The First Cut from 2024 PGA Championship – LIVE at Valhalla | The First Cut Podcast

Rick Gehman and Kyle Porter join Joe Musso live from Valhalla and the 2024 PGA Championship for a final preview of the year’s second major.

(0:00) Intro + a challenging course & Tiger Woods
(9:55) A Three Headed Monster – Rory, Scottie, Brooks
(21:25) Historical Implications in play this week
(33:02) Picks – Winner & Sleeper
(36:40) How many guys can win this week?

#golf #pgatour #golfoncbs #firstcutpodcast #pgachampionship #valhalla #rorymcilroy #GolfDFS #golfpicks #dailyfantasysports #PGADFS

—
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS CHANNEL: https://youtube.com/FirstCutPodcast

Get your First Cut merch here: https://paramountshop.com/collections/the-first-cut-golf

AUDIO

‘First Cut’ is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts.

You can listen to First Cut on your smart speakers! Simply say “Alexa, play the latest episode of The First Cut Golf podcast” or “Hey Google, play the latest episode of The First Cut Golf podcast.”

-LISTEN to First Cut on your preferred podcast platform: https://plnk.to/TheFirstCut
-LEAVE a 5-star review on Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2VOeKVW
-STREAM on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/firstcut
-SUBSCRIBE to CBS Sports variety of other podcasts: https://cbssports.com/podcast

VIDEO

-WATCH CBS Sports HQ: https://cbssports.com/live
-SUBSCRIBE to CBS Sports HQ on YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/CBSSportsHQ/

WEBSITE
-READ top-notch golf content from CBS Sports: https://cbssports.com/golf

SOCIAL MEDIA
-FOLLOW First Cut on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FirstCutPod
-FOLLOW First Cut on Instagram: https://instagram.com/firstcutpod/
-FOLLOW Golf on CBS on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GolfonCBS
-FOLLOW Golf on CBS on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/golfoncbs/

-FOLLOW Golf on CBS on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@golfoncbs?lang=en

ABOUT THE SHOW: The First Cut brings you everything you need to know in the world of professional golf. Nearly every day Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter, Mark Immelman, Greg DuCharme, Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald bring you the best analysis in the game. From DFS to betting previews, interviews and recaps… everything golf is on the table when you listen to The First Cut.

