Pat Mayo and Tyler Tamboline discuss their favorite 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Bets, DFS picks, debate the best roster construction for the week and project ownership for DFS guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Plus, they review the DFS Ownership and pivot plays.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
00:54 1st Thoughts on Pricing
6:33 Underdog Draft
13:22 Weather
18:46 Bets
22:55 One and Done
29:08 DraftKings/Lineups
40:14 AM/PM
54:15 PM/AM
1:06:13 H2H DK Draft
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if you can get yourself comfortable with two or three guys or even a pool of guys between 67 and 71 your lineups are going to be so much different than everyone else’s because everyone is just falling in that 73 to 76 range and taking three two or three four four spots there that’s why we talked about the strategy wise lumping them all together is different than everybody else is making a decision between them and then the secondary or it could be the first and that’s the secondary would be just skipping that range altogether skipping a a range of guys so 73 to 77 Doug gim down to whoever that’s where you can get different and you’re naturally then you can do kind of whatever you want up top for the most part ENT of experience Batman experience Batman [Music] experience Batman experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy use Co Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now get yourself a deposit match of up to $100 smash the like sub to the channel because we’re breaking down the CJ cup Byron Nelson DraftKings picks we’ll get into the oneandone the weather for the week which has been a pretty hot topic so far and that’s really going to be it and the final bets I suppose roster construction all that fun stuff tambo’s back in studio we made it got through it all I still need those window coverings I didn’t win enough to afford those and I didn’t get to that yet with the move but it was a a long move lots of packing un organizing and now good to go so we just had the windows replaced in half of our house for the last 2 days not fun I was going to say not a fun time house is freezing oh yeah I bet yeah that’s the thing when you’re uh doing anything like that it’s always it just puts you out a little bit and it throws you off your your normal routine so now is the same for me I’m just getting back into the swing of things that I need to win too to be able to so I use all the winnings from earlier on in the season to pay for like half of the windows now I need to win some more so I can pay for the rest of it we got more we got lots of good stuff coming up this week I know it’s not everybody’s favorite but it’s still a lot of money to be made good contests out there big money up top and then we got a lot of other stuff coming up with the Wells Fargo the PGA Championship our Canadian open we got Memorial TR open just tons of good events coming up so should be a good run here yeah next eight weeks and don’t forget Colonial Colonials just sandwiched in there one of my favorite tournaments of the year I do think that’s where Tom hogi gets his win okay so not this week when everybody’s on him well I’m hoping not cuz I’m not on them okay so I’m hoping this doesn’t end up being the weak as someone who just invested and dumped all his money and basically sold short on Tom hogy and it just didn’t work and everyone else gets to reap all the benefits of it that’d be a lot of fun yeah that could happen’ be like the guy who bought all the Bitcoin at 80,000 then sold her sold it all at 35,000 and then it went back up to like 880,000 yes that’s how I’m going to feel with Tom hogi that’s the people that did not make money on bitcoin that’s exactly right but no but according to the internet everyone made money on bitcoin everyone’s a millionaire now yeah so watch out for that let’s jump into this Underdog draft me and you will go register right now uh the p classic is up under drafts on Underdog right now and let’s see we got to wait for three people to jump in with us so we’ll jump back to that once that is filled I do want to talk about the DraftKings landscape a little bit and we’ll obviously get into more in depth on that you can always hit the time codes for how rosters are going to play themselves out but if you just start your team with spe and day or spe and sunj day and sunj I feel like you can take whoever else you want I I think so as well I think it’s going to be S up top we know everybody’s going to go and then from from down from there I think it’s really just sort of uh you know 10 to 15% ranges and you can just pick your spots it doesn’t seem it’s weird because like the three NES is going to be the build this week that most people go to that leaves you with like 7,100 bucks left but there doesn’t seem to be anyone around 7,100 bucks that’s getting a ton of ownership I don’t it’s actually it’s a rare situation where because they piled a bunch of guys into the 6K range it actually feels more like in the sevens it’s just going to be 5 to 12 per centers so you can get away with that like those you know the mid-range is sort of in that 8K um other 9k guys like the secondaries but to your point two to three 9k guys is going to be the start of many rosters on DraftKings this week what do you think speed comes in at I’ll say 18 I guess with Will out that no one really wants to play days so they’ll find that money I just think get all piles on to sewoo I think he gets up there quite a ways but I think what everyone this happens all the time it’s been said for every week it was the Scotty week all the other week weeks people keep saying this stuff it’s like it just happens the guy at the top gets owned no matter what and especially when there’s enough conversation like you said it’s not really congregated down down low but there’s a ton of guys you hear people talking about right now in this bottom range so everyone has their guys it gets spread out there and then from there it sets up where uh they just end up getting up to spe and then you hear the talk of you and I just right now saying we know everyone’s going 2 to 39K guys so that piles more people onto it as well oh what do you know third oh you got third pick in the draft my best pick ever I have fifth Pi fifth pick in the draft this time around do you have any sort of strategy for these drafts on Underdog once again code mayo and the best Ball Mania 5 is up right now as well for NFL season 1.5 million to first place everyone inside the top 40 gets at least 50k it’s a nice flat payout I like that love that actually it looks amazing and uh just one thought on the strategy stuff you just mentioned that’s so I was looking at it really quick there is we’ll get to the weather obviously but this being you know with the contest the way it sets up like what what are you doing for day one here when it looks like there’s a ton of rain either overnight or first thing into the morning especially it looks like for sure in the morning and then what’s it going to be like that’s when the wind kind of dies out is it going to come back lift clean in place and then guys going out first thing just get to tea off on this place or what well I don’t think that they can change it to lift clean in place it would have to be put in place before the round if that was going to happen I think they will because it looks like the rain starts well before so if that’s the case like I think that the just looking at the weather and we’ll dig a little bit deeper into that in a moment it all depends on if there’s a delay or not so if the am guys have to go out and play in this like sprinkle of rain as long as like they don’t get stuck in the hard stuff like that’s fine but I do think that the PM am seems to I wouldn’t say a distinct Advantage but it seems like the win that they’re going to be playing in on Friday morning is a little bit lower and the wind is either neutral and then no rain on Thursday so I just want whoever’s playing in the afternoon on Thursday but if there’s a delay then it could be all the am guys it went SEIU and norin so I’m going to take a PM guy and start with Jordan spe you’re going to take Jordan spe with your first pick I’m going to take some PM guys as well there doesn’t seem to be a ton here where did you find where is so we got minwoo Adam Scott sewo are all in the PM as is Ben Anne and Steven Jagger and Adam shank so that’s kind of like the the spot where I want to go to here uh I’ll take Ben Anne with my first pick since I’m not betting him so I might as well Pile in on him here on first round underdog hopefully it works out well outside of norin it feels like a lot of the chalk is also in the PM like the seaw the shanks the uh stevenh Jaggers the Davis Thompsons if he gets up there Bo Hustlers like some of those guys so it is interesting to see when we get to those lineup builds later what that what that ends up turning into but so at the swing after I took Ben an it went Adam shank and then Keith Mitchell I took minwu Lee I like him this week just especially because you have to think about the underdog drafts as like a showdown contest right because it’s just Thursday and well minwoo maybe he ends up winning this week I know that Jeff bet on him and he was trying to sell me on it and I thought it was a pretty good sell job to be perfectly honest I’m still trying to consider what I’m going to do at the top of my card if I’m going to do anything at all but for a single day round as long as minwoo brings his Putter and starts putting hot like you have three holes where you can make eagle and two potentially drivable power fours like that is the ultimate minwoo setup I do like that for sure and I also just realized too Jordan speed has the AMT time oh so I’m actually switching my strategy and I’m yeah I’m going to go with that and hope for the the lift clean in place on that so I was wondering why I couldn’t find him here I had it flipped when I first looked at it and it was SEI wo that I was looking at so uh SEI wo was in the PM so Jason day finally goes Jagger I got day be to start you got da be to start and they’re both am right yeah yeah I I think that that’s what I’ll end up doing DraftKings wise with those guys just build some am am PM Stacks with those two as the leads cuz sunj is in that range too right uh sunj is also AMS yeah so so is MAV McNeely I’m