Top PGA Picks for Charles Schwab Challenge 2024 | Expert Predictions

Welcome to the Stephie Smalls Show! In this episode, hosted by the insightful Stephie Smalls, we dive into the top PGA picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge 2024. Joining us as a special guest is the renowned golf analyst, Sam Wagman, bringing you expert predictions and invaluable insights.

The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of the most anticipated events on the PGA Tour, and this year promises thrilling competition and exciting opportunities for golf enthusiasts and bettors alike. Stephie and Sam break down the field, highlight key players to watch, and offer their top PGA picks this week. Whether you’re looking to place a bet or just want to enhance your viewing experience, our expert predictions will give you the edge you need.

Tune in for detailed analysis, insider tips, and strategic advice to help you make informed decisions. From identifying potential sleepers to highlighting strong contenders, we’ve got all the golf tips this week covered. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to stay ahead of the game and enjoy the Charles Schwab Challenge to the fullest.

Be sure to like, comment, and subscribe for more PGA insights and weekly updates from the Stephie Smalls Show. Let’s make this week’s golf picks a success together! #pgapicksthisweek #golfbetting #golfpicks

are you [Music] ready welcome back to the Stephie small show doing it a little bit different with the pre-recorded this week we’ll see how it goes keep it rolling uh hit the Subscribe and like button if you have not yet done that big congrats to the winners of the pool last week Sam Wagman is joining me Sam how’s it going doing well doing well um you know slight recap of the PGA Championship neither of us went home particularly thrilled with the results neither of us had Xander we did have the Xander placements though and uh obviously we both loved Bryson last week just not enough to bet him outright so it’s times but uh Charles Schwab this week should be an absolutely Banger of a tournament with a new and refreshed Colonial Country Club out there yeah can I be negative about the xand I’m going to be negative about Xander for a second so I’ve been betting Xander top 10 obviously every single week because like you’re going to lose your shirt and that kind of goes into this like everyone that was still betting Xander sorry you’re not back even back to even like you’ve bet him so many times that that probably bar barely got you back to even so I don’t feel that makes me feel a little bit better if I want to be pessimistic about it that I wasn’t on Xander because I don’t even think I would get my money back and I think I’m doing that with the top 10 yeah I I feel like wander um just I feel like just a Floodgate is going to open like everything we’ve been saying about like Cameron young and couple other guys who are like so close to winning but have like get to win uh and Mander obviously it’s the major tournament barrier like I think it’s just going to be floodgates are going to open and elevated events as well like the guy is just not been able to close and now that he knows how to close and a major at that I think it opens a lot of possibilities so I think people will use that as motivation they’re going to have worse numbers now now we’re probably going to see more of like those 9 to1 to 12 to1 numbers for Xander instead of the you know 14 to1 to 16 to1 that we’ve been getting but still I mean the guy is definitely playing like the second best golfer in the world and truly I don’t think there’s that huge of a gap between him and Scotty when when Xander at his best just we’ve he can do Samuel starting out of the gates hot right now I love it I don’t see it I’ve said it so many times this year he’s playing Immaculate perfect golf if you can say that there is perfect golf Xander shley with the just you know irksome portion of not being able to close a damn tournament until last weekend he’s been playing perfect elf yeah I think they’re in the same like I you know I don’t think the Gap is as big as probably my reaction to that comment was but let’s talk about Charles Schwab we’ll stop uh talking about Xander here congratulations to him finally very nice it makes Klay also an even bigger loser which I love of course because not man kley on this show Charles Schwab uh you kind of mentioned there was a renovation last year like for the most part it’s kind of largely unchanged like there’s little stuff 13 18 certain things but I don’t know that the playability is be much different it should play a little bit harder which is nice uh I know everyone was uh bitching quite a bit last week about the scores of the major it’s kind of just this like Treeline positional golf course you know you’re going to get rewarded off the te on approach uh putting plays a piece here but really that accuracy off the team with your mid irons anything you want to add to that yeah so they they talk to Jordan Speed and obviously speed is like among players he is the Colonial Country Club guy um when it comes to just relative you know um course history at this tournament and his reaction to the renovation was just that you know like you said the playability not really changed that much they changed all the green complexes and the T boxes to kind of make things a little bit more updated a little bit more modern uh give golfers a little bit more of a test there but they didn’t really change the golf course layout they changed you know