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hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 Charles Schwab challenge DFS tactic show we’ve got a chaotic forecast to look at the ownership projections and everything else you need to optimize your lineups and dominate this week in DFS for the Charles Schwab challenge got a lot to get into let’s not waste any time all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money there are a lot of great golf analytic tools out there no doubt about that I simply believe fantasy National is the best go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description of the video there are links to all of the social media first off my uh X in Instagram where earlier this week I posted research around the previous 12 winners maybe it’s 11 uh winners of the Charles Schwab challenge going back to 2012 the pattern uh or the things that those winners uh share in common leading into their win at Colonial and also the players in the field this week who also fit that criteria so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the week on the PGA tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contest that I play that comes out later this even evening after calls calls the DFS tactics show uh so if you want to see those pieces of information give me a follow over at X finally for social media gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your week of preparation and he continues to update you throughout the week with his own version of course history recent form and if you are a subscriber to his article which is free to do by the way you’re going to be able to join us in his sub substack chat every Wednesday night as we continue the DFS talk over there we talk about Game Theory our favorite areas of the price board players that we’re fading scared to fade but are our top low uh price plays and so on you want to be able to join us in his substack chat the only way you’re going to be able to do that is if you a subscriber to his article so go show him some support follow them over on social media as well lastly we are Live Chat is open in addition to the poll question which I have typed out I want to hear from you all in that regard who’s your winner this week um how much do you think the renovation is going to play a factor which we’ll talk about here in a moment um how much do you think the win’s going to play a factor who are you pivoting to fading away from all the good stuff that we normally talk about on a DFS tactics show so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 Charles Schwab challenge and we start as we always do on a Wednesday evening over at the super forecast at windfinder and before we start covering that let me talk to you about the poll question how much are you factoring the renovation of colonial in your thought process this week are you factoring it in a lot moderate amount a little not at all um of course we talked about this on Monday should have talked about it on Sunday but uh quite honestly I simply forgot that the course went through a renovation on Sunday night and then hopefully corrected you all or corrected myself informed you all of the necessary changes you need to think about in terms of colonial for this week and moving forward so I would love to hear from the community how much you all are factoring in the um renovation to Colonial the forecast for Fort Worth uh in fact they are under a tornado watch as it is right now looks like they’re getting absolutely pummeled with some rain at the moment with that however we look at the forecast for tomorrow and Friday Friday looks like winds are going to be really really calm however I do want to emphasize that they’re supposedly getting a whole lot of rain so if you are at least somewhat local to the area would love to hear how the weather is hopefully you’re safe with the tornado watches uh but would love to hear the uh the the weather report uh if you are somewhat local if you are getting a bunch of rain cuz that would make the course very very soft tomorrow morning and with very little wind it looks like the Thursday a.m. portion of the draw is going to have a very very very significant Advantage even if the course wasn’t soft if it was just normal we would still give a pretty heavy advantage to the Thursday a.m. portion because they’ve got very little wind in the forecast for tomorrow and then the wind really really ped picks up in the afternoon and stays very consistent through Friday afternoon and then dies off a little bit so both days this half of the draw the Thursday a.m and the Friday PM appear to have a significant advantage and because of that I am going to be almost exclusively looking at Thursday a.m. Friday p.m. players they there are a few exceptions most notably and I have the uh tea times up over here off to the side so if you see me looking over that’s what I’m doing most notably Scotty sheffler is in the afternoon tomorrow um pardon me as I get everything situated here I want that there and I need this here sorry fumbling with uh where I want particular things okay so again I’ve got a pretty significant Advantage for Thursday a.m. Friday p.m. I’m going to be going there almost exclusively with the exception of maybe a couple of players as I mentioned Scotty Sheffer is in the Thursday PM wave there’s a couple other players that I that I want to like but it’s hard to deny the fact that the Frid or the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. half of the draw certainly looks like it has the worst end of it pretty clearly so take this information how you will maybe you aren’t scared of the um the wind and you’re going to play your guys regardless L again I’m just I I think there’s a very significant Advantage for Thursday a.m. Friday PM regardless players are going to be dealing with wind especially during the cut portion of the tournament uh whether whatever half of the draw they are on and if we zoom out take a look at the weekend there’s a lot more wind in the forecast as well Saturday sustained winds near 20 gusts into the upper 20s Sunday looks very uh Gusty as well looks like no matter where you are in the draw players are going to be dealing with wind so because of that when we moved to Fantasy National our top performers in moderate and windy conditions in the past couple of years Scotty Jordan spe Denny McCarthy Max hom Adam Scott Ricky fer Harry Hall Patrick Rogers Justin Rose and sunjay so definitely give these players a boost in your considerations um definitely use these in tiebreaker scenarios these players have generally played very well in the wind the past couple of years scrolling on down a little bit more uh Colin morawa Carson Young Chris Kirk Andrew Novak Adam shank Brendan Todd