PGA Championship Betting & DFS | Heat Check

Intrigue is high for this week’s PGA Championship as both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy enter in elite form. Can they keep the hot streak going, or will someone else claim the title at Valhalla Golf Club? FanDuel Research’s Brandon Gdula and Jim Sannes preview the event, discussing the course, their favorite bets at FanDuel Sportsbook, and key building blocks for DFS on FanDuel.

36:19 PGA BETTING
54:31 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP DFS

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[Music] [Applause] [Music] the PGA Championship is here and wo bu do we have some story lines for this week Scotty Sheffer on a heater coming off a layoff Ro Moy coming off a win and going to the same course where he won his fourth major a decade ago we’ve got all the live guys back in the fold all the the guys trying to break through on the PGA regulars like Xander chafl Justin Thomas it’s gonna be a fun week at Val hall for this week we’re going to break down our favorite bets and DFS plays for the PGA Championship on FanDuel for this week to get you ready for what should be a banger of an event this is the heat check right here on the FanDuel podcast Network and FanDuel research my name is Jim sonis I am a managing editor of FanDuel research joined here as I am every Tuesday by Brandon gulla check him out on Twitter atad 13 you can find his work at FanDuel research where he is a senior managing editor Brandon the PGA Championship is this week how are you doing today I’m doing great I’m very excited for this week’s event um I don’t know if we’re going to get like the Scot Sheffer Runway I kind of hope not like I am rooting for Scotty just to make history and just be a dominant Force but when he is dialed in it it does kind of you’re just rooting for greatness at that point but if if he’s a little bit more of a human this week is probably going to be really fun because we talked about this uncovering the spread earlier but boy there are so many narratives this week yeah Something’s Gonna someone’s going to like Catch Fire it’s going to be it just feels I feel like more excited for a PGA Championship than I have in a long time yeah it’s like in a weird spot in the calendar where it’s like kind of close to the Masters and so like you don’t get like a massive massive buildup uh there’s that there’s more of the weekend next weekend so it’s like in a weird spot in the calendar to get like super super hyped but for this year because of all those fun narratives I am having no issue getting up for this week it should be a whole lot of fun we’re going to break down this year’s PGA Championship let you know our favorite bets over at FanDuel Sportsbook for this week and also talk about our favorite DFS plays on FanDuel as well but first a reminder to make sure you’re subscribed to the FanDuel research podcast Fe wherever you get your podcast we’re here every Tuesday breaking down that week’s PGA event talking her favorite bets and DFS plays over on FanDuel that goes up on the FanDuel research podcast feed and on FanDuel TV plus also on YouTube for this week hello to the FanDuel YouTube page uh leave us a thumbs up for the FanDuel YouTube page you can find us on FanDuel TV plus and the FanDuel research podcast me each and every Tuesday to get you set for that week’s PGA Tour event go search for fandor research podcast wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe and if you like what you’re he leave us a fstar rating as well Brandon also mentioned we H talked PGA Championship on covering the spread of this morning that show already up on the FanDuel YouTube page FanDuel TV plus and the covering the spread podcast feed as well NBA NHL playoffs coming up tomorrow uh pris Stakes on Thursday we’re going to talk some boxing on Friday uh final week of the eepl as well NASCAR All-Star Race Formula 1 in uh IMA this weekend so it’s a jam-packed week in the sports betting calendar golf second major is here you can bet on who you think will go home with the hardware on FanDuel right now new customers get $150 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet that that’s 150 bucks to use on outright winners finishing positions and so much more plus you get paid instantly when you bring home a major Championship win this major season so don’t wait download America’s number one Sportsbook and swing for some green must be 21 plus or 18 plus in DC and president select States FanDuel is offering online Sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call one800 Gambler or fanduel.com RG in color Colorado DC Illinois Iowa Kentucky Michigan New Jersey North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Tennessee Vermont and Virginia call 1800 next step or text next step to 533 42 in Arizona 1888 789 7777 or visit CC pg. chattin Connecticut 18009 with it in Indiana 18005224700 visit Kos gambling health.com in Kansas 877770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health.org in Maryland 1800 gambler. net in West Virginia 18005224700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or cl3 75050 for 247 supporting Massachusetts or call 18877 open y or text open Y in New York let’s dig in now to the PGA Championship and break down what to expect for this weekend it is going to be at Valhalla Golf Club which is 7,609 yard and a par 71 theal has hosted three previous PGA championships with the most recent one being back in 2014 where mooy got the win there there are 156 golfers in the field the top 70 plus ties make the cut after two rounds so 70 plus ties making the cut for this week hey difference from previous or other PGA Tour events keep that in mind as always Brandon when you look at valala obviously not a lot of traditional shotlink data we can look at but we can look back at least to 2014 and glean some stuff so what should we know about this course before we F out our bet slips and DFS lineups yeah so it’s a very long course it’s going to be the third longest on tour or you just play I mean on on the PGA tour if you compare it to the other PGA Tour courses um third longest of the season and you’re going to need some driving distance I don’t know if there’s a whole lot um around that basically if you’re short off the tea you got to be dialed in with the long irons approaches from 200 plus yards but what I went ahead and did was pulled data from the 2014 PGA Championship it’s all we have really have just the cut makers in terms of The Strokes gain data so it is a small sample but it also kind of tells us a little bit and we can compare uh Valhalla compared to other PGA Tour courses and see what kind of stands out and one of the big things I mentioned the distance uh driving distance had a a stronger correlation at Valhalla in 2014 than what you get at your average PGA work course by a pretty you know big margin I’ll spare most of the numbers here but the correlation so if you just knew driving distance the correlation with Strokes gained was 37 it’s about a 0.6 you know compared to the full PGA Tour schedule uh and we saw the inverse of course with with driving accuracy a 08 um at this course compared to a 0 26 in terms of the you know the regular PJ tour course so much more emphasis on driving distance because of the overall distance but we see that played out on a Ho by hole basis if you just run through each hole look how long it is look at other you know holes relative to par you get a lot of long holes and not a whole lot of relief there are just basically two holes that are substantially shorter than average relative to par one being the 13th which is a cool island green so it’s not even going to be like necessarily drivable um so it’s it’s a lot of like it’s going to be kind of Relentless when it comes to the distance and so that’s why driving distance is going to be super super important for me but of course again I mentioned this already but if the distance isn’t there you need approach play you need long irons but realistically you need good irons in any major but these greens are smaller than normal two they’re they’re 5,000 square feet on average according to the gcsaa smaller than the PGA average which is usually a little over 6,000 square feet could to be the third smallest screens uh played this season on the PGA tour uh schedule so distance small green so you got to have the irons and while we didn’t see a a big emphasis on putting or around the green play in 2014 When comparing it to the full tour uh average we did see like we actually saw a little bit of a d emphasis in around the green play putting about the same but putting does tell us a lot about scoring so you know it’s a major and anyone who’s ever