Valhalla Golf Club is made for long hitters to succeed in this weekend’s PGA Championship, which make players like Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka enticing bets to take home the Wanamaker Trophy. #GolfChannel #PGAChampionship #JonRahm #BrooksKoepka
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Bet on long hitters like Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka in PGA Champ. | Going For The Green | Golf Channel
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it’s officially the second major of the season so I would like to welcome you to going for the green I’m Brad Thomas here with Denny Carter and we’re here to give you our Best Bets and DFS plays for the PGA Championship Denny we’re playing at Valhalla Jack Nicholas designed coarse long lean and mean any initial thoughts to what to expect or what kind of golfer we should be targeting this week I mean we talked a little bit uh before the show about the profile of the golfer who wins here and they are bombers and it is as simple as that uh and I think we’re going to highlight a lot of bombers in this segment here um there’s it’s really hard to Envision a guy with average or below average distance off the te uh winning here or even finishing high in you know top 10 top 15 uh so I we we have to kind of focus on that at the cost of other of other factors unfortunately I don’t love it I don’t love it I I I like a course that challenges every part of the game doesn’t just see who can who can bomit the furthest but that’s what we have that’s what we’re going to go with yeah uh to piggyback on that I kind of feel it uh segments the good golfers and the bad golfers right if you have high uh Club head speed ball speed and you’re a bomber you’re generally a better golfer because that’s how golf is design you hit it further you’re GNA have closer approaches to the green um I I want to pull two quotes before I get into the first golfer that I like because I thought these were really important and really telling for this tournament so JT said uh you just hit a driver really far and really straight you hit your irons well and that seems to be the theme Here Max hom said you need to drive the ball well and hit your mid to Long Islands really good it feels like the new stock of a PGA Championship you said that right like all the PGA Championship courses have pretty much been this bombers course or guys who just hit it really long and great with their long irons uh so I’m gonna go with the guy uh Mr John ROM as my Top Bet might be more price driven than anything I feel like John ROM went to live and then we forgot John ROM exists at least in the betting market and why I say that is because had this been last year John ROM’s price would have been closer to 12 to1 maybe 8 to1 yes it did help that Rory Maly won back to back events and Scotty shef was playing insane so both of them driving the price down bringing ROM’s price up but I cannot deny John Ron John Ron Major Champion he’s really long off the te he’s not playing bad golf on Liv either right like you think about uh his Liv events he’s got a couple top 10 top threes a lot of top fives and we know it’s Liv but let’s be honest Liv is really topheavy uh people want to give it Flack for its early days of bad golfers going to play because they couldn’t cut it on the PGA tour those days are done cam Smith John ROM Bryson D Shambo these are major Champions playing on live who are still playing at the top of their game also want to add one more tidbit John ROM coming off a really bad Master’s performance we very rarely see him play really poorly and backto back Majors do you have any love for the Spaniard here you know the the length checks out and like you know he’s you can’t you can’t cross him off your list for DFS purposes he’s the third highest price golfer in this field on DraftKings uh I I have him projected for much lower roster ship than Scotty sheffler and Rory mroy the only two golfers who are above him I do think he could kind of get lost in the weeds after his poor Master showing and um that’s that’s when you pounced generally in DFS tournaments yeah I like that uh I I’m gonna be honest I haven’t done this yet since we’ve been doing going for the green I do not like your top selection he’s actually on my Fades list yeah so just tell me what what I’m doing wrong why I don’t like will zotus and what you like about him yeah no and I get it uh this is somewhat based on ship percentage I’m guessing zotus will be very low rostered here he missed the cut at the Zur classic he lost Strokes in nearly every category at the Wells Fargo event and I’m here to tell you you gotta play him this week no you don’t you don’t have to but I I am I’m gonna play him more than the field uh you know no one has played long courses better than zalot torus over the past three seasons he’s top 20 in driving accuracy not so much in distance he’s not super long I know we just said bombers course and whatnot I don’t think that he can contend to win this thing but I think that the course fits his game when it’s good okay he puts it in play he plays tough courses well and he said that he said look I don’t