where distance isn’t going to be the number one attribute you really do want to look at some sort of accurate type players as well well OE kind of stuck out to me Cory Connor as well if they can roll the hot putter OE I would say would be a little bit better although his driving has been really bad the around the green is up and down you know he’s not going to be lights out with his approach every single week but he did almost gain five Strokes on approach through two rounds at the PGA Championship he was playing with Bryson I think for the first two rounds just lost a tremendous amount on the greens which was the first time he had done that in a while this strikes me almost like Valero in a weird way where it could be that type of course where people pop up we take a look at Valero obviously Cory Connors has won there twice before at TPC San Antonio OE won this week the Todd father is up there shank Fleetwood Ben Martin Matt Fitzpatrick custy Pete oh mcleer messenger up there too what did norin end up coming I feel like norin challenged for a bit he came T14 for the week uh but these are the sort of courses that I would start to look at uh especially due to field strength and some of the very higher end players be it Rory or or Fitz not Fitzpatrick sorry Fleetwood playing in this event uh might try to give you a little bit more insight to what’s going on at Hamilton Golf and Country Club you saw Bud colie inside the top 10 in 2012 that was an awful long time ago though so maybe we don’t need to look at that one as much best approach players over the past 24 Connors OE Kelly craft feel like I bet Kelly craft somewhere recently I think it was at Myrtle Beach didn’t end up coming through I think he ended up rallying a little bit but he was 13 at the Byron Nelson the approach play had been very good for him he kind of let it go a little bit that week Aaron Ry continues to be up there senson Ryan Moore Ryan Moore having a pretty decent week at Colonial this week as well theala you’re going to get hit or miss I do worry about his inaccuracy off the tea where he can gain a lot of stroke some weeks and it can really bury him but maybe it’s not like he had a bad PGA Championship he had a really bad round at the PGA Championship in the final round only birding one and 18 and really not feeling any in but generally speaking you think he’d be better around the greens because that had been sort of his Mo for most of his career until lately the past two months have not been good but the off the te has been good the approach has been good the putting can really Spike this could be another spot for seah I just worry that he’s going to open at 14 to1 just we’re not going to have a good time trying to bet seah at 14 to1 although when he got his win in Napa earlier this year uh it you know those were kind of the odds that we were looking at in that weaker field uh when it came around Ben Martin Johnny Vegas has won the Canadian open albeit at Glenn Abbey most definitely not similar to this venue whatsoever who else Damon seems like he’d be a pretty decent play here Kevin Yu if Kevin Yu could ever putt who have been the best Putters recently we can even take a look at Spike putting rounds because we haven’t done that as much recently try to see who gains more than 1.5 Strokes per round or more not per round 1 Point 1.5 Strokes in a round or more on the greens over their past 24 who has done that the most most let’s see scroll down here some guys doing it over a quarter of the time McKenzie Hughes uh in 62% of his rounds is gaining more than 1.5 uh low sink sahi is up there at 33% Matty Schmidt who missed the cup this week at Colonial Mike we 33% hego Ry Martin trainer who’s good Mark hubard around 30% Justin Su that shouldn’t be surprising Bo hosler pendrith a quarter of the time is doing that sh Kim a quarter of the time is doing that as well so we’re not seeing that many big spike putting weeks OE around 1/5 of the time is getting 1.5 Strokes or more almost exactly the same as Rory over that same time span and Alex noren so this is sort of the range where we’re seeing some of the spike Putters come through it’s weird to see Lowry do that CU When we take a look at his rounds it’s probably going to go the other way yeah so he had three of them in a row at the PGA Championship but before that loss loss loss big losses too one stroke two strokes 1.2 1.5 minus four at the Heritage so it does seem like he’s coming out of his Funk a little bit but when it goes bad for him on the greens it’s usually not treading water like the only time that he hasn’t lost more than a stroke over the past 24 rounds when he loses was round one at the Players when he lost8 before that was at Hondo when he lost .2 but he had does have some maybe it’s something to do with the design of these greens although they were recently reconstructed so I don’t know how much that’s going to translate forward that something about these greens that Shane Lowry has actually done well on the one time that he has played on them maybe because they are similar to some of the European style courses which he is just more comfortable on Ryan Fox yeah classic Ryan Fox gets it going for a little bit then absolutely implodes uh we kind of saw that again he was leading at 6 under going into the weekend almost until he got to the 18th hole at Colonial and then he hit it into the water on 18 and that was kind of the end of him for that week so that’s what we’re seeing off the outset here if we just go to the overall model rank Rory noren oay Connor seah