fine passing on mad mcney I’m gonna take him well you’re doing the am stack so of course you’re going to do it yeah it makes more sense for me right now but I just mean in general I don’t love Mt mcney this week yeah he’s more of like a guy if I land there I think a lot of people feel that way though and at 8200 we’ll get to that when we build later on DraftKings but for this it’s just another am guy that I’m taking there so I was going to take D Tree but D Tree just went I think I’m just going to take just bite the bullet take KH Lee let do it K Lee third round pick he lost seven strokes between putting and chipping last year at this course and absolutely lit it up ball striking it’s his spot man it is a spot you don’t see it many times where that happens so so it’s back to me oh Novak is available as a part of the PM I bet Novak so I’ll take Novak team is going to be uh odd not really filled with the highest end guys I need to figure out who I’m going here if this gets taken off so some other PM guys you can look at the Am side I’ll look at the PM side of it so other guys that I’m considering when it comes back around to me if they’re still there I’m gonna take Justin lower okay very popular this week Jake naap is on my radar Kevin TW your dad’s guy yeah he’s in the pool this week I like him playing some good golf right now what did he just do I miss I mean obviously between the move and everything else that was going on was it with one the team events or what where did I see him up the board he was third in Puerto Rico that’s what it was he played in the final group yes that’s what it was I knew I was watching something there in between the some up there so Ryan Fox is a part of this PM wave I will be taking him as well when it gets back to my pick that I need to figure out one final player to throw into this too bad Kevin Yu wasn’t a part of this wave I would love that but I’ll probably you know I’ll probably take lonto Griffin who I’m pretty big on this week did you get pulled yeah he’s off the board who uh you Kevin yeah he just went him and Sheamus he and Sheamus power just went as the turn you took lower lower like Matty Schmid he’s he’s in the morning is he still on the board here I would have guessed I mean he’s rating pretty highly DraftKings wise for ownership I would guess that he’s already gone yeah okay so what about my guy geez queue up Ryan Fox here oh you’re on the clock CT pan just went I got to figure out a guy here when’s uh t pendrith or Davis Thompson okay pendrith that works pendrith yeah I saw he rided out really well in your guy Le’s course fit rankings yeah he does this week he looks solid and he was uh the Canadians by the way this is the week you know lions tigers bears oh my it’s like Canadians Koreans Australians oh my it’s like all those groups that you’re seeing that everyone are sort of leaning towards this is a uh you know week last week that we had I know it wasn’t much for everybody watching that but the Canadians really up there dad was hyped for the Canadians at the top of the board you know he oh this these two dudes and these two they were all finding their way up it didn’t work out in the end but they were all sort of in the mix so to speak going into it see your dad is like the TSN viewer like he’s the guy who wants to see where the Canadians are at in the field even if they’re nowhere near the tops yeah he’s a he’s a pme viewer as well oh there we go watching all the shows shout out tambo’s Dad yeah he loves it so it’s good but uh he’s way down in the one and done he’s not happy about that so sucks CU then the Christmas present is not worth as much right the it was worth the EXP experience in the fun but he not paying off the way he wants it to and he’s competitive so he’s trying to get after it he was going to go Kevin U this week based on your research video but then he decided uh to switch it up and take my guy sunj M okay well probably a week coming off a win can sunjay make it two in a row that’s the thing I took Korea I took Ryan Fox with my fifth pick and then I took lonto to finish it off uh so that’s my squad Ann Lee Lee Novak Fox and lonto I had to take a rushed pick but I made sure it was am still Ben Griffin I don’t mind him anyway but I just that’s who I had to take at the end there so I got him in okay so that that’s the squad that what’s your overall team um where do I Jordan spe day McNeely lower Justin L lower low low lower pendrith and Griffin okay H Peter Quest ends up going with the penultimate pick in this draft I actually thought he would have went higher maybe that is sort of indic could of of maybe we’re in a little bit too biger too small of a bubble here where people love custy Pete yeah I think it might be talked up a little bit too much as well what’s I forget what his price is now 7500 bucks yeah and uh I I still have coming in sub 10 we’ll see what people think when we actually get there but I think right around 10 is probably yeah it just it’s one thing where people you can’t play him he’s a worst he’s seven or eight% off like it’s not there’s Kevin use probably very similar to him uh lower who we just talked about pendrith Sig there’s all gim there’s a bunch of dudes in there that are going to be the same as him so if you like him just play him it’s you know people say people are saying he sucks because of ownership and it’s you know that’s not really I don’t see it I just don’t see that ownership that everybody else says they see all right let’s talk about the weather uh you we hit on it a little bit and trying to divvy it up into waves right now so Thursday rain coming in the morning you’re going to have what probably a total of it says at 9:00 a.m. and 10: a.m. there’s going to be a combined 2.6 Ines of rain so they’re probably not going to be playing through that and if it’s thunderstorms and they’re definely not going to be on the course so I would expect delays anyway I think so but and and we know that the PGA Tour does not have a very good track record of getting in entire round so the PM guys might get pushed to the am and have to play I don’t know 23 24 holes on Friday and I don’t know if that’s going to kick it back because it does look like there’s a little bit of rain on Friday morning but nothing too serious but to look at the overall weather like it’s a ton of wind in the morning like consistent 134 Gus to 25 when we get to the afternoon on Thursday it’s going to be 8 7 Gus up to 12 15 something like that so A Better draw for anyone who gets to play in the afternoon in these softer conditions less wind that seems like sort of the ultimate recipe to go score then you have Friday morning where it’s going to be 8 7 even if there is a little bit of rain with gust up to 1650 and then in the afternoon it’s going to be consistently 10 to 13 with gusts up to 16 to 20 so it does seem like the afternoon on Friday is going to going to be a little bit worse as well so just based on this and again if they don’t play at all during the morning on Thursday then it completely flips right I think if there’s if there’s a delay I actually prefer amm to everything you just said and the reason would be is I think it would be announced and possible that they come out with lift clean in place if there’s going to be 3 inches of rain or whatever it looks like if not who cares it’s still you’re coming out in a little bit better temperatures wetter softer conditions I think they still get the rounded I know we’re talking about the PGA here so sometimes that can be tough but let’s say they get the round in the next morning it’s not about like the rain and that but like the temps are way colder versus the afternoon like 68 versus 81 79 like it’s good temps in the afternoon there’s not really much rain Friday afternoon or or sorry wind it’s like 8 to 9 to 10 miles per hour gusts are 7 to 14 this is standard Texas stuff it’s not anything too crazy and so while I typically prefer P PM am I think if there’s that delay that we expect and could happen I actually wouldn’t mind some of the am I and I know every week people say oh you guys always just pick a you always do all the waves like it’s there’s literally not much else you can do with correlation when it comes to golf you don’t want to just play six bad Putters and hope they all putt good on the same week you can play six ball Striker shout out to our guy razza things like that but I think weather is just one thing that well it’s not overrated or underrated I should say where people say like oh they’re not on it enough I just think it’s one angle that you can take and attack with good reasoning that you can actually put behind it which we’ve just done here some rain overnight into Saturday Saturday actually looks quite good in terms of wind and temperature so a lot of scoring on Saturday would expect if you’re playing on Underdog you might want to go with the lower pickham plays on Saturday because we know this is one of the easiest courses on tour anyway and then Sunday there’s rain winds up to 28 miles per hour it looks like it could just get crunched I I hope this doesn’t go into Monday because Monday is even worse for wind like wind G up to like 36 and rain we got to get these tournaments over with especially well you mentioned like all the tournaments that are coming up there’s a signature although most of these guys not playing in a signature event next week that’s true but there is another one next week too it’s the Myrtle Beach it’s the alternate event that what did it used to Myrtle Beach Classic or something it’s called yeah I forget what it used to be but this one now I don’t know we’ll see how it goes just gonna be another it’s gonna be like this tournament but spe and day will be playing at qua Hollow and the rest of these guys will be playing in Myrtle Beach which is funny about the you know the setup I know all these guys got to get their reps in and have a chance to get their cards and all that but it’s like what you know this week’s next week’s alternate event is this week’s featured event it’s just you know pretty standard stuff now with the PGA but it’s the way it has to be well this got kind of ruined in a weird way because the actually did attract a lot of good names to the Byron Els in the past few years since it moved to Craig Ranch because it was the week before the PGA Championship so Scotty would play Hideki would play you see that Rory’s trying to