DFS Golf Preview: Charles Schwab 2024 Fantasy Golf Picks, Data & Strategy for DraftKings

DFS Golf Preview: 2024 Charles Schwab Fantasy Golf Picks, Data & Strategy for DraftKings. Ben uses the Stokastic PGA DFS data to break down the course, tournament field, and best PGA DFS picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge 2024.

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00:00 PGA Strategy
1:30 Course Preview
4:45 Top Tier
11:00 Mid Range
19:00 Salary Savers

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#CharlesSchwab #PGADFS #GolfDFS #FantasyGolf

what’s up everyone Ben resi here for stochastic talk mpga yes the second major is in the books but no that doesn’t mean we slow down in fact there’s plenty more golf to be played starting this week Charles Schwab challenge got over 130 players in the field we’ve got sheffler morawa plenty of other big names a lot of randos in there let’s break it down we’re going to use the lineup generator we’re going to use the data Hub we’re going to talk about some of my favorite plays as well I want to welcome you into stochastic all things DFS take a look around like what you see subscribe to this very Channel but let’s not waste any more time let’s start to get into things before I dive into the plays before I dive into anything I want to talk about the course because it’s one of the you know the regulars uh Colonial man we we see this every week every week every year forever it’s technical it’s short irons putting Texas wind maybe you know we’ll check the forecast I don’t think it’s going to be anything crazy right now when we look at this this is a far cry from Hollow last week shout out to Xander congratulations probably should have mentioned that right off the top but before that let let’s talk about the course because that’s what I think is most important what do I want in a golfer when I think of who could succeed at this tournament who has succeeded in the past to me it does start with the ability to control your distance with your irons now that’s not breaking any news basically all tournaments you guys know uh ball striking irons that type of stuff it translates everywhere but you have a course here and a layout uh just two par fivs it’s more can you get short irons in your hand can you convert the P the putts I’m thinking like you know 125 to 175 in terms of those ranges not a lot of 200 yard plus type shots you don’t need to be crazy accurate off the te obviously it’s more technical you want to just keep it out of the thick stuff don’t do anything stupid getting up and down all the standard things but for me deemphasizing driving distance is never a bad thing and emphasizing ball striking irons again if you can roll it on bent grass that’s great but this is just a a course that we have seen time and time again it doesn’t box out the short hitters so if you’re not crazy off the tea and you got a lot of other things going on with your game in a good way you’re definitely in play for this layout now let’s get the lineup generator here we go super simple one of my favorite tools that we have across everything uh a really good way to get a cursory look and generate some lineups quickly so you go in I select the DraftKings we want to lock a player I’m going to look at the Sheffer lineups just because I think that’s an interesting build doesn’t mean that I’m going to be locking Sheffer far from it uh but you go and it starts to just generate your lineups you can save them you can discard them I’m just going to run through randomly and save a bunch so we can look at some of the ownership percentages the allocations and see what we got again this takes two seconds it’s that simple so obviously sheffer’s in all the lineups what does it look like well no surprise we’re completely boxing out the N9 and 10K range I think this is pretty telling look at all these lineups they’re really pairing up and peppering the seven and eights uh you know right here this is an interesting build actually look at minwoo he snuck in there 9700 then you got Rose Ricky double punt at the bottom here 58 and 51 I think more often than that they’ll probably look like this Sheffer lineups you know Denny mcuts three in the sevens and your favorite 5K option we’re going to get into the 5K when we get into the data Hub it’s something we have to do this week because of the product of having a guy that’s 13,300 on DraftKings it doesn’t mean again these are just sheffler Centric lineups but an interesting build an intering wrinkle I just have to see this one just for my own curiosity this is double pay up Sheffer morawa 7755 I actually kind of like to look at that um again this is the beauty o of lineup generator the link is below by the way if you want to use this check check it out for the week I really believe uh these type of of tools make all difference obviously if you want something more advanced The Sims and all that where there’s just you know we’re simulating the tournament but this is a great way generate lineups quickly this is a great way to get the data the projections the ownership customizable all that good stuff uh so we got a little glimpse into what I I could spend all day on this don’t worry we’re going to get into the players in just a second I just love love doing this spinning the