seen us do a major show they know that I basically just reduce this down to the best golfers um the ones who just have the best strok gain numbers adjusted for field strength uh and recency but overall I need good ball Strikers I need length off the te I need Strokes G approach and I need the putters so I don’t think there’s a whole lot you can do poorly and still be in the consideration set for me especially for betting when it comes to outrights but there are a lot of names this week from a DFS standpoint and frankly in the middle like the the 9,000 range this week tons of names tons of names that are intriguing to some degree so that’s how I’m looking at it this week I don’t want to over complicate it and I’m assuming we’re g to be roughly on the same page there yeah we want distance and I think that’s the key thing to emphasize here but I want to ask you um given that they’re small greens we want we want approach we want to emphasize that despite what you know like you said from the data in 2020 2014 we want good approach players unfortunately a lot of the best iron players not a lot and I know the distance translates to the bag but some of those guys who are really good at the irons are not going to gain distance off the tea uh so I’m talking about like a a Russell Henley type guy Christian bizay and ho guys like that guys we talk a lot about here on the show even even Cory Connor is not short but he’s also definitely not long off the te either how much of a downgrade do those guys get where they have a crucial import a crucial component that we want with that good approach play but they’re going to struggle to keep up from a distance perspective relative to the field so that goes back to like you said distance tends to translate throughout the bag but data Golf and their course fit tool is showing uh much higher frequency of approach shot distribution expected from 200 plus yards this week which makes sense based on how you know it’s just a lot of long par fours um but then also a par three that’s going to play around 250 that is like a long iron territory you can check out either the PGA Tour stats website so PJ tour.com um approaches from over 200 yards they have that data golf though also has their approach skill tool which you can check out and you can sort by a couple different things um like Strokes gained per shot good shots from like certain distance is you can look through that and see okay who might be a if you’re interested in golfers who might be a little bit shorter off the tea are they still good with those long approaches frankly you might be surprised sometimes where if you’re short off the te and you’re on the PGA tour you’re playing well you’re playing well enough for us to consider it’s probably because you’re pretty good on those long approaches that you’re facing maybe a little bit more than other golfers who are longer so you have resources I’ll try to cite that throughout the show you know most people that I am looking into roughly fit that but if they don’t they’re they might be long off the tea but not great with that with those long irons or you know vice versa there might be someone who doesn’t necessarily fit either but they’re just so good and so consistent elsewhere but that’s one of the biggest changes I think I’m making where in the past I might have I don’t like to look at Super granular data because it doesn’t always adjust for field strength or conditions or samples the know PGA Tour website’s great but you just get the full season thankfully with data golf um and you don’t have to be a member for it no uh for this tool like you can look through past you know two years last 12 months Etc try to get a feel for who might be good on those long approaches so again I don’t like to get super granular but this week it’s a major going to spend a little bit more time anyway you know any name you think is a little bit short off the te but you still like see how they check out in those stats I think it’s interesting and it’s important too that they’re not cross off necessarily if they’re not super long just a downgrade and that downgrade may be enough where you don’t get to them but like they’re not cross offs like uh data golf has a total Strokes gained adjustment based on course fit and that takes into account distance all that stuff and bazen hoo loses 0.8 Strokes per round based on course fit which is bad but also he’s a really good golfer so you can kind of afford to lose 08 and still be on the map somewhere while I get to him I don’t think I’m gonna get to him but like you know you’re not Crossing him off Sly with Henley he’s at negative .07 so keep that in mind but it’s not a you you must have distance in every single golfer in your DFS lineup you can’t bet even a top 20 and a long like golfer does a distance stuff like that just it’s important to keep in mind there is uh it’s not black and white here yeah and like you mentioned Henley you look we don’t do a lot of course comp like comparable courses stuff but Quil Halla is a good comp for Valhalla that was what they played last week for the Wells Fargo Henley was T10 he did not gain a lot of distance he gained a bunch of Fairways hit his long irons or hit the irons overall well T10 like it’s not exactly the same but golfers who were really good can overcome one thing and it’s like Russell plays every course at a distance disadvantage this is different than saying like oh Buy in because he’s short or something like that’s not it it’s if you’re good enough elsewhere you can still be in consideration so like you said not a cross off uh but it is really appealing I think to have more and more stats uh shout out to data golf for this I think I just talked myself into a Russell Henley top 10 oh no oh well well you you’re hey you’re you’re always living in the top 10 territory I think a top 20 um I’d have to look at the numbers there I’ve got a top 20 for a different short golfer so I don’t mean like short physically but like you know not you will hear me recommend Russell Henley in the DFS section as a like okay I might get to him before that so uh winner winner chicken dinner okay let’s talk about there’s no course history like CU that’s 10 years ago and golfers are very different Rory seems kind of similar but you know a lot of golfers have changed since 2014 nothing’s changed in Rory’s life in the past 10 years uh not in the past week either but um we can look at PGA Championship history because it does tend to be a lot of courses that have some similarities at least so Brandon you dug back into past PGA championships and looked at golfers who have done well in those specifically so in this kind of setup who has excelled uh based on the underlying data well you might not believe this but Brooks capka yes pretty pretty good um oh there’s more sorry I got sidetracked there’s new data on PGA I’m have to check this stuff out oh wait sorry I got distracted on their leaderboard I don’t know if it’s just for the PGA Championship but their leaderboard looks kind of different um but yeah speaking of PJ tour you can also check out like past five event history at this event too like with their field tool um so shout out you know I want more golf data I love it we’re living in finally we’re starting to live in like the Golden Era of of golf data but let’s talk Brook Kea who has two wins over the last five PGA championships also a T2 for him t-55 and t29 as well what’s he been up to lately well he did win uh by Two Shots his most recent live tour start um was ninth at the event prior as well when he won last year he would had two top 10s leading in I’m not you know there’s only so much we can do when it comes to figuring out what these live guys are doing but we know that Brooks capka is long off the te we know that he can hit his irons really well hit Greens in regulation I’m not even saying like pick up a ton of Strokes approach but hit Greens in regulation and then two putt for par and move on whenever he needs to so it’s no surprise really that he’s played the PGA championships well uh Justin Rose though also might not be as obvious but uh T9 t13 T8 ninth and t29 at the PGA Championship Scotty sheffler has three top 10 in a missed cut um again not surprising really all these names I’m about to read are studs uh Rory mroy t7 eth 49 33rd and eth he’s golfing well one here of course but that’s not even factored in to the last five years to figure out who’s got the best Strokes gained average Xander schofl t18 t13 M cut T10 and t16 so four top 20s over the last five years for my guys Ander chafl love that for him Dustin Johnson while he is a stud longterm we’ll talk more about the recent form here in a second but t-55 miss cut Miss cut but two