Eric Cole Brian Harmon Mark hovert OA baa those are your top 20 in terms of players in the wind the past couple of years and then the other side of that coin the players who have not played well Kevin kizner Carl Yuan Tom hogi Matty Schmid Wesley Bryan Justin low has been very bad in moderate and windy conditions he’s been okay in Wy I mean it’s fine gaining a quarter of a shot per round but he’s been really bad in moderate um let’s see Martin trainer camoo V jagas Davis Riley again we’ve talked about Tom Kim quite a bit this week um he has played very well in the windiest of conditions in the moderate conditions he’s been pretty bad so that’s what drags him down Matthew neith web Simpson Troy Merritt so on you can see the players who have not played well in the win the past couple of years um with that let’s just go ahead and get straight into the mixed condition model uh and then start talking about the price board and and the rankings that I have for this week um and Scotty Sheffer is not number one surprisingly um so would be interested to to hear from you all in that regard as well the mix Edition model that I have made for the Charles Schwab challenge this week I have 20% in stroke scan approach talked about this quite a bit on Sunday and Monday it’s just the preferred shot type here at Colonial um ended up not using any off the tea um I I got uncomfortable the more I looked at the pattern of off the tea um yesterday and into today with off the tea and distance each year the past four years declining in importance so instead I just put a little extra percent in approach and that’s why I ended up with 20% in Strokes gain approach especially with the amount of wind that is uh seemingly in play this week at Colonial I really want to emphasize players who are going to be very good with their irons I did this last week with the PJ championship and I really really really liked the results that I got how I ended up on players like Victor hin like Matt Wallace and some of these others so I’ve got putting in the last 24 rounds up to 10% this week as I looked back on the previous Champions even though I did not explicitly say it uh in the research that I posted uh limited to 140 characters and whatnot the full the putting form of the past several Champions I mean going back all the way to really 2015 I think boo weekly in 2014 kind of bucked this trend a little bit but from 2015 on even a milon algo last year they had very good form putting coming into the tournament I’m talking in the past two to three months and it’s not just on bent which I’ll talk about here in a minute I mean we’re really starting to come into the portion of the PGA Tour schedule that features bent it’s mostly been Bermuda and probably more so poet trivialis and Bermuda or poet trivialis overseed Bermuda bases so just a lot of good putting form coming in to Colonial has been uh very Paramount at least for the Champions so 10% in putting just Flatout Strokes gain putting in the last 3 months or 24 rounds whichever happens first I do not want to ignore the fact that these are bent greens and they are they have played fast every single round for the past 3 to four years so I am looking at 5% in terms of our fast bent green Specialists but I am more so inclined at looking at who’s in good putting form but also looking at perhaps a little bit of some bent specialists 10% in Greens when scoring is Rel uh scoring is difficult relative to par with all the wind Colonials played difficult for the past two to three years anyway I don’t think the wind is going to help um The Players score any better considering the amount of wind that’s that’s uh in the forecast so with these greens being small I just want to see who hits the who hits greens or plenty of them uh when scoring is ult uh because if the players are hitting the greens they’re giving themselves essentially very good opportunities um I know that’s not technically True by definition but small greens you’re going to be pretty darn close in terms of uh proximity to the whole relative to the PGA tour at least this metric we didn’t talk about at all this week and the credit goes to Gabe on this one and again if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to um be able and and have access to um knowledge such as his that the the greens around Colonial are so protected by bunkers that instead of looking at around the green more often than not if the player is having to chip or or pitch or whatever it’s probably from a bunker so that’s why I wanted to look at sand safe uh in the recency who has been doing well in sand safe so um this is kind of taking the around the green portion of the mixed condition model uh just focusing on Sand saves 5% in Bird’s gained when scoring is relative uh scoring is diff difficult relative to par but as we talked about all week the bogey avoidance is much much more important so 10% in bogey avoidance when scoring is difficult relative to par this is another straight copy from the PGA Championship that I uh that I had last week in that mixed condition model and again really really liked the results that I got from it so taking this um with me this week as well so 10% in bogey avoidance but it’s not all just about the bow giveaways you do have to get a some amount of birdies so I wanted to see both of those 5% in proximity 150 to 175 I ended up including this in the mixed condition model the more I talked myself through it Monday night the more I started playing around with making the mixed condition model the more I liked the idea of having this procs 150 to 175 considering uh the majority of the players who have played well here have done well from this range not to mention the majority of approach shots come from this range as well so kind of a kind of a killing two birds with one stone essentially with that um you know the the the good form of players who play well from this range and the fact that the most uh number of approach shots come from this range rounding out the mixed condition model 5% in total par 3es didn’t uh separate any range let skip ahead a little bit 5% in par fives look there’s only two par fives here so they are quite mitigated in importance instead I would have loved to have put some more percentage in here you can maybe argue the to take the extra 5% I put in approach and bring it to the par 4S but I have 5% in all par fours 5% in 350 to 400 par 4S and 10% 400 to 450 and because of the lengthening of the course I do have a slight suspicion that the 450 to 500 may play a little bit more important than what we have seen in the past but until we get that data next week we won’t know so I I wanted to stick with what has what has been known for Colonial the past several years is that these short par 4S are very very