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what is up everybody Welcome to better golf podcast I’m your host Spencer agar and I’m excited to be joined by my man Nick Brett wish as the two of us will be taking you through the board for the 106th rendition of the PGA Championship as always we hope you will consider signing up for Underdog fantasy the proud sponsors of this show you can use the signup code bgp to claim your special pick plus firsttime deposit offer of up to $250 in bonus cash underdog has a plethora of options for you to choose from this week for the PJ Championship they’re also crushing it with NBA playoffs and everything else that they have going on so be sure to check them out Nick what is up man I don’t know I’m excited but also not very excited I I think it’s going to be a great week to play DFS let’s I I don’t have any action yet um I’m waiting for my data to pull and push the odds away I want it to I’m having it has like Rory like plus 250 for some reason like it’s not pulling Scout into the field so I’m having issues with that so that’ll be fixed um but what you got on the card so far and then we’ll go like rapid fire on like what you think Savage golf podcast is live guess we kind of got after it last week but um any thoughts on Rory before you get into the like your betting card like he just absolutely went nuts on Sunday to me to me this is classic Rory I talked about this the week before the Masters that this is what Rory does every single time he finds himself in these positions where he wins tournaments before the week of the major and gets everybody all hyped coming into the event and seems to disappoint I I will say Valhalla is probably one of the best major championship setups I could think of for him it’s probably a realistic point to say that a PGA Championship would also the best courses in general for him to find success so he’s coming in with form it’s going to show up in the ownership it’s you’re going to get this and we’ll talk about it when we get into the $10,000 and up section but like between him Scotty Brooks that’s essentially every single win notable win you have a couple other ones in there like pendrith but like every notable win that we can talk about from the PGA Tour and live over the last month and I think they should be the three favorites I think you’re going to get this spot where you’re going to get a lot of ownership with all three you’re going to have to pick and choose and weave in and out of some of these decisions and I do know off air one of your stances that you have which we can talk about in a second but I I’ll very quickly run through my betting card um I want to give one one fun fact okay last time this PJ Championship was held at Valhalla 2024 Roy maoy was your Champion coming off of back-to-back wins the Open Championship so he won two majors that year because I think he was T T8 at the Masters this back from the PJ was in August I feel like it’s cooler in August like I I hate that the season like what is it two or three weeks in between Majors pretty much throughout the whole summer this year that kind of sucks I feel like it’s over too soon but Open championship winner WC WGC Bridgestone Invitational winner goes to PJ wins so he won two in a row if you count do you count New Orleans as a win yeah I mean I profited off of it so I’m going to count it okay that’s fair and then goes to PJ and wins at the same course and statistically speaking they didn’t have a ton of data from I mean there’s some but he looks like the same golfer except he hit more Fairways and he’s a little bit longer nowadays here’s the problem Nick I understand we’re talking about pumped up for him yeah I know you said it he’s going to show form people are going to be I’m I’m guilty guilty is charged this 2014 Victory and and at least you’re going back to the course that we can have this conversation about that’s his last major championship that he has put on his record good God you’re right it’s an astonishing situation that Rory has found himself in where he’s gone you know about 10 years now without adding one and I I think it shows to where when you have your opportunities to win you really have to pull them out because these streaks or these inactive abilities to put together these wins can come at any point and it’s kind of what Brooks was able to do at his best like he’s what is Brooks at now six Majors yes no five five Majors P PJ Championship I think was his fifth right that was his last one I think yeah I guess three PGA two opens is that confirmed yeah uh 2017 US Open 2018 US Open 2018 PGA 2019 PGA and then last year’s PGA yeah I mean you have to go on these runs when you can and maybe this is where Rory can pick things back up but I I I I I don’t I don’t know I I think unfortunately from a betting perspective we’re we have an inability to jump in at Rory at these prices like there was an Intrigue for me at the Masters and maybe the Masters was the wrong tournament when we talked one of the very first shows we did this year I told you 2024 is going to be the year of Rory and it’s been I said the year of JT so at least you didn’t take that stance even though he’s coming around he’s coming around I mean this is going to be the best course I think we’ve gotten from him in a while this is the first time that my model actually somewhat liked him it had him inside the top 20 of my model so uh take that for whatever it’s worth but Rory’s been in this spot at the beginning parts of the Year where there was always a b bad round that was being put together and I’m curious to see what will happen at a course like Valhalla I think that for this major championship it’s going to probably play easier than most PGA championships will and that is a good answer for Rory wet conditions from what I have heard that is a good answer for Rory back-to-back victories everything is stacking up for Rory to find success it’s just I until he wins a major championship again I don’t think I can be the one sitting there with a ticket okay it’s fair and sub 10 to one like it just takes up so much room on your card unless you’re just firing like crazy which by all means it’s a major I won’t talk you out of doing anything crazy but yeah it’s tough from a DFS perspective which is the majority of the show anyway I think there’s much more of a conversation to be had but before we go any further John ROM 20 to1 at MGM do I just do it I did it I mean there’s there was a bunch of 20 to ones out there I don’t know if numbers have moved if that’s the last 20 to1 available but when when I placed the ticket this morning there were four or five different locations in the space where you could find that price B online dropped to 18 B’s got 20 as well if you guys are offshore in a state that doesn’t allow you to do other stuff yeah mgm2 like John ROM’s one of the highest guys again my numbers are pulling with no Scotty so I don’t get why that’s happening but John ROM’s up there so yeah go ahead what’s uh what’s the matchups I love that you have multiple already and Monday we’re probably in good form to not have those numbers leave the train station so quickly correct I don’t know where we’re at that’s I’ll price check you go live let’s do it I assume I they usually move fast but we’ll see where we’re at so the two that I have in would be Shane Lowry minus 129 over Tom Kim that’s about as much juice as I will lay on most of these matchups um you can get that bet online and unibet which I believe is also using so like your bet Rivers should match that Shane Lowry over Tom Kim got it still there that’s good the other one would be Lucas Glover minus 120 over Adam hadwin that was you can tell me if it’s anywhere else I I’ve seen it specifically at Bed online is where I got it at confirmed still there so those would be the two that I have in right now the two that I am considering and these are the two that I would like to run by you and uh I don’t know if I’m going to get to the window on either one of these two but Taylor pen minus 120 over Billy horel yeah dude I’ll always take on Billy and the other one that I would be my model you were on Billy last week weren’t you yeah let me look at the shot link he wasn’t I mean his iron game was atrocious I think he better on Sunday though didn’t he come back a little bit yeah the thing that worries me I guess about horel is my mod Sunday he sucked too yeah he wasn’t good my model seems to have this overall safety for Hall um I’m kind of afraid that he makes the weekend comes in 57th place and you know I don’t know exactly what I’m going to get out of pendri it’s high upside numbers lower floor into the mix we’ve gotten really good results over the last handful from him could make an argument that’s overinflated the price a bit but as I always say I run my numbers from such a long-term duration so for pendrith to be a golfer last week that my model did not necessarily at the course setup and now all of a sudden you get him here where he can use his length and he jumps into a top 30 commodity pretty much across the board for me thought that was an interesting play and then the other one that my model actually had the biggest value of all the ones we’ve talked about but I seem to be have the most trepidation to actually place a wager on just because talked about this guy a lot recently I think both of us think that he’s a good golfer