Brad Thomas and Denny Carter give their favorite bets for this weekend’s Charles Schwab Challenge on the PGA Tour — including Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Tony Finau and Aaron Rai. #GolfChannel #CharlesSchwabChallenge #CollinMorikawa #MaxHoma
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Collin Morikawa’s game well-suited for Charles Schwab Challenge | Going For The Green | Golf Channel
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welcome to going for the green I’m Brad Thomas I promise you I am Brad Thomas hair is gone but I am not a clone same guy Denny Carter listen we have the Charles swab challenge but before we get into any thoughts on this I need to ask you what did you think what was your first thought when the news popped up that Scotty sheffler was arrested ahead of the second round at the PGA Championship I thought I was going to give feedback on your new hair hair look here but uh uh okay here’s here here’s how it went I I woke up with the kids right and I’m making them breakfast and I turn on uh you know I turn on Sports Center and I see a guy who looks an awful lot like Scotty sheffler being escorted to a cop car and I say huh that looks like Scotty sheffler and I and I go about my morning I I don’t even think about it yeah and then I come back five minutes later and it’s actually him getting into a cop car it it’s actually mind-blowing it’s surreal it’s dreamlike it was very a very weird Friday yeah I when I saw the tweets I was like I’m getting trolled I was like fact cheing on Google and everything and then when I saw it like the worst came to my mind because I I’ve met Scotty I’ve had conversations with him I’m like really it’s not just an act you know he’s a wholesome dude I’m like was I wrong this whole time did I have this bad character judgment but either way how he played after that round was phenomenal yeah obviously life came at him fast on that third round especially without Ted Scott but he’s back in the field he’s plus 280 I’m gonna pass I think he’s what upwards of third 13,000 on the DraftKings DFS side right I’m gonna pass on him I’m going to Max hom as my high price guy um my shorter shot he’s 22 to1 to win this tournament and I’m typically not a maxom guy I’m not the guy who just loads loads loads loads up on Max hom but what I’ve seen from him is promising enough for me to get back on the train uh about like six or seven tournaments ago I think I highlighted something about maxom in one of my articles that his putter was starting to fail him and if he’s not going to continue to tear the cover off the ball and just gain a ton of Strokes on approach if his putting’s not there you can’t just have neither you got to have one or the other well now he’s gaining a ton of Strokes on approach and he’s putting really well if you want to go back and look at his his history here he’s a guy who’s played phenomenal T9 here and why because this is a second short second shot golf course we talk about that a lot but the distances of like 125 to 150 you really need to excel at so you want to get guys who are really good on approach and Max H is that T8 at well Wells Fargo t35 at PGA I think his price should be a little bit shorter so I’m taking a stab at him at 22 to1 I like it it you know the second shot course is Big here that’s what I focused on as well he he’s been H’s been shaky off the tea as you know but I think if he can if he can light it up on the greens this week I think that he is a good shot as for sheffler and DFS I mean you really have to take a gash into your allotted you know money to put together a lineup if you’re going with him but man I’m telling you it’s hard it’s hard to build a lineup a confident lineup without Scotty sheffler oh yeah for sure um there’s a guy that you like Mr Colin morawa as your high-priced option and I don’t know if you saw the sheet that I had uh updated before we got to the final I was going to go maxom or col morawa and I didn’t get rid of col morawa for any negatives I just did it based on price in the betting sphere so tell us why you like as your high price option this week I mean I’m looking for guys who can put it in the Fairway and you know length doesn’t really matter that much this week and that’s good for a guy like Kore cow I but by the way Brad I was I was stunned to see I I know the stats I know the metrics I’m in the spreadsheets constantly right but I was just shocked to see in the PGA Championship how far behind guys Kore cow was off the te I’m talking 30 40 yards sometimes but here’s the thing he put it in the Fairway and that’s what you have to do here uh put yourself in good position he’s first and driving accuracy he’s gained Strokes in seven of his past eight events overall uh and he’s eighth in the field in proximity to the pin which is actually a pretty uh closely correlated stat here uh for this event so good with the irons and we saw it at the PGA you know he’s putting every every shot he’s putting to 10 feet 12 feet he didn’t make any putts the entire day on Sunday I I like the overall form going into this and I don’t know if he’s going to be super high rostered because Sheffer is going to vacuum up a lot of that roster ship yeah totally agree uh there I’m going with a guy I don’t trust at all but I think I’m seeing something in his game that’s making me want to take a stab at this price I’m going with Tony fow um he’s 33 to one right Denny and we have to remember that there’s some things about Tony feno’s game that we don’t like number one putting uh he went four straight events where he lost Strokes putting uh he was off the te uh he’s lost Strokes at the Players lost Strokes at vbar off the team and then he started correct it houon an open gained five Strokes five Strokes at the Masters gained a stroke at RBC Heritage and then he kind of had a really big stinker at Wells Fargo well he played okay at PGA he did lose off the te that’s the issue right but man we cannot deny how well he’s playing on approach he is top four in Strokes gained approach over the last 36 rounds he gained a whopping 9.6 Strokes on Approach at the PGA Championship and most importantly he switched putting grips right I know that doesn’t sound like a big deal but when you look at it losing 3 6 2 one Strokes on the putting surface in his recent events and then he actually is neutral he gained Strokes on the putting surface after he changed his putting grip that’s massive this is a tiny course right we talked about distance is not all that important I think that helps a guy like Tony fenel right you hit it far enough you’re out of the trouble or if you Club down that also helps with his accuracy