craft Ry Lowry Mitchell McNeely McNeely could be the one who gets it done here I can most definitely see that with the way that he can run the hot putter ditto for McKenzie Hughes and we finally did break the Canadian curse with Nick Taylor winning last year at Jeff’s Club at Oakdale and that when when you had money on Tommy it was not fun to see Taylor just continue to I mean Tommy just continued to blow it on that 18th power five over and over then Taylor Made the putt everyone went crazy Adam hadwin got gold Goldberg speared and that was kind of the end of it and broke the drought 1953 had been the last time a Canadian had won before that but this is probably the best state of Canadian golf in a very long time gim collie hubard Novak laow Ryan Moore uh Eric Van royan is up there as well in terms of overall model ranking we’ll go back to rank in general and we’re just going to do a little bit of uh just look at some different filters right now we’ll look at short courses cuz that’s what this is going to factor into so we’ll see where can we go here less than 7200 yards there are very few courses playing less than 7200 yards these days but this is one of them who is doing the best per round on shorter courses we can see right now it is Daniel Burger I wonder how long that goes back to he did make the cut of colonial this week a place where he had previously won so he hasn’t played a course this short since the American Express made the cut and before that was in 2022 because of his long layoff for injury just we’re not seeing that many of those courses Burns Scott Michael Kim Tyler Duncan and Rory all play these style of courses very well norin hosler siah is another one who pops up I assume Heritage would have been on that list for him we’ll see what Sam Burns what he is doing here I mean he kind of fits the profile of a player that would do really well at one of these courses because he can run the hot putter we haven’t seen much from him recently in terms of high-end performances he did have the baby finally I think I mean that was never really widely reported on but he had the t-13 at Wells Fargo missed the cut at the PGA Championship bad off the te but horrendously B bad on the greens which is not something you would normally see from him he’s only really had the one two he had the nice run through the early part of the Season sixth at AMX 10th at the PE at Pebble Beach and then third at Scottsdale 13th and then the week after he was top 10 at Genesis and then boom we leave the west coast and it’s not been very good for all Sammy Burns ever since but it was nice to see him get back on track a little bit with the short game and irons at the PGA Championship albeit in two rounds you can get that Spike putting week from him maybe that is a spot to start looking at him a little bit more missed the cut at the open last year it would seem who else does well on some of these shorter courses the gala Mitchell Grayson Sig Stuart sink Bud Collie pops up pops up again hubba hubard Tom Kim baa is down there right now so in the overall rankings he comes in um in inside the top 10 of the power rankings but on shorter courses he’s a little bit worse than that Cory Connor inside the top 10 worse at shorter courses which is really strange but someone in that middle range if you don’t think that Rory is just going to go out and absolutely dominate maybe cam young at 18 me that’s probably going to end up being a popular pick you got you got it’s funny because you have Rory at the top who’s won I think three Canadian opens now maybe he almost won three in a row he’s won at least two Canadian opens CU he won here and then he won at Royal or not Royal St George at St George’s golf and country club in downtown Toronto uh that year I think that was the first year that all the Liv guys broke through that was an awesome field that year hit Rory at nine to1 that year as well beat out sheffler and burns and JT it was an awesome awesome Canadian open they had the Penalty Box hole that year too on the par three then you got like seah cam young Tommy seah alast has a win this year the other guys still struggling to win Lowry picked up a win at the team event but still doesn’t have a win in the United States since Firestone was on the regular rotation on the PGA tour Burns hasn’t won in ages Nan’s like never W and Conor has only won those two tournaments in Texas you’d actually have to go down to like the next level to find guys that actually win be it like Nick Taylor or Tom Kim or pendrith or OE that collection of guys outside of Rory has more wins combined than all of that previous group and when the odds reflect out that those other guys are most definitely going to be higher than we get to guess the odds I can most definitely see that coming through so we’ll take that off and take a look at some of the bent putting and see if that can reveal anything to us uh because as I I mentioned earlier before V8 creeping bent grass is the official layout uh of what we’re dealing with for the terminology and what they are qualifying these greens out we’re seeing more bent grass on the PGA tour as of late basically since Augusta we I think we’ve seen five or six tournaments including last week at Colonial and at the PGA Championship and the week before at the Byron Nelson Kevin dhy M McNeely Dylan woo Patrick Fishburn booser the gala Burns Vic Perez someone who does very well with greens and regulation too Vic Perez I wonder how he’s been playing recently thorbjorn olison David skins no shirts just skins Nikolai