important but I did not want to ignore the 450 to 500 there are three of them on the scorecard now so I think they might play or they might have a little bit of added significance but without any data to back that up I didn’t want to overemphasize it so only 5% there that is the mixed condition model that I have made for the week some obvious weaknesses uh if things turn out uh different if off the tea is a major factor I’m going to be quite weak to that since I don’t have any off the tea I am quite worried about not having any accuracy off the tea uh that is something that I have seen many players and and you know other pundits uh in the DFS Community talk about as how Fairways are such a big deal here so I don’t have anything in terms of off the tea at all no Fairways no good drive no off the tea so I’m a little worried about the lack of accuracy uh at least off the tea I have been focused solely on the accuracy of the irons so if off the tea does matter I’m going to be you know weak uh if around the green uh in general matters not just sand saves I’ll be weak you know if the par fives play more important the part 3es all those that’s you know usual for every week but those are the two big weaknesses that I think uh that I that I could Envision come next week is that especially the accuracy off the tea being a big factor and I don’t have any of that in the model so anyway there’s the mixed condition model for this week’s Charles Schwab challenge we will move to Microsoft Xcel the reveal of my ranking and as a reminder for those of you who are uh returning viewers if you are a new viewer for your information my rankings are based on three criteria the FC rank which is a straight numerical ranking based on the mixed condition model that we just covered uh the metrics and the percentages that I have in them course value is an attempt at giving a player a numerical value based on how well they have played that course the past 5 years yes the colonial went through a pretty extensive renovation so you could argue to not have anything in course value but until we know for a fact that it’s going to play completely different I didn’t feel comfortable doing that because Colonial has been the most consistent PGA course uh on tour I mean it’s held this event every year since 19 46 so if the renovation doesn’t change how Colonial plays then we have a very good idea on the players who play it well uh and and the shot types and the metrics that uh perform well here so kind of hedging to the side or the the um angle of the renovation not uh factoring in too much or not changing how this the course plays too much and I could be wrong and that could be another another area where I’m incorrect uh come next week but that is what the second criteria is based in my rankings is this course value of course the or the lower the number the better and then lastly we are playing DFS we are trying to find unique options compared to our fellow contestants so projected ownership per fantasy National is also a factor in my rankings you will note that I don’t factor in anything in terms of half of the draw or wind or anything like that that’s why we cover windfinder at the beginning of the show and for um situations that appear like there’s a clear half of the draw that’s why I um have the leaderboard and tea times up off to the side so we can talk about that as we go through uh the rankings here but I don’t I don’t inherently put that into my rankings so for the Charles Schwab challenge as I teased earlier in the show Brian Harmon is actually my number one player ahead of Scotty Sheffer when all things considered because you see purely by the Numbers Scotty Sheffer is number one and it’s not close but when you factor in how well the players have played the course the past 5 years and projected ownership that’s where Brian Harmon uh edges out Scotty so Brian Harmon is my number one player Scotty second CZ Christian bazen who third Denny McCarthy fourth I’m not in love with that Andrew putam Fifth and I’m also not in love with that rounding out the top 10 Max hom Tony fow CT pan Lucas Glover and AA baa um you can see Denny McCarthy is getting helped quite a bit by the fact that he is relatively low owned per fantasy National um and I mentioned how I didn’t like it uh I talked about him a little bit on social media how he has struggled here at Colonial sry right let me clean off these glasses here he struggled at Colonial he is only two for five the past 5 years here you see the course value is is a lot higher than what you would want especially you know compared to somebody like Brian Harman and Scotty Tony feno has played this course uh exceptionally well um Lucas Glover has played this event very very well so I do have some concerns with Denny McCarthy considering he has not traditionally played this course well I’m also not in love with Andrew putam up here now yes he is he has played pretty darn well here but the fact that I don’t have any off the tea is what really is contributing to his rise because he just he kind of struggles off the T distance and a little bit with accuracy and the fact that I don’t have any accuracy in here um is probably why putam Rises a lot of the metrics that that we gathered he’s been really good at he’s been pretty good with his irons he’s actually avoided Bogies pretty well especially when it’s difficult but a couple of things to note he is really struggled from the proximity that is most prevalent here at Colonial and he has struggled with par fives as you can see there so I’m not in love with McCarthy and putam being fourth and fifth I understand why they’re Rising but I just wanted to um explain that everybody else including CT pan I um completely agree with butti has been on been in great form yes he missed the cut last week at the PGA but he’s been generally in really good form Glover anytime you’re emphasizing irons pretty solid but CT pan has played pretty darn well here top 25 in irons hits plenty of greens so as a 6K play somebody to to really think about but enough of rambling about my rankings let’s see where our fellow contestants are going at various prices in um on the price board and see who the players are that we may want to Pivot to uh and fade away from to try and build our optimal lineups so in the five digits in the 10ks we have four players this week we have Scotty sheffler at 13,300 col morawa at 11,000 spe 106 and maxom at 104 I will tell you now these two have the bad end of the draw Scotty Sheffer and Jordan spe are teeing off tomorrow afternoon which means they’re also getting the worst of it on Friday uh with Friday morning’s Gusty winds is extremely hard to ignore Scotty Sheffer if you are willing to do so you’re going to gain a whole lot of uh leverage