the the what’s under the golf course like they changed the irrigation systems yeah um I also noted that SP said this course is playing as firm as possibly it’s ever been playing so I think we’re going to see another single digit finish this year last year I think a Milana gillo won nine under if I’m correct it was some and uh it was nine or eight and uh I I think it plays harder than that I think we see another you know uh single digit finish here and that that firm and fast is definitely gonna be a nice you know welcome factor to the surprisingly solid post major week Fe field that we have here so I’m excited to see what they have here I don’t expect much to change about the way guys play it uh you know just going to be interesting to see those green complexes and see if they give anybody any fits but like you said um this is going to be a putting contest without the high scorers it’s going to be who can put best on these new and kind of undulating greens yeah the winning scores have only pushed Beyond uh 15 under twice since I graduated high school so uh it does play a little bit more difficult relatively strong field um can’t get some guys that pop you see some older guys uh do pretty well here too but let’s get right into smash or passes you brought him up um my lady boner usually bet of the week every week my Jordan spe um Smasher pass T20 plus 110 yeah this is a smash for me uh like we said with spe like this is his house uh you know on courses that he’s comfortable with he’s not only from the Dallas area he’s just crushed this course lately a win three T three t2s four other top 10 the guy has just done everything here uh and despite the fact that he missed the cut last year um but I think he’s just been playing some better golf you know we’ve talked a few times in the past few weeks about how spe golf this year has just not been up to his normal standards and I think he’s kind of starting to turn that around there uh he still still working out the approach game he still lost Strokes in four of his last six but I think in a place like this be is going to figure out what he needs to do to win I don’t think he’s going to overthink it like he’s been doing in the past couple events for him his birdi or better percentage is always solid here um his play around the greens like he knows this course and I think that is is as big a factor as one could play uh in a tournament like this where it’s a new course layout or not new course layout but new kind of renovation and style and I think him having lived living in the area and playing it often I think that’ll give him an edge over this field so I’m willing to take the plus money on the top 20 here I will smash this yep I am smashing I would love to smash Jordan spe I am smashing Jordan Speed T20 plus 110 um last week Al the first time he hasn’t really bled too many strokes on approach there like you said very consistent here this is actually a great place for him to get a get right spot he also didn’t raid out well for me which is the first time in quite a bit quite a bit so I I like that as well you talk about his driving accuracy this is his type of course um he likes to play the a little bit more challenging where he likes he’s able to get creative he’ll probably put himself into tons of weird spots that he can get himself out of um really great off the te last week at as well so I am with you on that we’ll move on here to smash or pass starting to see his name pop up a little bit mad McNeely T30 plus 138 you love a good mcne play I really don’t is the thing it’s he’s playing good golf he’s playing good golf like uh and playing well in difficult scoring conditions um the only thing I worry about is his strok skin approach Is Not Great lately only 88 uh in difficult green and it gets worse when you switch to bent grass on the model so not a huge fan the ball striking is good the TD green game is good um it just is whether he can he can have it this is probably going to be a pass just because it’s a little bit of a stronger field and I’m not completely soled yeah and I think with guys like this because I’m I think I’m gonna pass as well I wanted to get there um there quite a few people that I think are sharper on him this week T30 again we’re not asking for much right but like you look at his approach from 125 out and that worries me and what really worries me too is his driving accuracy isn’t impressive and for guys like this I at least want their driving accuracy to be pretty decent we know he can be an elite putter he’s off some recent good form but if he missed the cut would I be shocked I mean you look at his results the last four years t52 cut T20 t32 he has gained Strokes the last six time six times he’s played but you know yeah I him I guarantee this guy’s gonna finish T he’s gonna finish t38 like I I I could see him sneaking out of that yeah he um 22% of the approach shots last year were from 1 15 to 175 he ranks 116th in that yeah um for me and I’m I’m just I’m not quite there like you you want to be pinpoint enough and you want the you know fogy avoidance and uh you birdie records to be good enough with that I’m just I’m not quite there with him so uh this is this is got to be a pass for me simply because of that maybe since we talked about so much like I might sprinkle on first round leader or maybe do a matchup to make myself feel better but outside of that I am going to pass at this time moving on to uh Mr PeeWee Herman uh Brian Harmon smash or pass Brian Harmon outright 35 to one so I heard you guys talking about this on