wheel and seeing what we get but more importantly let’s start breaking down this field we’re going to rattle rattle through it I’m gonna go right off the top and just start talking about players honestly I’m gonna I’m gonna do this a little differently because again this data is there the projections leverage all of this will continue to update it’s why you want to be inside the ropes at every range basically top tier mid- tier and salary Savers I’m going to give you my favorite couple and one guy that I’m looking to short uh and we’ll do it like that so let’s get into the top tier here obviously we’ve got Sheffer we’ve got morawa spe hom fow minwu sewo Harmon sanj Hollywood Hogie Adam Scott and Harris English I’m going 9k and up for the top tier so guys that I want to talk about number one is Tony F now he’s 9900 I really like the spot he’s going to be pretty popular that would be my guess but I don’t think it’ll be out of control right now we just have him just north of 10% I would love to sign for that I think he might get updated a little bit and he goes a little higher 18th at the PGA he gained almost 10 Strokes with the ball striking he couldn’t putt he couldn’t really drive the ball which is atypical he’s working on a good year five straight made Cuts he was a runner up in Houston obviously uh that is in Texas as well Farmers the top 10 you know the wins they’re not as prevalent as a lot of people including me think they should be but Tony feno checks a lot of boxes the interesting thing about him aggressive second man conservative first man into lineup so if you go balance you could start with with fow no doubt about it and go from there if you’re aggressive you could pair fow with h fow with spe fow with morawa fow with sheffler that’s an interesting wrinkle I’m I’m on board with either of those I like Tony feno this week uh K morawa again it’s always a little weird when you have a a near Miss he played really bad on Sunday didn’t get it done against Xander he still came in fourth while striking was good around the green was ridiculous that’s a huge outlier for him not that he’s a bad around the green player but he was doing all sorts of things there but he’s starting to get it together he was third at the Masters Ninth at Heritage 16th at Wells Fargo and now fourth at PGA that’s what we want to see from this guy I mean allaround player and as good as sheffler is and of course Sheffer is amazing and I’m G to put him in the pool a little bit it’s a $2,300 difference between morawa and Sheffer I mean that’s the difference between a five mid fives and almost an 8K player that’s ridiculous uh that’s huge obviously these guys up top you know they’re going to be popular they’re big names what is there to say final guy for me in the upper range if I had to rank him and he was very frustrating last week uh and that’s sunjay I’m just gonna stick with sunjay again he’s $9,400 the game I really can’t get a good grasp on it but in some ways I I like what I see off the tea has been very solid that is not the the problem the irons have not been crisp but that’s not the problem either he missed the cut at the PGA because he couldn’t putt he lost 4.8 Strokes putting at the PGA in two rounds that’s absurd uh that’s just an absolutely terrible putting performance the week before it WS Fargo he gained six Strokes putting and he came in fourth it’s sometimes that simple to break down that’s a difference of nearly 11 Strokes on the green the ball striking numbers look basically the same Tia green over the last couple weeks but the results have been Wild ly different he fits this course he’s got experience here he’s not played well here kind of a mixed bag he’s got a 10th and a 15th peppered around some miscuts I don’t really care about that maybe a little thin to start with him but second man in no problem with that uh I’m on board with sunjay this week and then if I had to short one guy again it’s a top range I want to make it clear all of these guys are more than playable I think we know that by now for me though SE wo at 96 he doesn’t grade out well leverage wise right now I want to see where that ownership goes I may have a little in the pool but he’s not going to be a core play for me just not sure what exactly is going on he was just not good last week he’s also got some putting W just to speak you know try to be objective here he’s lost Strokes putting in four straight the irons have been fine and his ball striking numbers are not terrible in fact before the PGA you had three straight top 20s but I do expect that ownership to creep up the price is more than premum premium and it’s an opportunity cost I like minwoo I like fow I like sunj and I certainly want to get some of the big big names so you can have everyone there obviously again it is what it is in the top tier but if I had to rank them fow one morawa 2 sunj three for me let’s keep it moving let’s scroll down here see what we got in the mid-range so Bez is here Denny mcut Billy hoe who just appeared uh at the PGA and then just came and said s uh killer Keith Justin Rose who I called for a miscut last week not great Chris Kirk sep straa Tom Kim Keegan de Tre uh we’ll we’ll we’ll take each range kind of independently here yes I’m a broken record but I’m gonna back Bez I believe in the game