um Tom hogi minus 110 over Taylor Moore I like both of them that’s enough for me to stay off of it to begin with because I really like hogi this week I think my numbers might be bad on Taylor Moore just cuz like that’s the reverse of the answer of we’re running it too long is hurting me there I don’t necessarily want to get caught into this mix of a golfer like more a baiting him of a golfer that I like but um if you want to talk p is pendrith over horel I think that should be closer to minus 13 35 minus 140 just looking at it blindly without my numbers actually spitting out a price but dude he was he is a ball striking machine the past month obviously he got the win but he top 30 every single round last week and he’s got a really good short game you know he’s gonna make putts yeah when you compare those two together and and like we’ll just there’s six main categories that I ran this week uh weighted Strokes gain total we can talk about what that means in a second but pendrith inside the top 30 horel outside of the top 85 when you look at Strokes gain total on Long courses in hard scoring neither one of them necessarily delivers 78th for pendrith 120th for horel I ran this major championship filter in my model so that’s going to favor Billy horel over pendri there I just don’t have enough opportunities from pendri that’s going to make him look good there weighted scoring 28th for pendrith 96 for horel um I looked at this it’s a mixture essentially of Fairway Bunker play and rough play um it’s trying to find weighted approach numbers there I think you kind of come into this very interesting situation with this course where in the one end if you find the rough you’re you’re going to have to be able to play out of it second thing is with this zoa grass you’re going to get a lot of extra roll out here from what I’m reading every s single thing that I see it seems like a lot of balls are going to end end up rolling out into these bunkers I wanted players that could have good proximity numbers from there you think a pendri big strong kid or guy at this point I guess he’s older than I always think he is for as long as he’s been around but uh inside the top 50 for me horel ended up putting together a fine grade there and then really the main difference that just completely shifted my model in One Direction weighted ball striking that’s kind of what you’re talking about Nick with Ben pendra ball striking that he’s put together inside the top 30 for me with pendrith porel 112th in this field for that I’m out pendrith in and penders is a good bunker player isn’t he uh so inside of my model from an overall sand save percentage bad from an overall Fairway bunker good and that’s more of what I’m looking for to begin with so that’s kind of he’s hitting all the marks that I would like to see for this week I always when I fate horel it goes either really good or really bad it’s always a situation where horel is either in the top 10 or horel just egregiously misses the cut and it’s an easy win I had that at the Zurich a couple weeks ago when I took Hustler and his partner um I think it was Sam Ryder over Tyson Alexander and horel I I do think that the market might still be a little bit overcorrected from that victory that horel had a handful of weeks ago so I I don’t know Nick that would probably be the third if there is a third right now I’m still waiting for DraftKings and FanDuel to drop their prices but that is where I’m at inside of the head-to-head Market the two locked in probably pendrith over horel being the third there and then for the outright bets I took Dustin Johnson at 90 to one yeah that is that’s just long gone isn’t it yeah that was that was something that sat there for a second and I don’t know uh bet 365 I think still has it do they that number has drifted up there because I don’t believe 100 one I’m bet online have you usually you check there right where 901 but online sorry I just refreshed yeah that’s where I placed it was there so the number hasn’t moved it’s still out there FanDuel so for the legal book users like I I don’t think he wins I think he’s more of a placement bet in like DFS leverage I’m just starting to get the vibe that he may not care as much anymore and the Open Championship of 2022 is like slowly after his live stuff so it’s like that’s when I still had a lot of love for he was playing really good golf in 2022 anyway leading up to that transition but you know what’s interesting Nick though inside of my model I Dustin has been outside of that St Andrews where appearance at the open where we were both on him every other time that he has teed up in a major I don’t I think I don’t want to speak for you on this but I know for myself he has been one of the biggest fade candidates that I’ve had on my sheet every single week and this is the first time since s St Andre Andrews we’ve actually had the potential where the upside numbers in my model absolutely love him so I agree I don’t think he necessarily wins 90 to1 is a wild price like I’ll I’ll find out if he can win at that price I took Victor hland at 50 to one I texted you last I texted you last night there’s no world that I am betting Victor hin anytime soon and numbers drifted on hin early this morning and you’re going to get a lot of that like you just need to be patient in this space you’re going to have books competing for prices and numbers are going to be on the move up and down everywhere if you don’t get it at one spot you might get it somewhere else so I grabb I grabbed them at 50 and then the other two would be the top of the board Wagers for me I took John ROM at 20 to1 I I do think that there is this live bias on both ends of the spectrum where and I have one of them but guys like Bryson and kka are getting a lot of respect in the market and guys like Dustin Johnson and ROM and a handful of those other names seem to be drifting up the board so I mean this is a golfer and John ROM that if you took his aggregated totals over like a three-year running time frame inside of these Majors he was probably what 12 13 14 to one on average there yes absolutely now we get a 20 to1 golfer after one failed appearance at the m so that was very intriguing to me I ended up also taking and I never do this I took Brooks kepka at 17 to1 Brooks I feel like has too much Steam for my liking um but yes Mark great point so a grass in Singapore he kicked ass too didn’t he didn’t he win by two or three I don’t know how many won by I know he won which is the important part yeah I am taking the John ROM 20 to one ticket that was like the only ticket I did punch and that was just off of like number grabbing which moves me to my next question everybody’s talking about driver distance a little bit about accuracy depending on who you ask what is your total driving pushing a little bit more this week distance which I think yes especially if it’s going to be soft I mean it’s what 7600 yards and then could play longer based on obviously could play shorter based on where some T’s are because I know they’re going to make I what I don’t forgot what hole is 13 or 14 maybe it’s a driveable par for depending on where the T box is it looks like there’s not going to be much wind at all um rain tomorrow and I think other than that potentially rain Thursday but nothing like crazy crazy I think it should be a really good week but John ROM yeah outside the Masters again it’s Liv less guys but even the Euro Cup or Euro stuff that he was playing in the fall he has top 10ed every single event besides the Masters and the Masters he couldn’t make a putt and I want to say let’s check his Strokes game through like day by day cuz I was super heavy on at Augusta like I I made the choice on going him and obviously that one Scotty lineup was was awesome but didn’t play any Scotty other than that because I dug my face in John Ramen ate it I mean he sucked off the tea on Monday or on Thursday which I think at Augusta is pretty alarming maybe I don’t know what his deal was that day but not good came back sucked putting he sucked putting all week um shot four over on Friday but that was what 25 mph sustained winds with gusa to [ __ ] 100 like I don’t think he was having fun out there I don’t think anybody was having fun besides Scotty lights out ball striking third in the field on Saturday and kind of mediocre and couldn’t make a putt on Sunday so I don’t know I feel like yeah obviously Friday I don’t even think four over was that bad compared to the field but he could not make a putt so I feel like he played pretty damn well in really tough conditions obviously just didn’t make a putt so I’m 20 to one on John around for a guy that when no one’s going to talk about him because Brooks just won last last live event that’s where all the live action is going to go and Bryson Bryson’s gonna get a lot of support yeah and that makes sense too like d they still 9600 probably not expensive enough and he’s just playing really good golf and he’s very vocal about his game saying it is in I mean same thing going into Augusta like he had to I didn’t realize he had like his own YouTube channel and I don’t really like the guy I don’t think he’s like I don’t like watching his videos I think he’s just such a goob and I’ve been saying it on this show for years I believe he’s a virgin which is fine that’s his choice by all means great but like that those are just the weird Vibes