2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Odds | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at Fantasy National making early 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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#PGATOUR #Fantasygolf #DraftKings #DFS #DFSGolf #Golfbetting #LivTour #Underdog ##Colonial #CharlesSchwabChallenge

SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:33 Quick Notes
2:12 Course Flyover/Notes
8:31 Course Stats
11:37 Event History
18:14 Field/Stat Model
30:09 Putting
32:42 Proximity
34:48 Guess The Odds

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ENT the experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy Colonial well the Charles Schwab challenge picks research if you have not used code Mayo at Underdog fantasy yet and you’re watching this show give your head a shakes pal support the show code Mayo at Underdog fantasy you get a match deposit potentially of up to $250 it’s pretty high so you might as well take advantage of that bonus right now additionally my walkthrough today is powered by fantasy national.com if you go to Fantasy national.com Mayo you get 20% off all membership levels you’ll see all of the tools that I’m using to do my research plus you’ll get the ownership projections the simulator the live data and access to the best leaderboard app for Android and iPhone there is in the game and you can only get it by being a member at Fantasy national.com Mayo all right go do that right now I am so excited for Colonial this time around because they’ve ruined Heritage for me Heritage is supposed to be a venue the week after the Masters where you get a few of the bigger names but the next tier down of players all skill sets can win and they decide to make it an elevated event and have all the best players there Harbor toown doesn’t need that Harbor toown is a fantastic course Colonial on the other hand is the longest running single venue on the PGA tour it is a classical course they’ve played it every year since 1946 and it’s not an elevated event we’re getting some big names at this event most of the Texas guys but overall this field is very strong full of the types of players that we like to see it’s bigger than it normally is it’s usually an Invitational with 120 players in the field but this time around it’s going to be 136 they’re having issues squeezing in a of the cor fairy grads the guys playing off points from last year to get their number of starts in because of the designated events and so many majors going on and on and on throughout the year they’ve had to expand the field as some of these other tournaments I’m just glad that we’re getting a full test a full cut event at a course that I really love almost any skill set can win here and we take a look through the history we do the course preview we’re going to notice that a lot of older players tend to win here and it’s all irons and putting you hit your irons well you make a ton of putts you’re probably going to win at Colonial so let’s get to the course itself located just west of Dallas in Fort Worth Colonial CC as mention has been played on the PJ tour every year since 1946 it is a shade over 7200 yards almost 7,300 yards on the score card this year a power 70 only two power fivs bent grass six holes with water 84 bunkers around the property and an average green size of 5,000 square ft which puts it on the tiny side of your average PG GA tour green there are four par 3es the average distance 210 yards these are the four most parred holes on the course with the two on the front nine having a higher bogey than birdie rate 2024 winner amilo made power on just seven of the 16 par 3es he played last season one double three Bogies and five birdies which is kind of crazy to think about par fours there’s 12 of them the average distance 436 yards three of the most difficult power fours on the course all come on the front nine with hole number five and hole number nine having a double or Worse rate higher than 42% Grio took a penalty as we remember on the 72nd hole last year in double bogy before winning in the playoff he was minus one on 18 prior to that if you don’t remember he hit it into that it’s not even a creek it’s like a man-made Waterway and his ball just kept rolling back down and floating back down until they finally had to stop it and he ended up hitting it I believe he hit it off the cart path to try to get up and down but he was able to do that uh when it came down to beat Adam shank in the playoff the two power fives 610 yards on easiest two of the easiest three holes on the course with number one owning an eagle rate of 2.4% a 6% bogey rate though the only single digit under power rate on the course and as Grio as good as he was last year he played the per fives even through the first two rounds and minus three on the weekend we take a look at the scorecard overall you’re going to notice that you’re going to want to play your Showdown guys starting on hold number 10 going into the middle because you just get to