Today on The Par 3, Stephen Andress and Matt Brown share their best golf betting predictions for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge. We look at which sportsbook betting apps you can find the best golf odds for our PGA picks this week and 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge best bets. We break down the field, preview the course, and give our PGA Outright Bets with real analysis. Plus our expert golf betting tips, free PGA betting picks and predictions. We also look at golf props and which online sportsbook has the best PGA Tour Odds.
00:00 – The Par 3: Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets
00:34 – Stephen Bet One
02:43 – Matt Bet One
04:27 – Stephen Bet Two
05:45 – Matt Bet Two
07:32 – Stephen Bet Three
09:26 – Matt Bet Three
Read John’s full Tournament preview here and betting card here:
https://www.thelines.com/charles-schwab-challenge-odds-pga-tour-golf-betting-preview-picks-predictions-2024/
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[Music] hello and welcome to the par 3 presented by the lions.com Matt Brown stepen Anders coming to you each and every week three plays from me three plays from Stephen quick and to the point and get you on out of here if you want the full details and breakdown of the course the tournament the stats all the things like that head over the lions.com and take a look at John’s article over there it is definitely one of the very best in the entire industry quick reminder everything we do absolutely free so do appreciate you guys subscribing hitting that thumbs up button and then any commentary you want to do in the comment section is great with us Stephen you’re on the box my friend all right so I ran numbers this week and I actually came out with Scotty Sheffer at plus 275 as Fair odds believe it or not so every one of my bets in this week’s video are very specifically for the winner without Scotty Market I want no piece of going against him so the first one is Tom hogi and you can get 33 to one the winner without Scotty Market couple of reasons why here Matt I think this week um Elite iron play is important I think accuracy off the te is far more important than power off the te and I think you got to make a few putts here if you look at what’s happened in the past and I know I’m not the first and I won’t be the last this week to talk about Mr hogi but if you look at the last 36 rounds here Scotty sheffer’s number one in the modeling Sub sub subscription that I have and hogi is number three ranks number two in Strokes gain in approach number two on par forest from 450 to 500 and we know he’s a winner he’s won at Pebble Beach another shorter course on the tour so it’s not like I’m getting an unknown guy who’s never won on the PGA tour before I know he’s been able to do it and I know his irons can get red hot and carry him into contention yeah hogi sixth overall in one of mine ninth overall in the other really the only thing holding him back and it’s we don’t expect it to be a big thing here he’s just not great off the tea um but this is supposed to be a less than driver course here that being said Sam Burns did win this event by hitting driver nearly 75% of the time so there’s it’s not 100% that this is going to be less than driver for all these guys but I think a guy like hogi who doesn’t drive it very well will choose to go less than driver a lot of times and maybe some of these stats that would hold you back from betting hogi again in this field 98 in total driving uh over the last 36 101st in Strokes gained off the T over the last uh 24 for him in this field but everything else he rates out so incredibly well so hopefully he keeps that driver in the bag there Stephen pulls out that three wood pulls out that five wood pulls out whatever it is and uh can do what he needs to do kind of the same deal for me on the guy that I’m going to be playing here um not one of the dudes that’s like known for being super long not one of the guys that’s really known for doing anything exceptionally well really but Aaron Ry rates out o second to only Scotty Sheffer in my model uh one of my models this week and over in the other he is third so he is second and third in the two different versions of the model uh that I ran this week if you look you go through on approach Ry red hot over the last you know six seven eight tournament something like that if you look at his approach numbers he’s going to be somewhere in the top five if not in the top three across the board here if you look at the driving accuracy which I weighed really heavily this week second in Fairways gained third in good drive percentage Greens in regulation going to be important because if you look the history you mentioned we played here the it’s not the it’s not always been the Charles Schwab but it’s at least been at Colonial for a very long time and and people that hit the greens here because they’re small like people that can hold the greens and just go ahead and be able to have a putt at it tend to have a ton of success and if you look at his greens gained he’s actually third overall in this field as well over the last 36 rounds so Aaron Ry look it’ll be a sprinkle on outright I expect