you’re going to gain a whole lot of uniqueness on majority of the DFS contestants that you play against no matter what uh style of competition that you play cash games 50/50 gpps um if you’re willing to fade sheffler you’re going to gain a whole lot of uniqueness and that’s and that tea time is worrisome especially because I do think col morawa is going to be pretty good this week he’s on the good half of the draw Max hom has played very well here he’s on the good half of the draw I like both of these players it would be different if I did not like these two at least from an analytical standpoint point but because I do I’m going to be willing to take a chance I’m going to fade Scotty Sheffer I can’t call it a full fate I’m sure I’ll have him once or twice just to You Know cover my ass but I am certainly not going to be 20% on Scotty Sheffer I’m not going to probably even be 10% on Scotty Sheffer he’s going to be a minimal play for me trying to gain a whole lot of uniqueness um and I do think he has the potential the potential um to struggle by his standards U considering the terrible draw that um that he has received moraba yes the irons still don’t appear to be very good but they weren’t very good at coming into the PGA and that didn’t stop him from playing very very well maxom has played very very well here at Colonial and recently so I like both of these players and that’s where I’ve been going in the 10ks Jordan spe is a complete full fade for me a little bit dangerous because he is played so well here at Colonial but um the irons haven’t been good he’s he’s really struggled recently in these shorter par fours so I’m not I’m not crazy about it I’m not I’m not crazy with speed but if you’re a big big believer in course history you don’t want to ignore him but he is on the bad half of the draw so in the 10ks I’m going to use plenty of Colin warawa I’m going to use plenty of maxom I’m going to use very very little of Scotty Sheffer and if he plays well which again he’s the number one player in the world you know it’s well within reason to to think he will play well I will lose but I’m going to take a pretty big chance this week and and use very little of Sheffer and I’m going to be completely out on speed moving into the nine K fenale me Lee seu Kim Harmon sunj hogi Scott and Harris English uh I’m completely out on Tom hogi despite the fact that he uh rated 12th in my rankings again he has the bad half of the draw he’s in he’s playing in the afternoon tomorrow he’s not played particularly well here um and and there’s several players I like in the 9ks anyway yes the irons are great he’s actually been putting very well which is which is odd for Tom hogi I expect that to start to normalize um I I he’s just generally not a good Putter and if he starts gaining Strokes consistently on the greens then we’ll have to reevaluate but until he does it you know over a an extended period of time say six months 12 months then I’ll take notice right now I think this is just a small sample size of him being hot so I don’t want any part of Tom hogy this week uh if he plays well I will lose so right off the bat Sheffer spe Tom hogi if those three play well I will lose I I’m not going to have any Tom hogi I’m not going to have any spe um in the 9ks I like Fen now he’s got the good half of the draw but um I don’t know uh something something just doesn’t seem quite right 16% is quite a bit to factor in uh for ownership uh he’s also Al kind of struggled with these shorter par fors I like fenale but I’m not as high on him as maybe seventh would insinuate if I’m not using Scotty and not using you know spe and I’ve got to be using somebody it’s Harmon this is the chalk I will eat in the uh upper portion of the price board I love Brian Harmon this week you see the course value he has played very very well here at Colonial he’s also got the better end of the draw teeing up tomorrow morning I really really like Brian Harmon um Adam Scott also has the good half of the draw he didn’t Rite out particularly well yeah it’s worth a look Harris English I like a little bit uh mostly because he’s been in very very good putting form generally putts bit well anyway um so in the 9ks I’m going to be using a little bit of f now maybe maybe not as much as you would think considering he’s seventh um but I’ll be using him I’m going to be extremely overweight on Brian Harmon I just think he’s going to play extremely well this week no exposure at all to Tom hogi he’s a full fade I’ll use a little bit of Harris English and I’ll I’ll dabble in a little bit of Adam Scott sunj I’m I’m still I I just don’t know like he’ll he’ll play well one week he won’t the next I I’ve triy I’ve given up trying to figure him out until he starts at least being somewhat consistent I do not like the fit for minu Le at all you see the course value he hasn’t played well here and SEIU has not played well here either he hasn’t putt well he doesn’t putt bent generally well at all anyway uh he missed the cut I think I think he missed the cut last week of the PGA having rated out very well so I’m I’m much lower on seiw as well moving into the eights Love Christian baz hoot this is some more chalk I’ll eat I don’t care playing he’s he’s actually playing really well lately despite the fact that he missed the cut at the uh PGA Championship he actually if you dug into his stats he actually wasn’t that bad um he just lost quite a bit off the te and it it wasn’t a great fit for him I don’t think Valhalla because it’s so long and he and bazan H is not long this is more of a more of the style of a course that CZ should um play well voids bogies number two putter on Fast bent Greens in this field number one in sand saves in this field so I love Christian bazen ho this week again I mentioned I’m not nearly as high on Denny McCarthy um as it would suggest you know him being fourth having said that he is on the good half of the draw he is the number one putter in this field he’s the number two bogey voer in this field this is the classic example of what are you going to believe are you going to believe the analytics uh the numbers are you going to believe the course history and how he has generally not played well here seeing him at 9% that’s probably worth giving him a pretty good look but just just understand you have enough reason to not play him because he he’s generally not played Colonial well so I I’ll probably like Adam Scott I’ll probably sprinkle in a little bit of didy McCarthy but if I’m up here in the Upp rates I am all about Christi J baz hoot I actually don’t mind Billy hell either uh don’t go crazy with it because he’s actually not as popular as you might think or he’s not as unique as you might think he he would be I actually don’t hate it I really