play every week before the majors this season uh that’s why he ended up playing Valero before the Masters but you take that out of the equation then there’s absolutely no reason to show up to this event yes yeah we you know I think uh is the RB we see Canadian open like that this year too I think I’m pretty sure we got squeezed on that one as well I said we are our homeland tournament but it’s going to be the way it is right now with the way they’re moving things around and these certain Signature Events and all that we’ll see if it changes in the future but for now you mention it these these events are going to be ones that gets get crunched the Canadian open should be fine I don’t know if there’s a full commitment list as of yet but it seems like a lot of the topend International Players end up playing the Canadian open anyway like Rory’s been playing it basically every single year Lowry Fleetwood Hatton used to play it obviously he’s no longer invited to be playing in the Canadian open this time around but the fields have actually been pretty good yeah I that year was awesome remember we had like JT I know F was in the mix JT Rory burs feno and then the rest of the guys were right behind them as well so we kind of had 8 to 10 guys that were really solid and it was the one time we ended up getting the 8 to 10 guys sort of six se six or seven of them up at the top of the board so hopefully we can get something like that again but when we get that I don’t mind it it’s when we get all the randoms that are out it happened on Liv last week everyone was sort of [ __ ] on the leaderboard with Brendan steel winning it and I was like if did you see the people that won the events before Scotty went full dominant mode like it was the same [ __ ] on the PGA tour so it it’s just you know tough right now but we got to deal with what we got let’s talk about the bets I was going to say the final bets but obviously I have not finalized anything as of yet I have the bets that are in I’ll have all of the final stuff in the newsletter this evening along with a Thursday play for Underdog fantasy the one that I gave out on the show yesterday was dead I don’t know 40 minutes after I released the show in will zures W deed I’m probably end up going spe higher 67 total and Jason day lower than 5 and a half birdies I’m guessing that’s what it’s going to be because those ones really did stick out to me yeah I saw spe higher Bogies too that was I mean that’s what he does he’s going to make birdies he’s going to make Bogies but it feels like it’s always good because then I always you know I love Underdog for this I I don’t love the 68 and a half and 69 trying to Peg that as much as I’m like this guy is going to make two or three bogey so if it’s one and a half or two and a half I just love that setup because it’s so it’s you know he can make seven birdies he can still make three bogeys and then he comes in at the four under and you’re happy and you still win your your side of it so so here’s what I got I got five so far I only got three below actually I have seven in and three of them are below 100 to one so I have shank at 55 Kevin you at 80 to1 Ryan Fox at 90 to one and I got some bombs I got Novak and toasty 110 to1 a piece lonto 175 to1 with eight places Ryan brem 250 to1 with eight places and that’s what I’m doing live Singapore cam Smith 12 to1 and for the oneand DS this week I got sewo Jeff has shank and cus took Jason day I think he just saw Jason day was playing so he’s like I like his pants and his cigarette pack vests so I’ll take him man we should all chip in and get cuss the vest oh my God it’s like 250 but it’s it’s 250 I think it was serious who the hell is buying that I bet you a lot of people like as a g like has a gag gift that’s pretty expensive it is but it would be awesome and I think he would like it we would love it I think cus would rock that vest and like it so that that’s a thought that we can get him that we should get him that for the President’s Cup and he can wear it around in Mark he look Pat’s marking that down he’s a great idea we got to have that yeah well we’re gonna I mean Jason day is gonna be there he can just dress up as J you know what Jason day might not be there for the President’s Cup team he’s in bad this year until he does something this week just because and maybe that’s the whole thing with this course it’s we’ve seen this a few times where valbar was like this as well where you just have repeat Champions Casey wins twice Burns wins twice maybe K Lee wins twice and Jason day wins twice at the Bunny Ranch yeah we’ll see what do you want to do for the oneand done or do you have bets in that you want to sell me on no I want you to sell me on Ryan Bram as a besides the odds what was your Ryan brem take that I missed I listen he was what top three last week he had a very good chance of winning that team event and I I think you can kind of slice this up one of two ways I do think that you don’t necessarily need to have a ton of driving distance at this course but it doesn’t hurt right yeah it makes the eagle chances a lot higher he’s someone he’s W on the PGA tour it was at a alternate event it was like two years ago but if you just try to isolate something like you talk about correlation something like bombers he’s coming in with pretty good form uh he can run a hot putter every now and then that if you can just correlate the driving distance with the putting then he’s going to be not necessarily in the mix it’s more for the eight places but we seen crazy iier things happen this year than someone who’s already won on the PGA tour winning again yeah we I I’d be fine with it I think that’s fine I think the other angle of it is obviously for Showdown and DraftKings and underdog if you can get some but sometimes a guy like him won’t pop up there for an option so it’s just one of those things you have to monitor and look at but there’s other ways to play them still and get action on them so okay I don’t have anything else I I have um my pick this week was between norin and day for one and done yeah trying to use it up I think I’m just gonna use norin but I think I would guess that he or SEI wo will be the most popular pick I think for sure sewo but noren’s not far behind him but I don’t know when else am I using Alex noren and this kind of feels like a spot I’d want to use him so didn’t love the betting odds and so that would be a way to do it but other than that day probably is the other guy I was thinking of using there I think shank will be pretty popular as a selection just down the board a little bit Adam Scott might be pretty popular as well CU where else are you really going to use Adam Scott I I don’t know what to do hogi H as well will be up there Tom Kim do you think I’m going to take McKenzie Hughes I like mac Hughes this week so this was going to circle back to what I wanted to do with the betting card so I do have a 30% boost at my disposal at bet 365 right now so I can take KH Le up to like 77 to one which I was thinking about doing because there’s a couple guys that I do want to bet like seu I want to bet sewu he’s the betting favorite now in this tournament which is crazy to think about he and spe have exactly the same odds so I can take him up to like 22 I don’t know if I want to bet on sewo at 22 to1 I don’t want to bet on Ben an at 28 to1 hogi I guess I could get back up to like 35 to1 but eh so it’s between like Mino was kind of up there but I don’t love his odds either like I just don’t think these guys I I don’t want to back these guys even though it is a weaker tournament in the 20s I just don’t yeah Min wo maybe something about him just this week like you think about the setup of it the you know the easier power fives we tal you talked about some of it already this week I just think in general you put a guy like him out there it’s like he’s going to win I think agree when’s it going to be we don’t know but when would it make sense something like this just to kick it off I mean that that’s to me what’s going to happen so I think someone like him is fine uh when we get to DFS later but betting wise even you could talk about I think if you you know what is he right now 25 he said uh minwoo I think minwoo I can get at let’s see here so let me pull it up I believe that he’s like 33 no one’s betting on minwoo this week right minwoo yeah 30 to1 so I could boost him up to 37 to1 if I wanted to but I I made this case in my Golf Digest I I played a head-to-head in the Golf Digest because we have to pick one every single week and I took Mitchell over benan because they’re the same guy yeah except benan can kind of chip sometimes but the ball striking for Keith Mitchell is just Uber consistent it’s better than Ben an’s and they both can’t putt so really what’s the difference Mitchell has five top 30 finishes top 20 finishes in his past seven starts like he’s just been very consistent like I do I want to bet on him to win I mean I’d probably bet on him to win over Ben an yeah I I think I would too and I actually like that head tohe head that you got as well so so so he’s 45 to1 M Hughes is 45 to1 and where is he at kle is 55 to one and I can take him up if I I can take all of them up if I want to maybe that’s the route just pick like two or even all three of those guys and just start my card at 45 to one and then yeah I I still I like the mmu one just cuz I think like say if you you know he plays this 40 times against this field with his skill set he’s gonna win it that’s how I see it your guy sunjay is 30 to one yeah I like him too coming off a win time zone difference though Korean win yeah I mean that’s the you know Rory picked up a win last week too by the way Rory and Lowry it’s a team win people will discount it it’s the same for sunjay went over uh back toback though over at that that tournament so good for him but I don’t know I think he was saw wasn’t he 12th the time before out too I think he came 12th just recently SJ yeah he did couldn’t hit his irons though it’s it’s been the irons that have been like a major problem for him you know what someone said SJ slim is the problem I if you noticed it he’s slim it definitely changes your your stuff like your swing changes up so you got to get used to the new spot that you’re in and the body that you’ve got but uh yeah he’s he’s just got to find it and I just think he’s good I think he’s good everyone knows this