hoard putting very well on bent hadwin Aaron cochrell was in the mix in Belgium a little bit through two rounds this weekend but he’s someone who just primarily plays on the DP World Tour uh mck Hughes sh Kim is playing Adam Scott these guys are all gaining more than a quarter stroke per round on Bentgrass you hope for the spike to come out for them this week we’ll take a look at some of these guys that I just mentioned see Vic Perez how you been doing Vic Perez nothing all that great had a nice run of ball striking basically up until the PGA Championship not quite sure how he was doing this week at Colonial I’ll see that tomorrow once everything updates and the tournament actually finishes but been was very bad at the green the PGA Championship probably the the higher end events not what we’re looking for for Old Vic Perez but we would like to see some decent ball striking he has possessed that through most of the Season U off the tea has been a real struggle for Adam hadwin as of late but shorter I mean the longer courses have actually been kind of where he’s done well although not long on the scorecard Valspar does play pretty long Riv kind of the same way you just hope he kind of spikes with his putting uh was top 10 the last time that they played at this course as well so those are two players to potentially look at let’s take a look at some driving stats and let’s see driving and putting Fairways and greens probably the easiest way to do it see if we can find some good drives gained wish Keegan would have played this week or L like at the Canadian open and not at Colonial although he’s inside the top 10 going into the final day basically has no chance of winning Fairways gained over the past 24 years so you see Aaron Ry Tommy Fleetwood Daniel Burger Nate Lashley these would be sort of the default things that I would look at I mean I listen 143rd in the field in driving distance for a and Ry is not going to be great but it doesn’t seem like this is really going to overwhelm you all that much uh in terms of some of the maybe proximity from Beyond 200 yards is something that we can add into that so maybe we can try to build out a new one right now and just try to take a look at some very particular things We’ll add in TD green won’t touch anything else in terms of Strokes gained metrics and try to build this out a little bit only because I want to see what the proximity from Beyond 200 yards is because we see a lot of that this week and we’re going to want to put in Fairways uh we’ll put in off the tea and Fairways H so we can get a sense of guys that are gaining through both because we don’t want to discredit distance whatsoever I mean Rory was a winner here we saw grias do pretty well obviously it’s not irrelevant but I do think that you want to be hitting Fairways more than anything else and we’ll throw greens and regulation in there as well try not to overwhelm this too much with you know approach play proximity greens and regulation those all kind of go hand in hand we’ll put in that key Par 3 range and we’ll add in proximity but we won’t want to put those too high in terms of the waiting only because they’re telling us a lot of similar things and we’ll take a look at par five’s gained as well we should probably throw in putting to go along with this maybe 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 feet just to give us a sense of you know we don’t want to disclude or disqualify anyone because of putting because we just saw a lot of bad Putters at the top of that leaderboard gaining a bunch of Strokes putting but it be handy to see if there’s some guys that we can do pretty good with so we’ll wait T to Green off the T and Fairways gain give those equal ranking a little bit higher slightly because we only have the one Greens in regulation little bit lower for 200 to 225 power 3s and proximity 200 yards power FS overall pump that up a little bit and then equal waiting for 10 to 15 a lot of these come in at 10% 16% for greens and regulation gained power fives and strokes gain T to Green so just very rudimentary model just to see what looking at of who comes in number one Bryce Garett number two okay interesting stuff do I have any filters on no just last 24 okay Rory Garnett oxe norin Ry those are your top five Mitchell Kevin U craft Connor sahith or sorry not Sith mad mcney round up the top 10 then Seth Kevin DH I keep seeing Kevin dhy pop up here weird low Rico H Nate Lashley it’s another one for Nate Lashley Bud cie wacky valami lonto m Hughes Burger hubard Moore gim McIntyre and Chan Kim those would be the top 25 other big names that populate inside the top 50 you got cam young and Fleetwood champ Vic Perez and Adam Scott are all in the 30s Davis Thompson’s number 39 Sheamus Power number 41 pendrith comes in at 43 Brandon woo Joel Damon is number 50 Ben Silverman is up there as well at number 48 so let’s take a look at Kevin dhy for a second what’s this guy been up to doesn’t feel like much now no finish better than 30th since joining the PGA Tour okay let’s put a big X through that guy Nasty Nate what have you been doing nasty Nate not much of anything as of recent Sheamus power made that little bit of a run at Heritage played pretty well at Wells Fargo too okay now we’re getting somewhere two top 20s in his past three starts been decent on approach the putter has not cooperated at all but the driving the fairways are there the chipping has been pretty good we’ve seen some Spike approach weeks maybe Sheamus power from the back end is someone we can look at if you’re