leverage number one over and over the two easiest holes on the property uh and hole number 18 they play underpar 19.5% underpar if you play the course in order you’ll have to deal with hole number nine which is the second most difficult hole on the course the one that carries the highest double or worst rate at over 5% so you want to be starting on the back nine for Showdown purposes if that’s the way that you’re going to want to roll into it just a few more notes that hey you can kind of slice up you can basically slice up scorecards any way that you want but the horrible horseshoe holes three four and five I got some numbers for you about the horrible horseshoe plus5 Strokes over par is the average that it is playing since 2003 the toughest three to five whole stretch of any non- major venue that’s been played at least eight times good for you PGA Tour trying to really work that one in five players since 1983 have a cumulative career score two power on the horrible horseshoe of two under or better in a minimum of four rounds five players since 1983 six players have shot Seven under or better after playing the horrible horseshoe overp par during that same round what else do we have here 16.8% so 835 individual players have played at least one round at Colonial 155 players are without a birdie or better in their careers over these three holes 18.6% 15 players are better have a are without a bogey or worse in their career that’s under 2% of players that have played at least one round at Colonial of the eight of the last 11 seasons have seen the horrible horseshoe played at least a combined half-stroke overpower plus 616 was the toughest it played that was in 2014 73% and so there’s just more course notes Here 73.4% of greens hit from inside 125 yard so from 125 yards and in only 73% of players hit the green it’s the second toughest greens to hit from that distance on the PGA tour Riviera being the most difficult of that Bunch 33 feet 4 in is the average proximity inside 100 yards at the third longest of any course on tour last season and 55.8% of players are successfully able to get out of greenside bunkers the fourth easiest any course on the PJ tour just don’t ask Jason Jason crack he ended up outlasting spe but his Bunker play was atrocious and putting from 15 to 25 ft is the most difficult uh sorry the second most difficult on tour at least it has been over the past 5 years so those are some of the course notes that we’re looking at this time around and like as you can see on the fly through right now you don’t really need to crush the ball at all players who hit the ball pretty minimally do really well it’s more of an accuracy course a play and it’s sort of a part of what I like to call the Russell Henley swing that Colonial is like Harbortown or saw grass or Sedgefield or East Lake you just distance can help if you’re hitting it straight but you don’t need to you don’t want to get yourself in the trees I remember when they this is the first course they played coming out of Co Bryson tried to take on over the trees with a lot of stuff you just don’t need to just hit it down the Fairway hit your wedges well make some putts that’s the path to winning this tournament looking at the past leaderboards the top five finishers almost exclusively share the trait of gaining a little off the tea slightly less around the greens and a whole lot on approach in putting you’d think with below average size greens that chipping would be a major factor it just hasn’t materialized at the top of the leaderboard well a you well timed up and downs they’re going to be critical obviously you can’t chip yourself out of a tournament that’s not going to help you win but a great week from off the greens mean you’re just not hitting enough greens of Regulation pin stock with short irons make your putts eat your pows on the long power 3es hoist a novelty track be on your way that’s how we’re playing Colonial this week few more notes about the scorecard as you can see holes one and two are the two easiest holes on the course as I mentioned hole 18 being the 13th most difficult so one of the five most easiest all I mean number 17 and 18 both have birdie rates of 19% whereas 1 and two 44% and 26% again that’s why you want to start on the back nine going through everything and this is what I pointed out a little bit earlier for the top 10 finishers you can see little bit off the te Lots on approach little bit around the green Lots in putting now let’s factor that into the top five finishes and see how that looks again fantasy national.com Mayo in order to get full access to all of this it’s even more pronounced amongst the top five finishers they do gain slightly more off the tea and slightly less around the greens and I bet you with winners you’re just going to see a whole lot of putting would be up there oh yeah approach putting 1.3 Strokes gained per round on approach uh 1.25 Strokes game putting per round let’s just throw this out here now Tom hogi has to win this event this is the ultimate Tom hogi course