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what is up everybody welcome back we’re here to talk about the Charles Schwab challenge but uh let’s give a quick recap of the PJ Championship tremendous ending Xander chafl finally breaks through he’s gotten a lot of heat over the years for not being able to get the job done especially in Majors uh and he went out there and won it you know he played great on Sunday after his bogey on 10 bounced back with a couple birdies and then obviously needed a birdie on 18 to avoid a playoff with Bryson now I was cheering for Bryson had an outright on him at 28 to1 but also had the top five on him so um wasn’t a terrible week overall I hope all of you had a tremendous week and say what you want about Valhalla I know it played a lot easier than we would have liked to scen but you know produced a great leaderboard and it was a fun Sunday it was a fun watch on Sunday um and how about toasty driving uh driving that part four with the island green that was a lot of fun as well so this week Charles swab challenge let me pull up the PJ first look so this is an article that I do each and every week it is free for everyone um it has basically everything you need to know about the course the cut rule um so 132 golfers in the field this week the field is pretty thin at the bottom too uh we got some weather forecast let’s open up the weather finder or wind finder looks like there’s going to be some significant win all four days you know 20 plus mile per hour win on Thursday with and terms of the gust Friday we got 30 miles per hour gust kind of the same thing for Saturday and Sunday so should be difficult um scoring and they redid I redesigned a lot of uh Colonial Country Club so it’s now a par 70 the measures 7,300 yards um it’s already been a pretty tough course anyways 9th 11th 18th 13th and 7th in terms of difficulty over the last five years but they put about $20 million into this renovation um and so yeah should should be interesting they took out a lot of the bunkers you know made some grass bunkers they lowered some of the greens lengthened the course a little bit in terms of last year’s numbers so the Fairway width really narrow 27 a half yards um the the fairways here are treelined average driving accuracy was only 57% driving distance was only 283 yards and that’s because a lot of these holes have forced layups whether it be the dog lay with dog legs or whatever it may be so less than driver course for sure uh green regulation was only 58 % which is why scrambling has been so important here over the years we’ve seen Kevin Na play well here Jordan spe um two of the better scramble scramblers that you can think of terms of the approach shot distributions pretty equal across all the different buckets you know 8% from 50 to 100 yards 133% for the next bucket 21 23 16 and 11 again you can find all this in the first hook article at rotogrinders.com so I’m kind of looking for guys that are good total drivers of the ball I think this is one of the courses where it’s more of a second shot and in type of course so strok skin approach for sure strok SK round the green strok skin putting these are bent grass um and the greens are pretty small and then bogey voidness I do think it’s going to play rather difficult especially with that wind in the forecast and then um obviously if you want to check out course history I have all that in the first look as well if you’re not a premium member at RG um and don’t have access to my model um which has course history as well um you can just look at the look so last five years of course history and then also I have every event from 2024 as well as the cuts made this includes PJ tour DB World Tour corn Fray tour and Liv which obviously we don’t need to worry about this week with none of the live guys being in the field now let me pull up the model we’ll go through it we’ll talk about some of my favorite plays for the week and then we’ll get out of here so this week I’m looking very little off the t- metrics again the course was lengthened so maybe that’ll play a bigger role than we’ve seen at the past at Colonial but I only have a 6% weight to off the T metrics um show screen approach pretty heavy weight so I got % between the three different buckets in the the different time periods and then I got 4% to the expected stros game column which looks at the um expected approach shot distributions for each golfer at this specific course and kind of gauges who they who I think’s going to to hit the ball the best from those different yardages a lot of it comes from data golf’s metrics there shuffler number one hogi 2 fow 3 morawa four Lucas Clover five I’m going to talk about Lucas Clover quite a bit this week pretty big weight to Str being around the green pretty big weight to putting at least compared to normal weeks and then um bigger weights to bogy avoidance than b your better percentage because again I do think it’s going to play pretty difficult this has been a pretty predictive course when it comes to course history but again it might play a little bit different so I put course history at 5% I don’t hate bumping that down a little bit just because it’s going to be the first time that a lot of these golfers seen these renovations to the course uh the course fit straight from data golf um I only have it at 1% but we can look at who they think is the best fit for the course and you’re gonna see a lot of shorter hitters so Brendon Todd Zack Blair Andrew putam chz reevy Brans neaker Kevin kizler I mean those are um the classic short off the tea Scrambler putter types um and again Kevin now Jordan Speed have two of the best course histories here of anyone um I’ve got stros G in Texas that weighted at 5% guys that play the best in Texas