[Music] welcome into the first cut podcast live on CBS Sports Network Joe muso alongside Rick gimon Kyle Porter Rick I must always say thank you for allowing me onto the Pod the gatekeeper course per se uh we love to get things going here we are the PGA Championship from Valhalla what a week out in front of us here fellas we’re going to touch upon all it over this next hour including some player names but I want to start with the setting Big Boy golf course 7600 yard it’s wet it’s not going to be firm out there to an extent at least the Fairway is going to make it even longer for these guys what sort of test is out in front of them this week KP yeah it’s it’s different The Boys Are Back by the way Boys Are Back running it back from oakill this is this is fantastic but it’s it’s different uh it’s it’s kind of sandwiched between U you know Augusta National and Pinehurst where we see the US Open in June I would say it’s a very different test than than those two places we were talking about this earlier on CBS Sports HQ it’s it’s a point and shoot sounds like condescending right but it’s it’s very much an execution Justin Thomas said this on Tuesday he said there’s not a lot of different ways to play the golf course and and you look at a place like Augusta you look at a place like Pinehurst and there’s a lot more strategy at least to me involved with uh with with golf courses like that so to me this is this is it’s different it’s massive we say this all the time Rick but it seems like there’s only four five six guys that can win this tournament you’ve been walking around more than I have do you agree with that statement I do I think there’s a few things you’re you’re right in the sentiment that there are not a lot of options out here the the the only place that I can think of there’s where there’s two options are the the t-shot on seven it’s a it’s a split Fairway you can either play it down the right or you can play it down the left but it’s a bar five so I don’t even think that the scoring variance is going to be all that high I think they’re going to be able to take advantage of it as long as they don’t drop D it into the water that splits those two Fairways um that’s that’s the biggest decision that these guys are going to have to make the rest of it is just going to be a test of execution which is what we’ve been talking about all week long and there are so many shots out there that you just have to hit a strong shot like there’s just no exception you you can’t wipe it you have to square it you have to do that once off the tea and then you have to do it on your approach shot and there’s really no other way around it and that’s why when we start saying there’s only 10 or 12 guys maybe less that can win this that that’s what we’re talking about it’s it’s not something where you get a tricked up Golf Course where maybe a couple guys get lucky and everything goes their way it’s like you’re just going to have to beat it our CBS Sports stat team does such a great job there’s always a couple in there that make you say let’s check that and it’s always right because they are the best in the business but the one that got me no player has won a PGA at Valhalla outside of the top four at the conclusion of any round the first round second round you have to keep Pace here why is that I think it’s because there’s not uh a huge like like there’s probably not going to be a lot a wide range of scores I mean there will be compared to skill levels right there’s there’s 20 Club Pros out here there are um past champions you’re going to see guys shoot High numbers but when you talk about the guys that are really in the mix the 10 or 12 or 15 guys I I think they’re all going to be within a much tighter dispersion so having to be on Pace makes a lot of sense KP there’s not going to be a way where John ROM steals five shots or some you know somebody you might steal one or two here and there but you’re just going to have to play good call yeah it reminds me of Tory Pines in that sense right 2021 US Open uh you had that I called it a uh like a a pile up of Lamborghinis because it was Bryson it was Rory it was ROM it was you know big big hitters only and you know Justin Thomas again said this on Tuesday said you you’re probably going to get a bunch Leaderboard on Sunday which you know it Augusta National allows you to go out and separate we’ve seen that we’ve got a lot of uh finishes at the Masters recently that haven’t been that exciting you think about both of Scotty you think about I guess hadi’s got a little bit got a little bit tight got a little bit in Rah kind of blew kka out I don’t necessarily know or think that’s going to happen at Valhalla this week so you can say what you want about the lack of strategy or the point and shoot or whatever but I bet on Sunday we’re talking about how good the Sader board is much in that same vein it’s a place that’s produced playoffs in two of the three pgaas that have been contested here and in the Senior PGA that’s been contested here so sit back strap in we might have extra golf for you this week on CBS Saturday and Sunday coverage coming your way KP we’ve sort of danced around it a little bit here but is there a premium to be put on any one aspect of the game obviously you’re going to have to drive it well but is there going to be a possibility for someone who is proficient in Long iron play maybe not the longest off the team to remain relevant throughout this tournament yeah I think so and I’m actually curious to to uh throw this at Rick in terms of whether it’s easier to hold like there’s been a lot of moisture this week we got that on Tuesday it was kind of rainy when we when we um got were coming up here today does does that help hold Fairways better or greens better I’ll give you a second to think about that because I think the thing that I think about as it relates to this golf course is Tiger said on Tuesday hey um I can’t remember if he said 2000 or two or 2014 but I’m hitting driver wedge into the first hole and now I’m hitting driver fivewood and that’s a different Rick you and I were joking about how far back they’ve moved that first T but it it’s going to be a test of there’s going to be some four irons five irons six irons just some clubs that we don’t see a lot uh especially on the PGA tour but even at major championships which man I just think of guys like ludvig and Rory and Ron and Sheffer you’re you’re really like ball striking flushers that are going to thrive uh at this golf course this week it has been a very