the Mayo show great job on that by the way um this morning and I wanted to get there especially with venzi throwing out the top five like that that’s absolutely crazy like I I think it’s a little sharp and I definitely think this is a place that he can go but I’m just not quite there I want to I’m gonna pull up his uh his finishes here he’s got a handful of finishes in inside the top 10 yeah also a handful of finishes outside the top 30 nothing that screams that he was close to a win even with those top 10 finishes courtesy of like final round 65s he has a few where he was in contention then shot himself out with 73 or 74 I I don’t know I I don’t think we’ve seen he’s put together four above average underpar rounds here once or twice and it was several years ago the last time he did it so for me I’d be in on him at the top 20 I’d be out on him at the outright um the putter hasn’t completely been there lately for him neither has his approach game he’s only gting on approach in two of his last six events uh he’s lost Strokes in three of his last seven putting which we almost never see from Harman uh I don’t know I’m not quite there he his his driving accuracy isn’t going to matter that much this week driving accuracy is almost negligent when it comes to how much it matters at Colonial so I think I’m just going to pass on the out right here I’d be much happier to take him at the top 20 I think it’s plus 155 it’s a good number yeah I honestly forget what I gave out on Mayo because I know I was on him as well I think I gave out a 20 or a 10 I’m fine with either of those also like a top 30 at almost even money at bet Rivers at minus 106 like I do not hate that by any means uh top he had a top 30 finish at G he gained nearly six Strokes on approach again big emphasis on that approach uh game this week he plays well on these short courses he’s also had eight top 30s and 11 appearances at Colonial like it’s good but I mean it’s not like we’re not talking not great yeah um I also [ __ ] hate betting on him so that’s an immediate knock um somewhat good course fit he does have the ability to pop off with the putter he also has the ability to not play very well uh I think I am going going to I’m not smashing the outright I will give uh the top 20 but again like if they’re just trying to get some bank roll action a minus 106 on him to finish top 30 feels pretty good off of his his performance yeah I’m I’m with that nearly even money like that that’s that’s a play that I would make if I had that Rivers yeah absolutely okay here’s a name that actually not a lot of people are talking about and a guy that I’m excited to get your opinion on on smash or pass Daniel Berger top 40 plus 115 I had a feeling you were going to bring you know something out here that’s interesting and I have not like so much as watched much of Daniel Burger since he came back I don’t think they’ve been showing a lot him in general he he really had I mean he’s been playing all the lower events like he played mytle Beach finished t36 played the CJ cup finished t13 that’s his only top 30 finish of this it’s only top four this is only top 40 finish of the Season actually no that’s not true sorry Waste Management finish T28 um but I don’t know B burger burger scares me I haven’t seen enough of him to think that he has fully recovered from the back issues um you know we’ve seen both sides of that we’ve seen zot Torres who has shown the ability to finish like really highly on some leaderboards and then we’ve seen Burger who really hasn’t done anything uh quite yet and I I’m I’m assuming that a lot of that is uh I think he’s unconditional status I don’t think he’s I don’t think he’s on a full card so he can’t play the full series of events which is why um this list of tournaments does not look that great outside of the Phoenix or the waste management but I don’t know stats haven’t been that great he’s he’s losing a ton of Strokes putting uh not really gaining on approach that much G gaining off the te where again it really doesn’t matter that much this week I don’t know I’m really hesitant here the top 40 isn’t a high barrier for him and I can’t remember the last time he’s played the Charles Schwab T20 in 2021 he won it w he won it in 2020 I don’t know 2020 was his best season by far looking at the number looking at his finishes that was a you know just him bunch of top 10 there but I don’t know I I’m not willing to I’m not willing to put it there his best stat is driving accuracy and again that doesn’t mean much on this course so I I’m Really Gonna I’m really sketched about his putting that that’s really where I’m sketched about and on a course where these green complexes are going to be brand new and pretty T tough and tricky if we believe anything with what we heard I’m just I’m not I’m not there with it okay so you’re passing on Daniel Burger okay I’m smashing Daniel burger at top uh top 40 plus 115 I also when I put my final card out which I have been so lucked days go about um I you might see a top 20 on there I’m not gonna lie I think like his approach play has been better he’s gained the last couple which again we said it’s kind of spotty with the way that he’s playing right now so it’s hard to like totally know what form he’s fully in I’m kind of [ __ ] really in on this um he’s fifth on approach from 150 to 175 the last 20 rounds didn’t play last year obviously uh I believe that was because of the back t23 T20 he won it t53 first and good drive percentage if I want to start pulling things out of my butt I can short game like he has