if he continues to stripe the ball the way he’s going to he will be in contention not to mention this guy plays course so so well absolutely I look and finally Tony got my handwritten letters I’ve been sending it to him for 18 months saying Tony you got to change your grip buddy all right you stink on the greens you’re you’re you’re struggling mightily you have the toe of the putter pointed straight up in the air and I I know look I’m just a Duffer I know that this is not right okay so he Chang his grip you’re right I was hoping he’ go to the broomstick honestly I hope he just completely redo his whole putting game but that that is it is an important thing and I I think that we should Factor it in uh I will say that uh this season Tony fow has been great from the 75 to 100 yard range which again is very important on this course so he has a lot of things going for him yeah absolutely you have a guy who uh kind of fits my profile as well when I was building out my initial model I had Aron Ry uh sitting about eighth in my model which is really high for someone whose salary is 7,800 um I I don’t want to take away too many of your talking points but I was I smiled when I saw this uh come over so just tell me what you like about Mr Aaron Ry yeah so look Mr two gloves okay and he he was at it again by the way Phil Mickelson going full Aaron Ry at the PGA Championship wearing two gloves look terrible Phil uh but uh you know Aaron Ry is going to be popular this week but I think that he’s a really safe option uh you know you’re you’re choosing six players you don’t have to get crazy on all six right like you you can go a little chalky here and there I think Aaron Ry will be something close to chalk here but he came in fourth in my model I think that he’s going to pop in a lot of models because uh over the past month month he’s fourth on approach he’s fourth in proximity to the pin he’s top 20 in driving accuracy those are all the things that matters here uh do I think that Aaron Ry is gonna win this thing no but in DFS we need to get that six through six right I’m sorry six of six through to the to the weekend and I think that he’s a really safe play to just plug in there yeah Mr Aaron Ry Mr two gloves himself um when I was looking at these long shots or bigger price guys I already had the decision made up that I was going to bet Tom hogi I was going to bet him top 20 and I was going to bet him as an outright but I don’t want to give that pick out right because I feel like to often in this space Denny especially on the betting side the picks are just very similar right they’re the same cappers are betting the same guys why is that because they’re good course fits so we all know Tom Hog’s a good fit I don’t want to exhaust that that that narrative but someone who’s flying under the radar Keegan Bradley he’s has a higher price than Tom hogi Tom Hog’s 50 to1 and Bradley’s uh plus 5,500 so 55 to1 and his top 20 is 2 to1 so plus 200 sorry I got choked up there because I don’t want to get too excited but you know excitement just jumping out of my face I asked myself a question in my notes is Keegan Bradley trending up when I look at Keegan Bradley’s last couple of rounds right like he had back-to-back stinkers at courses that you know I thought he’d play well at uh the TPC and he played he played horrible at B SP over at inisbrook and then uh at the Masters uh t22 and then t21 at Wells Fargo and the PGA Championship quietly t18 but what’s really important is we talk about you need a guy who’s gonna be good on approach right he’s gained at least four strokes in three of his last four events in three in four straight events he’s gained at least three strokes and what’s really important when you start looking at these higher price guys especially guys who are rounding into form win Equity he’s won way more than Tom hogi no offense Tom hogi a better golfer than Tom hogi and I’m only using Tom hog because he’s priced around that number and when you look at high price guys they have this tendency to flash in a pan right like they’re good for two weeks and then kind of settle down but Keegan Bradley’s a season veteran I expect him to continue to Trend upwards until his game’s in the spot where he wants it to be uh only seven guys in this field have been more accurate off theam over the past two months uh than Keegan Bradley so we know he’s going to put himself in position to score we just have to hope that Keegan make some putts because he runs hot and cold with the p yes very and his and his his attitude his demeanor he’s the kind of guy if he things are going terrible you can go ahead and rip up your bet slip because there’s no bounceback from Mr Bradley yeah I know I feel like yeah you gotta adjust that mindset Keegan yeah yeah yeah yeah so uh a mindset you want to talk about running hot and cold mister I will yell at you if you say something that I don’t like Zack Johnson man I know uh we say what age is beauty or something like that you are definitely going for a lower price option that was not on my list that’s right tell me about Zack Johnson yeah I mean 5800 uh you’re you’re talking about like bottom of the barrel here and I would not go with Zach Johnson on any course that required uh any sort of length off the tea because my guy Zach Johnson is not hitting it far at all you may know this uh it may be time for the uh what do they call it the champion store uh for Z for Zack Zack Johnson soon but he has he has been okay on shorter courses uh he let’s see he gained Strokes on approach in three straight events he was 17th in Strokes uh gained on approach over the past month uh eighth in this field in driving accuracy and he tied for 20th at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago uh like I said I mean he he’s he’s in play on courses where you don’t have to hit it a mile that’s you know kind of what we have here again you’re looking for six of six and if you play Scotty sheffler you’re going to have to get weird in the $6,000 or even the $5,000 range on DraftKings Zack Johnson you could do worse is what I’m saying yeah he tends to have those pop rounds uh at courses that aren’t particularly difficult in length uh TBC run uh you already talked about him at the CJ at uh TBC Craig Ranch I I think Zack Johnson’s one of those where you just need him to play all right for the first two days get your six of six and get out so I like that um as always Denny you know this is this has been really fun uh for everyone watching thank you for checking this out make sure you check out nbcsports.com for more help with your Wagers this was going for the green I’m Brad Thomas here with Denny Carter thank you