he gives me and again all due respect to him if he’s waiting but like he just I he weirds me out and then like that’s where I had to find like golf media was so no one had the beat on his irons if they did they didn’t release it um you know so I don’t know if you’re a reporter if you’re not reporting like the biggest news I when who knows I don’t think I would have thought much about it either but when he talks about his game being in great shape and him saying these irons helped him a lot I think that means a lot like he’s a guy that has never really lied to the media regarding his own game when he was hurt he mentioned that a lot and so I don’t know I like Bryson his game especially for this venue but John Ram is going to be my I’m gonna plant my flag there again and if I’m wrong I’m wrong but um do you want to push this into DFS or you got any other betting stuff no let’s let’s move this into a DFS discussion because I think this top of the board conversation is what’s going to be very interesting this week yeah I have John Ram at 8% Rory right around 20 Scotty right around 25 I’m going to fate Scotty again 13.2 hasn’t played golf in a couple weeks new father you know proa I don’t know I’m just G to talk myself into a narrative you guys can always play Scotty I will never tell anybody not to do it I’m not going to do it mainly because I couldn’t find really anyone in the 5K range I I like I would love to play the old German Hammer Martin kimer but now St Jer is the German Hammer so Ker’s out I don’t mind toasty but we’ll get into that range anyway but it’s like it was really hard for me to talk uh obviously Kad Nakajima I do I look into these younger guys often I think I’ve been talking about tiger for two years and he finally showed out a little bit at the Masters right he was he really good at Augusta I do not recall let me see no he didn’t when did he play last he was good recently what was it oh the CJ cup Byron Nelson okay he topped 10 that other than that not much but I I don’t know it’s just we need a hammer kid P I haven’t found one dude Ed they have destroyed the top 40 Market it doesn’t exist anymore it’s like anything now even if I bet a top 40 I’m still losing like 20 points of value on it that I used to have years ago and that has killed me like my betting season has not been that good um because I kind of used to make a weekly living off of a top 40 or two and those were like my break even for the card if and then if you H an outright and head one or two of those is great but yeah it’s it’s been tough but yeah so I feel like I’m gonna play a ton of John ROM and I don’t think I could fade Rory I think if he’s vibing he’s vibing he’s only 600 more than John ROM who I I like a ton but 1,200 less than Scotty I think they kind of made a mistake he should be like 125 so I do think Rory’s too cheap I I agree with that I mean and as far as the placement markets are concerned it’s the I mean I guess I I I am also negative in some of those random made Mis cup sort of Bets with it but the placement Market is the only sector right now that I’m negative in uh minus 2.35 units 20 negative 23 well I the difference is Nick is you have more plays in that market than I do a lot of my exposure comes in the matchups which is what has saved me this year for the most part also have found success in the outright Market but uh 23.36% in the negative Roi there on those so uh I don’t know what your R Roi percentage is but I mean that’s 20 negative 23% is not good it’s tough yeah mine course not good at all this year at least but overall it’s been really good but they this year it’s just been a whole new life of how they’re pricing this out and the whole percentages are through the roof or they just want and obviously golf going to more elevated events and no cut stuff like that’s going to hurt my exposure a little bit there too because then I’m chasing guys like Kirk Kama top 20 but it was you know plus 225 last week and just didn’t really do he was in position on Sunday morning just didn’t really score and that course played really tough so it was fun to watch I took Matthew pavon that was my one my one placement wager 18 over or whatever ended up being yeah dude and then thues over morawa he just [ __ ] the bed on Saturday what did he shoot he shot 80 81 Yik Good Times all right uh any thoughts on Scotty I mean I don’t think this show we need to talk about Scotty shuffler people either get it or they don’t like you you want to play him and you ride them I will never talk you off of it but 13.2 new father I’m gonna tell myself he’s tired I I probably would rather play Rory and Brooks so I I guess that means that I’m going to be out on the ownership of Scotty also based off of that it’s just a game theory answer I you can probably play one of those names in reality I I do think they’re going to going to the majority of them Trend upwards in ownership like I I I’m worried that kepa’s ownership is just going to get out of control at some point because he is the cheapest one of the group and all I’ve seen are outright cards that include Brooks Kea on there is he worth it here here’s the thing Nick I I never play Kea I get burnt every single major championship by him I fade him 100% of the time and I watch him top 10 practically every single tournament and win the other half that he he ends up putting himself in contention in this is the first time in a really long time that my model really liked him a lot of this came down to I ran this a little bit differently for this go around like obviously I wanted to look at past PGA championships I think that’s a very interesting thing when you don’t have the same course that’s being played every single year here like we do the Masters there are certain criterias within a game that are going to be pronounced just when you look at the yardage on the scorecard you’re going to have to have some semblance of distance you’re also going to have to have some ability to hit your long irons when I added those two things together and then I threw into the mix historically how somebody has hit their putter in a major championship which I have never run that as part of my putting metric that I’ve thrown into a sheet before kka broke my model in quite a few ways like he was this lost Strokes putting just four times in Majors he was decisively number one in Strokes gain total PGA championships that’s what happens when you win three out of the last five that would be that’s going to be the answer there but for me what I really like to see is he was also number one in Strokes gain total that’s the course specific outlook for Valhalla that’s not taking anything that we have talked about or we’ve seen in the past from him that’s only taking from what I could provide datawise and what I could had in my database worth of numbers that I could pull from him and it thought he was the best player here so PGA championships in my mind are clearly where he is best suited to find this high-end success I can’t find myself in a position where I fade him and continue to just bleed money at this tournament for that reason so I think he’s worth it I think he’s too cheap I think you could make an argument between Rory Scotty and Brooks of what this pricing should actually be I guess for me though I have a hard time saying that Brooks should be if we’re directly comparing him to oberg we’re directly comparing him to morawa like I would rather move up in price to get to him and then I would rather take him than Xander and I’m the biggest Xander supporter that there probably is in the entire world at least when it comes to model yeah yeah okay I have nothing wrong what what do you not like about Xander it’s not that I closing ability like Killer Instinct like something that you can’t see on paper or is there actually metrics that you don’t love when you’re pulling for a Xander here no I I think for the most part everybody in this top end range is going to look really good you have you have three four five six seven he grades out as the best long iron player for me expected this week yeah there there’s a lot that there’s going to be to like about him I guess the only negative thing that I could Point towards is he has not historically been good out of the thicker rough okay so if the off the te game falters a little bit you know at some point there is scar tissue that comes into play with the inability to close like he is not a robot you could put yourself in the contention so many times and if you don’t get over the Finish Line like I think he’s very expensive for what we’re getting here I I don’t dislike him though he’s the fourth player in my model it’s like it’s a very small difference between a lot of these names but when I was actually trying to find Elite qualities that I could uh extrapolate out a little bit within my sheet those Elite qualities came from Scotty they came from Rory they came from John ROM and I think that’s what makes JN ROM this week one of the better leverage plays to begin with I I don’t have ownership up in front of me I’m going to run this on Tuesday I don’t know if you said what you have on ROM right now seven but anything that I say like again this is so subject to change I just don’t think John ROM’s going to get steamed at all because you know obviously people are going to ride a little bit of Reon formance Ander and it’s been a hell of a season for him