struggled but I think he’s improving enough and this is obviously a course that he’s fared well at before so kind of like speed a a good uh put it together type place for him top 40 at plus 115 for a guy that’s won it before and is in horrific form like I’m [ __ ] down with that so I’ll smash it okay all right I I mean I can understand it’s taking a swing and it’s it’s a low barrier so yeah I mean I don’t like despise it like I think there are better bets on the board probably around that range but I mean if you want to Target that you know by all means all right let’s move on smash or pass CZ top 30 plus 105 he is 50 to1 to win so again like Burger’s 100 to1 50 to1 like that just seems like such a big gap for me I don’t know why I’m H I know I I know why but it just seems like a lot yeah we we’ve had we’ve had some we’ve had some circumstances of of bayen who like really looking good like the American Express there was a period of like two hours where I thought he was going to win the American Express yeah um you know played really well in DP World Tour event the isps Honda um a couple weeks ago finished T3 in that uh I mean 16th in the Wells Fargo he’s been putting some quietly very consistent golf together he’s only he’s only had one t or he’s had six straight T30 or better finishes uh before the miscut at the PGA last week and the putting’s been terrific the approach has been pretty solid the around the game has been good I mean he’s he’s gaining Strokes so I do like I do like Bez here I heard a funny a funny quote from Pat Mayo this morning on the show and basically it was feels like a very solid course that bayen hook can attack for three days and then completely melt down on Sunday and fall out of contention uh which is why I think the T30 is an easy play here this definitely seems like that type of course where he can you know kind of attack it with the good approach and his putting if it’s on form like will will be an asset here and then you know kind of just you know floats away a little bit because he’s not really at that point where he can close out a tournament but he still stays in that range of T30 20th in bogy avoidance uh 14th in birdie or better percentage from the Fairway the proximity buckets are good so and he plays well in Texas and he’s an excellent win player so there there’s a lot of things that I like about bazan hoot um I know a I know venzi loves him for the outright this week I am not able to get there on the outright uh the number is just too short for me I’m with you on that part but I do love this T30 and you’re getting it a plus money as well yeah and I will have producer Ryan put the Mayo show that was a GU on with venzie in the description if you want to go check that out I did bet it because I told them I would and the last time venzi was on Mayo he gave out um oxe which I won that week actually I didn’t even know that they were on it but uh I agreed to get on CZ with them I think the top 30 is a pretty I mean like again it’s plus 105 I think it’s a good number I know he’s starting to get a little bit popular but like Mayo kind of talked about on the show too these guys can get really hot with the putter I do like quite a bit here and Bez is obviously one of those guys so I am going to smash the top 30 I did bet it at 50 to one I took the eway because I’m a coward and I couldn’t do it all the way but um I’m with you on that I think CZ too again another guy quietly having a pretty good year yeah he’s he’s gonna annoy you he’s gonna make some really stupid boneheaded mistakes and just hit shot short Left Right wherever the hell he can to miss the green because that’s what he does but he will have enough of those like wow I can’t believe this guy just stuck at three feet and you know it makes the birdie to kind of balance that out and get you where you need to go he’s really fun to watch when he’s playing Great Golf too he’s a very easy player to route for okay I have two more even though there should only be one more but I want to sneak a guy in I’ll start with the first one another one that I mentioned on the Mayo show but just want to get to it regardless smash or pass Tony fow top 20 plus 150 yeah um yeah I would I would not bet this guy outright if he was the only guy on the board yeah um but the top 20 I can get there’re on it’s just the putting it it’s always the putting uh but look look you know we’re looking at you know something that we have so surprisingly we’ve been recording this for 22 minutes and have somehow not mentioned the name Scotty Sheffer once yet that’s impressive for me that’s like a in Scotty Sheffer daddy rehab that’s very impressive that’s something that I could totally buy being real um but when got we’re talking about like guys that can outd Scotty um or you know a person player of that caliber FAL is definitely among those guys in that field like when at his best he can do it which is why I’m willing to go there on like a top 20 and play it but we just don’t see it enough to where he continually gets the outrights done so I’m not exactly ready to back him on the out right I do like the top 20 um has been playing some good golf lately t18 last week T12 two weeks ago uh obviously in Texas at the at the Houston open finish T2 so you know he has the finishes to get there like he he can get hot at a moment so it’s just the putter is the key to everything with him uh the putter will once again be the key to whatever he’s able to do here miss the cut here last year uh but T4 two years ago so he has the history of playing really