Sheffer fasp D Matt coocher guys that play well on the com courses so I did harbort toown I did Pebble Beach and I did wly you got speed Poston Sheffer Denny McCarthy and Keith Mitchell think guys that play the best on lesson driver courses this was taken from the rabbit hole on bords we have a deal with them if you want to check that out get a little discount to their uh stat engine it’s a lot of fun to play with um so guys that play the best on lesson driver courses you have sheffler obviously Harmon Denny Eric Cole and Colin morawa then as always we got the form we got the shortterm which is the last three months midterm which is going to be the last six months and then long term is going to be the last 18 months uh you can weigh those however you see fit I like a pretty even distribution there now let’s get to the overall rankings we’ll go through the the players um but when I was recording this video we didn’t have ownership out yet but when I post this video to be downloaded for you the viewers um I I’ll have that ownership projections in there so um they will be available to you as you can see right now they’re just not up yet so I will get those up okay number one of the model skot sheffler not even close 95 and a half rating next closest is morau at 83.4 the question is do we want to play him I mean what a week for sheffler got arrested then came out and shot a great round but then struggled you know a little bit over the weekend mostly just Saturday but he’s obviously from Texas uh he’s finished second and third here the last couple years and you know even though off the te is not all that important this week he’s one of the best on approach one of the best around the green one of the best put or no not one of the best Putters but an improving putter so like sheffler hard not to like him um morow at 11,000 does feel like a lot so the problem with morawa is that he’s been playing well but a lot of it’s been around the green and putting those typically aren’t his strengths so you can look at this in two ways you can say hey if the ball striking comes back to the usual levels and the short game stays where it needs to be he’s GNA win one of these weeks if not if the ball striking stays where it’s at right now and the short game regresses to where we’ve seen it be his whole career then he’s not going to be able to pay off this price point so I don’t know what to do with morow this week he’s great course fit he’s got a good track record here I think he lost to a playoff in to Daniel Burger in 2020 so yeah no strong take there I’d probably rather just spend up a little bit more to get sheffler um number three in the model Denny McCarthy a little bit surprising there but he loves difficult courses rates out well in all the comps the course fits the lesson driver the Texas all that fun stuff he’s talked about his love of difficult courses plenty in the past you know he’s got a couple top six finishes recently do think a really good spot for Denny the same goes for CZ I mean the only weakness he has is off the teeth um kind of similar to Denny he’s very good on approach excellent putter good around the green so I think both of them are excellent options if you don’t want to go with the balance approach I certainly think that’s viable this week because if sheffler finishes like T8 you might not need him especially if the winner comes in that 8K range we got Brian armman a 9500 get another good course fit shorter hitter off the T and he gained 5.7 Strokes on approach last week so really good to see him hitting his irons well one of those golfers that tends to be streaky and I like seeing that ball striking out of him h i don’t love the course fit for him he tends to play his best on long and difficult courses it’s one of the shorter courses but I guess it was length in a little bit he’s got a couple top 10 finishes recently um no issue with them I just don’t want to prioritize them over some of the other options in this range I think it’s a great bounceback spot for seuk Kim especially if he’s going to be lower owned I mean he was a top 30 machine before missing the cut last week and if you look at his numbers I mean extremely accurate off the team he’s gaining Strokes uh mostly due to the accuracy which is kind of what you need this week uh excellent T green just comes down to the putter so I do like see a bounce back Kirk phi’s I don’t know it doesn’t feel a great paying 8,400 for him but the model loves him course history has been spotty kind of the same goes for OE um he’s really improved with the with the short game but he’s lost a bunch of Strokes off the te recently so maybe the shorter course will help him since he won’t be hitting a ton of drivers anyway or maybe he’s going to find himself in some real trouble if he does you know try to be aggressive off the te love putham he’s been so consistent this year um got you know couple top 15 finishes here the last five years speed is a tough one because the approach play has just been bad he’s driving the ball pretty well um but he’s talked about his injury him kind of being scared to make contact with the ground just you know thinking he’s going to aggravate that injury so that is a concern uh for Speed but he obviously loves this place and yeah it’s hard to argue with the results that he’s had in Texas or at this course in particular four top 10 in the last five years I want to say he won here before then as well uh F now just continues to you know be great with the irons he gave 9.6 Strokes on approach last week he’s underrated around the green he definitely likes bankr so if you want to look at you know splits in terms of the the grass type bad putter everywhere except on Ben grass and he’s got a bunch of top 25s here a couple top fives as well so