Brooks being cheaper I think most people put John Ramen Brooks at the same price are still going to choose Brooks and Rory only being 12K like ownership’s not going to go to John ROM so I’m I’m pretty confident in that and then with Ed’s question here which is a great question I think it’s more of a personal thing in a game theory question like play Brooks Brooks and Rory and bet ROM I feel like if you’re playing DFS maybe fade one of the Brooks or the Rory if you can stomach that and if you’re playing mme like it depends on contest size but I think you have a much more expected value playing John ROM in DFS and if he does go crazy then five to 8% of the field having him and you being like 20 to 30% John ROM I think you have you’re you’re probably going to make more money that way than betting him 20 to one right yeah I I’m probably the wrong person to ask about proper exposure in these spots too because that’s how I look at it but I’m also like again sorry to cut off I do it all the time so for those listening that’s kind of like whatever idea I just I have to ask Spencer right away otherwise I’m going to forget and I’m going to be mad later but like that’s how I look at it but I also have weeks where I completely get my ass kicked but then weeks it goes right like then it goes really right but to me like I’d ra even though I am on John ROM 21 already I feel like if I’m gonna max out the Millie maker this week then John ROM top three that event at 5 to eight% would be much more advantageous for me to just go heavy on that side of things but that’s how I look at it I don’t know if that’s a good answer does that make sense to the common listener hopefully no I I ask all the questions you want to guys by the way like we love the interaction sorry I’m me Spencer no I I I think that makes a lot of sense Nick with it it’s just I guess for me when it comes to exposure I don’t necessarily mix and match like we could talk about this from a fantasy like when I used to play in a bunch of fantasy football leagues and I had a bunch of Dynasty leagues like they always you know like split your portfolio and don’t have all of all your eggs and one basket I I am Allin in every single spot of where I find an advantage like I’m not trying to spread things out I do agree with what Nick said when you look specifically at Brooks and Rory there’s going to be a lot of ownership around those twoo I think you’re fine playing them and also having Ramen the player pool like if you’re if you’re making enough lineups I have no issues with those three those are probably the three names that I want my exposure to at the end of the day can get out on Scotty I can get out on Xander I probably want nothing to do with oberg with all these reports of him walking around with injuries at this point like that feels like a something ready waiting to backfire very quickly there is it bad do we know I considered bad here’s what I’ve heard and I don’t want to take things that I read on the internet and take it at face value but according to people that were watching him today he was grabbing at his knee every other second and was having problems moving oh all right I don’t like that because this also a perfect course for him it it would be this would be a very nice spot for if I had any belief that he wasn’t actually injured this is a nice spot to get contrarian with him I I’m just afraid that this is going to end prematurely when he pulls out of the golf tournament right on all right K morawa what do your thoughts here’s the thing about morawa and it’s kind of the answer I always give about kka like those are not two guys that I ever want to play but I do think morawa is going to take too big of a hit in the public perception of his lack of distance that he brings to the table and the more distance that you add to a model the worse it’s going to get he’s fine in my sheet there’s probably going to be and you can tell me what you see on the ownership right now every get doing the mental math 12 13 so that’s about what I would have anticipated give or take within a couple percent like potentially even a little bit lower than that but I’m fine for anybody who wants to consider him like he’s probably okay but I would still rather find a way to construct a little bit differently and just get massively overweight to John ROM yeah his his uh numbers for me anticipated From the Rough don’t look very good long irons you know with they’re okay I guess not as in As Good form historically if you pull like long-term data I’m more recent term um but also had to make it differently for certain players based on liveb and all that stuff that’s where I don’t love the output there but I feel like I’d rather have Klay but I don’t know I feel like you and I are just Believers on in this guy that one day it’s just gonna click again I wonder if he like does he care I just have such a hard time reading that guy 10K sub 10% like he he like John Rah is going to go under round I think because everybody in this area is going to flock towards I don’t think maxom but I think Bron D Shambo and wind clar because of driver dist is what everybody’s going to think and I have no problem with that but I feel like I can’t lay I don’t think I’m into Cam Smith you into Cam Smith at all I do not like cam Smith this week like he’s probably for me one of the bigger Fates on the board too expensive for what we’ve seen I like sure everything looks great at Augusta but we know Augusta is one of the most predictable courses out there that guy knows how to score there he’s done it pretty much the last three wide it’s wide open like I don’t like Cameron Smith at these long is that I I saw Zack mention this in the chat of they’re having like three different tiers of the rough and the players that get really wward with it will end up being the ones that get hurt the most that feels like a cam Smith problem where you have a lack of distance and a lack of accuracy and the potential to go Wayward off the te and already be further back and now in some of the thicker stuff like that feels like force layups out the ass for the most part for him where he’s going to struggle so um he was of any player $9,000 and above I guess my model does not like zotus that’s another thing that my model continues to not like every single week but dude I think we’re on the right side of that fade um I thought his ownership would be a lot higher obviously [ __ ] in the bed at um Quil Hollow doesn’t help but dude like when everybody talks about okay this of course you can kind of you know you got to hit it long hit the long like Wills out Horus has not been long off the T the back injury so those pulling longer term data like you need to look into that I’ve been saying that for a couple weeks or maybe even a couple months and it really hasn’t hurt me I had Augusta sure I guess it did but I don’t can you say predictability he’s only played it twice and he tore it up twice but maybe but his distance is nowhere what it used to be just pulling the numbers from last year’s driving distance to this year and ball speeds down a little bit too but he has gotten more accurate so he’s you know it’s not like he’s losing who he was as a player because now he was hitting more Fairways the iron game still fantastic so yeah what he has going for be so like you asked this question uh earlier and I don’t even know if I gave a real answer to it when I looked at total weighted driving in my model this week it is more distance for all the reasons that we’ve talked about one of the things that I did add a pretty good emphasis on though was off the te on every single course that I could find that had both uh long so that would be 7,4 yards plus that was just a very simple thing that I pulled from fantasy National for that exact metric there and then I also found everything that had thick rough of the this 4 inch plus that I could find and that’s where zalot torus really took a jump in my model he was second overall there so it’s not as if the profile doesn’t have the ability to spike and PGA championships for him at least in his prime pre injury pre-surgery were a really good spot for him because of that distance even with me running my data for two years the distance doesn’t look good in my sheet either like he’s outside of the top 70 of this field with some of these numbers that I’m running like that’s not good does he tear up the memorial or where I’m wondering obviously PJ Championship so he’s been pretty good I think the one thing about this course that’s at least Farmers too would farmers check that box obviously the distance would is a rough considered thick I feel like it every I’d have to go through and see which ones the courses that pulled it I don’t have it on the top of on hand assume Tor Pines checks that box I feel like every week they go there there’s always that Twitter video of dropping the ball we you know you know everybody knows the video I’m talking about also contrarian betters would win over cashes pods are still alive last thing about zotus before we move on yes if we want to use the memorial as a tournament and I don’t have his his memorial history up in front of me I don’t know if you you have that nck I can yeah yeah um 23 he wouldn’t play obviously so 22 T5 21 looks like he did not play would that make sense why would he not play I I don’t know off the top of my head even if we use that fifth