top twos dating back four and five years ago he won uh in Las Vegas on the live tour in February then was outside the top 20 in four straight Live Events did finish t7 in Singapore but did miss the cut as well at the Masters with awful ball striking I’m not there I think his salary on fandel was like in the mid 9,000 maybe upper 9000s but I’m not getting there I just you know I’m just doing my I’m just doing my job reading through the list here he’s 97 um you know how it shows like FanDuel points per game for for golfers he only has the Masters obviously negative 1.39 FanDuel points in that uh in that one game not great game in quotes just for the audio people I know it’s not a game not a game not a game we talking events uh Shane Lowry he’s got a T12 t23 T4 over the last three years and was T8 five years ago Bryson Des Shambo uh two two top fives with a Mis cut um in there but that’s pretty appealing for Bryson who’s been t26 and t27 at Adelaide and Singapore and the Liv tour respectively but really just one bad round among those six he had five straight top 10s prior I think that’s appealing uh surprise surprise big p Patrick Reed t18 t34 t17 t13 for him uh was T12 at the Masters t22 at Adelaide T14 at Singapore after two top 10s prior to the Masters he always seems to be lurking seems like he really cares about these Majors uh but just uh two more names here quickly Victor hland T2 t41 T30 and t33 for him did miss the cut at the Masters t24 at the Wells Fargo but was top 20 or top 15 rather in both of the ball striking stats I think we’re all kind of waiting to see with Victor hland I think he was one of your win picks last week even maybe not but you were considering him that was not an actual bet that was a win pick for the show I’m not on him at all this week personally okay then Colin morawa you know a win for him T8 t-55 and t26 he’s coming in with three straight top 16s in his stroke play events with T3 at the Masters again one of those golfers who is not long off the te but we know that he can kind of like in in theory hits his long irons really well the data is not quite as impressive from over 200 yards so I’m not out on him but I don’t necessarily like him as much as I typically do and I will just shout out will allures who’s got two top 10 and his only two starts usually I look at golfers with at least you know two to three starts but this week uh to account for volume I did Total Strokes game not per round so shout out to will zorus as well a question for you I’ve had the Windam Clark theory of betting for the past year where if he’s 80 to1 you bet him and I thought that was Windam Clark specific will zotor is 80 um he shown upside at some recent events uh didn’t did withdraw before uh the it was an event in Texas which uh was the RBC Heritage I don’t know he withdrew before a recent event and then play at the Wells Fargo didn’t look very good at the Wells Fargo does it make him across off or does the spike we potential for zalot Taurus makeing a consideration when it seems like nobody will be on him well it’s not it’s not Nei like it’s not a AIA cross off because of the injury concerns or because nobody’s on him you should like bet him uh well nobody on which means his odds are long that’s what it means yeah yeah I don’t think they’re long enough necessarily okay however that’s when I model things out if I were a more subjective better and just a feel based you know had a f-based process looked in saw the irons be pretty good long term until the Wells Fargo when they took a step back sure I think the biggest concern for me not not just the putting but his distance isn’t great yeah and that’s a little bit of hey Will zat Taurus is one of the best golers on the planet when healthy because he nukes it and hits his irons well and then in spite of not being a great putter if the putting’s iffy the distance isn’t there I think it’s too many things for me yeah to want to get to are you thinking more an outright because he’s 80 to one or top 10 top 20 because every Vol I don’t want safety it’s in the volatility I I don’t think well a top 10 is not safety you’re right um yeah I think the distance point is good because that’s the one thing he has not gotten back post injury post back injury and when you add in the withdrawal I think he’s he was worth like discussing but I agree probably not long enough to draw Us in but let’s talk about Scotty Sheffer and Roy maroy you talked about them as being guys and Xander shaay too with good PGA Championship history so the top of the board has done well in this event had they done well enough to bet them let’s talk Scotty and Rory first and then thoughts on Xander at 14 uh so again this is the difference of like modeling things or the feel based with Sheffer it’s easier my model has him pretty close to to a fair value at 4 to1 I’m not quite there however that process has uh failed me in four of his last five starts I’m not recommending betting someone because of Victories and not wanting to miss out that’s not what this is it’s for the past four or five events he’s been in I said I’m almost there but not quite and I get it if you want to roster or you want to bet someone rather who has four wins in his last five starts you were going to have to pay bit of a premium even with that factored in he’s really not that like it’s still in consideration for me yeah as for Rory it’s a little bit harder for me I think the odds are noticeably shorter than they should be in part because of the win last week in part because he won here 10 years ago I want to root for Rory I will root for him I just can’t get there myself now Xander is really appealing I talked about him a lot uncovering the spread I’m going to talk about him in the DFS section also going to talk about him still in the upcoming bet section but you can’t point to a single thing about him and dislike it other than the fact that he is not converted wins everything looks in Xander’s favor and for people who don’t necessarily know he’s been adding distance adding ball you know ball speed Club head speed Things Are improving for him in that front and I talked about that 200 plus range he is in a tier of his own in terms of Strokes gained uh per shot from that range over the last year I’ve been on Xander a long time uh this is not necessarily a week where I where I want to move away from that I agree I I already bet him we’ll talk about why uh in the betting section later on but first let’s talk about current form golfers who are entering this event with noteworthy form either one way or another so Brandon when you look at the data who stands out uh entering this week’s event so I like to look at the last three months um and the true Strokes gain numbers from data golf which does account for field strength so it helps a ton um and then typically I look at golfers with salaries of 10,000 or lower on FanDuel to get us a feel for who Maybe Might fly under the radar but then also sort of translates into the betting Market but before I do that I just want to shout out Scotty sheffler who in this span is at a 3.93 and Xander schofl is second at a 2.87 with nobody else above a 2.56 which is Hideki Matsuyama so to clarify Scotty’s a shot better per round than anybody else over the last three months that’s how good he’s been that’s why he’s four to one I get it um that’s awesome but for golfers who do fit my typical criteria I’m going to start with walking Neeman right at 10,000 on FanDuel he is at a 2.21 true Strokes gain per round in this span that is a top five number in this sample we know that he is long off the tea we know he’s a good iron player if not a great iron player he’s got a win in five top 10 in his last six starts on the live tour and the Asia tour combined was t22 at the Masters with subpar putting very appealing 35 to1 as well I think we’ll probably talk about him in the betting section if I’m not mistaken so it’s the past three months which I believe if my math is correct that lops off his win at myoba on the live tour and also lobs off his win at the Australian Open on the DP World Tour so you’re not even cherry picking his best sample and he’s still very very good in that span uh he has yeah he had the win at Jetta yeah but like it it’s that span cuts off his my his two of his other wins he’s a free yeah I love I love Neeman yeah it’s it’s really appealing um yeah I think he kind of I don’t say burned a lot of people but he was getting a lot of hype leading into the Masters and you know I’m back mayy though I don’t care uh sometimes I’ll get annoyed when I get burned but not this week will I never noticed yeah I know right I just like I just like running back the exact same betting card from the masters with