looking for someone who’s in triple digits who is this now Vic Perez we already looked at Vic Perez and we already looked at a or Adam hadwin so these are some of the names that continue to populate up there as I’m going through it it does seem like a lean towards the top of the leaderboard Bryce Garnett was the other one I was going to take a look at so I think for me I mean norin really does stick out as an excellent play but again it’s all going to depend on what his value is at a lot of these the the putter for bra Garnett has not really shown up as of late since he got his win in Puerto Rico we do not have strokes gained from that event but I assume that he had played pretty well in order to win those are on P palum Green so not much of a crossover but the approach play has been really good for him the around the green is always going to be good and I believe that he hits a ton of Fairways that’s why I’m guessing he rates out really well yeah seventh in Fairways gained over that time sixth in greens and regulation and first in Par 3 is from 200 to 225 yards just take a look at the proximity from Beyond 200 yards in general it’s funny to see the huge discrepancy between the part three performance because a lot of putting goes into that as well or chipping if you end up missing the green on those but McIntyre Thor Bjorn Kevin Yu JJ spawn Kevin Yu is top 10 he’s second in greens and regulation top 10 and Par 3es gained from 2 200 to 225 and third in proximity from Beyond 200 yards every and fourth off the tea everything else not great especially the putting the putting for Kevin youu not a strong suit I would say for him at all yeah it’s been a while it’s been since Phoenix since he actually gained Strokes putting and he missed the cut that week always how it goes the crappy Putters the moment they start putting okay and are not an abject failure the rest of their game just absolutely blows up you see a baa rates out really well here in terms of par fives short putting birdie range putting par 3es 200 plus Greens in regulation I thought he hit more Fairways in this to be perfectly honest with you B Green is inside the top 10 as well so that’s not actually a bad look for btia here uh just with all things being equal valami Norman Novak all good from Beyond 200 yards so was Aaron Ry oh God I have not bet Aaron Ry in ages so I guess it’s my turn on the wheel losers to end up betting Aaron Ry so Ry oh my God norin maybe it is just one of these week just hope Rory gags and one of the wheel loser guys ends up coming through Connors very good from that range Woodland very good from that range had a great second round at Colonial Eric Burns Taylor pendrith Kelly craft Ryan Palmer Chan or car crazy Carol Juan did not have a had a pretty crazy week at Colonial was not good for him but anyway that’s what we’re looking at it’s probably time to guess the odds for the Canadian open the RBC Canadian open will it be the final year for the RBC this I do not know but there is talks that it’s not going well so I have there’s one on an island by his own that’s going to be Rory I have him at 7 to1 then there’s going to be a drop off to what I perceive is three players Sith Camy young and Tommy I got siah at 14 Camy young and Tommy both at 18 to one then a next step down four players on the docket Lowry Burns noren and Connors I have Lowry at 25 I have the other three at 28 to1 I can see a give or take of Five Points like if Lowry started at 22 or 20 wouldn’t surprise me or if noran opened at 33 and was bet down to 20 that I could see as well the mini tier after that I have five names in it and this could be populated with way more depending on how the market feels about Keith Mitchell or Adam hadwin or Nick Taylor or some of those guys but I do have Nick Taylor in this range just being defending Champion Canadian Hero by winning a year ago Nick Taylor 33 Tom Kim 35 pendrith 40 OE 40 and Adam Scott at 40 to1 that’s how I see this field breaking down Nikolai hoard could work his way into that if someone just has an amazing performance at Colonial on Sunday they could work their way into this section of the odds as well be a Keith Mitchell Thor bujor Olson Bobby Mack whoever might be any even one those guys are playing this week I don’t think that they are but if someone creeps up you know Aaron Ry could be another one who creeps up and opens at 45 to1 you’re sitting there being like do I bet this guy because you know if he’s ever going to win it’s going to be at odds that no one wants to bet him at same thing’s going to happen to norin like we’re going to look at the odds be like there’s no way I could bet Alex noren at those odds in a field where there’s real people and then he’ll end up winning cuz that just what he’ll do or if everyone bets him he’ll be in the second round lead going into the weekend have a disastrous Saturday and then come back with an amazing round on Sunday to come in third place because that is the n Alex noren game plan that will do it on the pat Mayo experience it’s Cana week for the Canadian open I got fineberg on Monday I got alreck and cam Kens on Tuesday for the Best Bets and obviously Tambo in studio on Wednesday for all the golf content for the Canadian open all featuring Canadians this week smash like while you’re here code Mayo at Underdog fantasy to get a deposit bonus of up to $250 and fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off all of the membership level all right I’m going to go deal with my back trauma I will see you next time experience experience