it doesn’t matter what you do around the greens just don’t chip yourself out of a tournament gain a little bit off the tea approach and putting that’s his entire game we’ve been building towards the hogy win all season long currently Scotty Sheffer is in the field I don’t know if he’s going to end up in the field by the time they actually play but I still like hogi to win this one the time is coming for hogi he’s the right a 40s one at Pebble Beach another shorter course I just want to get that out there now in case people don’t want to wait around till the end even distribution between the par three Par Four and par five you can see the average shot distribution is I mean the the biggest bucket is 25% 150 to 175 125 to 150 so not a long a long irons however when we dig in a little bit deeper in terms of what we’ve seen statistically over time the long irons actually do play a significant role at this tournament historic cutline plus two plus two plus two each of the past three years years when you have the super field in 2020 it was minus1 and then it was plus three plus 3 plus 5 uh early weather reports are looking like it’s going to be super windy but we’re still 5 days out from me recording this and the tournament actually teeing off uh the windfinder that I’m using in case you want to know is called Benbrook it is on windfinder.com just type in Google windfinder Benbrook and that will show you what’s going on right now we’re looking at Thursday with rain and Gus up to 25 Friday no rain but Gus up to 25 again Saturday no rain Gus up to 22 and then Gus up to 40 on Sunday which would be somewhat reminiscent of what we saw two years ago when Sam Burns ended up beating sheffler in a playoff and he started from way back posted super early then all the leaders just started falling back and falling back because the course played incredibly difficult so keep that in mind average driving distance way down compared to your average Tour event here green regulation proximity to hole is much shorter except for if you’re trying to do it from inside 125 yards which just seems antithetical to what you would want to to what you would think a tournament would play it just doesn’t end up playing that way which is kind of hilarious taking a look at the history of this course and we can go back over the past five years we’ll sort by 2023 you can see amilo won in a playoff over Adam shank Harry Hall was just Untouchable that week on the greens if I recall for a guy who like sucks at putting he was just doing everything in his ability to make putts now now I need to go effort this just in case I’m wrong but that’s what I remember oh yeah yeah lost Strokes on approach gained almost eight Strokes putting and just margely chipping and putting for old AR o from Britain but uh yeah probably not going to do that again oh ecro was up there as well so the field this year is actually quite good but here are some things that I noticed uh so your past five winners are amilo Grio at eight under Sam Burns at nine under but he is not going to play this season uh Jason k CRA obviously went to live he beat spe by one at minus 14 um and we’re starting to see a little bit of a trend here Daniel Berger won the superfield event uh coming out of covid he beat morawa and Xander in a playoff I think I think that’s what it was or Xander like lipped out a three-foot putt to miss the playoff totally space on what it is now but this is like the ultimate moraca course which is kind of funny and he is playing this time around or at least morawa how he was previously constituted to hitting his irons really well but Burger won atus 50 that week and then the year before that Kevin nah hit that one 80 to1 that was a fun one beating Tony feno coming down the stretch I think he ended up winning by four at minus 13 He just made every single putt on Sunday it’s so awesome when the guy that you bet on actually is the one who’s just going nuclear and not the other way around which normally does happen but here’s something funny about looking at some of these winners so Grio came in gaining Strokes putting in five of his previous six starts before winning a year ago uh Sam Burns gained over four strokes putting in three of his four measured events before winning at this event Jason kokra in 2021 both guys played really well at valpar by the way and you see Adam shank ended up losing in a playoff here last year he also came second at valpar this year not this year the year before I think he was top 15 at valpar this time around so some little bit of crossover usually because of strength of field mainly but I just thought that was somewhat interesting to see those guys so kraak gain Strokes putting in each of his three events in five of six events including a run that was the fourth best putting week of his career Daniel Burger obviously this one got interrupted by Co but he had gained Strokes putting in each of his previous three events before this event then 2019 Kevin n gained Strokes in each of his previous three events prior to