like Justin Rose a lot this week and he was one of the players that I gave a casual mention to last week for the BJ championship any top 10 um I really like Justin Rose this week you see this course value he is in the past five years he’s been one of the best players at Colonial he’s a former Champion here top 15 in Greens when it’s difficult top 10 in bogey avoidance when it’s difficult top 10 in fast bent putting so I really really like Justin Rose and I think he’s going to stay pretty unique even though he played so well at the PGA and he’s also one of these players who is on the good half of the draw um moving down into the lower eights um Keegan maybe um anytime anytime we’re on bent greens i’ pay a little bit more attention to Keegan because despite his putting woes in the past he’s generally putt bent pretty well you see top 10 and fast bent putting third and birdies when it’s difficult so he’s not afraid to go low especially when it’s difficult so I really I I I I’m going to use some Keegan Bradley and then at 8,000 I love Thomas dietre love Thomas dietre this week um he’s on the good half of the draw yeah uh GNA be pretty unique I think give me all the Thomas dietry if he does not play well I will lose good evening Darnell thanks for jumping in chat much appreciated um if you want the extended explanation you know make sure to check out the show um uh re-watch the show but uh it is the good the good half of the draw is the Thursday a.m. Friday p.m. both of those days um the Thursday a.m. portion of the draw is getting the better end of the Wind but it’s good to see you in chat um hopefully you are ready for the Charles Schwab Challenge and uh and going to have hopefully a successful week so there’s a look at the 8ks uh it doesn’t look like many members of fantasy National are in here except for maybe C Bez which again I’m going to eat that chalk I love C Bez this week uh sep stro is G garnering quite a bit of attention um he’s on the good half of the draw not necessarily you know thrilled about it but I understand it it’s just a little bit too much ownership for my liking but I understand it it’s probably a good play I’m just more so in these more unique options in the akks the Justin roses the Thomas dries who are still on the good half of the draw moving into the upper sevens yes OA batia rated out top 10 but he is I no he is yeah he’s on the bad half of the draw that’s what I thought he’s teeing up tomorrow afternoon so be be a little wary of that yes he rid it out second um by purely by the numbers but you see he fell all the way to the 10th because his one time yeah small sample size but the one time he’s played here it wasn’t that good he’s also pretty popular he’s on the bad half of the draw I’m going to limit my use of OA batia that’s for sure when I talked about sez and chalk that I’ll eat the other piece of very big chalk that I’ll eat is Aaron Ry I think Aaron Ry fits Colonial very very well um you see he has played not necessarily the best which is a little surprising I think it’s only once maybe twice uh but but conceptually this feels like a very very good Aaron Ry course so I’m going to use a whole lot of Aaron Ry if he does not play well I will lose probably be Overexposed to him even though he’s sitting at 17 and a half half per fantasy National I also kind of like Taylor Moore he’s on the good half of the draw so take a take a look at Taylor Moore um you know top 15 at the PJ nothing to sneeze at uh generally just kind of Fairly solid all the way across here you know average to good nothing really Elite except for par fivs and the par fives are quite mitigated here Burger has played very well so kind of the inverse of the Jordan spe argument uh kind of the inverse of um Denny McCarthy you know the analytics love these guys like spe speed the analytics don’t like but he has good course history McCarthy the analytics like he does not have good course history um Burger is is much like Jordan SMI in that regard the analytics don’t seem to like him but he has very very very strong course history I figured I’d mention it I’m not going to be there but he has at least shown Signs of Life recently instead in the upper sevens uh if I’m not using Aaron Ry or if I’m trying to get a little bit of uniqueness he’s burned me several times in the past and I understand if you’re going to be a little bit hesitant I’m just highlighting him cuz he’s on the good half of the draw um hits plenty of greens still when it’s difficult generally putts bent pretty darn well I know the irons aren’t you know quite there I’m just highlighting it CU he’s on the good half of the draw um hubard yeah I would like hubard but he is going to be popular and he’s also on the bad half of the draw so in the upper sevens I’m going to use Aaron Ry but I’m actually going to use some Taylor more and try to get off of a lot of the chalk of Aaron Ry but I’m still going to use Aaron Ry this is chalk alite so I’m going to using quite a bit of of both of these guys I will dabble a little bit in batia but he does have the bad half of the draw hub’s got the bad half of the draw I’ll probably throw Ricky in a lineup or two only because he is on the good half of the draw moving into the mid sevens uh Lucas Glover going to be very chalky but for good reason when you emphasize irons you always got to think about Lucas Glover avoids Bogies plays these short par fours exceptionally well going to be going to be chalky no no doubt about that but oh whoops meant to do that over here um Glover does have the bad half of the draw so bad half of the draw and how popular he is might be enough to push you away wouldn’t blame you e root uh I I apologize I just don’t have these memorized ekro is on the good half of the draw I do like him but I don’t like the ownership I’m not nearly as high on Andrew putam as it might seem and I think he yeah he he has the bad half of the draw too so I’m not nearly as high on him or shank really for that matter as it might might seem so in the in the mid sevs I I will still probably end up using Lucas Glover a little bit just because he has played so well here I do like Austin ekro I just don’t like that ownership moving to the low sevens couple of players that I I want to highlight for you all I want to like everything about Lee Hodes I do I I really like Lee Hodges the player that week there are two problems he’s actually getting a little bit of ownership at least per fantasy National so he’s probably not going to be as unique as you might think despite the fact that you know he has struggled a little bit on a few things iron’s been good putting’s been good he generally puts bent well anyway and he’s third in sand saves the issue is again the ownership and you might guess he is on the bad