Scotty Sheffer to win right I mean there’s no way for us to expect anything otherwise stepen so yeah there’ll be a wrinkle on rye outright mainly investing here in kind of like these top 10 top 20 markets this week Ry did make my winner without Scotty Sheffer card this week still got 45 to one on him despite removing sheffler from the odds so I was pretty pleased with that and I think you know John Hassel bow said this a lot Matt a guy that when he when he spikes for a course fit you got to play him first round leader too he’s done he’s had a lot of top five first round leader situations in the past so I love the look on Aaron Ry there number two for me is a guy who actually just missed the cut at the PGA Championship it’s sep straa but despite missing the cut he still gained more than four strokes on approach after doing it again the week before at the Wells Fargo gained more than three and a half Strokes on Approach at the RBC so three straight events here with very strong iron play gaining in putting in three of his last four measured events in Strokes gain we don’t have his putting results from the Masters but he finished top 20 at the Masters I think this is a really good fit for straa if you go kind of long long term here last 50 last 36 rounds he may not Spike as much for you but if you go last 24 rounds he certainly gets into the mix here and another guy who we’ve seen win on courses where accuracy from T to Green is certainly at a premium the Honda down at PGA National in Florida with all of that water uh he won there with gaining more than three Strokes on approach and uh gaining more than six putting when he’s won a couple of times in his career it’s been when he’s had a spike putting week to go with that decent approach play so I certainly think it’s in the range of outcomes that a he continues his strong approach game and we get one of those Spike putting weeks that we haven’t quite seen yet this season but we have seen in years past my second play is the woo SE wo Kim a guy that you don’t really think about as far as being super long or super anything like that off the tea well we’re not worried about that this week we’re worried about a guy who’s going to be putting it in the Fairway who’s going to be pretty accurate and weirdly enough Stephen despite the fact that he’s not one of the longest guys on tour he gains off the te he’s just really really good at maximizing what he is what he does do and if you look at total driving this week which is a mixture of stroke uh driving distance and accuracy SEIU Kim is eighth overall in this field in total driving and again he’s not one of the longer guys out there that lets you know how accurate he is and how much he maximizes what distance he does get out of that driver of his great on approach great uh pretty good uh great good drive percentage if you look at all that the only thing you don’t really like about him he doesn’t scramble all that well but hey Stephen if he’s hitting the greens then we won’t have to worry about him scrambling you don’t want the woo trying to get up and down but if the woo can keep from having to get up and down I think he can have a pretty good week this week as well again guy that is really just green numbers across the board for him eighth overall in one of my models and all the way up at third overall in the other so tons to like about see with this week again sprinkling on the outright totally expect Scotty sheffler to win but investing pretty heavily in the the top 10 top 20 markets as always a reminder um if you if if this bothers you getting chopped up remember to go to a book that gives you uh ties pay in full yeah absolutely sew definitely popped for me too didn’t get there on the uh on the winner without Scotty outright that I was betting this week just because I I always fear his putting but certainly a a very Prime Contender for those placement marks markets as you said so I completely agree with you there finally for me guy that won’t be any surprises if you’ve been watching this show over the course of the Season OE batia 40 to1 in the winner without Scotty Market I got him 50 to1 earlier one of the two of us has bet his ass every single week like seriously he he if he ever when when you come to Vegas I’m gonna get Stephen to come out or whatever like let’s go and let’s go and have a cocktail or something yoest one like I mean like listen yeah I mean I was at PGA Championship last week I yelled to him past the ropes that than for the outright in the Valero Texas open gave me a little you know finger in the air so my man baa you know how can you not like a guy who picks up his caddy on Instagram and takes her to the Bahamas and now he going to marry her like that’s that’s the stuff that dreams are made of my friend so baa now if you look at last 24 rounds he actually rates out number two for me behind Scotty it’s not just the storyline and how much fun he is you know this Lefty is number two last 24 rounds on approach overall number two on par force from 400 to 450 from par 3es 200 to 225 number three in double bogey avoidance the one thing we haven’t mentioned here is that scoring to par this week should be a lot more difficult than what we