I have a a intervention required at some point but I I think in in my you know defense I just think it’s what everybody’s always said about the guy they watch him they know all the top Pros say it he’s proven himself enough times he just has to get back to it and I think this is part of the the journey so I’m good with sunj I think I’d be more inclined to bet Tom Kim than sunjay but I think maybe minwoo is the play here I like it like real realistically if you had minwoo at 30 or norin at 25 who’s really betting nor like everyone seems to be betting everyone yeah I was just going to say he’s a great I think he’s a great top 10 BET top 20 bet he’s sort of like the homeless man Xander noren feels better for DFS because he’s 9500 it’s not like he’s 109 like the guy at the top he may not get the job done but he’s like that top 10 play that you talked about whoops you got that set up and then uh versus a guy like SEI wo where we know it’s boom bust and you better hope it’s the boom when he’s coming in at 25 to 30% owned and same when you’re betting them at these odds you you just got to hope that it’s the boom week the P Mayo experience is sponsored by better help sometimes you need to get something off your chest Lord knows I do and one of the biggest things that that can cause is Big stressors in our life whether they’re big or they’re small bottling it all up can really start to affect us very negatively and therapy is a safe space to get things off your chest and figure out how to work through whatever’s weighing you down and it’s helpful for learning positive coping skills and how to set boundaries and really start to affect your life in a positive way and it might even be some stuff that you’re not even really thinking about that you can unlock and really start to improve your life for the better so if you’re thinking about starting therapy give better help a try it’s entirely online designed to be convenient flexible and suited to your schedule just fill out a brief questionnaire to get matched with a licensed therapist and switch therapist at any time for no additional charge if you’re not liking it so get it off your chest with better help visit betterhelp.com Pat Mayo today and get 10% off your first month that’s better help hp.com Pat Mayo let’s talk about DraftKings then and try to win some money this week that would be fun I’d like to win money I would as well I think it’s a good week to do it still again we we know it’s going to be we’ll talk about it here in a second but um just you know getting outside of the common build is going to be the way to go about it this week because not only that but there’s also so many guys in the six and sevenk range that can have those Spike rounds that make it through the weekend that Spike again on the weekend one time and it just becomes a score that you need to have or you know really makes things work so we got to look through it from that perspective as well ceiling wise so in terms of ownership off the Hop what I am seeing is a cluster of guys between 8,800 bucks so basically Keith Mitchell up to SEIU are going to be the highest own guys of the week I don’t know what order they’re exactly going to come in I think that sewo is going to be the highest but if you don’t take sewo you can get get back to that mid sevens level where it does seem like there’s a lot of ownership potentially congesting with gim and Novak and low and Kevin Yu and like being able having the ability to take two of those guys or three of those guys along with the ones at the top so you got hogi norin yagger SEIU Mitchell and benan those guys all going to be incredibly popular I think Mitchell and Anne get squeezed okay because the setup of hogi Jagger norin SEIU and I think I would confidently say SE was going to be number one overall and then after that I mean Adam Scott is no slouch in this as well like I’m not talking 20% for Adam Scott could be like 15 Scott and an get the secondary of that 9k range where people like oh I’m sneaking it up I’m going to this guy instead I’m pivoting but then they still have three other of the same chalk guys and the same build style as everyone else as well so I definitely think you’re right on that and I think for sure when you do get to the eights I think it’s shank over Mitchell but Mitchell only gets squeezed a little bit because you still have Tom Kim Mackenzie Hughes KH Lee guys that are just going to pull little pieces yeah I’m not seeing anything for Mackenzie Hughes I think you’ll be surprised then when lock hits like I I would guess 7% I’ll have double digits on him really so then but that doesn’t actually add up though like when we well it’s because you think me Mitchell and Anne are going to be owned and I don’t I do and I also think Mark hub’s gonna be owned Hubbard’s going to be owned for sure and at 81 so there’s only so many guys you can fit into lineups it’s every every r it’s no okay so the 9k is seu up at the top and then Jagger and hogi down low with norin in the middle the 8K is Mitchell Hugh Mitchell up top Hughes and shank in the middle and hubard down low it’s the same setup so you don’t think that khle mad McNeely get anything not as much as those guys were talking about hubard gets more for sure gets more everyone always plays Aaron Ry don’t forget about him Ry will pull some for sure yeah 8,000 but I I think it’s definitely hubard there and then you also have Sheamus power who do think cracks double digits at the very top of the sevens as well I I just think it’s hard to like when I was building lineups and trying to get a feel for what people are going to do I just found it very difficult to hit that middle of the 8K range unless you were going out of your way to hit it well it’s just because again well we are going we’re about to build a 39K lineup there’s tons of two 29 just run your Optimizer for 150 lineups dry call it dry like you just run the optimizer with no rules no nothing you’re still going to get a ton of lineups that have two 9k guys that add in Shank hubber the GU up the middle so you you separate it that way it stays away from the top still but it doesn’t go to the 39 case so here’s the problem that I was having with some of these builds that you have gim he’ll probably be right around 10% Chan Kim will be you know seven to 10 something like that he’s somewhat popular low Kevin Yu Novak Lashley pendrith those guys are just going to be floating right around double digits like you mentioned like no one’s going to be overwhelmingly popular maybe it turns out out to be Peter Quest maybe it doesn’t I don’t know but other than that like I don’t really see anyone mty Schmidt who you mentioned maybe he ends up getting to 10% so you could throw this is what just to show you like an Optimizer type lineup that’s going to pop up of the most popular guys how we usually start is and we’re going to do the 39K let’s see I I I pre-built one okay what do you got so you say yours and I’ll see if it matches up with what I I I did the 29k one that’s popular and it’s SEIU hogi drops to shank and then you get gim low and Novak to round it out okay so this is very it’s funny cuz the most popular build that I went for this week was sewo with hogi and Adam shank okay Peter Quest Ben Martin and Mark hubard Peter Quest Ben Martin and Mark hubard I figured that like an Optimizer would like Ben Martin this week why well I can see why he’s been like all right at 7K I get it too like that’s possible but that’s sort of the thing like when we go down to the 7K like 7K and below I have no idea what anyone is doing so let’s look at that let me see this one just to compare though I’m going to save that and get an idea so that’s about seven points less than the one that I brought up originally just from projections probably because gim rates out really well yeah of course that’s I was just going to say when we go into the sevens you said it at the top power Hustler gim Griffin those types of guys Peter quest uh low pendrith Novak CT pan like I guess some of these are the projections guys they’re going to pop but my point that I brought up earlier is I actually think we could see a scenario where gim is the highest owned at something like only 12 to 15% and you know usually we’re looking at cases of a 1center versus a 12center and you’re saying okay Nob brainer you know in a vacuum head-to-head whatever I’m going to take that those odds especially but this week I see a lot of guys in that four to s% or 4 to 8% just to throw a range on it where it’s like 8 and 10 or S and 11 or whatever it is like why just take your guy get get who you want to get and get your leverage that way you’re probably getting 15 to 20% of them say whatever the number is there’s lots of ways that you can go there so I don’t hate it from that perspective as well so from that 7K range if that’s going to be the case where you want to take your guys with that who are your guys from that range because I have pan Novak Kevin Yu and Ryan Fox those are like my guys I mean I might have pieces of other people but those are going to be the main guys that I have there’s a Kim in there that I thought you’d be interested in which is it Chan yeah I I like forchan enough but I like Ryan Fox better okay I I like Chan I like Kevin Yu I like laow regardless of that ownership he’s one of my guys that I’ll just get that I’m I’m over on there Sig can make birdies hego I usually don’t play your your guy he’s another one that’s there that you can play uh 7,300 and then dropping down it just depends I like I like toasty and Collie as well toasty can get hot for sure so I think that’s a good one colie’s always your boy he’s there Schmid was one that was you know I don’t know how if he picks up the steam maybe not as much but he was one that stood out sh Kim he satun maybe like there there’s there’s guys at that lower range but the the other thing is no ownership at all but there’s there’s a lot of names in the upper 6K range that I think you could sell yourself on TW Vegas Stanger Chandler Phillips uh Nick Dunlap small there there’s a lot of guy people like Ryan Moore they’re not getting ownership like them saying like people like them but I’m saying you know those names are some that are mentioned and I think You’ be fine going to those guys Parker Cy is at 7K Sam Ryder is at 7K so you see what I mean they’re just not going to get the ownership it’s going to be dispersed but