place finish there though that’d be it that’d be his only go okay so Jack Nicholas designs in general have a very similar quality to where there’s a lot of strategic nature that comes into play Valhalla is the long version of where there’s a bunch of distance that’s going to matter here but it it goes back to the point that I keep trying to talk about it’s if you’re only looking at this for distance you’re running the model the wrong way and that’s why guys like morawa and zalot Tores that find success at the memorial and can find success at some of those venues like that are very live to be fine here I just think with zalot Tores maybe more so than any other player that we can talk about you are not getting a price discount on him for the form that he is bringing into the mix here like if I’m gonna play a golfer in bad form I’d rather play Justin Thomas if directly comparing the two he’s not in bad form come on it’s I’m 100% yeah and Victor havin for 100 bucks more arguably in that form is he in bad form because he was iron play was fantastic last week he got it together on the weekend to I believe where the metrics got a little bit better I I think with ball striking in general was awesome uh everything off the T fantastic I’ll give you round by round here round one 23rd in approach 19th in distance 35th in ball striking round two 27th distance 16th ball striking round three not great not bad but not great and then Sunday obviously shooting two under in those conditions was fantastic number one player Strokes skin approach number one ball Striker 25th in distance so I’d like to think he’s back and he’s a long iron goddess isn’t he or God I guess God would be the word God is yeah his his long iron play is great I think the other thing with hin that’s worth noting the around the green stuff as bad as it is and it was HIIT and miss last week at times it was bad I think at the beginning of the week and good at the end of the week if I recall exactly how he put it together you can correct me if that is incorrect there Nick but with this having a lot of rough around the green 100% accurate there yeah sucked almost dead last in the field the first two days Strokes hand around the green yeah he was popping in my model as a player that should theoretically be able to turn it around over the weekend and we saw a lot of that with him moving up the leaderboard it’s not a finish that you would want to see with him yet we’re still yet to crack a lot of these top 10 but I think here specifically with there being so much rough around the green it’s going to emphasize his long iron ability so he’s going to have an advantage in in that part of his game and also when you have a lot of rough it’s going to be players that are hacking it out from there like I don’t think it’s as big of a detriment for him when the rough gets really thick in some of these these positions where you have a little bit of green there to where if you can just find the putting surface there’s a skill set there that he’s already going to have an advantage for and if you miss you’re you’re punished like everybody’s going to be punished with the thicker stuff so you can say that a name like Scotty sheffler will be better when it comes to that but how much so are we actually talking because there’s a penalty to come into play the difference with Scotty is Scotty also is going to be great with his long irons he’s going to hit a bunch of greens and regulations so he’s not the prototypical name that you’d want to use for this comparison there but it’s that sort of a build of a golfer that I think can really find success and when havin drifted to 50 to one we’ve reached a point here where all of the downside has already been put into this number it’s the reverse of a lot of these other names that we’re talking about to where all the upside is baked into the price and you’ve lost all the value I I know what I’m getting with Victor hin it’s the same thing I’ve gotten every single time I’ve backed him this entire year the downside is is it’s a losing wager but there’s a difference between 50 to one and the 14 to 18s that we were getting early in the year all right I dig it one guy I love in this price range I don’t think I’m gonna fade Bryson I think I may fade Windam I need to look into that more I like Max H myON yeah for a guy that’s going to be sub 10% I don’t see anything wrong with his game everything out of the rough looks good improve distance every single year like everything about him looks good his ball striking has been on autopilot pretty much since the season started I know we everybody talks to him about majors and everything T10 at the Open Championship T3 at AUST or yeah at Augusta so maybe that’s trending in the right direction but every long iron everything looks good he looks like a good golfer that should like be someone that I expect to finish let’s see price one to you know price 10th I think give or take I think he could finish inside the top five no problem that like when a guy that I’m going to go heavy overweight on I think as of now homo would be that guy if he’s sub 10% that he goes to finish top 10 I think that’s no no brainer like Bryson over him I don’t think that scared like I kind of do want to fade Bryson with all the hype there and all the ownership in the 9k range going to that spot I don’t think I’m gonna fade Bryon but I think I’d sleep at night knowing I why I did it if he does eclipse a 20% ownership range which I think is very in play right now I I’d like to see where that ownership lands before making a decision for all the reasons you talked about the only other name that I’d like to bring up I also like H I think the Des Shambo thing comes down to ownership I’m probably going to be out on Windam Clark yep um I am as well at the moment he dude his iron play has not been that good um pretty much for six weeks yeah what are but he’s still still a great ball Striker so it’s and he’s going to make a lot of putts which is certainly interesting everything out of the rough looks really good too like I don’t know what are your thoughts on walk Neeman I always like Walken I can’t ever find anything wrong with him like I thought he should have played much better at the Masters I think Friday kind of [ __ ] him up right yeah let me pull that up again that day kind of K everybody but so Nick just to really quickly go back he shot six over that day okay so after round one before the wi took a bunch of those guys out of contention my model thought and my model’s been really good at this historically of finding some of these names that it thinks are going to make runs to potentially win the title that are a little bit deeper down the board and and it’s not that Neiman was so far down I want to say he finished day one one under somewhere in that range to where he was yeah he was two under round one he was certainly certainly live certainly live and and uh just everything ball striking top 10 yes and my model thought he was going to be the Mover that was going to potentially win like that was the one value I had on the board Thursday night and it fell apart for him on Friday and I think the industry as a whole and people that play DFS are very fickle specifically when it comes to these live golfers when we’re not seeing them every single week because one bad performance and it’s not even a bad performance from nean he still made the cut it’s just finished de 22nd yes it’s just not what everybody wanted when he was one of the most backed golfers to win the event and a 22nd Place finish isn’t going to bring you home any money there he missed top 20 bets for a bunch of people he missed the outright Wagers I had in tournament matchups on him that lost like there was a lot of things that went wrong it’s just I think this is a really nice bounceback and buyback spot for him where I don’t think there’s going to be a ton of ownership he’s overpriced probably in the eye of the player in the eye of the of the player here it’s a golfer that should be cheaper than he is it’s like this is what he was at the Masters and everybody’s going to think and go well I did this at the Masters he came in 22nd it didn’t win me any money I’m not going back down there again and this is a golfer that historically has not had major championship success that can quickly turn around W Clark had no major championship success and won the US Open Walkin Neeman is a young kid that went over to live and people forgot what an Elite Talent he actually was he is every bit if not more in my eyes of what everybody thought Tom Kim was when when he came out Neeman at 18 years old was putting together performances on the PGA tour like this is a spot where this is a a real high-end golfer with a pedigree that could win major championships and I don’t know when that actually comes to fruition here but he is has played great in some of these Live Events and I don’t think that the average PGA DFS player is quite aware of that and when they were at the Masters it didn’t work out yeah which the field will have a lot of average to below average players because of a million-dollar contest and stuff like that and it’s a major so I think certainly a a sharp play on paper uh let’s go Cameron young think cool cool with them nothing crazy I’m fine with I mean I have like a massive take one way or another I think he’s more or less properly priced I would rather