well here I I will go are with this I’ll smash it all right yes and I want to include it just in case people don’t get a chance to check out that episode so I’m also going to smash Tony fee now top 20 plus 150 I’m with you on I do not trust him to win quite yet his results are very up and down we love that fow is like a very big family guy but some of that is like are we taking a little bit away from the golfing because we know he’s a great golfer um I know uh fineberg had mentioned in Mayo’s Monday show whatever it was that at this point he’s kind of just a guy that likes the t30s and paying the mortgage which is a little funny but no noct toino he’s a great golfer I mean he’s coming off that T8 finish like you said he led the field in Strokes gained approach gain 9.3 Strokes so I feel like ultimately I feel really good about this guys iron blade we know he plays well in Texas um putting always is gonna make you nervous here with you know what did he miss like a seven inch I mean he missed a ridiculous putt on uh I don’t know if it was the last day there but it was not pretty I also I know uh like I took driving accuracy into account a little bit more obviously than you did you dismissed it but he missed a shitload of [ __ ] Fairways last week and as much as like maybe you don’t want to hone in on it it was like pretty concerning how many Fairways he missed I I [ __ ] hate that here um he did gain strokes and 10 of his 13 starts off the te so I’m smashing Tony F now I think there’s enough to like I will say if he gets like a top 10 here I can see myself in the next couple weeks betting him out right yeah I I I do think he if anybody has like the like the skill to kind of go along with it and kind of just push through I think Fina does like last year uh when he missed the cut here it really wasn’t all his fault just didn’t didn’t play as well I’m trying to look for his stats for some reason cannot find them oh there it is uh two and a half Strokes lost with the putter last year that was that was the main culprit uh actually was the war worst putting number in the field averaged 2.44 Strokes lost with the putter better than him like I genuinely wonder if his Sun putts better than him does doesn’t he do junior golf or something it’s yeah yeah yeah I mean he’s been out there catting for him I hope he’s not teaching him how to put I hope he has some yeah let’s I hope we have a coaching for that uh before I was going to give another Smasher pass out before I do that um I’m going to post some of the Rhythm if you guys haven’t checked that out yet still you can get a free triy on it it’s been awesome um definitely a learning no credit card required that’s the best credit card yep uh top the top 20 with us Heath uh that was the one we gave out I think last week was the top five and I I’m so pissed that that like did not hit because he just had a brain fart yeah well he was also like crippled too like he was like dislocated a rib like I didn’t know any of this before B he had allergies like whatever the I heard about it on Saturday and was like what are we doing here guys the way they were saying it as if he was about to withdraw I’m like you guys are scaring the [ __ ] out like what are we doing here guys yeah yeah um okay before I was gonna ask you a smash your pass but I have a weird feeling that this is your done so I don’t want to take it away we’ll go right into quad D’s what is your done bet for the week um so I went back and forth between three different guys um wasn’t sure who you were going to settle on I know we both like uh like two or three of the same guys to win this week so I have a feeling we’re going to cross over here my D is Tom hogi um okay yeah I can tell from your expression well no I was gonna go the other way I think you’ll be pleased with who I pick but I’ll let you take the floor H yeah so I mean the thing with hogi is and the reason that he uh was down at 50 to1 is because he has not played that well in this event EV before but the profile is just very solid he’s solid B grass putter Theo the approach game has been absolutely magnificent lately with him you know played well in the PGA last week like I I just have a lot of faith in hogi that he’s playing his best golf currently uh he’s gained on approach in every single event this year which is should not surprise anybody that’s that’s his bread and butter but the putting has been really there he’s only lost in putting in two of his last 12 events so that gives me a lot of Hope for him and it’s something I really wanted to see from him you know going into this season he’s definitely shown that he can get there on the big stages before he did take down Pebble Beach um two years ago my first out rate win ever yeah so like we know that he can get there he’s not going to win he doesn’t have a ton of win Equity so you know the number is definitely a little bit higher than I would like it to be I got it at the top at 45 to1 uh that’s as far as I was one to go if it if it dropped below 40 which I suspect it will I had no interest um but I mean 10th and overall proximity 7th in 125 to 150 which is 20% of approaches and then 11th in that 150 to 175 which I said was 22.6% uh 42nd in good drives gain 26 in scrambling fourth and birdie or better percentage like he just he has the stats that back up a winner profile here and despite the fact that I know he’s probably going to let us down somehow like I can’t help but think he is a perfect match for this event doesn’t have to score too many um birdies he kind of just has to focus on the