and and if you know you’re on the betting side with OD choer we’ll talk about little betting in a second it’s been frustrating with Bez but on the DFS side it’s been more more than valuable he’s played well this year he had made six straight cuts before the PGA he didn’t have it he got eaten up off the tea a little bit and that’s a concern not at Colonial at Valhalla I don’t worry about that nearly as much here everything else is solid with him and he actually didn’t I mean he was he didn’t putt poorly he putted flat at the PJ that broke a stretch of eight straight events we had gained Strokes putting this is an elite putter this is an elite short game player irons come and go when when they are here obviously he contends he he could have should have won earlier in the year lost the AMX to the amateur he’s got a top 10 at vpar 13th at the Players 28th at Heritage 16th at Wells Fargo which is kind of ridiculous considering qu Hollow it’s not a course that I think of he was 15th at this event in 2022 21st in 2023 he’s gain Strokes putting there’s good B splits Bez just makes sense uh he’s basically neutral leverage which I’m more than content with I like him to get things started in the 8K range scrolling down uh if I had to give a second and third it is a little jumbled here I’m gonna go a little different with Keith Mitchell he’s someone first of all positive Leverage is always a good sign if that ownership holds true again this is early on Wednesday things kenon will update you would think well what do you mean it’s a short track why would you back a guy like that he has shown throughout his career he benefits from that this is a winner at Honda uh which which I think is interesting a top five at Pebble these are the type of courses for him he can Thrive at because he gets the club down he keep it in the Fairway and he’s still hitting short irons in because he’s got so much length 8600 more than a reasonable tag for him I have no problem going with Keith Mitchell and then just to go right next to him not Justin Rose but Chris Kirk Chris Kirk did not have it last week I’m just gonna try to buy right back at it putting can be an issue there’s no doubt about it he’s lost uh basically all the time take out the Masters because we don’t have strokes gain data seven straight tournaments with bad putting negative putting that’s not going to get it done yet he had made the cut in six of those so the ball striking is there can we get anything with the putter well going to Texas maybe a change of surface something like that it can’t hurt he plays this event every year he missed the cut in 20203 but he had made the cut in a like 15 straight years before that not even exaggerating he plays this every year uh it’s a course that he’s thrived at he’s got this trophy in the closet way back in 2015 Chris Kirk’s game fits this so I am fine with that this is a cool build if you go balance to have two or even three of these guys in the same lineup together if I was shorting a guy uh again it’s it’s hard to say that I would short Justin Rose because he’s only projected for a little ownership here I don’t have a lot of interest there if I look sep straa if he’s again a lot of these are are small deviations I I’m gonna have straa in the pool I think he’s a better bet than DFS play what I mean by that is I like the upside for him and he certainly can make or break a lineup when I look at it I I’ve got Kirk Mitchell Tomkin McKean who I’m indifferent to not in a bad way staka to me if he’s very po popular could be a lucrative short on some of my lineups here his irons have been outstanding his short green has been atrocious particularly around the green and we’ll see uh there’s definitely some boom bus nature not a ton of course histories missed the cut two out of three here I don’t think that really matters to be honest it’s a good range though all in all I like the eights uh gonna be over on the Range in general with Bez kiler Keith and Kirk leading the way second part of the mid-range here with the sevens you know baa Taylor Moore Aaron Ry Bing dingding 7800 I like this spot positive leverage I bet him uh not a guy that’s usually on my betting card just love everything about his game he’s good with the irons no doubt he gained almost three Strokes on the Approach at the PGA gained six Strokes at Byron Nelson and he came in fourth he has a top 10 at Houston I like that uh a good year here on tour there’s not much else for me to say I want exposure at this price point I like Aaron Ry quite a bit scrolling down this is a range again not a lot of ownership on some of these guys I think honestly Ricky is kind of interesting at 76 if he’s seriously going to be sub five% like this I will take some flyers on him now the game Ricky man uh he did make the cut and he flipped the driver which I like to see but his irons were atrocious short game is the short game he’s a good bent putter he’s made four straight cuts including the Masters in the PGA so I’m banking that a class drop in terms of the the field strength will help him he’s a top 10 here last year he plays this event every year I think Rick’s an interesting tournament play you don’t need crazy exposure to him and again that’s the beauty of this type of stuff it’s not about how much you’re playing it’s relative to