play I’d probably rather move up a couple hundred bucks and get Neiman but like I don’t see a massive difference between him and a lot of those names he’s he’s fine to me the fades in this range would more so be I don’t think there’s going to be ownership around cam Smith but I’m out on cam Smith um I’d like to see where Bryson is and I’m gonna be out on Windam Clark like that’s probably the names there where I’m just not on cool JT then I mean yeah I I’m fine with him I I I thought last week was the week that he was going to put it back together and now my model kind of thinks it’s this week because last week my model didn’t necessarily like him I want to say it graded him 40 something if and he came 21st and now this week it’s grading him 15th so we finally after all this time of Justin Thomas not popping in my model we’re seeing encouraging signs from him all right uh Fitz I don’t know not a sexy name named Tommy Fleetwood 15% ownership is what I have now I think that’ll probably stay just because always like a walking top 15 in Majors what it seems like I don’t love him he didn’t grade that well for me what what did he grade I I I’ll let you answer I I don’t have odds yet but I have my points and everything he’s like 30th so about Who Tommy Fleetwood is safe guy but 15% or more is going to play him I feel like I’d rather roll the dice on Jordan’s be Fleetwood for me is one of those players that we talk about quite frequently where they are quote unquote and this isn’t even quote unquote this is what Tommy Fleetwood is but quote unquote safer plays than they are upside targets and that from a statistical perspective that’s exactly what my model put together with it he’s inside the top 20 overall he’s outside the top 35 for upside he’s inside the top 20 for safety that’s the Tommy Fleetwood profile and the thing is at a certain point I don’t know if it’s at 8700 or not but there is a certain point where there is a value there that was the Tony fow recipe for so long to where and Hideki Matsuyama where they would make those names 7900 and those were the values of these major championships I would argue that fleetwood’s a little bit too expensive where he’s at right now um you’re gonna have to sell me on Jordan Speed here though yeah I don’t uh I just like Jordan Speed I don’t know Fanboy play can I I could say that right there’s no rules do you say F fan boy play I mean his iron just completely disappeared like dude he’s iron the way just find that form like round one he was awesome what happened how does he just lose it I in terms of up and down out the rough like everything I distance that he’s gained I don’t know maybe he is broken broken I don’t know if he’s broken necessarily but he’s erratic off the tea and he is a name that’s coming here for this is the very quiet version of what happens with Rory at a gusta of trying to capture the career Grand Slam maybe that he’s so out of sight out of mind with his game right now that he feels no pressure to win this tournament but there’s still the career Grand Slam on the line for him and that usually historically has not gone well for a lot of these new school players that have tried to get the job done 5% in the 8K Range man I just I don’t know seems like you again I’m playing the player pool as like all right how do I get an edge in the mil maker he kind of checks that box for an uncomfortable play that I could sleep at night knowing I went you know if he’s 5% if I go 10 to 15 I’m not saying go 5x the field on him but I don’t know is everything out like I don’t think he’s going to miss the cut let me give you let me give you an intriguing answer here which would go to your your sentiment that you’re trying to push right now and and as we always say this my heart it’s my heart no but this is and this is not the be all end all of what we’re looking for here but for some of these close decisions we always talk about movement in the market and trying to figure out where things are moving in these directions and he’s priced against some interesting players he’s uh pretty much a pick them against Matthew Fitzpatrick which I’m indifferent either way on Fitzpatrick like I think that’s a fine person to be even against yeah he is a heavy favorite against Hideki I don’t know if that’s withdrawal stuff that’s probably what that is and that could be public money like that scares me a little bit that although I don’t know what I mean I guess spe would be the public darling versus a golfer that just withdrew from a tournament so I I wouldn’t promise if that’s sharper Square I I mean I guess could look on Pinnacle and bookmaker to see where his outright number is trending because that’s probably a very big indicator of where the Shar money’s actually moving on him this guy lights up mirfield Village every single time no matter what type of form he’s in which kind of gets me interested for this just like scramble yourself to even par each day make a little run on Saturday finish inside the top 10 at 5% ownership at that price I could do it it seems like there’s there’s more sex there’s more sex appeal with him in my opinion than Tommy Fleetwood there is also yes tons of burn money away by making that decision too I think I’m out are you out on Dey while we’re on that topic I think I’m out on decky okay and it’s like Sam Burns and Shane Lowry I don’t mind if no one’s going to play he actually graded out pretty well for me I don’t know why and He Who Shall Not Be Named I’m sure I’ll get sucked back in to him at 8300 we’re not going to say his name any thoughts on Hatton theala I think we’re both Ryden DJ right Pat greed I’m hard pass Dustin’s my favorite play in this section um Patty anything with him I I didn’t hate him I I don’t love him but he had enough D I hate him I think he’s [ __ ] well I don’t just as a person we could have a different conversation of what he is I never met him as a person I’ve heard you know we all heard he’s an [ __ ] so I’m not going to say he is because I don’t actually know him I don’t want to judge that way even though I judge Bryson sex life for some reason but that’s just something I got to work out internally I don’t anything with distance just I I think he’s I don’t know Reed has a really safe profile at PGA championships yes he does I see that and he graded inside the top 20 of my model for safety um the upside numbers left a ton to be desired but what did you say the ownership was on him well how about sunj last week too [ __ ] I told you on that one um ownership for Patrick yes like six i’ say less than for sure see that’s that’s why I think he at least has like consideration for playability because all of a sudden at 6% ownership if he gives you a he’s going to finish at like three to 4% there’s no way he’s higher than five I would agree with that and if all of a sudden he gives you that 13th Place finish I think he’s a cheap enough option to wear at $8,000 you can fit him into a build so I’m not iron play there like that’s what I worry about him I just I can’t get data on him so it’s like I don’t know I just remember historically too he wasn’t really a good iron player just graded everything else at the Masters for whatever this is worth He every single day was the biggest fade candidate I had on the board and I got burnt every single day by that and he just kept producing so I I don’t know what that means for this week as we move here to um of course where some of the longer iron play could potentially be a problem he’s 87th in my model from the numbers that I ran from the extra emphasis that I added to the long iron play but I think he’s okay to consider just there’s a there’s definitely a cap ceiling there thoughts on theala everybody’s darling from last week mine included what one airpod did die for those counting at home the left ear’s gone what what ownership do you see on him 10 you you could sell me on him I I think he’s I think he’s intriguing for a handful of reasons lights out iron play fantastic out of rough from what expected and I think I think that’s the case though because I have him Miss a lot of Fairways so for the iron player that he is he should probably be a top guy in proximity out of the rough for having so many cracks at it his good shot percentage was like very staggering in a good way for him inside of my model it had concerns with the overall iron play out of the rough which I guess is a little bit different from how I ran it and that’s what hurt him in the model a little bit but uh the good shot percentage out of the rough was great t myel I look at the gala like 8,100 he could definitely top 10 ownership’s not crazy like I’ve kicked myself so many times for just taking out like these middle range guys that like I just don’t really feel them it’s like they are certainly the pedigree a player that could finish top 10 and they don’t have ownership like simplify the game for myself like I should have some exposure to him in the mme format the the three players in the $8,000 section that have a value inside of my model compared to their DraftKings price would be hat and theala and Dustin Johnson nice so as long as it’s not [ __ ] Tony all right 7K range anybody you don’t Jason day is starting to starting to come around how your pants feel about that one well I mean they’re want to talk about pants and Jason day he has had some wild ensembles that he’s worn like he looks like true he