wet week but I’m really impressed with the course conditions phenomenal this place drains so well uh there are literally drains yeah almost every 10 yards in the fairways so when I was out there uh this morning and and yesterday afternoon the fairways were in perfect shape and you were still getting a decent bit of roll we saw it this morning the greens are very receptive and we saw shots that are making big pitch marks and they’re holding they’re spinning they’re doing all that fun stuff to get back to your question Joe about you know what kind of what’s the skills that what could separate I I think it’s Club head speed but outside of that I think it’s patience you know this is a golf course that there are going to be birdie holes and there’s going to be bogey holes or if you make par you’re thrilled with it throughout the week There’s a couple of opportunities out there and you just have to kind of go with the eser flows or you know Bob and weave you could Bob and weave okay Bob and weave Muhammad Ali there’s connections I was working on something there didn’t go great reference number one weave your way around this golf course uh fly like we’ll get there uh Rick we do have a lot to look at in terms of the forecast it could be a stop and start week here that’s going to dictate the draw one way or the other and only time will tell but it’s not what Tiger Woods needs this week we’re going to get to some of the top names here in just a bit on the first cut podcast but tiger at the top let’s just take care of it right now what are you expecting to see out of Tiger Woods here on a wet golf course it does not look like the easiest walk in the world and Tiger’s comments on Tuesday didn’t even appear to be as glowing as past tournaments we’ve seen him at KP what did you take away from what he said yeah I I thought he was um you know he he basically said I’m not sharp which obviously but I think I think to hear him say that I think I think we look at Tiger sometimes and think like oh he’s Tiger Woods he can figure it out and even when he won the master in 2019 he had been playing a lot leading into that tournament four or five times uh leading into that 2019 Masters that he won we saw him uh on a cart he was uh getting carted around somewhere uh early on Wednesday and he just looked he looked kind of kind of miserable and and I don’t the shoulders were slung yeah there’s no there’s no like the picture you’re seeing right there that’s kind of what a little of that kind of what it looked like and so I just listen Tiger has an advantage we talked about this earlier Rick he has an ad when he can think his way around a Golf Course Augusta National the old course even something like a Lac or a Pinehurst these kind of um you know not the grown-up graduated rough but more the the nippy chips and like all all the kind of creative stuff he’s really good he’s still really good when he can think and strategize his way around this is not that golf course and I just I don’t think it’s really going to go that well this week I’m I’m expecting pain and suffering I I hope I’m I hope I’m wrong and I hope it’s just pain on the scorecard and not actual physical pain but it’s this is such a long golf course if he is not driving it well which there’s not a ton of evidence that that he will he’s going to be playing out a thick kind of nasty rough throughout the week once you start compounding errors which is something he’s done recently it’s just it’s just going to beat you up there’s going to be Bogies there’s going to be double Bogies all over the place plus the fact we have generally seen him get worse each day because of the body I just this is going to be a tough test for Every body it’s going to be a really difficult test for Tiger despite all of that honor on the tea always belongs to the 15-time major Champion but coming up next we get to the names at the top of the odds board a three pack of players entering on form this is the first cut podcast live on CBS Sports Network [Music] back on CBS Sports HQ live on CBS Sports Network this is the first cut podcast we got a lot of responsibilities this week fellas our responsibility here is to have a conversation about those who truly have a chance to win this tournament and your eyes immediately go to Brooks kka he’s done this before backtack PGA championships did it with the US Open as well Brooks coming in on form off a win in Singapore and that’s usually indicative of signs of things to come he’s such a momentum golfer Kate how much was that win in Singapore worth and how much is that dictating the way we’re talking about him today yeah I think it was meaningful I mean he he he played pretty bad at the Masters for for him right for his Expectations by his own admittance yeah and he talked about that he talked about that I believe at uh at Adelaide uh the live Australia event and played well there obviously played great at at Singapore and you know I it this week will be really interesting for him because we’re getting into the or we’ve gotten into the point where every major championship that Brooks kept wins now is is historically relevant uh you could argue that every major Championship win by anybody is historically relevant but uh for him it it we’re getting into some some pretty Uncharted Territory so where the oxygen gets a little bit thin right I’m going to read the names uh a list of names of guys that have won six Majors since World War II so the what’ you call it Joe live ball era the liveb ER lot of baseball Illusions here this week so this is the guys that have won six since World War II Jack Nicholas Tiger Woods Ben Hogan Gary Player Tom Watson Sam Sneed Arnold Palmer Lee trino Nick falo and Phil Mickelson who beat Brooks Kia in 2021 at kiaa to win that PGA to to get into the uh the six major Club so that’s the company that Brooks is trying to to join this week which is uh it’s pretty extraordinary I mean it it’s it Brooks is weird to think about because he doesn’t win a lot outside of Majors but if we’re only looking at major championships I mean Phil he’s at the age now when Phil started winning majors and Phil got six from then on Brooks still has a lot of years left to to rack up uh several more rarified air back in good health always great to have Brooks in the mix but you said the word that I think might be the lever point for Brooks and it’s history or historical reference and it feels like he doesn’t engage with that all that much that’s great for us to sit in place what he’s done and what he maybe do