you can see where why it’s going to be dispersed all those names are options so some of the names that I have highlighted from the sixk right now I had TW at 69 lonto at 67 lonto is probably my favorite of all of the plays I like it David skins at 66 guy just pops up every now and then might as well throw him into the mix and then I had briem down at 62 if I really need someone what about Mark Messier that’s your guy M mner that’s why I brought it up I had to put him in there but feel like he was up there too in one of these recent ones but um yeah 6600 I don’t care about that that’s fine Vince Wy 6,500 Joe heith Jacob Bridgeman those are all the same guy Max grer also the same guy yes might just actually be like one guy gets to play three times in a tournament what about Carson young he’s been bad yeah I know like he was good for he had his like eight-month run of being good now he’s just bad again like you got to know when to hop off these guys I think Quaid cumins is that a real guy yeah man Quaid cumins yeah sure Tom Whitney is also one of those creative players except he’s like ruo’s buddy I think Harrison Endicott is he one of those guys I don’t think so I mean he won his tour card panda Panda by the way 6100 oh my God Kisner’s playing in this field too why doesn’t kizner just go to the booth full time I believe uh it was Christopher poers shout out c c Powers he he interviewed him and kizner said he doesn’t want to go out like that he said he you know he hates it you know how it’s sort of his career is rounding out it’s not going the way he wants so he’s got something to prove so if you want to see if he’s going to prove it he’s down there at 6,100 I’d play my guy Panda uh just cuz easy par FES I kind of like that but also did you play Outlaw tour DFS during Co I did not well KK Limba house or whatever is oh that guy’s playing yeah man he got in on a Monday queue too Joel Damon played in some of those events Joel Damon might be a play here too birdies just go out and rack I played Joel Damon last week not not a success yeah I feel like you could just drink a white claw and get away with it during the tournament at this event like no one cares so he he might just be doing that as he rounds the turn but I I think it’s you know again my point being we’ll have our guys we’ll lay them out when we get to our player pools and stuff obviously we build our stuff but this is the reason the ownership in the sevens is the way it is this week which is kind of interesting because we haven’t seen it in a while so there’s no 5K range which we’ve seen season and no one wants to play anyone with a 10 in front of their name that and there’s 41 guys in the 7K range which we haven’t seen in a while all those weeks that we had it it was always all just eight it went from 14 to 16 to 18 to 20 maybe we got to 24 now there’s still a big 6K range but there is 41 guys in the 7K range so maybe gim 12 to 15 but after that it feels very spread out from there and it feels like these balance builds with 9k three 9k guys two 9k guys are the starting point I will say this Pat you you mentioned like Am Pm Stacks with speed day don’t hate that we did that a couple weeks ago we did that with with uh who was it there was another event we did that with where it was like it was just the two random guys at the top that no one was on so we said we’ll go that way but you can leave money on the table hu here like the just you can it’s not to try and find the optimal like oh I saw optimals came out at 46k I’m going to build all my lineups from 45 to 47 I’m just saying there is no real difference in some of these spots of 2K in the difference so if we take a look at let’s try this let’s try building an AM PM so here are some of the guys at the top of the player pool for Am Pm spe and day and sunjay which is ironically like three of the least popular expensive guys this week you mentioned speed’s going to get his ownership I tend to agree with you I don’t see that for Jason day at all not that I want to play Jason day but that’s just the way that it’s kind of shaking out right now because hogi Kim Mitchell and norin are all a part of that wave as well so let’s just try to get a little bit contrarian here because I do think that the most common am stack is going to be norin hogi Tom Kim or Keith Mitchell whatever probably Mitchell over Tom Kim at this point so that would be a starting point for that but H hubard could fall into that mix as well like said so yeah let’s let’s do spe and day let’s try that let’s skip this 9k range with good reasoning okay so that leaves us with $7,100 per player which is not great it’s not but we have to make our plan down low for some of the guys you like that you mentioned already so brem is in the afternoon David skins is in the afternoon TW is in the afternoon Vince Norman at 7,000 who’s a play is maybe a play there let’s throw him in for now just to get us some money mind you that doesn’t get us money our average of 72 you throw him in guess what you still get the same so lonto is a part of the afternoon wave as well so like none of the guys I like down low are actually a part of the morning wave which makes this really difficult for me so I’m trying to see if there’s anyone you mentioned that none at all that pops up and not a single one right so we’d have to play My Guy MC Meisner Jesus Christ you don’t have to I’m saying let’s just keep looking who else would it be so anybody else that you mentioned down here Taran man there’s not a lot if I just go to the model and just go for oh your guy Ben Martin 7,000 there you go there we are so Ben Martin 7,000 and now we get up to an average of 74 is for the last two I accidentally put in Martin trainer don’t want to do that Ben Martin wow that last all by the way not sure how much people tuned into the oh I watched yeah that was uh not great not great not great how you would describe it that’s one way to put it yes so we’re back up to what 73.5 you could go uh you can’t quite get it can you nope you could go Schmid pan Lashley like they’re all a part of you can go pan pendrith you can go pan pend maybe that’s what it is it’s not great but it’s not horrible me I don’t like this lineup whatsoever that’s usually good for trying to win tournaments do you like pendrith or Sig pendrith I do too okay like as someone who has bet Grayson Sig and played Grayson Sig the guy legitimately cannot putt good Showdown good Showdown play yeah like he might go nine under one of these rounds but he’s also real live to shoot a 75 when everyone else is shooting 65 live to shoot a 75 yeah I like that one but don’t you think then that just tells us that it’s more of a sun JM Tom Kim amm build that be more comfortable you just get after obviously you’d have more money but I mean feels like that’s pretty rough what we just built the the reason that I wanted to build this lineup is because I like out of 100% of lineups how many of them do you think are going to be speed day lineups 0.001% like they are the two best players in the field technically I think based on this and what we do it’ll be higher but yes to your point that’s how people will probably get there and that’s why I always talk about the difference between weather stack weather wave stacking and wave stacking are totally different because in this scenario you’re naturally avoiding heavy chalk you’re naturally avoiding the by far top three to four most common roster constructions and you are just also putting yourself on guys at the very bottom that can be the ones that people like well how the hell did you get to this guy when of course he has a career week well the only way you could get to him was when because you decided to start with spe and day which forced you into that range so it’s like a a runoff of things and layers that put you and lead you down that road so that’s one note to make strategy wise so here becomes the problem with this so I changed the lineup I took day out okay so instead of a day spe start it’s now a spe Tom Kim Mac Hugh start problem being we’re back in the exactly the same range again 7,100 for three guys so what do we have before pendri CT pan and Martin can we still get or we can go Vince Norman at seven we could go Ben Martin at seven and then we got 7,500 bucks for Kevin U okay just one second so Martin we had before mhm you said Kevin U yeah and Vince Norman Vincent R Norman that that’s way better I I agree I like this lineup a lot better of note I will say that we had didn’t we have somebody else in there at 7K we had pan and pendrith oh okay so this one actually projects better too so I I don’t hate that but I probably swap Ben Martin to my guy um he said Sun I like this lineup you like Rio instead Hughes yeah not bridg man he’s good too not Parker Cy he’s fine too he’s afternoon though oh is he but your guy Bridgeman would be up there yeah but I don’t know I think this is a better like this is a nice lineup still it’s very you know you’re starting with spe whatever he ends up coming in at you only have one 9k guy a lot of lineups will have two to three in the 8ks you don’t have Mitchell you don’t have uh shank you don’t have hubard or Ry you’ve got Hughes and Hughes probably gets some secondary in there but that’s fine as far as ownership goes and then even if people have you do they really have Rio and Norman probably not that this is this is the nicest one yet it came in about 10 shy of our original chalk build it’s an amm it’s a unique build we could sell people on these guys it does I mean as much as we like ragon spe like I wrote up spe as my betting fade of the week in that Golf Digest column because he was 14 to one right like I I’m not going to bet I kind of made the comparison to M Hughes like M Hughes is essentially playing exactly the same as Jordan spe right now except he’s five times the odds like why would you ever bet on Jordan spe sneak but that’s also not to say that spe can’t win this tournament he can’t he is the best player here it just depends on what happens what you know we we do this every week this guy sucks he can’t show up there’s no way everyone just watched the Masters and said all these guys that sucked at the Masters won’t do good the next week it was like huge made Cut Rate lots of guys at the top of the was like actually maybe that time away and get the stress of a major Augusta National Golf Club all that out of the way and then they go play