winning how Grio got it done in 2013 we saw that he took that drop in the playoff as his ball was floating down the river and ended up beating Adam shank in the playoff I did not cash that but I know a lot of people in the community did go cash that one so congrats to them I think I was on burns or Ricky fower one of the two either way not a winner glad if I can’t win I always want to see other people I know win a 65 on Friday was his best round of the week and the best on the course on Friday and it kept him in the picture he was four back of Harry Hall entering the weekend and he was the second best putter of the week you can see 7.4 Strokes gained on a on sorry putting wise only behind AR all but you can see 4.7 on approach lost a little off the te lost a little on around the greens great great on approach great putting and you kind of see that again even Adam shank who came in second he gained a little bit off the te gained a little bit around the green gained almost four on approach five putting that is the path of what you want to do don’t do the Scotty I mean you can do you can gain 15 Strokes T to Green like Scotty did he just happened to lose almost five on the greens this will turn into a putting contest at some point and it’s going to be incredibly difficult to win without doing that uh with if you’re going to be breaking even around the on the greens you unless you’re chipping in a whole bunch you’re probably just not going to have that much of a chance to win so in the wind defected year in 2022 we’re saying Burns won beating Todd and Sheffer feno Stallings Davis Riley Meo Pereira back when all these luminaries were on the PGA tour we can take a look at how they did it as well Sheffer again he just he gained point6 Strokes putting that’s how you end up losing in a playoff you just don’t gain enough now he’s been a much better putter as of late but Burns gains five gains a little gains almost three off the tee four on approach little around the greens boom spikes the putting week um yeah F was kind of traditional across the board in a more wind effective one you do see more of the te to Green overall coming to play more so than putting and approach but that was more of an outlier year with how the scoring ended up going it was a lot easier the first three rounds than it was in the final round so I don’t know if that’s going to affect anything this time but uh Burns improved each of the days 71 68 6765 gaining seven strokes on Sheffer on Sunday to force that playoff nine of the top 11 finishers gain in proximity from 175 to 200 yards the two exceptions were amongst the five best from Beyond 200 yards which I thought was interesting like hey it’s a really short course why would we care about that well if we take a look at 200 21 when KRA won of the top 11 in proximity from to Beyond 200 yards seven of them finished inside the top 20 isn’t that kind of crazy in 2019 when Kevin Na won the top four finishers all gained on the field in proximity from 175 to 200 and 200 plus yards so longer iron’s playing more maybe that’s because the shorter irons are so much more difficult at this course it’s the longer irons that you really need to go to I did not suspect that would come up that was not something that usually I try to do a few notes before we actually come on and try dig some of that stuff up but I just thought that was really interesting to go back and look at and I mean we can try to dig in to figure out why that is happening uh if we take a look here as well you can see that spe has played really well outside of last year another guy who has done well at Valspar he finished third to shank and Taylor Moore is Taylor Moore playing this event he is playing this event he’s been cut two years don’t care probably betting him best players of this tournament over the past five years in terms of Strokes gain total SP feno morawa how’s your burger sheffler Rose Grio hom Victor havin Brian Herman Andrew Putnam Brennan Todd the glove should be a good Glover course I just don’t know if he putts enough and to be able to do it either way uh you can see this tournament actually has names in it which is very surprising considering we go it probably means that Canada next week is just going to be devoid of any names probably why Sam Burns isn’t playing this cuz he’s an RBC guy so we’ll get Burns Rory fala Lowry a lot of the Euros Play the Canadian open I don’t know if Sheffer is allowed to leave the country anymore cuz he has a felony charge against him so he’s probably not going to be playing in Canada but then if there’s an signature event then the US Open then another signature event so Canada or this one is the likely skip spot but it doesn’t seem like that many guys are actually skipping this the field is incredibly good as I mentioned before so Scotty’s playing I don’t know if he’s going to end up sticking in the field just with everything that’s going on I think he’s being arraigned on Tuesday I’m guessing that they dropped the charges against him but you know that’s me I’m I’m