saw on a major championship last week the traditional score here has typically been well under 15 underpar for the winner and if we look at long iron play from 175 to 200 he’s number four in that category over the past 24 round so you know baa is a guy who still hasn’t developed great length off the the te at his young age but he’s an excellent ball Striker I mean the accuracy is typically never an issue for him and if we’re playing smaller greens here if we get him on the green this new broomstick putter has leveled out his putting from years past I love the number even though he’s already won this year yeah uh I should have mentioned whenever you mentioned sep straa another guy that rated out very highly for me as well so uh did just wanted to let people know that you weren’t on an island there when it came to sep straka uh my last play was coming down to two different guys um and and I really this one is a guy that I had to dig into a little bit more Stephen had to figure out why he was rating as highly as he was for me this is definitely a placement Market play guys but if you go in and all of the stuff that I was looking for all the stuff that I raid this week all the stuff that I loved over and over and over again Chan Kim kept popping up for me and you had to go in you had to really take a look at at what’s going on and why I would be looking you know why Chan Kim would be popping but then you go in and you take a look at this guy and it it’s like hey we got a T6 down in punana we got a T14 at the Valero on Chan cam we got a T8 by the way back at the Mexico open what do these all have in common yeah they are the some of the weaker field while Scotty Sheffer is in this field and while there are a couple of big names Stephen the overall depth of this field is not near what we have seen over the last few weeks and so with that I take a guy that has been able to kind of go into some of these weaker fields and been able to claw his way into a top 20 top 30 top 40 type play for Chan Kim and so a guy that if you look it’s it’s kind of one of those deals from a stat profile that it’s just weird the way that he popped up but it’s a guy that I like this week he is really good on approach of late really good on par fours of late really good at scrambling of late now longer irons leave something to be desired but listen not everybody’s gonna be everything except unless you’re Scotty sheff like nobody’s gonna have just green bright green across the board unless you’re unless you’re Scotty so for the most part and a guy specifically if you’re playing DFS out there he’s 6,300 over at DraftKings maybe a guy that you can kind of round out your your uh your lineups with this week but certainly someone I’m going to have in a top 40 maybe even a a YOLO kind of play on on a top 20 with him but a dude that I like the other guy that barely missed the cut for me talking about here was Nate Lashley another guy that was just popping really highly in the model someone that will be on my card this week as well if you think Matt’s crazy for mentioning Chang Kim I would just invite you to go to the lines.com homepage top right corner hit that Discord button go to the golf staff bets Channel and just see who else might have bet in Chang Kim this week just did you bet Chan Kim I did not but somebody else on our staff did somebody I very much respect look at that isn’t that something else look at you guys yeah you know what weird I mean he’s he’s 12th overall in my he’s 12th overall in my 24 round model like 12th I mean the irons are great right the irons are fantastic if you look at what he’s done he’s you know I’m looking at his profile he’s lost Strokes with his irons like once all season so great starting point yeah and you kind of look and it’s just like you know even off the tea he’s all right he’s kind of what I don’t know there’s just a lot that it just pequ my interest the puttting sucks right like he’s not a great putter but these are small greens and if he’s flushing it then sometimes like yeah you see that all the time with Colin morawa I mean then Sunday happens and he doesn’t make a single putt but you know that’s that’s how you get a guy like that into contention yeah and again we’re not we’re not expecting him to win we’re just expecting you know we’re we’re looking for we’re going to cash some plus money stuff on top 40s and top 20s and things like that and maybe make some money over in DFS as well if you play DFS guys everything we do absolutely free so do appreciate your support hit that subscribe button give us a thumbs up go down the comments let us know what’s going on or if you just want to talk about this back and forth with a whole bunch of people who dig this as much as you do head over to the Discord Channel lines.com upper rightand corner that is also absolutely free we have conversations going on not just about golf but any sport that is going on any sporting event that is coming up you can find some good discussion over there with some other people who are as interested in all of this as you are for Stephen I am Matt good luck on all your Charles Schwab bets
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Christiaan bezuidenhout