pretty good the next week out so it’s just I don’t care about that stuff ever I just think this build is nice it has a strategy to it it’s not going to be a common roster construction and all these guys like spe Tom Kim probably the guys I could see winning Matt Hughes could show up and be in the top five no problem and then those other three can really score and we’ve seen uh dou R Norman get his win at a tournament like this as well what you can also do so you can trade in if you want the Ben Martin Ryu spot with spe and turn that into Mitchell and hogi all right so let’s do that Mitchell so your most expensive player ends up becoming Tom hogi at 99,100 bucks so you go $99,100 Tom hogi $99,000 Tom Kim 8,800 Keith Mitchell 8600 mck Hughes and then Ben Martin and Kevin Yu yeah this is another probably the third most common build yes let’s say but in a much more uh in a much more unique way when you speak of it because like let’s say Mitchell gets the secondary and Hughes gets the secondary Tom Kim is still behind some of these other guys and hogi you and Norman just can’t be so like this to me projects really well 99 8877 keeps the 10 way keep the sixes away but you don’t have a lot of the chalk that’s there this week what what I would say that the more common version of this bu would be would be turning Kim into norin and Hughes into hubard because I think that’s a perfect 2v2 yeah let’s do that so Kim into norin so yeah what was it yeah Kim into norin up to 95 yeah yeah that works I think that’s a like legitimate perfect 2v2 and the original version of it that we just had projected better really so that’s that’s the interesting part I wonder if that’s due to Tom Kim’s perceived win Equity most likely yeah or M Hugh is over hubard I mean MC Hugh has what three career wins also I’m using ship at Nation projections use cod Mayo get a discount but I’ll say that that uh Tom Kim is looking better there for that reason as well and obviously in our course fit rankings he’s doing quite well also so um I’ll cheuck in your guy Vince Norman instead of Ben Martin as well that’s what I did I like that lineup yeah that that’s what I put but that a good 2v2 that you found and that’s what people should be looking at right and which ones you know while you’re sticking on the same thing you just gave yourself a pretty good ownership decrease overall um product ownership goes down everything’s solid so I think that that is a better version the one that we have previous so if we tried to build the chalki version of this Am Pm I mean this probably isn’t it because it would start with speed and people just aren’t starting with speed I think that if they were going to do the chalk version of this they would start norin Mitchell or norin hogi I think it’s norin hogi with Mitchell hubard with Mitchell hubard yeah but if we go spe norin to start that drops us to 74 immediately well that’s why I think Keith Mitchell could get squeezed cuz I think people play hubard no matter what and he’s under the average price what can you go spe noren hogi Hubbert or no I mean you can I mean how much are we get I mean is it realistic no you’re down to 6.2 yeah I don’t know if spe gets into it man I think it’s still I agree but that’s why I was trying to think like if you want to play norin I have a feeling that norin is either going to be the first man into a lot of lineups or he’ll be the second with sewo is there a guy 6.8k that would be popular no not or anybody in there no maybe Bryce Garnett no I don’t see it maybe Ryan like the optimizers will like Ryan more I guarantee you you think yeah his stats are good I guess but he’s afternoon in this build so we were just trying to see I think norin hogi will be the start gim gim’s in the AM yeah gim would for sure be in there and then we have to start balancing like I think hubard more than Mitchell so I went with hubard that leaves around 7,800 for two guys in the morning you can have yeah your guy Ben Griffin’s in there it’s just tough to then find what’s next is well no I I think I think it kind of opens itself up here you go either I guess it’s Matt Hughes with whoever you think at 7K or you go Kevin U or Peter Quest or Justin lower oh youu let’s let’s see what U does let’s try this putting Kevin U and that gets us to MAV mcne I think or it gets us to 81 no it dri were one short so okay so if I put in Kevin U it’s funny all those guys were exactly 7,500 bucks 81 let’s change hubard out to Mitchell hubard to Mitchell and then that lands us on 74 which is Taylor pendrith Or Sig yeah this is the more popular version and IT projects good yeah it just makes it make sense so it’ be norin hogi Mitchell gim pendrith and that Kevin pendri yeah or you could be you could be cuz they’re all 7500 could be Quest or could be low all those guys are 75 and all relatively popular so that’s where the and that’s a good point you just brought up that we didn’t touch on earlier is the youest not even PM not even just the fact they’re all am that’s just random it worked out that way but U Quest low pendrith is a common Landing Zone just looking at some builds earlier and last night and stuff coming into this where you’re Landing in that spot quite often and having to make those decisions on that and am cannot be your tiebreaker cuz they they so so we talk about this a lot what if we just play them all that’s a good call and so we’ll play Quest you and low because no one’s doing that they’re picking one of those three it sounds like and then you go hogi Mitchell and you got 9600 bucks norin so instead of trying to squeeze in gim or hubard whoever it might be you just play those three with the three top chalk guys and although this is probably an incredibly chalky lineup I don’t think the people get to this maybe they do Maybe I’m Wrong they can still get to it but it’s just a matter of like do you still have separation within this it’s a 29k 18K with three sevens and I I don’t like this lineup but I could see this what if we take noren and hogi out and Mitchell okay and add pendrith go one more go all four of them that we mentioned leaves you 10.1 then you can go spe hogi if you want Oh day sunj now that’s a lineup right there there we go now with the four Dudes so you don’t have to pick from the four Dudes and you get two different guys up top that are both in the AM and any day sunj lineup can be spe with hogi because we’re staying am on it would be Jagger as well but hogi there you go so I get the sense that building a PM type of wave is going to be way more fun and as we pointed out if there are no delays I do think the PM gets the better of it yeah well this also should be more common because we start with SEIU yeah and then you definitely put in I think see so let’s just let’s just throw in some of the guys that are a part of this wave just so we can get the names out there for people you don’t have to play all these guys obviously right uh and it looks like dri is going to get squeezed as well my numbers really like dri mhm so instead of shank maybe D Tree ends up becoming the move or you just play both those guys together I think people are definitely playing shank but I like dri as well are you going to play a lot of sewo no I don’t think I am either it’s just the the factor of what I was talking about like you like guys that are boom bust like that but typically when we’re talking about it’s guys like theala at 8600 or Max Homa at 9k or 8,900 something like that at least with them feel like you have the the prices built around it where you could still get away with it here it feels like sew is most people’s starting point and so it makes it a lot tougher because it’s again other guys can win underneath him and he can just do his job but you are you are paying way up for a boom bust guy that I’m going to use him in like PM lineups and stuff that makes sense and try and get different that way but um probably not a lot overall just because the ownership I’m just not going to be able to get there so let’s try this one we start with minwoo benan dietre shank and that gets us back to that level that we were trying to build earlier but now we switched to the PM side now and we have I mean I have guys that I like down here you can go lonto Novak I think boom easy game Novak and lonto lonto Griffin is 6700 he is all right not bad still all these project good too still good and no I mean no one’s going to have this version of it till they do now but minwoo with benan you’re playing the 29k build but you’re doing it in a PM am only lineup not many people full stack and fading seaw and then you’re fading SE W and even though you have two NES two eights you don’t have any of the main guys that we talked about like hogi Jagger CWU you don’t have Mitchell you don’t have um hubard you you don’t have a lot of those guys you don’t have gim in the 7K range you you don’t have any of the chalk in there so you can get away with this so I might full fade SEIU I might full fade Jagger as well so what does that leave me with what do you make of Adam Scott I usually like him it’s a lot of money for Adam Scott who’s just not been good right and I just don’t know if the he has to get squeezed too to me I I agree like SEI wo norin even the minwoo talk and I don’t think it’s going to be high but it’s like people you know eventually takes a little bit away from him benan Jagger hogi it just can’t be and what do I always say about Adam Scott this is kind of the inverse of what I mentioned earlier with SEI wo I know I’m paying up for a boom bust I know Adam Scott’s probably not going to win either but but I like Adam Scott in the weaker Fields because a lot of his history and his past is always based on how he always just a top 30 guy if you want a top 30 pay 9600 for it well not necessarily the case he’s always played in the hardest Fields the strongest sorry the strongest Fields the hardest courses the biggest events this is not that so we see spots like this where he does show up so I actually kind of like him this week at 9600 okay so I’ll leave Scott in so I’ll remove sewo and remove Jagger from my player pool of the PM so that means but the most expensive guy that I can use is Adam Scott now at 9600 bucks so you could build a Scott minwoo benan lineup if you wanted to that leaves some of the guys in the eights dietre who I mentioned shank who I bet so obviously I like him and KH Lee who I do like and I’m