wrong on a lot of things I mean anyone who follows the show knows how wrong I can be about a lot of things that maybe I’m wrong about that I don’t think that I am but if he wins the PGA Championship he doesn’t like not playing in the Texas events so so he might feel a commitment to go do that Sheffer who do we got here just in terms of Strokes gain total over the past 24 rounds I can read you some names here Scotty baa SEIU horel Denny McNeely Ben Griffin all right here were some actual like good names here Taylor Moore Aaron Ry Harris English Jagger Kirk Kirk has won here before hogi and morawa bet hogi any number Novak straa shank Davis Thompson Adam Scott is playing in the field this week havland is playing in the field this week CT pan perer sunj trying to get his life back together minwu Lee wacky valami Tony feno fow should have won the Kevin Na year he just couldn’t make the putts coming down the stretch which is not new to Tony feno not making putts coming down the stretch but it’s a spot where he’s played pretty well in the past ekro uh is in the field as well he’s played well here in the past gup coming off I guess he wouldn’t be coming off a win at this point coming off a Miss cut at the PGA Championship but winning in Myrtle Beach list and spe hego Bobby Mack having a good PGA Championship so far Grayson Murray Carson young so Keegan Bradley is playing in this field hopefully he wins the PGA Championship starting the weekend back very very far don’t care still hope he wins Nikolai hoard Cam Davis thorbjorn olison like real names are in the field this week as his defending Champion milanoo so lots of really good players this would all actually be this might be a really nice week to bet see woim because he ends up missing the cut uh it’s the reason that I’m going to beat Tambo and our head tohe head because I took a very anti- SEO stance this week because you’ve been Mr consistent but you just don’t pick a guy who loses that many strokes putting and by the metrics that I just talked about you would not want any part of sewo because he can’t putt whatsoever and I doubt he’s probably putted well at all in his life at this course no of course he hasn’t he’s made two cuts and six starts but this is a part of the sea woo slam he’s got Sony he’s got Windam he doesn’t have Harbor toown but he has a second he has a playoff loss there and he has Saw Grass so and then Colonials the other one as a part of that mix you can even put AMX into it as well if you really wanted to where SE wo does have a win so uh this is all count it’s all coming around for these are the types of tournaments where SE plays really well where you don’t need a ton of distance off the tea and if he does Spike one of these off the tea putting and chipping rounds and it is a little bit windy and we get more of this like 6 gain stroke putting maybe he can contend for a victory in a tournament like that more on the modeling and the key stats that we need to look at I might amend this one a little bit we’ll go to manage models on fantasy national.com do you want to let everyone know Omaha Stakes is sponsoring the show as of tomorrow so get your Father’s Day gifts in now with Omaha Stakes code Mayo get you a big discount over there there’ll be more details come Monday as they become the official sponsor of Father’s Day month on the pat Mayo experience but just want to let you know that’s happening I I get them for my dad every year now and I get them for cam too who weirdly is very much closer to my age kind of feels like my older brother in a weird way and dude loves steaks so you know gota gotta get got to get Cam his steaks in he’s looking thin and trim these days and you know he needs that protein to really get everything going so I you know oh Omaha stakes. code Mayo going to help you out over there all right help us out by helping out our friends our sponsors at Omaha stakes. all right so I clicked on the colonial and then I just refreshed the page on fantasy National so I can get it to load itself in and then we go to pass let’s say 12 rounds and instead of The Strokes gain model in The Strokes gain model which I kind of default to every single time you can see my waiting here on the screen I just kind of wait all four of them together that sheffler Denny Ry SEIU straa baa low Mitchell sh Kim Ben Griffin Ryan Moore Lucas Glover D Lashley putam Ben Martin Max hom Adam Scott Chan Kim Chris Kirk that’s the top 20 but I want to look at the colonial pretty good well that’s always good news and we’ll see what we have in here in terms of the modeling right now what’s do we got Strokes gained approach 30% Fairways gained 10% off the te 5% so it lean towards Fairways as a bigger part of off the tea than distance perfect fours overall 10% power fives 5% sand saves five proximity 100 to 125 yards 7% opportunities gain 5% putting 5 to 10 feet 5% 10 to 15 feet 5% proximity 150 to 175 so I’m going to do is get rid of 100 to 125 I’m going to throw that back in at the bottom 100 to 125 proximity where we at for proximity