half of the draw he’s teeing up tomorrow afternoon so those two things really hurt Lee Hodes I don’t blame you if you want to use him once just understand he’s not going to be as unique as you might think he will be and he does have the bad half of the draw um another player that I I want to like is Rio hits atsun but much the same we don’t know if he likes this course yet or not he might he might not but he’s on the bad half of the draw so um just be mindful of that but I do like the player I just don’t like his tea time so I’m really not much in the low sevens Patrick Rogers maybe a little bit because he does have the good half of the draw you see the irons have not been good lately um I’m playing him more as a as a unique kind of oneoff maybe if I would have used a Lee Hodes I might throw in a Patrick Rogers just for the uniqueness if it kind of fits in my lineup uh construction you know in that price point if I’m in that price range or whatever um but I’m not not necessarily in love with it so I’m I’m not much in the low sevens I’m really kind of bottoming out around an Austin e Road or a Lucas Glover um because when we move to the sixes and the fives I do have a couple of suggestions for you all so in the 6ks I do want to give you all a couple of mentions the first is CT pan rated eighth in my rankings I like CT pan quite a bit the only issue the only issue CU he he’s played this course fairly well he’s pretty unique irons have been good he’s okay putting the short par fors he plays very very well Fifth Fifth in the proximity that is most prevalent here at Colonial there is a lot not to like with CT Pan the one thing that’s holding him back might guess he’s on the bad half of the draw so just be mindful of that I’m absolutely going to use CT pan a little bit I want to use him a lot but that tea time does scare me so instead the mad scientist play of the week if you will my mad scientist play last week was Matt Wallace and for two days I it made he made me look like a genius and then he you know shot 80 bajillion on the weekend and made me look just kind of average but the mad scientist play this week is Harry Hall on the good half of the draw he finished third here last year again very small sample size maybe it was just a good week that’s possible but very unique good half of the draw the irons are okay he’s a much better putter than what is showing here he’s just has been in very bad putting form going back the last 24 rounds but the last three tournaments he has gained so he’s he’s he’s rounding back into putting form fourth in this field in fast bent putting sixth in sand saves I like a lot with Harry Hall he is the Mad scientist’s play this week so I’m going to be quite Overexposed to Harry Hall I’m gonna have more than 3% Harry Hall um couple others uh again I just wanted to highlight Harry Hall the most Manny Schmid is worth a look probably um I think he’s on the good half of the draw uh nope I lied he’s on the bad half of the draw so maybe not as much as I was hoping for um but rate it out well um purely by the numbers in good putting form the Iron’s been fine it’s worth a look uh I’m not as in love with it because of the uh bad tea time but worth a look but in the 6ks I’m probably going most mostly with CT pan uh and Harry Hall Justin low is also worth a look but he is pretty bad in the wind so just be mindful of that Justin low R it out extremely well he’s just bad in the wind moving into the 5Ks I do have one maybe two recommendations for you all um really one if you’re going to get greedy if you’re going to try to use Scotty sheffler you know and try to squeeze in as much up top as you can I do want to give you the name chz reevy he’s been lackluster here but not terrible he’s also been just kind of good at a lot of these things you know just kind of you know acceptable with the irons putting has been acceptable like his worst thing is is just historically his bent putting which scares you off a little bit sure but you know when you’re getting 5300 on a player that’s his irons have been pretty good Putter’s been decent lately he’s on the good half of the draw he’s decent in the wind I figured I’d give you the name chz re I would I’m going to play him once in my Scotty sheffler lineup just that’s what’s enabling my Scotty Sheffer lineup because I’m willing to come down to 5300 I’m not doing it any more than once again the mad scientist play this week is Harry Hall okay been going for a while we still got uh lineups to make so for those who play tiers contests tier one Scotty Sheffer Colin morawa Jordan spe pretty simple for me I’m actually going to go COL morala two of these players are on the bad half of the draw one player is on the good half of the draw that and the fact that I think I’m going to pick up quite a bit of uniqueness off of Scotty shuffler I expect Scotty shuffler to be insanely owned in a tears contest give me a bit of uniqueness or at least what I think it’s going to be a little bit of uniqueness you be calling orawa in tier one tier two H Fina Min Le seuk Kim and sunjay to me it’s between these two uh they’re they’re both going to be popular probably the two most popular plays in this tier so fortunately I took morawa in tier one um I’m going to lean Max hom but it’s pretty close I mean as you can see sixth and seventh in my uh in my rankings I’m going to H I don’t blame you one bit if you take F now tier three Brian Harmon hogi Adam Scott Harris English Billy horel again despite the fact that he’s probably going to be the most popular player in the tier I can’t over I can’t pass him up I’m going to go with Brian Harmon number one player in my rankings uh again I don’t want any part of Tom hogi Harris English is probably second for me in the tier if you if you want to think about trying to get a little bit of uniqueness maybe you took Sheffer in in tier one might want to think about uh English in tier three but uh with the construction that I have going going morawa tier one I think I can afford to take a chalky Brian Harmon in tier three tier four CZ McCarthy Keith Mitchell Justin Rose Chris Kirk SE straa Keegan I do like Keegan but to me it’s clearly between Justin Rose and sez every part of me wants to take sez and I think I’m still going to take CZ but Justin Rose and the perceived uniqueness is quite appealing because I do think Justin Rose plays very well it’s close it’s a lot closer than what the rankings would insinuate I will take CZ but Justin Rose is a pretty darn close second for me in tier four tier five Tom Kim Thomas dietry batia Taylor Moore Aaron Ry burger and Mark Hub because I’ve taken Brian Harmon because I’ve taken CZ I don’t feel like I can take Aaron Ry I think he’s probably the best choice in this tier but I’m also pretty