the field you know Ricky was 30% owned obviously that would be underweight if he was 0.1% owned I would be overweight uh and it looks like right now he’s not expected to get a lot of ownership and we’ll see where this matures to but I do like that spot in general scrolling down a little more here uh you know there’s there are plenty of names Cam Davis is a guy that I want to mention first of all he jumps off the page with a leverage score and that’s because you know if he’s he’s not going to be popular at 7,300 it’s a name to consider Lee Hodes is right there and I think he’ll get some love off just an incredible showing last week Cam Davis is a wild card he’s a wild child he’s a dangerous player he missed the cut at the PGA I don’t really care about that he had made four of five or four straight before that so he’s coming in four or five made Cuts Elite scorer when the guy makes the cut he outscores his placement points we’ve seen that time and time again I don’t know why that would change here is it the ideal course for him probably not honestly but he’s someone again is there a little Keith Mitchell in there I am cherry-picking a little bit but a top 10 at the Players a third at Heritage these are technical layouts a top 10 at the this very venue at Colonial it seems like in some ways these type of courses force and funnel his game into an optimized position and I like that at 7300 he’s always someone that can really really help your lineups you’re not breaking the bank uh Cam Davis is an interesting play I actually think he’s an interesting bet someone that if you’re looking to that kind of stuff uh boom bust potential here and you don’t need a lot of exposure I am on board with that play so looking at you know in this range again Doug gim’s going to get a lot of love I get it shank’s going to get a lot of love if putam is this popular I’m not getting overweight no chance again keep an eye on the ownership it’s why you want to be part of the team here at stochastic uh you know we’ve got all these tools they’re constantly updated with new and better information as the tournament gets gets closer to getting started uh before I get to the salary Savers before I get to the cheapies I do have to mention uh I’m assuming everyone I don’t know why if you’re watching this on Thursday you’re extremely legitimate because it’s all the tournament’s already started so I’m gonna say for 99.9% of you you are watching on a lovely Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night I couldn’t appreciate it more love talk and golf on the other side of the fence I could say though is the betting side and if you didn’t know about Dinger Tuesday and what’s going on there it’s the Home Run promo from FanDuel and we as a team team put together home runs and we hit one and what did we do to celebrate we have made up odd chopper as I just brought up on the screen $1 just for a flash sale for a week but it’s just today so if you sign up on OD choper if you want to see the betting Tools in Action Sign up use the code Dinger the link is below or you can just go to OD chopper.com $1 for a full week you get Discord you get the tools you get everything so I had to mention that again it’s going away you will see this today and then you will not see it tomorrow uh just to celebrate because hitting home run hitting the Dinger play is awesome come on in another part of the stochastic family a great time if you are making some bets if you are betting some golf or other sports obviously I’m betting all sorts of things but we got to find some cheapies maybe some some bets as well in there as we scroll down Into the Depths into the lower ranges into the salary Savers we go so four cheapies and this is important because with Scotty Sheffer north of 13,000 you’re going to want to find some guys in the six and 5K ranges this week and there’s plenty of names here that I think you could look to uh as I scroll down again a lot of these guys I think are pretty interesting but the guy I want to talk about actually backto back CT pan and Adam senson two guys I like a lot in the mid sixk range not going to be popular CT pan fits this course not just because of course history but because of course fit which is is always more important uh I feel like I’ve said this about five guys already he missed the cut at the PGA but he had made five straight cuts before that that’s what I want to see he has gained in five of six with the approach he has gained in five of six around the green he has a third in Mexico this year he has a third at this very course back in 2019 he fits this perfectly off the tea is the weak part of his game he’s an iron specialist that at times has Spike putting will we get Spike putting your guess is as good as mine I like CT pan this week now if Adam sensing gets Spike putting we’re going to be in business but the chances of that are minimal right now I would say six straight made Cuts zero top 40s over the same stretch what I just said almost is impossible but it’s true uh the guy makes the cut and he cannot build on it because he is bleeding Strokes on the green so heavily right now he lost four Strokes putting at the PGA he lost eight Strokes putting at Wells Fargo he lost six Strokes putting at valbar he lost four strokes putting at Players the only time