at the very bottom 100 to 25 and then we just kept seeing that 200 plus stuck out so I’m going to get rid of the bigger bucket of the one of 150 to 175 where the majority of shot not majority the plurality of shots come from on approaches just to find in my research that these 200 plus proximity guys were the ones who were really doing well and and I can probably dial down Strokes G approach a little bit from 30 to 25% to allow for a little bit more balance here and try to chop away at what we want to see from the players over the past 12 rounds so past 12 rounds proximity from 200 yards plus spawn Kevin Yu Michael block Ryan Moore Patrick Fishburn so a lot of jabronies uh when we do the longer term for that we’ll see we’ll see who matches up the best year spawn who’s won in Texas before he won in I think he won Houston or Valero one of the two but you know great wedge player great from Beyond 200 yards as is Smotherman Patton kazy fits that mold Max hom fits that mold really well you know what I’m going to throw in the 75 to 150 as well just take a look at that to see if there’s anyone who rates out really well in all three of those and you probably want to have a longer sample size than 12 rounds looking at proximity ranges just so you because certain courses might be you know you could hit it from 175 to an elevated green or down a hill that you get out some of the variants the longer the sample that you go into so the holes even if they’re a little bit different hopefully it Smooths out that variance just a little bit but what I’d be wanting to see is just guys that are good at all three of those categories like Ryan Moore Lucas Glover they all kind of pop up but overall in the modeling Scotty’s number one this guy doesn’t know how to be number one he doesn’t know what Fiona and me are doing in his car every Sunday he also doesn’t know how to be number one although I mean I guess his car is probably in the impound lot you could probably get away with doing some stuff in Scotty’s car at the moment Scotty Glover Moore Ry Ben Martin Keith Mitchell low Bez this theoretically should be an awesome Bez course maybe Bez needs to get on who’s gaining Strokes putting it’s basically what we’re looking at here it’s Bez Bez is gaining a ton putting coming in so he he fits that criteria of gaining a bunch on the greens uh so does morawa by the way Mora’s putting has been electric over the past month or so he’s finally hitting his irons well so gained at the Masters gained the second most of the Masters 3.3 at Heritage three at Wells Fargo I think he’s currently gaining five at the PGA Championship through two rounds he’s actually gaining with his approaches and off the team as well he’s just having a great week obviously but it might be time for morawa even if he ends up winning the PGA Championship puls a Scotty goes win-win beaten Scotty twice who knows hogi is number 15 hubard is up there as well baa spawn Griffin Matty Schmid how’s baa doing on the green since he won oh the putting has been really good for baa as well terrible at the Wells Fargo overall missed the cut at the PGA Championship but you can see the smaller birdie style courses this one’s a bit more difficult but we’re not really concerned about around the green that much what we want to have is great iron play and we want to have great putting and that’s sort of bia’s wheelhouse uh he had a nice run through Texas earlier 11th and first in his two Texas starts so far this season so got to keep baa on the radar as well the other thing we’re going to do is go to the rolling model so take the rolling model and we’re going to go to Colonial and try to see some guys over different styles of or different time periods of how they’re going to rate out with the key stats that we’re looking at right now we’ll flip back over to proximity in a second to see how that goes so in the overall model you can see we pull it up everything’s weighted I like to build a pyramid with this basically so we go 48 and we want 12 24 and then a little less on 50 and then a little less on 100 so four you know we want to weight it in because it was the last time anyone played with weighted stats but really it’s you know it’s four rounds it could be anything uh and we don’t want to necessarily go back a 100 rounds two and a half years ago so what we’re really going to put the emphasis on is 12 15 and 50 as a part of the Rolling model and we’ll update that and see if it gives a slightly different results so Scotty Rye but Rye can’t putt so that’s a problem neither can Glover neither can Moore neither can SEIU neither can Mitchell hogi can putt he’s like Yan when it comes to cooking Yan can cook hogi can putt hogi can’t chip is the real issue so hogi is gaining Strokes on the Green at the PGA Championship right now it would actually put him in the Grio and CRA sweet spot of gaining on five of his past six coming and the only one where he did not do well was the Byron Nelson take a look back at his history it hasn’t been good at this course but it wasn’t