Neeman and with Xander what could go wrong that went so well why not run it back again it is it is um it is a bit peculiar especially when you’re recommending things like week in week out where it’s like Russell Henley Xander sah like the same guys week in but it’s the process over the past year plus with all the adjustments factored in oh surprise surprised those golfers are going to stay toward the top of like my model they’re good golfers and they keep doing well sorry so no no I I but like I’m there with you but uh one name that we have not had exposure to uh is Sebastian Soderberg whose salary is 7700 he’s at a 1.81 true Strokes gain per round over the last three months on the DP World Tour uh t21 T2 solo second and T3 for him neutral distance no real shotlink data in that span uh you know very minimal I should say uh but great iron play back in January and February if you go to the last 50 rounds for golfers um on data golf’s true stro query he’s 18th in approach big question marks elsewhere however we don’t know if he’s ironing those things out like without the shot link I’m probably not going to get there but this is why we do this section I think he you know maybe that maybe that does something for you I don’t know but probably not enough for me with other golfers in the 8,000 range who I would trust more including Alex Doran who I know not the same salary 8,900 but like him you know pretty often he’s a 1.7 in this span he’s got seven straight top 25s on the PGA tour with great T to gree numbers sort of neutral to poor distance don’t want to overwrite that um but still great long-term golfer Tio Hatton 9,800 he’s at a 1.65 in this span T9 at the Masters fourth 15th and fifth in his last three Liv starts Russell Henley talked about him already gon to talk about him more 10th at Wells Fargo again of course that plays pretty similar to this one this week T12 at Heritage uh fourth at Valero and then in between that t38 at the Masters no he’s short off the te but solid enough result at the Masters top 10 last week at a similar course I seeu Kim another shorter hitter 9300 but good form overall three straight top 20s and uh his last Miss cut came back in October T30 at Augusta another long course uh with you know quick bent greens just throwing that out there uh OE oxe batia 9,000 uh 42 or sorry 42nd at Wells Fargo after winning the Valero was t-35 at the Masters as well and T 18 at the RBC Heritage and then just ring off the bottom three here on the list these are all the golfers with a 1.4 or better uh true Strokes gain per round uh average over the last few months Danny McCarthy another short hitter but can Spike because of the putter sah tagala who I’ll talk about more H later another Spike we guy and then Harris English who kind of his distance is better than probably perception the the the putting is pretty good the irons are just really up and down but his Sal is only 8,500 this week so again a lot of lot of value options this week does anyone on that list jump out to you that you want to talk about more I want to ask you about Hatton because we obviously have not seen him for a bit because he is on the live tour now I did see that the Masters as you mentioned uh finished in the side the top 10 there and Hatton like if you look at the overall numbers does not have distance but he can have distance when I I think when he wants to because at the Masters he did gain distance on the field there and he’s done that in some other events as well so I find him pretty interesting the one problem I run into with Hatton is that he’s in a really loaded tier he’s 9800 on FanDuel for this week and as we typically have for a a major championship that’s a good range walking nean is at 10,000 Justin Thomas a little bit of a HomeTown narrative or homish town narrative at 98 uh same as Hatton and then Tony feno the putting’s bad but as we talked about other stuff getting better for him Shane Lowry here is here SCS here I don’t hate Sam Burns banan is 94 as well so loaded range however have you in had a 98 pretty interesting he’s got two straight uh top 15s at PGA championships as well uh five total top 25s just two missed Cuts over just ballparking at like eight or nine starts um at the PGA Championship don’t hate it and speaking of hate I mean he hates austo he makes makes that known and played well um I I think that was the site of uh the Muppet video where um he was like in the clubhouse and um Ian polter was like we play like a bunch of Muppets today and they were like 13 over at the table and haton was one of them I think that was at Augusta so he’s away from the Muppet venues I think we’re good non Muppet narrative bump for T Hatton week all right you want play a quick game uh yeah Hatton or nean oh neon by a mile haton or Matt Fitzpatrick um let me look never mind never mind then if you have to look them all up then it’s not worth it well just a second um we talking like at salary betting odds or in general we well you you mentioned like the 9,000 range I figured over my guy Fitz uh Hatton or spe Hatton Hatton or JT JT yeah do you agree with all those or no I think so okay I might go Fitz but that’s just I’m a Fitz nerd like as well so as you should be go- cats okay weather for this weekend the worst wins will be Friday afternoon but even those will be pretty calm at 8 Miles hour but there’s a chance to rain the entire day Friday so it’s uncertain which wave will benefit because I don’t really know there could be an advantage but who can say who will benefit I can’t that’s for sure so you could consider like wave stacking but I don’t know which one will benefit because it’s tough to predict when there will be delays and it looks like thunderstorms so there probably will be delays on Friday so I don’t know who’ll benefit you can wave stack if you want but I know it’s not the best advice but it is what it is and then pretty calm with a Chance R over the weekend so not massive considerations for weather for this week let’s take a look at the betting outs over at FanDuel Sports booking outline where you see value for this week from an outright perspective first Brandon beginning there what are your favorite bets for this week over at FanDuel Sportsbook I like Xander schofl at 14 to1 to win the 2024 PGA Championship I’m in I think a lot points to Xander um I know he doesn’t win as Etc I don’t believe in that I think a lot is pointing to again this this is far away from like quote unquote guaranteeing it’s like oh no he’s due this is going to happen but here are all of the reasons that Xander makes sense first of all he’s a phenomenal golfer and I mentioned this already but over the last three months only Scotty Sheffer is better than Xander and Frank over the last 50 rounds he’s second to Sheffer 12 months he’s behind just Rory and sheffler he deserves a lot of attention and there’s much more I mentioned that I want approach play from 200 plus yards Xander is the guy from that range over the last year by a pretty big margin um like three shots like three Strokes gain per shot over a large sample than anyone else which is pretty wild among golfers with like relevant like enough of a sample there to be considered um mentioned that he’s gaining speed gaining distance love to see that and you know I like to look at putting regression Xander schofl from within 15 feet 89th percentile on tour this season in terms of those more makeable putts love to see that but 10th percentile outside 15 feet which you can say it’s because he can’t lag putt or you can say it’s because he hasn’t really had anything fall in despite being a great putter that’s the one I’m going to go with because that’s usually how this works so my model shows value on Xander I understand it if you’re not quite there I don’t know how you look at his profile though and say like you don’t like him I understand saying don’t necessarily like him to win but there is uh you know the finishing position markets he’s plus 140 to finish the top 10 under that no laying up specials tab there and you can also go with Xander without Scotty sheffler at 11 to one so I like him a lot I don’t have anything I don’t think you can really say anything bad about him yeah I’m there as well as Ander so let’s just talk about that right now as well and we had this discussion a bit uncovering this spread this morning but I think that that club speed discussion is pertinent because I think that previous criticism of Xander for not winning was valid because he wasn’t generating Spike weeks and if you want to beat a field like this you need to gain you know five Strokes on the field per round basically in order to win an event like this and Xander doesn’t do that a whole lot like he’s consistently