like birdie fests I like grind grind fests okay I like to get in there I like to get dirty I like to have to chip up and down get up and down for par I don’t I don’t want everything to be a birdie or an eagle and that’s what you’re gonna will hey that’s what you have here buddy okay this is this is it so you’re going to have to get that Grind game going I think he can do it and again we’re talking about very very low roster ship because obviously he’s played terribly lately yeah that’s kind of the difference right between betting and playing DFS you want to find those Diamonds in the Rough and for me from a betting perspective I have to trust my model because I’m either winning my bet or I’m not winning my bet will zot Horus can go out there and play like he played at the at the Players Championship and missing the cut or he can play like he played at ol Palmer and I use those two courses because those are two hard difficult courses and that’s pretty much what we’ll see this week um I want to get into another guy and it seems like Liv might be the theme for me on this show I’m going with Brooks Kea to win and I will be completely honest I got Brooks Keat 20 to1 and then when we were sending in our notes to the producer he was at 15 to1 well good news he’s back up to 18 to1 wherever you shop your lines good better shop lines it’s an important nugget I want to throw out there but Brooks coming off a win in his last start what that three golfers in the field coming off wins in their last start and that being Scotty sheffler uh Rory Maloy and Brooks Kea we talked about it looked like Brooks was kind of gaining a little momentum uh heading into the Masters and then he went before that he played horrible at LIV Miami but then he went and played at uh live golf tournament at the gra T9 and then won Liv Singapore but what I’m really excited about Liv Singapore what he did well he killed it on approach that’s backto back events where he was just Dynamite with his irons we know he’s long off the team and then when we look at a stat profile one thing we want to say about Brooks is his putting was the one that was kind of bothering him the most well he gained a whopping four strokes to the field putting in his win at Liv Singapore we know Brooks gets up for Majors we know Brooks has that dog in him to just play these really long lean mean fast courses so at this price I I feel like it’s it’s almost better than betting most of the guys around him it’s kind of hard to argue when you have uh the defending Champion or or a pass major winner and you want to compare his price to a guy like Xander Schley who just sat there and watched Rory malroy try to set a course record and he put up zero bite in their last event at Quail Hollow yeah give me Brooks kka yeah Xander Xander we’re looking into where the dog is in Xander we’re not we’re not sure but yeah I mean look hey Brooks is gonna be trying this week this is what we know we can’t Bank on that every week on on the live tour he’s going to be trying he’s going to be work working hard here let let me read you just real quick his his last five rounds on live tour uh he shot 66 66 66 and then 64 and then 67 so we are talking about a guy who’s coming in here with great form he’s 10,800 on DraftKings no reason to fade him there yeah um there’s a guy on your list in Mr TL Hatton who I really really really wanted to bet if I didn’t have I bet five golfers to win outright if four of them weren’t live golfers I probably would have bet him as well I feel like he’s another guy who can fit the mode of this golf course but in a different way and I don’t want to take your points but I wanted to highlight this at this golf course if you hit the ball far enough far enough I think it makes it easier if you miss the Fairway and why I say that is because there’s a big difference of hitting a four iron out of thick rough than hitting maybe a gap wedge or even as long as a seven iron out of the thick rough that’s right and that’s what Hatton has going for him here um he’s he’s sneaky long in much longer than I thought when I looked into the metrics uh you know he was third place at the Masters top 10 in Strokes gained among all pro golfers on All Pro tours since the start of 2024 I know that that’s a that’s a a large universe and includes some some kind of iffy names but he has played well he has play he played well in the PGA Tour and then when he defected to to live he has continued to play well he’s first in total driving in this field and total driving means it’s a combination of accuracy off the tea and distance Okay so so you kind of get a good a good picture into how good a guy is off the te Hatton is great he’s great with his long irons a good club head speed I know that sounds a little wonky but it is something that I’m paying attention to so he comes you know good form 88,200 uh on DraftKings I do think that we are going to see some roster ship there okay like I he’s in a PL he’s in a spot in the pricing where I think people are going to flock to him a little bit so be careful watch for roster ship percentages as the you know into Wednesday and into Wednesday night be careful but I do