looks like they’re starting to tame it down though I don’t know he looks like the last one he looked like he was straight out of the 1880s or 1920s with the outfit but he’s borderline like MC Hammer with those pants it’s not good I don’t get it I feel like too like didn’t they make more slim fit pants because players said they didn’t want to feel the wind just whipping at their legs all day like and it helped them swing I like we’re going I like outside the box thinkers like I don’t know how much money they’re paying him and if it’s just a money thing to where or how much say he has in outfits that he’s putting together but somebody that is different and doesn’t think the conventional norm and wears the same outfits as everybody else I I like it with Jason day like I I may not love the outfits that he’s wearing and you’re not going to see me caught in them unless malbon wants to pay me which I have reached out numerous times I have we’ll take a sponsor yeah we’re we’re not above selling out no not not at all I mean if like I I’ve tried to have them they don’t contact me and that’s probably where the hate of the clothing comes in more than than anything but um I I think da is fine to consider I assume Ben on is going to be very popular my model really liked him though then I was going to say that’s a fade candidate for me I’ve been playing him all the time but he’s actually starting to hit Fairways too that that could be a problem he’s so putter heavy though dude when he’s not putting well he does not scare me my model like really really liked him I mean he’s a light out long iron player I think out of the rough leaves a little bit to be desired maybe I think he should have been hundreds of dollars more expensive than this and that’s unfortunately where the ownership is going to come into play but look I mean it’s a major championship we can try and fade Chalk in a lot of these directions but a lot of these Majors Chu still comes in here and there like I’m more inclined to be okay to do it with benan than most of the other names that we’ve discussed so far with it what do we think about Brian Harmon and sep straa I am no one know I am out on Harmon there was an upside in my model that it kind of liked if the ownership’s low enough but for Bri no floor for him uh straa straa seems to be a blind spot of my model playing good golf yeah really really good golf holy [ __ ] man he may be one of the best iron players on two over the last month if you run a sample size that small I don’t know if that’s appropriate but I I do think for a major championship if you’re peing in those areas of your game it is an important quality I I I have nothing to say like the long-term metrics inside my model do not like him the short-term stuff will boost them up anybody’s sheet with it I don’t really have a take one way or another because I’ve been extremely strong on some of the Fades recently and I have been wrong and incorrect like at at some point I have to realize that there is a problem with the way that the model is viewing him and not get caught into the same trap over and over again for sure okay some guys that I do like in this range just because we don’t need to talk about everybody um I don’t have thoughts on Taylor gu I don’t know if I’ll play him Cory Connors I think’s fine I think you’re always 7600 he’s like the fleet with to me I feel like rather just pay 7,600 for Cory Connor and assume that I get a very similar outcome than what I get with 8,700 fleetw Nico hoard seeing 1% right now due to back-to-back miscuts one of them being New Orleans I feel like he’s we talked about him at the Masters was a fantastic play there um kind of like him again it’s the same answer as the Masters is you know what you’re signing up for with a player that is extremely volatile right now but he has the distance and the long iron play that you would want to see so he was one of the biggest climbers inside of my sheet for Pure upside for one of those 1% Dart throw sort of names at 7,400 that is The gpp Millionaire Maker real difference making type of an option there yeah one of these guys is going to finish like inside the top 15 maybe even make a run a little bit on Sunday and this low 7K range it happens all the time any thoughts on Russ Henley do you like this course for him I know like to me his iron and not to me statistically his iron play has not been as good but it’s starting to get back there obviously the T10 at Wells Fargo you know everybody says you have to be long there his long arms are just fantastic his game out of the Russ pretty damn good too I feel like Russ is a guy that I could certainly live with here what ownership do you see I don’t think of Russ as a PGA Championship player so I assume the ownership will what what did you say Nick three on Monday again for anybody tuning in late like do not quote us on these ownerships later but like they’re way subject to change but I don’t think he’ll get a lot of love with Adam Scott being the same price I think that’s a fair answer there um I mean at 3% sure Keegan Bradley my model liked Bradley that was one that was one of the names for me like like the the best values removing ownership from the mix were Ben on Cory Connor Keegan Bradley ad shank I am going to say pass on shank oo okay uh 69th overall in my model and that’s for a player that my model has really been liking recently yes it has that’s that’s why that one shocked me yeah just there wasn’t necessarily a specific metric in my sheet that showed much more than a cup maker I don’t know with volatility probably too right a cut maker with volatility and and that’s and that’s the problem of of the profile because um technically at least according to my sheet he has better upside in it but the floor has some question marks to it and the statistical data though is a bunch of 50ths in this field out of 156 players where I don’t necessarily see that like immense upside that I would be looking for of a player that has a set that can pop okay 6,900 and Below give me a couple guys the am of likes we we’ll get out of here um maybe do a couple fives I will let you know points wise Gary Woodland again i’ know I mentioned him a little bit last week I don’t think the guy’s ever going to make a putt but I do believe in him a little bit but he’s his short game has to grade awful for you or with the more heavy rough does it grade better in the B bunkers so his short game graded he’s one of the best players out of the rough with I remember he’s got like that kind of very steep angle of attack which should help by the rough third in my model for rough proximity that goes to your point there he’s also very good out of the Fairway bunkers I think think Woody’s got some life I I think he’s a he is another name we’ve talked about a lot of these recently this is relatively speaking of the names that we’re talking about but very high ceiling compared to a lot of these options that we’re looking at extremely low floor at the right ownership percentage I don’t have a problem with him you think it’s a low floor I I feel like with what do you expect to win 10 Under 12 I think it’s gonna get a little bit easier scoring than I think this is going to be 14 underpar okay so that’s where yeah if it’s like I was kind of telling myself the story it would be around 10 in Woodland shooting close to even maybe has one or two Spike putting rounds which would you know with his ball striking could certainly change the tournament for him I feel like he could be a sneaky guy that finishes inside the top 20 at 0% ownership that just fills out your lineup at 6K flat great player on hard scoring courses great player on hard courses is excelled at PGA championships for like in sure the zoa stuff is good too I don’t know where that tab is but um does he light it up at mirfield I know that’s not zoa but similar type of setup I don’t know off the top of my head I could bring it up and check but 22 cut 21 cut t22 and 2020 if you want to talk about that it could be a t50 no not not anything crazy no I I’m fine with woodlin though you know what you’re signing up for r no ownership and that’s fine um unfortunately and this is where we have to find The Woodlands of the world a lot of the players that my model liked a lot are going to be and I and as I said I don’t have the ownership ownership up in front of me right now but I I can tell you Keith Mitchell is going to be popular Taylor pendri is going to be popular I assume Tom hogi is gonna be popular my model liked all three of those names um it’ll come down Harris English my model never likes Harris English um fair value essentially at where we’re at which he never moves the needle for me for whatever reason like I starting to pump the ball though if I wait driving over the last six months in comparison to doing a year or 24 months his driver pumps up for me I just would rather play Chris Kirk I don’t know what the ownership difference is but Kirk’s not gonna have much and that’s kind kind of where I look at like shank it’s like okay shank’s a potential cut maker with downside Chris Kirk’s probably just a cut maker who with a little bit of UPS side probably if anything yeah that’s that’s the problem that we talk about every single week on this show he has he has flashed at PGA championships though I do like kittama again I think I can go back there what about Poston it’s a very similar