bogey avoidance and kind of just getting up and down on these greens and I think he can do it yeah he there’s like a huge chance that his chipping makes us want to [ __ ] blow our brains out but if it doesn’t if it doesn’t like you said it’s it’s just the perfect recipe for him um like I waited to bet on him a couple weeks I know I’ve been on him in the past this I kind of circled this similar to a lot of people did I know Mayo did um it’s just the perfect course fit for him uh I would love to see that I’m looking right now to see what his first round leader number is that’s 50 to one as well could be an interesting yeah that’s something I’ll something I’ll be on as well um so for my done since you took that one I’m gonna go back to H I had him last week I’d be remiss to not talk about him this is the guy that I could see go head-to-head with Scotty on the final day um he’s always capable with the putter he has there’s plenty to like about him here as well if you’re a big course history person three of his last four included what what we got here two top 30s and two top 10 um less of an emphasis on the off the tea definitely benefits a guy like Max hom he’s also very [ __ ] likable we always want to bet H I haven’t bet H fully outright I am G to do do this as an outright not just for my one and DS um and his approach is starting to look great the last few events so uh I used to hear tree lined and automatically bet maoma so uh we will go back to that uh give me H off from right done yeah does the driving accuracy worry you a little bit I I know like I’ve said I’m I’m not much into account but you know the driving distance absolutely does not matter yeah that doesn’t matter accuracy worry you at all for this event because I also I also have home all my card um but I knew I knew we were both gonna have like the same like relative guys and it it does scare me a little bit like I would be lying if I said otherwise I think it does and I’d have to like if I I’ll go back and maybe I’ll uh post a tweet later about it I’d have to look at how he does at like these like tighter courses like this because I feel like he finds more maybe I’m make I could be [ __ ] making this up to be completely honest so don’t trust me on it anyone that’s listening um I feel like he finds a little bit more success off the tea as far as like these tighter Fairways go like last year last year finished T9 and it was one of six total tournaments that he did not gain Strokes off the t uh in 2022 he only gained 0.17 Strokes off the te that’s one of his shorter numbers so he has like a history of playing well here despite not catching uh a lot of Strokes gained off the te didn’t play it in 20121 uh 2020 missed the cut gained a ton off the te actually his best off the te performance of the season um another low one yeah he he’s got a pretty consistent track record of not gaining off the te here but making up with it in parts of his other game so as long as he’s able to do that I think if he’s able to put it together off the te with his driving accuracy we could very well see him holding the trophy at the end of the week yeah absolutely I’m actually talking myself I he’s someone the number wasn’t good enough like he’s someone I would have really loved to be able to do in each way but at that point it’s not worth it to me I’d rather just bet him out yeah I just I just took the out I just took the out right absolutely all right let’s get to Dad bets what you got for me so I picked an interesting dad bet at least for myself um I [ __ ] hatte I can I already know I’m gonna hate it I think he might it’s sunj m to finish in the top 20 at plus 150 um he’s an he’s and he my my entry my entry note is the funniest part of is part funniest part the reasoning Sun Jay’s sunjay has played Four events at Colonial he has a Miss cut a top 10 another miscut and then a top 15 and I definitely did that backwards I definitely did that backwards that is I definitely did that backwards he he got the top 10 first and then missed the cut because this is the placement year he’s alternated he’s alternated the last few years with placements and the Mis Cuts we are now coming off the miscut last year which means we are ready for a placement this year and he’s playing some good golf lately prior to last week’s Miss cut quietly a solid couple weeks he had the T12 uh T4 at both the RBC and the W Faro and he won a kpga event in Korea and look he can heat up at any time like he’s he is one of the most talented players on tour the irons are starting to get back to normal for sunjay if we pull up his last um his last several events and what he’s looked at there from you know a ball striking perspective he’s gained in each of his last three on approach he’s gained around the Green in each of his last three um the putting was atrocious last week at the PGA Championship I’m not sure what happened there but we’re back to U you know some different greens here this week so or so I do think he could uh go better there with some different green complexes and the last time he contended which was in 2022 played really well um uh stroke gained on approach stroke gained off the T stroke gained around the green lost about a half a stroke putting but still finished T15 I do think he is a contender for this tournament should be a lot higher than the number that he’s at I think I may end up getting there on the outright for him uh which is currently sitting at 35 to1 okay he did not rate out as bad as I thought but again like you kind of said it I do think he’s a player which