in that two to three range but you don’t see a lot of fives Ledger but you do get more of those recently and I think that’s enticing and I’m curious like let’s say hypothetically Xander does what he did Thursday Friday on Saturday Sunday instead like he does he plays the way he played this weekend on Thursday Friday and then Goes Bananas over the weekend is he 12 to one where where does he settle in for the betting markets if that happens like if we flip his four rounds this past weekend yeah but still didn’t win probably 12 yeah like I think he’s shorter than what he is I think so yeah yeah so like gaining distance off the te which increases his volatility in a good way he can have Spike weeks elsewhere which we’ve seen like it wasn’t he wasn’t generating Spike weeks off the te he was generating them with approach and putting but now he can do so off the T too like last week he G point or 1.66 Strokes per round off the T per day to golf that’s pretty sick so I I am in this week I know I’ve like gotten frustrated with him but I don’t think that is enough to justify me forsaking what I think it’s legitimate value at 14 to1 so like yeah I think the criticisms previously were decently Fair because he was like not volatile enough but that volatility has increased and I think that that gives him the upside we want in a field like this so I’m in at Xander at 14 to1 this week good I’m glad but if Xander doesn’t do it for you you can go with pretty much the guy who is the antithesis of Xander where the data doesn’t make sense but he wins all the time in these big events and that’s Brooks kka who is now 16 to1 he was 14 to1 earlier on Tuesday look again all of like the the modeling the math sustainability love Xander Brooks kka is he’s been hard to model forever because of the way that he plays in majors and it’s not even that he it’s not just that oh he plays better he basically says he plays a different game in Majors he doesn’t pin seek he just tries to hit the green make par when he needs to and doesn’t over complicate it so like weirdly that safer play increases his volatility when it comes to Majors because he’s not really making mistakes so he’s like more volatile by being more consistent like I know it doesn’t make sense what I’m saying but it does make sense as well so uh I’m gonna stick with it but he’s got three PGA championships already one last year he came in off of a solo third and a fifth on the Liv tour this year he’s coming in uh off of a win and a T9 so we don’t have a ton to go off of when it comes to live tour other than really driving distance that’s about it but it’s still good for Brooks and when it comes to Majors I don’t look I talk about my model all of the data Etc if Brooks is like healthy and playing good golf it’s really not a bad bet like you’re going to regret making if you want to like if you’re almost there so for me Brook’s at 16 to1 especially now that he’s longer um he doesn’t he doesn’t necessarily appear as a value in my model because it’s so difficult to account for him unless you just change his projections his data and I don’t do that um so this one’s more of a subjective situation however I could still fully support it with again the good finishes the distance being there and of course it’s also just kind of hard to over complicate Brooks at a major yeah I I love models and numbers as much as you do but I think that it’s important to recognize the spots where they may struggle and they struggle with a guy who literally says he’s a different mindset like he has said this this is not conjecture it’s him saying I don’t care as much like in a non major event which like why would he uh so I I get it so I think that backing Brook 16 to1 like you said probably not going to regret that I think that’s a fair way to VI things for sure for me the non Xander outright that I like for this week is going to be on Walkin Neeman I was on him for the Masters and the Finish was not there for Neeman at the Masters but he did play pretty well in that event basically just lost some Strokes in the greens and I feel like we can buy back in once again I haven’t seen a lot of reason to jump off of Neeman finish third and seventh in the two live events since Augusta the distance for nean has always been good but it’s been especially good since basically January 1st uh he should play pretty well at Valhalla considering the distance considering how good the irons are now the one downside for Neeman is the track record in Majors is not great but again I think he’s more volatile in the positive sense golfer now than he was in previous years so we haven’t seen neeman’s upside in a major in his current form just yet but I think we saw glimpses of it at Augusta given how good the ball striking was there so when Neeman is down at 35 to1 I think there is betting value there so I like Neeman a lot at 35 to1 willing to bet him for this week Brandon you talked about Neiman as well on covering the spread this morning what put you on Neeman as a consideration at 35 to one uh pretty much everything you said uh he’s got distance he he was always one of the best ball Strikers on tour um whenever he was like racking up rounds and rounds and rounds and that’s why we always liked him for for DFS for betting uh and it’s still kind of there but we’re also getting a good number on him because people were kind of saying sort of at least hopefully like kind of joking that he was the best golfer in the world leading into the Masters Etc not really hearing much I don’t think were were joking that that might have been serious from them um but it’s a good number you’re not really hearing that hype and the case isn’t really any different so it goes back to that like oh we liked him for the Masters what changed like a month that’s about it like it’s still it’s still the same process uh it’s a it’s a somewhat similar course where you need distance good irons putting um so it’ be I would be more worried if we didn’t like Neiman again but nothing changed like nothing’s changed with him really so I’m still there as well I like that okay so outrights this week Brandon likes Xander chafl 14 to1 Brooks kka 16 Alexander sha also at 14 to1 and then Walkin Neeman at 35 what about non outrights where do you see value there this week Brandon yeah it’s a major and I I love a good long shot as much as anyone but this one especially feels loaded it feels like one of the Sharks is going to go out and and get it so I don’t want to get too far down the odds board when it comes to the outrights uh another live name though that I think makes sense Bryson Des Shambo to finish top 10 uh was plus 260 earlier it’s now plus 270 I’m fine with that the length is there we know that for Bryson it’s like the one constant for him and the live form is still good enough to want to buy in he’s another golfer really all the live guys which is not super surprising like all the live guys are hard to sort of model out at this point we just don’t have a lot of data um but if you dig back to his past two finishes you’ll just see a t 27 and a t26 but he played pretty well um in those in terms of scoring setups relatively easy but five good rounds there uh among the two but before that uh four top 10s leading into the Masters when he finished T6 nuked the ball off the T still great approach play and if you want to go with like the course comp Quail Hollow narrative he played that course pretty well was t-33 in the PGA Championship in 2017 there uh had a top 10 uh in 2021 and a top five in 2018 at a similar course so I think Bryson makes a lot of sense my final one here is going to be sah theala to finish top 20 at plus 220 uh he is one of those golfers who is long off the te but he’s a 90th percentile approach player from 200 plus yards over the last calendar year in terms of Strokes gain per shot you want to talk Spike weeks you know maybe it’s a little bit I don’t want to say even cautious with a top 20 but a top 10 is that’s still that’s a lot of upside that’s one or two shots away from top 20 top 10 those types of things it’s gonna I think it’s going to be a really crowded leaderboard but I have value on Sith outright as well he did shorten from 75 to 7 still see a little bit there but in terms of what I’m recommending here I see value on him to finish top 20 still at plus 220 okay so sath top 20 plus 220 and Bryson dambo top 10 plus 270 to clarify those are in the finishing position markets of FanDuel Sportsbook they do have a market where you can bet where there are no uh dead Heats so you can bet the top X finish including ties Market if you want that personal preference is to deal with dead Heats if they land up exact on that number and I have to pay out a dead or get a a smaller payout because dead Heats so be it I think that’s a worthwhile Endeavor so I’m glad they’re offering it it’s good to have choices but personally gonna go with the ones where your payout could be reduced because of a dead heat so let’s talk my one Indulgence bet of the week Brandon um that’s on Windam Clark to finish inside the top 10 now I know I was on Clark last week did not go great uh held out hope for that first round where he was making birdies making double Bogies going full Bizarro stuff but he’s plus 360 and if you look at the overall numbers for Windom there I know the irons weren’t super super sharp early on but it was mostly because the short game was off for Windam in that event the irons and the driver were still fine he has a distance to do well at this course um he has three top fives in Signature Events this year not counting the win of Pebble Beach he was third at the Tour Championship he put it pretty poorly his debut at Augusta at MIT theut and it was his debut at Augusta so pretty willing to overlook that his implied outs for a top 10 are 21.7% I think I should do it so I’m gonna go with the Windam Clark top 10 he’s not 80 so I can’t bet him out right like again I I violated the role last week should not have done that but we’ll go with the top 10 plus 360 here mentioned before I talked myself into a Russell Henley top 10 we’re doing it baby that is seven plus 750 at FanDuel Sportsbook for this week and the for Henley is a negative but as you mentioned when we were in that section the distance is bad for him everywhere and yet he still puts up really good finishes in tough Fields 10th at the Wells Fargo and elevated event uh this or designated event this past week 12th at the RBC Heritage another designated event there he was fourth of the V not designated but like uh fourth at the arold Palmer uh fourth of the Sony Open in Hawaii he puts up good finishes in tough fields and we’ve seen that in Majors too in events where distance mattered uh like at Lac last year in the US Open he finished 14th there didn’t lose a ton off the te in terms of distance when he really needed to have some gy up and then was also fourth at Augusta last year so I know it’s a negative to have his distance but you know it’s it’s plus 750 for a top 10 I’m will to go there for Russell Henley for this week given how good the non off the tea parts of his game are so I’ll thank Henley for a top 10 plus 750 the one where I will kind of shy away from being aggressive and not go towards the top 10 instead go towards the top 20 is Lucas Glover that seems like a a step too far even for me to go Glover inside the top 10 so we’ll instead go with Lucas Glover to finish inside the top 20 which I’m still scrolling over at FanDuel sports book still scrolling is it still plus 600 yeah still six to one which is 14.3% applied for Glover for a top 20 um he’s at a top 20 in four of his past 10 Majors that does include a a dead heat 20th at the master so you know taking that count too H but Augusta values distance his irons are fully dialed in right now so I will go Glover for a top 20 at six to1 at fuel sports book so non out R for me are going to be Henley top 10 plus 750 Glover top 20 at 6 to1 and Windam Clark top 10 plus 360 Brandon thoughts for you I don’t want to ask you about Windam I don’t want to hear your thoughts there but thoughts for you on Henley uh top 10 and Glover top 20 well I I talked about Henley I like him for DFS a lot um I do see value on him uh at plus 750 for the top 10 I’m a little more when it comes to the finishing positions I kind of look first if there’s value on the top 20 if there is I’m okay going that route he’s plus 280 I think that definitely checks out as well uh but Glover I think is a good call he is a name I considered for the covering the spread uh show but I went with Patrick Rogers who was plus 650 to top 20 he’s now plus 550 I had him around he was 18 to one for a top 10 and he shortened to 14 and I was Crest Fallen before the show so I didn’t really come up with uh many long shot like quote unquote long shot finishing positions but Glover was in that consideration set for me because of look anytime you get a really really great ta green player and you go to a tough setup like this I think you can make that case but my model shows some value there too so um Glover 6 to1 to top 20 I think is is a great call alrighty let’s Boogie then advance to the DFS section for this week and talk about our building blocks over on fanduel.com from a DFS perspective for the PGA Championship Brandon let’s start things off with you who are your core plays on FanDuel DFS for this week hesitating now why because I don’t really Envision building if I build one lineup it’s got to have Scotty sheffler in it so I think by default he has to be a l 132 yeah you can do it yeah you can do it especially if you go down to like walking Neeman as your second golfer okay you’re gonna have one golfer shorter than 35 to1 to win this week in a DFS lineup I want to get about 18% of the win Equity though from one guy I’m saying you can use him but like if I have you play Zander and Rory Accord and according to my numbers get less than 14% of the wins or you can roster Scotty and get over 18% but Xander’s 75% wins what do you mean what are you talking about here okay okay you’re gonna math what’s wrong with your math I’m gonna all right I’m Gonna Leave Scotty as I like because it does put a lot of constraints on you yeah so my first love will be Xander chafl okay um I wanted to talk through it though it’s I don’t want us to like gloss over how great a Play Scotty Sheffer is just because he’s a little bit hard to roster I think it’s an easy mistake to make and there are no guarantees in golf or anything like that but 18% win Equity come on like that that’s ridiculous but Xander has a great play style for every course he he teas it up at especially Majors he’s been top 20 in four of his last five PGA championships you don’t need him to win which is probably great news for for some people um I think that he’s got a probably a better case now than ever before with everything trending in that direction if not for Scotty sheffler like being there but U he’s the actually the only golfer in the field to be top 20 in all four strokes gain categories over the last 50 rounds according to data golf I love that Xander I will start my lineups with him and feel good I would love to get to Sheffer but um Xander much more of a realistic starting point for me uh walk Neiman at 10,000 is Another Love of Mine great salary for his profile I know we both like him at 35 to one you named him specifically as someone that you like that you want to bet at that number and I think the shine is wearing off a little bit uh again he was really hyped up entering the Masters not hearing that quite so much um because you know four weeks is is a long time for and then people you know start looking at other places but he’s got plus distance he’s third in that stat over the last 50 rounds great overall ball Striker form is more than good enough for a $10,000 salary so I like that a lot uh third and final love for me will be sah theala at 9500 he is 3 second in approach play over the last 50 rounds 36th in distance so the ball striking checks out he’s ninth and putting over the last 50 with 75th percentile putting splits from within 15t on tour this season that’s basically the checklist this week distance good irons great putter Spike week potential it might not work out but it also could be there and it’s all accounted for in a salary of 9500 yeah I think all those guys are firm considerations uh for me and I like all them so the the the lovees for you Xander chafl at 114 walk Neeman at 10,000 sah the gala at $9,500 I think that if I am saying to you right now like who is the one guy you are locking into your lineup I kind of think it’s actually Neeman for me like I think Neeman might be the first guy I put into a lineup at 10,000 is that outrageous to to prioritize him over others I don’t think it’s outrageous he does stand out you know I’m not going to play the game because it put you under a lot of pressure last time no do it let’s do it come on fire me here we go [Music] um we’ll go up to we’ll go up to Victor hin at 106 nean at like we’ll do at salary for DFS go nean Bryson to Shambo Neeman yes Hadi Neeman at 104 he’s in good form I will shout that out but he just went because he was sick therefore and he burned not me it’s some DFS players therefore he is dead to us uh Cameron young at 103 NE Tommy Fleetwood at 102 I like Fleetwood but I like Neeman more and will alator at 101 Neeman yeah I’m with you yeah so Neiman to me is the number one guy it’s the distance it’s the salary the salary is really low at 10,000 which helps a lot um so I think this is a great spot to go to Neeman if I had pick between betting him outright or playing him in DFS now he’s 35 I might actually prefer him in DFS I like him in both but I I think he’s slightly better DFS play but I like both my other love at the top is Rory Mary um this is part of why I was willing to push back on Scotty bet at 132 is because Rory is come on he’s $1,100 lower salar absolutely bombs it off the te which I love he’s played this course and won at it which doesn’t you know move the needle a ton but it definitely does not hurt and you’re getting the irons you’re getting killer Rory right now I think there’s enough here so I can say with a decent amount of confidence that my head-to-head against you is probably gonna have Rory maroy in it at 121 it’s gonna have Neiman for sure but I think it’s gonna maoy 121 now we know you’re on Scotty uh but what is your view of Rory in DFS specifically a 121 I like Rory I’m not saying he’s a bad play and yes I understand that $1100 is a lot but it doesn’t actually reflect the Gap to me between the two right got smaller I agree yeah Sheffer is like 10 percentage points more likely to win over the last 50 rounds that’s like your opinion is it did Scotty win last week over the last 50 rounds Scotty has a 1.14 Strokes gain per round advantage over Rory I like Rory I am fine with Rory but I would rather find $1,100 for the rest of my lineup to get so much more win Equity so much more long-term success have you consider the narrative Z Brandon come on go tough to do an a Rory chaet Neeman build but I will dink around with it for sure I think it’s it’s worth looking into I initially at Bryson as a love I’m gonna downgrade him to a like uh so okay I think that that’s that’s what I’ll do there I’m gonna wind up having four likes then but whatever I think that’s uh that’s the way it breaks down so my like loves this week are Neeman and Rory uh your loves are sah Neeman and Xander Xander should probably be a love for me the more I think about it he’s not even a like for you what are you doing I don’t know I thought I I don’t know I did this yesterday afternoon I’ve had thoughts since then I don’t know man let me be who are your lik what what probability well I’m it’s it’s Scotty sheffler I laid out a case for him already in terms of like how much better he is than everyone else what’s the probability for you if you’re opening up what percentage of your lineups are you going to have Scotty in 40 okay I can live with it like he’s 18% to win there are scenarios in which he wins but does not or you know does not win but pays off for DFS so I think like sorry what are his top three odds in your can you pull that quick or no no okay um we need Podium betting in golf this is terrible um what so what if he finishes fourth it doesn’t matter if he finishes fourth he’s probably not worth his salary so like that’s egregious that’s a bad take I disagree that’s a bad I disagree like I do that a lot for like this might be stupid might be exposing myself but iuse I use like that as a guideline for like NASCAR stuff like okay what of this guy’s top 10 odds I will use that as like a Guiding Light for like how heavily can roster him in DFS like I think that using finishing position odds is a fair way to gauge like especially when the salary is 132 you’re yes all I’m gonna say is it’d be one thing if he were like 10% likely to win four to that’s why I’m saying 40% rostered though is because like you know yeah he’s like a borderline like for you it feels like and he’s a borderline love for me and I almost feel goofy not having him as a love because of how good he is we don’t have to argue about it anymore I just circling his salary what’s the win Equity difference between someone at like 94 and 83 not not 10 percentage points tell you that much what’s when difference between uh Xander chafl and this one in this one hypers specific instance sure but there’s more to a lineup than just that I’m going to move on because we’ll spend all day going back and forth I think Sheffer should be like a 70% play maybe like 65 because of how good he is I think it’s really easy to overestimate how much we can predict the non sheffler golfers and the win Equity Gap is pretty massive I’m just I’m just going to leave it at that I also like dambo at 10,500 long off the te we know that talked about him already for a top 10 uh you know I frankly would not be surprised if he just gets off to a good start uh and just you know keeps the the pedal down Jim’s building a lineup out here so a Bryson Neeman Sheffer lineup has 8767 left for you that’s a little bit less than the Rory uh Xander nean but I feel like it’s a big downgrade to go from um Xander to to dambo so I don’t I don’t know I don’t know Chef is but mathematically mathematically it is a bigger drop from Sheffer to Rory than you’re giving credit just in pure win Equity though yeah only one golfer can win they can’t it’s you’re not picking six guys and you have to find the winner what sorry you it’s not it’s not binary does this guy win or not if Sheffer finishes third it’s a great result if he finish that’s why I asked you what your Podium ODS were for him if Podium ODS existed or Podium bets existed get on your thing golf give out podiums come on I’m gonna continue because you’re just gonna aggravate me I like Russell Henley as well his salary is 8,700 kind of helps get to one Scotty ma oh yeah don’t you like Russell Henley as well yes he’s short off the te uh loses about eight eight and a half yards uh per drive on the world average golfer he’s 131st in distance over the last 50 rounds in this field but we talked about it with that T10 at a longer setup last week t38 the Masters uh he can play longer courses and he this is just his game it’s not like this is all of a it’s not a new thing where he he’s at a distance disadvantage and he’s a Plus on those approaches from 200 plus yards out my final like Tom hogi 8,300 we want Iron play boy he’s got it uh he is just below average in distance he’s 106th in this field particularly over the last uh 50 rounds but get this 94th percentile over the last calendar year on approaches from 200 plus and 87th percentile from 150 to 200 talked about if you’re not super long I want the those long irons he’s got them he’s a great putter uh you know the splits are still a positive 58th percentile from within 15 feet this season and four for four in made cuts at PGA championships despite the lack of distance because it’s not a new thing like you said with friend so Tom hogi at 83 makes a lot of sense I won’t get there personally but I cannot push back on it uh too much at all uh I had I don’t know I’m fure what let’s hear the excuses I’m try to figure out where to put Bryson because I like the distance a lot I like the salary at 105 and it’s a nice discount but like the more I think about it the more I should probably have Xander above him at 114 so it sounds like you really just want to build a Rory Xander start I want to build a Rory you like nean so much Rory Xander Neiman all right so you get 88 33 if you do that yeah although I’m going to move Xander down because I know it annoys you do not have the salaries in order so we’re going to put him here put Rory here put nean there okay we can put Henley my guy Dean burmester he’s he’s alike 85 and then a I want to get back up to Ben on that’s tragic all right well I’ve got some things to deal with at some point here but I can make it work uh but I think I need to put Xander here the distance is nice upside is nice I’m getting a lot of win Equity at 114 so I think when it all comes down to it Xander shof will be a likee For Me Above dambo but all have lineups where D Shambo in there instead just to kind of save because you [Music] know yeah I think I think at a certain point I need to say some salary so I need to isolate that audio i’ rather not um the guys I feel bugging a soundboard and every time you start arguing with me I just replicate it then Bud let’s get a soundboard for you I’m trying to do this three 3v3 didn’t take the bait which is upsetting anyway my official like is Ban huntan I I like him a lot at 9400 this week because Ben on is secretly kind of a bomber right now as far as distance goes his irons are really really good too we know the issues with the putter but he doesn’t always lose as he showed last week and pretty sure he led the field in putting last week which is absurd but also I think kind of maybe true question mark can you can can facts be kind of true anyway uh an was 16th at the Masters he sh he can do well in Major Field so 9400 to me very fair salary for buun on another guy we liked or at least just go ahead you had a question no no good good raise raise your hand first that’s your question go ahead no continue I had a 3v3 for you okay other guy we discussed was it last week we talked Adam Scott yeah I talk Adam Scott all the time honestly anyway he’s 91 this week he’s got distance he can have Spike weeks with the irons and the putter doesn’t have a great track record recently in Majors but he hasn’t been like bad either irons seem better now than they were entering those most recent Majors too so for 91 I think Scott makes a lot of sense and I mentioned Dean burmester before he is my final like at $88,500 playing the live tour right now but has a lot a distance which again we definitely want that for this week burmester won LIV Miami he was third in Australia at Adelaide uh he made the cut the PGA last year 11th at the open the year before that so at least some semblance of a track record in Majors he’s very risky because the data on him is limited and he doesn’t have the same like long-term track record as a Brooks kekka Bryson D Shambo even walking Neeman but for 85 I think he does make plenty of sense so my likes are Dean bermas Adam Scott bi hunt on and Xander chafl SL Bryson D Shambo we’ll figure that one out okay what’s your 3v3 so it’s really a 2v2 but to make it to give it proper context I’m gonna throw Neiman in here okay uh you said you like Tommy Fleetwood right enough Scotty Sheffer Tommy Fleetwood uhhuh and walk Neiman get you 8867 left per golfer Rory Xander and Neeman get you 8833 I’m taking Rory Xander nean really yeah I want that juice man you’re I want two juices not just one juice you want you want two half juices instead of one full juice how is Rory a half juice he’s plus 750 to Like You can disagree with the betting odds but like the betting odds there for a reason like you keep saying double the win Equity plots plus 750 are oh gosh my calculator’s working slow 11 yeah eight and four to one is is 20% that’s not double bro it’s close but it’s not double so I’m just saying and Xander again is 75% to win so like I’d rather get him yeah you keep falling back to that but it’s true and the the hardest part is I like all three and I like Brooks um do you like Brook so what percentage we have of Rory 10 lineups how many is Rory in if you say zero quitting not now you’re gonna say so I quit rude stupid proba probably two because I’m that much higher on Scotty and I think that it’s worth it getting there okay yeah can we make a both uh Scotty plus Rory is aggressive 8675 I don’t think I can do that but um you’d need you’d need hogy consider like Soderberg uh Patrick Rogers at like 75 or 70 what’s he 76 76 uh Eric Van royan is 78 I could do that I mean you you realistically need like two guys below 80s 85 and then you can make it work it’s noty or no uh I I’m not quite there anymore with him I just don’t see it enough like I used to despite a fourth at the prestigious Myrtle Beach Classic this past week it’s it’s definitely not bad um I although I know we’re I know it’s long but it’s a major here and I think it’s worth discussing and frankly the DFS discussion this week is really fascinating because of the win Equity among the top three would you consider like the way that I get more Rory is if I go sheffler Rory or like Sheffer Xander and then cycle through like those values and just say I believe so much in Scotty and Rory and orander that I think they’re going to finish like well I know for you if they don’t finish first then they’re useless up there Sal I said top three at 132 it’s not about the other guys it’s about him specifically because he has a very high salary and salary matters would you consider having your core actually just be like Scotty and Rory and then kind of justy like almost locking them in more or less and cycling through and just saying like not those two in the same lineup but like so then we’re not on the same page then oh so you’re saying like like have those two locked into every single lineup like in this thought experiment like if you go Scotty Rory and you’re like okay you named like four or five names in the 85 or lower range and you’re like I’m just going to cycle through and hope to get the right combo there without over because then you’re not like well I need some ROM or I need some Brooks or whatever I I think we should be more acceptive to that approach in general probably I probably do that this week but I think like in general it’s a fine approach like you know because like your mindset playing DFS is I have to be okay losing this entry fee and like should probably be okay losing all your entry fees so like why not just shoot for the upside and hope that you you know hope that you’re right in like that assumption yeah and I mean it also we should clarify this is like a more of a tournament approach of trying to hit the right core uh if you’re playing a double up or head-to-head are you more likely to get the shler or no well more likely yes okay but I I think that I’m going to be on on Rory there like he’s a better play in a had to head her double up then he is in a tournament but I’m still probably gonna use Rory there regardless I gotcha okay uh okay so to recap oh we already did the recap okay win picks for this week I’m still in the top 10 in this tab you dummy okay win picks for the PGA Championship I’ll let you go first I’m sticking with my guys iander Brooks I I like a long shot it really feels like I mean it really feels like Scotty again but if not Scotty I think it’s going to take a fully complete game to take down either Scotty or if Rory’s really locked in or Brooks Xander I think it’s going to be one of the the favorites this week honestly okay so you got Xander chafl at 14 to1 and Brooks kka at 16 to1 I I’m going to take the golfers who are ranked counting fifth and sixth than data golf’s true Strokes gained the past six months those guys are walking Neeman that one’s no surprise based on what we discussed 35 to one number six is John Ram the exact same approach I had at the Masters I’m pretty sure the exact same win picks I had as well for the Masters but thought process again is ROM’s odds are long because he hasn’t been discussed very much but he’s still playing good golf that six month number includes only his Live Events and the Masters and the Masters he finished 45th in large part due to bad putting but the approach play was good he’s had consistently good finishes in the live tour good distances well and he’s still John ROM so I think it’s 16 to one that’s a good spot to buy in so my win picks John ROM 16 and walking Neeman at 35 no issues with the logic there are every time we do a major there are names we have to just gloss over even though we ran long like longer than typical it’s a really fun intriguing event and we had to argue we don’t argue enough anymore I know we we to fly through things but you know sometimes we got to get an old school make Brandon mad um heat check argument yeah any final thoughts for you before we close up shop for today thoughts I just gotta wait till we’re off there no no uh pretty typical post like end of major pod um there are going to be some names that we don’t dig into and you might like you’re probably in a Major Field pretty validated with liking a lot of these names uh but I think that there are a few core plays with Scotty Xander and as much as I prefer those two in DFS to Rory due to the salary either being higher or lower I I do love Rory um all the same so it’s just one of those weeks and uh I think Xander Lim think he tops 10 at least gu Lim for the plus 140 bet good job man that was the bait and switch because he top 10’s everything yeah it would be bad for me to win pick if he won but I want money actual money so I’m hoping he does win uh personally that is all that we have here for today on the heat cheack but as mentioned we are here every single Tuesday breaking down that week’s PGA Tour event we don’t always argue this much but maybe should you know just uh maybe maybe but come back for us each and every single week by subscribing to the FanDuel research podcast feed wherever you get your podcast you can of course find the show as well over on uh FanDuel TV Plus Brandon if people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there I’m on Twitter at gdula 13 gd13 and I am on Twitter at Jim SAA so you can also find fandor research on Twitter at fandor research want to thank you all for tuning in for today good luck to you with your bet and DFS lineups enjoy the golf we’ll talk to you all once again next week this has been the heat check right here on the FanDuel podcast Network [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] n [Music] [Music]