good at the Players Championship either or where the hell was it when he made the run it was one of those courses where he was just horrible uh and he didn’t end up with a great result the players obviously he ended up coming t-54 but that was all really one horrible horrible round other than that he had played quite well throughout the course of the week but you can see the Spike putting is or the spike approach is back this week at the PGA Championship at Val Hall he’s gained over two strokes per round through the first two uh ditto with putting the driving’s been okay the chipping has been you know not bad which is all you need from him decent driving great on approach great putting he can do that you can see the different times this year he’s already done that if we can just get that again at this course we’re going to be good to go with old Hollywood hogy so he rates in number seven morawa Bez so short Bez because I I’m not going to bet sheffler so what else are we going to do here Bez hogi or two baa depending on what his odds are coming in he’s a bit young for the uh the average style of winner at this course I mean even Mark Hubbert hell he’s inside the top 20 here he’s ahead of H Burger is starting to Trend back in the proper direction again a lot of that is weighted towards what he had done two years ago but let’s take a look at what he has done recently played and he played well in Myrtle Beach too played pretty well by Nelson maybe he is starting to get it back just that would be very nice to see from him havin 23rd yeah there’s not a lot of big names here so let’s go to putting we can take a look at bent putting but I don’t think it really makes that much of a difference because we haven’t been seeing that much bent on the PGA tour so far um so so far in the last little bit so let’s go back to let’s just wipe everything off go just click back on fantasy National if you ever want to reset your filters that’s the easiest way to go do it and we’ll go Strokes gain past 24 rounds but we’ll change that to putting to see who we have putting wise coming in to see if they’re gaining on the greens so McCarthy sh Kim there’s Bez near the top s so we liked Bez Harris English is another one let’s see how he’s doing he ended up making the cut cut he was seven under after two rounds at the PGA Championship it’s been a bit of a struggle but you see the putting quite good this is I mean he kind of get every criteria here he’s playing pretty well this season he can you know he doesn’t really gain a ton off the te or he can gain around the greens he gains on the greens when he plays well with his approaches he can gain with his approaches he’s a bit older that we like to see has played some of these other shorter courses really well in the past how has he played here 12th a year ago 2 in 2016 5ifth in 2012 we’re going back 12 years he’s the right age too to like pull a kizner at this event so maybe Harris English we can throw on there obviously all of this is going to be dictated by the odds that people come in with but I do like to see guys who can putt pretty well coming in uh who else do we got here Billy hoe is someone who’s won in Texas in the past take a look at him and all right so let’s see Colin morawa would fit the criteria got Daniel ha your burger Thomas dietry I mean diet’s puttings out of this world he’s going to come in with good form regardless he’s in like third place the PGA Championship at the moment Billy hoe comes in gaining got his winning corales as well uh bo Hustler beautiful bow you know he’s always gaining on the greens I don’t think he HS enough approach as well to really consider him so we’ll Chuck him out other guys Hermon I mean this could be a really good Brian Herman course too I mean as much as I dislike Brian Herman he just played he’s played valbar well in the past he’s played Pete D courses well shorter courses are kind of his bag baby so yeah maybe him McNeely loves to putt loves small greens could be another time for him how has his putting been I assume amazing the fact that he’s not number one is frankly shocking oh he’s had two bad tournaments in a row on the green just dominating with the putter before that so that’s the way it’s looking for putting let’s take a look at the proximity splits I mean it’s going to be Scotty but outside of Scotty who else could it potentially be right now proximity gained over the past 24 rounds we’re looking at proximity the best Scotty Sheaffer yeah he’s top 10 in all right we’re going to sending order here everything inside 150 he’s top 10 he’s just slightly outside 175 to 200 but he hits the ball so godamn far that doesn’t really matter to him of doing it that way so who are the some of the best 200 to 200 plus and 175 to 200 we see feno is really excellent from that range Aaron Ry is really good from both those ranges Ryan Moore Keegan Bradley Ben Martin okay from both so was Martin leair Andrew Novak is pretty good there is looking pretty good there he’s cach Z from Home Star Runner Harman is pretty