that he has gained Strokes putting over the last seven events has been at Heritage we need a better putting performance the irons are great he’s gained more than two strokes ball striking on the approach in five of six events I love to see that at 6,400 I love to see that at any price but at 6400 that’s a beautiful beautiful number uh and I’m on board with that scrolling down again I I think this is where skill set Stacks come into play like if you want to go bomber heavy for some reason it be different you’ve got Schmid right there if you want to go completely other direction you’ve got a guy like coocher uh Kevin TW Grayson I think at 61 is in play I played a little Grayson actually last week at the PGA I woke up on Thursday he was like five over it felt like I was like well Ben big mistake and he grinded it out uh Grayson’s a scorer and he’s 6,100 in this field I’m on board with that Sam Ryder guy’s good for an eagle or two um but this is where like most things it’s about the lineup you know I don’t think you want to go unless you have a read on a guy down here I’m not advocating going down here unless you have to but there are names for me Grayson I mention coocher and certainly CT pan anden in the 6K range 5K range it just gets more and more crazy Ben Martin Bermuda Benny maybe Ben grass Benny I don’t know uh hopefully he missed the cut at Myrtle Beach he wasn’t at the PGA Championship but it’s a it’s been a decent season honestly he was seventh at the Valera six straight cuts made uh made the cut at the Players Byron Nelson corales you know some of these fields he was good at Valspar another technical track he’s got experience on tour more than enough experience in this event he made the cut here last year he’s actually made the cut every single time he’s played here uh six straight now that spans over a decade because he hasn’t had all the starts in there but Ben Martin if you’re in a jam if you get to 5900 I’m fine with that uh one of the guys that’s in my pool as my favorite cheapies other side of that coin is a guy like Davis Riley Wild Man Elite scorer big big boom bust uh potential I I hate to say that in golf honestly it feel I cringe when I say it because it’s golf anyone could go out and win anyone can go out and miss the cut but when you just look at Davis Riley I mean this kind of illuminates it miscut miscut 14th miscut 30th it’s just when he’s good he’s great and when he’s bad he’s pretty poor he was 14th in Houston and he gained almost nine Strokes T to Green that’s what we’re obviously looking for they’re few and far between but they’re in the of outcomes a lot of guys down here I can’t say that about Davis Riley is one that I can you know Streelman I I think is a name you know he’s a short iron guy obviously Pebble um you know stuff like that and now we’re getting you know way to the bottom I’m not sure you want to get this crazy to be honest uh you know Robbie Shelton Stanger Merritt yeah I’m not it if you got guys down here more power to you I’m not going to have enough sheffler where this is going to matter for me you know and unless you really go aggressive I don’t think you’ll need to get to the lower fives to be honest you know I found myself I was messing around with lineup generator and I ran some preliminary Sims uh right here on this very page actually you know just scroll up you’ll see this is the data Hub you’ve got the contest generator the pre-contest simulator all part of the stochastic packages uh again come and check it out for yourself but I I didn’t see the need where I wasn’t getting to a lot of these guys down here just because the way my lineups fell uh it was more in the morao type builds Min wo even just didn’t need it uh sanj as well so for me little more balanced and a little more stars and scrubs this is a north of 130 man field standard cut and all that we are back the cuts keep that in mind you can’t just roster anybody and see what happens you do need to get these guys through the cut I know I re through a lot there feels like a Sprint when I do these shows solo but if you have any questions at all please get in contact with me at jazr DFS on Twitter I’m always on there happy to help if if you’re struggling with something you a question about the tools or you’re just like hey you didn’t mention Adam Scott what do you think of him let me know I I’ll be happy to answer and see what we got keep an eye on these ownership projections leverage all of it as we get closer to lock and most importantly let’s put a winner on the board let’s see someone at the top of the leaderboard with the stochastic Avatar love seeing that obviously we see it all all the time but let us know about it make sure you get your recognition uh and I hope to see you up there with with my name as well uh let’s see if we can get some magic I’ve had some good showings at Colonial over the years I love this course and I actually love this event and I think it’s a pretty good field all in all but I’m gonna bounce on out of here again appreciate everyone on the a chopper side Dinger Tuesday promo it is just running today on the stochastic side come on in check out these tools from lineup generator to Sims in action for yourself but most importantly just have a great great week ahead enjoy the golf thanks for stopping by [Music]