maybe does do this week Rick but the fact that he doesn’t engage with those ideas of what this means and he’s just there to like we just heard him say hit good shots play good golf win a golf tournament one shot at a time he makes little of a big situation do you think that feeds into his success of course I mean he he has a skill set of living in the moment right that that’s that’s a skill he does not relish uh good or bad shots he does not let that linger over his head he doesn’t think about what a a sixth seventh eth major championship could mean for his legacy he can reflect on all of that later when he’s retired and he’s got a room full of of trophies but he’s able to just take one shot at a time as corny as that sounds and we saw like we don’t get to see Brooks a lot right he’s not on the PGA tour anymore and it is always jarring the first time you see him hit a shot it it just keeps going up it it his Apex is insane it it comes down soft it it it floats like a butterfly there it is it stings like a beab it does it does a lot of different things but it is so is down go g valuable at major championships when you’re able to do that and he looks as as Loose as can be he looks like he’s ready to just rock and roll this week I think one thing that that when we talk about Brooks we have to talk he had this quote after lived Singapore and he said at major championships I’m willing to go to a place where other guys are not willing to go which sounds a little bit vague and ambiguous right but I think what he means by that is something that I think Scotty shuffler has been very very good at which is staying present with each shot at a major it’s easy to get out over your skis if you’re any of these top guys and say well if I just make we do this when we’re playing oh if I make three birdies in a row we’re good to go which I don’t know why we would think that but these guys do it too right and and and Brooks I think has mastered a skill of staying in the moment and keeping his head when everything’s getting chaotic and that’s why he’s got five of these and and looking at a six anybody else we might be having a bigger conversation about a putter change as well Brooks notably uh with a different Scotty in the bag this week I believe he did have it in play at the Masters as well and Singapore got his first win on that flat stick but let’s talk about another guy who made a putting change and has lit the world on fire s Scotty Sheffer obviously in the minds of everybody including his competitors since we last saw him Rick Tiger Woods glowing about his ball striking Colin morawa talking about the things he needs to do and what he needs to be to compete with him Jordan Speed talking about for the first time in his career looking up to somebody younger than than him none of this prompted by anything but Scotty sheffer’s play how does fear play into what Scotty sheffler might do this week he is living rentree in these guys in these guys brains and it’s a it’s a different type of fear it’s not tiger is going to destroy you it is Scotty’s inevitable and Scotty’s going to be there and I know I’m going to have to deal with Scotty eventually right he he’s not going to uh he’s not going to give a tournament away if this was tennis he’d probably have zero forced errors right he just never plays himself out of contention and when he piles up as many opportunities as he does it’s just a matter of time before before he nips you and and KP it’s you know it’s interesting because it has been a couple of weeks since we’ve seen him I don’t expect anything different right I mean you talks about the process he is so good especially when he gets into the schedule of tournament week when he gets into it’s this you know same thing I’m going to go to bed at the same time I’m going to wake up I’m going to do my process once he gets into tournament week he is on autopilot I don’t expect anything but greatness this week yeah I think there’s a couple things with Scotty here um I I think people are not really internalizing understanding what he’s doing this is this is historical stuff I mean look at these numbers since the start of 20120 he’s minus 73 at the major championships list and separate next best is Rory at minus 34 and Rah at minus 33 those guys have had amazing major runs over the last couple years Rah won the Masters Rory’s been in the top 10 and seven of his last nine he’s only missed one cut and Scotty is just destroying those guys and I think it’s the same thing uh that I said about Brooks which is his and I think about um the 10th hole at the Masters third round he makes a double hits it long there makes a kind of a bad six and you’re like okay ludvig’s coming Bryson’s up there you had all these guys that had a shot and they didn’t get him and he Eagles 13 and the tournament was over and the thing that he has the ability to do is to stay in the moment to not think about the six that he made on the 10th hole at the Masters to play 11 to play 12 to Eagle 13 and then and then it’s over and and I think that that ability to just like I said with Brooks stay present focus on the next shot and not think about what you did two holes ago which is very easy to say and very difficult to do uh is one of the things that has made him a a two-time major Champion it’s certainly spectacular as he looks to become just the seventh player in that same modern history since 1934 to win the first two legs of the Grand Slam if that is the case and the conversation heads to Pinehurst with him two for two you’re going to have to get out the ice bucket for these two guys because the takes will not be reasonable we’re going to be fired up let’s not get ahead of ourselves here because like you said it’s going to be hard for anyone to separate at this test as history has shown us before Rory mroy another player coming in with a victory in his pocket the Wells Fargo we know that’s a cozy set up for him this as well KP how does Quail Hollow mirror what we might see here at Valhalla and how does that play into Roy’s Advantage yeah I saw uh I think it was Will Wilcox who’s the uh the caddy for sunj that’s right he said the back nine is very Quail holoye Rory they’re first and second uh in the world in in Strokes gained off the tea this year which is instructive for place like this right because that’s where we’re going to see especially Rory with with his length really I think be able to um to have an advantage over I mean Joe and I were just on the Range and we’re looking at a no offense to Charlie Hoffman