completely different way of how he gets it done because you don’t necessarily think of posting at these long courses but a very similar profile inside of my model at least from the upside versus safety answer that I got for Gary Woodland I feel like I’d rather take Woodland then way cheaper I would agree with that anybody else fancier interest here Thomas dietre obviously Keith Mitchell is gonna be popular we don’t need to talk about him Moran I don’t know if I can go back after the disaster he gave me at Augusta I I think dri Jake nap I think no I I still don’t think I trust a short game enough on these hardcoring courses I think I’d rather play D I I kind of like d3e a bit okay I just worried about his iron play there’s going to be red flag marks across the anywhere in this yeah in this price range Taylor pendrith is pushing 10% yeah I think I’m gonna fade that and go to Woodland Lucas Herbert feel like you always just take some sort of action on that guy yeah Mr no irons as well is there is there anybody in the $5,000 section that you even want to talk about I mean I like I will look at Nakajima um I think canaya remember my guy canaya I think he’s he qualified yeah he’s here Austin neot I I I’m afraid is too short off the T Too Short yeah same with E that that’s that’s the answer I was giving for eot there Amano gorillo checks a lot of boxes for me and I can’t figure out why and that’s what we talked about right the one second before air I I guess for me like the three someone like I always like Jordan Smith but yeah I don’t like him in America I don’t think toasty like ah did you see the ultimate did you see the ultimate disrespect that toasty’s one matchup that was out in the space was against uh uh Michael block that’s an easy Hammer B there’s a hammer B Ed minus 225 I mean I know this sounds wild to say like he’s he’s going to win I I don’t even think it’s a lock really I think toasty has the potential to come in last place oh okay but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have upside to his game but not a 225 yeah I gotta want to lay 225 for a golfer that that has absolutely no built-in safety in my model whatsoever it’s just more of a him versus Michael block portion of the answer there although I mean I want nothing to do with Michael block obviously is there anybody that graded W for you in the fives there were there were three um spon no surprisingly surprisingly not um one was Alex SMY I liked his price let me look at him real quick let me pull up his profile decent form I know he’s not really playing events that we would tip our cap and say yeah you’re beating good players but so he would be one uh two two would be and I mean I guess this was even if you’re trying to find a matchup and you want to throw a fifth one out there that I was considering uh Luke list graded well for me there was a matchup against Nick Dunlap I like luk blist I decided not to go to that match up as of right now but I like that one definitely it was very very close in my sheet uh Matt Wallace graded pretty well for me at 5700 I loved Wallace at what event was that that he should have won I shouldn’t have won but that was uh yeah the Byron Yeah by Nelson ah dude I worry that he just is completely inept at hitting a fairway that he is going to get in a lot of trouble missing it by a ton numbers out of the rough look good for me recent data for Mid long irons looks good for me even long-term data looks decent I like him when he’s in good form and he is playing good golf right now 116th in my model and projected total driving so that goes to the answer that you’re talking about of there being conern I’m just very scared about that outside of that it is a lot of that’s why like he’s a guy I like at Augusta and he was a big part of that massive lineup I had back in 2021 or whenever DJ won he was like the The Filling piece that scored enough on Sunday to get me across the finish line but yeah the 5K range is pretty gross again which is kind of where I planted my flag I’m just not going to play Scotty again do you have anybody like if you bring this up I don’t know if you have them ranked out in your sheet right now do you have anybody that’s inside of the top 50 of your model from this part of the section thorb Olson always grades really well for me and I get burned on that every time so I’m not going to give him as an answer um luk list was close 62 Grio was inside the top 50 but again I can’t figure that one out yeah for me it would be SMY list Wallace uh sh Kim was very close if I ran this for upside olison would be right there and there’s olison like here’s the thing about olison I don’t know where the ownership’s going to land the overall profile has like if you look at my model it runs from this color coding of dark blue to Bright red he is either dark blue or bright red in like every single category that I’m looking at this week but I think that’s a good answer for a $5,500 golfer oh I do have one other one other and these grades Top 40 for me and upside EVR my model looked at him also a little bit number one for me in Fairway bunker G percentage dude and he is ball Viking has been fantastic yeah T4 last week at Myrtle Beach that was actually a pretty decent field I really wish Davis Thompson would have won that but got her up crushed do you have thoughts on 64 65 67 to close out good God do you have thoughts on G up no I’m I’m GNA be out on gup that’s probably Fair my model kind of sort of liked him but I probably would rather play EVR no I know he spiked approach but that is such a mixed bag based on what we see from him and was a club down course for him so I want to see it when he actually has to light up driver and Miss Fairways like Matt Wallace misses Fairways it’s interesting some of these guys that are your prototypical long drivers of the ball that do better at these Club down courses there’s it’s almost any of those Davis Thompson’s Cameron young has the same thing that he put Cam Davis I think you were on pretty quickly about that even though I think long course is still like he’s just a superstar yeah yeah he’s he’s different because he is a superstar compared to everybody else yeah well that’s all I got yeah we went an hour and 15 right airpod still alive I don’t know what’s going on with this left one like I Apple needs if you’re listening Apple um Tim Cook trying to make your lineups figure this out man they should they should die at the same time right if they’re properly charged I I have an probably charged they’re I mean here it’s sitting on the cord maybe I overcharge them potentially they just sit there charging all the time and then I open them up on Monday Tuesday or Wednesday whenever we do the shows and that’s it they just sit there the rest of the time because I have an Android phone so I only use these to hook up to my laptop Apple products for me and and maybe this is just my inability to make change in life I still have the iPhone 8 and I’ll unug if it works it works man I’m all about you don’t need a new phone if that’s the problem Nick I will unplug my phone I’ll charge it the entire night I will unplug it I will wake up I will scroll through Twitter for five minutes in the morning and I’ll have 27% battery left okay you need a new phone I take back what I said if it works like that’s not working properly that’s time but they also like had self- admitted that they make batteries to like slowly self-destruct to get you to buy a new phone which Shady America but what are we going to do you know I’m fighting the man trying not to get a new phone at this point no man you need a new phone there’s no doubt about that Victor Perez last guy graded okay yes I he was 62nd for me he would be that next range of players that were borderline top 50 okay he ropes the ball decent and Majors kind of mixed bag but at this price everybody is all right appreciate it uh where else is your work this week you doing any like obviously not the seven deadly sins of Augusta but any like major breakdown like that this week no I’m not gonna have anything special I don’t think you have as many trendy sort of outcomes as you get at the Masters with that being at austa every single year we will be on tomorrow with Roberto over on links and locks I will be uh doing green. daily at Action Network PJ DraftCast I think think we have an earlier time um jump into to wind daily there you can figure out what time I think it’s 4 o’l Pacific time instead of the six o’clock time that we normally air that show and then all my written work for the most part and model will be over at Roto baller love it all right well thank you all for your comments concerns anything else uh hopping in giving us the support we greatly appreciate that check out Underdog actually a ton of good drafts this week so if I I’m going on a golf trip uh starting tomorrow night so one hopefully I can get my mme pulled down by then before this I become a hot mess on the golf course with a lot of friends and everything like that but um I don’t know where I was going with that where was I going with that I don’t know um Underdog yes Underdog so yeah I will hopefully try to post a draft maybe Wednesday night or something like that while I’m sitting around a campfire or whatever we’re doing that night before tea off on Thursday morning but thank you guys so much and good luck to everybody this week yep code bgp good good call