I think F now is interesting uh 30 to1 might be a good number in the outright Market H Ben Griffin’s been playing well in these shorter courses all year Billy hols got four top 12 in his last eight starts including a win so if you want some upside a little more volatile than we’d like to see but um excellent tournament play there Adam Scott just man he really uh you know messed my lineup my main lineup up last week he was the one guy that missed the cut but other than last week he’s been playing some good golf and I think he was paired with tiger last week it’s always difficult to compare with tiger in these major championships so we can give him a pass for that uh we have hogi who’s on everyone’s outright card this week he’s one of the best iron players in the field his course history is not what you would expect it to be three miscuts in his last five starts but man he’s just striking the ball so well right now Aaron Ry anytime you get him in the wind or in Texas I think he makes a lot of sense um as you can see here he’s coming off of a a couple top 10 recently he was T12 here last year I think he is a strong option the problem with mcne is that he just hasn’t been hitting his irons well so he’s been playing well in these longer courses where you know he’s driving it well good around the green good putter but uh the iron game just hasn’t been good so that does worry me a little bit but he’s only 7700 English has been playing great no issue with him other than you know he feels expensive given to where I have him projected model but again the model is not the end all Beall if you like a guy that’s what this manual adjustment column is for go ahead and give him a 15% boost maybe not that much 7% boost get him to number 10 overall on the model um if you like somebody like Carris English moving down we have Mark hubard who man he was right there at the top of the leaderboard on Thursday and Friday at the PGA you know fell apart a little bit on the weekend but that’s kind of to be expected still t26 on the course it didn’t really suit his strengths uh was pretty impressive love Lucas clever so 7500 is a good price point um he’s a great ball Striker he’s accurate off the te and he’s gained around the Green in 10 of his last 12 so he’s got the T green game working the putter obviously can get cold but we’ve seen him get hot during stretches he won back-to-back events in the fall and good course history so I like lover he’s probably my favorite value play when it comes to single entry and cash games this week Keith Mitchell miscut last week it was on the number I mean he has just been terrible um around the green and putting so that kind of scares me on a Scrambler’s course sunjay no idea what to expect I mean he’ll come out shoot you know some great rounds finish in the top five then he’ll miss the cut then he’ll come out and play great again I just yeah I don’t know what to expect from sunj at the moment I would like to see more consistency out of him this feels like a great posting course but he hasn’t played great here shank almost won this event last year Taylor mois still hasn’t missed a cut all year although he uh is 0 for two at this event so you know one of the those two streaks is going to come to an end whether it’s him making the cut and ending his miscut streak or whether it’s him missing the cut and ending his made cut streak Brendan Todd I always play Brendon Todd on these tracks although I was diving through his stats get this he uh he’s lost off the te in 23 straight starts that’s pretty bad I mean I know he short off the te but he used to be really accurate and now he’s not accurate or you know very long off the te so um yeah I’ll still play some Todd I like the price point he’s got a couple top 10 here recently excellent Scrambler putter sto has been striking the irons really well I always like him in tournaments even though he doesn’t project all that well um gim finally showed up last week but he hasn’t been very good here in the past so I’ll probably pass on him Nate Lashley seems to pop in these shorter shorter courses dri played great last week my model never likes minwoo especially on these shorter courses um but he’s coming off a three straight top 30s maybe he’s found something a little bit in his game um it’s just a little too much for me 9700 and I think that’s just about it Andrew Novak um he’s gained around the green nine of his last 10 and he’s been really good ball Striker this year so 6,300 seems like a good price point for him and he’s seeing a lot of these courses for the first time but he played here last year made the cut so I think he’s one of the safer value plays you have Burger who won here in 2020 coming off of a t13 at the Byron Nelson so maybe he’s kind of f figuring some things out it’s good to see him back on the PJ tour feels like a great Tom Kim K I’ve seen him on a lot of outright cards already this week no issue with him he’s playing a little bit better um don’t have a strong take he’s never played here before and then chz Rey is really the value play the pops 5300 I’m not sure how much upside he has but he’s got three top 35s in his last five starts he’s got two top 40s in his last two starts here so you know you get the accuracy iron player and then you get a little mix of recent form and course history so thanks for joining me uh hit the thumbs up on the way out if you don’t mind if you want to join RG premium we’d love to have you if not thanks for watching the video um and then yeah join join the Discord it’s a lot of fun um we’ll have a link to that up on the site if you want to join the Discord is free uh we can sweat lineups and uh you know talk strategy all that on stuff so good luck this week at the Charles Schwab challenge catch you next week