considering betting at the same time as well then it’s like Jake knp Sheamus power Ryan Fox Novak Bud colie like and then some of the guys in the sixes that I mentioned being skins brem if you really like need losers to fill out your lineup or you get Kevin TW and lonto near the top there so it’s interesting how you can kind of finagle those lineups around I think to make something a little bit more unique than we’ve been you know we we tried to build the chalky versions of these things but could we fit in Scott let’s go can we go Scott shank dietre KH Lee like I think that’s 38s your team is completely different and we still have 7,400 bucks left you could theoretically if we use lonto let’s say or TW let’s use TW in this one just to change it up a bit we’re back up to 8,000 which gives us Jake nap so you have four eights with a nine in Kevin TW yeah I was just gonna say that I kind of like that build too that’s definitely different nap is also going to be lower owned than Ry in that spot for sure and MAV and hubard and Sheamus power and Ry is also afternoon there yeah interesting okay so yeah that’s for 8K alone would be different one thing I was going to talk about too you I just never I thought about this today when you mentioned it earlier I wanted to wait till we got to lineup building but you trust again it’s a long shot bet no one gives a [ __ ] I get it but brem if you’re trusting him for that like brem you can start he’s a PM guy he fits here you’re betting him to win you definitely don’t need him to win that’s the best part he could you could even miss your eway like we always do and he gets t11 and you’re like oh that sucks but that’s really good for DFS so the guys that you were trusting on betting like brem KH Lee to start a lineup and now you have almost 9k average left over who are some of the other guys that you bet again that you so we considered minwoo he’s afternoon who’s another guy that you bet that’s PM up here shank shank that’s right I mean this is just very similar to the lineup that we just built oh you like drie though right I like d Tre enough I’m not going to bet d3e no who is another guy that you bet that’s a little bit lower anybody lower on the DraftKings board pricewise I mean uh Fox who is PM so fox now we have 10K yeah so this is your lineup even though you don’t love sewo but were playing a sewo lineup he’s got the best he’s like the betting favorite now it’s seiw with minwoo and then you drop into the AK and get shank and KH Lee and it really doesn’t matter any of that chalk that you’re say oh that’s two of these guys well we’re rounding it out with Ryan Fox and Ryan brem Double R the Ryan squared that is only about 10 points off the chalky lineup that we originally projected so I think that’s really the key here and the interesting point of this week that when we go through all this stuff no one is projecting well it’s not like sheffler is in here so you build sheffler lineups which you’re just inherently going to project 20 points better CU he’s so much better all these like just kind of hearken back to the point that I made earlier that I don’t see that big of a differentiation between spe and M Hughes I bet you the projections don’t show it either I’m sure they like spe more like in overall raw points but I doubt it’s like that big of a gap no it’s so you know 15 or somewhere in that range 12 to 15 points and that’s it’s golf and there’s streaks and there’s Eagles and there’s who knows Albatross and stuff like that like should happen so I think that that was my point earlier which is insane to say but it’s what is it 86 or 96 I mean $2,300 it’s the same dude probably to be honest um Hughes I should note has been I said I tried to mention it quickly earlier but he’s been sneaky good lately he’s got like five top 30s in his last six with one Mis cut only and some of them were top 20s so uh with good finishes so I mean like this guy is fine and he’s been good on the easier power fives I know people think that he’s always like a you know hard go I can only play him when it’s he’s not he’s just a grinder well it’s not true as well like that’s another situation so to your point it it makes sense from that perspective and you could just leave that money on the table and take your best speed lineup and drop it down to MC Hughes and call it a day Additionally you can change SEIU and bremond to skins and Scott if you want to sewo and brim into David skins and Adam Scott skins and Scott trying to see norlander rates out really well but I feel like he hasn’t played at all and he was terrible with Luke list on Sunday terrible yeah some of those teams you know what newlanders mean what did he finish last week would they end up coming top 10 right as a team I think they were T9 I think they were up there yeah so he hasn’t played much he’s only played four times this year outside of the team event t36 at corales missed the cut in Houston but gained four strokes on approach in Houston in two rounds lost seven strokes putting that’s not great 15th of Puerto Rico 13th of Mexico maybe Norland was a play you can fit him in for skins yeah I say I went down just to sort in my short-term modeling of all these guys in the 6K range who were the guys who were the best rated norlander is actually the best what if we do a norlander brim lineup oh my God you what would be the point just to leave 3,000 on the table that’s I’m just trying to see if there’s anything that makes sense uh Kelly craft actually rates out incredibly well too I get sucked into this so much o KH Lee or seiw Kim here you go so SEIU Scott minwoo that’s a different 39K guy lineup okay say it again sewo Scott minu yeah and then you get shank norlander Bram norlander brim the thing is you your bets typically believe that five of those guys could something and if norlander ends up being the play well I mean I’m putting I’m putting a lot of faith into a 400 to1 Ryan brem here I I get it and we don’t think he’s winning it’s that’s why we said we get it that it’s just a long shot bet that you’re throwing a few bucks on and whatever happens happens but all the time it happens where it’s like oh he was kind of in the mix what happened oh he just fell apart a little bit over the weekend all right that’s fine but can he still pay off $6,200 the way that he got there and then you’ve got a bunch of other dudes that you like so interesting to look at it only projects like six seven points less than some of those other builds because you’ve built in Kim Lee um sorry seu Kim minwu Lee Adam Scott and then Adam shank still is up there as well and then the 6K guys still got to put up points it’s not going to be as much but they’re going to put something up so let’s take out SEIU and brm as a part of this just to see how this rates that guys in the after the guys in the morning the guys in the morning all these guys are in stupid morning bud col’s there good for him toasty we’ll use toasty and leave some money on the table we haven’t put toasty into any of these these lineups and he’s someone I do like this week so we take out sewo and Bram and turn them into drie and toasty yes and is there anyone at 89 88 no no you got your guy that’s that makes sense yeah so how much worse does that project it act it projects Five Points better than what we just looked at okay because it does I mean but you’re not getting norlander and him that’s why no but it’s just norlander which is better off and also norlander can now go back to a guy you liked a little bit more it could go to lonto lonto who you liked better and that’s projecting better that’s actually a good lineup too Pat you’ve got two 9ks 2 8ks a seven and a six Scott minwoo start then you got the the Australian start right you got Scott minwoo dietre shank toasty and lonto Griffin so I I think the conclusion that I’m going to make on this for people trying to differentiate their lineups this week is that if you can get yourself comfortable with two or three guys or even a pool of guys between 67 and 71 your lineups are going to be so much different than everyone else’s because everyone is just falling in that 73 to 76 range and taking three two or three four four spots there that’s why we talked about the strategy wise lumping them all together is different than everybody else is making a decision between them and then the secondary or it could be the first and that’s the secondary would be just skipping that range altogether skipping a a range of guys so 73 to 77 Doug gim down to whoever that’s where you can get different and you’re naturally then you can do kind of whatever you want up top for the most part well let’s see what you want to do because we got to have the head-to-head draft you beat me last time I won the monies yes at the Heritage finally got it done yeah hogi hogi blew it for me good he he made the Quint Tipple bogey on the final hole and that dropped me below you that that that that hole cost me so much money it was incredible that was like the start of the Year this year when I had Sam Burns and seu both just dox insane things in the last three holes when everyone’s trying to people were congratulating me on a fantasy Golf World Championship ticket like it was a runaway NOP they lose all those position Points Plus those scores everything it’s just the worst so all right let’s do this draft so since you won you go first right or is it I go first I go first cuz I won but I only get the one pick and then I round it at the end so I’m going to start with Jordan spe okay and I will take ma Hughes and Adam shank boo I was about to take Hughes I’m sorry can’t take him I took him all right then I’m gonna take I’m not playing a PM am or Am Pm for this I’m just picking guys that I like it’s usually what I do it’s been good for me so far all right what are we doing here man spe is who I have now let me look down the board I need to pick two guys from this range h it’s just it’s kind of like because you know what you’re setting yourself up for later that’s really why it’s more tricky than usual than just saying pick two guys but I’m trying to look at it here let me go sunj as my second one in and now I’ll drop down and look for Value I’m going to go with uh low lower yeah spe to start you had your two guys now I got M low okay and I will go ah that doesn’t work let’s take feel like hogi is gonna miss the cut just the aura that I get he’s either gonna win or miss the cut those