darn confident in Thomas dietry so I’m GNA so give me Thomas dietry in tier five to kind of balance out all of the ownership that I expect from Brian Harmon and see Bez give me dietr tier five finally tier six make sure I’m not yeah I’m not blocking you all on that uh CT pan Michael Kim KH Lee Maddie Schmid Andrew Novak Chan Kim and Alejandro toasty I mean I talked up CT pan yes but I also know that he has the bad half of the draw where’s Chan Kim Chan Kim’s got the good half of the draw I know he’s raided out almost essentially dead middle of the pack for me if you’re scared of the tea time maybe think about Chan Kim but CT pain is so far and away uh the highest rated in my rankings that I’m probably just going to go ahead and take CT pay despite the bad half of the draw so this tier’s construction goes Colin morawa in tier one one I’ll take Max hom in tier two it is very close between him and fenale I will give a very slight Edge to H tier three Brian Harmon tier four CZ tier five we will go Thomas dietry and then tier six will go CT Pam all right let’s start making some classic lineups the lineups that we’re going to put in our gpps and try to climb the leaderboards and win us win us some money this week so let’s first start by figuring out what kind of lineups our fellow contestants are making and we’ll have to do two of them one for those who are playing Sheffer and for those who aren’t if our fellow contestants are starting with Scotty sheffler they are not coming down into the 5Ks at least per fantasy National much at all right Ryan Moore at 62% maybe Ben Martin at 7% maybe but otherwise they’re bottoming out of Justin low so if those are our boundaries that doesn’t give them a lot of wiggle room you see only 75 7600 per player so my D I have some serious doubts if our fellow contestants are going to be able to go into the 9ks if they use a Scotty sheffler if they do it’s probably a Tom hogy maybe a Harris English at the very bottom at the 9ks but instead we’re going to try and squeeze a sez in here for them considering he is about third or fourth in terms of um projected ownership and you see even with CZ I mean you’re all the way down into the into the low sevens for the rest of your of your team and there’s nobody really in the low sevens other than Lee Hodes garnering that much attention so it doesn’t appear at least for Fantasy National that you know these lineups with Sheffer can afford to go CZ even they might have to drop down even further maybe to a sep straa and then this allows them 74 00 per player it can be something like a mark hubard Andrew putnam’s also getting some some attention um if we try to balance this out ecro Glover putam it’s going to be it’s going to be 100 over so you know maybe they they maybe they try to find a oneof off from Justin low you know maybe they come down a little bit further Andrew Novak’s at 75% maybe but I understand this is 100 over I’m just trying to I’m trying to highlight certain areas of the price board here that it feels like our fellow contestants are going to be going to um if indeed they’re making these Scotty shuffler lineups 14% pretty heavy ESP especially in a smaller field it’s not a limited field but a smaller field only 132 players so that ownership’s pretty high if our fellow contestants aren’t going to Scotty um let’s say they try maybe a more balanced look maybe fenale sez who again I like both of these players I just think they’re going to be too popular to use together unless you really really really emphasize finding a unique play um OA batia definitely in this lineup construction Aaron Ry absolutely in this lineup construction you see 7700 per player much more of a balanced look here maybe maybe they come up to a Max Homa maybe that I don’t know if they can go all the way up to morala 7 200 maybe they could um but if they go something like Max hom who’s getting a little bit of attention not as much as Tony F now but um this is that you know that 7500 price range again you could go like a mark hubard and a Lee Hodes there about the same amount of of ownership that the Scotty Sheffer lineup had just a different variation of it or a different you know different style of line of much more balanced going hom again fena would jump this um ownership quite a bit uh and instead of Lee Hodes maybe they come up to an Austin e root or a Lucas Glover yeah 155% this looks like the probably the more common lineup I think would be my guess although I do think Scotty Sheffer is going to be probably 30 to 35% owned if I had to guess could be wrong so with those two style of lineups that seem like they’re the chalk uh the chalk for the week how are we going to maneuver around that well I told you when I went through the price board and and rankings and and whatnot I’m going to fade Scotty sheffler I know it’s a dangerous game to play it’s not a full fade I’m sure I’ll have him a time or two but I’m going to fade him because of that tea time being on the bad end of the draw because I like morava so much I like hom so much so let’s start with that Scotty Sheffer lineup because that’s not the lineup that I’ve been gravitating towards the most again with Scotty schuffler I have been um mostly going down all the way to chz reevy I don’t hate the chz reevy play at 5300 if you don’t feel comfortable going down there and I I wouldn’t blame you if you don’t you got Ben Martin might be a little bit too popular but somebody to look at who rate it out very well I’m going to me personally I’m going to save Harry hall for for the lineup style that I do next but you could absolutely take a look at CT pan you’re taking a pretty big chance here because both of these players on the bad half of the draw but CT p is giving you quite a bit of price savings U and somebody that I really do like this week but much like the um issue that we had uh with the you know trying to build the chalky Scotty Sheffer lineup from here I mean I really don’t know if you can go into the AKs if you do it’s got to be pretty cheap I think you could maybe get away with a sep straa or a Keegan I really like thas dietre so I think I would throw him as my as my number two and shuffler lineup that way I have enough money to maneuver around here in the sevens cuz again there’s not a lot I like in the low sevens Lee Hodes is is fine I just I don’t like the ownership I don’t like the tea time you can maybe think about Patrick Rogers but man he’s not been in great form lately I want to like hit satsui but he’s in the bad half of the draw so that’s why I’ve been very conscious of not trying to go too high um maybe Doug gim although I do I think he has the bad half of the draw as well the gim yeah he is one of the first groups off in the afternoon so there isn’t a whole lot in the