The Drive: Charles Schwab Challenge | Golf Picks & Analysis with Geoff Fienberg and Andy Lack

This week, Geoff and Andy take on the Charles Schwab Challenge.

At just over 7200 yards, Colonial Country Club (Fort Worth, Texas) is short by today’s standards and with plenty of dog legs dotted throughout the course it tests a player’s ability to strategise.

Typically, Driving Distance didn’t matter at all here, but surprisingly Kokrak topped that statistic when winning in 2021, and Burns was 3rd when winning the following year. It reverted to type last year once again with Grillo ranking 66th in driving distance.

In this Preview, we’ll break down the best picks for the tournament with insight and analysis from Andy and Geoff as we go in search of another profitable week.

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[Music] [Applause] we are back for another episode of the drive here at oddschecker.com I am Jeff fineberg with me is Andy lack Andy we circled the wagon quite a bit on the uh on the PLAYERS Championship you know some close horses uh Bryson Victor PGA you mean it felt like a play yeah a little bit easier than a Players Championship this geez I guess I had players on my mind because I was going to say was on this show certainly certainly certainly didn’t feel like a major golf course to me yeah um listen certainly and I had Xander at the Players I stuck with them at the Masters and while I didn’t have him at Wells Fargo I don’t know just coming out of that and then with the yeah the prices next week but hey congrats to anyone who either stuck with it seems like most of my friends who got there with Xander were people who were holding the line as opposed to like first time or like you know what I’m feeling Xander I never bet Xander didn’t feel as much of those as friends of ours who who who are just proud to hold the line and happy they got there listen I held the line on DJ forever so finally blind squirrel found is not at Oakmont you know but hey Xander major winner under 20 to1 Andy there aren’t many of those and those guys sort of are the um I don’t want to say destined but all of them always felt like a matter of time Bryson Dustin Jason day it’s a very short list of since we’ve sort of been doing this podcasting thing that guys have won their major championships their first major championships under 20 to1 that comes with a lot of expectation Xander spent a lot of Majors under 20 to one I don’t know I’ll let you do anything you want with this next little bit then we’ll move on to to Charles Schwab you can talk about the PGA in any way you want yeah I I like you experience the Xander heartbreak at the players and and and have experienced the Xander heartbreak many times in the past um it was a great week I I think both of us had about as good bets as you could have made without the winner um I was there were many opportunities throughout that final round uh where I kept staring at like Xander plus 140 there were times when hin was the live favorite and I made out I made out great I mean I I I I when it became a three horse race between Bryson and Xander and Victor and I had Bryson and Victor it’s about all you can ask for as a golf better particularly when you’re holding a 35 to1 on Bryson and a a 50 to1 on on a on a quote on quote broken havland I mean we’re talking hit pieces on the freaking guy’s form three days before the tournament which you know whole other podcast on this Jeff but our boy is back um as it pertains to Xander it’s a win for data okay it’s a win for data it’s a win for people who like to bet losers and I’m I’m glad this narrative is over okay because as much as you know I will be the first to discredit the golf course if you are discrediting Xander’s win okay they all played the same place you’re a loser there’s just no way to discredit it he played the course in front of him he played the team in front of him he beat everybody around him and all data points pointed to the fact that this was going to happen very very soon I have done entire podcast on the point that Xander is not as bad of a contention player as your eyes may tell you the data on this guy in final rounds is actually really strong and it’s a matter of if not when um I like you and many others experien Xander fatigue to the point where hey this just wasn’t the week for me but in terms of the list of guys that that I wasn’t benting that I would have been happy to see whenn Xander was pretty high up because because I I didn’t think a lot of the narratives surrounding him were fair and when you dive into the data with this guy like over the last five years the guy’s been a top five player in the world he just has by any metric that you want to look at um and so I know