feel like his two outcomes could be a week to just fade everybody over 15% and just you know hope to get lucky see see what that see what happens there because it doesn’t feel like great chalk no it doesn’t and I mean we didn’t really talk about norin all that much but I do really like norin like as especially as a DraftKings player I think that you know T t17 to T8 is very much in the mix for Alex norin this week so I have Hughes and shank I’ll take noren and Novak okay and I will take I think I’m more ready this time I will take Rio and Kevin Yu ah [ __ ] well throws a wrench into my plans well you did it to me I had Kevin you in there so now what do I do I’ll take KH Lee at $8,300 and Ryan Fox at 76 and all round out with TP Canadian guy Taylor pendrith so your team is I have spe sunj so 10 n and then none of those chalky nine guys no 8K guys and I’ve got low you pendrith he set Sun at at 7K to round it out no 6K guys and I am there what what do you have again I have noren yeah Hughes shank KH Lee in the eth so a 938k build okay with Novak and Ryan Fox 74 and 76 what Does the Fox Say me me okay and you have uh the rounded out guy was Novak Novak was my final guy oh you got me this week 11 points that’s not good that’s not good I don’t like when I’m projected to win I never win when I’m projected to win we both went pretty unique setups on our lineups because mine was 109 with no 9k chalk and none of the 8K guys plus no um gim or anything like that in the upper sevens you went with a nine three 8ks and two sevens and well we both landed on one guy sort of in that range like you got Novak I got pendrith I got you actually I have two it’s not overdoing it really for what we built and Mine by the way was a PM that I built as well was it okay so to just to kind of circle back to what we did at the very beginning of this I do think that the main head-to-head lineup that most people are going to roll out with this week is going to be SEIU hogi shank gim Quest Novak yeah and I had it as still the highest projected to all the lineups that we did I have it close it was SEIU hogi then it went down to shank then gim laau Novak and Novak and low and those guys could switch around as we saw but to your point we’re pretty similar yeah and you could take shank up to norin if you wanted to and you could drop quest to norlander if that’s you want to get a little bit crazier because I feel like that there’s not that there’s safety in Alex norin but I think that people perceive him that way and if you can start SEIU hogi norin as your 9k guys I think that’s a path that people want to take then you get gim Novak and norlander in there so there’s no lower there’s no U and there’s no Quest at the $7,500 level you just avoid those three guys and just drop one down to nor orlander to get hogi instead of shank man I was so close what did you ever build a theme lineup like like a what if we went on a viking Quest and we had Norman norlander and quest to start the lineup who do we have at the top is the problem it’s where does the qu it’s you got to think does it end up in South Korea with SEIU sunj and I guess you could put Benny Anne in there at at 9300 how many people do you think are going to play the Kim lineup just for the luls a lot of people there there’s six of them and it works you leave $3,300 on the table you get SEIU Tom Cham Michael sh and Chris Kim from England oh God who is a real person apparently uh what if it goes to austral where’s is minmo is New Zealand minmo is Australian Ryan Ryan Fox is a kiwi ah you can’t quite get to Jason I was trying to get Jason day Adam Scott and Min wo Lee to round it out and your Viking Quest could end up in Australia that’s where the quest brings you that’s where the quest the former penal colony of England Australia yeah but if you put norin in here for the Triple nor on the quest it leaves you 9800 which is SEIU and sunj that could be the one there you go all right we tried that just for the fun of it do you know how many crimes it would take to send you to the penal colony of Australia I do not is 19 there’s a shitty wine that I actually somewhat enjoy called 19 crimes all right it’s very sugary though I had to stop was gaining some weight when I was getting the old gullet when I was drinking 19 crimes I had to upgrade to a less sugary wi you got to get you on Jeopardy that was a good one well because my wi my wine knowledge coming through with you need a certain category of course that would be able to pull it off Wine Australia and wine but nothing to do with Australian wine although that probably I would guess that is an Australian wine you just get lucky and golf is another topic up there something getting lucky in golf hey I can do that that I have a lot of experience with you have experience of winning some of these gpps and doing really well and all your members doing well over at shipit nation.com as well so you can use code Mayo over at ship atntion and you’re in the Discord you got your player pools the core stat rankings y outside of it was was it pendrith and Norman this week or was it just pendrith pendrith was up there for sure dou R Norman is up there Tom Kim is up there those are the corfit rankings Lee does a great job with those obviously him over from fan share Sports awesome guy does that stuff every week for us but we just went through it the projections the ownership the stone everything with the degenerate 75 merger shout out to our guy James getting healthy talked to him yesterday he’s working on I talked to him this weekend too awesome man yeah just good stuff he’s really in good spirits as he always is but nice to see he’s battling back wants to get back for the PJ Championship to do a couple of streams that week but huge announcement today at shipit nation.com 2:30 p.m. Eastern and you can go back and watch it on replay if you don’t catch it live no only live can’t watch on replay and you should use code Mayo because you’ll want to lock in the best price possible for sure so lot lots of good stuff coming up at ship Nation if you didn’t check it out I interviewed the guy Chris Hearn that won the Millie maker at the Masters that’s on the channel as well just go to the shipit nation YouTube station under videos leave a comment there congratulating him it could be something in that for you as well but a lot of good things going on right now shipit nation.com code May gets you a discount did he credit me for winning cuz I would take that credit I don’t know was he like hey Pat made these picks and they were all terrible so what I did was did the opposite of those and I won a million bucks that’s a very viable strategy this year I don’t know man people calling the the Mayo pick Mayo equals money yeah but I’m back into coming second place in every tournament again Millie Mak Mayo sounds perfect if we could get that to tag and Tambo and Millie Mak Mayo listen I I’ll forgo the nickname if I just win the million bucks that’s something that I would like to do what else would you forgo for the million that’s right people are asking that so yeah I I think it’s good but uh lots of good things going on this was fun breaking it down getting back in studio with you and everyone you know hates on these events it is what it is there’s still money to be won we talked through some good strategies and there’s a huge run of amazing events coming up right now you sign up for anything you’ve got I’ve got anything like that you’re going to get the PGA Championship uh sign up that week you’ll get right through to the US Open so get in now check it out get used to it and then stick with it yeah fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself the simulations the lineup Builder the ownership projections and it gives you access to the best leaderboard app going fortunately PGA Championship uses shot link so we will have that in the app as well the US open’s going to be tricky mhm tricky on that front last week people were so mad but they’re testing it out for coming up In fairness there was no app that worked last week right that’s fine yeah so we we still get our information from shotlink we just happened to get it faster than the PGA Tour app and we have it presented a lot easier now finally for you the week to to try it out yes I I did download the first step to get like that test pilot thing you need to then get to it so this will be the week to try it out for sure so that’s just included in a membership at as a part of fantasy National code Mayo at Underdog fantasy you can get in the draft we’ll try to fill up the pme classic it’s completely Rak free so if you’re going to invest you can do that best Ball Mania live as well I’m going to start having shows on that ASAP for all you big football fans out there Derby show already recorded with Rosa and cam dropping tomorrow who is it you want to bet way and means at the Kentucky Oaks at 7 to1 yeah and then two horses at 10 to1 and 14 to1 the Kentucky Derby and I parlayed them together too so so good watching that every year so I’m excited we had a lot of fun yeah probably not the great I mean Ross I mean cam does know his horses the guy bets on a lot of horse racing and gets excited we love that he does he made unfortunately the microphone that he uses really drowns out his horse sound effects so maybe when we get him in studio one day it will work out a little bit better on that front but Underdog fantasy code Mayo get yourself that deposit match of up to 100 bucks we’ve been running train on the UFL props just really boosting everything up I’ve been tailing meanie NHL playoff stuff and cleaning up on that front as well and I’ll have the official PGA play for Thursday in the newsletter along with all the final bets and all of the final info that you need for the CJ cup Byron Nelson this week as well I’m Pat Mayo thank you all for watching smash the like I’ll see you next time experience experience
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
00:54 1st Thoughts on Pricing
6:33 Underdog Draft
13:22 Weather
18:46 Bets
22:55 One and Done
29:08 DraftKings/Lineups
40:14 AM/PM
54:15 PM/AM
1:06:13 H2H DK Draft
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Love the roster constructions segments you guys do. Thanks for the content and pro delivery.-Gup460. Ship it
Pat – MGM has Ryan Brehm @ 400X
Man, I love.
This show I love the way that information just flows out of your doing those lineups