but we’re looking at a Charlie Hoffman game and and and it’s like man what do you what are you thinking when Rory is next to you when ludvig is next to you when Xander’s next to you hitting you know 320 330 340 it’s just it is a different game and instead of having you know maybe some some Lumber into some of these greens Rory’s going to have six iron seven iron uh and and other guys are going to have three iron three wood and that’s just that’s a that’s a different scoring experience at a place like ball Kyle asked me that same question when we were on the Range what is Charlie Hoffman thinking right now sandwiched between Xander shafley and lud Oar and uh top 70 in thae I think that’s that’s sort of where the head is at for a guy like Charlie Hoffman the head for Rory maroy is to put an end to a decade long drought his last major championship obviously coming here 2014 at Valhalla not yet a calendar decade because of the change in rotation but do you think I mean he’s a guy unlike Brooks that engages with those ideas thoughts of History what this could mean do you think that works against him yeah I do I mean he is too much of a historian uh he himself said he could rattle off what the last 50 Masters winners or or something of that nature the problem with knowing that is that everyone that passes that you don’t get the pressure gets ratcheted up he knew the pace that he was on uh he knows it’s been 10 years and every time another major passes it’s another missed opportunity for him to etch his name deeper into history and I know that’s what he wants and and that does start to work against you I do think there’s a couple of things though there there is kind of a second season for Rory mroy the the postmasters season and he spends basically his entire offseason getting ready for uh that first full week in in in April and now that that’s gone there’s a little bit more freedom and to your point KP um you know on the stat sheet on the way that these places set up there is a lot of Quail Hollow out here driver driver heavy golf course with with thick rough where you’re going to have to hit a lot of mid to Long irons into greens maybe add in a little bit of thick rough around the putting surfaces this is all very good stuff for R the way he hit driver on uh Saturday at qu Hollow I think it was 2.99 Strokes gain yeah like fourth best round ever we were we were texting about it and you said yeah fourth best driving round ever and and and you could you could almost see him just so eager to just go get driver out of his back and that that I think he has so much confidence in that club right now and I think the more important thing last week was the wedges were good you know the short irons now might not have as many in at a kind of a extreme bigger version of qu hollow out here but uh I think that’s an encouraging thing if if you want Rory to win no corner he can’t cut we’re not cutting any Corners here on the first cut podcast we got plenty more coming throughout the hour including a surprise guest block out some time more coming on CBS Sports Network [Music] [Music] welcome back to the first cut podcast live on CBS Sports Network Joe muso alongside my guys Rick gimon and Kyle Porter here taking us through it all throughout the week at Valhalla so much at stake and sometimes we get hyperfixated on the moment that we live in but there are historical implications all over the place most notably Jordan spe PGA away from completing the career Grand Slam would be just a small handful of players to do that we haven’t seen one in a very long time I’m not going to ask you to go too deep on spe because we know he’s not on form we know the rist is bothering him so I’ll ask it to you this way KP as our resident historian what is the most historical Pro possible income here outcome excuse me here at the PGA yeah the income’s good too the inome is not bad for any I thought he meant just uh uh spe historian not overall his spe Island how how are things on spe Island spe Island we’re we’re putting up uh we’re boarding up the windows we are uh is very cheap putting sandbags out we’re we’re bracing for some look for real estate some turbulent times ahead I yeah obviously spe winning the slam would be the most historic outcome I I think there’s an argument to be made you can go one of three ways after that I think you can go Brooks uh getting to six I just uh earlier on the show I just read out the guys that have done that they’re all one-name guys tiger Jack Arie I mean it’s a it’s a who’s who list you could go Rory getting to five and and really making the the Rory Brooks major debate uh or not debate but um kind of clash really interesting for the next five or six years uh and then you could go Scotty taking the slam to Pinehurst I mean we’ve only seen Rick over the last quarter Century really we’ve seen 2002 uh tiger takes it to mirfield he won the first 2 in 2002 uh gets blown away and I believe it was the third round shot 81 storms blew in kind of his fam uh famously his worst round ever uh to that point uh on the PGA tour and then in 2015 spe took the slam to the old course finishes fourth one shot out of a playoff after he hit the worst t- shot I’ve ever seen on the 18th pole almost hit it out of bounds on the on one which was unbelievable so we just we don’t see guys take the slam to the third or fourth major very often it’s very rare like Joe pointed out earlier that anybody wins the first two of the year and I think what Scotty has a chance to do here golf needs a Feelgood Story I mean think about the last couple years we need a Feelgood story story Scotty taking the slam to Piner would be that feel-good story of the year yeah you have to vote process of elimination you have to vote Rory as option that that has to be out because Brooks has already done it it Brooks has already gotten to five first as as a modern player so it would be cool it would be awesome it would end a drought would set us up for the future but it wouldn’t be as impactful right now I I think it is Scotty not yeah I do I mean because not only would it give him three which would again El once you start getting yeah past two the the lists get shorter and shorter but I don’t I did not think and I still don’t really think a slam is possible I I I agree it there’s so much luck if I ask you that question on Sunday and Scotty sheffer’s holding the W maker will you have the same answer no I’m a prisoner of the moment I will be I will be he’ll me running laugh out here yeah I’ll already be handing