the caddy a little bit I’ve always been rooting for the guy our friend nagles like he deserves this one I become pretty close with Xander tracker who’s like a nice you know before you come out these freaking tracker accounts like those guys are in [ __ ] Middle School like this I yeah but I saw Zander tracker like his life has changed I don’t that good good for them whatever yeah sure you’re fan so I I’m happy I’m happy for Xander um and and I joked on Twitter uh Jeffrey you know you guys better think twice before you chirp us with your Fleet with our Fleetwood bets at Pinehurst you better think twice before you chirp us with our Fleetwood bets at TR because the point being is is like but I love Fleetwood yeah good I mean the point is it was a win for if you consistently put yourself in position the ball’s finally going to go through the hoop and a lot of people said it was never gonna happen with Xander I have the receipts a lot of people said no chance he can’t do it but if you put yourself in position enough times I don’t know okay the ball will go through the hoop good for Xander he got it he got it at 14 to1 good for for him did you get any did you walk out of the week up money no with you didn’t H you didn’t hedge all it’s not how I go I don’t care okay okay more ballsy man than I maybe if it should have made me no didn’t even didn’t even like cross who did it feel like to you was going to win on the back nine both because for at different times felt okay well maybe that’s I don’t know I don’t I um yeah know they both had their CH yeah both of them at times but br uh Xander’s just got that great ability to bounce back and I don’t I don’t want to litigate the course but it didn’t present any trouble there’s never no scary moments there’s never a scary shot and I would say I don’t have the same complaints that you do but it was but easy and boring and ugly is a horrible combo because it was easy and it was boring and there was no like feature or hole that like distinctively sticks out in my mind like at least the manade Limestone waterfalls didn’t do it for you no I’m a la you know me La Hoya is in my heart uh bolt up so I’ll defend Tory Pines but at least what it has when you pan away it’s not ugly you know Tory runs circles around this like yeah but I just mean like it’s not ugly like at Le this I don’t know okay let’s let’s so many people did it it’s it’s beaten through the ground we got another tournament this week Colonial Andy um quickly fullon redesign I’ve had a lot of luck here was part of the gillo magic last summer so that was a fun highlight for me as well as some other ones here but I’m not really familiar with what exactly they did here on this redesign despite already having made some bets so why don’t you just talk us through that for a moment here and tell us what you know sure well um we haven’t seen it yet but I mean listen I’m very familiar with Gil Hans he’s I think he is the best one doing it right now um this is the same guy that uh restored uh Southern Hills Winged Foot the country club LACC Sleepy Hollow fer Island Yale I mean these are I mean original designs of a hoopy Lac south I mean this is one of the best living modern architects in the game right now streamsong black um and his goal I don’t think Jeffrey is to to get into quickly about how it should affect our betting strategy this week you know he’s a the he’s the master of subtlety his goal is not to make the golf course different he’s his goal is to restore it to the architect’s original intent so what that’s going to look like is know the greens are probably going to feature a lot more slope and undulation he’s gonna probably do a lot of recontouring to Perry Maxwell’s original design probably open up the trees a little bit more he took down some trees open up the driving corridor um I don’t think it’s going to dramatically affect scoring in in any reason player profile then like what player profile I think the safest bet this week is I would give even more of a bump to approach play and specifically recent approach play because I think I know where Andy’s going here then they circling around it and and let’s just jump right into it then um how do you put this sheffer’s playing when I woke up this morning I still thought he could withdraw we’re not even at Tuesday yet Andy so I still think maybe I don’t think so so he just he goes home for a couple days and then he just he sleeps in his own pad yeah he sleeps in his own pad yeah fair enough the RO okay uh and I don’t know if people want to wait for for the without sheffler markets because I almost jok that I want the books you know they ask you to like confirm your bet responsibly I want to double confirm just remind me sheffer’s playing and are you sure you really want to do this uh but but yeah we don’t need to talk about sheffler if you think he’s going to win like whatever we we’re here to have fun we’re here to do it responsibly we’re going to make some Bets with him not winning this tournament you are all arrows skipping everybody flying right into that 30 to1 range Andy Tony feno who a week ago if we were talking I really felt like some others like this guy just doesn’t take professional golf seriously anymore what’s going on you know he’s got a big family he’s got a lot of responsibilities there’s a big morg morage he needs to pay maybe finishing 30th was just becoming his Vibe then the approach monster came back and just like that well I scoffed at the 100 to ones that were showing up a week ago sign me up sign me up let’s do it we had some success together last week so let’s be partners again here Andy but you make the more sophisticated sell on big tone I haven’t made the BET yet but I’m circling around it like a like a shark in the water I smell the blood I just can he make enough putts to win a golf tournament I just watched the putter he started out putting so well at the PGA and I just watched the putter go south and and as you and I know as seasoned Tony fenale backers I feel like the majority of the time that I have my most success on on F now is when he’s either like 14 to one and nobody wants to bet him at a birdie Fest weak field or he’s 100 to one and everyone thinks he’s stinks I don’t know how I feel about like this actually makes sense fale um when it’s this actually makes sense fenal kind of like Hideki like there’s kind of the Hideki Coral are when it comes to fenal is like you kind of want fenale and Hideki when they don’t make sense and the guy led the field in approach play at the PGA Championship as you mentioned so he’s my favorite I have certainly room to do it um but I haven’t made the move yet can I just ask you quickly you could super rapid fire this but like of the moral spe group who’s your favorite of those three okay I said this earlier if in a world where Scotty Sheffer with I’m not interested in any of them any of the three but if there’s a world where you told me right now Scotty sheffler with Drew and I can get in on any of them at their current price before it got slashed I would just take hom yeah he’s the biggest guy like it’s just the biggest price is of the three is the one that I feel like I actually trust to win a golf tournament these days you people go listen to Andy’s podcast I’m sure he will do a long form debrief on what the hell happened to col morawa on Sunday beside The Yips it was one of the most horrific putting things performances I’ve ever seen I’m sure Andy will will give you a his more in-depth preview on it but yeah asking question it would be Max it’d be Max just take the B most points I don’t want okay I don’t want I wouldn’t I wouldn’t take Jordan I know that I wouldn’t I wouldn’t yeah yeah well okay I I’m if I make a move at the top it’s it’s fenal at 30 the the guy have bet where I’ve started my card and and I’ve walked this guy in this is my official pick to win is it’s Brian Harmon at 45 to1 he’s down to 40 now um is a perfect golf course for Brian Harman and speaking of a player that uh hit his irons s Harmon gained him with six stks an approach last week at the PGA um I like him on short courses with small greens he raises his approach approach Baseline significantly on those golf courses he led the field and Approach at TPC sross I don’t think that’s a coincidence and you know just firm and fast golf courses with some wind guy won an Open championship by five I know that’s in a different continent but I mean the the type of golf that you need to play like if you remember Colonial the past couple of years like it’s really tiny firm greens um with wind uh and and like Colonia the last two years eight under nine under Jeff um so I’m I’m psyched for this week I I I think it’s going to be a far more serious Golf Course than what we saw last week and I think Brian Harmon’s gonna rise to the occasion on it okay I gotta own this Andy I don’t this is why you do the show with me because if I just did it I’d say what I said and there’d be no followup or intro to you saying what you said I’m stubborn I am stubborn and I’ve got too much pride if there’s a player on tour who I would be happy to never see win again it is Brian Harmon who did I wake up and want to bet what’s your what’s your beef with he just annoys me he’s just when Brian Haron wins a tournament Andy every single player on tour should get confidence like Zach Blair should be like I can win I can win okay everyone everyone who golfs the next time they pick up a club should just get confidence if that guy can do it and that’s a credit to him him but I wanted to bet him but I’m just too I’m just too stubborn and that’s like we the fan of sports like a fan of a team a guy doesn’t like a team like I just don’t bet that team I am not betting Brian Harmon but I agree with everything you said my stubbornness will probably good chance have me hating myself as this 40 45 to one is in uh contention I do agree with a lot of what you said and I pivoted off Brian Harman and was able to get a very nice Harris English number this morning so Harris English he’s down to like 30 which I thought crazy crazy yeah I was able to pull the 50 which I thought was fair this 30 is like insane I’d rather bet a bunch of these other guys uh my partner in crime Pat Mayo has been talking about Tom hogi winning this event for like a month for like a month I don’t so I’ve had to just blindly Tail as a friend on that Andy and Xander shley won so I bet Tom is detri is Xander sh can win a major Thomas Dey you made your Fleetwood joke but Thomas detre can get over the line for me 70 to one is a guy I am certainly circling around this week but there’s a lot of I think interesting options here um SE SE straa 50 to one I think is a fair potential play uh Austin ekro sunj M at 45 to1 so there’s a lot of places I feel like I can go I don’t think I’m going to have any bombs but like the 40 to 80 to one range Andy uh even getting as high as Mark hubard at 90 there’s just a lot of I feel options I’ve seen Daniel burger at 75 like I don’t know there’s an adventure to go on even though Scotty’s going to blow us out and I’m gonna go on it I’ve mentioned the few guys who I like I’ve mentioned who I’m swimming around um so you take it away from here you fill out your sort of like 50 to 100 range per me yeah um I bet Baden how at 50 um make how’s Scotty gonna lose how’s Scotty gonna lose well someone’s gonna catch an eclipse well how’s someone gonna catch an eclipse they’re gonna make every putt who can make every putt Christian Baden H hope I like how I I backtracked this this morning discussing him and yeah I mean how’s Scotty gonna lose he’s gonna have to someone’s gonna go putter block out and I guess that’s who it would be he’d be on the short list so yeah not a bad call yeah um so I bet bazal 50 as you mentioned he’s one of the best bat Putters in this field he’s um he’s also been hitting his irons unbelievably well and he he plays really well on these golf courses with smaller grein one of the best wedge players in the field uh the other bet I made was Aaron Ry 65 to1 it seems like that number’s gotten even a little bigger you can get 70 to ones on Ry uh of course I Endor that um but accuracy off the T short to Middle IR play actually played him in you know played him at at the PGA Championship in in the finishing position markets and he had like a sneaky good PGA made the cut for us in Daily fantasy I love the way he’s hitting his irons right now he’s one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA tour finished 12th at Colonial last year getting over seven strokes on approach but um but those are my three Jeff I you know Harmon 45 Bez 50 and Aaron Ry 65 so I’ve got some room and and decisions to make if you want to try and sell me on any long shots I think uh you know who’ have thought mark hubard would he’d be anywhere near last week’s leader yeah I’m circling him too I think at 90 to1 on a course that I think suits him much better his confidence has to be Skyhigh that would be a guy that um as I mentioned I’m circling around you know uh you know Keegan that doesn’t seem like it could be a bad Keegan course the way e Root’s been hitting those irons I don’t mind so those would be the names but now I’m just like listing more names for me the bets that I have made I did bet on that Tony feno 33 to1 I have bet um Harris English at 50 I’ve bet detri at 70 I’m tailing my boy Pat Mayo with a hogy selection at 50 so that’s uh four picks for me I’d like to add at least another one in that 50 to to 100 range and I mentioned a lot of guys who I am swimming around for Andy he’s been on Bez he’s been on um geez I’m already drawing a blank and Harmon yeah that’s it so far okay and I go check out his podcast as he will give a very in-depth recap as to what went on some would say too in depth yeah some might say too in depth but that’s your bag that’s what you’re that’s the brand yeah yeah that’s the brand that’s the brand if that’s what you need that’s uh go to get that at ADP lock Sports I’m Jeff fineberg hopefully smash a winner here at the colonial uh we’ll smash a winner please smash that like button for Andy I am Jeff we’ll be back next week as the as the tour returns to Canada [Music]