I guess you can say this about quite a few players as they’re on the PJ tour but he he’s definitely a player that I think can win any week because he’s someone that can have a spike week and it’s done like um what did you give out top 10 top 20 plus 150 he has his approach game been stinky or no it’s it’s been it’s been not great um it’s been really not good gain gained marginally in each of his last it’s really not good what are you talking about I did not say his approach game has been good all I said is that he has gained in each of his last three events marginally but he has gained oh great um the master the Masters is the one everyone looks at it’s like what the hell is that uh you know two and a half really had a good like approach week that I would consider good since like Century I feel like he he something’s been off with him this year but the the fin the the end of the week finishes have been there the last few weeks for him so I’m willing to put those to the side and think that maybe something has changed in maybe his mental mindset uh and I do think this is not a course that’s going to it’s hard like people people see the low digigit scores and they’re like oh my God that’s an impossible course I don’t think Colonial is that is that complicated of a course and I certainly don’t think it’s going to flx a lot of these guys I think the low scores are mostly attributed to the fact that you can’t overpower this course you can’t just take driver off every te you have to take a lot of irons off and a lot of woods and hybrids off of these T’s kind of just play your way around the positional Tree Line nature of the course but I do think sunj is able to beat this course very very simply and we have history of him playing very well at this course so I do think this is you know a good course for him to get things right back again it’s a top 20 something he’s done in two out of four um you know and I I do think he has you know what it takes despite the fact that the form is not there currently I don’t know I’ll report back this is a little bit I feel like we’re trying I feel like we’re trying to talk ourselves into it a little bit too oh no I already talked myself way into it I love I probably would have been like yeah that sounds sick but like I don’t know all right and my my dad bet is not something that I should even be uh bragging about I’ll start getting close to wrapping up here so we’ll rapid fire through our Dart and dumb [ __ ] bets but my daddy of the week lately been my quiet Daddy and I think I preface this with I think because of my season long team I I hone in on certain guys because I’m watching them every week and I’m watching their performance what their form is and it’s kind of like last year um like Shez Rey I was betting him top 40 every week and he was just quietly doing that for weeks on end um and he was winning me a crap load of money now we’re moving over to Father Hodes Lee Hodes um top 30 fake jerryatric plus okay yes very shocking for everyone that doesn’t know um I can’t believe you didn’t know that Lee Hodes was like not old is it because he has a grandpa name like what like what Lee Hodes is a grandpa name kind of like I feel like that’s like oh yeah my uncle Lee like Lee hajes like that’s an old man name um but he’s not old he’s younger than me uh his birthday he turns 29 June 14th I don’t know why remember that uh yeah top 40 is plus 150 and is top 30 plus 210 so I’ll give out the top 30 if you want to play safe and you just kind of you know this is like my Kelly craft of the week you could do the top 40 if you don’t want to go full in with me this is not as nearly as disgusting as that Kelly craft it’s not nearly as disgusting um leodes is playing very good golf very quietly had a fantastic week last week gained more than seven strokes on approach and two and a half putting he’s playing very solid I don’t think a top 30 has a lot to ask for him I’m betting top 20 don’t be crazy like that I probably will bet him each way I’m going to be completely honest everyone I won’t lie um last two years finished 29th and 35th and his win was at the 3M which is on bent grass and I think talking yourself into a top 30 is really not [ __ ] you’ve ah God damn it you’re gonna just do it it’s fun we’re having fun okay fine don’t do it I don’t give a [ __ ] this a Le show now what is your you’re in okay my yeah my my Dart my dog of the week is I can’t believe I actually wrote this down Lucas Glover is my dog of the week I like it um 60 to one he has do you know Lucas Clover has 16 starts at this event the guy’s been playing this since I was like in my head he’s younger he’s younger than leej is in my head he’s Lucas Glover is like ancient at this point um he’s only missed four cut in his last 13 attempts which like I like I’m definitely like grasping at straws here because that like feasibly is not that good but uh didn’t play it last year but does have the t23 T8 and uh t40 in last three of his plays and he’s got the recent stretch of solid go three top 20s his worst finish is uh t43 in his last six events um he finishes third and 12th in our two proximity buckets there 16th and Par Four scoring which probably is going to be my most important stat of the week um you know being Elite from that 350 to 450 range of the par Force that’s a huge way of how you beat Colonial that’s how Jordan spe has beaten this course for the past you know 10 plus years um but Glover is quietly quietly doing well so I do like Glover here it’s definitely a d throw it’s you know it’s it’s more