really like the way he fits this course yeah uh give me a little bit of shares on TL Hatton this week I’m gonna talk about Mr Dean burer as my long shot so to win the tournament he’s like 150 to1 and I don’t know if he quite had the entire bag to win it and I’ll scratch my head because in confusion like uh I want to talk myself into maybe PR placing a little small bet on him to win out right but the top 20 price is what what is blowing my mind uh four to one right you can put a small bet on that and still return pretty big yield Dean berer Long off the tea and playing really really good golf like when we look at these stat profiles and we look at these metrics whenever there’s positive signs in almost every single category you want to go see what their price is for markets like top 40 top 20 outright because if those are big numbers more times out out of 10 you’re going to actually cash and furthermore he has two wins on the DP World Tour in joelberg and the South African Open Championship he also won live golf Miami which was one of the better live tournament finishes we’ve seen in quite some time his approach numbers great off the team numers great and guess what Dean berer has always done this he’s put well at least he’s done this this year which is more important than anything I know this is going to be a really tough task for for him to to win the tournament but there’s always those guys those really long guys off the team who no one really thinks about they’re not actually in contention but yet you see them finish T10 T14 at the end of a major and I think burer can be one of those guys I’m with you I think the burer kind of gets lost in the shuffle of Liv tour because like you mentioned a few minutes ago you have so many superstars on Liv right Dean burm not a household name is what I’m saying uh but he is crazy long off the tea if you look at his stats before he defected to live always among the top in in driving distance in carrying the ball off the tea uh and in club heads speed and that so that’s what you’re looking for here you’re looking for a guy who’s like you said going to have a gap wedge into the green when other guys are hitting eight iron and I think that’s what you have with burm will his accuracy issues off the te you know wreak havoc possibly but I I do think in DFS he makes sense because guess what nobody is playing berm no nobody uh let’s talk about another non-household name a long guy off the tea that you like and Chris got her up yeah you know sometimes I I outsmart myself you know and in uh in trying to find the perfect golfer for the for the right course and the right week and all this stuff and I’m pouring over metrics and spreadsheets I’m up to my eyeballs and then I I the tournament starts and the guys who have been playing well continue to play well and I say Denny I should have simply played the guys who are playing well and that’s what you have with Chris GD up here uh tied for 11th at the Zur classic 24th at Byron Nelson event uh he won last week at the Myrtle Beach Classic uh at 125 miles an hour he has the highest club club head speed on the PGA tour I know I keep coming back to that but I do think it’s important here uh he’s seventh in driving distance not super accurate but here’s the thing that that really uh kind of brought it home for me is that over the past 16 rounds he’s seventh in Strokes gained around the green so if he’s you know having trouble hitting the Green in regulation he can get up and down he’s the kind of guy who can save par and that gives me confidence that he can make the cut and he can be a solid DFS option who again we’re talking about very minimal I’m guessing sub 5% roster ship in DraftKings tournaments yeah absolutely believe it I made a little FAA there a little error there are four golfers coming off wins in their last starts with gup there um if you look at his stat profile there’s one thing that I really like about him his green in regulation to the field 44th in the field um it’s green which means it’s good it’s better than more than half the field hit Fairways or hit it long and hit the green and hope for a two putt because here like last week par can be your friend on a lot of holes uh Denny I’m GNA put you on the spot before we go yeah I just want to ask you one question because I don’t think I’ve got this from you who is going to win the PGA Championship this year I mean how do you not say Scotty cheffer you know I he just it’s just that if if he had some sort of weakness that I could point to I would say well he this will probably you know he’ll probably come up short because of this but he’s great around the greens he’s great on the greens right now okay right now he’s a he’s a machine from te green I I just I can’t poke a hole in it I’m I’ll go with Scotty yeah Scotty’s got to be the overwhelming favorite I’m gonna go with Rory malroy but I cannot play that price for a guy to win three straight events but that’s all I have to say about that Denny as always this has been fun I am Brad Thomas this is Denny Carter make sure you check out nbcsports.com for more help with your Wagers thanks for tuning in to going for the green take care