him the slam it I just I think it would be so incredible a career ground slam is one thing to do it all in one year I and my brain is not ready to handle that cuz we’ve said it off air I don’t think there’s a setup more conducive to what Scotty’s great at than Piner he is going to be in the mix at Piner the short game the chipping that he doesn’t get credit for he did obviously at the Masters but that’s going to play right into his hand then you’re obviously at the behest of the draw at an Open championship and then but if we are at the fourth leg I mean that is that is the only thing anyone’s talking about yeah then it becomes the story win or lose right it’s it’s Scotty won the Slam or Scotty didn’t win the slam but I already I if you want me to pick right now I will pick Scotty to win Pinehurst he’s going I think he’s going to win the US Open this year he’s played very he played great at Lac last year I think the other thing to keep in mind is you look at the last take it back to 2017 the last seven winners of the or what whatever that is six winners of the PGA JT uh Brooks Brooks morawa Bill JT Brooks Brooks that’s an that’s a hitters only list couple honorable mentions if Mor Howell won that’d be what three and 20 starts at Majors which would be an unbelievable Pace ludvic yeah winning his second Masters or his second major well let’s let’s go there because this is a group of players that obviously deserves the Limelight players that have established themselves that are not just playing for a trophy and a check this week but for history because of what they’ve already done in their careers there is a young pack of players out here ludvic oberg headlining it but a number of guys who either don’t have PGA Tour wins have one PGA Tour win that could conceivably be on that leaderboard just as we saw him at the Masters who’s a young name that you have your eye on clear I mean we were watching oberg hit balls on the Range here and he looks like he could win everything now it’s fantastic Rick let’s go on lud for a little bit here what’s going to be theer break moment in his week this week I think it might actually be the knee right so so he withdrew uh from his from his most recent start with with a knee injury I asked him about it earlier he he very much downplayed it he said uh he is wearing a brace but it’s not going to impact him I thought he was very I mean listen he’s he’s great and I think he was just kind of downplaying it and uh didn’t want to get into knee conversation but I think that’s the that’s the only thing I I mean literally I mean his game is unbelievable we are not even a year into his professional career he’s got two wins worldwide he was on the Ryder Cup uh winning European team he tried to win The Masters was in the mix there just like it’s it’s it’s nuts what he’s doing he obviously hasn’t won at the rate or amassed what Victor hin did a year ago but feels like he’s occupying that line on the play Bill if you will in this story that we call Golf KP what are your expectations for Victor because this seems like a guy who had it all on a string I think we had the conversation last year uh after the Tour Championship I had him signed up for two majors and it’s just a completely different conversation right now well I think one of my takeaways from oakill last year when we were we did this very thing at oakill I said the thing that I was most convinced of this week is that Victor havin is going to win at least one major I mean he he stared Brooks down didn’t really falter until the 16th hole and kind of got a bad break in the bunk ER there and and ended up losing but he’s I mean Kevin Van valkenberg wrote a great piece for no Lan up.com uh for I believe it came out on Wednesday and just it he’s searching he’s he’s lost and he’s searching and he can’t find it and I I think the thing that the place that Rick and I have arrived at I think both of us is that guys like Victor who have the pedigree that he has from being a junior to being at Oklahoma State to winning the US am to everything that he’s done they will eventually figure it out but it makes you wonder a little bit like Bryson if the Curiosity and the going down rabbit holes is going to lead to some inconsistency over the course of his career right because yeah you look at I think about uh Rory being I wrote about this for CBS sports.com this week Rory’s been in the top 15 or top 16 in the world for like 12 straight years 13 straight years and I don’t know that that’s coming for Victor which doesn’t really matter as it relate you can still win a major and bounce in and out of the top 15 but I just don’t know that he’s that type of guy Rick you remain close to the situation here with Victor I always defer to your point of view on him having your ear to the ground obviously the coaching change made a lot of news earlier on this season just where’s the mental at right now coming into a week like this I I think the good news for Victor is he’s kind of always searching right I mean right he kind of he doesn’t mind not seeing the forest through the trees he just looking at trees Phoenix yes exactly oh that was and I mean that was a Lost Boy and then in a bunker for we did a full hourong podcast he’s working the same bunker shot as we get off air and that’s the same year he goes on and yeah you know shreds the PJ wins wins the FedEx Cup so he’s always in the midst of a search which which is kind of built into his DNA uh the good news being the the fourth round at at Quail Hollow was one of the best approach rounds he’s had he’s gained like four strokes on approach so maybe he feels like he’s he’s close there the the problem is those short game concerns are bad there’s been basically a full regression to his 2022 form something that we didn’t really see in 2023 maybe it’s the coaching change maybe it’s spending more time on the full swing maybe it’s just hey it’s golf or all of the above but that that is also something that we need to continue to keep an eye on so many amazing storylines at this PG I feel like someone’s going to get left out I’m glad you mentioned morala he seems to be on form the ball striking back to maybe not the level we saw at its peak but very very good stuff out of moraca and Xander Schley I mean it can’t go without saying what he almost did a week ago and how that fed into the narrative surrounding his inability to get it done what we saw last week KP does that get him closer to what he’s trying to do or further from it well I was looking at uh I went back and