it’s it’s more closer to the top than my usual triple digit dark throws are but I do like Glover this week I did put him on my outright card I don’t hate it he actually red out fairly well for me what is he sitting at 55 to one right now I took 60 okay okay he is currently 55 the one on draft Lings yeah GNA be crazy I won’t lie I still like the burger 100 one I don’t hate it at all I’ll be less crazy cuz you where are you seeing Burger 100 to one I I’ll tell you that you want me to name the books for you yeah sure it moved because everyone’s like oh I’m now I’m moving numbers I highly freaking doubt that I just see the 80 on DraftKings so I was just curious oh it has moved I see it too DraftKings is 80 FanDuel still has 100 Caesar still has 100 and bet 365 still has 100 he’s down to 66 to one at MGM and bet Rivers I have a question before we go to our before we go to uh the um the dumb [ __ ] bet um what is your thoughts on last year’s defending champion who is down at 110 to1 milliana gillo you have any interest on him uh no no okay me neither just check him no I don’t know maybe like a top 10 I don’t know I like I what a range there no interest to a top 10 that that’s that’s quite a range well like I don’t know I like I don’t I honestly haven’t looked at gorillo enough to be like I know what he’s been doing this year I know he didn’t rate out amazing for me um I think he’s G play like donkey this year yeah I don’t know about that I yeah I don’t know if I can get there two other names I just want to throw out as far as dog Dart go um Mark hubard and Aaron Ry are interesting I don’t think Aaron Ry can finish but I Ry Ry rated out really highly really well for me he was like fourth in my model I want to say he was seventh in mine yeah so big fan of him another guy that though I don’t know if but he doesn’t finish he’s like a top 10 maybe he’s like a top 10 finish yeah absolutely okay dumb [ __ ] bat because we have been blabber Mouse I’m gonna give oh I didn’t give this guy out you always get really pissed when I you didn’t give your dog yet you didn’t give oh I didn’t I’m gonna go with Burger okay I’ll go with burger just because I’ll I’ll stick with the train and then I gotta get this guy up Nate Lashley I love me some Nate Lashley to Top 40 plus 175 um honorable mentioned to straa top 30 plus 125 and low top 40 plus 190 so I gave out three there just for fun what’s your dumb those are nice my dumb [ __ ] bet is Adam Fenson 110 to one uh you can also you can get you can also get some intriguing placement numbers on him if I go all the way down uh plus 105 for the top 40 um and also the uh plus 190 for the top 30 I kind of like both of those a lot um someone you know I’ll get into senson real quick uh top six on stroke gain approach on difficult courses with bed grass greens Fifth and tia green and ball striking 17th and Par Four scoring um our good buddy Matt Ganon threw out a very interesting stat as well that I saw gained seven strokes ball striking of alalla last week third best approach week of his career uh he’s only played this course once he got a t40 in 2022 but you know it just has not played well this week but that’s why it’s a dumb [ __ ] bet because things can change um one other guy I want to throw out that in my mind is a near perfect perfect fit for this course JT Poston uh top 30 plus 125 there really like him always putts well on Ben grass and Bermuda greens um the approach game is is always solid for him and uh I I think he’s definitely a play that you know everybody can get behind it’s like that boring but definitely can have some ceiling to him but yeah I don’t hate that all right let’s round it out here uh I had Ryan pull this up for a new segment that I’m calling Mr mansplain of the week and I know I saw you like it um I had posted a picture a video of Scotty with his backwards hat on um under Colin coward who was talking about Brock pie and how he the leader because he keeps his hat straight and this [ __ ] [ __ ] um sorry Jim Jim at oregonor bur whatever the [ __ ] his name is Scotty Dash and many other players Dash did this during a tournament last year because it was raining so hard that when they tried to putt the water was dripping off the bill onto the ball turn it around to putt problem solved thank you you dick I was well [ __ ] aware I watched the tournament myself I didn’t and just pull this out of it wasn’t the that wasn’t even the context you were trying to give it in like you weren’t asking like why I joke yeah it’s like a Scotty’s a badass joke like sorry I wanted to talk about my father who just got arrested and is a bad boy now uh and the Man actually replied you’re welcome and I was like I was not thanking oh wow he was like I do not care and I’m like okay you are a cranky butt uh his bio I’m the narrator for the average guy opinion stated here on my own thank God honestly uh wish him the best this week hope his bests um hit or do not hit I don’t really care any last thoughts before we get out of here um please God I’ve I’ve been good just one out rght please yeah just an outright that’s all I need i’ love an outright I will get my full card up promise actually it up this week and said Force together to watch the full show if you’re still listening which I hope you are like if you have haven’t subscribed rate review and I will be back Thursday won’t spoil who I’m having on as a guest but new schedule a 700 PM show live to talk some NFL finally appreciate everyone and good luck let’s win some monies let’s do it watch and make it break itak it [Music]