good at the it’s funny the over the past 24 rounds the further that you get away from the hole the better Brian Herman is mty Schmidt play short courses and Pete D courses really well I this is not a Pete di course but guys that play well at Pete di courses have historically played really well at Colonial so keep that in mind so maybe he is one to look at rates out well from these longer ranges uh and if we just sort by 100 to 125 see who the best is hogy Sheffer okay there easy game there’re your winners right there one of those three probably your three favorites in the tournament you’ll have if we guess the odds you got Scotty at plus 100 hogi at plus 200 Bez at plus 300 I assume this is if razza is making the odds on everything but that’s the way that I’d be looking for everything this week the glove actually rates out really well too so maybe I’ll give Glover another look a little bit deeper I know that he ended up making the weekend at the PGA Championship I assume it’s not off the back of his putter cuz a guy never putts well except for those few times that he did and one back toback events but the TD green has been really good for him over the past two months and me basically all year has it been pretty good for him and this is kind of the range where he could win I I don’t love the putting splits at all but winning at Windam does kind of trigger something in my mind that hey maybe this is another spot to look at Lucas Glover with how good he can be trying to pin seek at some of these tournaments okay it’s time to guess the odds for the Charles Schwab challenge at Colonial CC Scotty sheff remains in the field for the moment so obviously he is going to be the favorite and I’m doing this before the conclusion of the PGA Championship so I have no idea who has played well on Sunday who has won who has blown up and obviously that will affect all the odds the way that I see it we’re probably going to get Scotty at plus 275 to open again I really don’t think he’s going to end up playing in this tournament depending on what the legal issues end up going if he has to be at an arraignment in Louisville on Tuesday then he’s probably not going to be playing in the Charles Schwab challenge although the guy go from jail to the golf course and shoot five under so who the hell knows he might just show up like day of fly in that morning end up shooting 54 in the first round or something but plus 275 is where I’m going to say it then you get to the next TI I think there are four guys in this next TI morawa havland H and spe spe does not deserve to be in the same tier of the betting odds as those three guys but it’s Texas for one thing it’s a shorter course and it’s Jordan [ __ ] spe he’s going to end up being up there so I can see those those guys being 12 12 14 16 feno might even be on this tier as well if he finishes good enough at the PGA Championship to maybe make him a 20 but those are the five morawa havin hom be and Tony feno the next tier down are sort of the short hitters older players that kind of thing you have Harmon sunjay Tom Kim Keegan Bradley Min woo Lee see woo Kim and sep straa I think that those seven will be on their own mini tier anywhere between as high as 25 as low as 45 predominantly being in that 35 30 35 to one range the next tier after that Denny oxe Jagger Glover Adam Scott and Harris English 40 to 55 that sort of range maybe one sneaks into 65 because the strength of this field is a little bit better and then we go into hoard dri Kirk Grio hogi Bez JT Poston Ricky Fowler they could be priced anywhere from 50 to1 to 90 to1 depending on the book that we’re looking at and for bets so far that I like obviously not knowing what the numbers but anticipating what those numbers are going to be hogi and Bez really did leap out we did the walk through of the certain types of guys that win at this tournament for one thing and the guys that can win at good numbers you know Kevin naw ends up winning this tournament at 80 to1 Jason kokra hits at 75 to1 milon Grio 75 to1 a year ago there have been bigger names at higher odds who have won or lower odds who have won but we’ve really seen that next class of player really excel at Colonial and this tournament is been contested with some pretty good names and it you don’t usually get the very top of the top but Scotty has played this almost every single year we saw Burns end up winning it we do have that valpar connection that I talked about as we went through it along with some of the Pete D and shorter Bermuda courses despite this being B grass greens that’s the way that I would see it this week use code Mayo an underdog fantasy .c to help out the show and get a deposit bonus of $250 and fantasy national.com to get it all done all right smash like share around the show while you’re here I’ll be back with a recap of the PJ Championship with fineberg and a full breakdown of the betting board at Colonial Monday morning so I’ll see you there all right Pat Mayo see you next time 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