looked at okay who are the best who are the five best guys since the start of 2022 so statistically Strokes gain there’s five guys that are at two strokes gain or higher what is that like a top top five level basically massive you’re you’re playing as a top five player in the world it’s shuffler Rory ROM and then can’t land and sandrew sheffer’s got 11 wins in that time all of his wins have come uh in since the start of 2022 uh Rory and Ron both had seven this is non- team wins Rory won the Zurich I’m throwing that out Klay had uh or excuse me Xander had two and Klay had one and if you’re if you’re Xander or Klay but we’re talking about Xander you look at that and you’re like man I’m playing at a clip that Rah and Rory and maybe not shuffler but ROM and Rory are playing at but the winds aren’t there and you have to look at that and and and you have to deduce that’s a problem yeah like that’s a that’s an issue and I don’t know what the solve is but you have you there’s no there’s no way there’s no getting around the fact that that’s an issue for him I I have always been on the team that hey winning is a lot about luck and it’s going to start falling in in Xander’s Direction because of all the stuff that you’re talking about KP just puts himself in the mix and and the numbers don’t add up it it was like it was like when Scotty was going on that stretch where it was like why isn’t Scotty winning okay well now he’s winning too much right it just they just start they just start happening in bunches and for Xander it just it just it just hasn’t happened and that Sunday I will have etched in my brain at Quail Hollow the way that he became a spectator to Rory Mel right he stepped aside he play he he made an unbelievable Eagle on seven he took the tournament right there and then he just let Rory have it rick you know I could go for days like Anthony Kim coming off the 14th here at the rider I didn’t know it was over either but I’m being told we do have to take a break here plenty more coming on the first cut podcast live on CBS Sports Network Joe muso kyter Rick gon we’ll be back quick [Music] back on the first cut podcast live on CBS Sports Network Joe muso cow Porter Rick gaming fellas we got to get to some picks here assign a little bit of confidence see who you like who your eye will be most closely on Rick give me a pick and then a long shot two players you think fit what’s going to be asked here this week at bhalla yeah I looked at this from a very value Centric standpoint and I I went with John ROM to win because I I saw 16 to1 and my eyes popped out of my head for a guy who’s a former number one player and I believe is one of the eight to 12 golfers who can actually win this tournament he is literally not even exaggerating one of the best drivers of the golf ball on on planet Earth and then he can hit his long irons and he’s got a great short game that’ll be just fine around Valhalla and then I’m backing that up with another guy who who’s yet to break through but has a pedigree major championship so that’s will zat torus at 80 to1 80 to one yes the putter can be a problem yes he was miserable at the Wells Fargo Championship but when you put will zat torus in a major championship setup that asks you to do similar things that you have to do at Tory Pines Drive it well hit long irons do it again and again and again that smells like will outour to me KP yeah I’ve got uh I’ve got bravely I’ve got Scotty schuur winning this winning this bravery yeah I’m I’m really going out on a limb I I think that one of the most impressive Parts about Scotty Sheffer this year or throughout his career but especially this year he wins on so different types of golf courses Augusta National Harbortown TPC sass Phoenix he he wins Bay Hill he wins everywhere and so yes this is a different test than a than an Augusta than a Pinehurst than a trun uh but I think he’s going to handle it plenty fine he’s top two in the world off the tea uh and that’s what this golf course is going to demand this week uh for the PGA Championship winner and then I’m going with another guy that is Elite off the tea that’s Cam young I really like cam young I think he’s like 50 55 60 to1 it came down to kind of him and Bryson for me Bryson’s shorter I think Bryson has a very good chance this week at 28 to1 but uh cam Young’s just been incredible uh off the te and he’s really kind of popped a couple times this year finished second at valbar had a quiet top 10 uh at the Masters and I really like the way he’s played at major championships over the course of his career if Scotty does get it done it would be his first win beyond the month of April all of those wins coming from the start of the Season February through April we’ll see if he can get one in the summer months I don’t know correl causation seems like that game plays in any month in any town we’ll see if he can do it in Louisville myself not that anyone’s asking R mroy is my pick to win form fate all of it it lines up and tells me that it’s going to be Rory this week putting that drought to an end a celebration here full circle from what was a decade ago long shot based off of the fact that I just saw him on the Range and he always gives me butterflies Ricky Fowler scorting a 200 to one or longer number depending on where you there’s a reason for that yes there is aason for that our friends in the desert always know what’s going on but Ricky is still a guy that I hold out hope for to get a major champ Championship to further solidify his place in this game in the history of this game I don’t know if it comes this week but at 200 to1 a Sprinkle and a thank you maybe what if I told you somebody from one of the final two parents in 2014 is going to win this tournament this week should bet them all and because they’re all very there’s a lot of long shots in there yeah uh time moves fast on these players time moves fast on as well we got a little bit more coming here on the first cut podcast live on CBS Sports Network a quick break and we’re [Music] back back on the first cut podcast live on CBS Sports Network fellas we got a little extra time here so let’s play a game of simply put yes yes or no can this player win can’t this player win give me the number first KP we’ve had the conversation how many guys can actually win this tournament let’s let’s set the parameters first for me for you I think like six six guys I I I’ll take over six how far over well it’s it’s it’s not provable we’ll never be able to prove this I know that’s why that’s why I’ll just