low sevens that I’m crazy about um only because of the uniqueness I’ll throw in Patrick Rogers um he is uh I mean he even has the bad half of the draw um and then here again fill it out how you how you see fit maybe you’re not afraid of an Andrew putam um yeah I this is just this is another reason why I’ve not been making Scotty Sheffer lineups CU I just I it’s not the area of the price board that I want to be in um I know I looked him up earlier but I forgot putham bad half of the draw what about shank Shanks on the bad half of the draw like a lot of these a lot of these guys in here are on the bad half of the draw Grio I think’s on the bad half of the draw yeah so that’s when you start getting you know real real dicey playing most of your guys in the bad half of this draw um I mean dri is on the good side but there’s just not a whole lot in the sevens like Ricky was on the good half of the draw um Acro I think is on the good half of the draw I know he’s popular but yeah ot’s on the good half of the draw and then 7100 shoot you can’t even use Rogers like I was going for so it’d be gim hits atsun maybe you want to use the defending Champion Grio uh I’ll use hits outs because I like the player I just don’t like his tea time so you’re probably going to be fairly unique I can’t say it’d be a a completely unique lineup but you know I don’t think many people are going to diet this week and I do like him Valor is going to be very unique but it’s mainly the fact that in the 7ks where you’re going to have to live if you want to use a sheffler unless you’re willing to double six which I personally don’t want to if you’re willing to double six that opens you up quite a bit but most of these guys in the sevens have the bad half of the draw so the lineups that I’ve been gravitating towards I’ve been using my fair share of col morawa been using my fair share of ma but I’ve been doing my my balanced minus one build quite a bit bottoming out at Harry Hall and you don’t have to go all the way down to Harry Hall it’s just he’s the mad scientist play this week so I’m highlighting him in these lineups but you don’t have to go down that far I mean you can you can really make balance lineups work this week but I’ve been trying to get greedy in different ways up top maybe I do like a phix now Harmon uh sez and like a rose like just getting super just squeezing as much in the Nines in the eights that I can Justin Rose might be a little bit too much again this would be um this would be Thomas dietry who I’m pretty high on um take a look at uh uh Taylor Moore you know 7400 well within reason you know I know we just talked about putam I’m not necessarily as high on shank not necessarily lejes but I’ve been trying to squeeze in as much in the upper nines uh or excuse me in the nines eights and upper sevens and I’ve been enabling that enabling that by going to Harry Hall so if I even come off of fenale if I start this team with Harmon go with CZ again two players that are very popular Harry Hall is allowing me to do this with his uniqueness and his pricing Justin Rose would go into this maybe you’re not scared of aenny McCarthy he seems like he’s going to be pretty unique at least per members at Fantasy National you know I don’t mind throwing him in a lineup for two I’m just just not as high on him uh as the ranking of fourth would indicate because of his very poor history at Colonial but he’s unique Thomas dietre absolutely Taylor Moore again I don’t even mind uh batia although he has the bad half of the draw like this is the kind of lineup that I’ve been gravitating towards the most again squeezing a whole lot in the nines and the eights not afraid to come to the upper sevens it just so happened to fit toas dri at 8,000 but you’re I would be hard pressed to believe a lineup like this is going to get duplicated because I imagine most of our fellow contestants if they’re not going Sheffer they’re going to go morawa so if you’re willing to do a more balanced build and I call this the balance minus one since I’m willing to drop into the 6ks if you’re willing to do that kind of um structure of a lineup I think you’re going to be pretty popular and there’s a lot of good plays in the eights in the upper sevens that I like that also had the good half of the draw Harmon CZ good half of the draw McCarthy like this whole team this entire team right here is on the good half of the draw so you don’t have to worry about um that aspect of it how much are you factoring the renovation of colonial in your thought process for me I’m I’m going to I’m factoring it in a little very little um you see the course value here so I ended up looking at the past five years I do think it’ll change a little bit how Colonial plays uh I think the longer par 4S the 450 to 500 par 4S might have some added significance this week at least compared to historical years um of col but I’m factoring it in just a little so that would be my vote and then one and done um there are a few ways I can go I have not used morawa but I’m a little hesitant to use morava because if his irons are truly turning around like what we what he showed at the PGA I’m going to want to save him for a bigger tournament the US Open or or you know signature event so I’m a little little hesitant to to use morawa but he would be a a a very logical Choice myself I’ve already used Max hom and Tony fenale both so I can’t use either of these two these two would be good choices Harmon makes a whole lot of sense but my first click was CZ so right now I’ve got CZ Christian bazen as my oneand done selection this week I could be talked into Brian Harmon but I am I’ve got a pretty strong lean the sez right now as my one and done I want to thank Darnell for jumping in chat it was good to see you I want to thank everyone else out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing I always appreciate it I love what I do taking an in-depth look at statistics giving you a statistician and data analyst’s view of what he sees trying to come up with optimal lineups and finding unique players for you all to use in your shows thanks Gabe for jumping in chat there right at the end and a reminder that I’m going to be over in gabes substack chat we’re going to continue the DFS talk over there we’re going to talk about Game Theory our favorite areas of the price board I’m sure we’re going to talk about uh What uh half of the draw and the players on each half of the draw that we’re comfortable using and whatnot so thanks to you two for jumping in chat thanks for all the support for all the Wagers that you have made this week for the Charles Schwab challenge for all the DFS contests you played this week for the Charles Schwab challenge for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable
