Steve gives out his favorite bets for the 2024 PGA Championship
this episode of the golf gambling podcast on the sports gambling podcast network is brought to you by Underdog fantasy Underdog is offering plenty of markets this week for the PGA Championship that you can find anywhere else sign up with uh golf sgn to claim your special pick plus firsttime deposit offer up to $250 in bonus cash rof fancy.com promo code golf sgn all right d Jens welcome back uh if you hear me reading the ad reads uh that means Boston kapper is uh decided to not show up for a major week he wanted to go see the Bruins game uh you know his beloved team uh cheer them on when they get horribly eliminated tonight and they’ll have a sad drive up uh I 95 back to uh uh Jacksonville there but uh just me maning the uh the controls but and I have a very special guest me tonight uh Byron lindu the model Maniac Byron how we doing tonight buddy you ready to break down the PJ championship and embrace Kentucky culture oh Steve you know I’m looking forward to having a good time in Kentucky and and trying to throw out the Boston accent there and I was thinking about it for like the longest time before you let me speak and do I go with it do I not I tried it didn’t work out you know you never know what it sounds like until it comes out your mouth but Boston we miss you have fun um watching your team lose and um just happy to be here with you Steve just kind of me and you this time you know a little less chaos probably you a bit more like succinct conversations going on but we do miss the the the spiciness that comes from the Boston cap side of things I don’t know I feel like you and I whenever we get on the mics it it turns pretty silly I feel like you know it’s definitely more contentious with me me and Boston kapper it’s uh definitely a little more like you know bickering merry couple at this point you and I though feel like you know we’re just you know two nerds up at the bar there watching golf making really silly jokes about movies and comparing them to Golfers everything it’s it’s great so but uh yeah I’m very much looking forward to uh breaking down the PJ Championship with you tonight thank you for joining me um so why don’t we just start talking you know let’s just get right into it here so uh Valhalla we’ve seen it in 2014 we saw it at the 2000 PGA as well and you know there’s been a couple changes to the golf course that we talked about on Sunday they did lengthen in a couple holes there see I I heard also that uh I think a couple holes got narrowed a little bit with the fairies but overall though um you know it doesn’t really seem all that different uh from what we saw in 2014 especially with some of the turf conditions too yes they changed the zo but there gonna be a lot of rain uh there so well you know what’s your general thoughts this week about Valla Byron um how do you think it’s GNA play um do you like the course do you not like the course what what do you think about Valhalla the uh the scene of the 2024 PJ championship this week yeah so I guess the fact that I’ve I’ve been tempted or enticed by Scotty Sheffer bogy free round anytime during the tournament plus 200 course record to be broken 12 plus 1200 um I think the score was set at plus 272 272 and a half is the magic number what I think is minus 110 either side right now so they kind of projecting minus 12 I think from what I’m feeling you know like we don’t know that’s the fun part about this week is we we’ve we’ve seen this course so long ago we can anticipate we can project we can extrapolate how as much we want but at the end of the day we got to just have those Spidey tenses and Spidey senses kind of tingling for us and I think it sneaks into the teams you know we’ve seen a few of these guys with Scotty with Bryson with Rory with Brooks I think with one of those four guys in the field you you would not be shocked if one of them lands up inside minus5 or so at the end of the week you know if we expecting this course to play soft as as you know with the rain being there but I’m just looking for looking for long Ison players and guys that have played well in mes that’s I’m not overthinking it this week Steve yeah I mean it seems like the PGA they have had a little bit of a consistent setup over the last few few years and it also is kind of reflected in the winning score as well it seems like they want a wing score around like eight under nine under 10 under but you know looking at this golf course though I think you know he kind of hit the nail on the head there that um I it only takes one guy to get into the teens and B based on you know our breakdown of the golf course on Sunday and looking at it you know I mean I don’t see a ton of adversity I don’t see a ton of I guess ways like last year at oakill where they materially changed the golf course to make it more difficult holes were fundamentally Chang or in different clubs different distances here though you know even on some of the holes where they lengthen it didn’t change really the hole all that much it really just accounted for the advancements and distance um you know and I went through where I expect the iron shots to be really only on hole number one is going to be materially different than what it was 2014 that that Year’s wedge there it’s gonna be a longer iron but it’s really goingon to play pretty much about the same um you know the holes that they hadit driver on back in 2014 probably g hit driver got again this year the holes that were long irons other than hole number one it’s GNA be the same this year and that year got the 16 under I think the average score was like plus5 overpar that year so you know for PJ uh Championship standards is pretty easy uh you know the PJ could definitely manipulate some pin positions to try and keep it maybe not out of control but you know we talk about that winning score there I haven’t seen it yet I want to see it I might actually pull an all nighter uh to maybe make sure I get down on it I I love uh I think it’s I saw I saw 273 and a half earlier from Jeff Sher with the Westgate I’m guessing probably other books maybe adjusted down a little bit I would still go over over 272 and a half though no I’m sorry under I meant under yeah so into the teens negative scoring yes AB absolutely so you know so based on you know so you mentioned bombers mentioned long iron players you mentioned possibly maybe a little easier conditions um for uh you know the PJ Championship so I guess you know what sort of customizations obviously you have a great model there it’s very elaborate if you go look at the you know everybody go look at his streams his videos uh it’s great you know he breaks it all down it’s it’s uh you know and everything’s all neatly colorcoded as well it’s it’s it’s it’s a great presentation there so what customizations you know did you do the mile this week as far as waiting uh you know and is it any different than other PJ championships or is it kind of more you know similar along the same vein of trying to Target one specific you know type of player uh so in order to account for the live guys and the PGA Tour guys I made a major model based on Strokes gained major so it’s literally like the old school model Steve you know like 2020 2018 2017 stuff like strok gain approach off the te around the greens putting like I need to know who’s played well in Majors I don’t care what major it is I just care how well you’ve hit your irons I just care about how well you’ve puttered how well you’ve chipped in majors and the majority of these guys playing and the majority of the guys that we really care about at the top of the field have a decent sample size of the only guy really causing issues right now is LV he’s the you know so I had to like dull his stuff down a touch but outside of that I’m just using historical major track records you know and data from those to kind of compile the the the metrics I have I’ve also taken a a new approach this year where I took finishing positions where a a a win gets multiplied by 10 a second gets multiplied by 7 and a half a third by five four and a half four three and a half three like kind of goes down and graduates that way to kind of just get a feel for these guys like there’s some good really Strokes gained metrics out there but some of these dudes like Tony feno doesn’t have a second place finish in a major you know like I need that to be an important part of my decision- making and I need to find a way to kind of identify Rooks cupka eight top twos in his last little while of Majors right like that’s significant to me I need to know that that’s in my metrics now so I’ve been using that kind of a weird handicapping system to kind of derive these guys and Brooks is right up there Scotty’s right up there W zel tus right up there so um it’s it’s not surprising and it that’s why I’m not overthinking it this week okay I mean so so to expand a little bit on the live guys I mean obviously the stats that they have is very limited have you tried dabbling it all to try and digest it into your model or just in general just kind of refer to it or are you just going to ignore it and just kind of look at okay major record and not even bother seeing what happens in live Adelaide or Singapore anything like that well I bet Bryson I mean and Brooks sorry because I know that Brooks just won a major I was I bet Brooks’s for the Masters as well but knowing that he’s just won a major playing well that’s good to know you know cam Smith playing nicely out there so there’s some guys that are are showing some form I’m not going to like take it into twoo much account like the fact that John Ram hasn’t won a tournament but also hasn’t finished outside the top 10 it’s it’s just like such an it’s like doesn’t even matter you know like that is such in the middle of nothingness to me you know like had he’ won one that would have been significant had he and the fact that he’s not I think is a very big problem in my opinion you know like by now you should have won that a tournament on live as John Rong I don’t know about that I mean he went over as the alpha you know like he went over as the guy and we haven’t seen it and when he needed to he couldn’t yeah I mean he has made some big mistakes in big moments I I guess my Approach with live this year has been I he I’ve tried to watch a little more so I feel like you’re right with the stats like I I can’t just lazily you know kind of like what I do with the pj2 and like okay what did Luke Liss do I only saw three shots of his the entire uh you know four days I kind of like him for this course what he do with the stats here you know you do have to kind of watch him a little bit and you know I did notice that some seems to be I guess a little off with him as far as Strokes gained I don’t know mental fortitude possibly but you know I I feel the only way really to kind of gauge these guys if I’m not going to get a lot of good stats is probably just watch them and you know even with the stats that are available you know I mean Strokes gained you know the categorical stuff hasn’t been around forever and you know what did our dads do to bet golf They probably just used green of Regulation and scrambling everything like that just you know watch some of these guys and I’ve tried experimenting with boiling down some of these stats and they kind of mimic Strokes gain and at least from what I’ve seen from Rah like everything looks pretty solid across the board um you know I’m not not all that concerned that he hasn’t won I guess but I know you make a good point though but um but the fact that it’s not not being worse in the top 10 either is like like what are we doing here you know like we just Milling around you know it’s weird all right I guess well I mean we’re gonna talk about John Ram a little bit but why we take first ad break and then uh we’ll start talking about the uh the top of the board here so um you know why don’t we talk about the NY 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Bellmont at the big a third race Post Time on the day of each contest so get in and get your bonuses at nyab bets.com so that’s SGP and20 and of course we are brought to by Underdog fantasy under fantasy is the best way uh to get your action in and you know gamble along with your favorite game you’re watching the NBA playoffs are here and our sponsor under our fantasy wants to make it a lot more interesting uh it’s the easiest place to play fantasy sports by playing their pick and game and it’s a simple of selecting the higher or lower on player stats like points rebounds assists and so much more make entries of all basketball or M mix a match across your favorite sports you win up to a 100 times your money and it’s a lot of fun doing it Underdog is available in 30 plus States including California Texas and even Canada so you know this week obviously we’re doing a big promotion for uh the PJ Championship with the under fantasy it’s great to use it you can use you know pick higher lower 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coming off the baby you got baby swag uh everything so both these guys have some off thec course narratives maybe driving uh a reason why people want bet him you know Scotty sher’s four to one Rory is about seven to one uh G de your head with Scotty a Rory you know who are you taking this week Scotty okay I’m looking at Rory’s track record and there’s a lot of thirds a lot of those are back doors you know a few of them lifeless Sunday Type performance like literally what we saw from Xander we’ve seen from Rory in these Maes you know like US Open the the British you know both those times when he was in the mix he just was lifeless you know whereas Scotty he’s just he he steals the life from the party right like I’m trying to bet Scotty Sheffer to win by four somehow this week you know I think that’s if you’re looking to bet him just wa bet him to win by full because that’s just what he does nowadays okay I mean I was just gonna ask you like you know what’s the best way to probably bet Scotty because you know if you want to bet positional it’s either What minus 105 or so for a top five or paying over minus 200 for top 10 or so h four to one for the outright but yeah I I I guess if you want to bet Scot probably go bigger go home would be you know bet four or more uh to win there I I I guess with Scotty though are you concerned at all about the layoff and a little bit of rust and I’m thinking maybe you know he’s riding a hot putter at least for his standards before taking a little break there are you a little concerned that maybe that cools off a little bit and you know maybe that’s what’s ends up costing him uh winning this thing yes I’m I’m nervous about it because I’ve been riding the Scotty Sheffer top 10 Wagon at minus 150 all this year you know like it’s I’ve been betting it it’s been working over the last 12 months if you’ve been winning trying to bet to win a $100 on Scotty sheff in the top 10 or top 20 Market or the top five Market you would have won a $1,000 in all three of those markets betting Scotty Sheffer in the last 20 tournaments you know like that’s just how good he’s been he’s been automatic any bet you place on him he’s cashing right now for you so after a baby though you know you’re only going to return your one unit because you’re betting atus 130 you know so I’m just going to leave my one unit on the table this week I don’t want to risk my 1.3 units and just and just watch him as a dad you know like I don’t know what’s going to happen it’s a big life it’s probably the biggest life-changing event of his life right as a as a dad regardless of winning two green jackets and all that stuff just waiting and seeing you know there’s no need to go out there and I’ve got other guys in betting that I can use my money elsewhere yeah I mean for it seems like the upth tournament in a row I don’t have Sheffer anywhere on my Bening card just because I I think the layoff a little bit is concerning to me as a as a dad of two young kids I know exactly what that first week is like and you know listen it’s Scotty sheffler he probably has just passed uh the kid off to his wife and he says he’s well rested and um that means he probably isn’t being a good dad at this point he’s probably not doing a lot of midnights or he’s lying and he’s not doing any changes or anything like that but I I think for me it was it was the layoff he hasn’t played since Harbor toown and you know I mean obviously I think the ball striking probably will still be there I I don’t really have any concerns about that but you know what if that putter just is a little cold now you know maybe has a little bit what happened last summer where it’s just you know bunch of Seventh Place sixth place fourth place finishes which can be good for a top 10 you know as long as it’s not dead heated or so so um you I I I think it’s fortunate for everybody else with the outright Market because I think the long layoff and the baby and that getting delayed a little bit him not playing last week um maybe that’ll make us Sunday a little more fun uh this time around maybe we’ll have uh you know not have our souls crushed uh you know with it but it will be very scary though because he probably will be chasing everybody at this point yes yes so all right well let’s talk about other guys under 30 to one so you may mention about Brooks you love Brooks this week so obvious so I’m just going to say it’s safe to assume you bet him out right okay all right talk a littleit about Brooks I mean most people probably watching the stream knows like how great is a PJ Championship but yeah um I I I guess what what were there any other factors that Soldier on Brooks this week other than just pedigree um the PJ Championship you know like what are we telling people we don’t already know is is the fact that it’s just repeat winners tend to win here the most and it’s mainly because of him I’ve I looked at it for the last 25 years 56% of PGA Championship winners have won a major prior to that win I mean if if Brooks doesn’t check that box what now three times four times five times you know like it’s it’s exactly what are we looking for right and this is this is his tournament like he’s made it his baby he’s he’s won these things in in in spurts twice at a time kind of thing it’s it’s all the the price is nice I mean I would not be likely betting Brooks at 7even to one where Rory is right now Rory hasn’t won a major in a decade he’s 7even to1 Brooks is still 16 he’s won five majors in the last ever you know like that’s the way to go so brooksie also for for a top five bit that I made 42% of the time he’s finishing inside the top five in majors 58% of the time it’s a top 20 it’s only a 16% difference between him being inside the top 20 and inside the top five of Majors he’s just there enough to potentially win one you know like he’s just always there more than anybody else so that’s just the reason why I went with him this week well you know I love that price that’s he should be 12 10 to1 in my opinion okay uh I mean I’m also on Brooks I had a Futures on him I bet him a couple weeks ago at uh around I it was like 26 and a half I getting a boost on it but yeah I mean I probably at 14 161 I would bet him again he did all the telltale signs of what he has been doing you know before a major where you know I mean trying to digest these live stats as much as possible you know the ball striking for him has been relatively good at least uh through most of the year you know driving it relatively pretty good the eye test at least for how he was hitting it was there he just wasn’t hitting a lot of putts obviously he did had the putter change uh this year finally started to make some putts uh at Singapore obviously that’s why he won you know and I like seeing from Brooks him you know peing before the a major obviously and seeing that putter get hot that’s that was that would be enough for me anyways even if I hadn’t bet him I would have bet him anyways and you’re right I mean with a major pedigree a PJ Championship setup as well where thick rough long driver heavy um you know I think I I heard a take that um you know maybe this champ thought how would be a little too easy for Brooks but he won B reef and that was soft and easy as well so I don’t really have any concerns about him not being able to get to 15 16 17 under uh and winning this thing so all right so so Brooks we’re on board here uh it seems like also on board with Bryson as well you know obviously the bomber narrative so he hasn’t he didn’t play very well in Adela and Singapore though and I I guess the C you know I mean I already kind of asked this you already kind of throwing uh you know those results out but you know so what do you about like about Bryson this week other than um you know obviously the distance but so talk about a little bit what you like about Bryson like I said three of the four of my guys on my card I’ve they’ve won or finished second in a in a major and Bryson’s won a major he’s won a major that we are projecting to potentially be a driving test that’s similar to Wing foot you know maybe the scoring positions aren’t the same but maybe the driving nature of the course is and it doesn’t hurt to be probably the longest driver of the golf ball in the field you know of the elite guys so even with Rory in the mix so he’s amazing out this rough he’s so powerful he’s so strong and I feel like this kind of like a boneheaded venue that’s not very nuanced the bigger your paintbrush you can paint with the better it is for Bryson kind of thing you know like you don’t need a la type of Paintbrush here you know like a small fine bristled thing is not going to get the job done you got to get that paint roller out and just Mash drives off the tea and get your ball out the rough onto the Fairway and that’s what Bryson does and he’s won a major he’s playing good golf played nicely at OKO last year let’s see what we can do I don’t know yep and you know he’s had a pretty good track record at pga’s as well uh you know I think he had a share of the lead at Harding Park which I think is a very uh at least it might not have the length as Valhalla but narrow thick rough not a whole lot of nuance to it I think taring Park probably is a good comp for this place you know came second there um he was in the mix of Kiwa and then just did kind of what Bryson does during that year on Sunday just completely implode on Sunday similar what he did at Tory Pines uh but then he was really good at oill last uh last year so you know it seems like you know we talk about Brooks with you know driver heavy you know thick rough tough mentality seems like also fits that mold one thing I I looked at though because they did make the zoa change with the fairways and there’s a couple more runoff areas with some tight lies and zoa could be kind of weird to some guys some guys really like it some guys really don’t um so I actually went and looked at some zoa results for some of these guys and they’re not all that good for Bryson but that’s really in the weeds so and it’s kind of a it’s a small sample size too there’s not many zoa courses uh the PGA T although it’s also Bryson it is also Bryson I mean it I it wasn’t encouraging in the see in Singapore that was zoa he didn’t play all that great but I I as far as the everything else about Bryson’s game can fit to balala so he didn’t make my betting card but I I think it’s a fine pick so about Singapore because you watched right it’s it wasn’t a 7600 yard Golf Course though with thick rough was it it was no it was yard or that’s the thing it’s less it was a less than driver course it looked like um remember TBC qual lour that Golf Course back at the CIMB like way back in the day yeah no okay I was busy playing golf not watching golf then okay maybe I was only the only sicko to watch Mark Lehman and uh Ryan Moore go back to back uh at that thing but yeah it looked a lot like that a lot of ball necking Affair ways there so it was a little claustrophobic for Bryson and Hinds side probably not a great venue for him but he Al but he did good to Hong Kong though and that was what 6400 yards so maybe it’s too short you know like you can just get to the par fours all the exactly I mean the body work though with Bryson this year I’m not all that concerned yeah he had a really bad stretch in Australia and Singapore whatever you know as far as the prototypical type of player you’re probably looking for this week Bryson uh is definitely a good fit um all right you know why don’t I you know before we move on to the um you know 30 to like 60 to one or so why just uh you know in or out on these guys just rapid fire uh Xander in or out to win out top 10 in okay uh Walky Neiman in or out out out out out out okay uh the injured ludvig in or out out okay uh Max hom in or out tempted for DFS okay what’s his ownership like I Haven I mean I haven’t looked at that is he chalk this week or I haven’t taken a look I think it’s fine I think he’s fine you know which is the exciting part okay that’s that’s another guy who I like for this golf course but not great zoa results especially with the iron play and around the green which is really where you want to look at that so all right and then Colin morala Jack Nicholas specialist but not a bomber in out in top 10 what what’s up with this iron game though that has been stinky it’s been bad but the fact that he gained the most he’s done in a while at Augusta is like this is the thing about the Maes Steve is these guys not up and Collins’s been historically very good at chipping and putting in Maes and now he’s showing up chipping and putting kind of well I think he’s gained almost just shy of a stroke per round in the last three tournaments he’s played that part is rolling man you know like it’s enough to kind of supersede how bad his long iron play has been it’s been the long irons 200 plus it’s like in this 2024 year it’s in the 25th percentile on D go yeah he’s long irons karal was a 99th percentile long iron player back in the day when he was winning at Harding Park but now Collins’s all of a sudden putting well him and Russell Russell Hy went to the same school somewhere apparently and they just seem now they can Chip and Putt and they just forgotten how to hit irons you know so that’s my opinion of of Colin I’ve got him top 10 the guy’s top 10 in in majes at a 47% clip yeah just does it he just gets it done yeah I’m tempted to buy pass the long iron stuff and just go with it too the concern though it’s so heavy on shots over 200 this week I think I I I know there’s five between 200 and 225 and then you got the par fives as well but I might just take a leap of faith and you know he’s been driving the ball good too you know despite the fact he doesn’t have a lot of length and now Jack Nicholas course lot of Fades off the te especially have those last four holes too it’s very repetitive it doesn’t make sense Steve you just got to just embrace the major magic that happens because that’s what these guys do can we chat about that for like 30 seconds like what is your take on guys playing in Maes better than when they do like Colin’s top 10 rate in Majors is double what it is on the PGA tour well it’s it’s it’s a mentality thing I I I’ve heard Brooks talk about this a lot that you know he I think the famous one everybody knows about is how he just eliminates a lot of the field because they know they just can’t hack it and it’s more about hitting smart shots you know conservative picking your spots be aggressive whereas you know these dart boards that they play in the PGA Tour you know where there’s not a lot of thought behind it it kind of opens up the field to a lot more types of guys they cuddle them for God’s sakes with lift clean in place and all the Tio [ __ ] that goes on there it’s just a different mentality and you know it’s and I and there definitely is more pressure with a major uh you know with these stuff and I think it’s felt with some of the players as well I think a lot of these PG tour events just after everything that’s gone on is just not as significant what they used to be and the pressure is just off at this point it’s only about the cash this is about the Legacy so yeah I I I I totally agree with just guys just show up to these venues doesn’t matter really what course it is the fact that they just slap major championship or PGA Championship or Open Championship just right on there it just it it starts separating the Wii from the shaft more so it does it’s weird it’s beautiful yes I I like the direction uh that you’re going with and then uh you know we’ll take another break and then uh we’ll we’ll start off with a guy uh who definitely does not rise the occasion uh in Majors so all right so let’s talk about game time so you know have you ever had a frustrating ticket experience you know let’s say maybe you want to go to Boston right now but you 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sections uh down the line so take uh guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time download the game time app create an account use code CFB X for 20 bucks off your first purchase terms of again create an account redeem with code CFB X for $20 off download the game time app today last minute tickets lowest priced guaranteed okay so you just talked about major championship mentality and let’s go with the guy who has not demonstrated that you probably not weren’t expecting me to even go in this direction right now but I had a take about Patrick Klay that at Valhalla Golf Course is not a lot of nuance a jack Nicholas design that he’s had I think three or four wins on uh our colleague Matt Ganon is on the ground at Valhalla and said it kind of reminds them aesthetically of caves Valley which uh is a gol course that Canley did very well at and I have a I have a take that if kley doesn’t find himself in the mix this week or just kind of semi relevant it is absolutely never going to happen with him so he he’s coming off a pretty bad performance at Quil Hollow but you know historically speaking this has been a very friendly type of golf course for Klay to kind of turn things around do you think there’s any possibility that can happen on a golf course that literally is teed up for him or is he just gonna live up to his reputation and just probably finish t24 and probably shoot 74 on the opening round back to our top 30 and just never be relevant I mean I don’t have to add much more than that Steve you I’m not gonna I’m not gonna add more than that that’s exactly what’s gonna happen he’s he’s so predictable he is so predictable every single time and he’s got the added stuff now where he’s playing succession he’s playing you know board of directors now that I apparently there was there there was an unsubstantiated rumor because I kind of liked Klay last week I I got bought in a little bit so okay you know TD green game is starting to come around a little bit there was an unsubstantiated room in our Discord that apparently he was seen a couple days before the tournament out in California at a board meeting at a suits meeting so his mind is definitely not on the golf course right now it is about uh keeping the game fractured and making sure Rah and Bryson never get to go play uh the AMX again so so even though would it surprise me at this type of venue if Klay finally does well no it wouldn’t because you know obviously you got the architect uh links with him B grass greens these greens also don’t seem really significantly undulated and that seems to be greens he’s had a lot of problems with he could probably make a bunch of putts here um you know when he’s driving it fairly well which he hasn’t been doing this year but when he’s driving it well you know he’s got a lot of length but yeah I I’m done with the guy I I I can’t do it and if if if this is the one that can’t lay wins maybe I should just retire maybe I just hang it up at this point you know it’s the only thing going for him Steve is the fact that there’s zero expectations because he’s playing like ass it’s a major he’s I’m looking at my screen the other person in the last six months that’s gained as many strokes as Jordan and it’s the least of the whole bunch of guys priced from $8,400 and up it’s Patrick kley and and Jordan have gained Point s Strokes total like it’s good but like the rest of the guys you’re seeing like two and a half you know two whatever you know like one and a half it’s it’s not there you know he just doesn’t got it don’t got it right now no and the common link with both of them by the way and there both on the player Advisory Board trying to negotiate all this stuff I mean at least speed can say he’s got a wrist injury yeah you that’s a problem but and two kids yes and two kids can’t Le I don’t think has it uh two I think he’s just sipping uh uh Bordeaux and Merlo’s on the weekend and uh you know pretending that uh he’s uh giving a PowerPoint presentation on derivatives or something so all right uh let’s talk about some other guys between like 30 and 60 to1 you know we got a bunch of you know guys who got a lot of length Windam Clark uh cam young JT’s actually got a lot of length coming off a decent finish obviously the hometown boy there do you like any of those guys uh this week I I guess of those three Windam cam young and J who’s your favorite to win the tournament wendam Clark to finish inside the top 10 cam young and to suck it up Justin Thomas okay so you’re not buying JT’s I mean he played okay I guess said qu you’re not buying a little bit of resurgence for JT the hometown narrative for him right I think it’s too much I think it’s it’s overwhelming it’s we haven’t seen it from him in a while the guys he’s the most expensive golf to have bet in major since 2021 M no one has left lost you more money in majes than Justin Thomas so until that starts changing I’m leaving him alone I don’t want to touch the guy I don’t he’s changing caddies he’s like sometimes that’s good sometimes it’s bad when you had Bones maai on your bag and you’re getting another guy now we wouldn’t even know that’s not good in my opinion that’s another divorce situation you know so I don’t necessarily understand where these guys are going going back to Louisville he’s got the keys to the city apparently like two or three weeks ago there’s other [ __ ] going on this guy’s life that I don’t think he really cares about it is a PJ Championship he’s one to we’ll know until Saturday morning if we want to bet the guy or not you know he’ll probably be just having made the cut barely and then then you throw a few sickles on him and watch him just fly off that leaderboard and win it from a million miles behind that’s what Jus Thomas does so you safe until Saturday poor Meo poor Meo don’t just don’t make that swing don’t make that swing on 18 is that the worst is that the worst swing under pressure like of our of the L decade I mean it looked like he got hit with a cattle prod like like like the we’re talk listen I’m a I’m a 12 or 13 handicap but it it was basically hammered in my brain do not come severely over the top on the driver’s swing especially when you have water right there and it looked like he swung like 90 degrees left there it just that was not good I mean it’s you could see him crumbling throughout the day but the fact I he had a still a one shot lead heading 18 just don’t make that swing and be one of to miss the playoff and like that’s the worst part is he never even got a second chance like three other people got the chance that he gave them no I you want to talk about I mean he you know putting his tail between his legs going to live um you know he he does not show very well in my uh uh you know half-baked model over on live there’s a lot of problems with Neo right now uh but hey he’s fat and happy probably you know sitting on his I I would probably say they gave him 30 million 40 million maybe yeah whatever it is more than Peter MTI whoever the hell else is on this you know Adam Scott even you know y all right so all right so all right so a couple other guys down here um who else you how’s you know so we got tagala Ben on uh both those guys hit it pretty far do you any interest in either those two for the placement Market or outright um talk about the couple of those guys siah it’s the only person I’m breaking my rule for and the only reason it was because I got a 75 there’s 75s 66ers even I’ll take that you know he’s got a T9 at his debut at Augusta so that gets you into the top 10 Market doesn’t help a lot you know I need a second or a first from you before I’m betting you in a major he doesn’t have that but at that price it wasn’t that big of a hit to my bankroll to kind of go to him he’s got all the tools that it takes to win a PJ Championship he’s shown well at Tor he’s shown well at Riv he’s shown well at call it the I know the centry is not the greatest comp in the world world but it’s a long golf course he he does well at these places and he does well pretty much everywhere he’s finished second so many freaking times this year maybe the PGA Championship is where he gets through I I don’t know but he also Steve had the best approach week approach day I posted this on Twitter he had his best approach round of his career on Friday he gained four strokes on approach I’m aware and then never done that before he’s done it and all the other places where he’s gained over three Tori Riv I think Bay Hill like it’s all these long ass golf courses which is exciting for this venue we’ll just forget that he shot 82 on Saturday and and just glum on to the fact that he had his best approach day at a very long golf course the week before PGA Championship that 7600 yards 82 it’s out of my mind he he shot he shot one over the following day it’s he’s back you know something’s not catastrophically wrong he just had a brain fought that happens after your best iron approach day of of your career so I’m in on him top five as well more likely a top five than a win but at that price I can I can handle it you know okay I mean let’s just go with the theory my dad had who was uh not happy that I put siah on his betting card uh that week that uh maybe he was hung over on Saturday but uh hey I I I bet uh Rory for my dad so all ended up well for him so right congratulations tala just hung over all right that’s just that explains the ad too so all right all right so another you mentioned down here obvious all right so I’m just gonna guess you are you’re you’re really big on the major Strokes gain and you got will zotor who has seen his odds completely plummet uh down here not coming off a good finish of Quail Hollow you got some back injury concerns from pulling out uh you know his hometown event a couple weeks ago but you still bet him so why you still got faith in him you think you know are you willing to shake off what happened last week in the back into your concerns is it still kind of weighing a little bit on your head or is the number just too good for a guy who’s been so good at Majors that you just decide you know what throw caution to win I’m just gonna bet him he 90 to1 it’s it’s like the chum change I have left on my card I was looking to bet someone at 100 to one can you give me will zalatoris with 3 second Place finishes in Maes like what are we doing here you know but in all honesty I haven’t bet the outright yet at 90 but I’ve bet the top five at 12 okay I feel like that’s same principle you know like a 12 to1 for a top five for a golfer will zat Taurus who’s got three second place finishes in 11 Majors you know like I don’t know if there’s a there has to be something looming someone knows something the numbers too fishy for it to drop into that Stratosphere of of Abyss you know like ’90s nuts like there’s some bad golfers around him there yeah you know like that scares me but I took a gamble at the at the top five you know just took a Sprinkle I’ll be playing him in DFS I’m assuming he’ll be less own than everyone else too if he’s not injured if he just gets a A C tranquilizer to the back for the week and he plays well will we be shocked no um the back injury major concern though major concern I like I like your approach of zot Horus because I it’s it’s definitely boom bust at this point with him I like you know I mean it’s you could bet the outright 9 to1 obviously it’s like okay it’s basically a scratch off at that point for guy as H but the top five 12 to one those are good odds you know if you want start think about top 10 top 20 though like if he doesn’t have it like he just he doesn’t have at this point yeah so why not just bet the upside you know I agree with you to with DFS as well if he’s going to be low owned I mean just go with him and just kind of hope he shows up there so maybe got a nice cortisone injection or something and uh or you know maybe use Kobe’s doctor and everything’s all right with the world with him now so because you can’t do that many of them right you can only do a few a year so maybe each major he gets one or something I don’t know there you go maybe he got it on on Sunday I don’t know like before but now with the majors every single month though is that too frequent though so maybe maybe still uh the the one from the Masters is wearing off a little bit maybe it wore off on Sunday and now he’s like okay God I need another one like Doc it’s close you know I just need to just get me through this thing yeah all right anybody else in around you know like uh in this range down here you like uh under 100 to one or do you want to move to you know kind of longer shots do we want to chat about sip staka a little bit I love we can definitely tra step I love Seth this week I haven’t bet him to win but I’ve laded him top 20 top 10 top five okay I think it’s it’s somewhere between plus 275 and 12 to1 or something like that for those bets SE ster if you take a quick peek at his recent track record in Majors we’ve got three top 20s in his last little while yeah it’s been very impressive from sepy he’s a second place at the Open Championship so he’s definitely checked that box to kind of almost WN a major now after getting that second I know Tom Kim got that second as well well I mean he was like Tech it’s a second place okay in on Wikipedia that’s that counts okay cont why that was over after Saturday yes it was over but you know what he knows he’s got a second on his resume and that’s followed up by a 16th at Augusta prior to that a seventh at the PGA last year right we’ve got all of this great form in Majors from SE and then you take a peek at his recent form I think four of his last five starts have been top 20s and according to Keith Stewart PGA told us St SE Ona is yes it’s like just the guy lays down in this velvet bed at night you know when he’s playing on zo zoa Fairways and things he loves them didn’t he lose to Wal Taurus at uh South FedEx St Jude is that zoa Fairways yes that is one of the uh golf courses with zoa also kassum gaki for the Olympics where he’s first round leader that is also zoa he is one of the best zoa players that I have in this field both with approach play and more specifically around the green game one of the things I I I read too with the specifically around the green is guys who like flopping the ball aren’t going to have much success doing that on zoa comes off a little weird you know because the ball kind of sits up a little bit you’re G to get under a little bit you gota do more bump and runs with zoa so seeing him be so good around the green on zoa uh you know even though he isn’t really all that great um you know SC in general that is a good thing so um yeah I love Seth this week driving it great even though he doesn’t have the distance the fact that I I really only cared about if you’re just a good driver because these Fairways you know it’s not gonna be impossible to hit Fairways like it was in oakill or Wingfoot I I feel like even though distance is a big Advantage it’s manageable you can do it and the fact that you know he G he’s such a good driver overall with the goall ball he’s driving it great the iron play has been really good he’s been really good from long range as well yeah I love Seth this we not for a win although I mean if you’re looking for a Jimmy Walker type you know I mean he’s one of the things I like seeing just like he mentioned is he kind of sniffing around towards the top of leaderboards and Majors that’s not bad but positional Market definitely I’m looking at se uh this week uh he will absolutely be on my Ben card in some uh capacity it just feels like his lack of distance is what keeps you from betting the outright if sep stck at another 10 15 yards of distance we’re betting his ass outright like no doubt you know like I mean he’s kind of a burly boy though you would think that he uh would have a little bit of six foot full I think he actually used to have some uh some pop too so I don’t know you know maybe he’s lost a little bit so um all right how about a couple other guys down here who you like you know 100 to one or more uh that maybe you’re maybe peing your interest in the placement Market uh more so I’ll just rattle off right away Patrick Rogers okay take a take a quick peek at Patrick rogers’ situation it’s kind of fascinating he’s had I think finishes in his last he’s never played an open or a masters it’s only been PJ championships and US opens his last four have been 29th 31st or 32nd those are his finishes I think the the major pride of that which made five or six was a 41st so I bet Patrick Rogers top 40 at plus 187 or 190 okay like that think about how the course fit for these US Open PJ championships you know the the length of the tea that he has but his inability to ever find himself inside the top 20 he’s found himself a magic spot you know between 32nd and 29th is where Patrick Rogers has been in US opens and PGA championships the last two three years like so I’ll just bet him top 40 again and call it a day you know he’s his game translates really well to this kind of a venue so top 40 is nice Ser Mone no I agree I mean obviously he’s got the length off the te he’s a good driver pretty good around the green as well scrambles pretty well on zoa as well and you’re right I mean it fits the PGA US Open template there um you know I think this is as basic of PJ Championship sub as you can really get uh for this so yeah getting almost two to one for a top 40 love that price who else you like down here in the placement Market Steven Jagger for a top 40 if you think about what he does you know distance off the tea exceptionally good out rough really tidy around the greens he putter lets him down where does that fall you to in the leaderboard when you’ve got those other three teer green aspects but your putter sucks somewhere between the top 40 and the top 20 hopefully Steven jger can take care of that for us he’s got a top 40 I think in a major pride of this already so he’s batting about one in every three for a top 40 I think this venue more so than Augusta really suits him nicely because of the thick rough Augusta’s lack of thick rough which is what Steven Jer does really well by the way he’s he’s one he’s the 20th best Strokes gain player out of the rough from 150 and out you know in this field so he’s very very good from that range and that’s the last year so he does good stuff there and then minwu Lee for a top 30 he’s done that six of the last nine times in majes so when you think about distance off the tea again when you think about being able to get up and down where his approach shots are going to land him because he’s ass on approach for as good he’s the cam Smith prototype that just tons more distance it’s before cam got good with irons right like we had this really exceptional short game about min’s got that distance which really helps him in these in Oak I mean he top 20 at oal I think and he just plays well in these majes because of that that distance off the tee yeah I think for minwoo where he’s got to close the gap is it’s got to be a high Miss Fairway percentage this week because at that point like The Strokes G approach numbers are just thrown out the window cuz most most of this stuff is accumulated with you know events that have 70 75% driving accuracy rates everybody’s hitting from the faway they’re hitting from like an inch and half two inch you know Rass rough like that’s nothing at this point so yeah like that gets thrown all out the window if you’re trying to hack out from you know 4E uh uh you know Bluegrass at this point so yeah I I think minwu definitely definitely needs um you know a very high Miss Fairway percentage but he’s got the distance you know he’s a good putter obviously you know pretty good major pre you know uh resume to him as well um you know I like him you know another price right around him too doesn’t I don’t think he’s got the major pedigree Ben on seems to be pretty popular though he fits everything really you’re looking for like a temp plate you know as far as length the iron play has been really good with him I don’t think he does have the major pedigree though were you willing to kind of bypass that to try and fit him for a positional or has he been seamed up too much and he just didn’t fit you know your little narrative there this week to get him on your card I’m just limiting risk with the unknowns you know and just kind of taking on the guys that I’m certain about apart from will Z you know but we’ve we’ve mentioned that already so for him I need you see a bit more it might be too late once we do but I’m okay with that you know I don’t after you brick that four foot at Sony I’ve been betting my my life savings on the guy to win and he’s just finishing he’s finishing top five repeatedly he’s doing well but I don’t know if he’s going to win a tournament man you know like placements at I mean this golf course gez talk about how well it fits him you know I mean he’s showing he can play well anyway yeah I mean I I I think uh the top 40 Market he’s priced a little too high but top 30 top 20 you might be able to consider that he’s he’s playing great and obviously the length with him he’s driving it so good like that’s gonna put finish Augusta yeah could finish Augusta that’s going to give him a nice you know little leg up there um and then let’s talk about two uh two live guys who drive the ball pretty well um Dean burm you know from your uh your Homeland uh you know obviously you said you have a little bit of connections to Christian bazano do you have any connections to uh mean dean burer at all what do you know about him now do know was I think he was before my time a little bit um just but I’ve bet him 90 to1 to be the first round leader with five way places there you go so I like it you know because I think I think that’s how he gets it done wasn’t he I think he gained three Strokes at Southern Hills in round one and then missed the cut so now that he’s got his chops on the Liv T his confidence he’s got his foothold in the golf world I think I can get behind Dean he’s he’s always been slated as one of those guys that can be the next big South African golfers with the length he has the ability just hit those like Stingers off the tea gets hot with the putter every now and then I was really excited for him for to be on the PGA tour and then he went to live you know like and then I and I feel like he’s thrived on there you know the South Africans in particular have have really enjoyed the live environment um so good for them I’m happy for them you know South Africa’s been a tough tough world to live in and and grow up in so they deserve their money um but I mean top top Market there 90 to1 baby first round leader let’s see what he can do yeah The Stingers they’ve been good on the uh the anchor of that team that has been Brandon Grace he has been he’s been hitting the ball good he he can’t play anymore though for whatever reason but now de Dean has been good over there it’s impressive that his win like it the Dural setup it was definitely a little Tamer than what it could be but deral is still a Big Boy golf course and he won that that was pretty impressive if you’re gonna win on live like a lot of these golf courses are not up to par they’re not good but Dall though even though I think it’s kind of a bad design it is a championship worthy golf course as far as what it offers long beefy and he won that he’s got the length does I think he actually I was looking at the Wikipedia page I think he’s actually got an okay finish at one major maybe the open one year I think he has like a top 30 or something so I I like Dean this week I’m gonna consider consider him for the positional Market um and Adrian Mor’s been doing a little better over there too he’s a good driver good iron player as well so I I just kind of elevated guys who are you know just have some length um you know there’s a lot of longer approach shots you know I mean he’s probably he got screwed from being from the rider Cup team but Marco Simone you know a lot of long approach shots there a lot of uh success on that golf course as well so I think this type of golf course might suit Adrian [ __ ] yeah I think he can get a pretty decent top 40 he’s a good player I know he’s on L but he’s he’s he’s a solid player solid DP uh you know World Tour career and he’s been playing relatively good golf at least his total Strokes gained on the field there I mean say what you want he’s be the Richer blands of the world but you know he’s getting Fringe top 10 he’s he’s showing well um I think his skill set for this week you know if you want to go you know positional Market on him he’s a he’s a good player um for whateve which which one top 40 top 20 top 10 top 40 you know I mean listen he hasn’t done the major he hasn’t have any major uh uh you know good experience there but you know go top 40 you probably get over two to one on him for that you know start off small see what happens so low the expectations on him so all right I have one more bet for you okay go for it it’s a matchup and it’s cam young over Sam Burns minus 115 at FanDuel okay Sam Burns hasn’t had a top 10 in a major he’s had one top 20 and it was 20th where he finished in the side side that top 20 Camy young has got 45% of his majes being top 20s yeah to me at minus 115 in a major give me that guy over the other guy simple you know you know a problem for Sam and I think this is why he’s just not good at Majors is obviously the iron play is deficient but with how long he hits it he should be gaining more Strokes off the T and he just sprays it everywhere and I I feel like that’s just something that’s going to come back to bite him I think this week I like even you know you got to drive it well I don’t think you necessarily have to have distance distance helps but if you are absolutely all over the map it’s the scoring is going to be there this week this is not gonna be one of those up and down games like you’re just gonna cause yourself strokes and he just has failed to kind of shown that in Majors especially like setups where he should be good at with how long and how well he should be driving the ball he just doesn’t get it done so I like that matchup uh right there so yeah all right Byron thank you for joining us uh you are a busy man nowadays uh so why don’t you tell everybody where we can find you and where uh we can listen to you yep at the model Maniac on X you can find me with all my stuff there I’ve got a nice little pinned tweet that has all my information for every single show that I’ve done this week for all my articles for all my nuggets for all my fun little things there some other useful stuff it’s all on my pin tweet at the model Maniac all my articles are at roto.com go check out the PGA tab over there some are free some are um premium use code PGA get yourself 30% off this week because it’s the PGA and then fantasy golf degenerates is where you can find me and Kenny having a good old time and every there on Mondays on the Mayo media Network where I did the playby player um PJ championship show with with Pat which was a fun time and made my Wells Fogo week a week from hell so it was a good time putting it together but I I prepared for pretty much the PJ championship and the wells foggo last week so I’m ready to rock and roll this ex excellent well thank you for joining me obviously you high quality sub love having you on the show too uh really appreciate you coming on and breaking this down for me so uh so that’s it for us this week uh I will be on the uh the main SGP show a little later on uh trying not to uh judge too hard the uh the co-hosts or The Two Hosts who don’t watch golf all that much uh their pcks for DFS and them trying to justify uh why a chalk pick is actually canaran so uh stay tuned for that later on uh but otherwise though uh my betting c will be out tomorrow I’ll have a a oneand done video uh maybe a couple Underdog stuff as well coming out tomorrow so uh go check that out uh make sure you subscribe to us on Spotify bu an apple uh subscribe to our YouTube channel we give a lot of free stuff and uh yeah good luck this week the PJ Championship bets enjoy the tournament enjoy everybody back together at least for one week uh and we will see you next week for the Charles Schwab