take it to the Grave that I’m right uh okay so 12 and six going to be a lot of nose coming from Kyle Porter I want to start with a name have not said yet but local ties here to Louisville form not there but a PGA Champion twice over in his own right Justin Thomas yester no KY Porter no but he might win like six PGA in his career which would be weird Okay obviously yes he’s won two of these before he’s at home and he’s one of the elite approach players in the world you think JT can beat Scotty Sheffer this week I need that’s the problem the problem is Scotty just wipes everybody off the board so it’s just one we’re saying we’re saying one guy can the answer is either one or 12 it’s not six all right let’s go to maybe obviously the odds board suggests yes but is it too big to write too big to handle Rory mooy yes okay yes of course obviously it’s too big to and it’s too big to I’m just trying to get you over six yeses I’m just going to offer Scot Scotty sheer Rory mroy Brooks Kea three yeses okay John ROM yes Bryson D Shambo yes I we up to five I I’ll tap out here we’re up to five uh let’s say can Smith win this tournament this week not a chance can cam young win this tournament you got him in a bind he does you got me you got a long you got me in a corner here uh maybe it’s seven maybe because the two the two names I have in my head are Camy young and wam Clark who we haven’t talked about at all yeah who’s a reigning uh major winner lud lud VI oberg so let’s go to Windam Clark here for a moment because maybe maybe it is 12 never recorded around under par at a PGA champion is there is there any through line to be drawn there has it just been hasn’t shown up for those few opportunities he has had yeah it’s interesting because you know you think PGA ballparks would set up really well for him his ball speed’s like 184 185 he mashes the ball off the te and you think about the right miss that got talked about a lot at at Lac last year this is a course that can kind of it can kind of handle it right depending on what hole you’re on because it’s not running out or do you disagree no I’m I’m I no I I mostly agree with you I I think the biggest thing is he has only played one PGA Championship as new wind so he play it was the Ws Fargo win and then the next week he missed the cut and then he went on I I just think it is he is in a new era of his game right now it’s like the max hom thing like oh he doesn’t have a top 10 and a m well yeah he was terrible for like the first four years of his career yeah how far down the board would you take me like my eyes go to a guy like Matthew pavon who’s had success early this season I know it’s a no for ukp but this is a tournament that at times has produced a winner that is unexpected let’s maybe go with a more expected here we do have some good names kyin morow is a a resounding yes for me Rick you’re giving me the yes as well Kyle no why not he’s not long enough I just I I think it’s I think it’s a I think this course is going to play like 8,000 yards okay and and I think you’re going to get into a situation where there’s a ton of three four five irons in and he’s I mean that’s a good area of his game but you’re going to have Rory and and Sheffer and Rah hitting you know 789 and we were uh having this conversation Rick and I in your absence yesterday KP and it’s interesting when you think about it not a lot of major tests end with a par five I mean you get it at Tor you get it at Pebble you get it a couple places you get it here at Valhalla do you like a par five finisher specifically this one I do like a par five finisher I don’t know that I love this one okay um I it’s I don’t know you you think back to 2014 right Phil almost chipped in for three which would have been Bonkers insane the third straight playoff right uh that that uh that they’ve had at this at this golf course for a major championship so I I think there are some outcomes I just don’t like the lack of uh we were talking about this earlier the lack of uh variance in in the potential outcomes at in terms of scoring on a on a bigger level like if you look at the whole round but also on some of the individual holes it just it doesn’t feel like a a place where you know I think about TPC Saw Grass you think some of those holes you’re like man thre’s in play SE sev’s in play and I don’t necessarily think that about this course when it’s wet it’s it’s I’m warm on it okay I I I think that you know you can get in I we saw Rory kind of flirt with the water on on the right on 18 so you can get in trouble a little bit it’s got to be a pretty big Miss I agree with Kyle like I don’t think Eight’s in play and I don’t necessarily think there’s a lot of Threes in play but it’s it’s not the worst spot I’ve ever seen you’re talking about variance how about narrative variance because there’s a clear difference the way we’re talking about walkie Neiman coming into this major and the one he was coming into just a month ago where do you see the change in that narrative we don’t get to see him play golf all that often but it seems like a player who is long enough yeah yeah and I I think I think what’s really interesting about WEN uh obviously individually he’s very talented he hasn’t played that well at Majors now it might be a Windom thing where it’s like oh this is a different player than when he was 2122 but I think the other thing that’s that’s really interesting that’s one of my main storylines this week is just the live guys coming into this week there’s been a lot of a lot of chatter a lot of jawing by guys like Taylor G who are like hey we deserve to be in this this field we deserve to be in this field and it’s like okay well you yeah you’re in it now like what are we going to see you know and so Walken’s part of that group to me in Norse mythology Valhalla means Garden of the fallen heroes not to be mistaken with the live golf tour I wanted to slide that I wanted I wanted to get that you’ve been dying at some point this week you presented opportunity there KP plenty of opportunity out in front of this field of 150 plus the best in the world going at it at Valhalla for Kyle Porter Rick gimon I your host Joe Musa we will have you covered here on CBS Sports Network the first cut podcast live all week long be sure to tune in join us on CBS Sports HQ as well pre and post round and coverage this weekend coming on CBS Jim Nance Trevor imman and our award-winning team bringing you all the latest at the PGA Championship download subscribe and enjoy the first cut podcast [Music]